Dana Lyons Commentary – Fri 24 Jul, 2020

Market breadth is weakening but it now the time to go short?

Dana Lyons kicks off today by focusing on the overall breadth of the markets. We have discussed at length the weak breadth for the markets but Dana points out that it’s actually getting worse. However this is still not the time to be rushing to cash as a couple leading sectors continue to show strength.

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Comments:
  1. On July 24, 2020 at 10:57 am,
    Excelsior says:

    Bull Flags On The Miners: Investor Tactics

    July 24, 2020 – Morris Hubbartt – Super Force #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #Video

    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/sfs/hubbartt072420.html

    • On July 24, 2020 at 11:03 am,
      Excelsior says:

      More Upside Or Prepare For Pullback In Gold & Silver?

      July 23, 2020 – Chris Vermuelen – The Technical Traders #VIDEO

      https://www.thetechnicaltraders.com/more-upside-or-prepare-for-pullback-in-gold-silver/

      _______________________________________________

      Chris V. see the Fib extension in Silver to head up to $24.36, and is also only expecting a mild 8-16% correction at that level, whichc would be a good spot to add.

      • On July 24, 2020 at 11:05 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Gold, Silver Very Overbought

        Adam Hamilton – Jul 24, 2020

        “Both gold and silver surged dramatically higher this past week, propelled by torrents of investment capital deluging in. The resulting major new highs are really exciting, unleashing widespread fear-of-missing-out buying. But the precious metals’ blistering jumps have left them very overbought. They have come so far so fast they are at and above technical extremes that have proven unsustainable. So caution is in order here.”

        http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hamilton/hamilton072420.html

      • On July 24, 2020 at 11:08 am,
        Excelsior says:

        ‘The balloon might pop’: Fed’s corporate intervention spurs anxiety
        By Victoria Guida and Kellie Mejdrich – The Politico Finance

        ‘It’s going to collapse under its own weight’: The Fed’s far-reaching rescue triggers waves of worry.

        “The Federal Reserve, which long came under withering attack from President Donald Trump for not doing enough to boost the economy, is now drawing fire for a massive rescue of U.S. corporations that’s driving up Trump’s favorite barometer of success: the stock market.”

        “The Fed’s months-long effort to support hundreds of companies hammered by the coronavirus crisis is also propping up weak firms and subsidizing large ones like Apple and Amazon that don’t need help. As a result, critics say, it’s inflating stock prices, widening wealth inequality, delaying a wave of inevitable defaults, and directing investment into poorly run corporations at the expense of the long-term vitality of the economy.”

        https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/16/fed-corporate-intervention-worry-365047

        • On July 24, 2020 at 6:00 pm,
          blazesb says:

          I agree with these quotes Ex. They speak well to the long term effects of modern ‘adjustments’ by the Fed to what used to be the business cycle. The weak survive. The economy ‘muddles through’ and it all just makes the next recession worse.

          Corporations have become the ultimate welfare queens.

          Corporations have become the ultimate welfare recipients.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:19 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed blazesb. Very well stated, (especially the last 2 lines).

          • On July 24, 2020 at 7:07 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Gotta love this one: “The Federal Reserve, which long came under withering attack from President Donald Trump for not doing enough to boost the economy…”

            It’s amazing and ridiculous that Trump’s supporters don’t have a problem with their guy wanting the Fed to be the worst version of itself that it can be. He’s the dead opposite of Constitutionalists like Ron Paul and has no problem with the immorality and destructiveness of the Marxist institution.

          • On July 25, 2020 at 2:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed about Trump being just as bad as Marxist collectivists and neocons in wanting the Fed to “be the worst version of itself that it can be” and print to infinity and beyond and interfere with the free markets. The article was critical of exactly this tendency of corrupt central bankers to be “propping up weak firms and subsidizing large ones like Apple and Amazon that don’t need help. As a result, critics say, it’s inflating stock prices, widening wealth inequality, delaying a wave of inevitable defaults, and directing investment into poorly run corporations at the expense of the long-term vitality of the economy.”

  2. On July 24, 2020 at 10:59 am,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Goodness……we were talking about going short…..yesterday…..lol

    • On July 24, 2020 at 11:04 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed OOTB. Considering going short was so Thursday….

      Don’t they know it’s a feel good Friday?

