KER Commentary – Mon 18 Jan, 2021

What market internals to watch for an possible broad market correction

Michele Schneider, Managing Director of the Marketgauge Group joins me to share how she views the continued strength in the markets both in the US and broadly. We discuss how economic data could impact markets plus the new balance of Janet Yellen as Treasury Secretary and Jerome Powell as the head of the Fed.

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Comments:
  1. On January 18, 2021 at 11:33 am,
    cfs says:

    Sadly, biden, an illegitimate president, is talking about both a Wealth tax and Excess profits tax. What a way to kill the economy.
    Where is it written that “Everybody deserves to be equal” What a moronic way to kill incentives. Don’t Americans realize that it was free enterprise that took Americans from a mediocre lifestyle at the beginning of the Ninetweenth century to a world power status by the end of that century, despite a cripling civil war ? (A rising tide raises ALL boats, unless you drop anchors from on high onto the better boats.)
    Kill the golden goose if you are that stupid. There are other countries in the world that will gladly receive ambitious workers and capital, driven by the desire to be properly rewarded for hard work or hard-earned money. You may think “America is the best place to live in the world”, but you’re wrong: a person that has not travelled. (that hasn’r driven on pothole free, smooth roads in the Middle East, or flown into highly efficient, sparkling clean airports in Asia)

    • On January 18, 2021 at 11:59 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Yes, it is shocking that socialist-leaning liberal collectivists want to now attack individual accomplishments and success with more taxes on wealth and profits, to redistribute those funds to their social justice warrior programs. (lol)

      Nobody saw that one coming… 🙂

      Well, I’m sure this smart new government administration will now be fiscally responsible, and not blow tons of money trying to stimulate their way out of the financial mess and economic slowdown we are facing due to poor pandemic policies on the national, state, and local levels. Let’s watch with keen interest as they really get things fixed, and give everyone a trophy.

      • On January 18, 2021 at 12:04 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Bad News Is Good News

        Jan. 16, 2021 – Rothko Research

        – Even though news around the vaccine campaign may affect the dynamics of asset prices slightly, it will not be the most important factor in 2021.

        – Any bad news about the pandemic (delays in vaccine, tougher restrictions) is a good news for markets (more liquidity).

        – Correction will not happen as the uncertainty over the ‘Covid19 exit’ is still very elevated.

        – S&P 500 to reach psychological 4,000 in the coming weeks.

        https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399333-bad-news-is-good-news?mail_subject=bad-news-is-good-news&utm_campaign=nl-macro-view&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

        • On January 18, 2021 at 12:24 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          I’m not in agreement with all the projections in that editorial posted above by Rothko Research, but I’m willing to consider their thesis and look at the macro picture from different points of view.

          Personally, I would not be surprised at all to see a large market correction in 2021, driven by a rolling over of the high flying FAANG and Tesla tech stocks (which are what is mainly propping up the larger indexes). There are concerns that inevitably manifest on Wall Street when there is finally a reality check on Main Street, and when markets see the real fallout from keeping small businesses and global citizens locked down for a whole year.

          There will be reckless and bloated fiscal stimulus from the US, from the European Union, from Japan, from China, and governments all over the globe to dry and dig out of the stagflation, and Central Banks will be more than happy to monetize their debt, creating more and more money supply.

          Since these fiscal measures and stimulus bills are injecting more money at the businesses and citizens, the liquidity of the new new money supply will finally be more inflationary than the QE of the last decade (that mostly ended up bailing out banks and insurance companies so they could clean up toxic balance sheets, buy back their own stocks & speculate in the general markets with historically low borrowing rates).

          Savers have been punished with low rates for over a decade, since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and been forced to speculated in the general markets. Passive also investing from retirement funds, has chased the indexes higher and higher. Bond investors rode their 40 year bubble even higher, as rates were smashed down below what anyone could have imagined a decade or two back, but this is not sustainable. The Fed and other central banks are working around the perimeter to control yields from going too high, so even the recent bounce in rates will be capped, as true inflation picks up over the next year and going into 2022. This means real rates will remain negative, which continues to punish savers, and underpins a good environment for Gold or assets like the cryptos. Eventually, when bond traders realize they are boxed in to a controlled yield curve, that is not going too high (maybe the 10 year gets to 2%) and not too low (25-50 basis points), then that whole market will stagnate for a loooong time. As a result, there will be a large sector rotation out of Bonds and some of those money flows will find Gold/Silver, Bitcoin, and defensive dividend paying stocks.

          For the first time in a long time, I’m going to be positioning to short the general markets, and just started on Friday of last week with an initial tranche in (RWM) ProShares Short Russell2000. I’ll be layering into that position as 2021 progresses, and will likely start shorting the Nasdaq soon as well using inverse ETFs. Keep in mind, I have a retirement account still invested in the general markets (although I took that to 60% cash last year), and just want a hedge to that exposure at these lofty levels we see in the general markets, that are totally disconnected from most citizens experience in daily life.

