Today’s Kitco audio from a market perspective this time on silver
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Arturo Prestamo joins Al and Cory for a Kitco audio focused on the silver price. Arturo points out that so much silver is being used in everyday products never to be recovered again that the price should rise in next year to the $25 mark.
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No kidding. That’s what I’ve been saying and the reason to stay out of the market.
I’M BUYING more next week ! BUY BOYS !!!!!!!
IMHO an investor does not need to suffer through corrections like this one now if they sell off some PM shares before they think there will be a drop and buy an inverse ETF. HMD, HGD, HZD for example. I sold almost all my stock for the inverse ETFs and will play a down trend for a bit then an uptrend just before “tax-loss selling”. Man I hate that saying!
Demand is where it is at.Hopefully the banksters let it go to reflect the decline in above ground inventories vs gold.
http://www.robertsremarks.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/600yearsilver.gif
So we can expect $25 silver and this is supposed to thrill us?
Wow. Seems like $48 silver won’t be seen again…
It may be time to let the tax-loss season run these PM juniors down to next to nothing before buying in late December. I sold out on my Wildcat Silver and oops, its up today after sideways for awhile. No one is going to get this market perfectly right.
When I think of Silver Al, I always think very long term. I am talking 20 years out and accumulating for future demands against a backdrop of falling supply. Like you I am also a very big fan of silver. More so than gold which will always be subjected to the whims of Central Banks and the winds of politics.
Silver as we know is completely unique in its number of uses and is surprisingly rare despite the volumes that have been removed from the earth over the centuries. It is hardly respected either and gets tossed about as random useless bits of jewelry in most womens jewel boxes without much thought. There appears to be a lot of it too because most shops carry some and prices are never too high.
Unlike gold it is not stored in quantity by Central Banks, industry or even the military.
We have the data on how much has been lost too. We know roughly how much goes into landfills annually based on consumption patterns and we know how thinly coated it is on electronics and in medical equipment.
We know it is used so thinly in fact it cannot be salvaged in most cases. We have a good idea how much was lost to photography in the past and how much has vanished in battery technologies, plating copper dinnerware and other uses.
Industry too is a huge consumer and even though the uses can be miniscule on a component basis it is absolutely massive in aggregate. The existing medical uses number in the hundreds to thousands. Solar panel demands and batteries alone threaten to use up all known supplies in the future.
I honestly doubt there is a better long term investment given the availability of past supply, the inventory on hand and how much new product comes to market each year. When measured against a backdrop of rising technological demand that is in a strong growth phase (including solar and weapons), silver nearly borders on being a strategic resource.
Just on supply and demand metrics it has far more appeal to me than mere gold. Some have commented in the past that the physical amounts of silver available worldwide are now roughly equal to the total of all gold ever mined.
So much has been lost and is economically unrecoverable that silver may now be as important (and rare) as gold and yet that is not understood by most people yet. True silver watchers are in the vanguard. The almost unknown aspects of silvers true limited supply are really fascinating to me and thus is very suggestive of where prices may head in the future.
I would never suggest any accumulator sell any of their silver as the future is utterly stellar in my opinion. Unlike my sentiments towards gold, this is an outstanding long term opportunity. But this is also a waiting game. It is one that has been decades if not hundreds of years in the making as a combination of industrial, electronics, medical, military and and household consumption have gradually eaten through most of the worlds readily available supply and past inventory.
The day will come though…..not this year…..not next year……maybe not for 20 years……..but the day will come. Think of it as having bought dirt cheap Manhatten real estate well before the people of the civilized world arrived.
On that day silver will be utterly explosive and those who acquired over the years will find themselves on the right side of the best trade they ever made….or on the wrong side of confiscation driven by industrial urgency. Whichever comes first!
Lol, geez, which “guru” on silver was saying $75 by how many xmases ago?
The removed video actually had silver going over $1000 and eventually to the same price as gold. Keiser who is actually pretty good at economic info was saying $500 for a time.
In reality, our above ground stocks have been floating around the same amout for some time since we dropped to just below a billion tons.
Also there were “rumours” of production being greater than is required.
