TG Watkins - Techincal Trader – Mon 18 May, 2020

Sector Rotation or Inflationary Trade

TG Watkins, Director of Stocks at Simpler Trading joins me to share his thoughts on the market moves today. Pretty much everything is moving higher today on the back of more optimism for a vaccine and more central bank money printing.

Click here to visit the Simpler Trading website and follow along with what TG is trading.

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  1. On May 18, 2020 at 1:38 pm,
    Steve says:

    It amazes me how economically ignorant traders can be sometimes: The worst possible thing the government could do to prolong, perhaps even decimate any semblance of a recovery is to “help”. All that “wonderful” money they printed is going to have to be paid back by the people at interest in a floundering recovery that is floundering BECAUSE of the bailouts. It is a downward financial spiral because it is a logical paradox. Anyone who was financially irresponsible and failed to save at least 3 months of reserves for an emergency should have to file for bankruptcy and seek private charity in the interim. It is completely immoral that they should get bailed out by responsible citizens! This is a massive moral hazard! If they have to beg and borrow from friends and family I guarantee that those same friends and family will want to know why they were irresponsible with their money which serves as a reinforcement to make sure they don’t get caught in the same situation again. But, of course, because the majority of the population IS completely irresponsible financially, mob rule takes over and bailouts are aplenty. Can we please stop the insane ride of governmental dependence? I’d like to get off please.

    • On May 18, 2020 at 1:57 pm,
      Josey Wales says:

      πŸ‘πŸ‘ It’s a society in mental retardation. Spiritually, morally and financially bankrupt. Not only that it’s all going to burn, sooner probably, rather than later.

      • On May 18, 2020 at 2:03 pm,
        Temple says:

        As Jack Nicholson said of Gotham City when he played the Joker, paraphrasing, “This COUNTRY needs an enema!”

        • On May 18, 2020 at 2:16 pm,
          Josey Wales says:

          Even the secular world is realizing how bankrupt we are in every area of life. You would think the Christian community would be more sensitive towards all these atrocities that are taking place. What’s important is what God thinks. We are already in judgment and it’s absolutely astonishing that no one can see this. Because they have been turned over to a reprobate mind. What comes next is going to be an event that is so destructive that it levels everything.
          When it happens too, it’s going to be a “”suddenly.”” It’s going to be too late for many and massive loss of life.

    • On May 18, 2020 at 6:00 pm,
      Ebolan says:

      You can count on the goooberment and politicians to make a problem worse. That’s what they do best.

      • On May 18, 2020 at 6:27 pm,
        Josey Wales says:

        Over the next few months they’re going to start singing kumbaya. That’s when the major hit with massive collateral damages SmackDown with major loss of life in a “suddenly” cataclysmic event takes place. We are entering into this window of a major hit possibly before the end of summer. If not then, very high odds before November is over. So, anyone with any optimism is in that mental retardation category and state the mind who would include calculations of the populous 90% or better.

        • On May 18, 2020 at 9:16 pm,
          Josey Wales says:

          We have been under a psyop for decades. They’ve been pulling out
          one hair out one at a time. What haven’t they butchered ??

          They will not stop until they have our lives under their complete control all freedoms will be lost and nothing but bloodshed will result.

          Here’s a quick list of many things that they have destroyed and they are still working on. They butchered: sound money – the family unit -moral sexual lifestyles including marriage – prayer in our schools -removal of God from most institutions and all government agencies -our nation’s finances – our sexual gender – churches including the Holy Bible – constitutional rights – right to bear arms – debauchery of innocent babies and selling the body parts – corrupting the minds of innocent children into same-sex lifestyles etc. there is many more.

          Right now though, they are going all-in !!!!

          They will not stop until they have butchered everything including our food supply and they are working diligently on destroying everything.

