Recapping the month of April for precious metals investors
Brian Leni joins me today to recap the month of April when it comes to his investments in metals stocks. We also discuss what Brian thinks provides the best upside in terms of the types of metals stocks he is buying.
Great Bear was the top of the class in the miners today above $1. Everyone hanging onto shares for the 1 for 4 royalty spin out ending Monday. 2-4 years from now , most would be wishing they had more.
Like who are the real crooks…………….the ones trying to get the money, or the ones distributing the money…..
https://www.zerohedge.com/bailout/doj-finding-early-signs-fraud-companies-applying-covid-stimulus
Now to see who is the grand champion going forward, SILVERCREST OR Great Bear., They are One – Two in my basket, dollar wise, I’m still betting on Silvercrest.
Marty, you are correct, for the Silver’s (SILV) Silvercrest has been top-in-class, and for the Gold’s (GBR) Great Bear has been top-in-class, and both will likely still climb higher from here, as both will have economic deposits that will become future mines.
However, at this point, some of the smaller Jr miners that haven’t already moved so high and to such large valuations as SILV and GBR may actually run more in the next metals move on a percentage basis.
SILV Silvercrest has a $816 Million market cap already and isn’t in production yet.
GBR Great Bear has a $458 Million market cap already and doesn’t even have any real economic studies finished yet.
Again, both have been stellar performers, but there is likely more opportunity for upside moves in some of the smaller producers with upside exploration potential, or some of the other developers with known deposits and exploration upside that haven’t moved nearly so high yet.
Wishing you good fortune in your investing!
BTW – I’ve traded in and out of SILV Silvercrest 3 times in the last month and really like the company and story, but took the profits from those trades and am considering adding to other Silver positions as they pullback, but may throw one more tranche back in Silvercrest just for their takeover potential.
I don’t think there is enough money to take out SILV, OTHER THAN someone like Blackrock. SILV isn’t going to be some 40-60% premium, from here, it may take a 3-5 bagger from here, and might be a steal at a 3 bagger, given the bonanza grades being uncovered, with only 30 % of the property tested yet, and little at depth, and money in the bank & permits to be a mill in less than 2 years. I remember I sold my Aurelian shares @ $16, only to go to $40 something. When I bought 1K at the time @$.62, Keith Barron was appearing on Puplavas Financialsense.com at least quarterly in 2000 something. Back then Schwab commission online was 19.95. My biggest winners were Mindfinders & Western Silver, both 30 bagger+. I held on to Minefinders til the end of the takeover.
Anyone listened to Tfmetalsreport.com with Andrew Maguire. There always is a sensational element, this time Maguire is saying a reset in gold is imminent
Hi Marty, SILV may still be a 3 bagger from here as you mentioned, because of the high grade & exploration potential and I sincerely hope they are. However, they don’t necessarily need to be taken over with cash, and more likely would be taken over with another larger producer’s paper shares (like SSR mining). A wise suitor would grab them for a 40-60% premium before they go up another 300%, so I see a takeover/merger as still very much on the table.
My point about putting a tranche on for the takeover was implying riding up the remaining upside from their exploration of other veins until the get scooped up by one of the big boys.
I also believe many of the Silver and Gold companies that haven’t already moved so much will be more like 5-10 baggers and have the ability to go up many more multiples starting from current levels at much lower market caps.
May your investing be very prosperous sir. Your stock picks are always some of the best quality names on here and I appreciate your input. 🤑🚀
I have owned both Sil and GBR and sold most of my cheap shares and put them in others like Ex mentioned. I hold my “core” shares as still feel there is more to be earned. I also wanted those GBR sin out shares. I would like to have more Silv shares as I am still waiting on the silver move. The criminals continue to block any move despite physical shortages at the comex and several indications that the paper price system is having some serious credibility issues. So I think silver has all kinds of room to move and GBR still is a ways from proving what could be a very large resource. I am betting on both as well as anything Ex likes.
Thanks David, and good points on trimming some of the gains to deploy in other Jr miners that haven’t run as much yet.
Yes, the muted moves in the Silver miners, and the less than stellar action in “poor man’s Gold” has been a bit vexing, but Silver’s time will come. I felt Jim Wyckoff made that point well in the interview below.
