Ed Moya - Senior Market Analyst at OANDA – Tue 5 May, 2020

The ECB might have it’s QE powers limited thanks to a German court ruling

Ed Moya kicks off today by addressing a German court ruling that states the Bundesbank must stop buying government bonds if the ECB can not prove those purchases are needed. On the back of this ruling the Euro is down and yields are moving higher. We also touch on the crude price moving above $25.

Click here to visit the OANDA website and follow along with Ed’s daily note.

Upcoming Webinar – May 8th @ 12pm PDT (3pm EDT) – TriStar Gold. The Company owns 100% of the Castelo de Sonhos gold project, located in Pará state, Brazil. The Company has recently completed a US $8 million finance with Royal Gold Inc. with proceeds used to advance the project to completion of a feasibility study in 2020.

Click here to sign up for free and have first access to the live recording.

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Comments:
  1. On May 5, 2020 at 9:36 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (WKM) (WKLDF) West Kirkland is rather peppy today up over 30% on 9x the normal volume. I didn’t see any news out, so what is driving the volume and price today?

    Is there some newsletter or promotional pump going on, or do insiders know something about them finally getting their development project into production in Nevada?

    Here is the new West Kirkland Corporate Presentation from May 2020:

    http://wkmining.com/_resources/presentations/WKM-Corporate-Presentation.pdf

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:05 am,
      David says:

      West Kirkland : I couldn’t find anything but price and vol increases. Ongoing insider buying. 400000+ shares out, but somebody interested.

      Thanks again, for the uranium summary. Anyone interested in uranium purchases should see Ex’s comments under Saturday’s Part 1 posting by Cory.

      As a result of your article, I bought some Nexgen (was thinking of getting Iso, but Nexgen owns about 52% of Iso), Denison, Anfield and Laramide. Into 2nd day of ownership and all four in green including fees. Azarga purchased last week is down, But 4 out of 5 not bad.

      • On May 5, 2020 at 10:10 am,
        David says:

        Saw the news this morning and added a few. I thought drill results were pretty good but some moaning on ceo.ca. I know you follow it pretty closely. How do the charts look? If we could just get silver moving, drill results would be more fun.

      • On May 5, 2020 at 10:21 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks David. Yeah, I can’t figure out why (WKM) is surging today but I’m not upset by the large move higher. I’m guessing they are finally getting close to production and the insiders know it, or that some newsletter just latched onto the story and this is their followers entry. Either way, it looks like they’re on track to Gold production in the not so distant future.

        Another company that just announced going into Gold production is (STGO) Steppe Gold Ltd. They went from a low around $.60 on the March selloff and have rocketed up to $1.65 and just announced commencing production recently. I was aware but only casually watching and then saw some comments this morning and was surprised at the move it had.

        I’m looking forward to seeing some of the other developers hit their stride during their “Golden Runway” phase from development into first Gold pour as well.

        • On May 5, 2020 at 10:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          As for the Uranium miners, thanks for kind words about my long rant on the weekend show. I believe most of those companies you picked will do very well (Azarga, Nexgen, Anfield, Denison, and Laramide).

          I currently hold both Nexgen and Anfield on that list and plan on getting a position in Denison and Azaraga… and maybe Laramide as well.

          My biggest Uranium positions are in Ur-Energy, Energy Fuels, and Uranium Energy Corp, and I like their dual listing and liquidity. NXE is dual-listed as well and also very liquid. Actually, Denison is dual-listed as well.

          I’m still considering LEU Centrus as non-miner, but more of a nuclear fuel enricher/processor/reseller, but it’s already made such a nice run, I’d like to see it pull back first.

          • On May 5, 2020 at 10:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Actually upon checking, my NXE position has now outgrown my UEC position, but in fairness I added to NXE when it was beat up and bloodied back in March and didn’t add to UEC, so the recent rebound has spiked NXE inside my portfolio a bit more.

            URG and UUUU are still my 2 largest positions though, and I’m waiting to see a few more specifics on what the government will actually do based on the Nuclear Working Group general recommendations, and then most of the US-based uranium companies (including AZZ, AEC, and LAM) should have much further to move.

          • On May 6, 2020 at 7:05 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here’s an interesting bullish NXE chart a technician @ylr posted over at ceo.ca.

            https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/cdn.ceo.ca/1fb49k8-NXE.png

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:21 am,
      Wolfster says:

      Maybe something popped up to some in the May presentation that suggested it was undervalued???

