Ed Moya - Senior Market Analyst at OANDA – Tue 15 Sep, 2020

The market rebound pre-Fed statement and China’s ability to hold up commodities

Ed Moya joins me for a look at the US markets and commodities. With all eyes on the Fed statement tomorrow the markets are rebounding from the recent 2 week correction. As for commodities China is holding up a couple key metals on the back of a stronger recovery. Who knows how long that will last if prices keep going up.

Click here to visit the OANDA website and follow along with Ed’s daily note.

The next KE Report webinar is on September 22nd at 1:15pm PDT. I will be featuring Eclipse Gold Mining and Brian Leni will be joining us for his comments on investing in the gold market. This is a great opportunity to learn more about this exploration company focused on the Hercules Gold Project in Nevada and ask whatever questions you have.

Click here to sign up for free. And be sure to send me your questions regarding Eclipse Gold Mining to Fleck@kereport.com.  




Comments:
  1. On September 15, 2020 at 11:31 am,
    Matthew says:

    GDXJ (and gold miners in general) breakout and MACD buy signal (the first since June)…
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p73861970145&a=701701866

    • On September 15, 2020 at 2:52 pm,
      Charles says:

      Nice! Bought a bit more MUX on the dip this morning. Tomorrow should be interesting with the release of the Fed minutes.

      • On September 15, 2020 at 4:20 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I bought more MUX today, too, among other things. To my surprise, I made 75 trades yesterday and 25 today (no day-trades/”round trips”).

        • On September 15, 2020 at 10:21 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Wow. 100 trades in the last 2 days is pretty active. I usually consider 10-15 trades in the day very active, and typically only do about 3-6 trades per day, and every once in a while will do a round trip day trade, but more often I swing trade over 2 days to several months. Often I’m just fading into or out of existing positions in tranches using limit orders.

          Matthew – Were you doing more buying or selling on the whole the last 2 days?

          As for MUX I added to my position this last Monday the 14th, that I initiated again back in August, but have am slightly underwater on it (down just over 6%). I may still add more to it, but am just holding for now, as I’m really stocked up on gold producers (with 14 of them), and actually want to clear out a few of them when the time is right.

          • On September 15, 2020 at 11:48 pm,
            Matthew says:

            It was about 4 times more buying than selling based on dollar value but a lot of it was outside of gold/silver.
            25 or more trades is common for me but 75 is not. Either way, my commissions really add up.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 1:11 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Well it’s encouraging you were doing more buying than selling. Yes, I’d imagine the commissions add up, but if it is generating better returns then it’s a cost of doing business.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 5:22 am,
            Charles says:

            Curious where what sectors you were concentrated on. I know you said you were expanding to industrial metals and perhaps oil?

          • On September 16, 2020 at 7:37 am,
            Matthew says:

            I am as bullish as can be the gold/silver miners and do not agree with those who think we’ve had or are even close to an intermediate top. Instead, I think we are now starting another rise that could last at least many weeks.
            I am getting more interested in oil but have so far focused more on pipeline MLPs than the oil producers.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 7:58 am,
            Charles says:

            Thanks for your thoughts.

  2. On September 15, 2020 at 12:30 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Michael Konnert, CEO of (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla Resources Corp. presents at the Virtual MIF

    Metals Investor Forum – September 10, 2020 #VIDEO

    https://youtu.be/3vIcH2uR77s

  3. On September 15, 2020 at 12:33 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    John Black, CEO of (REG) (RGLSF) Regulus Resources Inc. presents at the Virtual MIF

    Metals Investor Forum – September 10, 2020 #VIDEO

    https://youtu.be/pcO9he7y49A

    • On September 15, 2020 at 12:39 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      I’m a big fan of the Copper/Gold resource and team over at (REG) Regulus, but did trim 1/4 of the position back today after the big run it’s had the last few months.