          Wishing everyone prosperous trading in 2021 as we sail off into turbulent and uncharted waters…

          • On January 18, 2021 at 12:30 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Bottom line, we are in a real macroeconomic mess, and all the King’s stimulus, and all the Fed’s printing and yield controls, won’t put the Humpty Dumpty economy back together again.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 12:34 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            5 Dangerous Bubble Stocks: Don’t Be The Bag Holder

            Dec. 30, 2020 – Dane Bowler

            “Trees do not grow to the sky. Consider taking gains on some of the high flyers.”

            “Beyond growing market share, there are a multitude of other factors that need to go right for these companies to become profitable.”

            “In these particular names I see problems related to unit economics, lack of barriers to competition and increasing regulation.”

            The problem, and why the bubble in these spaces is so dangerous for the overall health of the market, is that all of these valuations are based on a hypothetical total addressable market. Further, even when/if the potential disruption happens there are often no mechanisms to ensure that the disruptor is the one who captures the value.

            Thus, the five most dangerous bubble stocks are those that are likely to fail even if the anticipated sea change happens.

            #1 Doordash (DASH)

            #2 Zoom Technologies (ZM)

            #3 Aphria/Tilray (APHA) (TLRY)

            #4 Airbnb (ABNB)

            #5 Uber Technologies (UBER)

            https://seekingalpha.com/article/4396737-5-dangerous-bubble-stocks-dont-be-bag-holder

          • On January 18, 2021 at 12:49 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The queasy air of financial mania

            January 15, 2021 by Danielle Park

            https://jugglingdynamite.com/2021/01/15/the-queasy-air-of-financial-mania/

          • On January 18, 2021 at 2:09 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Is Inflation About to Take Off? That’s the Wrong Question

            “Some analogies can help in assessing the risks: a yo-yo, hungry bears, a sloshing bathtub and a reflating balloon.”

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/16/upshot/inflation-rise.html?smid=em-share

          • On January 19, 2021 at 6:22 am,
            Excelsior says:

            NFIB Survey: Sends A Strong Warning About Small-Cap Stocks

            Jan. 18, 2021 – Lance Roberts – Seeking Alpha

            The latest NFIB survey is sending a strong warning to investors piling into small-cap stocks.

            Currently, many analysts expect a massive economic boom in 2021.

            While stimulus may lead to a short-term boost in consumption, the impact of higher taxes, more regulations, and weak employment growth will suppress consumption longer term.

            https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399488-nfib-survey-sends-strong-warning-small-cap-stocks

      • On January 18, 2021 at 12:40 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        3 Dividends To Buy Before The ‘Blue Wave’ Changes Everything

        Jan. 17, 2021 – Rida Morwa

        “Green Energy – Pick #1: Enviva Partners, LP (EVA) is a creative way to take advantage of the blue wave. It currently yielding 6.7% with a history of substantial dividend growth. ”

        “The second area that we see thriving is residential REITs, and the best opportunity right now is those that focus on the big blue cities. Pick #2: Equity Residential (EQR) is a blue-chip REIT with an A-grade balance sheet that has exposure to New York City and San Francisco, the two hardest hit markets in the US for apartments.”

        “Agency MBS. Pick #3: Mortgage REITs like AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) take advantage of the relative safety of agency MBS and use substantial amounts of leverage to increase returns. They will borrow 90%-plus of the cost of buying agency MBS using very short-term borrowings. Their profitability is dependent on the spread between what they can borrow at and what they earn.”

        https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399030-3-dividends-to-buy-blue-wave-changes-everything

        • On January 18, 2021 at 12:53 pm,
          cfs says:

          We know the Government will TRY to keep interest rates low…..They don’t have a choice with such a large debt.
          However, ordinary folks don’t have the same clout as goverments, so, thicking outside the box, I expect a schism between Government interest rates and mortgage interest rates.
          If Mortgage rates go up substantially, real estate prices will drop.
          I therefore expect stagnation or even bankruptcies in REITs.
          Beware of the level of danger.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 12:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good points CFS. Yes, there are plenty of headwinds in store for real estate, and an epic tug-o-war on rates from the central banks vs the mortgage industry.

            Time to get out the popcorn…

          • On January 18, 2021 at 1:01 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            I love ….Thinking Out Side The Box….. 🙂

          • On January 18, 2021 at 1:05 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            There is already a shift in real estate…….Size, of the units and number of people in the units….
            The young ones are screwed…….inflation in food and school debt, and lack of jobs which pay a living wage.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 1:33 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Agreed OOTB. Out Of The Box…. and into the frying pan…. 😉

          • On January 18, 2021 at 1:38 pm,
            OOTB Jerry says:

            CFS……..is going into the frying pan……..on the Virus…..Irish, is putting the squeeze on him in the political arena…. 🙂

      • On January 18, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
        blazesb says:

        Well, as did Obama following that great president of the right dubya so Biden too follows another rightist who has brought this country literally to its knees.