      • On May 5, 2020 at 10:28 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Hey Wolfster – Yeah that could be as WKM just posted their new May presentation on their website, but they’ve been undervalued, like most of the developers, for the last 2-3 years. (lol) I don’t know, maybe some analysts just woke up and realized, damn what a nice IRR and NAV on their economics at $1500-$1700 Gold for a near-term producer in Nevada.

        West Kirkland are neighbors with Scorpio Gold (SGN) on one side and Corvus Gold (KOR) on the other, so hoping that whole Walker Trend lights up.

        • On May 5, 2020 at 10:32 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Here is nice reference map of the Walker Gold trend in Nevada, showing Scorpio Gold, West Kirkland, and Corvus together. Actually the other side of Corvus was Northern Empires project that Coeur Mining bought in a takeover 2 years back (but is it listed as Sterling with Imperial Metals on this old map).

          http://wkmining.com/_resources/projects/hasbrouck_overview/fig1.jpg

      • On May 5, 2020 at 6:00 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        (WKM) (WKLDF) West Kirkland Management Unaware of Material Change

        by @newsfile on 5 May 2020

        “At the request of IIROC, West Kirkland Mining Inc. (TSXV: WKM) wishes to confirm that the Company’s management is unaware of any material change in the Company’s operations that would account for the recent increase in market activity.”

        https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/west-kirkland-management-unaware-of-material-change

  2. On May 5, 2020 at 9:40 am,
    Matthew says:

    Brixton Metals drills 5.00m of 1,293.34 g/t silver, including 2.00m of 3,205.00 g/t silver
    http://pdf.reuters.com/htmlnews/htmlnews.asp?i=43059c3bf0e37541&u=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20200505:nGNX2sbql

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:29 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Wow! That is a solid bonanza grade high Silver hit for Brixton. Very nice!

      • On May 5, 2020 at 10:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Ah, upon further research it looks like it was twinned hole of an old known hole, which is why the market hasn’t reacted much to it thus far. They were likely trying to get a share prices movement to raise capital into.

        There may be more of a market response as the news is gradually disseminated and digested, but regardless, even if it is more or less a twinned hole of a known area, those are some nice grades.

        • On May 5, 2020 at 3:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Well, BBB did end up gaining 10% on the day after all, after putting out the good drill intercepts, which was nice to see.

  3. On May 5, 2020 at 10:44 am,
    David says:

    Brixton: At least the trend is toward upward on a downward path. Maybe these drill results will get it a big volume day this week and we can disrupt direction on the chart. The MACD is maybe turning and a hint in the Full Stokes. I vote for this thing to get motivated.

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:49 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed about (BBB) David. I don’t like that Brixton put in a new lower low on the longer term weekly chart, below the 2019 low, but I do like the new more encouraging uptrend in the more recent time frame on the daily chart. It would be nice to see it run up for a few months and challenge the 2019 high and get a bigger picture bullish trend set back up.

  4. On May 5, 2020 at 10:52 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (USAS) (USA) Americas Gold and Silver Announces C$25 Million Bought Deal Public Offering

    by @newswire on 5 May 2020

    “Strategic investors led by Pierre Lassonde and Eric Sprott have indicated that they intend to subscribe for such number of common shares from the offering totalling C$8.75 million.”

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/americas-gold-and-silver-announces-c25-million-bought

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:52 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Lassonde and Sprott are growing their positions —> Follow the money…. 😉

    • On May 5, 2020 at 10:58 am,
      David says:

      Lassonde and Sprott. There is a pair. I’d like to follow them around for a couple of weeks except for the quarantine thing.

      • On May 5, 2020 at 11:01 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I’d like to have a chat and a few laughs with them both over a nice bottle of wine, or be a fly on the wall when Eric goes fishing in remote places and make sure he is using a Silver lure to keep supporting the industry.

        • On May 5, 2020 at 11:16 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I would still want Lassonde to update his “Lassonde Curve” to show that that party isn’t over at production, and often there is a whole new curve and uptrend that starts once a company graduates to producing metals and revenues and starts building more value. Producers can then grow through more exploration & new discoveries (just like explorers and developers) and they can growth through strategic partnerships, JVs, and takeovers with other miners.

  5. On May 5, 2020 at 1:13 pm,
    Charles says:

    Nice end to the day today. Silver miners were up solid. I liked the action as it was strong into the close although volume in most was not all that robust. Hey Ex – I bought back in to UUUU today. Just a smidge to get in!

