Big Al and Trader Rog recap this past week in the gold and silver markets.
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I Ditto that sentiment.
Marc
HI Marc,
Notice that as of Friday, the Husky men’s basketball team is at the top of the PAC 12.
Hop this isn’t a case of the best of the worst as we sometimes refer to the U.S. dollar!
Best,
Big Al
Big Al
I thought I would NEVER see the day when the MWC b-ball is ahead of the PAC 12 in-terms of strength of conference..unbelievable…Also, what the heck happened to UCLA basketball….boy, how the mighty have fallen…sounds, TOO, like the U.S. dollar in reference to your post above!
All the best,
Marc
What facts support your position that “sooner or later physical will overwhelm the phony paper”? Silver is a small market and the manipulators are huge. They can keep this up for as long as they like.
HI Jerry,
I don’t agree that “sooner or later phsical will overwhelm the phone paper.”
I maintain that, sure, some of it is phony. But I believe that only an uninformed idiot would invest in the “phony paper”.
Best,
Big Al
Hi Al,
I agree with Arnie. Sinclair explained exactly what happened and why.
Thanks Arnie,
This was also brought up in another section of this blog.
Best,
Bis Al
Oops, forgot to say the blog and interview are to be found on King World News.
The theme at the CRIC seemed to be embrace VOLATILITY…ok, I think I get the picture. How’s my physical bullion stash doing? I don’t know and I don’t care….as long as it stays put and doesn’t make a sound – :).
Go Aztecs! and good luck in the MW Tourney and the BIG DANCE!
All the best,
Marc
HI Marc,
The Big Dance should be pretty interesting at least for a while. Good look to the Aztecs until they play the Dawgs!
Big Al
Yeah, for your sake.
I dont think we will get that far this year….but boy, we are LOADED FOR BEAR..in 2012/2013!
Marc
I agree Arnie, but I also think Roger is excellent with his techs and I think he is right about wider trading ranges. I also think bull markets can blow away techs as well as manipulation can. Although this might have been just a big sell off by someone needing currency.
I havnt changed my thinking the way to stop the corruption is to take the physical silver off the market Money (currency) where my mouth is I picked up a few oz today.
The dealer was doing brisk business and for the fisrt time there was a conversation there from buyers about corruption. At least Ive never seen that before.
I second the suggestion for the Sinclair and Maguire interviews. They get that trading going in Asia and we are gonna see some price action in PMs.
Thanks again for all you guys do Al and Rog.
Hi benb,
I ditto that comment too…but its ok to disagree….also….no?
Marc
benb…..Roger is a trader…..Sinclair is a holder…,the difference, both ways make
money….so, I agree with you on roger being excellent on the techs….
When we do start seeing more action and upside,,,there will be bigger moves…
Sinclairs says be prepared for daily moves of $400 in a day….
Now , that will be a “bull ride” with a” lot of shaken goin on”….
You are welcome benb,
Thank you for being active on this site.
Big All
Hi Marc, sure its ok to disagree, what you disagree with?
Nothin at all…I think I misread something here.!?
Sorry,
Marc
Marc does simply not agree that the Univ. of Wash. Dawgs are the greatest basketball and football teams on the West Coast. (Well, maybe not football!)
Big Al
Big Al,
Are you getting into the HOOCH too early on a glorious Friday evening?
Marc
Al, I’ve said since last fall that we should have consolidation and sideways movement in the precious metal markets for some time when many were talking about eminent higher prices—about 6 weeks ago I began posting about the probable formation of a large reverse head and shoulders formation and that we were forming the right shoulder. The large drop appears that it’ll now allow us some more movement down to culminate in the formation of that right shoulder. I would be surprised if we move up higher next week for a double top. In my opinion, we’ll probably be moving down in the next 2-3 weeks for that final low for this year. It’ll then be the time to buy again.
Thanks Richard,
Trader Rog is discussing this on the Weekend Show and on Kitco Radio today.