      • On July 24, 2020 at 11:14 am,
        OOTB Jerry says:

        lol…….. way ahead of the curve.. 🙂

        • On July 24, 2020 at 11:44 am,
          Excelsior says:
          • On July 24, 2020 at 3:56 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            Laffer………needs to think in terms of NO TAX, IS A GOOD TAX……lol

          • On July 25, 2020 at 2:19 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed OOTB. I”m no fan of taxes or theft. However, at least Laffer realized that by cutting taxes it allowed businesses to prosper, higher more workers, and grow, thus generating more tax revenues for the nation. If you hate taxes just think what things will look like if Biden and the far left socialist squad and Bernie bros get in power in November. These may end up being “the good ole’ days”…. in comparison.

          • On July 25, 2020 at 2:44 am,
            Excelsior says:

            higher = hire.

  3. On July 24, 2020 at 11:05 am,
    Matthew says:

    Stocks are in worse shape than many indicators suggest but that’s true at every top.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=8&mn=9&dy=0&id=p56719505978&a=413006120

  4. On July 24, 2020 at 11:09 am,
    Excelsior says:

    @Goldfinger – “Officially the highest weekly close for #gold in history. Previous high was from September 2011 at $1886.40. Futures open outcry session is complete for the week.”

    http://cdn.ceo.ca/1fhm8hc-Gold_Weekly_7.24.2020.png

  5. On July 24, 2020 at 11:13 am,
    Matthew says:
  6. On July 24, 2020 at 11:42 am,
    SilverDollar says:

    Watching MSFT, APPL and AMAZ. As a group they’re off over 12% from their totals on the 14th of July. The first signs of a downdraft in general Equities has to begin here I believe. Have purchased three tranches of SPXU with average price of $10.22. Holding my breath…………but so far, so good.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 12:29 pm,
      SilverDollar says:

      Very good listen today on Palisade. Don’t think it’s been mentioned today. Lawrence Lepard who covers a couple points with the currency that I’ve not heard others advocating. https://palisaderadio.com/

      • On July 24, 2020 at 12:48 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks SilverDollar – I read some of Lawrence’s passages on Twitter and need to check out the talk on Palisade Radio.

  7. On July 24, 2020 at 12:18 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Silver still surging, now back above $23 again and stocks like (IPT) Impact Silver and (AXU) Alexco have been pulling back the last few days as buyers are exhausted and the profit takers have started selling. Strange currents in these waters….

    I added to both of those today, but did trim back (DSV) Discovery Metals a bit on the Sprott Pop from the weekly podcast where he mentioned twice it was his favorite Silver stock. (and rightly so). I trimmed a few others today (and finally sold the remaining piece of my Superior Gold for more than a double). I added to a few Gold explorers. Otherwise just hanging on to the ride higher in Silver and Gold. It looks like both are going to have fantastic weekly closes.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 12:19 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      #Sprott Money News Weekly Wrap-up

      7.24.20 w/ Craig Hemke & Eric Sprott #AudioInterview

      > Their comments on the $SILVER market have me sitting on the edge of my seat!

      They discuss the following companies $DSV $JAG $SPA $FVL $PGM $MAG $TUO $BRC $KORE $AMX $WM

      https://soundcloud.com/sprottmoney/sprott-money-news-weekly-wrap-up-72420

      • On July 24, 2020 at 12:36 pm,
        Sound Money Advocate says:

        yeh this presentation has become a staple (in other words, a “reglur stop”)

        • On July 24, 2020 at 12:50 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Agreed. I’ve been waiting for them come out week, mostly to hear the stock part at the end, or where Eric is fishing on a trip. Haha!

          This one was particularly good though and I really loved the section on the Silver markets. Craig was rather chipper as well.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 12:56 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            yeh that’s part of it – they are cool and fun to listen to

            have not listened to the latest yet – am currently hung up on uranium stox and the possibility that now I have to conduct my attempted extensive analysis (general state of business, “devolving” to tedious analysis of financial statements, all in relation to projection of uranium price and market) of a few of them toward possible (that word again – why not it is descriptive) further accumulation

          • On July 24, 2020 at 1:25 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc and I were talking a few days back about the move in the some of the Uranium stocks earlier in the week. They are starting to stir again.

            I hold Ur-Energy, Energy Fuels, Denison, Uranium Energy Corp, Nexgen, and Anfield, and am considering adding Iso Energy, Peninsula Energy, Azarga, UEX Corp, ALX Uranium, Skyharbour, and Purepoint.