        You’re being waaaaaaaay too precious here boys. Give the right its due.

        • On January 18, 2021 at 1:47 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Oh I agree blazesb… Both sides of the aisle Republicans and Democrat are both big government, nanny state, “just throw money at it” terrible policy makers. Each president has spent even more than the previous, and the real issue is that there is no appetite for true fiscally conservative balancing of budgets, cutting back on spending in the military, bloated social programs, graft and waste. Austerity was tried briefly in Europe, and was met with cries for more money printing so it will continue to be the same here as well. There is no motivation to actually fix the issues, and most politicians just like to play kick-the-can passing the debt burden, and destruction of purchasing power to future generations.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 2:17 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            The Destructive Force And Failure Of QE

            Jan. 16, 2021 – Goldmoney

            “This article concludes that quantitative easing as a means of stimulating economies and financing government deficits will fail. The underlying assumption is that the transmission of additional money to non-banks in order to inflate financial assets, and to banks to cover government finances, will become too great in 2021 for it to succeed without undermining fiat currencies and financial markets.”

            https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399317-destructive-force-and-failure-of-qe?mail_subject=goldmoney-the-destructive-force-and-failure-of-qe&utm_campaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

          • On January 19, 2021 at 5:53 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Money Printing, Money Printing And More Money Printing

            Jan. 19, 2021 – David Kranzler

            “There are two ways to interpret the relative performance of the mining stocks vs gold/silver. One interpretation is that, because they underperformed, the stocks are signaling at some point the entire sector will decline in 2021. The alternative analysis suggests that, because the metals historically lead the mining stocks in the early stages of an extended bull move in the sector, the entire sector will push higher in 2021, and the mining stocks will “catch up” to and begin to outperform the metals. I am inclined to believe the latter. The precious metals sector is in the middle stage of a cyclical bull move that began at the end of 2015.”

            The same underlying fundamental factors have supported the current cyclical bull move in precious metals. In response to large cracks emerging in the health of the banking system, the Fed began quietly to print money starting in mid-September 2019. Contrary to its insistence that these “repo” operations were temporary, the monetary support provided to the banks quickly escalated both in size and frequency. Note that the system problems were bubbling to the surface well before anyone had ever heard of “coronavirus.”

            “The deteriorating health of the economy and financial system was exacerbated by the virus crisis. In response, the Fed printed even more money than it printed after the 2008 financial crisis, under the guise of supporting and “stimulating” the economy. After a brief sugar high early in the summer of 2020, many measures of economic activity began to slip again. Though some portion of those who lost their jobs in March and April have returned to work, there are still over 20 million recently unemployed who are dependent on jobless benefits.”

            “Worse, the lock-down forced the closure of a large percentage of small businesses across the country. According to a survey done by Yelp, some 60% of these businesses are permanently closed. Over 100,000 restaurants have closed permanently. That, plus the fact that many large shopping malls are losing tenants at an increasing rate, will lead to a commercial real estate debt crisis. By the way, the taxpayers are on the hook for a large portion of the commercial real estate loans that end up in default.”

            “Print or collapse – The only trick left in the bag for the Government to keep the economic and financial system from complete collapse will be the implementation of massive “stimulus” programs. Biden has already called for $trillions of new support programs. Because of this, the Fed will be compelled to print a lot more money this year. That money will be funneled into the financial system to fund massive amounts of Treasury issuance. Printed money not used to fund Treasury issuance will flow into “things” – primarily commodities and maybe stocks.”

            “Currency depreciation through an expansion in the money supply in excess of the marginal output wealth (increase in real GDP) is a slow and silent cancer to any financial and economic system. As history has shown repeatedly, starting with the demise of the Roman Empire, a fiat currency-based monetary system ultimately leads to exploitation and abuse by those who happen to be in a position to benefit from it. The collapse is inevitable, occurring slowly and then suddenly. We believe the current system is entering the “suddenly” stage.”

            https://seekingalpha.com/article/4399584-money-printing-money-printing-and-money-printing?app=1&mail_subject=pre-market-summary-on-your-portfolio-portfolio-1&utm_campaign=nl-portfolio&utm_content=link-3&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

          • On January 19, 2021 at 5:21 pm,
            Matthew says:

            Ex, Blazesb is a blazing fool.

    • On January 18, 2021 at 12:52 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Silver Dollar had posted this on the weekend show blog, but it deserves a repost.

      ________________________________

      Mind Blowing Charts
      January 18, 2021 by Danielle Park

      “A lucid market overview in this 38-minute presentation (with Northman Trader). It’s hard for words alone to capture the lunacy now afoot, long-term charts offer some perspective.”

      https://jugglingdynamite.com/2021/01/18/mind-blowing-charts/

    • On January 18, 2021 at 1:15 pm,
      bonzo says:

      Relax everyone. Biden will not be imposing any new taxes or anything else after he is arrested and tried for treason, along with Pelosi, John Roberts, Swalwell, Clintons, Barack and Mike, etc. I hear Mitt Romney, pence, and Dick Cheney will be arrested too. Then ANTIFA, BLM, and many leftists will attack DC with Chinese weapons. Mortars and cruise missiles are ready. That’s why 30 or 40K troops will be in DC on wed. and why Patriot missiles and F-16 fighters are there. Trump sent his family out of the White House last night. The Chinese backed terrorists may take down the grid and also bomb our nuclear facilities to make dirty bombs. it could get very nasty here for a long time, but it’s better than turning our country over to the communists. Live free or die!