    • On May 5, 2020 at 3:22 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Charles – hope all is going well and over the long haul I expect UUUU to do very well as the largest US Uranium producer.

      As for the Silver producers, I wasn’t nearly as enthusiastic about today’s action, as only a few were up and most were flat to down on the day. Many of my favorites were punished the hardest (but they outperform on the upside and downside)
      ___________________________________________________________________

      Symbol – Silver Producers – Daily Change %

      GGD.TO GoGold Resources Inc. +5.48%
      USAS Americas Gold and Silver Corporation +3.88%
      MYA.TO Maya Gold and Silver Inc. +1.78%
      SSRM SSR Mining Inc. +1.06%
      EXN.TO Excellon Resources Inc. +1.03%
      FSM Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. +0.97%
      HOC.L Hochschild Mining plc +0.69%
      SBR.TO Silver Bear Resources Plc 0.00%
      AG First Majestic Silver Corp. -0.49%
      PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. -0.76%
      SMTS Sierra Metals Inc. -0.88%
      SVM Silvercorp Metals Inc. -1.02%
      FRES.L Fresnillo Plc -1.15%
      GPL Great Panther Mining Limited -2.34%
      HL Hecla Mining Company -2.58%
      ASM Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. -2.79%
      CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. -2.86%
      EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. -3.09%
      SCZ.V Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. -4.35%
      IPT.V IMPACT Silver Corp. -8.14%

      • On May 5, 2020 at 3:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Now as for the Silver Developers & Explorers they were more evenly distributed in today’s trading with about 1/3 up, 1/3 flat, and 1/3 down. I had a few more bright spots in my portfolio on this list, but also a few stinkers as well.

        ____________________________________________________________________

        Symbol – Silver Developers & Explorers – Daily Change %

        WRM.AX White Rock Minerals Ltd +33.33%
        ISLV International Silver, Inc. +25.45%
        ABRA.V AbraPlata Resource Corp. +23.53%
        GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +10.00%
        BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +9.68%
        G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +8.51%
        SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +8.11%
        AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +8.02%
        MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +7.89%
        CCW.V Canada Cobalt Works Inc. +6.33%
        SIL.TO SilverCrest Metals Inc. +5.71%
        VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +4.76%
        VZLA.V Vizsla Resources Corp. +4.65%
        BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +4.49%
        DSV.V Discovery Metals Corp. +4.40%
        MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +3.51%
        AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +3.13%
        NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +2.47%
        DV.V Dolly Varden Silver Corporation +1.75%
        ASLM American Silver Mining Co. 0.00%
        ASL.V Argentum Silver Corp. 0.00%
        AUU.V Aura Resources Inc. 0.00%
        AZR.V Azarga Metals Corp. 0.00%
        AZS.AX Azure Minerals Limited 0.00%
        DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. 0.00%
        GTA.V GTA Financecorp Inc. –
        KS.V Klondike Silver Corp. 0.00%
        KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc 0.00%
        PLA.V Plata Latina Minerals Corporation 0.00%
        PSL.V Prospero Silver Corp. 0.00%
        SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. 0.00%
        SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. 0.00%
        SSE.V Silver Spruce Resources Inc. 0.00%
        SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. 0.00%
        BCK.V Blind Creek Resources Ltd. 0.00%
        SIVE Silver Verde May Mining Co., Inc. 0.00%
        AGH-H.V Canadian Silver Hunter Inc. –
        AUMN Golden Minerals Company 0.00%
        SMI.AX Santana Minerals Limited 0.00%
        SPD.V Silver Predator Corp. 0.00%
        VIPR.V Silver Viper Minerals Corp. 0.00%
        VAL.AX Valor Resources Limited 0.00%
        AHNR Athena Silver Corporation 0.00%
        BNKR.CN Bunker Hill Mining Corp. 0.00%
        CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. 0.00%
        IVR.AX Investigator Resources Limited 0.00%
        NBR.V Nubian Resources Ltd. 0.00%
        JAX.V Jaxon Mining Inc. 0.00%
        GGX.V GGX Gold Corp. 0.00%
        UFO.L Alien Metals Limited 0.00%
        EX.CN Explorex Resources Inc. 0.00%
        BHS.V Bayhorse Silver Inc. 0.00%
        AAG.V Aftermath Silver Ltd. 0.00%
        EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation 0.00%
        MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. -0.37%
        AUN.V Aurcana Corporation -1.32%
        SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. -1.43%
        SVL.AX Silver Mines Limited -3.61%
        GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. -4.69%
        MTR.L Metal Tiger plc -5.08%
        REX.V Orex Minerals Inc. -5.88%
        SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. -6.25%
        CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. -7.14%
        CCM.TO Canarc Resource Corp. -9.09%
        CD.V Cantex Mine Development Corp. -11.76%
        RYO.V Rio Silver Inc. -14.29%
        BTT.V Bitterroot Resources Ltd. -14.29%
        PCY.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. -23.08%

