Monday Gold Commentary from Big Al and Trader Rog

Big Al
March 12, 2012

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Mar 12, 2012 12:03 PM

    No sound – no nothing. Just like the gold & silver market.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:04 PM

    My error

    Mar 12, 2012 12:10 PM

    AL, I think they are going to jack the numbers up………thats got to be bad for the PM’s & yes i agree with ROGER. Although look on the bright side, with a correction on the downside that equals = cheaper metal……Time to spend a few more dollars.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:46 AM

      Good Morning Mr. Irish,

      Tuesday a.m. over here and gold is down about $11.

      Interesting to see what happens the rest of today and certainly the rest of the week.

      Yup, maybe time to spend a few more dollars!

      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:25 PM

    Roger..what happened to your BULLISH predictions of Gold hitting a new high SOON and Silver $38 or more by the end of March..So another correction where we should buy more from our ENDLESS SUPPLY of money that we can lose as GoldSilver and the mining stocks go down….then comes the Sell IN MAY AND GO AWAY..oh another CORRECTION…then the SUMMER DOLDRUMS…oh another correction….The only time in 2012 that we may have some good movement in Gold and Silver will be in the fall…but with an election…all the Reports and Data will be Totally faked and manipulated to try and win the election…what that will do to Gold and Silver..????? who knows. I doubt we will see any New Highs in 2012 or any decent moves in the Mining shares…After the election, well everything changes…You continually predict everything is going up then when it doesn’t happen and it goes down..OH JUST ANOTHER CORRECTION…Going up anytime..soon any day next week tomorrow….BLAH BLAH BLAH

      Mar 12, 2012 12:03 PM

      Reo ,
      Have you had an opportunity to read anything on EWT?(not trying to be smart here)
      This will really give you an overall view of what to expect…presently, one year out,
      ,2,3,4,5 years out…

      Mar 12, 2012 12:21 PM

      TraderRog provides excellent PM analysis.

      He is a big fish in an even bigger pond.

      Who are you?

      Mar 12, 2012 12:46 PM


      Roger Wiegand gives an outlook which is primarily created for his trades in Trader Tracks. Those trades, as Rog has mentioned many times, typically run 3 to 6 months, but he will close a position if he makes his exit price sooner. He does not have to be correct in his daily commentary to meet his goals, because his investment system does not require that. Roger predicts what’s the most likely outcome, and talks about it to all of us (for free). If his call is wrong for this week, that’s fine, because his trading operation allows him several more months to be correct later and still make a profit. In the meantime, using spreads and hedges allows him to be wrong without usually hitting loss limits.

      You appear to be falling into a trap that most of us average traders and investors do, which is to continue looking for crystal ball perfection on market calls based upon endless news. Frustration occurs when you’re not hedged against losses, or don’t understand your risk/reward ratio (i.e. why you were in the investment in the first place). For most traders, though I won’t say you, that is due simply to impatience and lack of experience.

      Who knows, you might be right and 2012 may be another dud. There’s a lot of vested interests who would like that to happen. The fundamentals scream the opposite though. You are actually doing in your comment what you accuse Roger of…”You continually predict everything is going up then when it doesn’t happen and it goes down.”

      Gold was at $1550 not too long ago, and is now $1700 so it is up. Silver was at $26 last fall, and is 33.58 now, so it is up. It sounds like you’re disappointed that silver hasn’t done a double or triple in the last 3 months!

      Mar 12, 2012 12:38 PM

      I understand your frustration. The excuses are endless for the negative actions in the pm’s but keep in mind that the fundamentals have not changed. The day to day activity is “noise” and should be tuned out. Keep your perspective long term and ignore the daily activity and you will be fine. Just my opinion.

        Mar 12, 2012 12:41 PM

        Hello Gatorman, Superdobbs, John W R, Jerry O^OTB, Irishtony, Hal and Dai Uy,
        You are all so right. Agreed 1000%. For all of us, here is a great little column from market watch by Paul Ferrell, entitled, “10 reasons Wall Street will hit bottom, crash”. It’s not long, and is an excellent reminder of the ‘fundamental’ reasons that motivate all of us to be IN the pms.
        Best to all you wonderful people!!!

          Mar 13, 2012 13:40 AM

          C..HERO…WITH ALL THIS GREAT INFO…are you bucking for ring master?