    • On January 19, 2021 at 7:48 am,
      Thomas says:

      I wish that the fake news discussion stops now with the end of Trump‘s presidency. Found an article with arguments for a wealth tax (also don‘t like a wealth tax)

      https://www.barrons.com/articles/why-biden-needs-wealth-taxes-an-argument-for-the-most-progressive-tax-system-51605309663

      • On January 19, 2021 at 10:07 am,
        Big Al says:

        Thomas,
        The volume of it may decrease, but it will definitely still exist.

        I personall am reading the Wall Street Journal and I find it so far to be balanced. I am also watching Tucker Carlson and Lestor Holt to figure out the diffence. Tucker Carlson is very incindiary and Holt watched what he reports very carefully.

  2. On January 18, 2021 at 12:43 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    China tightens Rare-Earth regulations, policing entire supply chain

    Stricter export controls give Beijing leverage amid US tensions

    Shunsuke Tabeta, Nikkei Asia – January 16, 2021

    “China will strengthen regulation over the rare-earth metals industry, from mining to exports, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said Friday, in what some see as its latest response to ongoing tensions with the U.S.”

    “Whereas current regulations focus on the production stage — such as mine development, smelting or separation — the draft law of the new regulations seeks to manage the “entire industry chain” of the precious ore, including refining, product transport and all the way up to exports.”

    https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/China-tightens-rare-earth-regulations-policing-entire-supply-chain#:~:text=China%20accounts%20for%20more%20than,five%2Dyear%20low%20in%202020.&text=The%20draft%20regulations%20prohibit%20the,are%20exploited%20and%20extracted%20illegally

    • On January 18, 2021 at 12:46 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Energy Fuels (UUUU) (EFR) – Investors Only Critical Minerals Hub Outside China

      CruxInvestor – Jan 13, 2021 #VIDEO Interview

      1:11 – Plan for 2021: Ambitions for Critical Minerals
      3:54 – A Reimagined Company: A Look at the Sustainability Report
      7:39 – Delivering the Vision: Challenges & Process
      12:21 – Growth Going Forward: Agreement with The Chemours Company
      17:26 – Resources & Money Requirements: Renewed ATM Program
      19:58 – Relations & Involvement of the US Government

      https://youtu.be/9DE0i6dqjFI

      • On January 18, 2021 at 2:57 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Uranium Insider Mastermind Call w/ Uranium Insider Justin Huhn

        Stephen Penny – 1-10-21

        https://vimeo.com/499456977

  3. On January 18, 2021 at 12:58 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Veteran Mining Dealmaker Plots M&A Push Before Retirement

    By Felix Njini – January 18, 2021- Bloomberg Business

    “South African mining dealmaker Neal Froneman is considering retiring in two to three years time, but would first like to double the size of Sibanye Stillwater Ltd.”

    “I would like to see the company’s size double to a $20 billion market capitalization plus before I move on,” Froneman said in an interview from his farm in South Africa’s Limpopo province. “Two to three years sounds like a good innings and I think we can deliver quite a lot in terms of our strategy.”

    Nicknamed Mr. Fix-It for turning around some of South Africa’ aging gold mines, Froneman has identified opportunities in nickel, copper and lithium and may announce a deal this year. The company is also looking to acquire more gold assets, though high valuations are currently a deterrent, the CEO said.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-18/south-african-mining-dealmaker-plots-m-a-push-before-retirement

    • On January 18, 2021 at 1:04 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Mr Froneman, may I humbly suggest buying your neighbors at Stillwater West in Montana, (PGE) (PGEZF) Group Ten Metals.

      Group Ten Metal’s Platreef-style deposit in Montana is reminiscent of many in South Africa, and is abundant in Platinum/Palladium, Nickel, Gold, Copper, and Cobalt.

      PGE seems like a perfect candidate for Sibanye to acquire in the coming 2 years.

      Bon appetit.

      ________________________________

      (PGE) (PGEZF) Group Ten Metals – Corporate Presentation

      https://grouptenmetals.com/site/assets/files/3631/2020-01-13_group_ten_presentation_live.pdf

      • On January 18, 2021 at 1:32 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Here is the map showing how Group Ten Metals property adjoins Sibanye’s Stillwater project.

        https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1g0bvg3-Group%20Ten%20Metals%20Adjacent%20Sibanye%20Stillwater.JPG

      • On January 19, 2021 at 4:06 am,
        Sach says:

        Oh, so that is the reason why Group Ten Metals instituted a shareholders rights plan last fall and their stock price later climbed in a down market. Now I understand. Sooner or later the exploration companies have to stop drilling holes every ten feet and make a deal.

