Maybe a bit of a change in the Market?
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I am thinking you might just be right, Roger.
Your call that we will see a double bottom lines up with my thesis we will retest the lows. Nothing to be afraid of at all if that pans out. Actually if it does double-bottom we will get a solid confirmation of a bull resumption in metals and that will give a huge launch the miners (which some of us are very much looking forward too). Actually they are already rising in anticipation and some of the best gains will be made by the guys who lay their bets BEFORE we get a confirmation.
I hear even Goldman has revised projections for the year now and anticipates higher prices although it is doubtful we will break to new highs in my opinion.
Right now we will want to stick close to our trading screens. A rise off the bottom could be dramatic and fast leaving the wall flowers gasping for air (reminds me I better get those trades of mine lined up fast!).
Don’t you guys just love these markets? There is drama every day. Your analysis is appreciated, Rog and Al. Cheers to both of you.
My comments:
First the media has and will continue to paint a very rosy outlook for the economy. That is because it can be self fulfilling. Yes the average investor you talk about can sleep better. However that average investor in my opinion is not going to invest in the junior resource sector. How can an average investor who is sleeping better because he is duped into believing the economy is getting better invest in the junior resource sector? They will invest in Apple, Netflix, Google. These are the darlings of today.
Second – you talk about a major double bottom in gold at these levels, $1320 or so. What happened to the major triple bottom we had at $1550?
It is possible we have had an inflection point in this economy, whether it is the sequester,
Jobs, budget…who knows? The people that lose are the ones that are never willing to budge on their opinion. Do I personally believe the economy is getting better? Not really. But if it is and I stubbornly refuse to accept it than its over because gold will tank. That’s the nimble part you talk about. This is not the time gold cheerleaders. If that sounds negative its not. I am standing pat, I’m all in. It is what it is. But talking it up ain’t going to do it. Who knows what is going to happen in the fall. Too far away to make predictions in this environment. No one knows the future. Better to live in reality than fantasy. Right now gold is taking a shellacking. Call it as it is. That is where we are. Again this is not meant to be negative. People always need accuracy. Not cheer leading. Can it go up? Absolutely. Does it have? Absolutely not. We live in interesting times. Keep your emotions out of it. Watch and wait.
But James we cannot ignore that mining shares have been rising even while gold prices were flat or going sideways since the selloff. We are also getting a lot more news about steps the miners are taking to get their houses in order. They have been very proactive lately and I do think they smell the moment of capitulation and rebuilding has arrived. They do not want to screw this up….too much is on the line. I have had some ambivalence due to charts I see on the one hand but am very encouraged by market activity on the other. And why would da-boyz not be sniffing around the resource sector now? Everything else is overbought or overpriced. I think these companies will be seen as one of the very best opportunities for profit in the coming years and we all know how the really sharp tacks like to buy in at bottoms. How much risk is there when they have already been beaten to ratshit already?
I also recommend you read my other piece under Jeff’s insight. Because that too is very useful and could benefit.
jtl I agree with you on sheeple buying overpriced hyped up stock, bit as tough as it is if you are willing to wait 2 yrs I am confident you will see your assets (if quality …especially the gold and silver streamers) will go up by multiples….providing we still have a stock mkt. and we will soon all have to pay an internet tax thanks to the worst president ever! In the meantime, I’m sure its great to be a trader!
Bird man – if that works for you I hope it does. I only bet on what I know. I do not know anything more about miners than the average person. Without an edge and without information I will pass. Before the credit crises I invested about 25% of my portfolio in gold stocks. The other 75% was bullion. I simply reasoned if gold was going to go up the stocks would too. I randomly picked a handful of stocks of the HUI index, reasoning they would stand to profit if they are not hedged. I made a lot of money. They all went up significantly. Sold for a profit and bought more gold. However I also had some negative events happen. I told my broker to sell and she recommended sell stops. I had nova gold, it blew through the sell stop and instead of hitting a home run I hit a double. The lesson I learned was priceless though. Now I am strictly betting on the bullion. For me too many variable with the stocks. It’s not my game. I am buying and holding physical. I stick with what I know. I need an edge and I need value. Right now we could be seeing real value in the price of gold and the edge might be the emotions of greed (stock market) and fear (gold market) I’m content with the bullion.
