Dana Lyons Commentary – Thu 2 Jul, 2020

With such few sectors outperforming now is the time to stick to the leaders – This includes gold stocks

Dana Lyons kicks off the editorials today by sharing his investing strategy for these highly selective markets. Only a handful of sectors are actually up for the year but these are up a lot. The main sector leaders include tech, bio-tech, healthcare, and gold stocks.

Also click here for his subscriber site where you get more specific trading advice.

Click here to follow Dana on Twitter


Comments:
  1. On July 2, 2020 at 9:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Eric Balchunas @EricBalchunas on Twitter – June 1, 2020

    “$GLD actually edged all those Fed-induced bond ETFs for the Q2 flow crown. The bigger story tho is just how unusually conservative this Top 10 list for a quarter in which SPX was up 26%. Besides $QQQ, not the party atmosphere you’d expect.”

    https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1278346202195648514

    • On July 2, 2020 at 10:24 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hugh Hendry on the Need for Chaos, Radicalizing the Fed

      CloudFin – June 29, 2020

      https://youtu.be/XYHuJDMcHTs

  2. On July 2, 2020 at 9:55 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Mark Magarian: The Fed’s Actions are Unprecedented for Gold, Silver, Uranium and Oil

    Palisade Radio – June 30, 2020

    https://youtu.be/Sj2jGrCRzC4

  3. On July 2, 2020 at 10:00 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Pure Gold Mining (PGM) – Nowhere Near Peak. Kirkland Lake 2?

    CRUX Investor – June 30, 2020 #VIDEO

    “Pure Gold Mining has immense, high-grade gold potential. The company is fully funded ($100M) for its aggressive exploration plans, alongside the CAPEX for its flagship PureGold Mine, which will be pouring gold by the end of the year.”

    “Phase 1 is nearing completion, while phase 2 offers a significant gold exploration upside, with possible M&A some way down the road.”

    “It’s a fascinating gold mining story with extremely high-grade gold and a sensible phased business model at its core.”

    https://youtu.be/2ZnMK-JUkZU

  4. On July 2, 2020 at 10:20 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold Inc. Announces Further High Grade Gold Mineralization Between Baltic and Baltic Deeps

    24 Jun 2020

    – Continues to demonstrate potential continuity of mineralization between Baltic and Baltic Deeps Zones
    – Drill hole UDD22310 intersected 40.4 g Au/t over 6.50 metres including 232.0 g Au/t over 0.90 metres
    – Drill hole UDD22309 intersected 12.4 g Au/t over 4.10 metres
    – Mineralization remains open both up and down dip and along strike

    https://www.superior-gold.com/investors/news/superior-gold-inc-announces-further-high-grade-go-122593/

    • On July 2, 2020 at 10:23 am,
      Excelsior says:

      (AR) Argonaut Gold and (ALO) Alio Gold Complete Merger to Create North American Diversified Intermediate Gold Producer

      by @nasdaq on 1 Jul 2020

      Pete Dougherty, President and CEO of Argonaut Gold, stated: “By combining Argonaut with Alio, we have created a diversified, intermediate gold producer with four producing mines, an enviable growth asset pipeline and increased capital markets scale. On behalf of the entire Argonaut Gold team I would like to personally welcome Ms. Paula Rogers and Mr. Stephen Lang to the Board of Directors.”

      https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/argonaut-gold-and-alio-gold-complete-merger-to-create

  5. On July 2, 2020 at 10:29 am,
    Matthew says:

    Since bottoming just 2 weeks ago, BBB was up as much as 73% today and up as much as 72% vs IPT since June 10th. This is the action I expected which is why BBB was my focus recently. AXU and USA each gained about 28% since the 15th. BBB didn’t lag its peers for any negative reason many weeks ago, each stock simply has its own circumstances and cycles to contend with. In BBB’s case, it moved up much more than its peers last summer (much more than quadrupling) and later had a lot of new shares to digest following the “4 months and a day” hold on them.
    The bigger the move up, the bigger the move down when supportive conditions go away (like silver reversing and heading down).

    It’s easy to see why selling came in where it did today as BBB hit fork resistance:
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p72340030628&a=777823275

    • On July 2, 2020 at 10:35 am,
      Matthew says:

      I still have 1.08 million shares, fwiw (and my IPT position is still worth more).
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p47048760781&a=705725762

      • On July 2, 2020 at 10:52 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Agreed. IPT is a much larger weighting in my portfolio as well than BBB, and rightly so as they Impact Silver solid and well run Silver producer with improving margins as Silver prices rise, and about the purest play leverage to Silver there is for the producers. Also Impact is small enough in market cap and production output that their exploration results really move the needle much more than on the larger market cap producers.

        Ever Upward!

