Weekend Show – Sat 31 Jul, 2021

Markets and Metals – Royalty Company Analysis and Understanding The Inflation Trade

Full Weekend Show

This Weekend’s Show is for the active investor. We focus on investing in royalty companies and the broad markets. With slow markets these are the best times to ensure you are invested in the right stocks and sectors to grow your portfolio.

Please keep in touch by emailing us at Fleck@kereport.com or Shad@kereport.com.

  • Segment 1 and 2 – Featuring Adrian Day and investing in royalty companies. This is an extended segment where we dive into what Adrian looks for in these companies and what actually helps royalty companies grow.
  • Segment 3 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager, shares his strategies for trading the slower summer markets. We focus on the inflation trade and the sectors he is playing on the long side.
  • Segment 4 – Replaying the update from Eloro Resources with Quinton Hennigh from Thursday. Eloro released drill results from the Iska Iska Project that the market liked. We dive into these results.

Exclusive Company Interviews This Week


Adrian Day
Dana Lyons
Eloro Resources – Quinton Hennigh


Comments:
  1. On July 31, 2021 at 6:07 am,
    Thomas says:

    Cory and Shad, many thanks for the Sean Brodrick interview this week

    I really enjoyed it, especially the lithium part. Shad even discussed DLE with him

    Also liked the royalty discussion with Adrian Day this weekend

    • On July 31, 2021 at 7:21 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Thomas, and I’m glad you checked out that Sean Brodrick interview from earlier in the week, as we were thinking of our comments from last weekend when came up with the rough idea of what we asked Sean to cover from his prolific writings and experience. Yes, I brought up the DLE since you had mentioned it and it was getting more coverage in the press lately, and really appreciate your input and like we appreciate the input from all the folks here on the KER blog, and folks that email us. Keep the great ideas exchange coming, as it makes us all better informed.

      Yes, Adrian Day is a wealth of information and we figured he had a great handle on the Royalty space and that would be an insightful topic to take a deep dive into. Ever upward!

      • On July 31, 2021 at 9:50 am,
        Excelsior says:

        P.S. – Speaking of Sean B., here is his latest piece out on his due diligence on Heliostar Metals. It’s a solid gold & silver explorer that we’ve had on the show regularly, and it is also insightful to get Sean’s perspective on things.

        _______________________________________________________________________________

        Hunting for Treasure in Alaska

        by Sean Brodrick | July 31, 2021

        https://wealth-wave.com/wealth-wave/hunting-treasure-alaska/

      • On July 31, 2021 at 10:32 am,
        Thomas says:

        Sean said that some of the lithium stocks are overpriced now. But it still is a megatrend. Would be interesting to know which ones are overpriced in his opinion, LAC? ORE? SLL? VUL?

        His focus is on near term production plays. DLE doesn’t fit for him. Why DLE companies reached billion dollar valuations than (SLL, VUL)?

        He was also sceptical on US plays, because of local community opposition. That would take out all Clayton valley play’s (LAC is a good example for local opposition)?

        • On July 31, 2021 at 1:30 pm,
          Excelsior says:

          Thomas – Thanks, as those are some good questions for follow with Sean and we can probe a bit deeper.

          Just my 2 cents as an investor in this sector for over a decade, and with a handful of positions in place…. Yes, many of the Lithium stocks PLS.AX, GXY.AX, NLC, SSL, ALB, SQM, LAC, ORE, VUL, FL, CYP, etc… have had big moves higher and are more fairly valued in the short-term, maybe in need of a small corrective move, similar to the Uranium stocks in that sense. However, longer term the megatrend Sean discussed is still well intact, and that was the larger point. So short-term fair to overpriced, but longer term much further to run.

          The DLE plays are not in production right now and still have more work to do to prove they can make the projects work economically after spending large sums of money.

          Yes, in the US there are about a dozen + companies going for lithium exploration and development around the Clayton Valley area. Of any of them LAC is the most advanced, they just won the court ruling over the local opposition, which there is any time a mine goes into development, and it is the MOST likely to succeed, as they still have their massive Cauchari-Olaroz brine project in Argentina that is the true flagship.

          I’m skeptical of some of the other US based Lithium plays in the Clayton Valley as well but 2 or 3 will likely make it into production.

          • On July 31, 2021 at 1:38 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            As for Lithium Americas, it has been one of the true success stories in the Lithium sector over the last 4-5 years, and I’ve been discussing it on here as a shareholder since 2016.

            I said back then they’d go the distance, and barring any more funny business, they are ready to advance towards production at both their projects. It has been a fantastic journey trading it along with other winners that made it into production (although not without a few challenges along the way) like Orocobre, Galaxy Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources & Neometals (that sold their stake to Ganfeng to focus on downstream processing), and even Bacanora is moving along. Ltihium Americas has taken a bit longer but it is moving right along.

            Here is that presser out on LAC getting the green light to advance.
            __________________________________________________________________________

            U.S. judge rules Lithium Americas may excavate Nevada mine site

            Reuters – By Ernest Scheyder 7/24/2021

            https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-judge-rules-lithium-americas-may-excavate-nevada-mine-site/ar-AAMwcb1?ocid=uxbndlbing

          • On July 31, 2021 at 2:05 pm,
            BDC says:
  2. On July 31, 2021 at 6:27 am,
    Thomas says:
    • On July 31, 2021 at 7:16 am,
      David says:

      Great Bear Royalty trades already.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 7:17 am,
        David says:

        See below

    • On July 31, 2021 at 7:25 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Agreed Thomas. The BHP takeover of Noront was the big takeover news of the week, and I was a little surprised it wasn’t discussed more on most of the resource stocks, as BHP is definitely one of the big boy Majors taking over a Junior, which is something folks said they wanted to see more of, and it was another all cash deal (more common in the base metals takeovers).

