Wednesday and The Doctor Is In
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Can’t tell you what to do Jennifer. All I can tell you is what I do.
I often times wear a neck brace.
Best,
Big Al
Is the pain going down your arm and do you have numbess/tingling in your fingers. Do you have pain just to the middle of your scapula —If you don’t have any of those, it is in all likelihood positional and you need to do some home exercises periodically during the day. Now I’m going to do my caveat—-if it continues, see your friendly family physician since I’m not an investment adviser or your practicing physician.
I keep puking in the wastebasket everytime i pull up my brokerage account, what’s wrong with me Doc?
It’s probably a case of golditis—-the downside is you really can feel quite ill; the upside is it’s curable and you often feel better then when you first acquire it.
Thanks, doc, that helps.
Actually it is more likely gold equityitis, All my physical gold holdings are at least worth twice what i paid for them, the miners need a 10 bagger to break even.
Thanks for the input Doc!
Hey, Mark, the gold market is performing the way you thought and hoped. I believe you’re going to be right about your thoughts.
Well, its not about me being right, as much as it is about getting more physical at great prices, IF they are still available. Scaling in now still isn’t a bad idea. Gold and silver stocks are an avoid for me at this time, but that is just me. Thanks
The latest Telegraph comments on Gold from Ambrose.
Very interesting!!
That is a great article CSF. It makes a lot more sense in light of some other things. Almost anything written by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is worth reading. He is high quality journalism. Thanks for posting.
Ditto Mark and CFS
Very reassuring as always Al and Doc. Reassuring Al because like you I don”t believe yours or our government here are innately evil. That’s not to say the manipulators aren’t going crazy right now. Nor is it to say that most politicians are especially likeable – most are puppets and/or mouthpieces for endless spin.Nor is it to suggest that our captains of finance are lily white. ABSOLUTELY NOT! As some surveys seem to suggest psychopaths are three times more common in the world of banking and politics than in everyday society. But psuchopaths are fools in the long run and their evil invariably finds them out.
However as you and Doc imply the powers that be are simply terrified should the stock market and everything else go into meltdown. And despite the hugely vexacious fact that gold is going down when everything decrees that by rights it should be going stratospheric, perhaps the manipulators are doing their absolute darndest to contive how to bring some sort of artifical order in the midst of so much chaos.
For the good of everyone I’d be one who’d much prefer seeing gold make an orderly ascent from here or hereabouts.
Some may call me naive, which I readly concede I am. But let’s not overdo the conspiracy side of things.
Well put, Andrew.
Couldn’t agree more—-can you imagine the concern if we start to slide into a downturn in the conventional markets and the chaos that would entail. That rock and a hard place would get a lot tougher—-the question would be; what options are left?
At the risk of overstating the obvious: No legitimate investor would dump over a year supply of mined gold onto the market because they know they’d suffer a massive loss–estimated to be well over $1 trillion in loses. The only ‘thing’ that could absorb such a loss and survive is an entity which could cover its losses by printing money out of thin air–or pushing the make-money button on their computer.
At least it beats repeating “best looking horse in the glue factory”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/cleanest-dirty-shirt-or-greatest-fool
But actually, it is worth looking at!
Mark, I tend to agree with you. In my opinion tho anytime is gold buy time. Once a month for me. generally, as for shares….I dont know, doldrums have me concerned now even if there is no more selling of physical.
BenB
I think James Turk says it best: ‘”just continue to accumulate on an average basis that fits your income level. In the long run, you won’t be disappointed.” or something to that effect.
Yupper mark, I found that to be good advice, its what I tell people too.
Forget selling the house, just save money instead of currency. Once I explain the differance between money and currency they agree.
Funny interview the other day with my faverite, Mickey Fulp, he was saying he had no real sympathy for the gold bugs that invest in gold, he says its insurance not an investment.
I see it that way and consider my silver the gamble or investment however a person wants to look at it.
I’m confused with P.M. stocks continue to crash? With physical P.M.’s in short supply and the stocks have gold and silver in the ground should they not be going up?
Sandy be carefull, your talking about takeing the red pill. (Have I got the color right?)
Sandy,
Lots of writers predicting the demise of the gold miners, cost to produce less than price, poor management, etc. Some say as many as 90% of them will be gone. Not good news, I hope it does not happen, but newbees (hot money)are exiting the space.
Something interesting is happening in the VIX and the conventional markets. For the first time in a long time it appears as if fear is starting to seep into the conventional markets more then the past relative to the small downturn/sideways move we’re currently seeing. It appears the fear might now be leading the conventional markets.