      • On July 2, 2020 at 11:36 am,
        John Kruschke says:

        You bring up a good point Mathew.
        Another consideration of holding a large block of stock is the liquidity when you decide to unload some.
        Percentage gains are nice for comparison, but so is the size of the float and the ability to move when the time comes.

        • On July 2, 2020 at 11:52 am,
          Excelsior says:

          The size of the float and liquidity is far better in the larger stocks that were mentioned like AXU or USAS than in BBB. The risks are higher in a more thinly traded stock that when one exits a large block of stock that it will drag the shareprice down lower, like what we saw in IPT or JAG last year when large funds exited their positions.

          The best hope for an exit in a more thinly traded stock is a liquidity event like amazing drill results, an economic milestone crossed, or a takeover bid.

          For Brixton, their liquidity event will likely be this summer when they release their Hog Heaven drill results in July/Aug and then put out their Thorn drill results in Aug/Sep. That will be a good time to ride the shares up and exit a larger position.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:01 pm,
            John Kruschke says:

            Good points Ex. Another consideration is the time value of your money. Say if you have to wait 3-4 months for assays, the stock may move but to move a large block will take the assay results to afford the sell opportunity if your position is of any size.
            I like the small float stocks because of the torque when good news comes. I will add it is not for everybody.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:05 pm,
            Matthew says:

            So now it’s ok to compare to AXU and USA? 👊😄

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed Johnk on the value of your money, holding period “opportunity costs.” Yes, small floats allow for an out-sized move if good news hits for sure. However, as for “the ability to move when the time comes” that is easier in the more liquid stocks.

            Matthew, you must have misunderstood the point I was making as I was still contrasting BBB (a thinly traded explorer and early developer) as much different that more liquid established quality companies like AXU and USAS. The are apples and oranges and aren’t in the same league 😉

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:27 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Goes without saying! 🤷‍♂️😉

          • On July 3, 2020 at 1:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ha! OK, well apparently it doesn’t go without saying as you started this thread
            comparing the price movement in drill plays to near-term producers in development, and well established producers up above. Then you come back with smart-ass fist bumps making the leap that I’m trying to compare them as peers, when I was illustrating how different they are in float/liquidity. I can see why you have that confused face though.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 7:00 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I compared the shares that I did because all are speculative choices that appeal to people on this site and BBB is most likely the LEAST RISKY of the three despite having more leverage to silver. Our money can’t be in two places at once and those who chose Brixton while you were airing out all that expertise of yours are better off. You and the rest of Brixton’s expert critics on CEO.CA marked the low perfectly.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 7:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I didn’t mark any low as I’ve been in Brixton since early 2016, long before you started popping your mouth off about it, and understand how unfocused and poorly managed their strategy has been the last 4 years.

            I wasn’t selling down there or advising to sell, so I have no idea what the hell you are talking about “marked the low perfectly.” I was perfectly clear multiple times I’ll be waiting for the Hog Heaven and Thorn drill results to come out over the next few months for the shares to rise in price before selling to greater fools.

            I’ve been perfectly clear BBB will be heading higher and agreed that technically it was due for a bounce. I had a few people direct message me over at ceo.ca asking if they should sell last month and mentioned absolutely not it is going to head higher when those that don’t really get their lack of strategy fall all over themselves when they drill into a known high grade deposit in Montana to bring market Joy. They’ll likely then hit a few drill holes at Thorn, and people will get all excited, and that’s when I’ll be selling. I’d much rather put my money in other companies with a more clear strategy and a clue, but I’m not walking away from easy gains, and will rotate out at the intermediate term high. Thanks for the strawman attack though. Cheers!

          • On July 3, 2020 at 9:11 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Strawman my ass. You were extremely critical about the management and even said you’d be looking to exit when it went up (not just sell into strength to take profits). I don’t doubt for one second that a KER reader or two sold all or part of their position(s) based on your bogus assessment. If you knew charts, you’d see what’s wrong with your story-driven assumptions and that’s in general, not regarding Brixton.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 9:16 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Re: ” I’d much rather put my money in other companies with a more clear strategy and a clue…” Right. A “clue.” Shad knows better than everyone.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 9:49 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes… strawman your ass sounds about right. Give it a rest Matthew.

            I never advised or recommended selling at the time of CEO Gary’s botched interview with Crux Investor, where he demonstrated once again what a lack of strategy the Brixton team has had as has moving forward, so don’t put words in my mouth.

            I actually agreed with the charts you posted that it was technically due for a bounce and the indicators were about about turn up, with several of them crossing up to a bullish setup. When we discussed Brixton’s failed strategy over the last 4 years, I said several times during that discussion that I’d be selling into the strength of the Hog Heaven and Thorn drill results when they came out in the summer from July-August, which obviously is selling into strength.