I may add SILV back as a safer bet in my portfolio and hope they continue knocking it out of the park with the other veins they still need to explore.
I’m interested in any stocks you have on your radar as well David, as like Marty, you continually have solid names in your portfolio.
I personally like taking on a few riskier smaller cap producers, developers, and explorers in my portfolio in addition to just holding the more solid higher flying established mining stocks. As a result, some of them have warts and issues, but if they can solve those challenges over time, then they get treated much higher, outperforming the higher quality and more widely followed names. Then again, if they don’t overcome their challenges then they can stagnate or crash down. I like having the solid names and royalty cos for steady growth, but then the “best of the worst” ugly ducklings for upside torque and reratings in a rising metals price environment.
Ex:
Not sure where I left off, so I will mention some adds or new stuff I’ve been doing. I am thinking I am doing too much musical chairs while waiting for the big move that never happens. Anyway: Aston Bay I toss beer money in, but this week moved some to Northern Shield. Bought Azarga this week. Second time buy on Contact Gold last week. Added GR Silver after PR. Add Group Ten Metals. Sold EMX to make second buy of Sailfish. Bought Jaguar for second time. Bought MacDonald Mines. Added Mako. Bought Mawson Resources. Added Precipitate after partial sale. Added Theralase. Added Vizsla.
David great list of companies. I had a position in Aston Bay but gave up a year ago as they were flat-lining, but I’ve seen Eric Coffin more vocal about them again.
I have a position in Northern Shield as well and hope they make the discovery of a lifetime, but will get on with it already. Ian is slow to release newsflow at times…. but holding.
Interesting on Contact Gold, so I’ll need to take a closer look. I was thinking it was just a flavor-of-the-month drill play, but honestly don’t know much about it.
Yes I need to check out GR Silver closer as well. I’ve had a few folks over at ceo.ca banging on my door in private chats about it.
I also have a position in Group Ten Metals – big fan of their project next to stillwater, as well as the project next to Nickel Creek Platinum, where Greg Johnson was the old ceo, and knows that area well.
I like EMX as well, but sold out of my position on the Russian base metals play news, and I also have a nice position in Sailfish Royalties. Y
Yes, Jaguar Mining, a nice turnaround story in the small to almost medium sized Gold producers. Now they they got rid of their hedges and Gold has spike, I expect things will be improving for them.
MacDonald mines, interesting… I was thinking they were a Jordan Roy-Byrne pick at one point, but haven’t looked in a while.
Mako Mining – yes, one of the highest grade open pit mines in development, and if it wasn’t for the jurisdiction risk in Nicaragua, it would already be 2-3 times higher if it was in Canada or the US.
Mawson, mentioned I’d looked at them years ago, and felt they had too many different commodities they were chasing at once, but I believe they’ve become more focused and need to re-look.
Precipitate Gold – Yes, and with the Barrick strategic investment, it was a big vote of confidence. Bob Moriarty is a fan, and I’m holding it as a lottery ticket.
Vizsla, I just started a position on the recent pullback, and waiting to see how things go proving out their resource when it is a prior-producing mine, and there is already some infrastructure in place. It is an interesting Silver explorer/developer to keep an eye on.
“Serious damage” To Emerge; Gold Prices Yet To Show True Colors
Apr 30, 2020 – Kitco News #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
Economic data has not yet reflected the true scale of the economic disaster we are facing, but as numbers come out in the coming weeks, a risk-off sentiment could ensue, this according to Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco.
“We have big risks still ahead for the U.S. economy and for other economies around the world,” Wyckoff told Kitco News. “We are going to start to see economic data in the U.S. and in Europe show up that’s going to be really staggering, to remind us how serious the damage has been done to the global economy.”
I’ve already weighed the risks. All debt base currencies have enormous risks and I’m all in no matter what happens to the market. Even if gold prints $800 I don’t have a choice.
It’s going to be fast and furious when these debt-based currencies fail. DYX, I’m still wondering how long I’ll be able to buy a loaf of bread with it. The market’s going to flip on a dime and might happen all over a weekend.
Yes, history has demonstrated over and over again that all debt-based currencies eventually have their buying power eroded down to the point where it hurts it’s citizens, they revolt, a new currency is launched and the game starts all over again.