        • On January 19, 2021 at 6:41 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Personally, I hope Group Ten holds out a bit more, and does more exploration to expand the size of their resources first, before playing “Let’s Make a Deal,” but in general I agree with the point you were making about some companies over-drilling properties and burning through investor funds, without a clear exit strategy.

  4. On January 18, 2021 at 1:48 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Jake Ducey @jakeduceyauthor on Twitter:

    What gives better investing returns this year? Silver or Uranium?

    3,455 votes – Final results:

    Silver – 40.7%
    Uranium – 59.3%

    https://twitter.com/jakeduceyauthor/status/1349879297968889861

  5. On January 18, 2021 at 1:50 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    Northstar @Northst18363337 on Twitter 3:02 PM · Jan 17, 2021

    “Gold….$1760…it’s close to my target from months ago, and it still makes a lot of sense.”

    https://twitter.com/Northst18363337/status/1350941533030244359

  6. On January 18, 2021 at 2:04 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    “In a recent Q&A article with Stockhouse, Nick Brodie, Chief Executive Officer of Galane Gold Ltd. (GG) (GGGOF), sat down with our editorial staff to explain how his company is Company advancing its operations to meet the potential spike in value of gold…already above the $2,000 / Oz. level entering 2021. ”

    “With Phase 2 of its South African Galaxy expansion plan initiated to take production at over 43,000 ounces per year with an objective to increase production to 60,000 ounces annually in Phase 3 – all at an all in operating cash cost of less than $750 per ounce – it’s go time at Galane Gold.”

    http://whatcounts.com/dm?id=10E194D74F3A62A038ED72F32D28F93E4B93FB24D3F3D6A0

  7. On January 18, 2021 at 2:06 pm,
    David says:

    First impressions are that not much can change if Central Banking continues to go unregulated. The debt can’t be paid, the interest probably can’t be paid, Treasury receipts won’t be enough to cover bills, money printing will increase, the Fed will continue to be the major buyer of US debt, the banks will continue to commit fraud, the General Markets will continue to be intervened in, PMs will be manipulated… all until it can’t be anymore. Nothing changes … the people are still the victims.

    • On January 18, 2021 at 2:10 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed that “Nothing changes … the people are still the victims.”

      More of the same… (It’s just a lot more of it… )

      • On January 18, 2021 at 2:35 pm,
        David says:

        More of same…I have seen more comments about how it is working for Japan. Really…must be Central Bankers still smoking the same stuff.

        • On January 18, 2021 at 2:38 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Yeah, who knows what Keynesian material the central bankers are smoking?

          Japan has been flat and lifeless for the last few decades using these same policies.

          Yeah…. no thanks…. I’d prefer not to have what they are having at that table…

          • On January 18, 2021 at 2:53 pm,
            David says:

            Harry met Sally at the Sushi Bar

          • On January 18, 2021 at 2:56 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! David – I’m glad you caught that cinematic reference. 🙂

  8. On January 18, 2021 at 2:20 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (ROXG) (ROGFF) Roxgold Intercepts 42.9 GPT Over 14m & 46.2 GPT Over 11m at Koula as Séguéla Continues to Advance

    @businesswire on 18 Jan 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@businesswire/roxgold-intercepts-429-gpt-over-14m-462-gpt-over

    • On January 18, 2021 at 2:31 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      (LIO) (LOMLF) Lion One Encounters Deep and Shallow High Grade Gold Mineralization at Tuvatu

      @newsfile on 18 Jan 2021

      https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/lion-one-encounters-deep-and-shallow-high-grade-gold

    • On January 18, 2021 at 2:40 pm,
      David says:

      I have been wanting to get some Roxgold for months and can’t decide what to sell. I like this PR snd what they are doing. I was thinking of swapping some Lion One (below) as they are about the same price but further along. Tomorrow….tomorrow….I am breaking in to song with nervous energy.

      • On January 18, 2021 at 2:47 pm,
        David says:

        Roxgold farther along.

      • On January 18, 2021 at 2:47 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        Hi David – I like them both (Roxgold and Lion One) for similar reasons and different reasons. Both are well run companies with solid management teams, both are exploring and developing exciting Gold projects, and both are trading at a discount to their North American peers, for operating in more exotic jurisdictions (but they really aren’t that exotic of places, and both have solid operations all around them)

        Roxgold is in a different stage of mining as established producer, but they are developing their 2nd mine and have a huge growth trajectory.

        Lion One may have locked into one of the largest Gold deposits being explored for on the planet as those alkaline deposits can grow to 10-40 million ounces. Lion One is gunning for smaller scale production to start, and then fund the further exploration of their caldera organically.

        I wouldn’t be without a position in either in a strong bull market in Gold, but maybe “tomorrow… tomorrow…” they’ll pullback and offer more investors a change to load up.

