David Erfle - Gold Market Commentary – Tue 14 Jul, 2020

The short vs long term outlook for gold and silver stocks

Dave Erfle joins me today to outline the short and long term outlooks for precious metals stocks.

The gold stocks have finally started to play catch-up to the rise in the gold price but there are some short term indicators that show the sector is overbought. This is a true sign of a bull market but it’s important to note that all bull markets have natural corrections.

When it comes to the long term outlook, there is a lot to be bullish about. We will hear from some central banks this week (the Bank of Canada, Japan, and EBC) which should continue to support the long term outlook of low rates which is positive for PMs.

Click here to visit Dave’s site – The Junior Miner Junky.


Comments:
  1. On July 14, 2020 at 12:57 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Mining Stock Fund Manager Dave Kranzler Talks Junior Gold Stocks

    MiningStockEducation – July 6, 2020 #AudioInterview

    0:00 Introduction
    0:40 Gold/Silver ratio and will silver outperform?
    9:27 Discovery Metals and when to sell?
    15:27 Better value in mid-cap producers now?
    19:03 Pure Gold Mining
    21:54 Reveals another Mining Stock Journal stock pick
    28:11 When should a junior pursue an upgraded OTC listing?

    https://youtu.be/dI2HNOwAWAg

    • On July 14, 2020 at 2:19 pm,
      Dick Tracy says:

      Ex, I think you have discussed Treasury Metals a number of times. DT

      • On July 14, 2020 at 6:48 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yes I have DT. I positioned in Treasury Metals because it looked like a greatly undervalued and ignored Gold Developer with known ounces in the ground and a great project. A few months back it started to wake up, but then they announced they were acquiring the Goldlund project from (FF)First Mining {which is adjacent to their Goliath project and really compliments it nicely}, and this news really got a lot more eyeballs on their company now.

        The combined assets look like a winner to me DT, and I agree with Dave Kranzler that they make a great takeover target from a larger producer for this metals cycle.

        __________________________________________

        (TML) (TSRMF) Treasury Metals Corporate Presentation (showing value of Goldlund acquisition)

        https://treasurymetals.com/site/assets/files/3968/tml-goldlund-proj-acquisition.pdf

        • On July 14, 2020 at 7:03 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          DT – I’ve said it before and will echo it again here, that I agree with Dave Kranzler’s point about (PGM) Pure Gold also being a takeover target, and could very much see them being scooped up over the next 12-18 months by a larger producer, as they work on bringing their mine in Red Lake forward into production.

          The PGM team has claimed they will pour first gold by Christmas, but I’m used to the vast majority of mining companies missing deadlines and this year has had a number of complications with the pandemic, so if it takes until Q1 for them to get into production, that is fine with me and give them more time for the economics of their project to keep getting valued higher into the rising metals prices.

          ____________________________________

          (PGM) (LRTNF) Pure Gold Mining – Corporate Presentation

          https://puregoldmining.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/presentation/file_upload/Pure_Gold_Slides_June_29_Final_B_07.10.20.pdf

          • On July 14, 2020 at 7:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Interesting enough, Treasury Metals Goliath project & their acquisition of Goldlund from First Mining is located very close to the action at Pure Gold/Evolution Mining/Great Bear in Red Lake, in Ontario. That is a very well-endowed mineral area.

          • On July 14, 2020 at 7:23 pm,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Yes Ex, I’m really excited about Pure Gold Mining, a few of my investing friends made jokes about their name but you made me aware of their potential. I wanted to buy in earlier but I was waiting for my daughter to purchase some at the same time, to share an interest with her. I told her at the time that I didn’t believe she had to worry about selling because the market would in all likely hood buy them out. I must check out Treasury Metals after watching Dave Kranzler, thanks for sharing. DT

          • On July 15, 2020 at 7:08 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Ex……..thanks for posting the info on Pure Gold……well worth the read……JMO

          • On July 15, 2020 at 8:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Absolutely DT & OOTB!

  2. On July 14, 2020 at 12:58 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    #2 How To Hedge Your Investment Portfolio – Peter Grosskopf, Sprott Inc.

    Crux Investor – July 14, 2020 #VIDEO Interview

    https://youtu.be/GceDqZZBj7A?t=1246

    • On July 14, 2020 at 2:07 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Cory & David Erfle – great interview today with many cogent points. I tend to agree with most of what David had to say.