Best,
Big Al
I have a confession. You guys, for me, represent one of my daily stops on the internet to get a reading on precious metals. That’s the good news.
Now for the bad news and my reason for responding to today’s report. You start to lose me when you choose to tap dance around the obvious. Watch your report again and listen intently. This need for political correctness is part of the reason our country is headed for the dumpster.
“Profit-taking”… “one big blip”…”somebody came in with a BIG order to sell”. Come on. I don’t think that we should need a translation table to make complete sense of what you are trying to say. If you don’t want to say that it is the U.S. government or one of it’s delegates (JP Morgan) that are trying to derail the forward momentum of gold and silver, might I suggest that we use the term “central bankers.”
This isn’t breaking news. You are not going to hurt Jamie Dimon’s feelings. Also, please keep in mind that JPM is well aware of all of the nuances in technical analysis. If part of their goal is to create some chart pattern that can be used as some type of plausible explanation in a price suppression move, don’t you think that they might stoop so low as to create one?
Thanks for the comment going down fast.
Big and Politically Correct Al
Going down fast i AGREE WITH YOU, THATS WHY i WAS SAYING MANIPULATION CAN DESTROY CHARTS. bUT i FIND ROGER RIGHT UP UNTIL THE TIME THE TAKE DOWNS OCCUR. oops,sry 4 caps. Afterwards he is right again,just what I have noticed. I think the other thing that can hurt tech is the bull itself, moving unexpectadly to the upside.
Personally, I think this manipulation doesnt stop until the physical is off the market.
Then again there may be hope (listen to mcguire kwn) Only thing there is the “bad guys” killed the last attempt . Power has the darkside,will they do it again?
Profit taking my arse……………This was a take down by the boys, pure & simple…………Just my humble opinion.
Your opinion, Mr. Irish, is definitely not humble.
Best,
Big Al
Consider the possibility gold is being taken down is linked to Iran’s telling India, etc. they will accept gold for payment of their oil in place of the dollar.
I think, Bill, that the situation is a lot more complicated than that.
Big Al
Hey guys,
How about a play on the Chinese Yuan, Indian Rupee and Canadian dollar?
There are many who believe they will appreciate greatly against the US dollar in the next 3 to 4 years. I know, you know, that I am a physical metals junkie, but what about a nod to diversification as BIG Al, keeps clamoring about :).
Marc
Hey, nothin like throwin out ideas- the way things are going – they will be the last currencies standing! Unless, you in include the Norwiegan ? and the Brazilian Real.
Canadian and Australian, good for a while, although exports are very important to those currencies.
China…no, not in my opinion. The yuan/renimbi is still not really a floating currency at all. It’s quasi-pegged to the US dollar at around 6.5:1. If and when The Peoples Democratic Republic decides to truly let it float, maybe. Even then, they’re export driven too.
India, possibly. If they have enough internal domestic growth that insulates the country from the mess of the rest of the world, it may do OK, relative to other fiat currencies.
Norway krone is good. Europe’s reliance on Russia for energy is something they really want to get away from, so any Euro provider of oil has got a captive market. $100+ oil has made Norway rich, and it will continue to do so even if the rest of Europe starts falling apart like that Brazilian helicopter.
Norway is close to both Q.E.II. and Eurolands, and might ultimately have to show some sort of “solidarity” should GBP and EUR tank, think: currency basket pegs, even higher taxes, and capital controls. How about East Asia? Haven’t some countries there learned from their crisis in the 90’s, besides showing a more growth potential than geriatric Europe?
I think the solidarity you mention is exactly what would happen (projecting out 2-3 years). Norway already tries to beat to it’s own drum, even within the Scaninavian region, and they already more vigilant with debt (although that’s largely due to their windfall of pricey oil, much like Brazil and Russia are cashing in too…of course, their politicians feels it’s their own economic policies that are to credit). The problem with the krone is it’s such a small currency…it couldn’t absorb the amount of investment funds looking for a place to park, just like Canada and Australia cannot.
