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Monday and The Doctor Is In

Big Al
April 1, 2013

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Discussion
102 Comments
    Apr 01, 2013 01:31 AM

    3 weeks. Come back in 3 weeks , you don’t forget OK.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:06 PM

      …Said the socialist for Patty Murray.
      You know FA, in three weeks the technicals might point to three more. Do you expect Doc to wave a magic wand, or to report on what his analysis shows?

        Apr 01, 2013 01:16 PM

        Thanks, Matthew. I don’t make outlandish predictions; I just state what TA is saying and often what your odds are. Right now odds are silver challenges the 2 important technical support areas I mentioned. If you want to hold my feet to the fire, I’ll say we have a good chance silver holds and then continues it’s basing pattern into the fall. I’ve said all along I didn’t expect the PMs to aggressively move higher until possibly the fall. I continue to hold to that view based on the TA—If things change, I’ll say it—-your right; I don’t use wishful thinking in using TA—to me that would be dishonest especially to those listening to me and reading my posts.

          Apr 01, 2013 01:56 PM

          Thanks Doc,

          Big Al

        Apr 01, 2013 01:54 PM

        Thanks Matthew,

        Very good point as this world is certainly not static!

        Big Al

      Apr 01, 2013 01:53 PM

      Fred,

      We will not forget!

      Big Al

      Apr 01, 2013 01:57 PM

      Thanks CFS,

      Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:52 AM

    HUI new high >638.59 Feb 12, 2014
    That’s +81% from today.
    http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen033013.pdf

    You can’t get any more specific than that.

    Never mind; it’s April 1st 🙁

      Apr 01, 2013 01:09 PM

      Whether we see one more dip this month or not, I believe Mr. Rosen will be dead on with that call.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:19 PM

        I hope you’re both right.

        I’m not buying any more stocks … not selling any either. Only buying something I can bite but not chew.

        Will be interesting to see when/if “Big Gold” (Casey Research) change from “hold” to “buy”.

          Apr 01, 2013 01:40 PM

          I like Casey Research more for their research, not timing. In ’09, I bought everything I could while they advised waiting. I was selling XRA and THM (among others) at great profits just as they finally started to recommend them.
          I think newsletter writers have learned that their subscribers don’t get as angry when they’re conservative and wrong vs. aggressive and wrong. The better newsletters (in my opinion) focus less on timing or “how to play it” for this reason. Strategy should be a topic for separate letter.

            Apr 01, 2013 01:00 PM

            Very good point, Matthew

            BigAl

          Apr 01, 2013 01:59 PM

          Any bets, Irwin?

          Big Al

            Apr 02, 2013 02:47 AM

            I placed another bet this morning (Apr 2) Big Al.

            Bought some more G & S

    Apr 01, 2013 01:03 PM

    Irwin, it’s only a matter of time for gold. It’s held in there very well considering the tremendous bearish attitudes out there. I imagine for those buying physical gold it’s a great time over the spring to be dollar cost averaging into the metal.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:04 PM

      Just a caveat; my comments today weren’t made in deference to April 1.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

        Haha! good thing to mention that today Richard.

        Everything I read today, I’m taking with extra grains of salt.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

        Thanks, DOC. Hang in there, Irish. Silver WILL HAVE ITS DAY…big time. There is NO doubt in my little, feeble mind. How it that for a vote of confidence! 🙂

          Apr 01, 2013 01:12 PM

          There’s no doubt in my LFM either!

          Apr 01, 2013 01:36 PM

          Oh i’m hanging in , marc , as i stated many moons ago i’m in for the long haul , i still buy every month, its the way i save , i have never been a mug to make bankers richer.

          Apr 01, 2013 01:05 PM

          Marc,

          What’s this garbage about a feeble mind!

          Big Al

      Apr 01, 2013 01:32 PM

      Richard…i agree , Re cost average ..PS DON’T over look Silver.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:06 PM

        Irish,

        Who is overlooking silver?