  4. On September 15, 2020 at 12:35 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Live webcast today starting now with Ross Beaty, Marin Katusa, and Tom Kaplan.

    https://wsw.com/webcast/preciousmetals/panel1/

  5. On September 15, 2020 at 1:46 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Wow – The market really sold down the exploration news for Azimut hard today. Granted the grades were not as high as some hoped, and for others the intercepts were long, but not long enough to excite them at those grades, but they still hit gold in 29 of 35 holes so far, and have been testing aspects of the geological thesis, so it isn’t like there isn’t any gold to be found, because they’ve kept finding it.

    Again, it seems like an over reaction, which we’ve seen lately in a number of stocks like Freegold, Westhaven, Nighthawk, etc… and it has provided opportunities to add to companies that have done solid work, but didn’t live up to the insanely high expectations that fickle resource investors had about future holes. In many cases the companies valuations were getting ahead of themselves, so there is some price discovery going on but just like things to overshoot on the upside, they also overshoot on the downside.

    Personally, I enjoy watching a big “shaking the tree” moment in a widely followed exploration stocks, as it cleanses out the hot money and froth, and creates doubt where there was previously jubilation. In most cases the drilling that disappoints the market fervor further derisks the growing resource, and gives the exploration team more data to work on future drilling programs. Azimut just raised money yesterday, which was slightly dilutive with over 3 million shares, but fairly wise in hindsight.
    (AZM) (AZMTF) Azimut Expands the Elmer Gold Discovery, James Bay Region, Quebec

    by @newswire on 15 Sep 2020

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/azimut-expands-the-elmer-gold-discovery-james-bay

    • On September 15, 2020 at 2:53 pm,
      RICHARD/DOC says:

      These are the kind of stocks I love—-I don’t own Azimut but will wait for the selling to dry up and then take a position—–bought some nighthawk this past week and will add slowly over time. In spite of the sell off in a lot of PM stocks, my portfolio is about where it was before the sell offs due to heavy exposure to a few stocks that have bucked the trend. Ex, our argonaut continues to hang in there and wants badly to break out of it’s monthly trading range and is sitting at the upper BB.

      • On September 15, 2020 at 8:28 pm,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Ex is busy talking to his billionaire buddy Elon Musk about financing mining on the surface of Mars in the hope that it will prove habitable. A contrarian by nature he is taking this to a whole new level. LOL! DT

        • On September 15, 2020 at 10:36 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Mining robots key to colonizing Mars β€” Elon Musk

          Cecilia Jamasmie | October 24, 2016

          “SpaceX chief executive Elon Musk, who last month revealed details of his ambitious plans to get at least a million people to Mars, said mining robots will be a key part of the planned colonization of the red planet.”

          “the tech billionaire β€” who also heads electric-vehicle specialist Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) β€” highlighted the vital role mining equipment is set to play when it comes to help people establish their homes in Mars.”

          https://www.mining.com/mining-robots-key-to-colonizing-mars-elon-musk/

      • On September 15, 2020 at 10:33 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Hey Doc – Yeah, I love a good shaking of the tree in stocks, and positioned in Azimut after the prior market freakout on drill results, averaged down into the sell-down in late August, and did clear out 1/3 of the position earlier in September for a quick gain, but I got caught in this sell-down today in the remaining core position, which stung a bit.

        Overall I’m not worried, and still like the company fundamentally, they are cashed up and have lots more drilling to do, and have found gold (but just not as much as the impatient market wanted). I was tempted to buy back the portion I sold today, but want to see if there is any more follow through selling before averaging down to buy back that 1/3 tranche.