    • On July 14, 2020 at 9:08 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Trading Gold Stock Promotions Can Be Extraordinarily Profitable says Rick Rule

      MiningStockEducation – July 14, 2020 #AudioInterview

      https://youtu.be/QQ17af059Hk

  3. On July 14, 2020 at 1:08 pm,
    Matthew says:

    The gold-silver ratio had a once-in-a-lifetime blow-off in March and silver is worth about 50% more gold in the few months since…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p03573203686&a=711322498

    • On July 14, 2020 at 1:10 pm,
      Matthew says:
    • On July 14, 2020 at 3:35 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      About time silver starting moving……way behind……should be $35 by now……

      • On July 14, 2020 at 5:53 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Silvers out performance of gold is refreshing to see. With the GSR now in the 93 handle, it has dropped over 30 points from the blowoff number 125 back in March. As the GSR continues to drop I would think it will do so at a slower rate in the mid-term due to none other than during pauses/pullbacks in the PMs markets, silver generally corrects more than gold. Not to mention both gold and silver, at least for the moment, are showing a tendency to move in tandem. So if this were to continue and the GSR drops another 30 odd points (say down to 63) in the next 4 months and gold increases the same amount in that time compared to what it has since the March low, we would have gold at around $2150 and silver just above $34. I believe both metals to be hitting these levels in the future just not as soon as November.

        Once the American summer doldrums subside and we continue to navigate our way through global uncertainty due to covid-19, expect underlying strength and demand to underpin PMs. When measuring both gold and silvers price potential using the GSR, perhaps finishing around 80 would be very promising. Thus ball park figures for both metals could be gold – $1950 and silver – $24.40. I think everyone who is a PM bull would be very happy with those prices. Of course with so many variables and volatility around in these unprecedented times, predictions are fraught with danger and almost always incorrect when dealing with exact figures.

        Hence I think the metals wont sustain the moves seen since March going into years end. Thats not to say I dont believe they wont go higher from here in the interim. Its just with such strong gains of late, gold has become a little crowded in my mind and therefore needs to pullback a little. Silver not so crowded but will most likely take golds lead with price direction.

        • On July 14, 2020 at 6:59 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Ozibatla – Good thoughts as per usual. I agree that Silver should keep gaining on Gold bringing down the G.S.R., but it will be subject to small corrections along the way. I’m not sure it will keep climbing at the same pace it has so Gold at $2150 and Silver at $34 is a bit aggressive by year’s end, but I’d be thrilled with Gold anywhere above it’s all time high of $1923, and Silver above it’s 2016 surge high of $21.23 by year’s end.

          While there has been a seasonal trend of Summer Doldrums for the vast majority of years the last 2 decades, 2020 has been a very unusual year, and may be more reminiscent of outlier years like 2016 & 2019 where the PMs were strong through the Summer months.

          As mentioned, I expect the larger gold miners to have a mild correction in the next few weeks (and as Cory mentioned one could argue they already have taken a bit of a breather over the last week). Still many gold miners valuations are extended and their intense moves higher the last 4 months need time to consolidate those gains. As for gold or silver, I don’t expect the correction in the metals to be very extreme or protracted. There are plenty of investors watching from the sidelines that will want to get into this tiny sector on a corrective move, so that will put a floor of support in the PM space, that dip will likely get bought, preventing it from being too scary. I’m still very constructive on the Silver miners as well, because Silver has more room to climb.

          Ever Upward!

          • On July 14, 2020 at 7:31 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Cheers Ex. Ditto on the good thoughts. I too would be very pleased if gold took out its previous all-time high and silver its 2016 high by years end. Those two figures imply a GSR around 90 come the end of the year and I recon thats reasonable to expect, perhaps even 85. As for corrections, yes I agree as well that they wont be too severe as existing investors, new investors and traders will buy the dips. Barring unforseen circumstances, corrections in the order of 5-10% tops is likely. With silver having more upside potential in the near future that will further decrease the GSR without gold having to do too much. This makes sense as gold is getting a touch “toppy” at the moment plus as it gets near its all-time high price it will experience profit taking and subsequent pullbacks.

          • On July 14, 2020 at 8:59 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That makes sense to me Ozibatla. We’ll see how things develop.

        • On July 15, 2020 at 7:13 am,
          OOTB Jerry says:

          Ditto OZ……….”Thus ball park figures for both metals could be gold – $1950 and silver – $24.40. I think everyone who is a PM bull would be very happy with those prices”

          • On July 15, 2020 at 7:17 am,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I will be happy…..with gold breaking out at $1923……game over…..jmo

    • On July 14, 2020 at 4:19 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      BE nice……….no politics in the metals section…..