        • On May 5, 2020 at 3:37 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Personally I trimmed back a big chunk of my Abraplata Resources and a just a wee bit of Alexco Resource into today’s strength, and added a bit to my Aurcana and Vizsla positions.

          • On May 5, 2020 at 6:00 pm,
            Charles says:

            Interesting you sold some AXU. I was thinking it was just starting to look interesting.

          • On May 5, 2020 at 6:09 pm,
            Matthew says:
          • On May 5, 2020 at 6:16 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The week is far from over but I bet that weekly MACD buy signal will stick:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18083056907&a=617104424

          • On May 5, 2020 at 7:42 pm,
            David says:

            I sold my Alexco off recently to buy something else. I used to sell losers, but now I look at gains as a way to swap out a trade at a discount. I buy shares with profits/basis from the sell and consider it as buying the new shares cheaper. Compounding. Then within a short period of time, I start wanting what I sold back. I have gotten where I hate to look at what I sold. Then, I look at what I have to see what I would sell to get it back. If nothing…I seek mental help.

          • On May 6, 2020 at 2:07 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Charles, I only sold a small amount of Alexco because it was growing too large in my portfolio, and I wanted to trim the gains back and move it to cash. I used the Abraplata proceeds on the big move today to add to Aurcana & Vizsla and used the AXU profits to build up more dry powder.

            Really AXU Alexco looked interesting in Mid-March during the selloff, as it was waaaay over sold just like most stocks, and that is when I was amazed people were hiding in cash and not firing off everything they had. I actually took some funds out of deep savings to deploy in my trading account during the Mid-March rout specifically because things looked so opportune.

            With Alexco, I had added some to my position initially on Feb 28th and sold that back on March 3rd, and then really added big on March 13th & 16th, and trimmed a 1/2 of that back on the March 17th, then added another tranche on March 20th, then trimmed a 2/3 of that back on April 13th, then added that 2/3 of a tranche back on April 16th, then trimmed 1/3 of that tranche bit back today. I’ve actually done over a dozen trades in Alexco this year, but I still have my core position in place, and actually the largest AXU position I’ve ever had.

            Swing-trading in about dozen very liquid stocks like Alexco is what allowed me the gains to recoup all my losses from late Feb to March so quickly, and I’m still a huge fan, so don’t think I was trimming because I’m not excited about their future. I’ve been back in trading AXU since early 2016 and it is one of my favorite Silver stocks.

            Actually Alexco had actually bounced back so hard off the March lows and had kept moving strong recently, and I just didn’t want it to be my 2rd largest Silver position, so I knocked it back down to 5th position.

            _____________________________________________________________

            Matthew – Great Alexco charts! Thanks as always.

            I do like that AXU broke about the Ichimoku cloud resistance recently, that the Ichimoku cloud just turned positive and that it broke above that trend line you overlaid. The ADX is also up nicely with positive momentum, but I trimmed for position sizing, and because the slow stochastics is short-term getting overbought, as is the CCI on that chart you posted. However if it continues to run, I’ll be more than happy.

            ______________________________________________________

            David – Yes, I like rotating outperformance into some of the stocks I feel have more immediate upside potential, or in this case I just moved a few chips off the table in AXU back to cash. I’m still slightly worried the general markets have already gotten way to complacent and may roll over again, putting selling pressure on most asset classes in another sell everything event later this month, and I don’t want to get caught without cash to take advantage of any weakness we see.

            As you mentioned, sometimes there can be sellers regret if a stock keeps running and the one you rotate into doesn’t move, but I’ve gotten much better at letting my winners run, and waiting until other stocks are ready to move before reallocating into them. I still make PLENTY of mistakes, but have learned a lot through the school of hard knocks over the years, and get it right more often that wrong these days, and that’s what keeps the lights on the portfolio in the green.

            Cheers guys! I really appreciate the comments and insights from folks here at the KER!