        Yes – Argonaut, it has done very well this year and held onto it’s gains. The market is waking up to how much more profitable Florida Canyon is going to be at these higher gold prices, and with better operators, than when it belonged to Rye Patch or Alio. Also, the momentum is building as they work on getting Magino into production and that is going to be a game changer for Argonaut. If it wants to break out of it’s monthly trading range and ride the upper BB higher, that is not going to hurt my feelings any. πŸ™‚

  6. On September 15, 2020 at 2:44 pm,
    David says:

    I got in a selling mood with the news today. Silver Bull had news of a reverse split. Since they had that legal problem with the road block…Got rid of it but might be something to look at down the road due to their resource. Too many good ones to mess with them now.
    Azimut: I thought was an OK report but after how Freegold tanked so much, I we t to cash to see how far they beat Azimut down. I had picked up Timberline previously when QH made a side comment about it but sold it to buy something that had drill results. Then today they mentioned QH was placed on the board so I got it back. I listened to the Orefinders presentation and that sounds like a must have so I got a few today. Looks like Orefinders has a bunch of options for success and two big runs before today still had it under 20 cents US. Waiting for the Fed parasites to finish their charade party. Anyway may pick up more of Orefinders if it corrects again tomorrow. In the meantime, Azimut is sitting in Ely which is also down quite a bit.

    • On September 15, 2020 at 10:44 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      David – Nice recap of today’s trades. I was sidetracked most of the day and just trimmed back a little bit of Regulus and other buy and sell orders never triggered.

      Yes, Orefinders is starting to perk up a little bit and rightly so. They’ve got know ounces in the ground, several interesting exploration targets in prime real estate in Kirkland, and a strategic stakes in 3 different companies.

      1. Knight – 100% Owned
      2. McGarry – 100% Owned
      3. Mirado – 100% Owned
      4. Mistango (MIS:CSE) – 20% equity
      5. Power Ore (PORE:TSXV) – 9% equity
      6. Pacific Precious (IPO planed Q4) – 26% equity

      http://www.orefinders.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Orefinders_Corporate_Presentation.pdf

      • On September 15, 2020 at 10:45 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        know = known ounces in the ground…

        • On September 16, 2020 at 6:43 am,
          Charles says:

          Ex – Is there a U.S. ticker for New Found Gold? I couldn’t find one in their corporate presentation so I assume not.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 8:31 am,
            David says:

            Charles:
            I have not found one yet or talk of getting one. However there is a lot of big money interest in New Found.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 9:14 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Hi Charles. It appears there is only the primary Canadian ticker (NFG) New Found Gold.

            I’m sure if it gets more active that an OTC will be created.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 9:25 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Another thought Charles, which you are likely already be aware of. Novo Resources has a 15 Million share stake in New Found Gold, so that is another way to get exposure, and I believe you have a nice Novo position in place.

            ________________________________

            Novo Completes Acquisition of Significant Stake in New Found Gold Corp.

            March 2, 2020

            https://www.novoresources.com/news-media/news/display/index.php?content_id=383

            ________________________

          • On September 16, 2020 at 2:15 pm,
            Charles says:

            Thanks Ex. Yes I am aware of Novo’s posiiton in the company. I was just hoping to get a little direct exposure, but might pick up some Orefinders instead.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 3:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            10-4 good buddy.

  7. On September 16, 2020 at 8:35 am,
    David says:

    My Account at the moment:
    On this great Fed report day, it appears an abnormal number of silver stocks are hit at the same time. I always suspect JPM first and never seem to suspect anyone else. Just me.

    • On September 16, 2020 at 9:19 am,
      Excelsior says:

      It seems like a pretty boring day so far to me, with an even distribution of small moves to the upside and dowside in most of the Silver and Gold stocks. My portfolio is up about 1%, but overall is essentially flat. SIL and SILJ are both up 0.3% on the day and are essentially flat.

      • On September 16, 2020 at 10:10 am,
        David says:

        1% up is a good number so far. My silver miners are now actually bouncing around. Just never want to pass up an opportunity to bash JPM and their never ending felony pleas.
        The Excellon reverse split showed up in my account. I sold Eexcellon and got twice as many plus of Discovery. Maybe will regret it, but I hate to enable “reverse splitters”.

        • On September 16, 2020 at 10:35 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Yes, one should never pass on the opportunity to bash JPM. πŸ™‚

          As for Excellon, I’ve been invested with them since the beginning of the bull run in 2016 and have traded them to various position sizes the last 4 1/2 years. I remain very interested in their opportunity to start earning cash from Platosa in Mexico and their fees to toll-mill Hecla’s ore at Evolucion, as well as their ability to move the Kilgore Gold project into development over the next 2 years, and their Silver City exploration program in Saxony Germany that is underway at present.