            Which companies are you liking based on your analysis of financial statements?

          • On July 24, 2020 at 1:53 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            I can’t post! Am I banned or something? Can’t imagine why . . .

          • On July 24, 2020 at 1:56 pm,
            Cory댊 says:

            Hey SMA, what happens when you try to post? I don’t see any comments that have been filtered.

            Hopefully it was just a short term issue.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:00 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            I am struggling with it now Cory – kicking, screaming, all that.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:06 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            Now the red says I am “posting too fast”. Didn’t know that was possible. I am more accustomed to being criticized for being too slow . . .

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:29 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            Cory, my comment will not post – I have tried about 7X, responding to different messages, trying to tack it on to the very end of this thread, nothing works.

            It contains no vulgarity, only, say, one four-letter reference – UUUU, which is Energy Fuels. It is, I would have to say – very much on-point.

            Not clear what is problem. It will accept other stuff, just not this particular.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:32 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            You know, I am really tryin to respond to the request of Ex, cuz he posts so much good stuff I want to give back much as I can. But it will not let me post on this subject! Maybe if I Restart my internet connection (get assigned a different IP address) it will work? Maybe that what I need to do . . . but now I need to get to gym before closing. Ex – if you still there – I plan to get back to you one way or other.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:35 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            OK thanks Smart Money Advocate. All 3 of your prior posts look like they came through just fine, so you could have listed some of the U stocks you like in those posts, but regardless, enjoy the gym. I didn’t even think the gyms were allowed to open yet?

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Disregard, I see your post landed down below. Thanks.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 3:29 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Someone at ceo.ca unraveled the mystery on all the selling pressure in (AXU) Alexco in the middle of this week, which triggered even more selling.

      It was a few company insiders that sold a large chunk and hit a bunch of sell stops on the way down. Geesh!

      Filed 2020-07-24 15:41 Tx date 2020-07-22 $AXU Alexco Resource Corp.

      McOnie, Alan William – Senior Officer of Issuer Direct Ownership Common Shares

      > Disposition in the public market $-1,620,000 -400,000 vol $4.05 each
      _______________________________________

      Filed 2020-07-24 15:34 Tx date 2020-07-22 $AXU Alexco Resource Corp.

      Clark, Michael – Senior Officer of Issuer Direct Ownership Common Shares

      disposition in the public market $-110,750 -25,000 vol $4.43 each
      _______________________________________________________________________

      Filed 2020-07-24 15:30 Tx date 2020-07-22 $AXU Alexco Resource Corp.

      Thrall, Bradley Allen – Senior Officer of Issuer Direct Ownership – Common Shares

      Disposition in the public market $-303,750 -75,000 vol $4.05 each
      _____________________________________________________________________

      Filed 2020-07-24 15:24 Tx date 2020-07-20 $AXU Alexco Resource Corp.

      Krepiakevich, Terry – Senior Officer of Issuer Direct Ownership – Common Shares

      Disposition in the public market $-204,000 -50,000 vol $4.08 each

      • On July 24, 2020 at 3:37 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        I knew something was really odd about that much selling pressure hitting in AXU as Silver kept climbing to new highs. It didn’t make sense it was just a technical pullback, when this was such a historic rise in Silver and in a premier name like Alexco.

        It turns out the insiders were selling tons of shares into that strength, and this likely triggered other sell stops in concert with other profit takers selling at the same time.

        Moving on….

        • On July 24, 2020 at 3:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          For clarity, I’m moving on from the mystery, not the company. I still have a very large position for me in Alexco (AXU), and I’m still very encouraged about their upcoming drilling season, and most importantly their upcoming decision on when they are going to go into production early next year.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 3:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            They just added roughly $3.09 of profit margin per Silver ounce produced (and on all their ounces of reserves in the ground) based on the move in prices this week.
            Silver closed last week at $19.76 and this week at $22.85

            > Alexco’s projected AISC is $12.06 (pg 8) of their Corporate Presentation:

            That gives them a current margin of $10.79 per ounce. Nice!

            https://www.alexcoresource.com/site/assets/files/4365/2020-07-axu-cp.pdf

    • On July 24, 2020 at 6:03 pm,
      blazesb says:

      I’ve enjoyed your descriptions this week of your trading process. I just buy and hold to keep myself from dumb decisions.