The problem with East Asia is the entire region has been capitalized with both industry and money with the idea the world will keep buying their trinkets at a 5% growth rate forever. It’s exports have dropped as world markets cannot afford as much (Anna, where are you with the Baltic Dry figures!?). That problem, or so conventional wisdom goes, will only worsen if the US and EU buy less if/when currency further deteriorates (making imports more expensive). Just in case Anna isn’t around, the BLT is at an abysmal 778 pts. It was at 2100 in October and around 1,500 all last year.
Anyways, just don’t see a lot of good alternatives. Maybe genuine Picassos. Otherwise, I’m back to silver and gold!
Yeah, it’s tough when even Myanmar is on everyone’s list for potential investing…
Picassos? Let me think. With 29 around, not sure if this is genuine enough:
http://www.pandaamerica.com/NEWS_frsPicasso_02_02_11.asp?keyword=picasso
Hey guys,
Thanks so much for the very intelligent and astute comments!
Marc
impeach,
Picasso’s on silver wafers. Not bad. Not bad at all!
And by the way, we’re all taught to buy low, sell high, then do the opposite. Jim Rogers made his riches in the late 70’s doing crazy things like investing in the Myanmar’s of the day. In this case, I think Myanmar has indeed sunk pretty low, but unfortunately will probably stay there for a couple of decades. Talk about buy-and-hold. But in all seriousness, looking for basket case countries (perhaps ones that really do make baskets) isn’t a bad idea. The guys at Casey Research do this too, although I’m not sure how well Doug’s Egyptian apartment rentals are doing. Still, I admire the moxie it takes to invest in the true emerging markets.
It was a display of power by Fed Chairman and the cartel, bringing down gold and silver.
Hi Keep Stacking,
It was a display of power alright, but I think they only have the power as long as the masses believe they are in control of the situation. Once it’s perceived that the game is up, and the mask comes off, then the public loses confidence in them, and the ability to display their power is over. So, I’m actually hoping this thing comes to a head sooner rather than later. Then, once the faux currency game tanks, we can get to the task of rebuilding our economic and financial house with something solid, a gold and silver standard. Always good to read your comments.
Display of power? Yes. Display of arrogance? I think so too.
Hi Al, my name is Paul and I listen to your show all the time. I just want you to know, that I think your such an honest and really informed person. I’m just an average American worker, not rich and fortunately not poor thanks to my heavenly father. I pick up a little gold here and there as much as my budget can afford and silver to. But if it wasn’t for your show I woulden’t have any idea about how gold and silver works in this economy and probably would never have dabbled in it. Every time I look at that dollar in my pocket and a tenth ounce coin of gold it makes me so happy I listen to your show. Please, please continue to inform Americans like me that when it comes down to the nitty gritty they better have Gold and Silver in there posession. Please stay as you for ever and May GOD bless you for the wonderful and honest job your doing on KITCO. Paul
Paul,
Great comment and WELCOME!
Marc
Hi Paul,
Welcome aboard. Glad to have you and I agree completely with your fine comments. Big Al and Trader Rog are the best!
Marc….castanheiro…….ditto…to our new friend….WELCOME….
BTW,
MSN money just listed the top ten stock holdings of all the congressman and senators. Not one gold and silver play not even close! We are talking major millions of dollars invested here – folks…EXXON, INTEL, MICROSOFT, PFIZER, GE, etc, etc. note that these are all very “mainstream” investments and are NOT going to go down easy. Paper assets yes, but firmly, in the blood of American ‘capitalism”. We know we have made it when Goldcorp, Silver Wheaton, Kinross starts to penetrate that list.
Oh boy, can you say QE to infinity to keep the stock market off of life support!
All the best,
Marc
Excellent observation there, Marc. Much appreciate this perspective.
Thanks.
Keep stacking is on it.
Silver is a game,as Sinclair often states.
The PTB destroyed silver as money over a century ago.
Hundreds of million of oz were shipped from China and India to London and New York.
‘The Silver Stealers’ by Charles Savoie -438 historical pages found on the web.
