After the Wedding, Big Al and Marshall Berol discuss gold and the conventional markets.
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Here’s some of the TA stuff:
Gold’s trend, AL, is a wedge, from which it will spring out, probably up. See
http://www.kitco.com/reports/template_jimw.htm
With regard to the general market:
The 50-Day MACD Oscillator is saying sell, allother short term indicators are saying hold or buy.
So TA says market likely to rise.
With regard to gold:
10-8 day MA HiLo channel and 20 day MA vs. price both say up
7 Day Ave directional indic and 50 day MACD osc both say down
So TA says neither up or down.
With regard to Silver:
Except for 10-8 dayMA HiLo channel which indicates up, all four other indicators say down, so TA says sillver will go down.
i have not had the nerve to buy or short anything yet . inclined to short the SPY. some of the gold stocks got creamed today . looking at platinum , paladium bullion .
I bought EPV, which is double-short Europe and I’m up over 20% so far. But it has not been smooth and definitely not for nervous people. Europe may take off if ever the Greek problem is solved, but I don’t think a solution is possible.
I have not shorted America, because the punge protection team or the Fed can at times cause unexpected movements….too scary to short.
The other thing is that I believe we are in an inflationary depression, and as in the Weimar times the stock market will go up as tangible assets gain in value as the money goes down in value.
I believe Eurozone is in a deflationary depression (i.e. 30s America)
Hold on….
TA is indicating both Pd and Pt should go up.
If you look to long at platinum ,,you will miss the extra spif
with regard to EU.
The EFSF is not nearly big enough, and it now appears any attempt to leverage it up will break the EU.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100012681/a-leveraged-efsf-is-pure-poison/
The discussion in your linked article about the EFSF being first-loss instead of last-loss is an interesting read, but I’m just stymied that anyone in the EU powers-that-be ever thought it would be otherwise (or more likely, this is exactly how they planned to release the news…make it a last-loss fund when created, than later turn it into a first-loss, a big bait-and-switch). Perhaps most amazing of all is that markets around the world find such news to be good, or at least stabilizing.
Hi Al
I agree with Marshall that we have had plenty of protests in the past. What is concerning about OWS is the communist groups supporting them, code pink, working families of America, seiu etc. which also support Obama. Also, Zuccotti Park is owned by Brookfield Asset Management who just got a $168 Million loan guarantee from the department of energy for a wind farm called Granite Reliable soon after the protesters took over the park. Where are all the real journalist? This news as well as Obama’s ties with communist groups is not reported by the main stream media. Instead they go to great length to protect Obama. I have to spend a great deal of my time trying to dig for the truth. Something the so called reporters have ceased to do. Hence my comment last week “the Obama controlled media”
The Mayor of New York is also linked in with Brookfield , which explains the low number of arrests.
I think Brookfield or the principals thereof also have ties to Solyndra and they also made big contributions to Obama. (unproven,as yet, for the rush through of the half billion loan guarantee.)
The situation stinks to high heaven, but is totally typical of Chicago politics.
Hi cfs2000,
Hi cfs2000,
You are right about Bloomberg. His girlfriend Diana Taylor is on the Board of Directors at Brookfield Properties. Guess that is why they did not need permits or a porta potty.
I’m nervous about what’s happening in the PM markets. Reading Jesse’s newest post over at jessescrossroadscafe isn’t too encouraging. Are we seeing Cap and Trade in Metals? Cap the rally and trade the market down? If so, could it be that we’re in for a long run here?
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/10/gold-daily-and-silver-weekly-charts_17.html
Interesting website. I’m glad you linked it.
I’m not too worried about the cap-and-trade, which is an interesting short/day trade pattern. I certainly agree with Jesse that over the last little while, there seems to be a small drop in N. American metals prices when London closes. For the longer term (i.e. months and the next few years), none of these little games are going to make a hill’s beans worth of difference. The world is eating up physical gold (large banks have been buying again, only 1 1/2 years after the IMF sold-off 400t), and sliver is selling out at coin shops. Meanwhile, the EU is trying to find ways of turning it’s already borrowed EU448 billion EFSF into an EU 2 trillion EFSF…with arbitrary leverage. PM’s are going in 1 direction. Up.