      • On July 25, 2020 at 6:07 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Thanks blazesb. There are many strategies and investing processes that work and are successful, and we each just need to find a way that works for us. Cheers!

  8. On July 24, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
    Sound Money Advocate says:

    Yamana Gold (AUY on your Quotron) up 7.5% today “as we speak” – not bad for (formerly?) beleaguered mid-major (are Butler and Xavier still mid-majors, for you college basketball fans – I know yer out thar?) producer – major perhaps by now?

    Will check for any news – maybe they announced revenue/profit Q2?

    • On July 24, 2020 at 12:40 pm,
      Hayneman says:

      Hi Al,
      Haven’t seen Richard Postma in a while.
      Is he ok?

      • On July 24, 2020 at 1:00 pm,
        Cory댊 says:

        Don’t worry Doc is joining me on this weekend’s show!

        • On July 24, 2020 at 1:30 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          NIce. Doc has been commenting on the blogs all week long, so I know he’s been paying attention to the PM markets this week.

      • On July 24, 2020 at 1:20 pm,
        bonzo says:

        Doc has been placed in double secret quarantine by the power drunk governor of Michigan.
        He is not even allowed to go outside and mow his lawn or ride his jet ski.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          Hi, bonzo; how have you been? Our governor is a peach all right. Now it’s mandatory masks and up to this point I haven’t been wearing one. However, with the mandatory, I now wear one under my nose. I was in Cabella’s yesterday and there were 4 of the younger variety not wearing masks and the employees said nothing.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 4:22 pm,
      Wolfster says:

      Yamana increased their dividend again is what I heard on radio on way in to work

  9. On July 24, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
    Matthew says:

    I sold some IPT between 1.20 and 1.24 on Tuesday and at an average of 1.205 on Wednesday and even today at 1.11 but have already bought most of it back. My average buy price today was 1.02. It’s fine with me if it goes lower.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 1:33 pm,
      Sound Money Advocate says:

      That seems some fine-grained risk-laden (even more so than this manipulated “market” segment already) speculation to me, Matt.

      I know you said “sold some” rather than “sold all”, but let’s say you sold all at 1.2 – what if, next day or 2, it leaped to 1.5 or so? After which you might say – well that’s too fast it has to pull back then I will get back in – then it kept migrating upward – 1.7, 1.9, 2.2, etc., after which you might rationalize – well, way too rich now I will wait for pull-back – pull-back which never comes, and IPT gets up around $3 – so if you would have just relaxed and kept your original position, you would be up 3-5X (depending upon your basis)?

      Not trying to argue with you (I know we have some bad history, but I prefer to get over it and leave it behind).

      • On July 24, 2020 at 1:42 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        I think that the odds of most of these silver stocks reversing along with silver in the near future are pretty good. We could see about $20.00 on a silver pullback and about 18.5 on an slv pullback. I would agree with those who are now getting a little uncomfortable with the level we’re at and how rapidly we got here.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I likewise sold some IPT on Monday and Tuesday, but felt a bit underexposed, so I bought some Impact back today, since it was pulling back, to fortify the core position a bit more.

          Doc, I hear ya on the silver and silver stock reversal in the near future, but I liked Chris Vermeulen’s target of $24.36 (from that segment posted higher up in this blog), and Jordan Roy-Bryne mentioned a roughly $24 level of resistance. I hoping to squeak out a few more gains before the reversal, but trimmed back some other Gold & Silver stocks this week in case there is a pullback in Silver. (We discussed Endeavour Silver a day or so back).

      • On July 24, 2020 at 1:45 pm,
        Matthew says:

        And I thought your point was going to be that I am buying back too soon (which could be the case)!

        I agree with you which is why I posted the following to someones else yesterday:
        On July 23, 2020 at 7:14 pm,
        Matthew says:
        In my opinion, buy-and-hold investors can/should relax and even still buy dips. MUCH larger gains are coming this year and a significant top is not coming soon.

      • On July 24, 2020 at 1:48 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I “knew” I could get away with selling an explosive gap move to 1.25 and would’ve sold more if I were on my toes. One thing I wasn’t going to do was chase the selling lower like so many spooked top-callers. The little I sold today at 1.11 was only because had repurchased shares the day before at 1.055 and again I “knew” that 1.11 wouldn’t hold today.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 2:09 pm,
          RICHARD/DOC says:

          I agree; it’s also a little worrisome that we’re leaving the 200 week SMAs in the dust here for many stocks. A period of resistance and pullback with consolidation would be exactly what the doctor ordered. One counter argument would be the fact that the dollar looks ready to really puke.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:32 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc – Good point on the moves far above the 200 week SMAs, and that a pullback consolidation would be exactly what the doctor ordered.