        Ever Upward!

      • On January 18, 2021 at 2:58 pm,
        David says:

        Back to the drawing board. I need to cut back so the most speculative has to go…Tesla, but I don’t own it.

        • On January 18, 2021 at 7:33 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          It’s always a tough call David, as sometimes the most speculative have the furthest to run in the bull market moves, but I like have a mix of small to mid-size producers, some development plays moving towards production, some exploration plays with advanced known deposits, some early stage greenfields high risk/reward drill plays, and some more diversified royalty plays.

          May your trading be prosperous.

  9. On January 18, 2021 at 2:23 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    (NEE) (NHVCF) Northern Vertex Reports Revenue of US$23.4 Million and Production of 12,401 Gold Equivalent Ounces for Quarter Ending December 31, 2020

    @newswire on 18 Jan 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/northern-vertex-reports-revenue-of-us234-million

  10. On January 18, 2021 at 2:28 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    If any investors are attending the AME Roundup conference today, check out the (WM) (WLBMF) Wallbridge Mining core shack. They’ve been slaying it with great exploration results the last 2 years, and now that they’ve acquired Balmoral, and have all those other properties in Detour Lake, (adjacent to Detour Gold that Kirkland Lake acquired last year), I believe they are prime takeover candidates after they continue to impress with the drill bit.

    https://twitter.com/WallbridgeWM/status/1351251639596961793/photo/1

  11. On January 18, 2021 at 3:22 pm,
    RICHARD/DOC says:

    I’ve been waiting to add to my significant position in Wallbridge.

    • On January 18, 2021 at 3:30 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Ditto Doc. The same.

      • On January 18, 2021 at 4:18 pm,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        Ex, I believe there is no hurry since the stock should trend slowly down for some time.

        • On January 18, 2021 at 6:27 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          That is fine by me, as I’d like to add more to my position, and it is one of the gold developers I like a great deal, like Sabina Gold & Silver, Minera Alamos, Treasury Metals, and Orezone. I’m working on reducing down position size in some of my positions in others, and if Wallbridge goes further on sale, I’d like more time to accumulate. If there is a harsh selloff in the miners, then it would be one I’d be looking to add as well.

        • On January 18, 2021 at 6:29 pm,
          Matthew says:

          That one looks weak as in “left for dead” rather than being strongly bearish. In other words, buyable, in my opinion. Those daily oscillators don’t support my view at the moment other than the MACD positive divergence since late October but the price action seems to.
          https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p52221608266&a=875663418

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:33 pm,
            Matthew says:

            The bulk of the strength down was spent in the 6 consecutive weeks lower following the September high. Aside from the recent/current weakness (which has not been bad for this stock), price has mostly drifted sideways in an “ending action” kind of way:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WM.TO&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20893326479

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:34 pm,
            Matthew says:

            *I do not own it and am not planning on owning it.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:51 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Good charts and analysis Matthew. I like the ending action… kind of like a pebble falling down hill with big pop and drops, and then a series of smaller ones, near fork support and those longer term MAs. It’s possible it could break down below those levels, and then it would become even more attractive as far as valuation, but if bases here sideways to a little more down, and then heads back up higher with the rest of the sector that would be fine as well, and make that series of lows along that same congestion area good support moving forward. Either way, I like Wallbridge medium to longer term for their fundamental assets at Fenelon and the surround properties they acquired from taking over Balmoral. They also have a nice Nickel asset in Grasset that will likely get spun out into a separate vehicle, so that is another positive for down the road.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            That comment was in reference to the daily chart, more so than the weekly chart.

          • On January 18, 2021 at 7:38 pm,
            Matthew says:

            I don’t often look for diamond bottoms but that might be what we have here. If so, it signals exhaustion of the move down as well as bulls and bears that are equally unwilling to commit. Something like 70-80% resolve bullishly as expected but this one is very close to breaking out bearishly. We should know tomorrow and the metals look like they just might help out the bulls after that dip we had this morning.
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WM.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p98667777136&a=875696173

          • On January 18, 2021 at 7:55 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It will be interesting to see which way WM breaks out of the diamond consolidation (better up than down of course, so a little help from the metals would be nice).

            Paul Simon – Diamonds On The Soles Of Her Shoes

            https://youtu.be/-I_T3XvzPaM

  12. On January 18, 2021 at 4:19 pm,
    blazesb says:

    Wish I’d bought some Trump pardon options. They’re going thru the roof! Hard to come by though as they trade strictly under the counter.