DID SOME ONE SAY JUNIOR MINING STOCKS? AL YOU DID. NOW THAT BRINGS ME TO MY PORTFOLIO OF GOLD AND SILVER MINING STOCKS. I ONLY BOUGHT ONE JUNIOR MINING STOCK. NOW I HAVE LOTS OF THEM!!!!! IF THE PRICE KEEPS GOING DOWN I MIGHT HAVE ALL JUNIOR MINING STOCKS. THAT MAKES ME REALLY, REALLY HAPPPY!!!!
I’AM NOT SELLING BECAUSE SOON ….WE WILL BE SMOKEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JUST BOUGHT MORE ONE OUNCE SILVER COINS TODAY.
MY DEALER SAID SOMEONE JUST CAME IN TODAY AND BOUGHT ALL HIS SILVER EAGLES.
HE HAS NO BARS LEFT. HE HAS HAD THEM ON BACK ORDER FOR TWO WEEKS.
silver man…………..do not tell birdman………or he will flock to the store…..
You guys may just yet convert me, Jerry. I kept my powder dry so I am in good shape to invest if it really takes off. We will see. I am going to be watching for Roger’s double bottom (my retracement to the lows) in the next few weeks. If it holds and rebounds then I guess I am back in the game.
BIRD MAN……you will enjoy a read at KWN….JAMES TURK……IS SAYING $12,OOO GOLD AND SILVER $600……….this might make you mouth water,,,,or your feathers flap
Each time gold drops sharply, KWN raises their forecast. They are just entertainers.
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/content/en/mineweb-silver-news?oid=189706&sn=Detail Growth in global solar panel demand, once seen as a key area for silver use, will halve to 9% this year from 18% in 2012, HSBC has said. Demand for silver from solar panel industry accounts around 10% of the metals industrial consumption. “Due to over capacity and profitability issues in China`s solar panel industry, industrial demand for silver may decline this year,“ HSBC analyst Howard Wen said. Weak consumption from industrial uses in the electronics industry, terminal decline in the photography sector and record-high supply are likely to continue to be features of the silver market, which take a toll on ETP holdings. “Silver remains plagued by oversupply and the longer-term bear market in gold will take silver prices lower,“ Societe Generate analyst Robin Bhar said. …..
“Silver remains plagued by oversupply
But, but, but….. what about the massive shortage from last week? (yes, I am being sarcastic).
New Delhi, May 10… Though industrial growth in March recovered a bit , factory output registered the worst performance in more than 2 decades, government data showed Friday…..Industry`s performance in 2012-13 is its worst showing in 20 years……Overall slowdown in enomomic activity and consumer demand continues to constrain manufacturing growth……….India`s car market endures worst sales streak in history………“We have never witnessed such a long consecutive decline in car sales since data has been analyzed by SIAM from 1997-98,“ she added. …..India`s people aren`t in the dark there, whereas here its wine & roses here in America, thanks to the moronic press`s leading by our new age President Obummer. Perhaps thats what`s been going on in Asia buying craze of PM`s. The sheep there know what`s going on with their currency. http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20130511/biz.htm
kwn, saying $12000 gold and $600 silver? thats kinda surprising, are they usually that positive over there? lol
benb……..jAMES tURK……………..IS SAYING LONG TERM…..and should ,based on printing and value
I know Jerry, Long term.
What would have been good advicefrom kwn, about a year ago, might have been…I dont know..maybe get out of PM stocks and buy maybe, pipelines, or oil companies paying those big dividends or..or..but the kwn site has been repeating LONG TERM
just kinda one of those things that makes ya say hhmmmm or even wonder how good the talkin? I have PM, I am just sayin.
But golds been good to everyone all the way up to 1900, but the last year or so, gold was not the place to be. At least not shares. just sayin.