          • On May 6, 2020 at 6:46 am,
            Charles says:

            I am hoping (perhaps too optimistically after reading the post Ex made of Bob Moriarity’s piece), that AXU will reach around $2.00 which would be the top rail of red fork in Matthew’s chart. I would like to trim a bit if it hits that level as I do think there is probably one more cycle down before a breakout, but I don’t expect anything close to new lows. Good discussion guys and thanks for all the charts and analysis.

        • On May 6, 2020 at 2:23 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Transitioning from a Silver Developer to a Producer – Alexco Resource Corp (AXU) (AXR)

          Cambridge House International – Feb 25th #VIDEO #CorporatePresentation

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K15hwt94rII

        • On May 6, 2020 at 5:32 am,
          David says:

          Looking at the list of silver miners, I think many of those were up most of the day but were victims of “tape painting” either at close or during the delayed reporting of many after close. This morning, looks like the PMs have been smashed on at least 3 occasions since about 2-3 AM EST.

          • On May 6, 2020 at 7:02 am,
            Excelsior says:

            It is likely that some traders or funds pulled profits at the end of the day, as some of the miners have had incredibly great rallies since mid-March but they have been getting a bit overbought.

            As for the gold price, there’s no telling what large buyers are in and out of the futures markets, or Asian & European markets early morning.

  6. On May 5, 2020 at 7:03 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    I picked up some Skeena Resources today, I am really waiting for the breakout of the micro cap gold juniors. When the tide lifts all boats, I will be wading into the fray, buying, selling, and day trading. DT

    • On May 6, 2020 at 2:10 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Interesting choice DT. Yeah, SKE has been really strong this year, and they’ve had some excellent exploration results, so it makes sense. As an explorer their market cap of 177 Million is getting up there, but they are in the right neighborhood in the shadows of old mines and the majors.

      May your trading be incredibly prosperous sir!

  7. On May 6, 2020 at 7:08 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Freegold Ventures, did you see those drill results! LOL! DT

    • On May 6, 2020 at 7:19 am,
      Dick Tracy says:

      188 metres grading 3.69 G/T Gold, This should turn the gold market on it’s ears, I can feel the wind ripping around my head! DT

      • On May 6, 2020 at 7:25 am,
        Dick Tracy says:
        • On May 6, 2020 at 8:14 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Wow DT. Freegold Ventures up 293% today on the news.

          At first I thought you were just doing the hairdryer technique to fight off viruses, but that really is the wind of Mr Market ripping around your ears! (lol)

          • On May 6, 2020 at 8:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Well it pulled back some to only being up 250% on the day now. Still that is an epic gap higher.

            Jr #Explorers are one of the few businesses that can suddenly become almost 3 times more valuable in one day just for drilling a hole in the ground.

            They don’t always hit paydirt, but when they do… Kapow!

          • On May 6, 2020 at 8:25 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Hey Ex, I can’t think of anything better than mob psychology creating the spirit of panic in the gold market. My neighbors are busy planting tomatoes but nothing creates excitement like a good old fashioned gold rush, especially in The Yukon or Alaska. DT

          • On May 6, 2020 at 9:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed DT!

  8. On May 6, 2020 at 7:19 am,
    David says:

    Second try. Mako news this morning.

    • On May 6, 2020 at 8:06 am,
      David says:

      As a result of Mako drill reports, Sailfish having good morning also.

      • On May 6, 2020 at 8:10 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Ah ya beat me to it. Haha! Yes (FISH) up 7% on the news. Very nice for both companies.

    • On May 6, 2020 at 8:09 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Absolutely. Once again Mako Mining is trucking right along with their exploration success. If this mine was in Canada it be valued 2-3 times higher already because it is going to be one of the highest grade open pit Gold projects coming into production in the near term. This is also good news for Sailfish Royalties which holds and Net Smelter Royalty on San Albino.

      _____________________________________________________________

      (MKO) (MAKOF) Mako Mining – Infill Drilling at Arras Zone Within San Albino Intersects 30.27 g/t Gold Over 4.2 Meters (Estimated True Width) 2 Meters From Surface

      @newswire on 6 May 2020

      https://ceo.ca/@newswire/infill-drilling-at-arras-zone-within-san-albino-intersects

  9. On May 6, 2020 at 9:38 am,
    David says:

    The following is a summary of the news that support a drop in the price of precious metals and miners:

    • On May 6, 2020 at 9:44 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Haha! That about sums it up David.

      No news is good news I guess. 🙂