Jordan Roy-Byrne - Technical Commentary on the Metals – Wed 13 May, 2020

The relationship between gold stocks and the S&P needs to be watched

Jordan Roy-Byrne joined me this afternoon for a look at the overall performance of gold stocks vs the S&P. This all stems from a conversation about the theory “sell in May and go away”.

Click here to visit Jordan’s site – The Daily Gold.

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Comments:
  1. On May 14, 2020 at 7:00 am,
    Davud says:

    How many got the “Smash The Miners At Open” memo overnight. I guess they forgot to wait until physical was smashed. The good news is Vizsla had a pop, but they are chasing it down the street with its leash.

  2. On May 14, 2020 at 8:59 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Nice to see Silver with a $16 handle again.

    https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

  3. On May 14, 2020 at 9:14 am,
    Matthew says:

    The action looks convincing…
    (The following chart won’t show today until this evening.)
    On May 11, 2020 at 9:19 pm,
    Matthew says:
    Gold has been correcting for 4 weeks but has refused to break down. My “magic” number is a close above 1730.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p72263043960&a=719515489

    • On May 14, 2020 at 10:50 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold at $1738, so looking good. It is above both your magic number and Michael Oliver’s magic number.

      https://www.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

      • On May 14, 2020 at 10:53 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Michael Oliver – $Gold Update: The Magic Number
        May 11, 2020 – KWN

        “Well, gold certainly produced what for many was an implosion move in mid- March. But then within a couple daily bars that bear trap was sprung and gold returned to $1,700, the old ceiling (but momentum made a higher high in that two day surge). And within a few weeks price also took out that $1,700 level credibly.”

        “Gold has since cooled off from its overbought resurgence. But the “correction” or cooling-off process, though occupying ample time on the clock, did not produce a downside move of any consequence, only a sideways move. Bears must be frustrated…”

        > The Magic Number

        “If this week we see a trade up to $1,738.70 (using the June future), that will take out the oscillator highs of the past two weeks (red line on momentum).”

        “Again, short-term daily momentum action last week looks like it has validity and traction; this weekly momentum action would simply increase our conviction. ”

        https://kingworldnews.com/michael-oliver-gold-update-the-magic-number/

  4. On May 14, 2020 at 9:32 am,
    Matthew says:
  5. On May 14, 2020 at 9:41 am,
    David says:

    Some movement in West Red Lake but don’t see a reason yet.

  6. On May 14, 2020 at 9:42 am,
    David says:

    Jaguar evidently had a good first quarter.

    • On May 14, 2020 at 11:03 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (JAG) (JAGGF) Jaguar Mining Reports First Quarter 2020 Financial Results, Free Cash Flow and Stronger Liquidity

      by @accesswire on 13 May 2020

      > Q1 2020 Financial Highlights

      – Gold production increased 28% with 21,008 ounces compared to 16,365 ounces in Q1 2019;
      – Consolidated Cash Operating Costs (“COC”) decreased 20% to $693 per ounce mainly due to increase in head-grade and devaluation of the BRL currency;
      – Consolidated All-in Sustaining Costs (“AISC”) decreased 23% to $1,103 per ounce;
      – Net Income of $12.3 million; cash generated from operating activities of $8.6 million;
      – Sustaining capital expenditures of $6.6 million invested in development and mining equipment, with free cash flow of $2.1 million;
      – Free cash flow was $2.1 million for Q1 2020, compared to negative $4.6 million in Q1 2019. Free cash flow was lower than expected due to approximately 2,000 ounces sold on March 31, 2020, for which the payment was received in April due to COVID-19 related logistics issues. Had the payment been received in March, the free cash flow would have been $5.3 million.
      – Strong liquidity as at March 31, 2020, with a cash and sold bullion receivable of $15.6 million, as compared to $11.7 million of cash and unsold bullion on December 31, 2019;
      – Delivered into all gold option contracts and is completely unhedged at the end of Q1 2020.

      https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/jaguar-mining-reports-first-quarter-2020-financial

      • On May 14, 2020 at 11:08 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Interesting thoughts from a contributor over at ceo.ca:

        @Research67 – “Free cash flow was $2.1 million for Q1 2020, compared to negative $4.6 million in Q1 2019. Free cash flow was lower than expected due to approximately 2,000 ounces sold on March 31, 2020, for which the payment was received in April due to COVID-19 related logistics issues. Had the payment been received in March, the free cash flow would have been $5.3 million.”

        “Not a bad way to start Q2, with an unrealized gain $3.2 million in free cash flow. More fun with numbers to come 🙂 “

        • On May 14, 2020 at 11:09 am,
          Excelsior says:

          @Research67 – “Projecting a little bit…”

          “Jag Produced 21008 oz’s of gold in Q1 for revenue of $30,801,000.00, a realized gold price of $1466 (mostly due to gold sales hedging).”

          “With the POG averaging above $1700 since March 31 and gold hedging complete, Jag will appreciate $4,912,600 in additional revenue in Q2 over Q1, without producing any more gold. “

  7. On May 14, 2020 at 9:43 am,
    Marty says:

    Matthew, I wasn’t disparaging Impact with my mention of pure play Alexco. I’ve just never owned it. I did own Davidson’s Evergold 10 years ago touted by Silver-Guru

    • On May 14, 2020 at 9:51 am,
      Matthew says:

      Marty, I didn’t think for a second that you were disparaging Impact and I sure did not intend to disparage Alexco. It has all the right stuff to perform very well and maybe better than Impact.

      Brixton also looks good and all this weakness lately has caused my position to balloon.
      It ran into MA and Fibonacci resistance today:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p91469958641&a=754175187

      • On May 14, 2020 at 11:05 am,
        Excelsior says:

        +2 You guys are great. I own all three Alexco, Impact, and Brixton.

        Hi Ho Silver….. !

  8. On May 14, 2020 at 9:54 am,
    Matthew says:

    SLV/silver is shaping up very well for an intermediate degree move higher:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39555484467&a=727972963

  9. On May 14, 2020 at 10:03 am,
    David says:

    Matthew:
    I love it when you talk that way!

  10. On May 14, 2020 at 10:16 am,
    Wolfster says:

    Just like last week when pure gold had s pickup in volume just before moving nicely higher I’m seeing some interesting trading on the orezone. Volume and bids have gone up on the warrants and today looks like someone wanted 250,000 bad. Had a slight spike in price early in the day cuz of it.

    • On May 14, 2020 at 11:06 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yep. Pure Gold and Orezone are 2 of the advanced Developers to have in the hopper. Both are performing well lately, and rightly so, with Gold up above $1700.

      Their economics just got pretty zesty!

  11. On May 14, 2020 at 10:17 am,
    Wolfster says:

    The 250,000 was with the common stock not warrants just to clarify if it was at all confusing

  12. On May 14, 2020 at 12:02 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Here’s a BS article:
    Broken Supply Chains Foment Food Inflation, Precious Metals Gains
    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1589477509.php

    Gold is up 34% since May 14th 2019 yet this “foodflation” can’t possibly be due to the weak dollar? No wonder the author “has frequently appeared on national television networks such as CNN, Fox News, and CNBC and in hundreds of publications such as the Wall Street Journal, The Street, and Seeking Alpha.”

    I bet 95% of the investing public thinks stocks are only in trouble due to COVID-19 when in fact the debt virus is the real culprit. Pricing the stock market in real money we can clearly see that stocks topped in Q3 2018. It was all over for the bull way before anyone thought about any plandemic.

    • On May 14, 2020 at 12:41 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Lot of dummies out of the Un. of Florida……