The Shift In Sentiment Toward Defensive Investments, What Are The Key Drivers?

November 15, 2021

Ed Moya, Senior Market Analyst at ONADA joins us to recap the last two weeks of trading that has shifted sentiment more towards defensive assets. On the back of inflation data last week and the Fed meeting at the beginning of the month we have seen US market momentum slow and the USD, gold, and cryptos garner a bid. The question is, what do we all need to watch moving into next year.



    Nov 15, 2021 15:54 PM

    What’s the deal with diamonds, are there just too many of them or could the miners catch fire again? They are creeping back into the news with a huge diamond being found in Botswana and one in Arctic Canada.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:20 AM

    In overnight trading, the Cryptos are selling off 7-8%, Gold is up to $1875, and the US 10 year is at 1.6%.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:22 AM

    (FPX) (FPOCF) FPX Nickel Reports Van Target Drilling Results Confirming Significant Lateral Extension of Higher-Grade, Near-Surface Nickel Mineralization

    – 15 Nov 2021

    Nov 16, 2021 16:25 AM

    (SCZ) (SZSMF) Santacruz Update Report on Stock Halting

    – Nov 15, 2021

      Nov 16, 2021 16:12 AM

      We will know the validity of this acquisition almost immediately as they will be tapping the market for funds. IMHO this deal isn’t as good as it initially looked as they bring in more geopolitical risks.

      They have managed to miss the good run in most the other small pm stocks. Stockcharts can’t even find the symbol anymore.

        Nov 16, 2021 16:51 AM

        Yeah, as mentioned several times now, it is a bummer that Santacruz was halted for this run higher in the PM stocks the last 6 weeks, and also when they put out a good Q3 Earnings report, but the halt was forced by the exchange due to the technical reports they want about the new properties, since this is considered a major transformative transaction for the company.
        I’m still constructive on the overall plan for them to pick up several mines (and even power plants), and a much larger production profile. I don’t see Bolivia as that risky (especially as compared to Mexico which has had plenty of challenges over the last 2 years with jurisdiction risk), and there are many other mining companies operating in Bolivia.
        Also, I don’t think the validity of the transaction will be demonstrated immediately, as it usually takes the markets a while (sometimes several quarters) to process the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of a substantial acquisition. However, as you noted, they do need to raise $20 million in capital as soon as they are unhalted to facilitate this transaction, and that will be odd after having been halted for so long, and missing the opportunity to have a share-price increase before it happened. It is what it is though. If there is a big dip on the financing news, then I’ll buy into that weakness, because overall I like this plan to grow through the acquisition of non-core Glencore mines. That is far easier and more cost effective than trying to do that many mines from grassroots exploration to production and would take years instead of months.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:48 AM

    Hey Matthew….I agree that the risk/reward favours gold over uranium especially with how overbought uranium has been recently….I might slightly disagree with you on it potentially having a blowout top only because I’m more of the opinion it is going to happen. I’m going to go out on a limb and make a prediction….I see uranium definitely breaking through the September high before year end and would not be surprised if the next leg up takes into the $60’s if not briefly touching the $70 range by February…

    Nov 16, 2021 16:42 AM

    UNG/BOIL trade- day update….Now finding resistance at the red OUL….and the lowerer TAS bar…So this should require some time to break above…The TD9 count down has been negated due to this move…So, this is favorable for the bullish momentum since the downside was truncated from normal time symmetry…first target is 18.78 the bearish structured day TAS top….🔊📞

    Nov 16, 2021 16:09 AM

    /GC day… regarding holding miners…the TD9 count is 9 today…so sell offs can occur today and or tomorrow to produce a top of some sort….my technicals especially MACD have strength so I just have stops in case…..The recent top is an RSI divergence so this is a problem…I am watching for now….not fun but it is this game…glta…since metal miners and the metal have a 95% move correlation…I watch the metals mostly to decide exits and less so for entries, since the miners usually move first….

    Nov 16, 2021 16:02 AM

    They put EMOTF on sale again this morning and picked up a few more shares. Even though just added, every buy over the last 7 months in green. Once they figured out that EMOTF existed, the opportunities for swing trading have increased. Not logical price movement, but closer to the “new normal” of computer trading.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:35 AM

    LakeDweler2……emotf….right to .382 retrace of last leg up…THAT is logical in the world of sacred geometry…closer to that dream spot on the water..lmao…careful though it reversed off the top w volume…that smacks of distribution of folks in the know/…just my opinion…

      Nov 16, 2021 16:54 AM

      Thanks Larry. I don’t swing trade, but I am waiting on a whole bunch of news on the progress of EMOTF that hopefully will push the next leg up. On the other hand, my entire portfolio, no matter the composition of miners, has been flat for a year. “Folks in the Know” have been a little bit “too much in the know”. This leaves us defenseless most of the time as the Regulators are still trying to figure out how to get the Wall Street people out of their hierarchy so they can regulate.
      So…I value your warning as it will be added to the stack of things that could happen that are counter intuitve.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:53 AM

    Possible swing high.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:59 AM

    That was an interesting chart that came and went. Thanks.

      Nov 16, 2021 16:39 AM

      The SPQ(PM) post is there somewhere.
      Closed the window after an edit,
      after waiting for completion.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:07 AM

    dxy on a tear lately, finally caught up with gold and bitcoin. Notion that all the can move up by many is an exception and not the rule.
    pullback here to that 1835 area healthy if the recovery past 1870 quick and dirty.
    Meanwhile end of the world prognostications on hold as spx continues its treck.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:10 AM

    I might as well toss this in:
    Remember everytime the infrastructure bill failed to pass or be voted on for whatever reason, and they hit the metals. Well when the House passed it, nothing happened with the metals. When the Senate passed it, nothing happened to the metals. But, when Biden signed the bill, the very next day the metals get hit it hard downwarrd. Then you hear that the infrastructure bill was already priced in. If it was, it was priced in negatively and we should now be having a pop.
    Is it possible that they are going to be improving the infrastructure without the use of metals? Don’t think so unless it is going to be used to manufacture marshmallows.
    I will give a counter theory: no matter the news, everything is bad for the metals, as nothing relflects the corruption, intervention, debt levels, interest rates, bubble mania more than a positive PM and metals market.
    There I said it…

    (Added: Great Bear down -6% + …hooey booey) Sorry to go technical
    (Another Added: # of my stocks positive ONE) Garbage

    Nov 16, 2021 16:49 PM

    Where is Matthew?…the only market timer/technician now is Do?…lmao🔊💩🍔

    Nov 16, 2021 16:26 PM

    I shouldn’t moan and groan so much, but when an intervention is so blatantly orchestrated, no matter by who, I want someone in jail. A good day will be calming.

    Nov 16, 2021 16:26 PM

    I will not edit this!