    • On May 18, 2020 at 9:23 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Well stated Steve. Yes the growing nanny state takes from those that do, and gives to those that do not. It is the nature of socialist collectivist ideologies to promise people freebies or handouts in exchange for their vote, and to reinforce their victim status, as opposed to people having personal accountability for their own actions and the associated results. Thus, the nanny state grows ever larger…

      • On May 18, 2020 at 10:22 pm,
        Josey Wales says:

        Excelsior, we’ve already reached the nadir. Nanny state is past and not present as far as real socialism is concerned. We now have basic universal income. All we have to do is take a trip down memory lane and we will all discover that real socialism turns into a catastrophic event.
        This is not speculation either these are real facts. We are all on the Titanic whether anyone likes it or not.

        • On May 19, 2020 at 4:48 am,
          Excelsior says:

          We are definitely headed down the wrong path at present, but I remain hopeful that people are starting to wake up to these trappings, and out of the ashes of the old system a new path will emerge.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 7:31 am,
            Josey Wales says:

            Excelsior, That’s a really good start that you realize we are on this path to total destruction if it doesn’t turn around. I like to weigh all my odds. Should we be hopeful and is it really warranted at this time. This is a time that is far from being anything close to normal. You’re hopeful and stated that something new would emerge. Doesn’t seem irrational whatsoever unless we dig a lot deeper into who the perpetrators are and their final goals and motivations. According to my analysis the perpetrators are The Western Imperialists Elite Trillionaire Families that control every Central Bank on Earth with exception of North Korea, Iran and just a couple others. Whether one wants to believe that or not I don’t know. Those that don’t, that’s unfortunate for them. So, these Elite trillionaire families who are kept completely out of the spotlight, not by accident, because they are so wise they’ll make your hair stand up. All the attention is on these billionaires who are groomed, not all, by these Elite trillionaire families and placed in position. This includes the high-ranking politicians as well. I’m getting a little off track here but just pointing out that they have control over almost everything and these are very powerful people. Moving on, they control the printing presses and all the money supply in every nation-country for the exception of a few above. They control all the major media outlets including the people that are reporting all the news and even the politicians who can be bought off easily with their unlimited amounts of money. Psychological warfare is being produced right now in significant amounts of false propaganda to mislead the populous.

            Bottom line, I think you know where this is leading. Unless of course, we all believe that our nation is run by people that really care about us. Not according to my analysis. The perpetrators as above, are not going to provide any kind of life that’s going to be satisfactory whatsoever. With that being said, any kind of change coming in the future is going to be met with a lot of resistance and that’s going to mean major bloodshed. Yes, the new system will emerge but it’s not going to be anything like people would be hopeful for and many lives are going to be lost during the transition.

            Anyway, you should have a very strong back-up plan. You’re a very smart guy and many people that are even super wealthy including very high intellects are destroyed all the time.

            I said earlier in the above comments in weighing all the odds. I’m weighing the odds and they’re very very low for any kind of a life that would be close to pleasing and there’s going to be a lot of collateral damages with this transition. Everyone has a responsibility to weigh the odds and the path they choose will be their fate. Anymore than someone was to open a business and invest major capital they would have to have some kind of idea how they were going to succeed and weigh all the odds.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 1:08 pm,
            Josey Wales says:

            Namibia Africa rare footage pristine desert meets the ocean.


            A great place to live right now. No news and peace at last avoid the train wreck here.

  2. On May 18, 2020 at 1:53 pm,
    Nigel says:

    When you accept the stock market no longer reflects any economic fundamentals or investing norms but is in fact just a government sponsored casino, it makes more sense

    • On May 18, 2020 at 7:13 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      +1 Nigel.

  3. On May 18, 2020 at 7:22 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver Miners Surge As Metal Hits Highest Since February

    May 18, 2020 – Brad Olesen

    “Silver futures hit the highest price since February, rising to nearly $18/ounce Monday, up 13% (XAGUSD:CUR) over the last 5 sessions, helping shares of precious metal miners.”