  13. On January 18, 2021 at 6:36 pm,
    Excelsior says:

    “20/20 – Not perfect vision” – Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights

    Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

    https://youtu.be/kduL-GdAcn4

    • On January 18, 2021 at 6:38 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “‘Stocks are still incredibly cheap..” Greg McCoach of The Mining Speculator

      Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

      https://youtu.be/j7N8uTGWSfQ

      • On January 18, 2021 at 6:39 pm,
        Excelsior says:

        “Current Picture For Gold” – Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter

        Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

        https://youtu.be/1CkmJX4I8Ys

        • On January 18, 2021 at 6:40 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          “‘Exuberant!” – Eric Coffin of HRA Advisories

          Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

          https://youtu.be/fk41NqVObBA

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:41 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            “The dollar’s demise in 2021…” – Jay Taylor presents

            Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

            https://youtu.be/_-XxdUIpoOc

          • On January 18, 2021 at 6:42 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            “How To Play This Market -And Win.” – Gwen Preston of Resource Maven

            Metals Investor Forum – at January 2021 Virtual #MIF

            https://youtu.be/ko-hMySOZL4

  14. On January 18, 2021 at 9:01 pm,
    OOTB Jerry says:

    Hey Ex……….thanks for all the info…..appreciate…..
    You also, Matt…..

    • On January 18, 2021 at 11:10 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks OOTB. Right back atcha man!

  15. On January 19, 2021 at 1:54 am,
    Excelsior says:

    SilverChartist Report, (01-17-2021) #VIDEO review

    https://www.silverchartist.com/optin-460192131610925270119

    • On January 19, 2021 at 3:16 am,
      Excelsior says:

      That video review from SilverChartist was really well done, and had contributions from Kevin Wadsworth, Patrick Karim, and Jeff Clark. Also, SilverChartist did a nice shotgun approach on some of the Silver stocks and Uranium stocks he follows, as well as doling out some wise investing insights on position sizing, scaling into positions, trading options, and pulling profits. Good stuff.

    • On January 19, 2021 at 3:14 am,
      Excelsior says:

      I don’t know about $20K, but on percentage basis Ethereum has been outperforming Bitcoin lately, as it represents an entire blockchain layer that many other applications can be built on top of. The thesis of Metcalf’s Law is that as that network becomes larger, with more adoption, then the value goes up in tandem. It could represent more upside potential than Bitcoin in the medium to longer term, and if the cryptos would ever pull back more meaningfully, I may actually pick up some ETH.

      • On January 19, 2021 at 3:31 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Peter Schiff: Bitcoin still going to ‘collapse’; ‘death spiral’ of inflation coming (Pt. 1/2)

        Kitco News – Jan 18, 2021

        0:00 – Biden’s stimulus plan
        3:42 – Inflation
        5:56 – Gold price
        7:58 – Gold vs Bitcoin
        9:50 – Bitcoin is “biggest bubble of all”

        https://youtu.be/6fmwTGpVCvo

      • On January 19, 2021 at 4:58 am,
        Wolfster says:

        Personally I’m still riding the voyageur digital train higher but as far as Ethereum goes,I believe Hive is also good way to plat it..

        • On January 19, 2021 at 5:48 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Great job Wolfster. Yes, Hive is a great way to play mining the Ethereum, and I owned it back in 2016/2017, but then sold it when things turned down in the sector. Last year, I almost pulled the trigger a few times on HIVE and then thought, it had already moved a bit too much, but then it really took off in December & January. It’s my biggest regret over the last few months to have seen indecision lead to such a missed gain, but that’s how it goes…

  16. On January 19, 2021 at 4:08 am,
    Excelsior says:

    I’m nibbling on a few Silver & Gold stocks in the premarket trading, and thus far it looks like the metals prices are trending mildly higher, so I’m expecting to see a bump in the miners to kick things off in the normal trading session.

    • On January 19, 2021 at 4:37 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Added to my (SILV) Silvercrest and (AUMN) Golden Minerals positions, reduced down slightly my (DNN) Denison after it has made quite a move, but still have a nice core position in place. Got stink bids in place on many stocks, but saving most of my dry powder for opportunities as they arise during the week. I may even pick up a volatility position in TVIX today, just as a hedge against anything wacky on Wednesday.

      • On January 19, 2021 at 6:07 am,
        BDC says:

        SILV is near perfectly saturated down.
        However, PM indices are mixed.
        Some clear, some close.

        • On January 19, 2021 at 7:03 am,
          Excelsior says:

          I like the fundamental backdrop of SILV, and it is getting beat down from over $12 down to $9.26, so I added a bit.

          Yes the rest of the PM sector is a mixed back today, and Uranium miners are mixed.

          I ended up adding a new VIXY position to play the VIX volatility index, just in case things get wild on Wednesday.

          • On January 19, 2021 at 7:06 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I took the funds from selling DNN and rotated them over to URG. Made nice profits in both this year and last, but DNN was looking overbought, and I did great getting out of URG last week during the surge, and rebought on Friday and today for much less than I sold it. Fun times in the Uranium sector.

          • On January 19, 2021 at 7:31 am,
            Excelsior says:

            (NAM) New Age Metals got the trim today as well, after running hard yesterday and today on no discernable news. Rolled profits into (GRDM) Grid Metals, but kept a core position in NAM to keep riding the wave higher.