            We were discussing yesterday that the Dollar is at the lower part of it’s trading range down near 94, and that if it did break lower into the low 90’s or even high 80’s, that it would be tailwind for the PMs; and that may keep things overbought a little longer.

            Next week is going to be exciting either way.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 2:12 pm,
          Sound Money Advocate says:

          you gotta hook me up with that “knower” you are usein’

          • On July 24, 2020 at 3:09 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It’s me. No one really knows the future which is why the quotation marks but I’ve done ok.

            It turns out I was right to turn bullish right at the lows in mid March while it seemed most people way overestimated the chart damage and thought this sector would have months of trouble ahead. I did not see that at all so I bought what I could without waiting for a bounce.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GDM&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37799434818&a=727381853

  10. On July 24, 2020 at 1:19 pm,
    Rene says:

    Many thanks to all here for opening my eyes, Ex, OOTB, Matthew, Doc , Cory, the rounds are on me…cheers

    • On July 24, 2020 at 2:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Rene. Yeah, we have a good group of commentators here at the KER, sharing all kinds of interesting insights, news, charts, editorials, analysis, and merry making. 🙂

      May your investing be prosperous!

  11. On July 24, 2020 at 2:13 pm,
    b says:

    Selling ipt at the open wasnt that much of a challenge, the last couple days its opened high and moved lower thru out the day.

    Days like that make me wonder about the be right and sit tight thinking.

    The same thing was happening at 66 cents for a couple of days and there was a good drop at 74 cents.

    Exactly what a trader does peerin about fer ifn ya askin moi.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 2:16 pm,
      Sound Money Advocate says:

      heh heh right on man

      ah bins holdin dear IPT fir yrz – thru thik an thin, awaitin the big score!

      • On July 24, 2020 at 2:22 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Sound Money Advocate – I know you mentioned having posting issues up above, but you never told me which Uranium companies you were liking after your analysis. I was curious to see if there were any you currently hold or are thinking of adding.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 2:39 pm,
          Sound Money Advocate says:

          It won’t even post here! What do I do, start removin words that may be causing rejection for some stupid robotic reason, till I find Holy Grail? Okay, here goes – this may be necessarily stripped down version – like VW race-car with body replaced by roll cage:

          (First I will replace symbols with company names – don’t know why that would matter, people reference by symbol all the time here.)

          Because I likes ya, I will try again. Here goes –

          Have been holding Cameco, Energy Fuels, UEC, URG, Denison and U Participate. Need to update myself on business/fin conditions of the operating cos. (sans “Participation” that is – that one is easy)

          Then maybe add to one or more of them, if favorable. Then consider others, such as “Next Generation”.

          Prefer “reasonable” jurisdiction, ample volume of US exchange, production or nearly so, solvent and able to continue to weather storm if need be.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Ah thanks Sound Money Advocate. Eureka we have Uranium stocks! (lol)

            >> 1 tip on the KER is that if you try to put more than 1 link into a post it won’t work. the tickers should not matter at all though. Also I saw you mention above the red link of “Slow Down, you are posting too fast.” That usually happens if you hit return 2 or more times on the same post, and then none of them will post. Hope that helps!

            ____________________________________

            Now onto Uranium stocks:

            Looks like we have a lot of similar names (Energy Fuels, Uranium Energy Corp, Ur-Energy, and Denison). Bummer – I was hoping for a few new ideas. 🙂

            I know Cameco is the biggest but I’ve never owned it and feel they are sitting on a number of problems with restarting McArthur River and Cigar Lake, but am actually hoping that they buy out NexGen (NXE) to save their hind ends.

            As for Uranium Participation, it’s more a proxy to the actual Uranium price, and just a holding company that Denison manages. (right?) There is so much more leverage in the Uranium miners that I was confused why someone would want to just own the Uranium held by another company. I have no doubt Uranium will make it up to $40-$60+ eventually, so I guess (U.TO) could go up 2-3 times, but the miners will go up 5-15 times on that.

            Regardless, thanks for sharing and if you see any other ideas that catch your eye please don’t keep them a secret. I threw out a few more ideas up above. Cheers!