      Mar 12, 2012 12:35 PM

      Roger gives you his best assessment from Technical Analysis as to what he believes will or may happen. It is a best guess. It is just that, an educated, best guess. Even if you are a paying customer of Roger’s, ultimately YOU have to decide when and where to invest,,,and when and where to get out. Where and when you get out is often more critical than where you get in. Roger is not omniscient, nor is any other fallible human being. There is only ONE who knows everything and HE doesn’t give specific investment advice, at least not to me(although I wish HE would). We are living in very ‘precarious’ times(for lack of a better word). Games are being played with the dollar, gold and silver, like never before. The Central bankers, bullion banks, certain hedge funds, and their cohorts are desperate to keep their game going as long as possible. They are extremely bright, capable, and CRAFTY people, who as you know, will stop at nothing to stay in control. So,,,,the normal patterns, trends, formulations, paradigms are being upset, manipulated, messed with, etc. This makes it very difficult, almost impossible for a technician like Roger to be accurate. As stated here by others, we all are frustrated, BUT you have to squelch that emotion or it will cause you to make decisions that aren’t prudent. If you are an emotion driven person, you will have to gain some discipline in this area. Try to make your decisions based on good reasoning, looking at fundamentals, and absolutely NOT on emotion. Hope this helps, along with what others have written.
      Best to you

    Mar 12, 2012 12:40 PM

    HELLO REO………Its no good having a go at ROGER, he is just one man up against the machine, & i’m sure he is as frustrated as you & the rest of us on this site. For what it’s worth i still believe in the PM’s……….With respect tony.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:57 PM

      DITTO IRISH…I agree…..

        Mar 12, 2012 12:44 PM

        DITTO, DITTO, Irish and Jerry.

          Mar 13, 2012 13:39 PM

          we are becoming a bunch of dittos here…..

    Mar 12, 2012 12:47 PM


    based on what you said, I would not want to give you directions to the closest McDonalds.

    What many forget is just how rigged these markets incl the bond and regular equity markets are. Not to forget, the news is sort of “controlled” too, U C the WSJ article today asking about the disconnect with unemployment?

    Information-good reliable info is difficult to come by.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:20 PM

      Man up Reo. Make your own investment decisions. Neither Rog or Al give investment advice and my hunch is that those who trade on this blog trade on fundamentals and not timing. I’ve dropped almost all my financial newsletters in lieu of this blog.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:47 PM


    Several interesting developments today. Iceland, whose currency is pretty much toast, may be trading in the Looney, not the Euro or dollar, in the future for their exports as they believe that they have more in common with resource rich Canada than the U.S..

    Rye Patch filed a motion for either a preliiminary or a permanent injunction re: their Coeur Rochester claims presumably to replace either an expired or soon to expire Temporary Restraining Order(TRO) on these same claims. TRO’s have a much shorter shelf life.

    This is a notch above in this continuing litigation. Rye Patch must establish irreparable harm and a high probabity of success on the merits and more importantly, should the Court grant the injunction, it must make findings of fact and conclusions of law and to the extent that there is no dispute of material facts, then Rye Patch would be well postured to bring a motion for summary judgment thus ending the matter w/o the necessity of a trial should the injunction be granted. Because an injunction is such extaordinary relief and because of the findings and conclusions requirement, courts are much more reluctant to grant them absent almost conclusive evidence in support of granting an injunction. And if Rye Patch is unsuccessful in their latest quest, then the claims will be resolved at trial.

    Get well…………… Under the “Tain’t Fair” doctrine, your Huskies were
    treated very, very badly but you can still cheer for another team on my side of the Cascade Curtain………………… or perjaps even the Aztecs?

      Mar 12, 2012 12:07 PM

      Hey Dai Uy – Big Al
      Thanks for the Aztec plug. We are getting hammered in the national media – ESPN, etc… The SD UT just ran a newswire article for national distribution breaking down the brackets – You guessed it – UPSET special of the MIDWEST – North Carolina State over SDSU. Hey, I am not sayin we will win, but do these guys east of the Mississippi really know this team….This was supposed to be our DOWN year…KUDOS to my boys for showing up and playing some passionate b-ball. We will find out soon enough.
      All the best,
      PS I would LOVE to take out G-town!

      Mar 13, 2012 13:54 AM

      Morning Dai Uy,

      I am not really sure that the Dawgs were treated unfairly. We will see how the NIT plays out.

      As Kathy said last night, they are a very young team and we both believe that the coach has done a pretty good job with a group of youngsters.