As for Gold, it is really the “un-currency”, carries no debt or counter-party risk, and has been a stable store of wealth for thousands of years.
It won’t be different this time either…. Currencies will devolve, and Gold will float higher holding onto it’s purchasing power relative to the other currencies.
As gold goes higher, other currencies are intrinsically less valuable — (that is likely why Gold has made all times highs in almost every currency on the planet in the last 1-2 years, and is near all time highs in Dollar terms).
Milkshakes, Sugar Highs, and Gold: A Response to Brent Johnson’s Milkshake Theory
Roy Sebag – Goldmoney Insights (03/12/2020)
“The #dollar and #Gold cannot rise “together” when measured as Gold/USD. This statement, being a contradiction, is logically false. When Gold rises in dollars, the dollar is, by definition, losing purchasing power.”
“Either the dollar gains purchasing power against gold, or gold gains purchasing power against the dollar. The dollar is not defined as “a share of the S&P 500” or “equities” but, rather, it is defined as 1 unit of what it is in itself: a dollar.”
Excelsior, Brent Johnson I have a lot of respect for him. Although, to be honest it’s nice to hear different opinions I’ve been around this business too long and everything must be taken with a grain of salt. I haven’t read the article regarding the milkshake theory discounting Brent’s analysis it’s just more sales pitching because these people always come out with something different from the next guy to sell subscriptions so people need to beware with regard to Brent’s milkshake theory sales pitch. Thanks for the good information it just proves how people promote everything and it’s just a big promotion out there that’s all it is. LOL
Someone’s actually selling gold related products out there I immediately tune it out. There’s an enormous amount of hype and disinformation out there. It’s the best and easiest way to lose money.
Josey Wales – Agreed, almost everyone has biases, and some are biased to promote their products or sell subscriptions like Roy or pitch investors to get into their managed funds like Brent.
Both are actually very sharp guys, and it is interesting to see where they agree and disagree philosophically/economically.
Brent’s Milkshake Theory is that the US Dollar will get so strong and become the great attractor, and will suck up a great deal of the world’s capital, along with
Gold and US Stocks, as investors flee other asset classes. Brent also postulates in his models and examples, that one that invested in the general markets for retirement they would be better off than investing in Gold, although both tracks would yiesl positive results.
Roy takes issue with the specific years and entry dates Brent selected for his model which are cherry picked to reinforce his theory, and Roy makes a good point about Brent using an index returns (which is just a spreadsheet) versus an actual index fund or ETF that would have management fees and slippage due to this that would change the delta greatly in Brent’s models, and makes a few other points relative to currencies versus real money (gold) that actually tip the scales back in the favor of Gold.
Roy summarizes: “The work that I have completed in this paper sufficiently demonstrates that even an aggressive approach (the 80-year-old with 80% allocation to gold) is overwhelmingly superior for the majority of the global population. When eliminating hand-picked year-over-year performance and flawed retirement models, we can see clearly that gold outperforms global equity markets in USD and in all other currencies.”
My takeaway is that both guys are sharp, both make valid cases for why Gold and Equities go up over time, and I have a portfolio full of both. My philosophy when trying to decide between buying 2 different assets that I believe may both perform well, is to just buy both. 🙂
I was not surprised to see Brent lose his bet with Peter Schiff (that cost him a gold coin).
Frankly, Brent is a buffoon…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hT32GoZNCaw&t=16s
Yeah, I had watched that Katusa-moderated debate between Peter Schiff & Brent Johnson right after that Cambridge House conference and enjoyed it.
Now you got me watching it a 2nd time though….
I generally agree with Peter more, but thought Brent & Marin made a few good points as well. Everyone agreed things are a mess with the debt, and huge changes will be monetized with more printing of money by the fed and treasury… and here we are 2 months later and we have MMT on steroids…
Matthew, Martin Armstrong is not as accurate as he claims to be. He’s always advocating how the stock market is so hated and it’s going to keep going up. I knew you was going to be wrong because I was expecting epic collapse and I thought here’s a guy that probably knows a thousand times more than me but he can’t get out of his own way.