    “Shares of Mag Silver (NYSEMKT:MAG), Silvercorp Metals (NYSEMKT:SVM), Fortuna Silver Mines (NYSE:FSM) and First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG) were among the biggest equity gainers as optimism for equities returned on the back of vaccine hopes and support from the Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell in an interview that aired over the weekend.”

    “Reports on consolidation in the segment, like that of Guyana and Silvercorp., in conjunction with strong results from Fortuna, may also be helping sentiment.”

    • On May 19, 2020 at 6:03 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Jeff Clark @TheGoldAdvisor on Twitter:

      “Check it, some research from my Casey days… the average share price performance of 6 Sweet Spot developers (credit @duediligenceguy) in 2015-2016 (bear market), notice most gains came in last 3 months leading up to first pour, so hold on to pre-producers like @PureGoldRedLake !” (PGM)


      Don Durrett @DonDurrett on Twitter

      May 17 Replying to @TheGoldAdvisor @duediligenceguy and @PureGoldRedLake

      “Yep, I always look for these. Some developers headed toward first poor: 1911 Gold, Ascot Mining, Skeena Resources, Aurcana Corp, Amarillo Gold, Pure Gold, Bonterra Resources, Orezone Gold. Let’s see how many get taken out. Hopefully, none!”

      • On May 19, 2020 at 6:07 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Out of that list Jeff & Don are discussing of sweet spot developers, I also own Pure Gold, Aurcana, Boneterra, and Orezone.

        I’m surprised neither mentioned Minera Alamos, Sabina Gold & Silver, West Kirkland, Alexco, or Bayhorse. (?)

        Some other underdog Developers with great assets that need to do some eventual re-rating are Treasury Metals, Falco, Orefinders, Kootenay, and Orex Minerals.

        • On May 19, 2020 at 6:12 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m also curious to see what happens with (DV) Dolly Varden as they have a new team coming in, went through a rough 2019, but have the goods, have had solid exploration results, have enough to put them on the radar of larger Silver producers looking for their next development project, and Hecla failed to take them over back in 2016. Well in the last 4 years they’ve found way more Silver and other minerals and have a more robust project now, than back then.

          When will a company make another move on Dolly?


          New Discoveries in a Historic Mining Camp: Golden Triangle of Northwestern BC

          Dolly Varden Silver Project (DV) (DOLLF) May 2020

          • On May 19, 2020 at 6:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Clearly Eric Sprott sees the potential as well, as he is upping his position. Seems like a good idea…


            (DV) (DOLLF) Dolly Varden Announces Strategic Investment by Eric Sprott Increasing His Holdings to 19.9%

            19 May 2020

            “With so many investment choices available, we are pleased that Eric Sprott will be taking a substantial position in Dolly Varden by increasing his strategic investment to 19.9%. This is a strong endorsement of our current high-grade silver resource and the substantial growth potential of our assets in the prolific Golden Triangle of British Columbia. With Eric’s investment, we are in a very strong cash position of just under CAD$6 million that will allow the Company to continue expanding its silver mineral resource with new high-grade silver discoveries on the property,” commented Shawn Khunkhun, Chief Executive Officer of Dolly Varden.”


          • On May 19, 2020 at 6:49 am,
            Excelsior says:

            While discussing Uncle Eric Sprott investing in quality Silver Developers with Exploration upside:

            $DSV $DSVMF Discovery Metals Announces C$25.0 Million Private Placement With C$10.0 Million Investment From Eric #Sprott
            May 18, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE)

            Taj Singh, President and CEO of Discovery commented, β€œThe strong investment interest in Discovery is a clear reflection of the exposure and leverage that our Cordero project provides to a rising silver price. It is also indicative of the very favorable investment case for silver considering the current gold-silver ratio of 107:1 is markedly higher than the 50-year average of approximately 60:1. Upon completion of this financing Discovery will have over $40 million of cash on its balance sheet – this positions Discovery as one of the best financed silver exploration companies in the industry and provides the firepower to aggressively advance Cordero and to accelerate our exploration efforts on the surrounding regional property package.”