Benb, I studied Homestake and Dome behavior in the thirties, and regardless of what some people have reported, they both went down with the crash. However, they were producers, and as costs went down and the price of gold was held at $35 they had large, annually increasing profits, when many other companies were going bankrupt. Eventually, with large and increasing dividends these stocks rose magnificantly.
Today we are seeing oil prices decline, so, and this is personal opinion only, if a company can survive to production or is in production, I believe we will eventually see substantial gains in those stocks. Oil represents typically about 30% of the cost of production. (Assuming all forms of energy approximately correlate in price over time)
CFS, good point—I’m thinking the same thing—in fact, Al and I discussed a possible thread for the future—-with production costs being what they are and the coming decimation of a considerable number of miners (not only juniors) it would make sense to develop some solid financial parameters to judge these companies by and then having a guest come on to list those companies meeting the criteria. The strong that survive should do phenomenally well in the future.
Richard, isnt that what you pay for those for? lol.
Are you trying to put them outta buisiness?
There are lists of good companies out there and in a few months there may not be so many to research to find them.
pay for the news letter and reports etc. was laughiing not at your idea but doing the work of “experts”
I do not like this news!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/chinas-animal-apocalypse-spreads-dogs
CFS,I agree 100%. and I would say profitable miners,cash flow, low or no debt, proven managment in safe geopolitical areas (am I missing anything?) is a darn smart, INVESTMENT. But even at that it is still a gamble(speculation) some call it risk, you get my meaning, I need to decide if I want miners or streamers and I may very well wait for the doldrums and see if there is any big selling out of europe before I buy again. not sure, I am a gambler and its real hard for me to not be all in. lol.
One of the most important measurements as you mention is debt/capitalization.
Your right Richard, could add that we need a few things off the list tho, but no debt is huge.
And thanks for all the input again, always enjoyed.
I don’t know what is happening in Boston anymore, but here is the live feed from the Federal Courthouse….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-17/boston-bombing-suspect-arrested
The Horizon Gold Bear (HGD) is at 88 on its RSI. It has gone parabolic.
165 Buys out of 3,532 TSX stocks on my info platform. Seems awfully close to a bottom. Talk about the “go away in May” front run! All IMHO only.
Dan
Richard – I am a little confused why you do not want to see a quick bounce back but would rather see another down leg. Why cant where we are now be the bottom? Curious to know your reasoning. Thanks
James, both the Dow/gold ratio and the gold market have a number of huge runaway gaps (continuous gaps). I’ve noticed in the past with bear and bull markets when there have been major moves with gaps that if those gaps are filled right after the move the move then continues in the major direction of that move—-then we could see a further move down then we can imagine—-a possible secular bear market. I’ve noticed that if the gap is not filled right away and the pricing seeks a bottom for awhile then the trend is once again your friend. Another positive of the huge runaway gap for this gold breakdown is that to fill it entirely you would move above the 200 week MA. I like that considerably.
James, hope this makes sense.
Here’s why we need another leg down, it’s 1976 again. Take a close look at the second chart here: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/17_Recent_Stunning_Gold_Plunge_vs_1970s_%26_What_To_Expect_Next.html
$8,000+ gold, here we come.
I don’t get that one either. Normally bull market correction tend to be steep, violent and fast, and we’ve had that plus basing for almost two years. I can understand why those who’ve already sold want more downside. Beyond that, the logic escapes me.
Al I guess you didn’t read my post on the Marshall beryl interview yesterday. Any comments?
Jennifer I have the same problem. It is my trapezius muscle. It is a posture issue with computers. I found the thing that works best is acupuncture. You need to break your position often throughout the day
If it is than you are very correct—postural change and frequent moving helps—also what helps is home exercises for this condition. One of the problems often is that people “hunch” their shoulders forward—-one of the home exercises is to periodically draw your shoulders back and hold them for some counts and then repeat.
Is there actual help from the bad guy HSBC?
http://www.kitco.com/reports/kitcoNewsMarketNuggets20130417.html
Dan
ACTION OF LEADERS…….TRUST THE GOVT…..AND TRUST IN GOLD…..man I am really confused……,,,WE ARE IN BAD SHAPE BECAUSE OF THE GOVT…..and the FED.
IF YOU HAVE an arm that is shot full of bullit holes,,,,do you put a bandaid ON IT……..
THE FED AND GOVT. ARE THE PROBLEM…. THE REASON TO BE BULLISH ON GOLD IS A VOTE AGAINST FIAT…..THE CLIPPING OF COINS. which is exactly what caused ROME to fall…….AND we are exactly like ROME….and supported by THE FED…..