            Matthew you can defend the Brixton team all you want but they are about to drill into their Hog Heaven deposit where there is already known mineralization and put out results that shouldn’t surprise anyone, but the sheeple will fall for it. Gary said in the interview he was doing this to highlight to the market what is in the ground. So it is marketing fluff and window dressing where they are going to put drills where they already know there is mineralization. Next they are going to put out a few holes from Thorn in August-September, but who gives a shit? They aren’t nearly a large enough company to work on a project like Thorn, and in his own words they’d really need $10 Million a year for 10 years to properly explore it and I don’t feel like hanging around that long waiting for that amount of dilution. Their only hope with Thorn is to attract a much larger and much more capable company to JV that project with. I’m still not sure if they or anyone know what the hell BBB is doing with Langis or Atlin and their acquisitions and prior work are confusing if they are not going to at least advance resource estimates and a PEA on them, if that’s so they should never have bought them in the first place. That’s the reality with Brixton and is like exploring ADD from their team.

            Yes the technical picture for Brixton is currently bullish, and it should be rebounding back some after such dismal performance for the last few years compared to their peers.

            The stock will absolutely move when they post the drill results, as the drill results news is what attracts investors to these exploration companies in the first place and why there are buyers placing bids that result in the closing prices on charts. Most investors are not chasing around explore cos based on their charts, they are piling into companies like Great Bear, Silvercrest, Wallbridge, Amex, Freegold, etc… for their drilling news. If Brixton puts out good holes, the stock will move and the lemmings will come piling in, and this will validate the technical thesis. Period.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 11:22 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I did not put words in your mouth. Mine was a logical conclusion based on all that you had to say. Learn how to read.

            The fact that you’re impressed with that Crux host makes perfect sense to me. The guy’s a buffoon that has no idea how to assess value and no idea that he has no idea. He did a poor job interviewing Fred Davidson as well but you have to know something to know that.

            Of course, like I said, you know best. Not me, not Gary and not definitely not Eric Sprott and his team.

          • On July 3, 2020 at 11:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            FFS Mathew you are exhausting. No, it wasn’t a logical conclusion from you at all to come after me, insult my understanding of TA in such a condescending way,and then put words in my mouth about whey you thought I was supposed to sell my BBB (like you knew better about when I was going to sell my Brixton). That’s nuts dude.

            Ironically, based your comment about “learning to read,” — well, if you could learn to read you would have seen I stated several times in my logical breakdown of 4 years of failed strategy and false starts from Brixton using their actual news releases and showing the dismal chart performance, then you’d have read that I’d be waiting for the stock to rise on the Hog Heaven and Thorn drill results. I realize you likely didn’t read my responses back, and in your arrogance you think you know when I was supposed to have sold based on my comments better than me the one that will be doing the selling. Classic bullshit logic and the lack of reading was clearly on you.

            Then you go into an attack on me that I think I know better than everyone else, nonsense not worth getting back into, when we are analyzing stocks and sharing both facts, trends, reactions by the marketplace and charts on BBB and hundreds of other mining companies. If you think Eric is the best then go buy every stock he owns by that wacko logic. I’m in plenty of stocks Sprott is in and was in before him in most of them.

            Matthew – I’m entitled to have whatever damn opinion I want about how well a company is being run, my confidence in management, to point out their past successes and failures, to use their own press releases to make certain points based on facts, and just like anyone else and don’t need your approval or anyone else’s to form or state these opinions.

            Good lord Matthew, you are riddled with political opinions, often negative opinions on people, opinions on companies or sectors , and on current events, and often come across as the know-it-all, so this critique about me thinking “I know better” coming from you is pretty rich and hilarious.

            You then go on to dismiss that I actually do have a fairly good grasp on technical analysis (but you act like I’m clueless and you are so wise, which is bullshit and you know it), but that doesn’t stop you from being insulting. I never disputed the technical set up in Brixton or any other stock or ETF for that matter, and . Give me a break, you are the pot calling the kettle black and don’t even seem to realize it. It’s not a surprise though as you are dismissive to anyone that dares to disagree with you. Talk about somebody that thinks he knows it all.

            You love to take shots at one of the few contributors here that actually looks at most of your charts but also understands them and comments back on them where I noticed specifically what you were showcasing. I do think you are a brilliant technician and I follow and learn from dozens of different technicians and their disciplines of TA, in addition to doing my own. Your need to constantly grand-stand about how much better your analysis is because of your technical analysis, and childish impulse to put down how little you think I understand or use TA, just shows how much you don’t understand, and it quite disappointing and unnecessary.

            I’m done discussing this with you and would ask you lay off with the insults. Neither you nor I knows everything, and neither has all the answers. I’m willing to admit I’m a student of life and learning everyday, but I’m entitled to share my analysis and opinions just like you are, and will not apologize for sharing these on a resource investing blog. I don’t come after you posts doing face palms and belittling you, acting condescending and I have personally tried to be civil and respond back genuinely to your posts, but you always end up getting ugly and insulting, and it really is beneath you.