          • On May 19, 2020 at 7:50 am,
            Thomas says:

            Ex, what is your opinion on Sprottβ€˜s $20 million investment in Euro Sun Mining?


          • On May 19, 2020 at 9:18 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Thomas – I’m sure he’s getting in at a good spot as Euro Sun is an up and coming future mine and widely followed Developer.

            I really don’t know much about the main project that Euro Sun has. Personally I was let down by Belo Sun back in 2017/2018, so both companies have not been on my radar. It does look like both companies have spiked recently so they are coming back to life.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 7:23 am,
        Excelsior says:

        (SBB) (SGSVF) Sabina Gold & Silver Announces C$49 Million Bought Deal Financing

        by @nasdaq on 19 May 2020

        “The net proceeds from the sale of the Common Shares will be used to advance development of the Company’s Back River Gold Project, including completion of detailed engineering, extension of the airstrip at Goose, completion of geotechnical drilling and acquisition of accommodation complex for future mine construction and operations, to commence the advancement of an underground decline to advance exploration on the Umwelt zone, and for working capital and general corporate purposes.”

  4. On May 18, 2020 at 9:31 pm,
    Buzz says:

    Time has come for the Heartland of America to labor for Trump’s rightful place in history. In other words, Grateful Dead had it right. No political solution, Get Back to work! (Don’t see AOC lacing up my bootstraps

  5. On May 18, 2020 at 9:59 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Looking at the weekly Pivot Points, it’s easy to see why GDX was such a bad performer today…

  6. On May 19, 2020 at 6:18 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Mathew, IPT looks like it is racing to get out of the gate this morning. They’re off…………

  7. On May 19, 2020 at 6:51 am,
    Tom says:

    long EXK

    • On May 19, 2020 at 7:26 am,
      Excelsior says:


    • On May 19, 2020 at 8:08 am,
      bonzo barzini says:

      I also own EXK, PAAS, AG, PSLV, WPM,AXU,HL, SSRM,SILV, and USAS, and some silver eagles.
      I have my own ETF and pay no fees except to PSLV.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 8:27 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Bob Moriarty: This Time It’s Different

        Maurice Jackson (Proven & Probable) for Streetwise Reports (5/18/20)

        > Maurice Jackson: “All right, sticking with investment opportunities, let’s discuss the physical precious metals. Are you surprised at the precious metals price response in the last 60 days?”

        >> Bob Moriarty: “No. I’ve been saying that same thing for years. Why would I be surprised? This is what I said was going to happen.”

        > Maurice Jackson: “Well, I think what a lot of investors were looking at, with all the printing and devaluation of the currency, the immediate response was silver should jump, gold should jump. And gold has actually made a little move, but silver has kind of remained stagnant. Which metals have your attention, at least, and why right now?”

        >> Bob Moriarty: “In 5,000 years, the highest the gold-silver ratio ever got to was 101 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. In the middle of March, it went up to 131:1.”

        “Silver is the easiest call for an investment that I have ever seen. Period. I don’t care that gold’s at the top. I don’t care if gold stays sideways and I don’t give a care if gold goes down. Silver is going to gain value substantially against gold. It literally is the best time in 5,000 years to be buying silver. And I am not a silver bug. Silver bugs are nuts. I mean, they’re bat crazy. They worship silver. Gold and silver are not something to be worshiped. They represent real value, and I believe that we will go back to a gold and silver standard, but there’s nothing you need to worship about it. But as an investment, silver is a good deal.”

        • On May 19, 2020 at 8:43 am,
          Matthew says:

          Like I showed yesterday, gold is in crash mode versus silver. Gold is going higher but silver is going way higher. The rest of the year belongs to silver since the March crash was the inverse of silver’s spike in 2011. Just look at that new weekly MACD buy signal for SLV vs GLD:

          • On May 19, 2020 at 9:04 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, SLV:GLD popped from under 2nd support up through it and heading for S1.