I see the gold as a protection against the govt. gangsters……How ,on earth can anyone not see that the govt. because they fail to prosecute the bankster which are members of the FED. AND A CENTRAL BANK ..,,and “TO BIG TO FAIL”,,WHEN THE CENTRAL BANK,THE FED,,are allowing this problem to continue,,,,,THEY ARE THE PROBLEM….A CENTRAL BANK has always been the problem, BIG GOVT IS SOCIALISM AND THE PROBLEM….
A LEG DOWN IS THE ABILITY OF the shorts supported by the fed, has allow small investors to be smashed….BY inside information…..
I TOTALLY DISAGREE WITH BOTH OF YOU GUYS…..AL AND DOC….SORRY…
but, this sitution has given pause and hesitation in the market place….AND in no
way is beneficial to SMALL INVESTORs …..except, those who are now allowed to repurchase at bargain prices,,,which small investors have been wiped out at this shorting action……or set back….there is no benefit….because of this action
lower levels, at the expense of those who gave faith in a story that gold was going up
based on all the info that has been provided by all the spin masters…..fortunately I have been here for since 06, and I am not as affected as some who have come late,,but, to say that this is a bright spot….is totally wrong……I enjoy this site,,,,BUT COME ON AL AND DOC….THIS IS TOTALLY BS……
I am BACK WITH RANT OF THE DAY……
btw…..I personally like you guys…..so, do not take this as personal….
I THINK THIS IS SIMPLY ……IRON SHARPENING IRON…….LOL ……..SHORTY…
jerry, i have to agree with you at this point. I have been reading the archives and learned much. I am not going to bring out the dirty laundry, but most if not 99% were wrong, Sell signals should have been posted here starting 2 years ago.
thanks Bobby……..I do not expect the price to go parabolic, but, this manipulation , with the insiders is a joke…..
I have studied charts ,read books, done ta, read IBJ,WALLSTREET, LISTENED TO CNBC(BEFORE 2000)…..AND it is all inside information…..backed by the GOVT….
OIL,,,,IS A CON GAME…controlled by the GOVT…..,I guess we should not expect anything else ,,,,besides being jerked around by a bunch of SOCIALIST,
Well, Jerry,
What can I say? I love it. The market just SUCKS right now, don’t it?? Call a spade a spade. Although like you, I was pretty early to this party, and for once in my life, that helps.
I always think about the 1975-1979 period as an example of what patience is. People investing in anything that decade were whip-sawed back and forth. And so, I also can see go with Richard and Matthew’s logic. Gold pretty much went up to 1,900 on a ruler straight line. We never had a real pull-back.
That said, everything that caused me to get into metals in 1999 (1993 actually, was the first nascent nibbling) hasn’t changed, except it’s gotten worse.
I hope gold does go to $1,100. I want some more.
Have a grRRREAT day, Jerr,
– John
John….thanks for the insight…..MY thoughts ,,AND MY rant is not with the thought of gold going down…..IT IS ,,,THAT THE GOVT. IS YOUR FRIEND…….,and that the FED. is trying to help BY manipulating the markets…..giving inside info to the bankers,so they can SHORT, I know all about shorting and someone has to take the other side of the trade,,,,and the trading desk,,,,and all that non sence,,,,BUT, when you get to cheat, with a head start, and you have participation from other CENTRAL BANKS…..come,on..this is a monopoly game, with the banker, who gives you a $100 ,just after you land on BOARDWALK filled with apartments….
JUST MY RANT….I just love retracement,….really makes you feel like you have accomplished quite a bit….
I love this site……and all the wisdom…..thank ……ootb….jeeeeeerry the long….
Jerry, I don’t take it personally at all. When gold is much higher in the future we’ll all forget the stress at this moment in time.
THANKS DOC!
And YES…to the above comment. I am glad for this volatility – it just makes me more determined than ever. I remember some time after gold broke above $1000 and then plunged back to $700. The only thing I remember is saying: “I should have bought more – my gut was screaming at me….now, its more of the same. No problem. I am a patient man. If not, you would go crazy. Am I crazy yet? Nope, not even close. 🙂
HI DOC…..thanks for not taking it personal…..I just have a problem….with manipulation,,,,,of gold and people……with unfair advantage,….going to insiders ,while pretend politicans stand aside and do nothing……
You know, jer; after the last decade I think it’s safe to say that we don’t have “free markets” or true capitalism. Unfortunately, we just have to try to be smarter
we are all smarter,,,,I just hate being cheated, by a bunch of idiots……with pinstripped $3500 suits…..oooooooootb
BTW….DOC…..I do appreciate all your hard work…..on the TA….,but, do let BIG AL , corner you in his political ideas……..HE was going to vote for HERMAN CAIN….just joking……lol…..the box……
Hi Doc, Why is one more leg down bullish (yet one more)?
I am not convinced that this is over. We will ilkely get one more leg down not because there has been a big bounce but because there hasn’t.