      • On July 14, 2020 at 4:46 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        LOL!

  4. On July 14, 2020 at 10:28 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (CGP) Cornerstone Board Formally Rejects Hostile Bid by (SOLG) SolGold for the Second Time

    by @nasdaq on 14 Jul 2020

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/cornerstone-board-formally-rejects-hostile-bid-by-solgold

    • On July 14, 2020 at 10:45 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’ve been both a shareholder of Cornerstone and Solgold at 2 different points in the last year, and was most recently in Solgold but sold it for a profit 2 months back to put more focus on the Precious Metals. However, this news is pretty significant as it was assumed by many that Solgold would eventually takeover Cornerstone, but they are not having it. There have been all kinds of egos involved from the 2 management teams and some of their larger fund strategic investors, so it’s become a real sh*t-show during the last year or two, between the 2 organizations.

      I may look for overreactions by the marketplace that cause pricing fluctuations, as both of these companies have interesting Copper/Gold assets in Ecuador, and if they can’t resolve this, there are going to be some polarized reactions by investors.

      Mining – what a business!

  5. On July 14, 2020 at 11:16 pm,
    Matthew says:

    A lot of people were calling for a top of some significance so yesterday’s shakeout surely did some good for the health of the move higher.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p04919064884&a=640682620

  6. On July 14, 2020 at 11:27 pm,
    Matthew says:
  7. On July 14, 2020 at 11:34 pm,
    Matthew says:

    Those in need of more shares better make good use of any pullbacks they get.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p34501623920&a=726315882

  8. On July 15, 2020 at 7:54 am,
    CFS says:

    Erdene Resource drills 5.5 m of 126 g/t Au at Bayan
    2020-07-15 10:41 ET – News ReleasE
    Mr. Peter Akerley reports
    ERDENE CONFIRMS THREE NEW NEAR-SURFACE, HIGH-GRADE GOLD ZONES AT KHUNDII GOLD PROJECT

  9. On July 15, 2020 at 8:09 am,
    CFS says:

    Clean Air drills 27.9 m of 3.39 g/t Pt, 4.67 g/t Pd
    2020-07-15 09:25 ET – News Release
    Mr. Abraham Drost reports
    CLEAN AIR METALS ANNOUNCES NEW DRILL RESULTS FROM THE ESCAPE LAKE INTRUSION AT THUNDER BAY NORTH, INCLUDING 27.9M OF 3.39PPM (G/T) PLATINUM AND 4.67PPM (G/T) PALLADIUM, 1.67% COPPER, 0.90% NICKEL
    Clean Air Metals Inc. has released new assay results from the drilling campaign currently under way at the company’s 100-per-cent-owned Thunder Bay North project.

  10. On July 15, 2020 at 8:15 am,
    CFS says:

    K92 Mining drills 10.4 m of 24.81 g/t Au at Kainantu
    2020-07-15 07:44 ET – News Release
    Mr. John Lewins reports
    K92 MINING ANNOUNCES LATEST HIGH-GRADE DRILL RESULTS AT KORA
    K92 Mining Inc. has provided results from the continuing diamond drilling of the Kora deposit at the Kainantu gold mine in Papua New Guinea. The results for the latest 37 diamond drill holes completed from surface and underground into the Kora deposit are summarized in the “Kainantu gold mine — significant intercepts from diamond drilling” table. The results continue to demonstrate the high-grade and continuity of Kora with intersections largely focused on increasing drill density toward the south in addition to extending mineralization to the south at depth. All drill holes intersected mineralization.
    Drill hole KMDD0181 records multiple intersections including 10.40 metres at 24.81 grams per tonne gold, 11 g/t silver and 0.28 per cent copper (25.36 g/t gold equivalent (AuEq), 4.58 m true width) at the K2 vein and 2.84 m at 5.36 g/t Au, 628 g/t Ag and 8.39 per cent Cu (25.10 g/t AuEq, 1.68 m true width) at the K3 vein

  11. On July 15, 2020 at 8:32 am,
    CFS says:

    Ridgestone Drilling Intercepts 2.13 g/t Gold and 1.79% Copper over 16.25 metres at Rebeico Project, Sonora, Mexico
    2020-07-15 08:30 ET – News Release
    Vancouver, British Columbia–(Newsfile Corp. – July 15, 2020) – Ridgestone Mining Inc. (TSXV: RMI) (OTCQB: RIGMF)

  12. On July 15, 2020 at 9:25 am,
    Tom says:

    long AUY