      I had posted this on Tuesday on the Vizsla Silver blog but will repost it here since you mentioned this acquisition and it’s a good time to recap the last week.

      ___________________________________________________________________________

      Mining giant BHP offers to buy Canada’s Noront Resources for $258 million

      July 27, 2021 – Reuters – Reporting by Arunima Kumar

      “BHP Group (BHP.AX) has made a C$325 million ($258.45 million) approach for Noront Resources (NOT.V), rivaling an offer from Australian mining billionaire Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo Metals for the Canadian nickel-copper miner.”

      “The scramble for Noront underscores the race to secure supplies of battery metals among miners ahead of an expected surge in demand due to the rise of electric vehicles.”

      “BHP’s offer also comes after the mining giant moved its exploration headquarters to Canada and said it would almost double exploration spending for base metals within five years.”

      https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mining-giant-bhp-offers-buy-canadas-noront-resources-258-mln-2021-07-27/

      • On July 31, 2021 at 7:43 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Also of note in the Nickel/PGM space this week was the takeover or earn-in that didn’t happen, where Sibanye decided they were not interested in building a Nickel/PGM mine in Canada, and were staying focused on their Stillwater complex in Montana, and their Gold and PGM mines in Africa for the moment.

        This gives Generation Mining the majority control of the project now though, which they are fine with, and they have a team that has taken mines into production in the past and experience raising capital and doing streaming/royalty deals in past experience, so they are going to take their Marathon project on their own.

        ______________________________________________________________________________

        Generation Mining maintains operatorship and majority control of Marathon Project as Sibanye-Stillwater confirms it will not exercise ownership increase right

        21 Jul 2021

        As a result, Gen Mining will retain effective operatorship of the Marathon Project and intends to advance the project expeditiously on the remaining key undertakings to bring the project into production, including the environmental assessment and permitting, final negotiations with First Nations, detailed engineering, and project financing. The Company intends to provide updates on these items in the coming weeks. In the coming months, Gen Mining will continue to advance the project financing alternatives (including potential non-dilutive funding options). The Company continues to be well financed to progress the Marathon Project with approximately $12 million cash on hand.

        “We are thrilled to have clarity on this key issue, which removes a perceived encumbrance on the Marathon Project,” states Jamie Levy, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gen Mining. “Sibanye-Stillwater has been an excellent partner. We look forward to advancing Marathon to production and I think our shareholders will ultimately benefit from this decision. This project’s time has come to be developed and being a Canadian-based company looking to produce critical minerals and green metals is a very exciting place for all of our stakeholders.”

        https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/generation-mining-maintains-operatorship-and-majority

        • On July 31, 2021 at 7:45 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Cory & I had chatted with the guys at Generation Mining back in mid June, and they were agnostic to what Sibanye decided to do (51% earn-in, all out takeover, or give them back majority control of the project). If folks missed it here was that interview.

          ______________________________________________________________________________

          AN EXCLUSIVE COMPANY INTRODUCTION TO GENERATION MINING

          #KorelinEconomicsReport – June 15, 20221

          Kerry Knoll, Executive Chairman and Director of Generation Mining (TSX.V:GENM – OTCQB:GENMF) joins us to introduce the Company’s palladium-platinum-copper-gold Marathon Project in Northwestern Ontario. We start by reviewing the economics highlighted in the Feasibility Study released on March 4th. We also unpack the options available to secure the capex needed, as the Company moves towards a construction decision. Next we discuss the potential paths forward, based on how Sibanye decides to proceed with its option to back into a 51% stake in the project over the next 5 weeks. Lastly Kerry outlines how things are progressing with the 8,000 meters of drilling aimed to expand the resources, and the goals of this exploration program.

          http://www.kereport.com/2021/06/15/an-exclusive-company-introduction-to-generation-mining/

          • On July 31, 2021 at 7:47 am,
            Excelsior says:

            This last week the team at Generation Mining put out an update presentation on their plan moving forward to finance, construct, and produce from polymetallic deposit full of Battery Metals at Marathon.

            _________________________________________________________________________________

            (GENM) (GENMF) Generation Mining: Building the Marathon Palladium – Copper Mine: The Path Forward

            https://webinars.6ix.com/6ix/GENM-Summit?bmid=fb23f6664e18

        • On July 31, 2021 at 7:51 am,
          Excelsior says:

          One personal speculation I have, is that besides Sibanye not really wanting to build a Nickel/PGM mine in Canada, that they also have their sites more focused on Group Ten Metals, their neighbors at the mineral rich Stillwater complex in Montana, where they already have mines/processing facilities/smelters on site. It would be far easier for Sibanye to takeover Group Ten Metals and bolt them on to their existing operations, so I have a hunch that they’ll be watching their on-going drill program with keen interest.

          • On July 31, 2021 at 7:54 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Synchronistically, Cory & I spoke with Mike from Group Ten Metals earlier this week about the exploration work they are doing at their Stillwater West project this exploration season. Here is that show for anyone that missed it earlier in the week.

            _________________________________________________________________________

            #KorelinEconomicsReport – July 29, 2021

            Michael Rowley, President and CEO of Group Ten Metals (TSX.V: PGE – OTCQB: PGEZF) joins us for an update on the ongoing exploration at the Company’s flagship Stillwater West PGE-Ni-Cu-Co + Au project in Montana. This 10,000 meter step-out drill program will be focused primarily on 3 of the most advanced targets – Chrome Mountain, Camp, and HGR/Iron Mountain Target areas.

            http://www.kereport.com/2021/07/29/group-ten-metals-updates-on-the-exploration-program-at-the-stillwater-west-property-and-the-non-core-assets/

        • On July 31, 2021 at 3:02 pm,
          Dick Tracy says:

          It appears that Gen Mining insiders like what is happening with their company in regards to Sibanye pull out. https://www.canadianinsider.com/company?ticker=GENM

          • On August 1, 2021 at 9:20 am,
            Excelsior says:

            Yep, the stock sold off hard when the news hot that Sibanye was not going to move forward with their option for 51%, or the other option people speculated on that Sibanye may just take over Generation mining.

