What’s the deal with gold’s breakdown?
I was planing on focusing this weekend’s show on a couple different markets but the breakdown in gold shifted everything. I spend the entire hour analyzing what is driving this move down in gold. We look at the gold miners and a couple key markets that are critical to understanding.
When you have time please go back through the week and listen to the Daily Editorials focused on markets and stocks. If you have any questions for the companies featured or topics you want me to focus on please email me at Fleck@kereport.com.
Thanks for listening!
- Segment 1 and 2 – Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management and Manager of the Euro Pacific Gold Fund kicks off the show with comments on gold’s trend before the breakdown. We discuss everything from historic bull markets in gold to how the miners are being viewed by generalist funds.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner of CPM Group wraps up the show with an extended discussion on the significance of the breakdown in gold at the end of the week.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- Enduro Metals – A new target for the upcoming drill program and a question on insider ownership
- Organto Foods – Introducing this fresh organic food provider on track to cash flow positive this year
- Kodiak Copper – Following up on the recent step-out drill results from the Gate Zone on the MPD Project
- Thor Explorations – Introducing this under the radar near-term gold producer in Nigeria with 10,000meters of exploration starting soon in Senegal
- Granite Creek Copper – A Copper explorer in Yukon with plans to growth the current resource with a 10,000meter program this year
- Tarachi Gold – A look into near term cash flow at the Magistral Property and exploration potential at the Tarachi Project
- Heliostar Metals – Additional drill results from the Aquila Target that includes some of the best grade and widths
- Eloro Resources – More information on the drill results from yesterday at the Iska Iska Project
- Mammoth Resources – A micro-cap explorer in Mexico with the Tenoriba Project
- AUX Resources – Assay results from historic drill holes yielding some high grade results
- Mountain Boy Minerals – A discussion on the recent disappointing drill results at the American Creek Project
- Fireweed Zinc – Drill results today outline a new discovery made at depth at the the Boundary West Zone
- SilverCrest Metals – Recapping the Feasibility, Equity Financing, Debt Facility, and New Discovery at El Picacho
Great show. Great guests. Thanks again Cory for the work you put in.
+1 Thanks to all the KE Report contributors to another full week of daily editorials, tons of company updates, and another solid weekend show.
The action in the equities: AU; BTG; EQX; FNV; GOLD; KGC; KL; NEM; RGLD; SAND; WPM since November were offering clues/evidence that the equities aforementioned were leading the physical metal lower. We need to see the grind lower in these equities cease/stop and then repair the technical damage that has been inflicted before resumption to higher ground. Will need some repair and healing, which will take some time.
Mineral, you are correct and some of these have farther to fall yet.
Doc, I listened to your and Cory’s talk/podcast about a week or so ago and couldn’t have agreed more with your observation/analysis that we had lower levels in the offing. I knew we were headed lower for two specific reasons.
1. The action in the equities that I mentioned above
2. Rates (TNX; US10Yr ) were not done with their move higher
There have been some ‘Technicians’ (several) and I won’t mention names, who came right out two weeks ago and Called The Bottom ‘In’.
Nevertheless, I have been at this for 30-yrs now (Formerly professionally) with 8 of those mentoring/working under whom I would consider The Best of The Best Technicians in the world Stan Weinstein. What a privilege and learning experience that I am forever grateful.
In any event, here’s some of my thoughts / postings from my Twitter regarding the move in TNX/TLT/Rates chronicled from 10/21/20 .797% to recent.
Read the entire threads.
Here is what I was warning about since Nov/December with regards to the action in the names mentioned above.
Here is my chronicling of the move in Copper from last year when the red metal was left for dead. I was very bullish and constructive.
In any event, lots of great contributions here and have always had tremendous respect for Big Al and Cory as they have and continue to run a great site and offer its listeners invaluable service with great guests and a fantastic community.
BTW, you may very well be right that we have some further slippage ahead. However, we are getting closer and will need to repair some of the technical damage that has been inflicted before the next leg into greener pastures resumes.
This is Phase III of a longstanding Metals (Gold/Silver) Secular Bull that began in the early ’00’s and will end with Gold & Silver much higher and PM Equities delivering 5-10-20X returns. In essence, a Mania that will resemble the Dot.com era. We are not there yet, but presently experiencing the pause in order to build further energy/cause for the next leg.
Have a great weekend~To All~
Mineralsrmoney – Great work and charting over at your twitter feed @MarketPulses.
Best to: “Trade in the Edge Zone”
Bogey target 1711.61 soon?
Per STATS, TLT is at MaxSat(3.5) and its earliest possible low is Monday 3/1 (where such is plus/minus one day).
Its weekly close shows a classic Candle Hammer bottom, but we will not know for sure until New York markets close on Monday, or possibly later. Although a retest is expected, it need not produce a new low.