          The reverse split in Excellon was strictly so they can move to acquire a US dual listing, just like Americas Silver, Maverix, Equinox, and others have done, and so I’m a fan of share rollback when it is for that reason, and not the normal dilution of Jr explorers.

          _______________________

          EXCELLON ANNOUNCES APPLICATION TO LIST ON THE NYSE AMERICAN
          AND SHARE CONSOLIDATION

          http://www.excellonresources.com/_resources/news//2020/20200908.pdf

          • On September 16, 2020 at 10:41 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I should clarify that last comment as it came out wrong. The share consolidation has as net 0 effect overall as the market cap is not adjusted, and is just adjusting the number of shares in relation to it proportionately.

            My point with the typical Jr explorers or developers doing a rollback because their share count is too blown out to attract new capital, and so to raise more capital (which is dilutive) they have to roll them back so they can issue more. That is the normal Jr mining cycle of mining existing shareholders as they continue to raise more and more capital to burn and then need to reverse spit to keep the game going.

            As for more established producers doing it to get a dual-listing on the US big board and access the far larger capital pools in America, like what Americas Silver, Maverix, Equinox, (or in this case – Excellon), is doing makes a great deal of sense to take things to the next level, and I’d like to see more mining companies do the exact same thing and get a dual listing in place.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 11:06 am,
            David says:

            I can understand why someone would want to qualify for a higher exchange, but I would prefer they not do it in a bull market. There is that opportunity of natural price growth without attracting speculating short sellers who define short sales as weakness and drive price down as soon as the exchange is made. But, I will defer to your wisdom on the subject as I have yet to see you give anything but great advice. I think Discovery still has a chance to move equally well with twice the shares, but by the time that happens, I will have forgotten what I did. Many thanks as usual for Excellent advice.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 11:08 am,
            David says:

            “…who define “reverse splits” as weakness …”
            sorry

          • On September 16, 2020 at 11:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Thanks for the kind words David. There may be some short sellers that see the reverse split as weakness and initially sell it as a result, but for the medium to longer range plan , this is one of the few times I’m a fan of a reverse split. Actually, in the bull market is the perfect time to get the transaction done and apply for the dual listing, as that is when the liquidity is there (one of the requirements to list on the NYSE, as well as the minimum share price). Also when the generalist US money looks for options in the miners, many funds and some trading platforms are prohibited from trading the OTC listed stocks, so the companies with the US listing (like NEM, AEM, AG, USAS, EQX, CDE, HL, EXK, FSM, MUX, MMX, ASM, AUG, SMTS, etc…) will get the Lion’s share of the funds. Many of new incoming traders on Robinhood or Stash can only trade primary listed stocks, and Excellon is smart for opening up that potential. They still need to get accepted and do the work to get listed to the exchange, but this was a step towards that direction.

            As for Discovery Metals, it is an excellent choice in the Silver space for an advanced explorer / developer, and it will do fantastic. Really most of the Silver stocks will do very well as this bull continues to unfold over the next 2 years, but different companies will have fluctuating news and value drivers, and have their different moments in the sun. I probably have too many Silver stocks (holding 22 companies with Silver exposure now, which is the most I’ve ever had) but I like them each for different value drivers, and adjust them up or down accordingly. I guess eventually I’m going to have to make some hard decisions on which ones to exit and which ones to keep riding and build more concentrated positions, but the companies that are left alive after the last 7-8 years have legitimate work being done and real value drivers.

            Ever Upward!

          • On September 16, 2020 at 11:37 am,
            Excelsior says:

            My suspicion is that one of the reasons Jaguar Mining just did a reverse split was to attempt to do the same thing and get a dual listing in the US along with Canada. I’d really like to see that happen as well.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 11:40 am,
            David says:

            Thanks EX. As usual there is more to every story and that helps understanding the nuances of listing where timing is important. Next time I will have to include your info in my decision. Thanks for another valuable lesson.
            Yes…Ever Upward. Nothing unclear about that!