            However, in talking with with Kerry & Jamie a month ago, and watching their video interviews lately, they seem more than happy to take the project forward on their own, and feel it will be the biggest value creation for investors.

    • On July 31, 2021 at 7:56 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Looking back on it, there really was a LOT of news with the Nickel / Platinum / Palladium companies this last week.

  3. On July 31, 2021 at 7:13 am,
    David says:

    Great show again. I am down to one Royalty company and it is a little different than those discussed and that is Great Bear Royalty. It was spun out during Great Bear’s on-going exploration efforts in recognition of the potential they were recognizing. It has nothing to earn as they are still exploring, but the long term potential seems very real when trying to imagine the long term size and grade possible from Great Bear. The stock holders will hold the Royalty if and when Great Bear is bought or even if it decides to go to production, which is probably unlikely.

    • On July 31, 2021 at 7:35 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks David, and great comments on the Great Bear royalty. They were very wise to have spun that out earlier in their exploration success when they realized that they may be onto a world-class district scale deposit. The more they expand the size of their deposit and the more the world wakes up to what they have their hands on, the more likely one of the majors will move in to take that property off their hands and the royalty will be a second prize and way to play it.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 8:03 am,
        Excelsior says:

        As for the Royalty space, I still have the same one’s I’ve been building positions in the last 2-3 years in the Precious Metals: Sandstorm Gold, Maverix Metals, Metalla Royalty, Nomad Royalty, Elemental Royalties, Vox Royalties, Golden Valley Mines, Sailfish Royalty.

        I also have started positions in 3 newer Battery Metals / Clean Energy Royalty companies: Nova Royalty, Electric Royalties, and Altius Renewable Royalties.

        That takes me up to 11 Royalty companies. I had a 12th with Ely Gold, but sold them on the recent news that Gold Royalty Corp was acquiring them.

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:05 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Here was that news out from last month on Ely Gold merging with Gold Royalty Corp.

          Gold Royalty and Ely Gold to Combine to Create a Leading Growth and Americas-focused Precious Metals Royalty Company

          21 Jun 2021

          https://ceo.ca/@newswire/gold-royalty-and-ely-gold-to-combine-to-create-a-leading

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:16 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Cory & I have actually been busy beavers the last few weeks and have talked with a number of royalty companies and posted a number of interviews lately. Here are a few for folks that are interested in digging a deeper well with some Royalty companies.

          ____________________________________________________________________________

          #KorelinEconomicsReport – July 12, 2021

          Ryan McIntyre, President of Maverix Metals (TSX:MMX – NYSE:MMX) join us to first recap the June 29th news release highlighting the acquisition of 6 royalties from Pan American Silver. We focus on a couple key royalties in the portfolio that are at a more advanced stage or in an area where a lot of work is being done. These royalty assets include the Recuperada Property, which is in operations and the Hernandez Property which is owned by first Majestic and surrounds SilverCrest’s Las Chispas Property. We then recap the July 6th news release which provides an update on 4 royalty assets in the Maverix portfolio of 121 precious metals royalties.

          http://www.kereport.com/2021/07/12/maverix-metals-key-asset-updates-and-a-look-into-the-royalty-portfolio-acquired-from-pan-american-silver/

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:18 am,
          Excelsior says:

          #KorelinEconomicsReport – July 27, 2021

          Brett Heath, President and CEO of Metalla Royalty and Streaming (TSX.V:MTA – NYSE:MTA) joins us to recap the recent shareholder update he sent out to investors last week. We start off with the recent trading activity and oversold share price technical setup in the stock, along with some thoughts on the oversold nature of the PM sector in general. Next we recap the Company’s six royalty acquisitions so far this year, and also take a deeper dive into a key royalty held on the Wasamac property being further explored and developed by Yamana Gold. We wrap up with some general comments from Brett on some of the avenues for organic growth and shareholder value creation by utilizing the strengths of the royalty business model.

          http://www.kereport.com/2021/07/27/metalla-royalty-streaming-a-shareholder-update-on-a-wide-range-of-topics/

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:19 am,
          Excelsior says:

          #KorelinEconomicsReport – July 28, 2021

          Kyle Floyd, CEO of VOX Royalty Corp (TSX.V:VOX – US:VOXCF) joins us to review the Company’s record Q2 revenue, and production growth inside the Company’s portfolio of royalties. We highlight the trend of quarter over quarter operational growth over the last year, and had Kyle unpack the strategy in picking accretive transactions. We wrap up by touching on a few key milestones reached by Vox’s royalty operation partners; such as the recent commissioning of the Segilola Mine by Thor Explorations, and the doubling of milling capacity and increased production at the Hidden Secret deposit and Dry Creek royalty on the Higginsville gold project operated by Karora Resources.

          http://www.kereport.com/2021/07/28/vox-royalty-record-q2-revenue-and-key-asset-updates/

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:24 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Cory also hosted a KER webinar with Elemental Royalties this last week on July 29th that was well-attended and engaging, and that replay should be up some time next week.

          We also recorded a good update with Nomad Royalty yesterday that should post on Monday, so stay tuned…

        • On August 1, 2021 at 11:44 am,
          nawanda says:

          EX…if you had to rank these Royalties from highest conviction to lowest conviction, how would they go?
          Maverix Metals, Metalla Royalty, Nomad Royalty, Elemental Royalties, Vox Royalties, Golden Valley Mines, Sailfish Royalty.

          • On August 2, 2021 at 3:23 am,
            Excelsior says:

            The order you listed in them in matches my conviction in their baskets of royalty assets.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 8:29 am,
        Excelsior says:

        Here is a call back to an even we held earlier in the year in May from the first KER Royalty Roundtable, that had many great points on some of the benefits of the royalty business model.