        BigAl

    Apr 01, 2013 01:07 PM

    I agree with Richard on the potential for euro strength.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:06 PM

      I actually do too ,Matthew

      Big Al

      Apr 01, 2013 01:36 PM

      CSF; interesting stuff—-now one can probably understand why Todd-Frank allowed “too big to fail” to become “too bigger to fail”.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:29 PM

    Thanks for the input Doc!

      Apr 01, 2013 01:32 PM

      Mark, how have you been? Hope everything is well with you. Good to know you’re around.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:38 PM

        Yeah….Welcome back MARK……Hugs & Kisses………haha

          Apr 01, 2013 01:18 PM

          Ditto…Irish…DITTO…ha, ha and HA!

          Apr 01, 2013 01:08 PM

          Shades of Viva Las Vegas, Irish!

          Big Al

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:38 PM
      Apr 01, 2013 01:09 PM

      I am invested CFS!

      Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:53 PM

    Long term it is more constructive to look at supply/demand rather than price.
    1) What are the mining production/resource/ recycling #s for the metal being considered.
    2) Where are the ounces going….. sock drawers, gold teeth, vaults, solar panels, catalytic converters……….
    3) What is the monetary supply chasing the ounces.

    I think we may spend too much time looking at relatively meaningless price charts when we are making longer term decisions.
    What does it tell you when spot goes down and premiums go up.
    We tend to let the spot tail wag the dog.

    Let us analyze the spot price measuring units more often!

    When you are making a long term decision with monetary mayhem in full tilt….. spot price should not dictate timing. It should only dictate home many ounces you take home that day. Who cares it might go this way ….it might go that way….it might go sideways….metal up!! Take lower prices as a discount.
    By paying too much attention to spot we give the paper pushers to much control.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:19 PM

      Dennis, excellent missive!

      Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

      Dennis…They are my sentiments , supply & demand, that’s what will propel the price of the PM’s higher …IMO… TA wont matter…. Fundamental’s Will……………..
      People forget spot….”they” can manipulate that…..focus on supply & demand.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:55 PM

        Irish….you succinctly summarized my point.

        Buy the metal!!!!!

        BTW Irish….why do the bubbles in Guinness descend?

          Apr 01, 2013 01:25 PM

          Dennis…..cant tell you that……Irish trade secret……Every child in Ireland at the age of 10 must take an oath “NEVER” to disclose the secret of GUINNESS…..& we stick to it..
          Unlike the Politicians in the US who swear to uphold the CONSTITUTION.

            Apr 01, 2013 01:55 PM

            Look to the horizon and bring the beverage to you.

        Apr 01, 2013 01:11 PM

        I agree with Marc!

        Big Al

        Apr 01, 2013 01:12 PM

        No, but it is an important consideration!

        Big Al

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:06 PM
    Apr 01, 2013 01:20 PM

    Hey, CFS!
    I resemble that remark…. 🙂

    Apr 01, 2013 01:52 PM

    We’re getting to the point where the COT is looking extremely positive for silver; the large speculator net long ratio has fallen to a remarkably bullish 1.44:1 and the commercial net short ratio back to an extremely bullish 1.43:1. With the ongoing drop of silver this week, the report for this coming Tuesday should be all the more positive. I’m not an investment adviser but I plan to buy some silver paper investments when the price of silver approaches $27.00. It’s rare for an asset that has been in a prolonged bull market to go through major support like butter on the first try. If the position goes through $27.00 and closes twice below the 200 week MA, I’ll sell my position limiting my losses. When we hit close to $27.00 silver we’ll be very oversold on the daily charts. In fact we’re there already with today’s move—it’s just how oversold we’ll be.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:15 PM

      Man, Doc, I gotta learn about this stuff!

      Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:27 PM

    North Korea threatens US, Gold cannot stay above $1600.00. What’s up with that.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:29 PM

      Bobby……They did not threaten HSBC!!!!

        Apr 01, 2013 01:58 PM

        Irish,
        HAA!!!

      Apr 01, 2013 01:18 PM

      Not a verified serious threat at this point. No atmospheric evidence found by the South Koreans or the Japanese who has planes up looking for it.