          • On July 4, 2020 at 1:10 am,
            Matthew says:

            I’m exhausting? You post ten books a day “FFS” and I did not put words in your mouth. You expressed very negative feelings about Brixton which may have easily caused some to sell. That’s all. Get it?

            Be offended if you must but you assume that you know way more than you do. No one that truly understands the charts (nature) would insist that they know why a stock moves as you do routinely. Your “logical breakdown” of Brixton’s “failed strategy and false starts” is just nonsense. The action over the last four years was completely consistent with the sector as a whole and not “dismal” relatively speaking. In fact, it was quite positive that it was unable to take out its 2015 OR 2016 lows (didn’t even come close) despite the wildness of the March crash AND silver taking out its 2015 low by over $2/15%. It is even more impressive considering it was coming off of a 2,300% vertical gain. That’s a LOT of stored selling energy to send it the other way yet no new low.
            I think your assessment contained plenty of emotion since you probably rode it all the way down from the 2016 high. Either way, considering the action in silver and the rest of the sector, there’s been NOTHING wrong with Brixton’s price action since silver turned down 4 years ago.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=5&dy=0&id=p16133611386&a=643350638

            Those who truly understand the charts use them exclusively or very close to exclusively.

            Yes, everyone has the right to voice their opinions which is what I am doing. It may not feel like it to you but I’ve kept my mouth shut 99% of the time. It takes special BS to cause me to post this way and I still lament doing so which is why my efforts are short in length as well as explanation. I’m tired of it all.

          • On July 4, 2020 at 2:17 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I’m definitely sick of it as well Matthew. .

            You wrote: “You expressed very negative feelings about Brixton which may have easily caused some to sell. That’s all. Get it?”

            > Seriously? If people buy or sell something only based on what people are discussing on an online forum, then that is 100% on them. Investing is about personal accountability not blaming someone else saying something that made someone buy or sell.

            Everyone should take personal responsibility for doing their own due diligence so I’m not going to comment on a forum of ideas all worried about who may buy or sell as a result. I never said to buy or sell and don’t give a shit what other people may have done or not done. I can express whatever negative or positive feelings, analysis, or information I want

            Next you wrote: “Your “logical breakdown” of Brixton’s “failed strategy and false starts” is just nonsense. The action over the last four years was completely consistent with the sector as a whole and not “dismal” relatively speaking.”

            > Thanks for your opinion Matthew. I have my opinion as well, but I also “posted 10 books” in previous Brixton discussion breaking down 4 years of their news releases where their guidance was often followed by actions that made no sense to what they had just declared to the market that they were going to do. I showed how their website & batting order of projects as to which were highlighted as primary changed constantly, and they got off into Diamonds, hyped the Cobalt story when it was trending, then wanted to spin the Cobalt assets out, but then changed their mind again and held onto the, they picked up Atlin and Hog Heaven without ever explaining the plan or why, they used funds to chase multiple projects at once not really advancing any of them, and compared to many peers did more poorly. You’d said the Langis & Hudson Bay projects weren’t the cause of the massive outperformance of Brixton in 2016 to almost all other silver or gold stocks and acted like that happened after the big move, so I took time and showed you news release by news release exactly when they picked up Langis & Hudson Bay and did further land acquisitions, which was FeB – July 2016 and was why I got positioned in the company along with many other investors. I’m not armchair quarterbacking this with a chart 4 years later, I was in the freaking stock back then guy. You started going on in the prior discussion about all their metal in Hog Heaven being the optionality that caused them to rise in share price so aggressively, which was not the case and went back and took the time to point out BBB didn’t even purchase Hog Heaven until 2017 long after the 2016 surge was over, so it had nothing to do with why they ran up in 2016. Instead of thanking me for helping you understand their story better, you got defensive and got nasty in that conversation as well. Ironically, like normal, you think you know better though (but then accuse me of that). It’s ridiculous.

            Next you write: “you assume that you know way more than you do.”

            > Who the hell are you to judge whether or not I or anyone else knows about anything?

            I could just easily turn that same statement right back around on you Matthew, and it would be very fitting. “You assume that you know way more than you do.”

            Whether it comes to your pompous posts on politics as if your position is the only one to hold, or your degrading of what you feel others understand about TA (even when it is devoid of truth or what someone knows), to your opinions that you believe are facts on various commodity sectors, or most recently when you think I said I’d be selling my Brixton (instead of when I really said quite clearly that I’d be selling post drilling news this summer) – there are countless areas where you come across the exact same way in your own echo-chamber of superiority, with yourself as the judge of what is true.

            Next you wrote: “I think your assessment contained plenty of emotion since you probably rode it all the way down from the 2016 high.”

