Monday and The Doctor Is In
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…Said the socialist for Patty Murray.
You know FA, in three weeks the technicals might point to three more. Do you expect Doc to wave a magic wand, or to report on what his analysis shows?
Thanks, Matthew. I don’t make outlandish predictions; I just state what TA is saying and often what your odds are. Right now odds are silver challenges the 2 important technical support areas I mentioned. If you want to hold my feet to the fire, I’ll say we have a good chance silver holds and then continues it’s basing pattern into the fall. I’ve said all along I didn’t expect the PMs to aggressively move higher until possibly the fall. I continue to hold to that view based on the TA—If things change, I’ll say it—-your right; I don’t use wishful thinking in using TA—to me that would be dishonest especially to those listening to me and reading my posts.
Thanks Doc,
Big Al
Thanks Matthew,
Very good point as this world is certainly not static!
Big Al
Fred,
We will not forget!
Big Al
Thanks CFS,
Big Al
HUI new high >638.59 Feb 12, 2014
That’s +81% from today.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen033013.pdf
You can’t get any more specific than that.
Never mind; it’s April 1st 🙁
Whether we see one more dip this month or not, I believe Mr. Rosen will be dead on with that call.
I hope you’re both right.
I’m not buying any more stocks … not selling any either. Only buying something I can bite but not chew.
Will be interesting to see when/if “Big Gold” (Casey Research) change from “hold” to “buy”.
I like Casey Research more for their research, not timing. In ’09, I bought everything I could while they advised waiting. I was selling XRA and THM (among others) at great profits just as they finally started to recommend them.
I think newsletter writers have learned that their subscribers don’t get as angry when they’re conservative and wrong vs. aggressive and wrong. The better newsletters (in my opinion) focus less on timing or “how to play it” for this reason. Strategy should be a topic for separate letter.
Very good point, Matthew
BigAl
Any bets, Irwin?
Big Al
I placed another bet this morning (Apr 2) Big Al.
Bought some more G & S
Irwin, it’s only a matter of time for gold. It’s held in there very well considering the tremendous bearish attitudes out there. I imagine for those buying physical gold it’s a great time over the spring to be dollar cost averaging into the metal.
Just a caveat; my comments today weren’t made in deference to April 1.
Haha! good thing to mention that today Richard.
Everything I read today, I’m taking with extra grains of salt.
Thanks, DOC. Hang in there, Irish. Silver WILL HAVE ITS DAY…big time. There is NO doubt in my little, feeble mind. How it that for a vote of confidence! 🙂
There’s no doubt in my LFM either!
Oh i’m hanging in , marc , as i stated many moons ago i’m in for the long haul , i still buy every month, its the way i save , i have never been a mug to make bankers richer.
Marc,
What’s this garbage about a feeble mind!
Big Al
Richard…i agree , Re cost average ..PS DON’T over look Silver.
Irish,
Who is overlooking silver?
BigAl
I agree with Richard on the potential for euro strength.
I actually do too ,Matthew
Big Al
CSF; interesting stuff—-now one can probably understand why Todd-Frank allowed “too big to fail” to become “too bigger to fail”.
Thanks for the input Doc!
Mark, how have you been? Hope everything is well with you. Good to know you’re around.
Yeah….Welcome back MARK……Hugs & Kisses………haha
Ditto…Irish…DITTO…ha, ha and HA!
Shades of Viva Las Vegas, Irish!
Big Al
This why one should be invested right now, not when the up-trend is in:
I am invested CFS!
Big Al
Long term it is more constructive to look at supply/demand rather than price.
1) What are the mining production/resource/ recycling #s for the metal being considered.
2) Where are the ounces going….. sock drawers, gold teeth, vaults, solar panels, catalytic converters……….
3) What is the monetary supply chasing the ounces.
I think we may spend too much time looking at relatively meaningless price charts when we are making longer term decisions.
What does it tell you when spot goes down and premiums go up.
We tend to let the spot tail wag the dog.
Let us analyze the spot price measuring units more often!
When you are making a long term decision with monetary mayhem in full tilt….. spot price should not dictate timing. It should only dictate home many ounces you take home that day. Who cares it might go this way ….it might go that way….it might go sideways….metal up!! Take lower prices as a discount.
By paying too much attention to spot we give the paper pushers to much control.
Dennis, excellent missive!