The other side: https://ibb.co/8cL4ndd
Is TNX really shooting for the late 2019 High, or will this hunt end with the shot just fired?
The air came out of the Bond Bubble last summer, when things rolled over, and investor sold safe haven Bonds, and conversely interest rates started rising.
At this point the 10 year treasury rates have really shot up rapidly and made quite a move on a percentage basis, so it is likely that rates are going to hit resistance soon and roll over, when bond buying picks up a for a period and rallies. As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised to see TLT bottom and then start to move up higher starting next week.
Hey Ex, this video is a must watch, it will make you laugh, I call it “Gravy Train “, it features Rob Ford the former mayor of Toronto and his brother Doug Ford who is currently The Premier of Ontario, Canada. If you liked “The Cashman” you will really like this video. DT
Loved it ….DT
Thanks DT. That was funny, and I remember his scandal. “You’re gonna see a change…”
Yes, we had a good laugh at Wolfster’s post of Oliver Jewelry’s music video with “Cash Man”
How about this one – Cash Machine, with another Oliver, where he pulls his horde of gold bricks out on the water for a ride?
> Oliver Tree – Cash Machine
For anyone that missed Wolfster’s post earlier this week, or that may still worried about the setup in #PreciousMetals, just a friendly reminder that they can always sell their #Gold to Mr. Oliver the “Cashman” in Toronto. He’ll “give you cash”… 🙂
> Oliver Jewellery Cashman Music Video
The first duty of Russell Oliver is to give you cash by making you feel good about yourself, LOL! DT
Well, Mr. Oliver is the Cash Man after all. LOL!
Thanks again Cory for your efforts. Enjoy listening to Adrian. Subscribed to his letter a long time ago. His grasp of gold history is superb. The statement about generalists abandoning mine holdings because of disastrous management decisions explains a lot. His view that they are becoming interested again could be very big. Also the connection of silver to nuclear power. Wasn’t aware.
One statement I question is the statement that “no banks hold any silver”. I’m thinking of JPMorgan and their supposedly vast physical holdings of silver. I’d like to know his view of what Morgan will to with their hoard when silver hits triple digits.
‘to’ to do……….
Here’s BB Tucker. I like his words a bit more than his hairdo. ps://kingworldnews.com/e-b-tucker-forget-gold-silver-takedown-we-are-in-the-early-stages-of-one-of-the-biggest-m
EB Tucker is always entertaining and informative to listen to.
I just bought back into (MTA) Metalla Royalties on Friday, to support his efforts and hairdo.
I like EB AS WELL. He reminds me a bit like the 2nd coming old Amir Adnani 5-6 years ago.. He pops up everywhere
SD, of course we know that JP Morgan has a lot of silver, when was the last time they were audited, this too could be another Fort Knox gold situation, we’d like to think it’s there but do we really know. How transparent is JP Morgan. DT
DT: Good question on the audit issue. However, I’ve personally little doubt that they own the silver. Remember, they ended up with Morgan Stanley’s silver shorts after being pushed to buy them by the Fed back in the ’07 debacle. They are as crooked as all the bullion banks IMO but probably the smartest.
Great show – you interviewed the Golden Douro. Thanks for all your efforts!
Weekend show: What’s the deal with golds breakdown?
800 pound gorilla: bond yields/monetary change/real economy/Trump(not Biden)
The 10 year bond paying 3.5% is normal in a good economy. Pension funds and insurance companies will merge back to those bonds. Gold will take the hit for it.
The pension funds have a heavier thumb on the scale than you do.
Chartster, it’s unlikely the FED will let the 10 year treasury yield get back up to 3.5% anytime soon, without them stepping in and buying bonds to control the yields. I’ll be surprised if they let it get up much above 2%, because the general markets would have a big fit above 2.5-3%. The bond bubble popped last summer when yields got down to 0.318% and bonds were at an all time high, but now interest in bonds has cratered, and treasury yields climbed up over 1.5% earlier this week. That move up in rates will eventually get capped by the central banksters, or it will implode the whole debt-burdened system. When rates are stuck in a range, pension funds and insurance companies will diversify out of bonds and into gold, not the other way around.
As for the real economy, it is not nearly as rosy and the pundits on financial media outlets are touting, and the general markets are getting way ahead of themselves with regards to all the positivity on re-opening trades, and reflation, and expectations for a booming economy later in the year.
We have not seen the other shoe drop yet regarding the decimation of the small business sector from a year of lockdowns, business closings, burning 50+ US downtown cities over the summer for months, millions of people out of work, people chewing through savings, and the changes in behavior.