            > Thanks for your opinion and trying to paint me a jaded bagholder, but if you “knew how to read” I’ve covered with you about a dozen times in multiple threads previously that I bought in early 2016, rode the stock up and trimmed part of the position for about 2 bagger and another chunk for a 7 bagger, but yes, I held onto a core position, which I traded around partial positions of 25-50% dozens of times over the last 4 years. It’s amazing to me that you just discussed how you did that with JAG, but act like you are the only one around here that knows how to read a chart or to trade. I was underwater on my cost basis for my remaining Brixton position for over a year – closer to 2, but was steadily scalping gains on trades to lower my cost basis, and just bought more in early January of this year and even added the very beginning of June. Now my current position is profitable and I’ll be selling it after the coming Hog Heaven & Thorn drilling news is absorbed by the marketplace and could see it being a 2-3 bagger from that just in the next few months. This has nothing to do with the outsized profits I already booked in 2016, but when I finish selling (likely in September) I will have done very well in Brixton. With 20/20 hindsight, I would have sold out everything in 2016 though, and not have subjected myself to the holding opportunity cost of Brixton until 2020 and skipped 2017, 2018, and 2019 in favor of other Silver and Gold companies that crushed BBB during most of that time period.

            Also the fact I’ll have made a nice chunk of money and fantastic returns on BBB when I exit doesn’t change the fact that their company strategy has been shite the last few years.

            Lastly again with your TA superiority complex and opinions masquerading as facts you wrote: “Those who truly understand the charts use them exclusively or very close to exclusively.”

            That is only your opinion Matthew, not a fact, and not reality. There are tons of technicians that do both fundamental analysis and technical analysis. It would be accurate to say that YOU use charts very close to exclusively and are now painting everyone with that same brush. Get over yourself. You are not the only one that understands charts or TA. You are very good at TA, but your ego regarding what you think you know versus what others know is really off-putting.

    • On July 2, 2020 at 10:43 am,
      Excelsior says:

      BBB has had a nice move up recently, and I finally have a profitable position in it after it has lagged for far longer than last summer. Still, it is nice to see it moving higher finally.

      AXU is a developer and near-term producer and USAS are multi-mine producesr so they aren’t going to have as much torque to the upside as a drill play like BBB.

      BBB is a Gold & Silver explorer and earlier stage developer, so it would be be better to compare them to other similar stage companies like Kootenay, SilverOne, or Discovery Metals.

      My focus has been on Discover Metals most of this year and it has delivered with the drill bit and been on quite a roll.

      Here is a BBB:DSV chart:

      http://schrts.co/GdwAVCaY

      • On July 2, 2020 at 10:45 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here is a BBB:KTN chart comparing Brixton to Kootenay:

        http://schrts.co/jPneCegu

        • On July 2, 2020 at 10:54 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Here is a BBB:SVE chart comparing Brixton to Silver One:

          http://schrts.co/tjgSGgcd

          • On July 2, 2020 at 10:58 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Here is a BBB:MMG chart comparing Brixton to Metallic Minerals:

            http://schrts.co/hImGSwKU

      • On July 2, 2020 at 10:57 am,
        Matthew says:

        BBB smoked those three last summer as well and beat two out of the three since the March low. However, my point was really that all the concern that so many retail investors have shown for many months stemmed from ignorance so I’m glad many have probably sold. “They” thought it was underperforming because they didn’t understand why it might move differently than others.

        Another reason it topped this morning:
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p78526496059

        • On July 2, 2020 at 11:03 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, Brixton has finally started to move the last few months, but it was dead money to losing money for a long period of time (years not weeks or months). While it may have had small periods of outperformance last summer and recently, over the last 1-2 years, the other primary silver developers and explorers smoked BBB.

          I still hold BBB and expect that it will surge on drill results from Hog Heaven and Thorn over the next few months, and that will be the time to sell into that liquidity. It will likely outperform it’s peers on that drilling “joy” as CEO Gary expects, but longer term (1-2 years) I’d still expect to see the other companies with a more clear plan to development and then production to outperform.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:08 am,
            Excelsior says:

            What would change the dynamics for BBB is if they brought on a larger JV partner that was actually capable of moving a project like Thorn or Hog Heaven down the road to development and production. Otherwise they are just playing the optionality of rising metals prices and poking a few holes in each of their 4 projects.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Brixton may benefit from taking on a more Prospect Generator model where they JV out all 4 projects and then acquire a few more projects.