The trading range has been getting lower and lower, failed at 1920, failed at 1800, failed below 1700, failed last week below 1600, failed at 1400 in the last 2 days.
One interesting thought I had: Kitco and Jon Nadler part company (the goldbugs’ great hate guy) and that was a better sign of a top than anyting else! When the hate mail coming into Kitco was too much, the beae had to be silenced. Then came the crash.
I am not as bullish on gold as Doc; we are in a confluence of bearish factors that have not played out yet.
As for the Plunge Protection Team in US stocks: is it unrealistic to think that if the Fed prints hundreds of billions to buy US Treasury bonds, then they might do the same to buy the stock market across the board? So they are supporting socialism and corporate fascism at the same time? Most pension funds are either instocks or bonds or both – QE in both of these markets would help to ensure that the pension funds don’t go bust, so maybe that is what the Fed is doing? Can we see their footprint in the market?
Only one trading range failed; the one between 1800 and 1523 or so.
Markets need to breath. Doc is right, a bigger bounce of the sort he referred to is akin to the market inhaling before exerting itself again. It would represent the bears catching their breath. It would be better for us bulls if the move is relentless. The bears would exhaust themselves and accomplish less with each dollar the more oversold the market becomes.
Matt, agree. Silverbug, what I personally would like to see in the PMs is a slow grind down over the next 4-6 weeks.
Goodpoint Matt. What I realy meant was that the price failed to get above resistance at 1920, then 1800,then 1700 then 1600 i.e. we got lower highs each time (except for the 1800 high last September but then recently just before this crash, we got an ominous failure to get above 1600.
I think 1400-1430 reistance is key right now,, because this was formidable resistance in late 2010 to early 2011 before the big run up to 1920. There was a quadruple top in Nov/Dec 2010 and a lot of chopping around near 1400 in early 2011. in fact, I fancied that gold was forming a bearish three peaks and a domed house pattern, which I saw on some stock charts site applied to the stock market. I wish I had traded on it! Of course, once gold got to Sinclair’s $1650 target in August 2011, I was wildly bullish again, like most other people!
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/three-peaks-and-domed-house-pattern-for.html
GOOD INFO on FED…at Sinclair site today……WATCHDOG USA…has a great interview…….might answer some question….on topic which we have been covering,,,,
WM.BLACK PROF. speaks concerning the fed. and banksters…
The government of The US is a military run country, how and I have said this now many times can you keep a fiscally responsible government and still field a huge military.
You can’t and support for a huge military costs an exponential amount of money and no country in history has ever been able to support a runaway military, they never have and they never will. The evil comes from thinking this way for decades and decades because it destroys not only the adversary but also the host country. You will never be able to have a peaceful society when you have animosity all around and the educated sheeple in the US can’t figure that the best way to prosper is by treating others with the respect you demand. DT
Gold down again tonight big time. I’m so numb from friday and Monday I am getting used to it. If we believe it is the 1975 1976 correction again then we just need to hold our breath and live through it. We need to be patient, very patient. And very calm.
Don’t hyperventilate—just breathe in a large brown paper bag. If this continues, we may get the final wash out next week. Just think of that beautiful runaway gap higher.
james….just looked myself…..down $29 plus……..I think they have changed the time of the shake down….Instead of early morning,,,,,now, maybe they are tried of getting up early ,,and have chosen to shake it down before they go to dinner….or after cocktails……..these guys are very funny…..
Looks like $1330 might be good support…is this a good thing though?
this is not usual,,, a sell off at this hour…..something is not right…..who is awake at this hour….maybe har, has decided to short the market….on light volume….
I got into gdxj for the 3rd day with a bigger position but sold at a loss near the close. Sold my conventional stocks to lock in the gains as it is starting to look scary especially another big drop in metals could drag whole market down.
I don’t think technicals are working anymore, the next 3 weeks will tell you nothing, the system is broke and a crash is needed. DT
the crash in what……stocks or gold….?….I think we just has a smash….which is close enough for a crash in gold…..,over bought gold,,,I do not think so……If you are talking about stock and dow….the pe are to high and a crash is coming….but,,,OCT. is always a good time…..beside the boyz need a summer break, they need to work on their suntans,,and suck some more people in……The time for the next election,,,2014,,what could they be thinking …? A crash in Oct…would give them enough time to reorganize, and blame it on the republicans……
Thought we already had a crash
The move to 1321 and now 1336 both came during thinly traded hours. I’m beginning to wonder if the bears even have the firepower to take us to the fibonacci retracement of the ’08 to ’11 move at 1302.
What can you do for chronic 1-sided neck & shoulder pain, probably aggravated by long days @ computer work?