          • On July 24, 2020 at 5:47 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            U.S. seeks to streamline Uranium extraction rules, increase mining

            Jul. 24, 2020 – : Carl Surran, SA News Editor

            “The Trump administration moves to streamline water rules on uranium mining, with the heads of the Environmental Protection Agency and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission signing an initial agreement they say will improve coordination in the regulation of in-situ mining of uranium.”

            “The mining technique is a “proven safe and cost-effective way to provide fuel for America’s nuclear power plants, which supports thousands of jobs and is a large source of emissions-free energy,” says EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler.”

            https://seekingalpha.com/news/3594921-u-s-seeks-to-streamline-uranium-extraction-rules-increase-mining?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=uuuu-dnn-u-s-seeks-to-streamline-uranium-extraction-rules-increase-mining&utm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:37 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            Thanks for getting back Ex. I don’t know what was the problem with posting there – hopefully it will not recur. I will keep your tips in mind.

            Sorry I do/did not have new ideas for ya. What I told ya is where I am with the analysis truly. But as I said, I plan to scope out the field of possibility, and will let ya know if I think I happen upon something prospective.

            U Participate – I have been accumulating this as the lowest-risk way to “participate” in a mania (I hope) in uranium. No it won’t perform like some small companies, nor even Cameco, but if it goes 2x or 3x – you know, I can use the money . . .

            Uranium, as you are likely aware, is an opaque, politicized (even more so than PMs) market, hard to call/time. And I am not sure these daze how I am going to put a valuation on uranium miners or developers (if any even exist). Not as simple as a miner of PMs or base metals, which I am fairly comfortable with. So that is the challenge ahead.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 7:54 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good thoughts on Uranium Sound Money Advocate. I concur about being opaque, politicized, and hard to time/call.

            Yes, there are producers like Cameco, Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, and Peninsula Energy, but most have shuttered or throttled back production until prices move into the mid-$40s on longer duration off-take contracts with utility companies.

            As for the Developers the most advanced ones are UEC with permits and processing center in place, and Denison & Azarga & Andield all looking to be Insitu producers like Energy Fuels & UR-Energy.

            NexGen is the largest highest grade deposit in the Athabasca Basin, and they are building decline shafts and moving towards development, but ultimately need a larger partner for the caped and explorational experience. Many see Cameco as the natural suitor because the could buy Nexgen and develope (with no underground water issues) for about the same as the huge expense of freezing the deep underground water inflows at McArthur River or Cigar Lake. However, if Cameco doesn’t budge, then BHP or Rio Tinto or a Chinese consortium could also be suitors.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 7:57 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Correction: that should have said NexGen need a larger partner for the Capex and Production/Operational experience.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 2:40 pm,
          Sound Money Advocate says:

          Finally it took one. Goin to gym – talk wit ya later.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes, I saw it. Thanks Sound Money Advocate. I didn’t even think they had opened up the gym yet, but I haven’t had a gym membership in 30+ years.

            I have some workout equipment in the garage so it gives me the options of saying it was too hot or too cold to go workout. Haha!

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:24 pm,
            Sound Money Advocate says:

            Where I am been open for a month. I didn’t have to wear the stupid mask until today when they harassed me about it. They said some idiot (my words) called the police because “people weren’t wearing masks”, and the gym needs to protect themselves because the “authorities” could close them down. Now (if I so choose) I have to navigate that . . .

            Yeah Ex that is good plan to keep your options open about that garage-based work-out equipment. I just have this problem that I do not want to capitulate to aged-ness and want to remain “young and firm” if at all possible. I just grew up that way – with a certain vision for an image . . . I don’t care what other people look like though – I would tell someone – if you don’t like the way I look, then don’t look at me!

            I find a great way to stay conditioned is boxing – so I go to the Bob Weaver Boxing Gym, where the motto is: “be sure to land, but don’t be grounded”

          • On July 24, 2020 at 8:01 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That’s crazy someone wanted to call the cops about not wearing a mask at the gym, which could shut their business down. Wild times!

            You’ve encouraged me to hit the weights tomorrow.

            Have a good evening.