There are longer term implications from the last year of mayhem, and many patterns of behavior are not going back to pre-pandemic levels. Most corporations have completely retooled how they communicate internally, and are not going back to flying around the country for conferences or in-person meetings, and will be permanently doing video conferences which are less expensive and more efficient. Many businesses will be downsizing their commercial office spaces, as more employees will continue to work from home for now on. With so many small business owners taken out at the knees with the lockdowns, in addition to all the ones that were looted or burned to the ground, it is likely that commercial real estate is going to be hit pretty hard for the foreseeable future.
People are still not able to travel globally, which is killing the hospitality sector of hotels, rental cars, airlines, cruises, theme parks, and related tourism industries. Movie theaters were already struggling before all this played out, and people are not going to rush right out and cram themselves into crowded movies (despite the recent run up in AMC), as most would rather sit inside and stream movies on their home entertainment systems.
The impact of the policies coming out of the pandemic has not been fully realized, and those on Wall St and Bay St have a major disconnect going on with how they are viewing the economic recovery, and the reality of the economics for most average citizens and business owners on Main St.
Once the financial bobble-heads on TV do finally get a clue, then there may indeed be a serious roll-over in the conventional markets and a “sell-everything” panic. That is definitely something to be concerned about after the markets have been a runaway train now for 12 years. Eventually gravity will set in and blow all the froth out the markets, and I’m less convinced the Fed will be able to backstop it during the next major market dislocation, but they will try to print their way out of it; like they always do.
Michael Gentile – U.S. at risk of insolvency from higher yields; these assets would be ‘destroyed’
Kitco News – Feb 27, 2021
“The U.S. government is now so heavily indebted, that if interest rates continue to climb up, interest expenses alone could bankrupt the Treasury, said Michael Gentile, strategic investor and board member on several gold mining companies.”
“If you take the $30 trillion of debt that [the U.S. government] has now, assuming rates go to 5%, which is not a crazy number historically on a 100 year perspective, that would be $1.5 trillion of interest expense, which would be 50% of their revenues, up from 10% of their revenues. So quite simply, they’d be completely insolvent at that level of interest rates,” Gentile said, adding that the same apples to the other G7 countries.”
I had posted this article from Lyn Alden Schwartzer last week and she nailed it here.
The Treasury Yield Stress Point
Feb. 22, 2021 – Lyn Alden Schwartzer
“If Treasury yields continue to rise that may pose a problem for growth stock valuations.”
“However, the Federal Reserve always has the option to intervene and suppress yields, for which the release valve is the currency.”
“Since the third quarter of 2020, most of the global economy has been in a reflationary cycle, meaning that we’re getting rising economic activity, rising inflation, and rising long-term Treasury yields from very low levels.”
“Most asset classes have benefited from it, but going forward if this trend continues, rising Treasury yields would put pressure on overstretched growth stock valuations and financial assets across the board more generally.”
Danielle DiMartino Booth – Will yield surge get out of control? This is Fed’s next move
Kitco News – Feb 25, 2021
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly surged above 1.6% on Thursday. Until the Federal Reserve declares an intervention to bring down the long-end of the curve, equities markets could see continued “nervousness” said Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of Quill Intelligence.
0:00 – Federal Reserve and inflation
4:37- Bond yield rise
6:15 – Fed reaction to yield rise
8:46 – Stock market reaction
You have great comments, as always.
There are some things that I know are absolutely going to happen, and some things I’m unsure of the effects of what’s going to happen. And the timing is always, subject-to, other things.
Here is what I do know.
A) there is a reset that is going to happen. There is a fight between good and evil over how the reset happens. (who benefits).
B) there is a global government restructure underway. Here in the states, it’s going to get real fun. Biden won’t be in the equation.
C) the FED has zero control of anything. Yes they are open. No, they make no important decisions regarding our money supply. (the families don’t control squat)
D) when monetary policy changes, the whole script gets flipped. No more QE, no more derivative BS, no more FED funding it’s own companies that “it used to” control.
E) no more fiat bond issuance to pension funds and insurance companies. They all have to have real assets. That’s why the T bonds are going to go up.
Gold will/should go back up (like always) but it has to get under this environment.
I agree with a lot of what you said as well. I just know the fed is cooked. It’s the real game changer.
Chartster – thanks for the response back and for sharing a few areas you are looking at for major change or restructuing as the “Great Reset” continues to play out.
We definitely live in interesting times.
In DC there is new construction at 21st and Pennsylvania NW which started over two years ago and is now built up to the third floor, with more obviously planned. I wonder if it will even be completed!
Chartster, re: “The 10 year bond paying 3.5% is normal in a good economy.” Nonsense. There’s no such thing as normal regarding interest rates in this fiat system. The 10 year topped at nearly 16% in 1981. By 1984, it peaked near 14%. In 1987, it peaked near 9%. In 1994, it peaked near 8%. In 2000, it peaked at 6.66%. In 2006-2007, it peaked over 5%. In 2010, it peaked just under 4%. For decades prior to 1981, the trend was up. Do you get the picture?