      Big Al

        Apr 02, 2013 02:50 AM

        Thanks Al, keep an eye out and let me know when the rocket is coming to Florida.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:30 PM

    Btw most of the major gold stocks got hammered today. Silver clobbered!!!!

    6mts HUI, does not look good at all!
    http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/hui0182.html

      Apr 01, 2013 01:32 PM

      Bobby….Silver got clobbered because no one bought JAMMIE an Easter egg………
      So he threw a hissy fit….

      Apr 01, 2013 01:20 PM

      I noticed that and did comment to that effect.
      Big Al

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:46 PM

    RSI on weekly $HUI chart is at 28.8 indicating an up-move likely within a couple of weeks,

      Apr 01, 2013 01:38 PM

      Agree, the $HUI chart is looking very positive.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:56 PM

    More Jim Willie, a 42 minute interview on tfmetals.
    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4611/tfmr-podcast-43-jim-willie-returns

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:09 PM

    GLD gold holdings reduced 0.34% today. People are selling out!

      Apr 01, 2013 01:22 PM

      I am not sure that I would come to that conclusion quite yet, CFS.

      Big Al

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:05 PM

    Here are the terms under which Cyprus was bailed-in.
    Read it and Weep Cypriots.
    http://mignatiou.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EU_DraftMemorandumforCyprus-01APRIL20131.pdf

    Austerity + higher taxes imposed!

      CFS
      Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

      Sorry the document is hard to read. If you are interested you might want to download and save. I don’t know how long it will be on that website, since it was not supposed to be put there.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:06 PM

    Thanks again Doc.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:22 PM

    Chris Martsenson interviews David Stockman on March 30, 2013.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zi1g_PmtQHA#!

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:37 PM

    Photographer with 2 years of greek riots calls Cyprus a hotbed……of……
    rest!.
    http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/2013/04/01/cyprus-its-all-greek-to-me/

      Apr 01, 2013 01:23 PM

      A hotbed of rest?

      Big Al

        CFS
        Apr 01, 2013 01:37 PM

        Yes, the photographer was expecting protests and riots and did not understand why the Cypriots were just taking the loss without protesting.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

      cfs….Big Al made a wise move a few days ago by buying PL….Hat tip to you AL..

        Apr 01, 2013 01:24 PM

        Thank you.

        Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:05 PM

    cfs….I worked for FRESHFIELD’S many years ago , i am sure you know who i am talking about…..They handled many of the legal contract’s that went tru Coutt’s…..We are talking the Royal family here & all of the big money in the UK…….Coutts will not allow their client’s to take a haircut…….those who do will have the full backing of FRESHFIELD’S though the courts…….They rarely lose. What do you think ?

      CFS
      Apr 01, 2013 01:24 PM

      I imagine Coutts are smart enough not to by UK bonds, or French or Spanish, so I don’t think they will have a problem. Although in the dim recesses of my memory, I seem to recall they did have rogue trader a few ytears ago.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:10 PM

    The dollar looks to be weakening. MACD and RSI on the day chart are moving down. The index is again crossing down and over the mid line in the bollinger just like it was before the Cyprus fiasco and the bands appear to be squeezing. The euro appears to be bottoming with some oversold character.

    BRICS news about forming a new International Bank on lines to compete with the IMF and World Bank for international trade is dollar negative to say the least, but might not be Euro negative. This news going forward in next week or two will be dollar negative which is likely to give significant support to gold. As gold begins to rise suggestively this week and more definitively next week, silver will begin moving up despite today’s and last weeks weakness.

    Platinum is showing all signs of moving up for sustained price rise and often precedes similar move up in gold. April is likely to be a better month for the PM’s than what people have been saying.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:27 PM

      Clay,

      All valid points in my mind.

      Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:40 PM

    clay……The BRIICS are the place to go to , word is the UK are going to kick the US up the ass , & trow in their lot with the BRIICS………Watch what the “CITY” is doing.

      Apr 01, 2013 01:45 PM

      BTW……..Watch what Europe does , if they follow the UK, & the “CITY”…….America could be standing alone……………Just the thoughts of a deranged Irish Fella.