      Regarding Rye Patch, I have an update scheduled today with Bill.


      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:51 PM

    Reo: can’t call the dates pefect- Also our letter readrers get more infor than on this site. we still see correction this week followed by new rallies- thats still in March

    Mar 12, 2012 12:53 PM

    BTW–to have Bernanke talk down the QE 2 weeks ago on 2/29 and then the Fed talks about the new sterization is rather telling. To have plosser say on 2/29 the fed might raise rates in 2012–when a couple of weeks earlier the Fed debate was over extending low rates to 2014 or 2016 is also telling. More important is that employment prob is not getting better , the econ is weak, and the usd is in process of being abandoned. Tell me the time frame and you have a big winner.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:57 AM

      Morning Hal,

      You make a very good point in that the information flow does not seem to be very consistent.

      Interestingly enough, according to the govt figures, the average person in the street is convinced that everything is getting better.

      Strange world!

      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:01 PM

    Roger probably won`t be able to get to your trader tracks in April, oh well if you have it on tapes, dvd`s I would buy it. Otherwise I`ll be selling what I produce, and then tuck away some refined metals silver and gold for that future massive crash coming very soon. And Al`s right better to be in on the safe side, and have something other than paper money around in your safe or in your pocket that might be worthless in the near future. As to having/owning metal in the ground make`s good sense, any property that`s got good metals deposits in it. And owning mines in another country in Canada or South America when this country may want to nationalize what you own here is a good idea.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:59 AM

      Morning Dennis,

      I am not particularly concerned about the mining industry being nationalized here in the U.S. in the near future.

      I do agree (and you know that I practice what I preach) that owning miners outside the U.S. in stable areas does make sense.


      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:07 PM

    Sorry about my rather obvious and unintentional mispelling………………

    Mar 12, 2012 12:18 PM

    DAI UY…Hi……..In the words of JOHN W……..We knew what you meant.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:05 PM

      if we were all concerned with spelling, we would never get our great ideas out in a

      Mar 12, 2012 12:00 PM

      And in my own words…We new what yoo ment.

        Mar 12, 2012 12:44 PM

        nice humour JOHN haha

          Mar 12, 2012 12:07 PM

          Ditto that

        Mar 12, 2012 12:49 PM

        I would have written sooner, but had to stop laughing first. ha ha

          Mar 13, 2012 13:45 AM

          C..HERO…, do not encourage JRW….or he may write you a bed time story” book”
          goldie locks, and the three bars…

            Mar 13, 2012 13:58 AM

            Thanks Jerry O^OTB for the caution,
            I’ll be more careful from now on. I just hope the ‘three bars’ are 10 oz. gold bars.
            ha ha. You guys keep me entertained. I normally have to pay for stuff like this. Ooops, don’t want to give Al any ideas.

            Mar 13, 2012 13:23 PM

            I could definitely write a book about bars. Bars of goldie.

      May 08, 2012 08:59 PM

      Hey Deanna, the show looks awesome! I know weird mode of iniqury, but I was wondering if you or Ed had anything showcasing in Paris right now? Thanks,Ross

    Mar 12, 2012 12:23 PM

    Hi Al. Oh here`s a newer link than the one from that earlier site from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics its got Jan., & Feb. 2012 months on it at seasonally adjusted at U-6 for Feb. 2012 @ 14.9% and for not seasonally adjusted at U-6 for Feb 2012 @ 15.6%.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:24 PM

    Al, you and Rog are coming my way. I’ve said since fall we’re moving into a loooooong period of consolidation. I’ve also said in the last few months we’re developing a large head and shoulder pattern on the weekly charts. We will take down the 200 week MA this week or next week. I’ll buy when we see $1600-$1625. What really worries me is the divergences seen in the stock markets. If they go which I suspect then one wonders how the precious metals markets will react along with the stocks. In the past they have taken a beating as well. Also, you have all the lemmings talking about a “soft landing” in China. I’ve said all along we’ll probably see more then a “soft landing”. The data out of China for their trade in February was a lot worse then the analysts thought. It looks like our GDP will be close to 1 in the first quarter yet employment is growing modestly. One of them has to give in the future and I believe it’ll be employment—down. I am increasing my short positions on materials, oil, material, banks and the stock markets. The VIX is at a low of 16 and complacency is amazing. Something is going to give here and I don’t think it’ll be to the upside.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:27 PM


    I like your analysis for a 2012/13 rise in the gold and silver prices. If you beleive that the market looks 6 months in advance then now is the time to pony up or get a part time job to support your account for this stealth rise. No one will tap any of us on the shoulder as to when to buy.