Dennis…They are my sentiments , supply & demand, that’s what will propel the price of the PM’s higher …IMO… TA wont matter…. Fundamental’s Will……………..
People forget spot….”they” can manipulate that…..focus on supply & demand.
Irish….you succinctly summarized my point.
Buy the metal!!!!!
BTW Irish….why do the bubbles in Guinness descend?
Dennis…..cant tell you that……Irish trade secret……Every child in Ireland at the age of 10 must take an oath “NEVER” to disclose the secret of GUINNESS…..& we stick to it..
Unlike the Politicians in the US who swear to uphold the CONSTITUTION.
Look to the horizon and bring the beverage to you.
I agree with Marc!
Big Al
No, but it is an important consideration!
Big Al
Ah. The left coast. Save us all from Moonbeams,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-31/broke-california-unveils-fish-saving-boondoggle.html
Hey, CFS!
I resemble that remark…. 🙂
We’re getting to the point where the COT is looking extremely positive for silver; the large speculator net long ratio has fallen to a remarkably bullish 1.44:1 and the commercial net short ratio back to an extremely bullish 1.43:1. With the ongoing drop of silver this week, the report for this coming Tuesday should be all the more positive. I’m not an investment adviser but I plan to buy some silver paper investments when the price of silver approaches $27.00. It’s rare for an asset that has been in a prolonged bull market to go through major support like butter on the first try. If the position goes through $27.00 and closes twice below the 200 week MA, I’ll sell my position limiting my losses. When we hit close to $27.00 silver we’ll be very oversold on the daily charts. In fact we’re there already with today’s move—it’s just how oversold we’ll be.
Man, Doc, I gotta learn about this stuff!
Big Al
North Korea threatens US, Gold cannot stay above $1600.00. What’s up with that.
Bobby……They did not threaten HSBC!!!!
Irish,
HAA!!!
Not a verified serious threat at this point. No atmospheric evidence found by the South Koreans or the Japanese who has planes up looking for it.
Big Al
Thanks Al, keep an eye out and let me know when the rocket is coming to Florida.
Btw most of the major gold stocks got hammered today. Silver clobbered!!!!
6mts HUI, does not look good at all!
http://www.kitco.com/charts/popup/hui0182.html
Bobby….Silver got clobbered because no one bought JAMMIE an Easter egg………
So he threw a hissy fit….
I noticed that and did comment to that effect.
Big Al
RSI on weekly $HUI chart is at 28.8 indicating an up-move likely within a couple of weeks,
Agree, the $HUI chart is looking very positive.
More Jim Willie, a 42 minute interview on tfmetals.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/4611/tfmr-podcast-43-jim-willie-returns
GLD gold holdings reduced 0.34% today. People are selling out!
I am not sure that I would come to that conclusion quite yet, CFS.
Big Al
Here are the terms under which Cyprus was bailed-in.
Read it and Weep Cypriots.
http://mignatiou.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/EU_DraftMemorandumforCyprus-01APRIL20131.pdf
Austerity + higher taxes imposed!
Sorry the document is hard to read. If you are interested you might want to download and save. I don’t know how long it will be on that website, since it was not supposed to be put there.
Thanks again Doc.
Chris Martsenson interviews David Stockman on March 30, 2013.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Zi1g_PmtQHA#!
Photographer with 2 years of greek riots calls Cyprus a hotbed……of……
rest!.
http://blogs.reuters.com/photographers-blog/2013/04/01/cyprus-its-all-greek-to-me/
A hotbed of rest?
Big Al
Yes, the photographer was expecting protests and riots and did not understand why the Cypriots were just taking the loss without protesting.
Irish,
Coutts warns against high interest earnings:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9965629/Coutts-warns-clients-of-threat-from-debt-markets-amid-bubble-fears.html
cfs….Big Al made a wise move a few days ago by buying PL….Hat tip to you AL..
Thank you.
Big Al
cfs….I worked for FRESHFIELD’S many years ago , i am sure you know who i am talking about…..They handled many of the legal contract’s that went tru Coutt’s…..We are talking the Royal family here & all of the big money in the UK…….Coutts will not allow their client’s to take a haircut…….those who do will have the full backing of FRESHFIELD’S though the courts…….They rarely lose. What do you think ?
I imagine Coutts are smart enough not to by UK bonds, or French or Spanish, so I don’t think they will have a problem. Although in the dim recesses of my memory, I seem to recall they did have rogue trader a few ytears ago.