Furthermore, there is zero evidence to suggest that the Fed has lost ANY of it power. Whatever you’re smoking, you should avoid for your own good.
Good exchange chartser and ex.. I would just add my little bit in regards to charts the corrective move is nothing we should be shocked about as it has happened in the past. Nothing more than wash rinse repeat but make it clear we are in a bull market.
Ex I agree fed will step in with all the fire power they have and not let rates go up. These guys are ready to go down dying with it. Eventually it will give way down the road.
Agreed Glenfidish, the central banksters are ready to go down dying with it, and they’ll eventually be forced to step in buy up bonds to stop the bond exodus, and that will bring rates back down and create liquidity. The other concern is if they lose control of the inflation genie and can’t get it back in the lamp once it is unleashed.
Final thoughts in regard to my gold update last night!
This response was to canucksi
I almost forgot to mention, I was thinking out loud today at some comments from the group here. The fact is we are getting extremely super oversold soon and the divergence as Matt said and the length of time ex pointed out combined with most technicians and Gary’s insurance the turn better be soon, and finally my date of this low is going to produce what I believe to be the pressure cooker style of explosion of the lid coming out of that bottom. That’s hey I think this is absolutely the time to but this week as we head to those targets because it will turn and turn with what Matt for sure and myself and others I would think is with extremely high volume.. I think it will be monstrous and will launch the next rise in commodities and with a statement as we know!
If we see further pressure in the PMs this week, down to lower targets, then I’ll be on the hunt for deals in the related gold mining stocks, and be out bottom fishing in the depths of low sentiment.
Ex, I’ll be interested in you’re giving thought to the nature of the shares you’ll be purchasing in terms of potential torque out of the gate, vs let’s say dividend payment for long term or general long term growth plays.
Do you plan to throw the net wide for what appears to be more of a portfolio style positioning, or are you thinking you’ll be jumping in with surgical precision on a few key companies?
Hi Canuckski. I generally get a rough idea together of the positions I may want to sell or add the night before or the early morning, but it can sometimes change mid-day if key news hits the markets, or the technical picture changes.
My system is nothing fancy, and just have a spreadsheet broken out by different commodity sectors, and the list of companies I want to add in each one. It’s printed out, and I hand write on a post-a-note the companies to sell and buy each day, and cross them off as I go during a trading session, but rarely get them all bought or sold once the day begins and the setups may change.
In general, my strategy is more of the wide-net approach, to managing the weightings of my holdings, similar to balancing a ETF, but done daily.
I look at having a mix of larger more stable companies like the mid-tier producers
and royalty companies as larger positions (slow & steady growth, less risk), then some of the smaller producers & larger Developers as medium sized positions (medium growth & medium risk), and then some of the smaller developers and explorers (high risk & high reward potential).
For a long time, I’ve shared my trades mid-day if I wrap up early, or the end of the day on one of the current blogs, or sometimes near the bottom of the prior days blog. Obviously I don’t feel compelled, nor do I always have the bandwidth to share every single trade every day, because often I just do a day trade or quick turn a swing-trade.
In general though, I enjoy hearing the company trades that other investors are making, and have done my best to share my trades back in return, as that is the primary reason I’m active in the chat forums – for investing ideas.
Here are some of my trading comments from the last few days as examples of what has been getting bought & sold:
> On February 23, 2021 at 10:19 pm,
“I was actually somewhat active today in the market, adding to Platinum Group Metals, Lithium Americas, Gold Standard Ventures, Tarachi Gold, Fortitude Gold, Ur-Energy, Ucore, Mind Medicine, and the MJ ETF. ”
> On February 24, 2021 at 1:16 pm,
“I picked back up a position in New Age Metals (NAM) today in the late morning, as I had sold out of it on that pop on Feb 10th, and got in at a better price. In addition, I picked up a volatility position in (VXX), and third tranche of Aris Gold this afternoon. The only thing I sold today to harvest gains, was my (FIL) Filo Mining into the raging Copper strength of late.”
> On February 25, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
“I did some trimming in the Coppers (Sold Atico/ trimmed Western Copper and Kodiak), but did add a little to my IBC Advanced Alloys as they are downstream in the Copper, Beryllium, and Scandium markets producing alloys for industry. I had mentioned selling Filo Mining yesterday, so now I’m down from 10 to only 8 Copper stocks, and smaller position in 2 of those remaining. I also trimmed down Grid Metals a little, and while they are Palladium/Nickel play, they also have some Copper exposure.”