    • On July 24, 2020 at 2:19 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      b you bring up a good point about the high open and then selling off during the day. That same pattern was happening in dozens of stocks this week, and a few times I bought at the end of the day, or the following morning in prre-market trading, and then sold into that spike in about a dozen names. It happened a number times and did make for great swing-trades and day trades. This was the most productive and profitable week I’ve ever had trading the miners. I almost am sad that the weekend is here as things were really on a roll…

      • On July 24, 2020 at 3:06 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Ex, happy for you—-also note that the intermediate cycles on the metals and some of these stocks are starting to push the caution zone as well. When you draw a trendline on them it appears we’re reaching a time where they should start to trade sideways to down for awhile until they compromise that line.

        • On July 24, 2020 at 3:46 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thanks Doc. I do agree that many of these stocks are starting to push the caution zone, and if there is a healthy consolidation where they trade sideways to down for a while that would be normal and healthy.

          I’m watching a number of stocks for a 15-20% pullback to buy back positions I trimmed at higher prices, and have dry powder standing by.

          Ever Upward!

    • On July 24, 2020 at 3:44 pm,
      Matthew says:

      B, the problem is one of volume, the lack of it. IPT traded 320,000 shares in the first 5 minutes on Tuesday between 1.19 and 1.25 which is fewer shares than I have and everyone is competing for their share to sell to. Only 45,500 traded in the next 5 minutes and the range was 1.19 to 1.22. For the third 5 minutes, volume was almost 55,000 with a range of 1.16 to 1.21. That’s just 420,000 shares in 15 minutes and a lot of juniors are much worse. At least that 420,000 averaged a strong 1.228/share.

      • On July 24, 2020 at 10:30 pm,
        pyrite says:

        Matthew,
        I don’t have a position in IPT and AXU (NYSE). Any price point you would recommend to initiate a new position in the two names? Thank you.

        • On July 26, 2020 at 11:35 am,
          Matthew says:

          Pyrite, the levels I mentioned last Tuesday are still good. I called IPT a buy at 1.07 and below, a strong buy at .99 and below, and a very strong “back-up the truck” buy at .86 and below. You’ll have to use your own judgement but I would be more aggressive if you are “light” the whole sector and less aggressive if you have plenty of other similar positions. Personally, I’ve been very aggressive lately (selling spikes only modestly and buying back without hesitation on modest pullbacks) and have already repurchased most of the IPT shares I sold on Tuesday and Wednesday and have even added further to others at much higher prices than my average. I will not be dumping any of my shares into weakness should the sector surprise me to the downside. I will buy more. Know thyself, it’s important.

          AXU has also pulled way back from its high last week and is a buy right here and a strong buy if it fills last week’s big gap. If I were buying, I’d buy just before the gap gets completely filled while it’s falling. That’s IF it is going to fall. It is already in the buy zone as far as I’m concerned.

          Some probably think last week’s huge record volume is a sign of distribution and therefore bearish but I think it is massive breakout volume and therefore bullish. Notice on the following chart that the last two record volume spikes were bearish and it is easy to see why. The first, last August, happened just as the RSI peaked at 85 after a big move higher while the second, in the first week of March, happened after a terrible down week and plunge through the Ichimoku Cloud and 50 week MA. So the August volume spike was smart money distribution while the March volume spike was due to a bearish breakout. While the dumb money bought the dip, the smart money exited. Last week, the opposite happened. Dumb money is calling a significant high and selling while smart money is happy to take their shares. Either that or I’m the dumb money this time. I does happen! We will know I’m the dumb money if we now get a multi-week decline OR a shorter one that is very deep (like back to the 50 week MA at 1.90-ish).

          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p85741068675&a=789585263

          • On July 28, 2020 at 10:58 am,
            Matthew says:

            Thanks for the reply, Matthew.

  12. On July 24, 2020 at 3:05 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Well it was quite the week in Silver, with a high of $23.67 and close for the week at $22.85

    Not too shabby!

    http://schrts.co/AUJePisW

    • On July 24, 2020 at 5:54 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Tight Silver Market Is Only Going To Get Worse – First Majestic Silver CEO

      Kitco News – July 23, 2020 #VIDEO

      “Demand from green technology manufacturers, precious metal investors, as well as hampered production due to COVID-19 mine suspensions are all aiding silver.”

