Peter Boockvar Insights – Tue 3 Nov, 2020

Peter Boockvar outlines the questions all investors need to consider for this election

This is a recent excerpt from Peter Boockvar’s site – The Boock Report. I think it sums up perfectly the major questions for investors on election day. This is all part of my effort to keep emotions and politics out of this conversation and focus on what will impact markets and investing.

Click here to visit Peter’s site.

I will be chatting with Peter next week. In the meantime have a read over his note below. And please email me any questions you have for Peter when I chat with him next week. My email address is Fleck@kereport.com.

If you told me the election results right now I’d still not have any idea of how the markets would respond.

If Biden wins with the Senate, do we rally in anticipation of a massive spending bill in Q1 or do we selloff for the next two months as people lock in 2020 capital gains tax rates and earnings numbers get cut ahead of a possible corporate tax rate increase in 2021?

Or does the market think those tax rates don’t go up until 2022 and thus there is no pressure to sell imminently?

Or if Biden wins but Republicans keep control of the Senate does the market like divided government or get upset that the fiscal spending package will be much smaller than hoped for?

If Trump wins along with the Senate, is there a lame duck spending package or will Pelosi make them wait until next year, if it happens at all? And will it be smaller than markets want if it does eventually happen?

On the other hand, there will be no tax changes of substance for the next four years but is the status quo enough to lift markets further from here?

Does it mean the Chinese tariffs on more than $300b worth of goods that US companies are paying for are sticking with us for another four years?

If Trump wins and the Dems take the Senate, what spending plan happens then but at least tax rates won’t change?

What if we don’t know the winner for days or weeks? It’s aggravating yes but the uncertainty shouldn’t last more than a week or two but do we selloff anyway?


Comments:
  1. On November 3, 2020 at 12:56 pm,
    cfs says:

    I must not think like a “normal” person.

    If I thought there was going to be an adverse change in Capital Gains Tax rates, I would sell my specific stocks with large gains AND REINVEST THE MONEY in other stocks.
    A change in tax rates has little to do with gains, even when those gains are being targeted.
    The ONLY important decision is whether to invest in stocks or not.
    Since I believe, WHOEVER WINS, money is going to be poured into the market, I believe it a good time to invest in stocks. I will rotate between stock types, and right now I am rotating into commodities.
    But what do I know?