            The other thing that may help BBB is if they sold 1 or 2 of their projects to other companies for a nice return on investment and narrowed their scope of focus and work to just 1-2 projects. That would be a nice win for them as well.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:14 am,
            Matthew says:

            A quadruple+ in a “small period” is exactly what I’m after. I didn’t hold it during the 1-2 years that that it underperformed. The same goes for Jag. I never owned a single share when it was way overvalued and run by criminals. I bought it for the first time in 2016 before Sprott did when it was much cheaper. Timing is everything so I’ve been 100% out of Jag several times since 2016.
            I don’t get the preoccupation with development and production, especially in a bull market, and would sell most if not all of my Brixton if it goes down that path. I don’t need the added risks and potentially dead capital that comes with such an approach.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:30 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I agree on a few of those points, and owned JAG in 2010-2012 and made money then lost money, but started repositioning in 2016 in front of Sprott as well, and was quite vocal about buying JAG in Jan & Feb 2016 so I’m with you there. I also faded out of some of that position latter that summer and added big when it had that large fund liquidating it last year and am still up over 200% on my current position and cost basis, but have traded around the core position over a dozen times the last few years so there were other smaller profits that were scalped for 30-50% periodically. If I included all the gains since re-initiating a position in JAG since early 2016 I’m likely up 700% in it, so it’s been a strong performer for sure.

            As for the preoccupation with development and production, it shows that a company has a strategy and is advancing its projects to where either it is moving them forward, or they have economic studies in place that are attractive enough that a larger producer would want to acquire 1 project or their whole company.

            As just mentioned above, many of the advanced explorers and developers like Alexco, Kootenay Silver, Discovery Metals, Silver One, Dolly Varden, Metallic Minerals etc… have moved the ball down the field and still have had plenty of appreciation and this actually de-risked their projects, not increased their risk.

            Yes, I agree with you that there is the orphan phase of development where a company raises capital, gets permits, does more studies where things get stagnant (like what happened to Pure Gold the last 3 years), and I’d likely sell out during that phase as well, but Brixton is nowhere close to that and they’d be well served to at least get some economic studies going on Langis/Hudson Bay, Thorn, or and updated one on Hog Heaven. This is a means of the market and analysts valuing their economics and thus a way to increase their market cap, so I don’t understand the preoccupation with just having them be an optionality play only getting rated higher on rising metals prices alone. Regardless if they had a larger resource estimate at all their projects then there would be more known and defined ounces in the ground if that is one’s only interest in their projects. This is why Discovery Metals is doing so well, because they are continually adding to a larger and larger deposit size and it is now on many people’s radar.

            There is also a time, after the orphan phase, where developers like Alexco or Pure Gold are moving towards production where they have another 100-300% rise in their “Golden Runway” phase and that is far from risky and more guaranteed returns, so there is definitely a place for advanced developers moving towards production in one’s portfolio.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:53 am,
            Matthew says:

            Drilling holes to prove more ounces is fine and good but developing with the intent to go into production most certainly does add risks, tremendous risks. Such development is only occasionally something I seek (like when I bought GORO after its IPO at $1.10 in 2006).
            Aside from some drilling, companies with good properties/projects don’t have to do a thing to deliver fantastic gains. Rising metals prices and bull market sentiment will “advance” them just fine. I’ve had quite a few companies taken over and I can’t remember a single one that was in the process of attempting to go into production on its own (to be fair, that could easily be a memory problem).

          • On July 2, 2020 at 11:56 am,
            Matthew says:

            One more thing worth pondering is the potential for a company like Brixton to wait for a bull market before it drills its best targets. Such would be very wise in this extremely cyclical sector even though the average retail guy wouldn’t understand the approach one bit. Of course I have no evidence that any company has ever done that but frankly they’d be dumb not to in most cases.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:10 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As stated above, during the “Orphan Phase” on the Lassonde Curve, yes the companies are boring and dilute to raise capital for development and that isn’t a time to be in them. But this is not the same thing as an exploration company graduating to a development stage company by putting out a meaningful resource estimate and then PEA which outlines to the marketplace how economic a deposit will be, and this doesn’t prevent those ounces in the ground from getting valued higher on higher metals prices.

            Also, as mentioned above, there is a point in a developer’s trajectory where the capital is raised and they are moving towards production in a 1 year window where the developer is actually the most derisked and still goes up another 100%-300% based on Lobo Tigre/Louis James research into about 50-70 companies that did that over the last decade. All one has to do is look at the moves in companies like Alexco or Pure Gold lately, or what happened for Atlantic Gold and Wesdome as they appreciated quite handsomely from developer to producer during that window. Steppe Gold just did the same thing.

            As for Developers with solid economics studies (PEA, PFS, FS) and capital raises in process as they are moving towards production we see takeovers like this all the time. Look at what happened for Newcastle Gold, Dalradian, Barkerville, Continental Gold, Avnel Gold, Northern Empire, Merrex Gold, Savary Gold, Pershing Gold, Golden Reign, Reservoir Minerals, etc… There are many more but the point is quite clear that solid Developers are prime takeover candidates.