“I trimmed back a few profitable Golds & Silvers (Anaconda, Golden Minerals, Hecla, Endeavour Silver, Inca One, Mexus Gold), but then conversely added to others that I had trimmed recently since they had continued to pull back today. (Jaguar, Gold Standard Ventures, Sailfish Royalties) I almost bought some more SAND today, but decided to wait to see if we get lower prices. As mentioned yesterday, I’m already pretty stocked up on Sandstorm, but if we see more weakness I may add a little more to the pile.”
“Another good pickup and hedge on todays action was my pick-up of JDST in the pre-markets and then more was added earlier in the morning. I held onto the position for tomorrow, in case there is any follow through selling or PM weakness.
Other trades today were the adding the VXX volatility position in 2 tranches, and the RWM short Russell2000, both of which did well, but I held onto those for tomorrow as well. I also added more to Ucore Rare Metals, and Platinum Group Metals. I did trim a bit of my Ur-Energy back mid-day as well.”
> On February 26, 2021 at 1:18 pm,
“Today I also sold my 3 hedges for a profit (JDST), (VXX), and (RWM), which raised quite a bit more dry powder.”
“On the buying side I added back my positions in Endeavour Silver, Golden Minerals, Orocobre Ltd, and Metalla Royalties; and added to my existing positions in Argonaut Gold, Jaguar Mining, Nomad Royalties, Sandstorm Gold, Sierra Metals, Santacruz Silver, Fosterville South, Bonterra Resources, Fury Gold, Platinum Group Metals, and NexGen. I also added 2 new pot stocks; Delta 9 Cannabis and Fiore Cannabis. At the end of the day I made the decision to move over some funds into my trading account from deep savings, to have some more funds to deploy next week. Overall the busiest day in the markets I can remember for this year.”
lol Ex, I can’t keep up with your volume of trades. We had similar holdings in a lot of companies, but recently I feel you’ve been adding a few newer ones to your list, and I haven’t prioritized the time to look into those additions to the portfolio family. 🙂
Thanks for sharing as often as you do! You continue to add a lot of value to the site.
Haha! Understood Canuckski. There are simply too many companies to follow, and its hard for any investor to keep up with all the different mining stocks in this sector. I just wanted to respond to your question about which companies I’m acquiring, and figured just sharing the daily recaps from this week may provide a few possible ideas to check into.
I’m happy to share any companies in any sector or subsector in my portfolio if you want to hone in on a specific area, or also interested to discuss any companies you feel may be worth taking a look into. It is helpful when other investors here highlight stocks they are looking into, investing in, or conversely warning about potential red flags they see and why they may avoid a particular company. That is the true value of a good investing forum, so any investable ideas are always appreciated.
My investing style is more as an active trader in a larger portfolio, where positions are bought in tranches on the way in, and then scaled out to exit in a similar fashion. Some other investors prefer only picking a few key stocks or ETFs to enter in more concentrated position sizes, and then trade around those repeatedly. Still others may have a medium-sized portfolio and just buy for longer term holding as more passive value investors. Some folks buy all in position, and sell in one position, while others scale in and out in multiple tranches. Certain resource investors only pick one commodity like Gold, or Uranium, or Oil, while others invest across multiple sectors. Some types of investors only like the large caps, some only buy producers, or development stage assets, or some just buy an evolving basket of grass-roots explorers.
Every system works and has it’s own strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with it. Everyone must find the investing style that best suits them as an individual, with their own unique risk tolerance levels, with their own expectations on returns, with their allotted time to invest in managing their portfolios, doing research, etc…
Thanks for the kind words Canuckski, and I feel you add a lot of the value to the site as well, and appreciate your insights and perspectives.
I haven’t checked to see the latest figures on sentiment, but I think it might be a bit of multi-purchase positioning when we see the drop hit the floor and begin to reverse. Between your thoughts of a more elastic bounce upward vs Doc’s six months or so of time to position, I’ll have to evaluate how to unload my remaining powder.
Am doing this in tandem with metal purchases as well.
As always, keep us posted Glen. Much appreciated!
I believe Canuck,
There is not much to ponder here but just to know me and Matt and ex seem to be on the same side as there should not be any more down side here! I believe the elastic is ready to explode… there can’t be a trade to demolish one side as history and cycles always indicate this. My pattern is telling me we are extremely close to the turn! Matthews approach is telling you we should have turned already. The overall consensus is an explosion up very soon.. if docs scenario works out, it is Armageddon lol.
I appreciate your candor Glen. Also it’s good to see that most of us are on the same page.
I didn’t think we were going lower, but we did. As I said earlier, no big deal for me. As a note, I’m more in Matt’s camp of the turn is occurring already.
I’m no where near as active a trader as Ex or Matt.
I’ll be watching the market and keeping keen eyes on the comments here to know when things are green lit in terms of the turn.’