HONG KONG OPEN FOR TRADE , that should be interesting…on the squeeze of metals
trading in the yuan inlieu of the dollar
Hi Jerry,
As I said in another comment on this subject, I am fascinated by the Asian attitude toward precious metals and that attitude is why I remain bullish on the metals.
Best,
Big Al
I agree with you Big Al 100%–not because I want it to happen but because we’re too far gone to avoid it.
Social unrest is inevitable under the circumstances, and those who mock it on Bloomberg TV should instead be complimentary and polite about it, since at least here in America it remains nonviolent.
Did you can’t the flash on Bloomberg this AM that Americans were arrested for resisting arrest???? How does that work???? “Arrested for resisting arrest, I don’t get it.
Mr. Berol’s parallels to the 1970s overlooks the social revolution of Johnson’s Great Society that spun off the riots in Watts, Detroit, and college campuses across America–the forward momentum of which has had us living on borrowed time (literally) as we stole from the future to “raise all ships (including those of the unworthy). A good share of the borrowed money (as LBJ liked to call it) was stolen from the Social Security Trust Fund–even today the theft goes on! But the future is now; now comes the comes the bill collector.
But a better parallel would be the social upheaval of the late 20s and early 1930s–out of which came the Glass Steagell Act of 1933. How soon ‘we forget that which was too painful to remember’. There was a lot of dancing in the strret back then too. The GSA served us well for decades until it was repealed in 1999 by our REpublican controlled HOuse & Senate..
Hi BJ,
The potential social unrest that could result from really tough economic times is what really bothers me.
Remember the situation in New Orleans. That could be kindergarten compared to what could result if entitlements get cut.
Holy smoke, that is scary just to think about!
Big Al
I believe Europe will go to its version of Glass-Steagall, splitting major banks into two, as part of its solution to the greek problem.
I also believe congress is half full of stupid people who got there because their father or mother was a congress-critter or had political clout, and the other half are bought and paid for by the political machines/lobbyists.
We NEED term limits, No congressonal pensions….they are supposed to be citizens’ representatives.
And a budget that is fixed to GDP, say 10% of of GDP. (That worked historically for centuries in Europe)
and more than that we need a whole bunch of corrupt politicians in JAIL, as an example for the rest.
Mr. cfs,
I completely agree with you about term limits!
Big Al
Al’s last comment roughly stated was: “The U.S. government appears to be a wholly owned subsidiary of big business…”
I believe that Mussolini had a term for this…he called it “corporatism”…also popularily known as “Fascism!”
There are two generations now coming up behind my generation “the Boomers” that have a very bleak future staring them in the face at this time (even though the older folks are going to suffer as well)…if these demonstrations continue to grow as a solid “grassroots movement” around the world, then as things deteriorate more and more…you may eventually see millions in the streets protesting (weather permitting of course…) …then these may seem like “the good old days” that we are experiencing right now…in otherwords…if things get much worse and stay that way for a long period of time…then more and more people will become “disenfranchised” economically and the social unrest will only grow.
The Civil Rights movement and anti-Viet Nam war marches of the 60’s and early 70’s started small and continued to grow year in and year out until there eventually were millions protesting around the U.S. every month on an ongoing basis…this “99% vs. the 1%” protest, is in it’s infancy…eventually it could become a “headspace” generally accepted by the general populace of the world…time will tell…these are “early days” yet folks…but I agree with Al on this one…”The times…they are a’changin…”
Godspeed to everyone and “never pose with another man’s fish!”
HI Bruce in Ottawa,
Your comments and mine just seem logical to me.
Thanks for yours,
Big Al
Sorry if this sounds insanne, i had to go to the dentist today, major toothache, emergency appointment, do you know what he said to me, ‘yep, there’s a problem, yep it would be better if you had come earlier, but we can sort it, and it wont be so bad, the best thing is you came early enough so we can sort it out,’ just made me feel Europe and the US are so behind the curve, you have to take the pain sometimes….and I did…
HI Negel,
That, my friend, is a really great analogy!