          • On September 16, 2020 at 12:13 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Some institutional money won’t buy shares that are under $5 so Jag’s reverse split helps to attract big new money. I also think it is safe to say that most mainstream retail money feels more confident about higher priced shares and wouldn’t touch a penny stock (which, by the way, is any stock that trades under $5, not $1 as is widely believed).
            This is worthwhile:
            https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/11/06/can-mutual-funds-own-stocks-under-5.aspx

          • On September 16, 2020 at 12:21 pm,
            David says:

            Matthew good article and right on point concerning the restrictions on brokers selling stocks less than $5. Between the funds and retail, there would have to be more directed money above $5 and less interest in those in the cheaper range, no matter how good they are either way.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 12:34 pm,
            Matthew says:

            There’s a linked article within the one I just posted in which the Motley Fool asserts that “penny stocks” used to refer to stocks that trade under $1 but I believe they are wrong about that. Sub-$5 shares have been penny stocks since 1934 and the “penny” comes from the bid increment, not the price. Remember that stock prices were always based on “pieces of eight” until about 20 years ago and shares below $5 traded in penny increments because 12.5 cents (one-eighth of a dollar) was too large in percentage terms relative to the low share price.

          • On September 16, 2020 at 12:40 pm,
            Matthew says:

            So Jag’s share consolidation makes bid-ask spreads much tighter and that is good for liquidity. The spread between .60 and .61 is the same as 6.00 and 6.10 but now we can trade spreads that are one-tenth the previous size, e.g. 6.05 – 6.06

          • On September 16, 2020 at 4:08 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Yes good points on the tighter range in bid ask spreads with a 10:1 rollback, and that larger funds can now access the stocks above a certain dollar amount. I had heard $3 and $4 in the past, but there are likely some with even higher thresholds ie… $5+

            Also the threshold for trading securities on margin is at $3 with many trading platforms, and they generally need to be primary listings not OTC. Same things with premarket and afterhours trading.

            For all these reasons, I’m a fan of what Jaguar and Excellon and the others before them have done by completing a reverse split to attract a larger sea of capital.

  8. On September 16, 2020 at 10:44 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (NHK) (MIMZF) Nighthawk Reports More Positive Metallurgy for Colomac

    Tuesday, September 15, 2020

    Dr. Michael Byron, President & CEO commented, “We are extremely pleased with the metallurgical results to-date, which continue to substantiate the consistently limited variability of Colomac rock in terms of its hardness and response to standard mineral processing studies. Heap leach testing, including bottle roll and column tests, are still at a preliminary stage; however, results show a favourable response to the deposit’s heap leach potential. We now have a total of ten bottle roll and nine column leach tests that collectively shed considerable insight for the ongoing assessment of the deposit’s heap leach and primary processing potential.”

    “Four metallurgical test programs have now been completed to-date on 12 Colomac bulk samples. Gold recoveries from all studies conducted to date, including the different process routes are summarized in Table 3 and confirm the host rock’s remarkably uniform responses to all process options.”

    https://www.accesswire.com/606101/Nighthawk-Reports-More-Positive-Metallurgy-for-Colomac

  9. On September 16, 2020 at 12:12 pm,
    David says:

    Westhaven having a good move during Powell’s breathing.

    • On September 16, 2020 at 4:11 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, Westhaven was one of the bigger movers in my portfolio today, and they have just done promoting at the virtual Metals Investor Forum conference and the virtual Beavercreek conference. Also Goldfinger was promoting his interview with them yesterday and today.

  10. On September 16, 2020 at 8:15 pm,
    David says:

    I caught the MIF presentation live and bought Westhaven at the break. I will track down Goldfinger’s. I checked the ceo.ca site before I bought and they seemed very positive following the presentation. This is 3rd time I have owned and timing great. Thanks.