        ___________________________________________________________________________

        ROYALTY ROUNDTABLE – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW WHEN INVESTING IN ROYALTY COMPANIES

        #KorelinEconomicsReport – May 1st, 2021 #Panel Discussion

        This is the recording of the Royalty Roundtable webinar I hosted on Wednesday April 28th. I was joined by some of the best mid-tier royalty companies to help explain the royalty model and what to consider when investing in the royalty companies.

        Guests include:

        Brett Heath, President and CEO of Metalla Royalties and Streaming (TSX.V:MTA – NYSE:MTA)
        Vincent Metcalf, CEO of Nomad Royalty (TSX:NSR – OTCQX:NSRXF)
        Dan O’Flaherty, CEO of Maverix Metals (TSX:MMX – NYSE:MMX)
        Fredrick Bell, President and CEO of Elemental Royalties (TSX.V:ELE – OTCQX:ELEMF)
        Alex Tsukernick, President and CEO of Nova Royalty Corp. (TSX.V:NOVR)

        http://www.kereport.com/2021/05/01/hour-2-royalty-roundtable-what-you-need-to-know-when-investing-in-royalty-companies/

  4. On July 31, 2021 at 8:04 am,
    bonzo says:

    Ex, Matthew, and Doc, royalties been very good to Bonzo who owns FNV@26, RGLD@27, SAND@3, WPM under 10, and OR@8. Is it time to sell these and put the money into NULGF, ESKYF, NSRPF, FOXXF, DOLLF, WRMCF, IRVRF, WHGOF, GPTRF,BBBXF, ELRRF, AUCUF, SIOCF, TLRS, LRTNF, BBBXF, BYAGF, and STKXF?

    • On July 31, 2021 at 8:12 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Hi Bonzo – That is a solid list of Royalty companies in your stable for sure. As for whether you should sell them and rotate into the individual companies is completely your call, and the reasons for holding them are different for each investor.

      Personally, the royalty companies I hold in my portfolio are for a different more conservative and slow and steady gaining aspect, compared to all the individual companies held for more torque in the risk/reward setup. Royalty companies are more diversified across many assets, without the single company risk, and they don’t have to spend all the money on drilling/development/construction/production or take all the same kinds of risks that their partner companies do, and run with a much more streamlined team and business strategy. I like them for the long game in value creation and the royalty model is superior business model to the miners in many aspects.

      Having said that, the individual mining stocks, especially the Juniors, have the potential to grow (or crash like we’ve seen lately) much more than the royalty companies, so in a raging bull market the mining stocks can vastly outperform the royalty companies. This is why I like having a blended and balanced portfolio that contains royalty companies, growth-oriented mid-tier producers, smaller growth-oriented producers, quality developers, and of course the highly volatile but highly explosive explorers. They each fill a different niche’ and get market love at different times in the metals cycle.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 8:33 am,
        RICHARD/DOC says:

        I like royalties even more at this time since with the downturn in the PM stocks (which I think will continue for some period of time) some of the strong royalty companies (e.q. Sandstorm) with lots of cash will go hunting to add to their portfolios PM companies with a lot of prospects but short on capital. Royalty companies should be salivating due to the current pull back and bear market in the PM space.

        • On July 31, 2021 at 8:38 am,
          Excelsior says:

          +1 Doc. Agreed. I also believe, as stated in the interview with Adrian up above, that some of the royalty companies may try to pick off some of the Prospect Generators that hold royalties, and we’ve already seen a few of those deals between Royalty Companies and Prospect Generators in the recent past.

          To your point Doc, the Royalty and Streaming companies are cashed up, so some of them will be lending out money to miners for stream on their non-core metals production, or a Net Smelter Royalty on their development stage projects to help with the capex financing to get them into production.

          I mentioned the Generation Mining situation up above, where with Sibanye throttling back, that they will likely do a stream or royalty to help with some of the capex to build their Marathon project into a mine. We’ll likely see a lot of those kinds of deals that create new royalties over the next 2 years.

        • On August 1, 2021 at 11:42 am,
          nawanda says:

          Doc: bottom line question, and not sure if you’ve ever stated this? What’s your “conservative” timeframe on Gold getting to $3K and Silver $60? Would June/July 2023, 24 months from now, be too soon?

          • On August 1, 2021 at 6:11 pm,
            Ozibatla says:

            Whilst Im not Doc, Ill give a prediction on your question nawanda: No silver will not reach $60 by mid 2023. Unlikely that gold will reach $3k either. Happy to be wrong mind you.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 8:33 am,
        Excelsior says:

        I had actually gone on a rant last in late April on a weekend blog and it may be worth reposting that here, talking about the strengths and risks of the royalty model.

        ____________________________________

        Exploring the Strengths & Weaknesses To Investing In Royalty & Streaming Companies

        > Strengths:

        – Streams allow for a purchase of commodity at a fixed price (providing leverage to rising metals prices)
        – Royalties are either Gross Revenue Royalties or Net Smelter Royalties and are essentially the cream off the top, without taking all the other mining/operational risks
        – Diversified basket of royalty & streaming assets (often dozens to hundreds of assets in a portfolio), so there is not a single or even 2-3 asset risk, like with individual miners
        – Diversified across multiple jurisdictions, reducing risks of being over concentrated in one jurisdiction (Ely Gold is an exception in that they are focused on just Nevada, but it’s a Tier 1 jurisdiction)
        – Partner companies assume the lion’s share of the risks to mining, employees, community relations, environmental, and operational and do all the capital raises and dilutive financings
        – As larger miners takeover smaller miners, this can lead to stronger operations partners and better investments into a project(s), at no extra cost to the royalty & streaming company
        – Small personnel in royalty & streaming companies compared to traditional mining companies, that in contrast have hundreds or even thousands of employees in comparison
        – Enterprise Value per employee is much higher than with individual miners, or in comparison to most industries for that matter
        – Price/Earnings (PE) ratio is much higher for royalty and streaming companies, with senior royalty companies in the 30-150 PE range, compared to individual miners with senior producers in the 10-30 PE range
        – Margins are not impacted as dramatically as individual miners in a falling metals price environment
        – Ability to grow a pipeline of incoming revenue incrementally, with leverage to resource upgrades from operational partners at minimized risks
        – More likely to pay a regular dividend to investors, as it is easier to predict incoming cash flows