I don’t know that much about Brent listened to him a few times he sounds really good but I took it all with a grain of salt because they pitch all their newsletters and like I was telling excelsior.
Excelsior, isn’t that something this new MMT theory popped up over the last many years. All the bubble heads are falling all over themselves believing these fables a tragic ending.
Josey, I agree about Armstrong.
Matthew, I always felt that Armstrong made a deal with The Establishment because of his criminal legalities and incarceration. They sat him down and said do you want to get out of here you better start supporting are pyramid paper scheme Ponzi scheme markets. He’s been always downplaying gold too. Talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Same here. He changed his tune after he was released.
Matthew, I knew that you figured him out that’s why specifically asked you about Marty Boy.
The paper market pyramid Ponzi schemes are going in the opposite direction I’m really surprised what’s going on here LOL
Wait till The Dow Cow prints 5K
Will the sheeple finally wake up and realize something’s very wrong
Excelsior, I was really counting and hoping I would have no company with regard to analysis in this gold space but there’s always a rare exception. After being around this business for decades you get a feel for who’s just pitching a narrative to gain popularity for any reason they can. Gold is trading in classic characteristic type moves not to attract too much attention this is an ideal situation. Just my observations.
Good thoughts Josey Wales, and yes, there isn’t much company in looking at the currencies rationally and historically, as most of the bobble-heads on main stream economic media outlets act like the fiat currencies will always be around and have bought into the illusion that they are sound money, when nothing is further from the truth. Conversely, yes there are some just promote gold to sell their products (coins/bars/jewelry/collectibles) or promote their lifestyle “gold” company where they are merely mining shareholders pockets.
In this case, I agree with you that Gold has moved up from it’s major low in Dec 2015 at $1045.40 up to a high of $1788.80 recently and yet, strangely, the yellow metal has not really attracted that much attention despite that move higher. It may take the headlines of Gold breaking the old 2011 high of $1921 to really get the general investors heads to swivel and take a closer look.
Excelsior, I don’t know man I’m thinking about having you as my full-time mentor. You definitely have my attention.
I’m a high-risk player. Everyone has their own tolerance so you can’t stay invested in something you don’t believe in. The gold market is a classic example of that people jump in and jump out and they never make any money and all they do is see red ink they lose money. Completely impatient. Attention span of a squirrel in lot of cases and I’m being very realistic.
Catch you on the rebound it’s nice communicating with you and I need my beauty sleep. I need to avoid all the makeovers if you know what I mean. Health is wealth. There’s no liberty without gold. They need to keep their paws to themselves.
Haha! Josey Wales, I was thinking it may be the other way around where I’ll be reading your thoughts for guidance and mentorship. I’m much more of an active trader, but hope my attention span is one of the large squirrels at least.
Yes, good chat and have a great evening. I agree that health is wealth, and it reminds me I should probably get a few hours of sleep as well. Cheers!
Excelsior, it’s very rare anyone can gain any traction in this gold space to turn a profit much less a home run capital gain, that’s what this is all about because of the speculative high risk factor in the mining shares. You’re gaining a lot of knowledge that you need to be successful and the desire to succeed with strong conviction. Excelente !!!
You mentioned the bubble heads. That’s a great start because if someone in the market doesn’t recognize that then they’re really doomed.
It’s all about patience especially in the gold market. Strong strong conviction and buying at fire-sale prices and just riding it all the way to the top without trying to get yourself whipsawed out suffering financial losses. That’s where a lot of investors get their heads handed to them they think they can trade this market and the end up with an empty bag if not a bag of potatoes.
Several times I successfully traded it and made a fortunes but I’m not going to attempt it now I see that we’re headed into really fast market with huge gains making the marijuana stocks look tame this is when the MJ stocks went completely wild. I warned some close relatives and they didn’t listen and lost their shirt they thought they were going to keep going up and they ended up falling by 90% or better. It’s a real tragedy. The big players make all the money they get in way before for pennies on the dollar and then the stocks go to five or $10 and they make just fortunes. 10,000 percent easy. You can catch these waves you have to be very sober and alert and get in at the very early stages for the pennies on the dollar and then it takes a lot of patience. Just my two cents worth.
+2 Josey Wales – I appreciated several points you just made and your two cents worth.