If they blow like you say, then it prob won’t hurt if I’m a day or two late to the party with a chunk of my last tranche of funds.
Make mucho sense cancuk..
Cheers all the best
Gold Price Crash: Where Precious Metals & Mining Stocks Are Going Next – Steve Penny
ILoveProsperity w/ Jake Ducey – Feb 26, 2021 – Guest: Steve Penny @SilverChartist
#TechnicalAnalysis #Chart #InterestRates #Gold #Silver $GDX #Uranium $URNM
Ira Epstein’s Metals Video (02/26/2021)
#Technical Analysis #Chart #Gold #Silver #Copper #Platinum
Robert Friedland – Gold’s High Was Optical: Inflation Glimpses Are Deeply Concerning Warns Billionaire
Stansberry Research – Feb 26, 2021
When you figure out which way the wind is blowing and you get on the right side of it, you have a good long-term trend, says Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines and considered one of the greatest mining giants of his generation. “It’s like being long the bond market, if interest rates rise, the bond market gets killed,” he tells Daniela Cambone in a rare and exclusive interview.
“The economic situation is hopeless but not serious.” He explains the profound issues regarding how the Fed will wean money printing— “but don’t get too obsessed over it,” he advises. Friedland also weighs in on the topic of investing: “Gold is at an optical high and silver is only halfway there, while platinum has been very cheap.”
As we’ve been saying here in the KER comments — Platinum is cheap, relative to where it normally is valued in relation to both Palladium and Gold.
> Platinum closed at $1192.80 on Friday.
Speaking of Palladium…. John F. had some good comments this week here on the KER.
Here Are Some Copper and Palladium Stocks That John Likes
KE Report – 02/23/2021
“John Feneck, Portfolio Manager and Consultant at Feneck Consulting joins me for a look into his portfolio that is diversified outside of the precious metals. While gold has been correcting for 7 months and silver has been stuck in a range there are other commodities that have been breaking out during this time. We focus on copper and a energy stocks that John likes.”
Trading Gold & Gold Stocks in 2021 with Sector Expert John Feneck
MiningStockEducation – Feb 25, 2021
4:53 Profiting from a boom or recession
6:20 Gold and gold investor sentiment
10:10 Smaller cap gold stocks
15:12 Energy sector and stocks
17:47 Feneck Consulting info
Couple of other Pros……….says…..PLATINUM IS CHEAP…….
over at Stansberry
I am in the process of changing my focus ….. 🙂
OOTB – Are you stacking Platinum bars instead of Gold bars then? 😉
I’ve been very bullish on Platinum and Palladium for the last year or two, but invested via the mining stocks. Many of the PGM/Nickel plays have done quite well over the last year, with many up off their mic-March sector lows by 50%-700%.
My last purchase…….was platinum……
Platinum, is a lot harder to purchase than gold…..which tells me something…..
Nicely done OOTB. Keep stacking!!
Bonds and gold remain highly correlated safe haven assets. As such, the two will always underperform when they become massively overbought just as the whole investing landscape goes risk-on. It’s that simple. The rising rates of the last 6 months are a byproduct of correcting bond prices. They are a sideshow. The huge move in gold had already priced-in a lot dollar weakness and negative yields and had become very technically ripe for a correction. It earned it. Today, the correction is just about over and I’d guess there’s another sharp dip Monday morning followed by a strong reversal the same day. The action in the miners yesterday strongly suggested that the turn is near and was backed-up by the strong turn in the bond market.
After the perfect hit of fork support earlier in the week, TLT took off and erased the oversold RSI reading in the process by the time the week closed (notice the empty circle on the RSI. It wasn’t empty when I drew it.)…
Btw, notice that TLT took out its March 18 spike low before reversing and did so on 17% greater volume.
Pring’s Inflation Index peaked 5 months after gold (which makes perfect sense).
Here’s the above daily chart with gold added to show correlation:
At the crash lows in March, TIPS made its absolute low a couple days ahead of gold but their closing lows happened on the same day. It could easily be virtually the same this time with TIPS making absolute and closing lows on Thursday while gold’s closing was probably Friday even if it makes a lower absolute low on Monday.
The US 10 year yield dropped 10 basis points on Friday taking its RSI from 86 to to just under 70, a sell signal to some momentum traders.
The Fed speaks this coming week and it should be an interesting conversation. They are definitely in a quandary and have seen a bond market routing due to their own liquidity injection in the market. It appears all assets are being impacted by the extreme speculation in the many markets. Both bond and conventional at risk markets have suffered some damage and it appears copper and other commodities are about to peak and move lower for some time. It would be madness if the Fed were to intervene even on a larger scale at this time to reverse certain markets. I don’t think they will for some time yet. The markets need more pain before they do intervene. We saw the bond market reverse on Friday on oversold levels however we have not seen enough carnage in the correlative stock market. The stock market has farther to fall and with it the bond market. If the Fed intervenes this early, rampant speculation will only worsen and I believe they don’t want that to happen at this juncture yet. This has been a nothing move and more pain needs to be applied.