        > Weaknesses:

        – Not as much leverage on a single asset revaluation, as there is with an individual miner, so there is less upside torque in a re-rating scenario. In a bull market, many individual miners will out-perform the more diversified royalty companies in a substantial way
        – Margins are not impacted as dramatically in a positive way on a percentage basis, as individual miners will experience in a rising metals price environment
        – Royalty and streaming companies are still exposed to risks from their operational partners if those producers, developers, or explorers encounter issues with their projects, which impact either the timelines, operational production metrics, environmental/permitting approvals or challenges, community relation challenges, or financial duress of a partner mining company
        – Risk of longer term mine life calculations not panning out as initially projected, so there is the risk of overpaying for a stream or royalty
        – Leaning too heavily on price to NAV calculations when acquiring assets (where the Net Asset Value may not pan out as projected)

    • On July 31, 2021 at 9:35 am,
      Matthew says:

      Bonzo, your instincts are well tuned. Yes, now IS the time to sell or trim the royalty plays and buy the juniors IF you want to accept the associated new risks. When the sector bottoms and goes “risk-on”, the juniors always blow away the royalty/streaming plays. I believe we are there. The question is: Will each of your picks perform as expected? My guess is yes but company-specific problems/disappointments are always possible, especially with the development plays. The pure explorers with great properties, assets in the ground and pending drill results are more likely to outperform the royalty and large cap plays like clockwork even without some big company-making news. And since most explorers won’t deliver earthshaking discoveries in any given cycle, MOST should be sold around an intermediate term top. That’s worth emphasizing. You MUST sell at least a significant amount of your juniors in the proximity of an intermediate top – you don’t have to get it perfect.
      Here’s Brixton priced in Franco, for example:
      https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V%3AFNV&p=W&yr=6&mn=1&dy=0&id=p23643167540&a=1001203968

      Notice that it routinely blows Franco (and Franco’s peers) away once the sector launches a new intermediate degree uptrend. In 2019, it almost quadrupled vs Franco and last year, it more than quadrupled vs Franco. In 2016, you can see that it went up 16x vs Franco and I believe the next move will be much greater than at least the last two. If it matches or exceeds 2016, I suspect that it will be a more gradual rise than ’16 unless there’s great news.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 9:56 am,
        Matthew says:

        Here’s the above chart from the opposite perspective. Franco priced in Brixton is probably at or very near a significant top. Following the last two such tops, it fell about 70% vs Brixton.
        https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FNV%3ABBB.V&p=W&yr=6&mn=1&dy=0&id=p26676532702&a=1001252204

        • On July 31, 2021 at 10:14 am,
          bonzo says:

          Thanks, Matthew. Those are interesting charts. My instincts are honed, but I doubt I will sell my royalties I have owned for many years as I would have to pay so much tax. But I have not bought any royalties for years, since OR got clobbered. Any new money will go to the small explorers where I have been going the last few years.

          • On July 31, 2021 at 10:42 am,
            Matthew says:

            I get it, Bonzo. I would just point out that big gains in the juniors would more than make up for your long term capital gains and the big drawdowns following intermediate tops are usually much greater than taxes.
            Either way, you’re going to win. They are all on new daily chart MACD buy signals and OR looks particularly ready to move up in a big way. It is even oversold versus FNV:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OR%3AFNV&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p24996701635

          • On July 31, 2021 at 10:49 am,
            Matthew says:

            For those who don’t realize how wrong the bearish guys were at the March low, take a look at the royalty stocks. When gold bottoms, the safest stuff turns first and makes great moves first. Big money can’t hide its actions from the charts and those actions mean more than anyone’s theories about manipulation. Here’s OR:
            https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=OR&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p89602576806

          • On July 31, 2021 at 1:40 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Matthew great charts and great points. Yes, the safer larger companies tend to turn first, and then the juniors play catch up and run a lot higher on a percentage basis and have the best returns in the heat of the bull market. From these depressed levels in the Juniors, they should have quite a run higher indeed, and smoke the seniors overall.

        • On July 31, 2021 at 11:57 am,
          larry says:

          Hi Matthew..Next week I will post a few charts …..I have incorporated the VWAP signal into my trading charts for intra-day signals…I will attempt to try and describe why I took a specific trade while incorporating VWAP in the decision tree…Thanx…Just a heads up for you and all else here, if interested……I really enjoy your charting method….I will slowly build out some of your tools on a separate T&S chart save as…..GLTA…things may get very volatile in the next few months/years..LMAO

  5. On July 31, 2021 at 8:32 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ex, with your busy and I do mean busy lifestyle and all the positions you hold in stocks and royalty companies, how do you find time to manage such a plethora of activity. You had been a banker, I know you are very computer savvy, do you have some sort of computer program that continually monitors your portfolio’s and sends alerts when stocks reach certain levels up or down.

    • On July 31, 2021 at 8:57 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Haha! Good points DT. I do struggle with keeping all the balls in the air, and balancing all the research with family time, personal time to recharge, time in nature, etc… We just had a good friend visit and then a week where my family came to visit and I was doing trades on mountain tops, by waterfalls, on trail hikes in the woods, and my favorite — doing trades on one of the many beaches, while drinking a cool adult beverage.