            It will be heading up to R1 and R2 before we know it.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 9:20 am,
            Matthew says:

            Watch P. Above it is bullish.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 10:36 am,
            bonzo says:

            I remember when just 17 oz of silver could buy an oz of gold back when Carter was POTUS.
            Biden is so horrible he could probably get silver back to that ratio.

  8. On May 19, 2020 at 8:19 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDX ran into resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the bear market:

    • On May 19, 2020 at 8:41 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      Do you think it will tag that 40-43 area? if so might take a few days imo..

      Gold resistance line stands at 1745-1750, i stiil believe there is one maybe two more moves higher short term before a good correction.

      My numbers are 1780-1800 and if very lucky 1840-1880 then clear the way. I could be totally wrong and i have been. But again not to sound pessimistic because id love to go much higher but there needs to be more fuel for that. We break 1920 late year early next year off to record highs. food for thought

      • On May 19, 2020 at 8:43 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        Alos would like to add that Matt has been and is at least for me one if not the best chart people o have witnessed. Great work and thanks for sharing because not to many do it or have the time to do it. You deserve much praise as well as ex for his picks and many others in here..

        • On May 19, 2020 at 9:01 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Those seem like reasonable resistance levels Glenfidish.

          Thanks for the kind words and I agree with you on Matthews technical analysis and chart work. It is great to have him sharing his perspectives here at the KER.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 10:38 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            THANKS EX

        • On May 19, 2020 at 9:07 am,
          confused says:

          thanks Matt….last month I backed up the truck on BBB/Kootney and Alexco (thanks to you too EX)!

          • On May 19, 2020 at 9:13 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Cheers confused!

        • On May 19, 2020 at 9:22 am,
          Matthew says:

          Thanks guys, I’m glad it’s working out!

      • On May 19, 2020 at 9:19 am,
        Matthew says:

        I think GDX will easily see 42-ish before May is over:

      • On May 19, 2020 at 9:24 am,
        Matthew says:

        Glen, I do think 1850+ is coming for gold and I, too, could be wrong.

        • On May 19, 2020 at 10:38 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          I think its comimg as well! πŸ™‚

  9. On May 19, 2020 at 9:34 am,
    Matthew says:
    • On May 19, 2020 at 10:16 am,
      Glenfidish says:

      nice chart matt..Look like cad will eventually go and tag its high down the road at 1.10-1.11 resistance. long way up..

  10. On May 19, 2020 at 10:13 am,
    Excelsior says:

    While many PM stocks are ripping higher today in my portfolio, I was disappointed in MUX out of the gate and had added some yesterday. Then I saw the news that just hit, and realize they just can’t seem to get things right and sold out my whole position over the course of trading so far today. I’m going to find some different Gold producers that can get results, hit their guidance, and make it happen, but may still be undervalued. Anyone got any good ideas.

    I was thinking of Superior Gold but they’ve already moved quite a bit. Maybe I’ll just add more to Gold companies with Silver like Coeur or Americas Silver. I considered Maya Gold & Silver but it looks a bit overvalued here.

    • On May 19, 2020 at 10:15 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I like Rob and team and their assets but I’m just disappointed in these results, so I bailed.

      (MUX) McEwen Mining Reports Q1 2020 Results

      by @nasdaq on 19 May 2020

      Production was 29,200 gold ounces and 553,200 silver ounces, or 35,100 gold equivalent ounces(1) (GEOs)(see Table 1), at the average gold:silver price ratio for the quarter of 94:1.

      A non-cash impairment charge for the Gold Bar mine of $83.8 million was recorded during Q1. The write down is necessary because a change in the geological interpretation resulted in a substantial reduction in expected gold production over the life of mine (see the Gold Bar Mine section below for further details).

      A consolidated net loss of $99.2 million, or $0.25 per share, primarily due to a $83.8 million impairment adjustment for the Gold Bar mine and $6.3 million spent on exploration and advanced projects. Before the impairment adjustment the net loss is $15.4 million.