Ever Upward!
Good conversation Excelsior, and Josey…..made my Friday morning off to a good start!
Thanks for the kind words Whit. I felt Josey Wales had many great points to consider as well. Ever upward!
What Caused the New York vs. London Gold Price Spread and Why it Persists
Jan Nieuwenhuijs – April 30, 2020
Bullion Banks Losing Money Through EFPs
“Bullion banks often have a long spot position in London and are short futures on the COMEX. When a refinery in Switzerland, for example, casts big bars (400-ounce) and sells them to a bullion bank in London, the bank hedges itself on the COMEX. This makes the bank long spot and short futures.”
“An Exchange For Physical (EFP) is usually a swap between a futures and a spot position. In banking jargon the word “EFP” also refers to, (i) having a position in both markets, and (ii) the spread in general (because the price of the EFP is equal to the difference in price between New York futures and London spot). A bullion bank that is “short EFP” is long spot and short futures.”
“As mentioned, banks are most of the time short EFP. When the spread widened their short EFP starting bleeding. To avoid further losses, some banks “were forced to cover,” which added fuel to the fire. (It can also be the banks themselves started the spread to widen.) Many banks suffered severe losses.”
I did forget to mention I’m not a stock picker unless it’s at a new sector of a market and a classic example of that would be in the gold or marijuana stocks or biotech etc. but since I’m a gold bug I stick with gold. I made fortunes in real estate but that’s not on the radar screen and hasn’t been for years because it’s one of those bubble head markets. There’s going to be a lot of pain coming and we have demographics in place so it’s going to be ugly.
Yes, it is good to have real estate (but it is getting toppy and ready to retreat a bit), and having the physical is good, and some fiat cash. I’ve got a retirement account filled with boring mutual funds mostly US growth & income, but some defensive funds, and emerging markets.
I’ve got a trading account that is full of a quite a few resources stocks, but most heavily weighted to the Silver and Gold stocks: royalty companies, mid-tier producers, smaller producers with exploration upside, developers that are near term producers or takeover targets, and some smaller exploration discovery stocks.
Excelsior, considering we are not going to have any financial cataclysmic events if you know what I mean all your precious metal investments are going to do phenomenally well.
I’m all in completely. Took advantage of the crash several weeks back fire-sale prices it’s the first time I’ve just literally invested everything in precious metals since 1999 the year 2000 I can’t remember the exact date my timing was precise just before the market made me fortunes. I was also trading hundreds of futures contracts in commodities and it was exhilarating with all the fortunes pouring in. Those days are over I could never keep up with it now. Not to mention all the real estate properties I was a very busy guy was working night and day 7 days a week maybe 150 hours I don’t know it was beyond anything I could ever handle now. I can’t even relate to it.
Right now all my investments in precious metals is the least of my worries. I try and think I’m young but it’s not working out. I’m on complete cruise control I stopped trading a couple years ago it’s not worth it a lot of research and time-consuming mainly in commodities to eliminate all the risk. The Goldbug like me doesn’t change its spots this will be my last run.
Josey Wales – Agreed, and great insights.
Thanks for sharing how you’re positioned now, and your professional and financial background. It appears you were very successful and worked very hard at it to learn and perfect your craft. Now, you are enjoying the fruits of your labors and living the good life, but still have positioned in the precious metals for the next run.
I very much respect that and it will be good to read your comments on the markets as things unfold.
I’ll confess to spending a fair bit of time, possibly too much time, studying the general macro markets, but mostly a focus on resource stocks, fundamental and technical analysis, and am actively trading the individual mining stocks.
There are ways to participate in more volatile sectors like gold and silver stocks, that still minimize risk in certain sub-sectors in a portion of one’s portfolio, while simultaneously seeking out-sized gains with other higher-risk portions of the portfolio. Individual miners are much higher risk though, like the cannabis and biotech examples you mentioned, and the trends or an individual company can turn on a dime, so traders must stay more nimble and keep a closer eye than longer term value investors.
Both approaches have merit, and my goal is to gradually transition from more active to more passive in my investing over this PM and energy cycle and reorganization of financial markets over the next few years.