My concern is for the grocer, the window cleaner, who have been trading stocks with their smart phones. When they lose their capital and they realize that showy affluence has only given them debt. They will never be able to retire on their riches. What will they do, will they trust the system. DT
DT, you’re correct. The most vulnerable will suffer more then those who lose a few thousand dollars that they won’t miss. Imagine another thing—the public pension funds that are already well under water that will see further massive losses to their portfolios. There are no longer any easy answers for the predicament that the U.S. and the rest of the world are in. The number of institutions and political interest groups that will come to the Fed and Washington DC with hat in hand for bailouts will be unimaginable.
DT – You left out the butcher, the baker, and the candlestick maker…. 🙂
Hi Doc – Yes, agreed that it is still a bit too soon for the FED to intervene, and I would not expect them do anything different at this week’s meeting, because, as mentioned, there isn’t enough pain in the general markets yet from the rising rates.
However, if the rates rose up from 1.5% to closer to 2%+ then they may be more inclined to act. It will be as a result of a market tantrum, where the FED’s hand is forced to start buying bonds to lower the rates. There is no way, with the massive amounts of government debt the US has (and is still creating), that they are going to let rates normalize back to the 4%-7% range again any time soon. That much is quite clear.
If rates keep rising, then there will be a tipping point, and the FED’s foot will once again go back on the gas peddle and accelerate their market liquidity by purchasing bonds to bring down the longer end of the curve, effectively instituting yield curve controls. This week is too soon, but in the next few months, it is quite likely.
Ex, I agree with your 2%+ level. All asset classes will run for the exits; fortunately the PM stocks on a % basis will not see the bloodbath the general markets will as they’ve already seen a decent sell off. By the way I plan on selling all my copper positions on Monday excepting WRN. I feel the CRB and commodities will also see a correction short term.
Good thoughts Doc. That makes sense to me that the PM stocks would hold up better than the general markets this time as the PM stocks are already pretty beaten down, while the general stock indexes are up at nosebleed levels.
As for the Copper stocks, I completely sold out of my Filo Mining (FIL) and Atico Mining (ATY) positions this last week, as well as trimming back my position size in (KDK) Kodiak, (WRN) Western Copper & Gold, and (GRDM) Grid Metals. I didn’t make any changes to my (GCX) Granite Creek Copper, (DCMC) Dore Copper, (TIG) Triumph Gold, or newly acquired (MIN) Excelsior Mining positions. I added a bit to (SMTS) Sierra Metals , but they are polymetallic with Copper/Silver/Zinc/Lead/Gold, and have assets up for sale that may attract a takeover offer. As for my Sombrero Resources (copper projects spun out from Auryn during merger with Eastmain), they haven’t listed officially yet.
Great charts and insight as usual! 100% buddy..
Your talking about to titans in her Matt and myself saying this shit is very close to the turn! Is docs and others scenario of a longer term correction possible? Absolutely! But why are me and Matt favouring a very close turn and upward explosion? Because this correction is very long and the money printed as Jerry #1 gate Keeper knows is, astronomical like never seen before..It’s going to catch everyone off guard the turn! It’s very very close I believ..
Glen, I added a couple more charts to the group above.
Gold fell to the same Fibonacci fan support that was thoroughly tested in March:
A quick spike down to about 1696 would be perfect.
Matthew that has to be the one!
It looks bang on hidden pivot point! I looked at all the figures and your chart is nailing that point. Thanks buddy..
To me and you we are super extremely close to this turn. It really could be anytime day now.
Just buy these lows..
Glen and Matt!
I am closing the gate…… LOL …..
Jerry you always put the icing on the cake!
Hold the gate a little longer Jerry! I’m coming through.
Can ….Come on…. 🙂
Hey Ex, are you the one who mentioned Damara Gold Corp. I was watching their trading pattern and it looks like it is under accumulation. DYDD! DT
Hi DT. Yes, I had mentioned Damara Gold a few time recently, and took out a small speculative stake in it for this years exploration program. I’ve had a few different folks who I respect private message me about it over at ceo.ca, and after taking a look it seemed worth taking a flyer on it.
The gate keeper is and always will be the most respected one of all! As he can see righteousness…. very few left in this world
You do your share of kind thoughts also…..appreciate . Just sharing, shows your kindness.