            I could easily see Orezone, Falco Resources, Sabina Gold & Silver, Midas Gold, Corvus Gold, Maritime Gold, Bluestone Resources, Treasury Metals, Triumph Gold, Probe Metals, Dolly Varden, Discovery Metals, Metallic Minerals, Orex Minerals, Orca Gold, and Gold Standard Ventures being acquired by the big boys during this coming metals cycle.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:20 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Even companies well on their way to move from developer to producer (like Minera Alamos or Pure Gold) may get picked off by a larger producer after moving to production, like what we saw with Atlantic Gold, Avesoro, or Rye Patch Gold.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
            Matthew says:

            There will be no shortage of companies getting acquired but that’s one more thing I’m not concerned about. My best gains have not come from takeovers and since I’m not a billionaire, I don’t require a takeover in order to exit my positions.

            I would hate for IPT to get acquired too soon but I’m afraid that it probably will.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:36 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Of course there comes a point where risks start to fall but development is very risky before that point.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:37 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I’m not impressed with Doug’s “mini-me” btw.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            I don’t disagree that sometimes (depending on where things are in the metals cycle) that a takeover can rob further gains. However, Gold bottomed in Dec 2015 and has had quite a move higher already for 4 years, so many of those developers have already had nice moves for those that were positioned in them, and the takeover will provide one final move higher of 40-60% percent after already having had nice multi-bagger runs. These Developers can also still move higher with the optionality of higher gold or silver prices and keep on moving up with the tide until they are taken over. Ideally one wants to see that happen for a while before the takeover happens, but if a company gets bought out, you book the win, exit on the liquidity event, and pick another company to ride up. I’ll take a takeover win whenever they happen, and I often buy distressed companies at their lows hoping for a takeover (like what I did with Crocodile Gold/Newmarket, Klondex, Richmont, and initially my target with TMAC – but I entered and exited in close proximity afraid they may actually go under and they were taken over right after.)

            As for the smaller producers, yeah, a number may get acquired that I hold like Northern Vertex, Roxgold, Anaconda, Hummingbird, Jaguar, Harte, Superior Gold, Mandalay Resources, Galiano Gold, Blackham Gold Resource Corp (GORO) etc… but I’ve already got nice gains in all of them (except Harte & Blackham which have been a mess, but I invested for the turn-around story), and there are others I don’t own like Steppe Gold, Fiore Gold, Alkane Resources, Troy Resources, Sandfire, Karora Resources, etc… that could also be nice takeover targets.

            As for the smaller Silver Producers, I don’t believe there is as much interest but maybe companies like Impact, Santacruz Silver, Avino Silver & Gold, Great Panther, and Maya Gold & Silver could get acquired. I don’t see the M&A as hot in the Silver space though. Most of the Silver producers have actually been the ones doing the acquiring into Gold companies (like Hecla, Coeur, Hochschild, Great Panther, First Majestic, Americas Silver, Excellon, and Silvercorp’s recent failed bid on Guyana Goldfields). I wouldn’t like to see the smaller silver producers get taken out here as Silver has not run nearly as much as the Gold has and there is still much more catching up to do in the Silver space. However, if it happened there are no shortage of other opportunies to rotate a solid win into.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 12:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As for Doug’s “mini-me” the point was that Lobo did the research and evaluated the facts and stats on developers moving towards production and it was overwhelming 90%+ of companies had a 100-300% rise in what he dubbed their “Golden Runway”. This coincides with the 2nd wave up on the Lassonde Curve, and points out that after the boring “Orphan Phase” of development comes the exciting anticipation of first Gold pour.

            We saw that exact same pattern play out with Wesdome, Atlantic Gold, recently with Steppe Gold and Victoria Gold, and we are seeing it playing out currently with Minera Alamos, Alexco, and Pure Gold as they all initiated their Golden runways last year and have been surging higher since with those companies up 200% off their lows last year. Clearly there are nice gains to be made in Developers when many Explorers still haven’t gotten up off the mat yet.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 1:29 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Impact would get acquired more for its properties than its production.
            The juniors must be traded and if one is good at it, the small stuff almost always beat the bigger companies during a sector-wide move up regardless of where everyone’s balls are on the field.

          • On July 2, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed on both points Matthew.

            I’m still most excited about what IPT has not discovered yet on their property, and the smaller market cap companies will rise more than the larger market cap companies as a general rule of thumb.

  6. On July 2, 2020 at 10:37 am,
    Matthew says:
  7. On July 2, 2020 at 12:56 pm,
    David says:

    Strange day. Inconsistencies in miners. Someone wants PMs not to detract from the General Markets going into 4th. That’s all I get.