Excelsior, you’re a financial Superman sorting through all this information it’s incredible. That’s what I was doing maybe on a little different scale I don’t know it’s hard to decipher what everyone goes through but it’s a lot of work.
You’re definitely the go-to guy right now you have a lot of good things going on lots of integrity. Not tonight but if you don’t mind I’m going to ask you a few questions about a few mining companies see what your thoughts are. Although, excelsior I pick some of the cheapest dogs back in the day and they did better than anything else in the portfolio had which was probably compromising 8 stocks that had a lot of potential. Even in one in particular there was a bankruptcy threat and I had a fortune invested it I didn’t even blink an eye because I knew it was going to go gangbusters. That it did, it was the best performer.
I have emphasize patients because these precious metal markets have never been easy.
Thanks for all your great thoughts and opinions I might have some questions for you in the future. Also, never mind me you know what you’re doing I’m just die hard gold bug especially now with these Junior mining companies they’ve never been so cheap it’s a dream come true so I’m all in whatever happens I don’t care about the rest I really don’t. If it all crashes and burns I’m not going to have any regrets because I did everything that qualifies for a moonshot. And I certainly don’t want to be stuck with roll wipe DYX. I have absolutely no choice and with the fizz you go down with the ship there’s just no choice.
Thanks again Josey Wales, and you’re in good company here with the good folks at the KE Report. I’m always happy to look at or discuss the good, the bad, and the ugly as it relates to the mining stocks and definitely do not have all the answers and make plenty of mistakes and miscalculations, like any investor does. I just get more right than wrong, which keeps the lights on and the portfolio in the green.
Personally, my primary reason for coming to the site was to discuss mining stocks, energy stocks, and investible ideas. I’m open to looking and reviewing companies people feel are worth researching further, and again there are so many sharp investors here that will dissect the fundamentals or technicals, or point out potential red flags or unnoticed opportunities.
By sharing and networking together here at the KER, it may give us a slight edge, or if nothing else throw a few names onto our radars to keep an eye on. Have a great one!
Excelsior, it’s been a great great pleasure getting acquainted with you and the feeling’s mutual. You’re definitely not the average breed a cat and a real warrior that’s what it takes because even if you get banged up you have to keep coming back it’s the learning curve. There’s an old saying, in order to make money you have to know how to lose it first. Everything is trial and error. Greed is what really destroys people completely. Personally, if I lost everything I’d still be the same person. I may be cast down but that’s something everyone has to deal with in life but not completely destroyed. The subject of logic came up the other day on the other blog Chris Temple on this website. Logic can only take a person so far. Wealth is in the same category. If someone bases their whole life around that they’re in serious trouble. Logic nor wealth knows how to love. Like you, I never want to believe I have everything figured out. There’s been a lot of trial-and-error in my life and some things I never want to replay because it was unhealthy in every respect. There’s just a whole lot more to life than people really realize and when you find out you just say to yourself how did that happen how could I be so naive about a lot of things.
Also, we might have a lot of differences in some respect but we can all learn from each other because all of us have something different to offer. Matthew is a technical market genius in a lot of ways and all of us are just gifted differently.
I look forward to the journey warrior Superman Excelsior along with many others who share the same ideals. Forever moving upwards 👍👍 only one request please leave this at home 😷 Those who trade liberty for security deserve neither, go Benjamin Franklin and GO GOLD.
Jose Wales – thanks again for nice remarks and your insights are incredibly well-stated.
Looking forward to learning from your comments and all the great contributors here at the KER that spend their time to share ideas that may help us all be better informed.
Excelsior, okay Bro
Forgot to mention Excelsior same to you on everything. I’m constantly and still working on my deficits in my character.
Cory – good interview with Brian and it was a nice macro overview of how he values companies in his portfolio.
Here was a recent interview where Brian got a bit more into the royalty companies.
Brian Leni: I Am Very Interested in Base Metal Royalty Companies Now
April 20th, 2020
Gold is unpopular percentage of US households ownership is at a historic low.
Silence is golden and silence is a solid investment and it’s now a tier one asset.
Paper pyramid and Ponzi schemes are collapsing. Gold was reclassified into a tier-one asset in the last 12 months. Why now ? Do Cadillacs have hubcaps.