    LOW volume on the TSX.V. Time to gripe may pass soon or we get steamrolled.


    Mar 12, 2012 12:47 PM

    Gold and Silver and their mining stocks are under downward pressure as caused by the perception the US economy is improving. A great majority of investments are short term and I think the majority of that is in 7 second intervals. The so called improvements in the economy as reported by the BLS (bureau of labor and statistics) is related to the near free money available at the Fed Window for .25% or less interest. Banks are getting billions of dollars every day from the fed and then use this money to bulk up their balance sheets.

    For example any one of the primary dealers at the treasury can obtain nearly free money (0.25%) from the Fed, then purchase three year or longer treasuries at more than .25% and pocket the taxpayer interest. Actually most of the money paid by the treasury to these banks who got the investment money for nearly free at the Fed, was free money created at the fed through their revolving door policies, a classic ponzi scheme. This is whats giving the US economy an illusion to improvement, and in some small sectors like part time jobs there might be some improvement.

    The media and financial centers post such BLS and artificial economic improvement as real, which helps reduce the demand in the US for gold and Silver investments. Remember that next year taxes of all kinds go way up, with higher percentage increases than ever before. Because of this we are not going to see any long term economic investments in such things like factories or major businesses. The false economy will continue to appear improved until about sometime mid year when massive cash out of equities, and any business or asset that will be subject to higher taxes in 2013. The so called “profit taking” will occur many months in advance of normal during 2012.

    After the above takes place, the US will be in a really bad spot even though tax revenues for 2012 will appear to be going up, because by 2013 tax revenues will fall off a cliff at the same time government debt has exploded up to nearly $17 trillion and nearly all of this due to money printing at the Fed.

    Towards the end of 2012, Financial repression will accelerate with extreme measures of capital control. Things like what Italy, Spain, Argentina and other bankrupt government do will likely be attempted here in the US. It won’t work to the improvement of the US of course, but will lead to a hyper-inflationary depression and probably the end of the Federal Government as we know it.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:36 PM

      Was this the bad news or the good news? Time to pour a scotch and watch an episode of the Jetsons.

        Mar 12, 2012 12:05 PM

        Jerry: Well if we know what the bad news is, we can plan to make our own good news later.

        Mar 12, 2012 12:06 PM

        A Scotch sounds real good.

          Mar 13, 2012 13:05 AM

          Hi Jerry and Clay,

          So correct, if we know what the bad news is, we can make our good news later. I am certainly trying to do just that.

          Regarding the scotch, okay but it is 8 a.m. here in Semiahmoo. Black coffee is doing the trick for this major cold infested codger. (Who still walks 18 holes and carries his bag!)

          Big Al

            Mar 13, 2012 13:47 AM

            AL……….we all know why you carry your bag, its full of your PM stash………you’r scared to leave it at home, in case your BUTLER NICKS IT.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:48 PM

    We know how this game ends so don’t concern yourselves about these interim moves.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:49 PM


      Mar 12, 2012 12:51 PM

      I like it. Simple and right to the point.
      Bravo with Jerry O^OTB

    Mar 12, 2012 12:56 PM

    To support my above opinion.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:55 PM

      great post clay….wonder what took him so long to figure it out….

      Mar 12, 2012 12:53 PM

      Good little column. Right on.
      Thanks much

    Mar 12, 2012 12:32 PM

    I think it is really important to keep all of this in perspective. Might we go down a bit from here? Maybe. But I’m not planning to sell my Bullion anytime soon. The perception of open QE seems to be of great importance to the fast money and trend followers, but in the big picture, the balance sheets of Central banks are growing, and growing with more and more assets of ever-lowering quality. The quality of Sovereign Debt is growing more and more suspect, and with it the confidence in the underlying currencies. That trend is still well in place.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:08 AM

      Morning Martin C,

      You mean the quality of the sovereign debt of a place like Greece?

      The real interesting question to me is will that situation be defined as a default!