    Apr 01, 2013 01:48 PM

    Metals go up metals go down. They are just as shiny today as yesterday, and its fair to say they will be shiney tomorrow. I’m a buyer if I can Afford to gamble. Im a seller if i need it to eat. Dry powder ready! im just going to keep stacking under 28.50$ and hope for the best because to much noise can destroy your hearing, balance, and subsequently your reaction time. Great reports lately Al keep up the good work!

      Apr 01, 2013 01:29 PM

      Serious thanks Master Mason!

      Big Al

    Apr 01, 2013 01:27 PM

    MM…..Stick with your own belief’s , the noise will only confuse , listen to everyone, then use your brain to filter out the bad….then at the end of the day if you make a bad decision you only have yourself to blame , & that is the best way to learn the lessons of life……..Good luck young man…….Tip…watch out for forgeries if you are buying physical.

      Apr 02, 2013 02:28 PM

      Thanks! I’ve focused mostly on rolls of silver eagles..
      They have become my favorite by far. Fortunately I have a well trusted local coin shop nearby. 3$ over spot always mint rolls. I Wish everyone came together to buy. We’d burn the shorts

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:07 PM

    Goldman Sachs to start up a new division. Its a bank, but to avoid the Volker Rule it is called a development company.
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323296504578396572960905436.html?mod=djemalertMARKET

    CFS
    Apr 01, 2013 01:53 PM

    Could this advertisement appear on Spanish TV?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=92vp2fUqOPc

    Apr 01, 2013 01:03 PM

    Al:

    Like you, I’m more much more intuitive than than the TA folks although TA is indeed helpful. TA seems to be more short range in progostications than the 1-3 year range that I am involved in with my views.

    AU vis a vis AG? If things get tough which i believe it will, much easier to get change in AG when I will be going grocery shopping…probably less danger also of confiscation. Just my humble opinion as always. Today a 57 to 1 ratio which to me, makes absolutely no sense.

    In the crazy Irishman, Sprott and Morgan I trust….well…the Good Lord as well……

      har
      Apr 02, 2013 02:24 AM

      More deflation.

    har
    Apr 02, 2013 02:24 AM

    Good thing they can’t knock gold down.

    Oh wait….

    Apr 02, 2013 02:42 AM

    Ugh! I am looking for a bottom to gold this “go away in May’ season to purchase options. This idea could change on an uncirculated penny but the direction is down for now.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02/banro-leading-miners-in-worst-drop-since-1990.html

    Dan

    Apr 02, 2013 02:52 AM

    CFS’s call on PDL is still working even after this take down today.

    Dan

    Apr 02, 2013 02:54 AM

    Well, I am puking in the wastebasket today.

      har
      Apr 02, 2013 02:14 AM

      Should of went short when Big Al was reading that the PM charts were bullish.

    Apr 02, 2013 02:29 AM

    IMHO the Gold / Silver ratio will top out in April. RSI is moving into overbought territory but price just broke above the top channel line. Any thoughts?

    Dan

      har
      Apr 02, 2013 02:44 AM

      Catching a falling knife is less painful.

        Apr 02, 2013 02:52 AM

        I guess it is almost time to go to a costume shop and grab some chain-mail gloves.

        Dan

      Apr 02, 2013 02:55 AM

      I have to agree with you. I wish the gold price would finally dip below the 34 month ma at 1569. It was touched in Feb. and March, but not taken out on the downside. The correction of 2008 ended with a move below it. It’s interesting that while the 34 mma has been support, the more widely followed 30 mma has been resistance lately at 1609.
      We need a monthly close above 1680 to put the bulls in control of the short, mid, and long term (my opinion of course).

    Apr 02, 2013 02:58 AM

    NOX is looking perky again, my largest holding for the moment.

    Dan

      Apr 02, 2013 02:22 AM

      I moved too slowly the day it went to .165 and didn’t pick up any more, but I’ll be ready if it dips again!
      It doesn’t take many sellers to crush these things and I have many that are far less liquid that NOX!