          • On January 19, 2021 at 7:36 am,
            Excelsior says:

            I also picked up a small JDST position today as a hedge, just in case we see things break down further in the PMs in the days to come…

          • On January 19, 2021 at 7:40 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Added more Goldon, more Kodiak Copper, and more Ely Gold into today’s weakness.

          • On January 19, 2021 at 7:42 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Today is such an evenly distributed day, that my bloated portfolio is nearly unchanged on the day down 6/100th of a percent. Ha!

            I’m going to go take a nap… wake me up if anything interesting happens…

        • On January 19, 2021 at 8:58 am,
          BDC says:

          Or, “…full Saturation(down).”
          After a period of development,
          a lexicon is still being created.
          (I may quantify things later.)

  17. On January 19, 2021 at 4:34 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (VZLA) (VIZSF) Vizsla expands Napoleon further towards surface, to depth and to the north at Panuco Project, Mexico

    @newswire on 19 Jan 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/vizsla-expands-napoleon-further-towards-surface-to

  18. On January 19, 2021 at 4:38 am,
    Excelsior says:

    (AR) (ARNGF) Argonaut Gold Announces Record Quarterly Production of 56,986 Gold Equivalent Ounces and Annual Production of 203,483 Gold Equivalent Ounces; Provides 2021 Production, Cost and Capital Guidance

    Jan 19, 2021

    https://ceo.ca/@newswire/argonaut-gold-announces-record-quarterly-production

  19. On January 19, 2021 at 5:00 am,
    TORONt0 says:

    Hi Excelsior
    just want to pick your brain this morning. lol
    Maybe you can share your thoughts associated with these companies.
    abraplata resources corp ABRA
    aftermath silver AAG
    defiance silver corp DEF
    aya gold and silver AYA
    please feel free to say anything.

    • On January 19, 2021 at 9:32 am,
      BDC says:

      I use 7 facets of saturation in my system.
      AYA shows little downside saturation;
      however, it is fully Saturated(up).
      [Beware: This method is new.]

      • On January 19, 2021 at 9:37 am,
        BDC says:

        (MYAGF numbers.)

    • On January 19, 2021 at 3:33 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Toronto. First let me say I love the Silver Jrs and think most of them will continue to do fantastic as this bull market still has 2-3 more good years left, so all of those will be good horses to ride.

      I owned Abraplata for a while and made good returns in it, but when they were getting more copper focused (in addition to the Silver/Gold), then I had pulled profits because copper hadn’t run as high as it has now, and I was minimizing my exposure to Argentina due to the politics and currency situation. ABRA has continued to rise in price though, and it is widely followed. Diablillos could be the kind of project that the big boys (in particular Copper/Gold producers) would want to acquire.

      Aftermath Silver (AAG) is one that has done fantastic on their exploration potential, and I regret not having positioned in it back in 2020 when it first came on my radar. It is one of a handful of Silver explorers I’m looking to add on any meaningful weakness.

      Defiance Silver (DEF) is one that I’ve followed for a while, and have traded around the position, and just fortified it again last week. That land in Mexico is quite prospective, and it was hard to watch it languish in years past, because as Bob Moriarty told us on here years ago, “All they have to do is just start sticking holes anywhere on that property and they’ll hit, as it is incredibly mineral rich.” The big issue in the past was a lack of interest in the silver miners, and not enough money to move forward. Last year, when they brought on Quinton Hennigh to consult, and when the miners were doing better and they could raise funds, they had great exploration results again, and I believe the best days for Defiance Silver are in front of them, so I’m a happy shareholder.

      Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) – used to Maya Gold and Silver (MAYA) and I wasn’t a fan of how their old team was treating their old tailings with just a membrane over it, and reached out to the company a few times with concerns that other geologists had raised to me, and they never got back to me, or addressed anything I sent over, so I passed on that story. They are producing in Morocco right? I haven’t looked at it in a few years, and don’t even know why they changed the name from Maya to Aya, but assume there have been bigger changes than that and need to take another look.

      ____________________________________

      These are the Silver Stocks that I currently have in the portfolio and know a little better:

      Silver Stocks
      Coeur Mining
      Hecla Mining
      Silvercorp Metals
      Americas Silver Corp
      Endeavour Silver
      Excellon Resources
      Golden Minerals
      Impact Silver Corp
      Santacruz Silver
      Alexco Resource Corp
      Aurcana Corp
      Silvercrest Metals
      Bayhorse Silver
      Discovery Metals Corp
      Kootenay Silver Inc
      Dolly Varden Silver
      Metallic Minerals
      Vizsla Resources Corp
      Silver Tiger Metals
      Defiance Silver
      Blackrock Gold Corp
      Reyna Silver Corp
      Orex Minerals Inc
      Brixton Metals

  20. On January 19, 2021 at 5:42 am,
    BDC says:

    https://postimg.cc/Wqgb9pGF
    Large ‘Thru-Gap’ below 10.
    ‘3 Gap Play’ down in Rates?