  8. On July 2, 2020 at 1:02 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up with Eric Sprott

    Sprott Money – July 2, 2020 #AudioInterview

    https://youtu.be/sdZrYCG_LMM

    • On July 2, 2020 at 1:23 pm,
      Execelsior says:

      Some good comments from Eric Sprott regarding Amex, Freegold Ventures, Discovery Metals, and Alexco.

  9. On July 2, 2020 at 3:31 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Overall some nice moves and green on the screen with the Silver Explorers & Developers:

    Symbol – Silver Explorers & Developers – Daily Change Chg %

    GGX.V GGX Gold Corp. +25.93%
    SDR.V Stroud Resources Ltd. +25.00%
    BRC.V Blackrock Gold Corp. +24.24%
    CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +23.53%
    DSV.V Discovery Metals Corp. +20.95%
    MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +19.30%
    GOG.V Golden Tag Resources Ltd. +16.00%
    DEF.V Defiance Silver Corp. +15.22%
    CD.V Cantex Mine Development Corp. +12.79%
    AHNR Athena Silver Corporation +12.31%
    NBR.V Nubian Resources Ltd. +12.00%
    WRM.AX White Rock Minerals Ltd +11.11%
    GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +11.11%
    VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +10.61%
    SSV.V Southern Silver Exploration Corp. +9.09%
    CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. +7.69%
    BBB.V Brixton Metals Corporation +6.52%
    RRI.V Riverside Resources Inc. +6.06%
    AZT.V Aztec Minerals Corp. +5.48%
    SVB.TO Silver Bull Resources, Inc. +5.26%
    ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Corp. +5.17%
    SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +5.00%
    BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +4.13%
    ASL.V Argentum Silver Corp. +3.85%
    KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc +1.37%
    MMG.V Metallic Minerals Corp. +1.20%
    AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +0.89%

  10. On July 2, 2020 at 3:52 pm,
    David says:

    US didn’t have as good of a day as they took back most of what we gained during Canada Day. Up to Canada to make a silver miner run while Jamie Dimon out buying dogs, burgers and beer without a mask on.

    • On July 2, 2020 at 5:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, I guess it’s up to those trading the Canadian tickers to take these stocks for a run while the US markets are closed tomorrow for Independence Day. Ever Upward!

      • On July 2, 2020 at 5:12 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I checked on the US OTC ticker for Discovery Metals (DSVMF) and at one point it was up to $1.04 today which would have been a $.20 gain on the open at $.84 and a 23.8% gain at the highwater mark today. It did close down lower than that only up + $0.0831 (+9.89% gain on the day).

        We’ll see how tomorrow goes, although the trading volume will likely be thinner.

  11. On July 2, 2020 at 6:28 pm,
    David says:

    Discovery was having one of its better days and I was hoping it would hold. But 9% was good. They hit Great Bear and it will normally do better at close so the natives don’t get too restless. Not today…probably so someone could get a discount. The mixed bag on the miners is always a red flag showing intervention. Either the miners and metals are good or they are not. This is something that shouldn’t swing day to day as PMs and miners reflect the long term weakness of the economy…whether dollar or debt or corruption. It started in 1913 with the Fef and accelerated with Nixon snd the gold window. Lies beget lies and now they are finally at “peak lies” like “peak oil”. We have to experience day to day fluctuations but we don’t have to rationalize them. Onward and upward.

    • On July 2, 2020 at 9:53 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Gold has been consistently strong lately and reflects the long term weakness projected in the future economy, the massive national debt loads, the Fed printing to infinity, and the low to negative interest rate environment globally. Gold is real money and the currency of last resort, so it has been garnering a strong bid for some time now.

      The PM miners, however, are still just equities and companies achieving mixed results and have much more volatility in daily/weekly price swings, but that is just par for the course with resources stocks. Most of the smaller miners are not on most larger institutional funds radars, so it is more likely just traders taking some profits from their recent nice moves higher, especially in the cases of Discovery or Great Bear, rather than any direct price intervention.

      Some traders over at ceo.ca were discussing selling some of their winners today after nice gains, and that is likely why there was a pullback later in the trading session in many mining stocks, which is quite normal and to be expected. Personally I don’t read much more into today’s action than that, and overall my portfolio was cumulatively flat most of the day with barely any significant changes up or down most of the trading session. Overall it was rather a boring trading session.

      Maybe next week things will get a bit more interesting. Until then….

  12. On July 3, 2020 at 6:43 am,
    David says:

    No way I can know for sure other than the POTUS press conference came too close in time to the BLS numbers and his words didn’t ring true. Simultaneously to the release of the numbers there was a large sale of paper PMs. All indicating inside coordination on the pending of release of reportedly false data based on unemployment claims. Looking forward to Canada picking up the ball today and getting back to the bull market Monday, despite the pomp and circumstance of the political show. Intentionally altering or onfluencing the direction of markets used to be illegal.