      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:08 PM

    China’s growth is slowing and they will DEVALUE the Yuan vs. the dollar. This is why the politiburro was advising the citizens to buy gold. This will choke off physical demand in China and probably lead to sales from Chinese individuals to lock in USD profits. The Rupee is also falling against the dollar increasing the gold price in India. This is choking off demand in India. The rising dollar – who is it going to fall against? The EUR? The Rupee? The Real? The Rial? The Loonie – Canada’s housing bubble is starting to deflate – sales momentum is dropping while housing starts are up and Canadian personal debt to income is at levels seen in the US in 2006 – the Yen? Is going to cause the USD price of gold to retreat substantially, probably to about $1100. The fundamentals for gold long term are still bright but do most gold holders have any idea of what happened to gold price action between 1975 and late 1976? Even though the fundamentals had not changed gold lost 50% of its value before heading on the parabolic spike and most of the gains. 1975 (gold peaked in the summer of 1974) was 13 y years after the gold pool was instituted (Nov 1961). 2012 is 13 years after the bear market bottomed. This year – late 2011 to mid 2013 gold is going to trade down to $1100. In the summer of 1974 gold peaked at $190 an oz, gold in the summer of 2011 peaked at $1900 and will trade to $1100. Minus the final panic sell off caused by the BOE gold started this bull from approximately $350 and the previous gold bull started at $35. Now what happened to gold stocks during the 1975-1977 sell off? The BGMI goes from 525 to 200 in 1977. It does spike from 200 to 1200 between 1977-1981. Im sure some of you can hold on through the upcoming 50% decline but if you do not look to history expect to be surprised.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:52 PM

      With all due respect, the macro environment is COMPLETELY different. I believe it is fool hearty at best to compare the two decades – 70’s vs. today – NO WAY -In my humble opinion – do it at YOUR OWN risk!

        Mar 12, 2012 12:10 PM

        “but if you do not look to history expect to be surprised.” BTW, I am a huge fan of history, but only from a MACRO point of view,i.e. repeated fiat currency collapses, etc. but encapsulated in the particular era we find ourselves in. For example, comparing the collapse of Roman Empire vs the USA is only appropriate from a general degree. However, comparing and drawing specific conclusions between the two empires is iffy and very speculatory. Gold and silver are going up – but that’s all I can say. But saying what gold and silver is exactly going to do based on 1970’s “behavior/trends……..?..Finally, this is NOT a fear based comment (50% decline) but opinion based on your above comments.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:37 PM

    Every now and then, especially when things are not going entirely my way, I step back and ask myself why I’m so big in the PM market, as it really gives me the willies sometimes. Years ago, when I got started, I read that every investor in gold had to recognize you’re up against the most powerful forces in the world (gov’ts and central banks), so don’t expect this to be easy. And that’s the way it is . If it’s too hot, get out of the kitchen. The “saving grace”, if you can call it that, is that gov’ts everywhere are broke, and central banks print money out of thin air for as long as they can get away with it. So what do you trust more: bankrupt gov’ts and magicians or real indestructible money, ie gold? That’s how I keep myself sane and in the game.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:56 PM

      P.S. Within living memory, virtually nobody can remember using gold or silver for everyday transactions, only paper. Keep in mind also, that the very hardest thing for most people to do is change; we’ll do almost anything to avoid change. So even though intellectually we can easily comprehend that fiat currencies shouldn’t stand a chance against gold, in practise we find it very hard to change our own ingrained habit of paper money, and we probably won’t make that change until fiat currencies worldwide crash and burn.

        Mar 12, 2012 12:18 PM

        Arnie, guess I am nobody I recall clear as a silver bell useing silver in everyday transactions up to 1968 in canada, then it took years to replace the silver.
        Still some around if you keep your eyes open and your lucky.

        Mar 13, 2012 13:29 AM

        HI again Arnie D,

        Our ingrained habit of using paper money makes all the sense in the world if that paper money is asset based.

        Big Al

      Mar 12, 2012 12:55 PM

      Arnie D,
      That, my friend, is pretty much the logic in a NUT SHELL! Good job! Holding cash is only necessary for short-term trades, six to one year expenses and/or an emergency fund. Thats it – end of story!

      Mar 13, 2012 13:28 AM

      Morning Arnie D,

      You very concisely and accurately described my reasons for being in this game. And, I have been in this game for quite some time now.

      Thank you,

      Big Al

      May 08, 2012 08:52 PM

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    Mar 12, 2012 12:49 PM

    ARNIE……..that all makes sense to me.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:12 PM

    50% of world gold demand is jewelry. 50% of that goes to India. Please please please chart ICN (the India money market rupee etf) versus gold over the last 6 months.