The PTB can take silver out forever more- in an instant.They have a history of it.
Gold? Same story but still has a purpose going forward.
If the PTB can in fact forever smack down PM’s at will, then those of us who invest in gold and silver are pawns in a losing game. But as a student and former teacher of history, I respectfully disagree. All empires and systems eventually fail (Egypt, Persia, Greece, Rome, Britain, etc). All that’s left of them is ruins. But Truth and gold are forever.
MattB…..have you seen the artical that Sinclair put out on silver , and his
current thoughts….dated feb 2…where he discusses Alf’s take on silver
and compares silver and gold in the elliot wave theory….and comes up
as a conclusion that silver and gold do move together in the wave….
Baltic Dry Index
What I heard on financialsense.com was that many new ships were completed over the last 5 years and the way the index is measured is by containers per ship and not the number of total containers. Thus, it is also a skewed reading designed to mislead. The bull could be very sneaky and throw off many people because of this alone. Has anyone heard more on this?
Dan
not lately…,,.other than the BDI…was at a low….and that was three weeks ago
We had an expert on this situation before,,,The name was Anna…have not seen
her post since Jan…Anna from the Alps…
My mistake; the BDI is measured by what shippers can charge per container. Thus, more ships in a slower economy means more choice and lower prices with the same amount of goods. The BDI could go down with the same amount of shipping. To be fair, the unit cost would go up slightly with ships moving at lower capacity.
Dan
sorry …John I did not see your post above….before posting this…
Oh, no need to be sorry. Anna’s the expert. Although, BDI is a very useful figure from the Baltic Exchange, the HARPEX is also important. It’s a proprietary measure of many shipped goods, not just commodities. Anyone can read about it at http://www.harperpetersen.com/harpex/harpexVP.do . It’s actually a very interesting website. I can now tell a Handymax from a SuperMax at 10 miles away! (that’s a joke — I think the average seagull could do the same).
Thanks to Dan for bringing it up. There are variations that many of us non-experts do not immediately understand.
I am not sure which podcast on financialsense.com the info on the BDI was in. More thoughts;
-orders for new ships would have been cancelled after 2008.
-since orders of new ships would have virtually stopped, there will be a gap in production after many older ships are decomissioned for various reasons.
-the least efficient ships would be the first ones decomissioned because of the shipper’s profit margins dropping due to over supply.
-ships that were in the later stages of completion would have flooded the market after the run up in the world economies to 2008.
Dan
One more thought;
-the newer the ship the better chance that a large purchase financing obligation will not be met and the ship will be repossesed, so to speak.
You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear. She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hemirt crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone!
Hi Maahivij,
Off topic is okay. All comments are interesting!
Big Al
Here we go, stage two of the engineered silver price drop.
Dan
Yes and here we go with the next round of…WHEN GOLD HITS THIS PRICE OR THAT PRICE>>THE GOLD STOCKS ARE GOING TO BLAST OFF>>>ONCE IT BREAKS THIS OR THAT LEVEL IT”S GOING TO $2000 $5000 …etc etc etc…next week next month any day now..were almost there…etc etc etc Tomorrow tomorrow Tomorrow…you guys would make Little Orphan Annie…Proud
I agree with you Reo, something broke these last few days. I sold almost all my stocks and went into HZD, silver down. The bastards are at the controls again. My guess is that $30 will be tested and will break to the mid to high $20s. My money is where my comments are. Good luck all.
Dan
Gentlemen: I strongly recommend everybody have a look and listen at the latest blog and interviews with industry giants and insiders Jim Sinclair and Andrew Maguire. The volume, suddenness and severity of the takedown on Wednesday does not suggest to me at all normal profit taking. For a move of nearly $100/oz down in only minutes strongly suggests massive co-ordinated moves by very big players. Manipulated? Absolutely! Which is not to say gold and silver won’t rebound soon. The game-playing by powerful entities is just too blatant and repetitive to write off as normal market activity. I’m staying in the game, personally, as sooner or later the physical will overwhelm the phony paper.