      So I guess the answer is multi-tasking paired with a lack of sleep. Haha! 🙂

      As for my approach, it is pretty basic really. I build watchlists of companies in each sector on spread sheets, and then color code them with the ones I own, with the ones I’d like buy next on any company swaps, and then the rest are not color coded by I may make notes on the margins when I print them off.

      Each day at the close of markets, I review my portfolio to see if there are any I believe had run so much or fallen so much that I want to sell them the next day. Conversely, I review my watchlists for any that look like they are entering a range where I want to acquire them. Of course, this is paired with any news that pops on the radar that is significant. So the following day I have a general plan of what I want to add, buy, trim, or sell.

      As for managing a portfolio with so many positions, I just filter my positions in a couple of ways each day and take a quick look (as I already have vetted all the companies and don’t need to constantly analyze their fundamental set up each day).

      – I sort the portfolio daily by “biggest gainers” and “biggest losers”. I’m mostly focused on any stock up or down double digits on a percentage basis. On a slow day, I’ll look at the higher single digit moves 7%, 8% 9%, but generally I only trade outsized moves of 15%+ If a stocks moves 20% or 30% or higher in a day, then I usually take action.

      – Every few days or at least once a week I sort all the companies by overall gain or loss in both descending and ascending order. I’m so active of a trader, that my cost basis is always changing in companies, and I cycle through the whole FIFO (First In First Out) position multiple times by buying/selling in tranches repeatedly. As a result I don’t have many longstanding cost basis in most stocks because I may have traded it dozens of times each year.

      – The other thing I do weekly or several times a week, is I sort the portfolio by weighting in Market Value to figure out, what are the biggest positions I hold in the portfolio and while I generally am focused on the top 20 positions, sometimes I invert it and focus on the bottom 20 positions to see why are they small, should I increase them, should I blow them out, etc… Any of the 40-50 companies in the middle are more set em’ and forget em’ until they move up or down the batting order where they come back into focus.

      – Lastly, I’ll sort the companies by Market Cap and ask, are these realistic? Are some undervalued? Are some getting a bit lofty? This may inspire me to pull up that company’s website and check in on them.

      That’s really all I do, so nothing too fancy, and pretty basic that anyone could do, and likely does do already.

      It actually takes much longer to write about it here than it does to just sort one’s portfolio in their trading account. (I should add that I edited my trading account to show the data I want to see and in the order I want to see it in on the columns. Some traders prefer to build their own spreadsheets to sort and that works just fine as well.)

      • On July 31, 2021 at 9:20 am,
        Excelsior says:

        One more quick point about finding the time for trading, that we discussed with Erik Wetterling and Jordan Roy Byrne this last week, there are a lot of things I spend 0:00 time on. This is just as important as where one invests their time.

        I spend zero time researching market conspiracies, manipulation, monetary collapse, etc… (which doesn’t make anyone any money even if there are some valid points raised). If there is nothing anyone can do about those things, then why dwell on them all day and every day. I trade the market prices we see each day, and roll with that setup.

        I also don’t camp out all day in company rooms over on stock forums beating a dead horse about a particular company. Since I don’t have all my eggs in one basket, I’m not obsessed with every single comment that comes in on a given company, because I’m not overly exposed to any one company in the incredibly volatile and risky resource sector. In contrast, over at ceo.ca, or stockhouse, or hotcopper, or stocktwits, I notice there are folks that spend all day in the same company room, debating each other, with the pumpers and bashers going at one another all day long on a stock that may not have put out any news in a month or two.

        What is the point of that? Nothing has changed and it is ALL speculation as to what will happen next, and a huge time waster. Sure, I may glance through a company room quickly to see if there is any breaking news or helpful feedback from other contributors (because some people do share good info), but then move on quicly, even if I have a good weighting to that company.

        There are some companies where people spend all day debating a company that they already hold, and it doesn’t do anything for them. I’d rather spend that same time quickly analyzing my portfolio, and after that looking into new companies. Cory and I do about 6-10, 30 minute calls with pundits or experts every day where we get good insights, learn about new companies (many that don’t make it on the show), or catch up and get updates with companies we follow. That is a much more valuable use of time, and that camping out with the same few stocks every single day and debating every theory that could be.

        One last thing, I severely limit my news intake on other areas as I find it too toxic. It is amazing how much time one gets back when they aren’t buried in social media posts, news updates pinging their phones, reading over others news that everyone is trying to cram down everyone’s throats. I’ll spend about 30 minutes a day jumping into the sewer of news updates on politics, world news, local news, sports, lifestyle, celebrity, travel, health, etc… but that’s it. Nothing wastes more time or has less of a healthy psychological effect then spending too much time in those cesspools. I also don’t have any of the social media accounts that so many spend so much time on. I’ve never had account with MySpace, Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Snapchat, TicTok, Telegram, Rumble, etc…. Overall a YUGE waste of time. I’ll go check out someone’s page for a particular post or topic, get in, and then get out. I am guilty of going down YouTube wormholes some evenings though. 🙂

        Where I do invest a lot of time is posting here on the KE Report, because I like this community, I like this site and have for over a decade, and I enjoy the rascals and characters we have here. I spend the most time on the weekend shows, mostly on Saturday mornings like this, and then again on Sunday nights.

        Wishing all the good folks here at the KER good trading, good health, and prosperity in life.

        • On July 31, 2021 at 9:21 am,
          Excelsior says:

          P.S. – I’ll shut up now and leave it at that. 😉

          • On July 31, 2021 at 10:10 am,
            Dick Tracy says:

            Hey Ex, that was a real rant, interesting thoughts, all of which I concur with. An interesting thought for you when you write your next book on gambling would be, “What happens to the mental processes of supposedly hard headed men and women when they are exposed to the most delirious fever of stock speculation which has been prevalent in The United States this last decade or since the end of The Second World War. You know America is one huge gambling casino. Sorry, I just couldn’t resist!