      “I know the tightness of the market. It’s only gonna get worse as we go green,” said Keith Neumeyer, founder and CEO of First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG, TSX:FR), who spoke to Kitco on Wednesday.

      https://youtu.be/RT8x1cRTl20

      • On July 24, 2020 at 5:56 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (7/23/2020)

        Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum

        https://youtu.be/cAqsgAV7lXE

        • On July 24, 2020 at 5:59 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Gold stages the highest weekly closing price on record at $1900.30 an ounce

          Jul 24, 2020 – Gary Wagner #TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #VIDEO

          “History was made today when gold pricing closed near the highest daily level since August 22, 2011. In fact, as of 5:50 PM EDT gold futures basis the most active August contract is currently settling at approximately $1900.30. On a weekly chart gold closed at a new record price for the highest weekly close.”

          https://youtu.be/xPPT_E7OBMI

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:05 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            ^^ HISTORY!!!!!!

            It’s happening!

            https://i.imgur.com/7drHiqr.gif

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:11 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Glenfidish if you see this, I’d highly recommend the TA video above with Gary Wagner. He still believes Gold is heading over $2000, even if we get a $150 pullback from here or in another scenario if Gold breaks even higher before correcting.

            Cheers!

          • On July 24, 2020 at 6:36 pm,
            RICHARD/DOC says:

            Ex, I often don’t agree with Gary however this time I do. We could stall here for a week and then head higher but $2000 is a non event as far as I’m concerned in this bull market. For years I was hammering folks for being too bullish on moves up but now I will be hammering them for not adding on pullbacks since ultimately in this bull $2000 will be child’s play.

          • On July 24, 2020 at 7:02 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Doc – Thanks for that feedback. Yes, I felt it was a particularly good segment of TA from Gary using Fib extensions and retracement levels. He had 2 different targets north of $2100 and $2200 that tell me there is still some good progress to be made in the Gold bull.

  13. On July 24, 2020 at 3:26 pm,
    bonzo says:

    Hi Doc, I am fine and have not had a cold since 2010. I am glad you are not in favor of masks, which are useless against viruses. I hope you heard the vaccine debate yesterday between Dershowitz and RFK, jr. You can still hear it at childrenshealthdefense.org
    It should be shown to every college student. Is this the year that Indiana returns to the Rose Bowl?

  14. On July 24, 2020 at 5:42 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Precipitate Gold (PRG) (PREIF) Starts Exploring with Major Gold Producer Barrick (GOLD)

    goldstocktrades – July 24, 2020

    https://youtu.be/y19EdLtsW4Q

    • On July 24, 2020 at 6:05 pm,
      Sound Money Advocate says:

      they had a good day today, didn’t they?

      A few months ago after researching them some I decided they were still too exploratory for me, besides they had already appreciated substantially.

      I’m not a geo, so even when I see “good drill results” I know that it is still a long way between that and a mine producing metal that can be sold to a refiner in bulk, and I have seen a lot of these “burning matches” come and go. Good hustle if you have the tools to somehow slant odds in your favor I suppose.

      • On July 24, 2020 at 6:17 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Yeah, Precipitate Gold is an exploration stock, so their business model is to use their geological expertise to explore and prove up a large resource. They do have “burn matches” raising money and spending money, like all explorers do, but the concept is to prove up much more value in ounces in the ground than the money they spend.

        PRG Precipitate Gold is partnered with Barrick Gold, one of the largest Major Producers on the planet, and if they find something large enough then Barrick will take them over.

        It seems like a pretty great setup, and they are in the right kind of geology for a massive deposit to be discovered, and their initial geological field work indicates the mineral prospectivity is there.
        _______________________________________________________

        Short Updates on Benchmark, TriStar Gold, Precipitate Gold and Lion One

        Bob Moriarty for Streetwise Reports (7/23/20)

        “Investors are going to have to read between the lines for the meaning of the latest press release from Precipitate Gold Corp. (PRG:TSX.V; PREIF:OTCBB) but I will give you a big hint. This is exactly what you want to see if you want to find another Pueblo Viejo gold deposit. With a $25 million market cap, PRG is a giant sleeper. Naturally the truth detector will be the drill rig but the company is coming up with the ground survey results that you want to see in a big deposit. Pueblo Viejo is the largest gold mine in the Americas and the 8th largest in the world. All shares in juniors are lottery tickets but the Precipitate lotto has a giant potential payoff.”

        https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2020/07/23/short-updates-on-benchmark-tristar-gold-precipitate-gold-and-lion-one.html

        • On July 24, 2020 at 8:04 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          The other positive for Precipitate Gold is one of their other 100% owned projects is adjacent to the large developer Goldquest. So they have 2 projects in the shadows of giants, and the third project they own 100% that they are going to drill.