Thanks,
Big Al
AL
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE BUY OUT OF SILVER QUEST ? DO WE SELL NOW OR
HOLD?
That would be investment advice,,he can not say..
CRAMER…would say SELL, SELL, SELL.(but, that is TV)
do not take this as investment advice, because I dont know.
Just trying to help AL out…
Hi Jerry,
Hey man, I need all the help that I can get.
Thanks,
Big Al
Can’t give you advice, but I am not selling any of my shares.
Big Al
I disagree with Marshall B…., that is like saying the civil rights marches did not change things….I think Marshall is taking things to lightly….,,”…I am a product of the 60’s ,,and things are totally different now .,
…UNEMPLOYMENT FOR ONE…, ANY ONE WHO WANTED A JOB COULD GET ONE.,people are aware there is something wrong ,,they just have not had time to put the pieces together yet..
The exporting of manufacturing jobs and importing of goods formerly produced in N.America, along with the unemployment and poverty might be what’s wrong. America’s post WW2 economic glory days were protected by tariffs and duties on imported goods that have been largely removed now. Free trade deals are all about making corporations wealthier at the expense of the middle class. As Bruce in Ottawa pointed out, we are living in days where we are controlled by corporations, and “gov’t of the people, by the people, for the people” has been branded as either socialism or protectionism. The media giants control public discussion on TV and radio and will keep crapping out the same meaningless nonsense until the cows come home re: what is wrong with the economy. But they will never dare talk about the straight goods. Bottom line is, in order for wealth to return to our shores there has to be good paying manufacturing jobs – and lots of them – to rebuild the middle class. Then you will see growth and stability and a low unemployment level, and a decent standard of living such as America of the 50’s, 60’s & 70’s had. Until Washington starts passing legislation that protects “we the people”, things will only continue to spiral downwards. Personally, I think the removal of tariffs which allow corporations to close operations here and set up shop off shore and import the product back into America duty free, is treasonous. The politicians who have voted away the protection for the middle class have sacrificed the nation for the gain of the few. I hope they were paid well for their votes!
PAUL now you are talking politics,,,the politicians will not change until you chase everyone
of them out of office,,and start with TERM LIMITS…,no more than one term.
HI Paul,
I am curious, how long to you think you solution would take?
I think that the environment has gotten so negative that only a major and very dramatic change will work. (And, I don’t mean violence!)
Big Al
I left a reply on last Friday, I believe, and I don’t want to be repetitive, but since that thread’s freshness date has expired, let me just repeat quickly…check out Additive Layer Manufacturing. It’s going to change the way things are made…nearly anything can be made by printing it, anywhere, with “inks” made from soluable metal or plastic solution that hardens quickly after dispensed. It won’t matter anymore where a manufacture is located.
Forget what you know about manufacturing…the technology is just 1st gen right now, but in the not-too-distant future, it will be used for making most finished goods, in China, New York or the North Pole…it won’t matter where.
Oh man Jerry, that is so true.
All I can say about the future is, “Just you wait Henry Higgins!”
Best,
Big Al
not as seasoned in gold/silver as you folks, but it seems to me that forces with a great deal of money are controlling this market,,,,even the US gov….they have a great deal to lose! not really sure, anymore, that we will benefit in the metals as so many believe…am hopeful you are right! the world out there is about to force themselves on us for years to come!
wyn
Hi wyn harter,
Its a race to the bottom with all the fiat currencies. Governments will inflate money in an attempt to control the debt. Gold and silver will protect your wealth
HI wyn,
You are absolutely correct. All you have to do is ask yourself where would we all be if the currency collapsed? I think that we all know the answer to that question.
I am not saying that I do not continue to remain bullish on the metals. There are a lot of external factors that, in my mind, that make this to be true.
Best,
Big Al
Berol, get a clue. This is not a typical protest. They are going after the throat of the Fascist beast!
Hi Big Al Martin,
I believe you are correct. I will say that the folks in Seattle who I spoke with last Saturday were pretty intelligent and orderly.
I am pretty convinced that this will change.
Best,
Big Al
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Stert with this page:
http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/TAcourseIntro.html
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