          • On July 31, 2021 at 1:43 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            Haha! Great idea DT. I’d love to write a book on speculation and gambling one day.

            I’m a huge fan of Craps and Roulette and that is probably what turbo charged my interest in mining stocks as I was already sold on Gold and Silver before finding the stocks and already was doing traditional investing, but then came the glorious casino of speculation. haha!

          • On July 31, 2021 at 1:45 pm,
            Excelsior says:

            It is also why I couldn’t resist the casino of cryptos, cannabis, meme stocks, and clean energy stocks. I’ve had some crazy volatile trades in all of them and luckily won more than I lost using a few techniques learned in surfing the rough waters of the junior miners. 😉

          • On August 1, 2021 at 12:55 am,
            DariusPL says:

            I completly agree on facebook and the others. (Successful) Trading and hiking – that should be on top of google search for “what’s the best in life” instead of Big Austrian 😉
            I’ll try it myself next year after 4th shot of Comirnaty and zeta wave

        • On August 1, 2021 at 2:18 pm,
          David says:

          Ex:
          Good personal info on your process. I am guilty of chasing the criminals too much like I think Jamie Dimon reads my posts and feels guilty and immediately begins crying. I should stop talking about that stuff as I rarely act on my thoughts. Wait a minute…I just did it again.

  6. On July 31, 2021 at 10:58 am,
    Matthew says:

    The XAU bottomed at fork support and then took off and gapped above Fibonacci fan resistance on Thursday.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78385075419&a=986055675

    • On July 31, 2021 at 12:17 pm,
      CaliJoe says:

      What are the odds these gaps as island reversal patterns? It looks very obvious in the case Barrick and GDX charts. If that holds true, we could see multi month rally in miners.

      Everyone is expecting for gap fills next week and gold going to retest $1760. From a contrarian perspective, this is a bullish looking backdrop.

      • On July 31, 2021 at 12:53 pm,
        Matthew says:

        I agree with you when it comes to the highest quality/least speculative items like your KL and AEM. Even if Monday begins with a drop in the metals and miners, I think those gaps will remain completely open. The rest will be mixed and most gaps will probably only be partially filled.
        In my book, partial fills are the best of both worlds because the gap gets addressed or “dealt with” while price action still proves very bullish demand.

      • On August 1, 2021 at 1:11 am,
        DariusPL says:

        Gary is expecting this retest but G/S ratio and TIP tell a different story – the latter backtested the break out and resumed upward. TIP often leads gold during those intermediate rallies and its recent strenght is encouraging

      • On August 1, 2021 at 5:13 am,
        DariusPL says:

        Looks like we are coping the handle from 08 – the same Fib retracement 38,2, the same false breakout of 200 DMA – so let’s hope it’s 21th Jan 09

  7. On July 31, 2021 at 11:01 am,
    Matthew says:

    IPT tested its 200 week MA last week and the week before and then took back broken fork support.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=4&mn=5&dy=0&id=p59357139294&a=676382921

    • On July 31, 2021 at 1:31 pm,
      chris says:

      Thank you! I did 2000 share starter position this past week & will buy more if we get a pull back.

  8. On July 31, 2021 at 1:06 pm,
    BDC says:

    Royalty companies included : https://tinyurl.com/46mterc6

  9. On July 31, 2021 at 2:06 pm,
    Dick Tracy says:

    As the old saying goes, The really wise man it appeared was he who bought stocks and held on. I believe that is what most speculators/investors do when in the markets. That is not typical of the people that come to this site they are the 5-10 percenters who are traders always in and out of the market. But if you hold a large portfolio of securities you are very much at risk of a horrendous downturn, that may not see buyers come back to the markets in any appreciable numbers for many years.

    This summer of 2021 prices in the conventional markets have kept soaring higher and higher. The lesson is plain, buyers and central bank pumping in the markets will not be shaken out by anything short of a major disaster. There is so much liquidity sloshing around but with interest rates so low corporations and banks can’t lend money out to borrowers to make money on the interest charged. All this money in the system must go into dangerous speculation to try and produce a profit for the owner/lender of any capital.

    All old markers by which the price of a common stock in the conventional markets could be measured has long since been passed. If inflation was serious 5 years ago, it is far more serious now. Remember the ancient principle of “The Higher They Go, The Harder They Fall”. Don’t get lulled into the thinking that if there is a crash it is a good time to buy back in. At some point and very soon this market will be tested and if you haven’t protected enough of your assets you could easily see hard times that don’t go away for a decade.

    I will be very much in cash when the end of September roles around, I just don’t like what I see, and there are always opportunities if you have the means, but October and late September are usually the time when a crash occurs, and this time it could really smart for those who are unaware.

    • On August 1, 2021 at 4:56 am,
      DariusPL says:

      True – if SM continue higher, at the end of september I will be more concerned about another volatility event than any upside PM will have then

    • On August 1, 2021 at 7:33 am,
      Thomas says:

      All true what you say – But what, if this goes on for another five years?

      You really want to be in cash? When will you buy back, if there comes no crash this year?
      Your cash will be only worse half of it in short time.

      • On August 1, 2021 at 10:00 am,
        Dick Tracy says:

        Hi Thomas, I won’t stay in cash for a long time, just 5 or 6 weeks from late September to the end of October.

  10. On August 1, 2021 at 7:05 am,
    Thomas says:

    Just listened to „SHAD AND DOC TALK STOCKS“

    I like the idea of bringing Ex deep fundamental knowledge together with Doc‘s deep technical knowledge for certain PM stocks

    Maybe I can make a proposal

    It would be great to have two slides with each stock that is discussed

    1. Key figures (market cap, ASIC, ounces/year, …)
    2. Technical Chart

    A regular review of some favorites would be great too

    • On August 1, 2021 at 10:40 am,
      Excelsior says:

      Thanks Thomas and good suggestions.