Rick Rule Retires: Sprott Announces 2020 Annual Results
@nasdaq on 26 Feb 2021
“Effective March 15, 2021, Rick Rule will retire from his roles as Senior Managing Director, Sprott Inc.; President & CEO, Sprott U.S. Holdings. Mr. Rule will continue to serve as a Director of Sprott and will play an ongoing role in the management of certain Sprott investment strategies.”
“After more than four decades of investing in the natural resource sector, more than 10 years of which have been spent as part of the Sprott organization, I’m looking forward to slowing down,” said Rick Rule. “I will remain a director of Sprott, as well as the Company’s largest shareholder.
Time Waits for No Man……. It is not always the money …..but the Time remaining… lol
Jerry, Time Waits for No Man, or Woman, it’s easy to get in trouble these days around your home if you don’t keep up with the times! LOL! DT
Dang….. Gender neutral……LOL…..
Very true OOTB. Time, health, family, fellowship, and a spiritual connection are much more important commodities than money. The money just allows for manifestation here on the Earthly plane…
Time is the great equalizer.
Hans Zimmer – Time (Live in Prague)
We are residents of an insignificant planet that travels around an ordinary star in a huge galaxy that is dwarfed by many millions of other galaxies, but there must be meaning to all this. DT
DT, a Zimmer of hope…
That TIME…..was great…. 🙂
Hans Zimmer is great. Does many movie soundtracks.
Of all the people I follow and listen to in the gold/resource market, I regard Rick Rule as one of the best. When he speaks, he speaks with exacting language that is unambiguous. Just like Lyn Alden and Peter Schiff.
It’s the old chicken before the egg quandary, what comes first “The money panic or the stock panic”. The CEO’s of America’s biggest Corporations can see how The Banks and The Federal Reserve have led the foolish public into this mess, their answer will be to declare an extra dividend for their shareholders and themselves before the crash. Isn’t life wonderful. DT
They better get that extra dividend declared soon because time is drawing nigh.
When the stock market crash comes the stockholders will be stunned but after the crash comes “The Terror”, as The Banks contact The Brokers and ask for more collateral due to forced liquidation. The Terror is when you see the price of stocks fall day after day as the broker’s accounts get straightened out. Isn’t life wonderful! LOL! DT
Things looking good @9:20 CST. When do the red candles hit: 2:00, 4:00 8:15 ?? Let’s hope they can’t find their computer.
Stock market fans should be prepared to take defensive action this week. QQQ dropped 5.1% last week on the biggest volume since March and now has a new weekly MACD sell signal. I think SPY will follow with its own weekly MACD sell signal this week as it did in Q4 2018. Back then, QQQ led SPY by one week and the general stock market went on to fall 20%+/- in less than 3 months.
Thanks for the info on the stock market, Matthew.
You’re welcome, Pete.
Gold action overnight picture perfect and following my pattern.
We got exactly what I called for a suckers rally and this indeed “May be” the last one before the final turn. All we are doing is pushing my last weeks scenario over to this week as discussed it should go something like suckers rally today, tonight crash, Wednesday crash, Thursday crash hard and Friday final low with powerful green reversal candle.
I could not be more happier then having Gary savage switch his thoughts in his latest video and now call for a low as early as this week or next. It’s been exactly what I’ve been telling you all that the low “ could “ possibly be now due to the aggressiveness of this bloodbath phase of which we want to see this week hard red candles down with massive reversal.
Best of luck
Glen, if you are going to get your crashes, I bet they will have to happen in a week or two from now, not this week. We will find out soon.
Matthew Whatever happens I think we put the bottom in very soon this week or next.. I’m still leaning towards high sixteen hundreds as discussed..
I sincerely hope the high 1600s will be the bottom and that we get, as you say, an elastic shot up.
I am going with the new gold miner………Hopium…… 🙂
Lol I’m all in on Hopium and goldium 😀🤞
Don’t forget unobtainium. Every portfolio needs some by definition. 😉
Hopium is in deeply oversold territory
I hold all those and am adding on dips…
I think breaking 1700 would cause a real “dip”, a “look out below” kinda dip.
I just hope there would be some liquidity.
I might agree if it happened months ago but I bet it will kick off a sharp short-covering rally instead.
Interesting read on silver need for solar by Netherland
Good news: Rambus sold all his gold stocks in Jan. but started buying them back last week.
They should bring back the “uptick” rule to at least humor us during algo attacks.
Everyone here already knows this….. 🙂
I feel like Richard Russell………in a twilight zone…… lol 🙂
No wonder Rick Rule is retiring…….last pony show, viewing from a rocking horse on his front porch….with Eric…… Rock On Man…. LOL 🙂
RR probably wants to be a player in the ultimate PM market like Sprott. They both have a bank…they want to play rather than watch.
Thanks, Cory. This plunge gave me another chance to buy more NFGFF, LIOMF,, ESKYF, and IRVRF.