      The Grey Fox Indicated gold resource estimate has increased by 43% to 888,000 gold ounces at 7.1 g/t, with an additional 173,000 gold ounces at 6.6 g/t in the Inferred category.

      Each of our mine sites are navigating the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Black Fox, Gold Bar, and San JosΓ© mines were temporarily suspended at the onset of emergency measures imposed in Ontario, Nevada, and Argentina.

      • On May 19, 2020 at 10:18 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        Not sure how much truth to it there is but for year ex i kept hearing the shorts really attack that ticker. Just thinking out loud. I agree i would move onto others. Scorpio is alive guys lol woke up.. I got a good strong position in it ever since matt brought to my attention. Volume sucks though lol. It will take time

        • On May 19, 2020 at 10:41 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah I have some Scorpio Gold as well. Really I have quite a few Gold producers that have been doing well lately Argonaut, Roxgold, Jaguar, Northern Vertex, Harte, Mandalay, Anaconda, Hummingbird, and hybrid Silver/Gold companies like Coeur, Americas Gold & Silver, and Sierra Metals. I just recently sold K92 Mining and now McEwen and wanted another bold Small to Mid-tier gold producer with more liquidity to be able to trade.

          Glenfidish do you still like B2Gold? I’ve also considered get back into Teranga, or getting in Asanko (now Galiano) for a takeover play.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 10:54 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            I like B2 gold for mid to big money position. Unfortunately i dont buy in at stocks higher then 2-3 bucks just a rule i have..I tend to buy and hold longer then normal lol. Although as you know ive change my position since 2011..I trade intermediate bottoms and tops and also buy and hold for longer term.

            At this price range i personally wouldnt chase it.. Let it come back to you around 5 and change πŸ™‚ ..But your way better then me at charts. strong company non the less

          • On May 19, 2020 at 11:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks Glenfidish. Yeah, B2Gold is a bit large for me too, but I know you followed it for a while and I’ve always watched it from afar. Really I just want a time machine to go back and buy Wesdome about 2 years ago. Jeeez what a move that one has had. Same thing with Fiore Gold, (up, up, and away….)

            For now, I may go after Superior Gold or GoGold or just add to Silver producers, or better yet, may just sit on my hands and wait for a better opportunity to set up. πŸ™‚

            I did nibble at some Southern Silver (SSV) today since they have a large resource of ounces in the ground that hasn’t been fully appreciated by the marketplace like Discovery Metals or AbraPlata has lately.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 11:21 am,
            Wolfster says:

            I learned long ago that you own everything on my list Ex so I won’t bother. 😎. BTW I bought some brixton and scorpion today. No where near what Matthew has of course. Let the fun begin with those 2.

          • On May 19, 2020 at 11:27 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            HAHA good one wolfster!

            I think this company will outperform and in 1-2 will and should give some great returns. They are led by Joseph conway former iamgold. I personally like the directors and management teams.

            compass gold

          • On May 19, 2020 at 11:27 am,
            Glenfidish says:

            I mwant 1-2 years..

          • On May 19, 2020 at 4:13 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good one Wolfster. Ha!

            I’m always open to ideas amigo, and if you buy into certain stories, it is a nice confirmation, so please keep us posted on what you are liking for the Gold or Silver stocks.

    • On May 19, 2020 at 8:11 pm,
      buzz says:

      AUNFF might be worth having a good look at

      • On May 19, 2020 at 9:35 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yep, Aurcana has been on a roll lately! They are finally getting close to moving their RV mine into production.

        • On May 20, 2020 at 6:25 am,
          Glenfidish says:

          Hey ex,

          Good job staying in on aurcana! I took my double but could have and would have been a triple or more is long behind me lol. So praise to you if your still riding it..It closed its 65 cent gap.. A smart man once told me if it looks attainable on a chart never underestimate a wick. Id place a sell order on that 1.12 gap..

          Either way i will purchase some when it comes back to what should be support 38-42 level..