      Maybe we’ll include some charts from Doc or images from the companies down the road. As for which ones are favorites that varies on the individual, (and those companies we discussed were stocks many others have discussed over the years and that Dic and I own and trade personally). We’ll do more segments though and cycle through more companies as time goes by.

      • On August 1, 2021 at 10:53 am,
        Thomas says:

        If you keep Equinox as favorite, I am fine 🙂

        • On August 2, 2021 at 3:25 am,
          Excelsior says:

          Haha! Fair enough.

  11. On August 1, 2021 at 7:55 am,
    Dick Tracy says:

    Ten days ago I bought some Orea Mining Corp, on The TSX, SYL- OREA, market cap 22 million. OREA JV wins their lawsuit against The French Government on its 5 million Oz “MONTAGNE d’Or Gold Deposit. The Court of Appeal concluded that the arguments put forward by The French Government were without merit and that the JV submitted complete applications for the renewal of mining concessions. Montagne d’Or is a permitting stage open gold deposit. Nord Gold first earned a 50.01% interest in the project in September 2017 by spending US 30 million and completing a bankable feasibility study. Nordgold then acquired an additional 5% interest pursuant to a share purchase agreement. Orea Mining owns the other 44.9% interest. There are opportunities to increase the current Mineral Reserves and mine life within the open pit. This project is located in North West French Guiana.

  12. On August 1, 2021 at 8:47 am,
    bonzo says:

    Don’t miss today’s fantastic interview with Dr. Robert Malone on mercola.com

    • On August 1, 2021 at 3:25 pm,
      OOTB Jerry says:

      Nobody cares bonzo……….. jmo……. otherwise they would be commenting on the ORPHAN SECTION…. 🙂

    • On August 2, 2021 at 10:07 am,
      Matthew says:

      Someone who goes by “gccapital” on another site posted the following yesterday:

      Not sure if I posted this here before, but I will again and it may save someone’s life. Last Thanksgiving our family/ friends had an outbreak of Covid cases. 18 of us were treated with Ivermectin and zinc, and EVERY one of us the fever was gone in 12 hours and after the second dose on day 4 all symptoms resolved by day 6. This included an 80 year old also. One family member wasn’t treated for 2 weeks and was ready to go on a ventilator. His symptoms resolved in 6 days after onset of treatment also. This is a very treatable disease, contrary to what MSM wants you to believe.

      • On August 2, 2021 at 11:44 am,
        Big Al says:

        Thank you for posting this. It is interesting.

        • On August 2, 2021 at 12:33 pm,
          Matthew says:

          Hi Al, I hope you are doing ok.

          • On August 2, 2021 at 1:23 pm,
            Big Al says:

            Thank you Matthew, I am asking God to help me with my depression and my anger. I am happy to say that He definitely is doing that.

            Many thanks for your concern and positive wishes.

      • On August 2, 2021 at 5:43 pm,
        Ozibatla says:

        Interesting Matthew. Ive only recently heard of Ivermectin being used as an alternative treatment.

        • On August 2, 2021 at 5:45 pm,
          Ozibatla says:

          Hi Al. Life is a privilege but gee its also bloody hard and unfair. Hang tough mate.

  13. On August 1, 2021 at 1:08 pm,
    CaliJoe says:

    https://ibb.co/2k7TKGF
    https://ibb.co/m9qnpMZ
    https://ibb.co/FsM9bmc

    Bullish looking streamers charts. They are holding that golden cross strongly which I take is an indication rest of the miners will follow soon.

    • On August 1, 2021 at 5:54 pm,
      Terry Huebert says:

      Aussie mid tiers flying this Monday morning (SLR, RMS), pouring gold, finding more gold, improving efficiency, all done with cash on hand…no dilution, no borrowing.

  14. On August 1, 2021 at 11:32 pm,
    Terry Huebert says:

    Zijin(2899:HK) up 6% Monday mid afternoon.

  15. On August 2, 2021 at 3:23 am,
    irishtony says:

    ” SHOCKING ” Police BRUTALITY in BERLIN… These ” SCUM ” should be charged with ABH.
    https://www.rt.com/news/530843-berlin-lockdown-protests-scuffles-police/

    • On August 2, 2021 at 10:04 am,
      Matthew says:

      Yup, we are being destroyed by scum while tens of millions of geniuses like Blazesb cheer. When the criminally stupid outnumber everyone else, criminals rule.

      If people get the shot after watching this, they are beyond saving:
      https://videopress.com/v/p8R7ebPy

      • On August 2, 2021 at 11:45 am,
        Big Al says:

        Interesting point, Mathew,

        Thanks for bringing this to our attention.

      • On August 2, 2021 at 12:06 pm,
        Terry Huebert says:

        Police who are siding with corrupt leaders against their own people are sheeple.

        • On August 2, 2021 at 12:32 pm,
          Matthew says:

          That goes for all who make following orders their highest priority. Such humanoids exist is every profession.

  16. On August 2, 2021 at 1:02 pm,
    Matthew says:

    “Roughly 33% of Americans were either hesitant or outright hostile to the Iraq War while the vast majority fell for the establishment’s propaganda hook, line and sinker. Sound familiar?”

    Must read/watch:
    https://ghionjournal.com/vaccine-911-ade/

    • On August 2, 2021 at 1:17 pm,
      Big Al says:

      I agree with you Matthew. I personally was adamantly against it.

    • On August 2, 2021 at 1:32 pm,
      Terry Huebert says:

      Bush1 the evil SOB, got the whole thing going with that larger than life General Norman Schwarzkopf.

  17. On August 3, 2021 at 10:48 am,
    Matthew says:

    Celebrate White History Month…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jc_joggxTL0

    Jesse Lee Peterson nails a lot of facts.