    It might be against certain political and economic dogmas that you keep running into in the goldbug world, but it certainly looks like India is the key to gold price.

      Mar 12, 2012 12:03 PM

      IF China and India were not in the macro picture….my gold and silver positions would be half what they are now…..they are HUGE in the fundamental long term play on silver and Gold. I throw China in there too because any positive you can throw at India also includes China!

      Mar 13, 2012 13:52 AM

      The question Mr. Never is, do you feel that demand for India is the main driving factor?


      Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:27 PM

    Sorry everyone, just simply ran out of steam.

    Back with all you great people in the morning!

    Don’t get this cold/flu!

    Big Al

      Mar 13, 2012 13:01 AM

      Big Al,
      Trust you get feeling better soon. My wife has had this sinus junk for about 3 weeks and is just now starting to make some real headway. A little brandy with some honey and lemon before bed makes a nice ‘hot-tottie’.

        Mar 13, 2012 13:54 AM

        HI Mr. C,

        Thanks for the advice.

        I simply went to bed early last night and slept for about ten hours.

        Man, still feeling kind of poorly.

        Oh well, there is no rest for the wicked!

        Big Al

    Mar 12, 2012 12:43 PM

    Being able to keep your head when all around are loosing theirs, that is the question. The mind loves to play tricks.

    Mar 12, 2012 12:42 PM

    Thanks Dan,

    I have been doing my own investing since 2003 and have more then tripled my Account. I only started reading and listening to so called EXPERTS in the last 18 months. Mining stocks are hot potatoes and are not worth holding long term, buy low sell high. Ex: SVL Ran to 3.17…too fast. I Sold at 3.15 and bought Back at 2.40. Ok Ran to 2.46 today may will run a little higher but it is close to a top and a sell… it will pull back, These experts make it sound like if you don’t get in right away your going to miss the SUPER BULL RUN TO THE the tech stocks in 2000. We are nowhere near that PHASE and if you don’t sell your profits you just ride them up and back down, and then get stuck with them on a crash like fall 2008, fall 2010 or the slow drop since May 2011… I am going back to my system which I stopped following when I let the influence of reading and hearing all these experts, John Embry, Morris Hubbart and James Turk Included, calling for Huge runups ANY DAY NOW. Latest one James Turk 68-70 silver in 2-3 months, with undervalued mining stocks to really start to go… MAYBE… but in my opinion just a GUESS, Sell your profits and the next pullback buy again…best system. I’m no expert..don’t have a web sight and get frustrated with so called experts and all there predictions ..which when don’t happen…OH ANOTHER CORRECTION…just buy more…that will cover your loss. ..Oh but we don’t give investment advice..and you thnk all your daily radio shows and insights don’t influence people…COME ON…so I’m giving you the Other side.


      Mar 13, 2012 13:24 AM

      Your silver price predictions may end up being the most accurate on this site. I was almost wiped out in 2008 and am much more careful that my bullish tendencies don’t get out of hand but so are many other people. Thus we get this ridiculous bouncing around because everyone wants to jump out of the market before the next crash but want to stay in for a possible breakout. That sounds like the “wall of worry” that bull markets climb. I try to trade using MACD and RSI but am usually at a loss as to where this circus is heading. The negative ETFs help cause the swings also but I have not had the best of fortune with them and can’t sleep well at night if I hold them overnight. This will pass soon though.

      I think short sellers target sites like this to get ideas of stocks to short. PEM might be that next stock so be careful out there. It is my money so mea culpa.


      Mar 13, 2012 13:36 AM

      Volume on the TSX.V was low on the last few drops. Maybe from the margin calls coming in or nervousness over carrying margin when the “Merkel Effect” can send things all over the place. (I don’t use margin)



      Mar 13, 2012 13:07 AM

      Hi Reo,
      I think your assumptions are too generalized. You say, “These experts make it sound like if you don’t get in right away your going to miss the SUPER BULL RUN TO THE MOON..” I too, listen to many experts, and what I find is that they don’t all agree. In fact there are many different opinions, among the EXPERTS as to trend, time frames, short term moves, longer term trends, etc, etc, I don’t find a consensus among the EXPERTS, except perhaps that the overall, longterm trend is up for pms. So, I don’t believ your assertion that all the EXPERTS

        Mar 13, 2012 13:11 AM

        …SORRY. Wasn’t finished and it just got sent automatically. That was wierd.
        “So, I don’t believ your assertion that all the EXPERTS” are walking in lockstep is accurate. It’s obvious you’re miffed about something, maybe a poor decision to buy, bad timing, whatever. Stop blaming other people for your mistakes. The sooner you take ownership for your decisions, the sooner you will grow and get smarter. This whining is very unbecoming. Will you now respond????