The dollar looks to be weakening. MACD and RSI on the day chart are moving down. The index is again crossing down and over the mid line in the bollinger just like it was before the Cyprus fiasco and the bands appear to be squeezing. The euro appears to be bottoming with some oversold character.
BRICS news about forming a new International Bank on lines to compete with the IMF and World Bank for international trade is dollar negative to say the least, but might not be Euro negative. This news going forward in next week or two will be dollar negative which is likely to give significant support to gold. As gold begins to rise suggestively this week and more definitively next week, silver will begin moving up despite today’s and last weeks weakness.
Platinum is showing all signs of moving up for sustained price rise and often precedes similar move up in gold. April is likely to be a better month for the PM’s than what people have been saying.
Clay,
All valid points in my mind.
Big Al
clay……The BRIICS are the place to go to , word is the UK are going to kick the US up the ass , & trow in their lot with the BRIICS………Watch what the “CITY” is doing.
BTW……..Watch what Europe does , if they follow the UK, & the “CITY”…….America could be standing alone……………Just the thoughts of a deranged Irish Fella.
Metals go up metals go down. They are just as shiny today as yesterday, and its fair to say they will be shiney tomorrow. I’m a buyer if I can Afford to gamble. Im a seller if i need it to eat. Dry powder ready! im just going to keep stacking under 28.50$ and hope for the best because to much noise can destroy your hearing, balance, and subsequently your reaction time. Great reports lately Al keep up the good work!
Serious thanks Master Mason!
Big Al
MM…..Stick with your own belief’s , the noise will only confuse , listen to everyone, then use your brain to filter out the bad….then at the end of the day if you make a bad decision you only have yourself to blame , & that is the best way to learn the lessons of life……..Good luck young man…….Tip…watch out for forgeries if you are buying physical.
Thanks! I’ve focused mostly on rolls of silver eagles..
They have become my favorite by far. Fortunately I have a well trusted local coin shop nearby. 3$ over spot always mint rolls. I Wish everyone came together to buy. We’d burn the shorts
Goldman Sachs to start up a new division. Its a bank, but to avoid the Volker Rule it is called a development company.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323296504578396572960905436.html?mod=djemalertMARKET
Could this advertisement appear on Spanish TV?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=92vp2fUqOPc
Al:
Like you, I’m more much more intuitive than than the TA folks although TA is indeed helpful. TA seems to be more short range in progostications than the 1-3 year range that I am involved in with my views.
AU vis a vis AG? If things get tough which i believe it will, much easier to get change in AG when I will be going grocery shopping…probably less danger also of confiscation. Just my humble opinion as always. Today a 57 to 1 ratio which to me, makes absolutely no sense.
In the crazy Irishman, Sprott and Morgan I trust….well…the Good Lord as well……
Amen to that, Dai Uly
Stockman tells it like it is:
http://moneytalks.net/state-wrecked-the-corruption-of-capitalism-in-america.html
More deflation.
Good thing they can’t knock gold down.
Oh wait….
Ugh! I am looking for a bottom to gold this “go away in May’ season to purchase options. This idea could change on an uncirculated penny but the direction is down for now.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-02/banro-leading-miners-in-worst-drop-since-1990.html
Dan
CFS’s call on PDL is still working even after this take down today.
Dan
Well, I am puking in the wastebasket today.
Should of went short when Big Al was reading that the PM charts were bullish.
IMHO the Gold / Silver ratio will top out in April. RSI is moving into overbought territory but price just broke above the top channel line. Any thoughts?
Dan
Catching a falling knife is less painful.
I guess it is almost time to go to a costume shop and grab some chain-mail gloves.
Dan
I have to agree with you. I wish the gold price would finally dip below the 34 month ma at 1569. It was touched in Feb. and March, but not taken out on the downside. The correction of 2008 ended with a move below it. It’s interesting that while the 34 mma has been support, the more widely followed 30 mma has been resistance lately at 1609.
We need a monthly close above 1680 to put the bulls in control of the short, mid, and long term (my opinion of course).
NOX is looking perky again, my largest holding for the moment.
Dan
I moved too slowly the day it went to .165 and didn’t pick up any more, but I’ll be ready if it dips again!
It doesn’t take many sellers to crush these things and I have many that are far less liquid that NOX!
3 weeks. Come back in 3 weeks , you don’t forget OK.