You mean the last two years I think. Right Benb?
benb…..go over to Sinclair’s sight,,,,,they have a nice chart…targeting the bottom,as being in Monday or Tuesday…………
Then,,go over to KWN…..and read the articals on shortages developing at LBMA…
I personally do not think you can trade gold and silver like a stock…….reason,,at sometime in the future ,,,you will not be able to repurchase the gold…at what you might believe to be a fair value….it will have exceeded what you believe to be a fair value……or seem to high in price…..or it may not be available period……..
I would agree that kwn….and others,,,,,except for BOB M…321 GOLD… DID not call for any warning,,,,,But, Bob..only called the parabolic move on silver,,,,he never mentioned gold…..I do not think anyone could have predicted the continued beat down and manipulation of the fed…and London boyz…. ONE thing is certain….gold is going from WEST TO EAST….which can be seen by the accumulation of China….,which means that the west(fed) might just be running out of gold….and the gold that has been leased,,is not coming back to the west……..and if it is not coming back to the west,,then there will be a shortage,,,,and that mean supply, and demand kicks in,,,and prices are going high……When ,,,who knows…., but, if you have something that is going up,,,and has continued to go up….why ,sell………I am reminded every time I look at my silver that I purchased for $1 per oz…..and I guarantee you ,,silver is not going back to $1,,,and gold is not going back to $35…….it is going higher….and will continue to go higher as long as there is money printing……period………
There is no shortage of Silver, Jerry.
May I repeat that again?………THERE IS NO SHORTAGE OF SILVER.
Hi Jerry, I was actualy just “funnin”. I see gold as money/ insurance and thats it really.
A regular buying program makes sense to me.
Just those kwn guys are always “to the moon” any day now but its a long term thing.
The not being able to buy it back has to be taken with a grain of salt I think too.
Gurus were saying that on the way up to $50 silver and it was far from the case.
For myself, I own silver, probobly more than any other kid on my block, and that will be enough I think, a regular 10% gold per month as insurance. But I am lucky enuff to be able to aford it, alot of people couldnt even if they were interested.
Some day maybe before I die gold goes up and I will be happy I have some and maybe silver up enuff to say the investment paid off,..maybe,…. if it doesnt maybe my kids and grandkids could think about making jewlery.
As for advice from the “Perma astonautical predicters”, Im sure they will have their day.
bend,,,,,thanks for the reply……I know what you mean ,,on those guy are to the moon………It,makes one wonder,,,,but,,,,you just have to keep going back and ask the same question…..where are we,,,,where have we been,,,,and has anything changed….,and since, my memory is longer than most,,,,I keep saying it is going higher,,,because,,,who would believe,,,,,we were at $35,,,or $20 gold.(1930)….so,,,I might be way out of the box….in another 30 years…………………best…ootb
Silver and Gold are only “insurance” after you have lost all your money buying into them. Before that time they were actually investments that made real money and profit. The insurance “meme” is just bullshit and an excuse for why you lost your shirt. You can invest in chickens too and right before the bird flu breaks out everyone will believe it is insurance. Jesus, that is the stupidest thing I ever heard.
BIRDMAN…..your comment….”.on losing all your money,”,,,you can not lose all your money….gold and silver are always worth something and have value…..it has always had value, and will continues to have value….I am sure, that you just ment,,,something else,right…………
btw,,,birdman……that WAS one of the “stupidest thing” I ever heard….”losing”” ALL””” your money buying ……GOT YA…………..,,,DO NOT WORRY YOU WILL CATCH MORE STUPID STUFF if you stay around long enough…….BEST…..OOTB
Roger…..Silver up as much as $15, huh??
Thats bold…..
But me thinks you might be being conservative….
I would like to know what the analysts think in terms of if gold has completed it’s 2nd bottoom or if it will go further down to between 1320-1380 range next week? ….Regarding pm’s, I trust Rog. But it will likely take until august or later….everyone seems content to buy into the talking head media and are not interested in knowing why or how it fell or when it will go back up. When the US dollar starts taking a beating, pm’s wil strengthen further