        Mar 13, 2012 13:59 AM

        Very true and very important to note.

          Mar 13, 2012 13:04 AM

          The above comment is in regard to your first paragraph. Reo might be miffed, but the only way PM’s can be played without “losing it” is long term with a eye on the macro fundamentals changing – if ever…Then, in my humble opinion, the best way to get out is to step out in increments – like how most of us got in.

            Mar 13, 2012 13:40 PM

            Marc…c hero…Let me ad.. ….Short term trading and long term investing ,
            are two different games…
            if you do not understand both, you will have a problem in this market…

            Mar 13, 2012 13:22 PM

            Absolutely correct and the only way I play. I couldn’t take the short term volatility and sleep at night.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:55 AM

      Believe it or not Reo,

      You and I have very similar investment philosophies.

      I, for one, appreciate your input.

      Big Al

        Mar 13, 2012 13:59 AM

        Need to elaborate a bit on my comment.

        First of all, I am never “all in” in a particular sector. I am a firm believer in diversification.

        Second. I bet on people when it comes to companies that I invest in and so far that has treated me very well.

        Third. I purchase and keep a certain amount of precious metals as insurance and for absolutely no other reason.

        Fourth. I always take political, global economic conditions and certainly domestic economic conditions into effect in all of my investing actions.


        Big Al

    Mar 13, 2012 13:13 AM

    REO………..My advice to you is, yes listen to the so called experts, but DONT take their word as gospel. If you have a system that works for you…STICK WITH IT…….Why try to fix something that’s not broken !

      Mar 13, 2012 13:48 AM

      does reo ever reply….or is he one of those hit and run guys

      Mar 13, 2012 13:00 AM

      Mr. Irish,

      You, my friend, are smart.

      Big Al

    Mar 13, 2012 13:27 AM

    Never accept,
    I love your handle.
    India and most of Asia that I have lived in use gold as money now.
    Before Britain crashed the silver markets to institute their fiat on the world India and China both used silver as a currency and store of wealth.
    Here in Indonesia where I live the gold merchants have just started supplying their customers with small gold bars,it is all jewellery.
    Asians use it as a store of wealth.
    I suspect that trend is changing.

    never accept the terms of service says:
    50% of world gold demand is jewelry. 50% of that goes to India. Please please please chart ICN (the India money market rupee etf) versus gold over the last 6 months.
    It might be against certain political and economic dogmas that you keep running into in the goldbug world, but it certainly looks like India is the key to gold price.

    Mar 13, 2012 13:05 AM

    Not Hit and Run jerry…Profit and Run..before the next down trend….like today

      Mar 13, 2012 13:01 AM

      You mean the down trend that we discussed yesterday!

      Big Al

      Mar 13, 2012 13:48 PM

      thanks for the reply,,,now we know you read our output…
      hope you make alot of money….don’t forget the short term
      gains…for your tax return…obammy needs your money…
      plus I am going to need my retirement money , and we need
      all the help we can get….(he, he, ha, ha, * irish told me to put that in)

    Mar 13, 2012 13:00 AM

    HI REO……..PROFIT & RUN……..sounds good to me, if this is what you are doing & you are ahead………Then you dont need anybodys advice. If you have a game plan for making money, in this corrupt game then perhaps you are the one who should be giving out advice .

      Mar 13, 2012 13:02 AM

      Morning Reo,

      I, for one, really appreciate your comments. Please keep them coming our way!


      Big Al

        Mar 13, 2012 13:50 PM

        ditto…..micro…is always important… fulfills the a,b,c,d, e short term wave pattern

    Mar 13, 2012 13:40 AM

    AL …DITTO………..I just love the banter………its healthy.

      Mar 13, 2012 13:18 PM

      Hey guys,
      Believe it or not, I can agree with all of you, including some comments by Reo. And BTW Reo, we love to get more people involved here. Don’t be put off by our ‘banter’ with you. We are equally tough, if not tougher on each other. We welcome you to join in. We have a great time and all learn from each other.

        Mar 13, 2012 13:43 PM


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