Now we have “runours” of huge amount of excess gold too.
This stuff is at least better than reality tv.
Can’t time this stuff, B. We know the fundamentals and developing demands though. We also know the basics and the numbers do not add up for surplus supply in coming years. Don’t get depressed over small prices for silver because those are not forever. You must be patient and keep some faith. Prices will rise and in my opinion they will rise explosively at some distant point in the future. Best to collect while it remains cheap and off the radar. The day will come.
lol Bird, your talkin to the choir here.
I just find it funny that the experts really dont have more of an idea than anyone else.
I used to play chess with Bob Zuk, he was some kind of master and drew I believe to Spasky and got honorable mentions against Fisher. At one time those guys were considered pretty good. Anyway, I played with Bob alot, and he had people that would pay him oddles of cash for lessons, thing is, books teaching the same thing as he taught would sell for about %5. I asked him why they didnt just buy the book and he said “I dont know,people just like to be told I guess”
Yes I agree, PM is a positive in a persons portfolio.
Not all PM’s B. Gold is rife with interferance. I primarily advocate silver although you have not heard much from me on the topic before. I agree there is plenty to criticize where the silver gurus are concerned. I don’t listen to any of them anymore to be honest. All I really need to know is consumption demand versus supply and total outstanding inventory. It is long term. I might well be dead long before it pays off. I just know it will pay off one day in the same way acquiring gold at 36 bucks was sensible in 1970 for those who could get their hands on any. Coins paid off in any case. A few sharp guys made a damned fortune.
I like silver a lot not only from a fundamental standpoint as pointed out by you but also from a technical standpoint and gold/silver ratio standpoint. If you look at long term silver charts they’re screaming both a massive reverse head and shoulders formation and a cup and handle formation that isn’t as long out but began back in the eighties.
Now you are talking Doc! That is one huge pattern and the ratio is quite compelling.
oops, thinks thats onces not tons.
If we can just get thru 2014 with 25 dollar silver that will be great. By my calculations I will breakeven on my 38 dollar silver in 7 or 8 years. I am pumped up.
Check out Bear Creek in Peru for an interesting play into development stage silver reserves.
Peru is Peru. And its trading volume is currently not turning the turn styles.
I like the projects it is currently developing and I am thinking someday Sprott and/or SLW will do something that will instantly add this concern to the front and center of the news letter writes headlines.
Didnt a mine, “pasu lima” somthing like that, a big one just get shut down due to difficulties in peru?
Pascua Lama is the Barrick’s mine on the Chilean-Argentinian border which has been suspended for multiple reasons but with significant litigation on the Chilean side.
Most of the infrastructure is on the Argentinian side. I find it ironic that a country named Argentinia is giving a precious metals operation trouble, but again most of the red tape is deriving from Chile.
Peru has its own trouble giving NEM problems in the north and BCEKF trouble in the south. But Humala knows that the miners need to mine in order for him to extort the profit from them. It is a blood from a stone realization.
Bear Creek was a nice development stage rounding out to an account with a silver streamer and producer.
The impact of Pascua Lama can be seen in SLW and RGLD quite a bit.
It will be interesting how the moth balling of this immense project plays out in the macro sense. no time to proof read
The Fundamental BEAR CASE for SILVER.
For centuries now silver has served as a medium of exchange, a store of wealth, an industrial instrument , a household utensil, and an ornamental heirloom.
And yet as we speak an ounce of silver hovers slightly above $21 an ounce.
The price would hardly indicate that this precious metal is indeed rare, unique, sought after, or indispensable.
And yet that is what we are supposed to believe?
I think not. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
The new siren call for silver, like the boardwalk carnival barkers, is the fabulous wealth opportunity silver has to offer for those savvy investors who have the patience to wait and the ability to see way into the future. Rubbish I say.
We are to believe that all these technological and industrial uses for silver will some day make it indispensable and by correlation outrageously expensive. Hog wash I say.
The nature of economics, business and technology in particular has always been to find a better way. A more practical way. A more efficient way. A more economical way.
This always has been and always will be.
Like the dinosaurs, new business models spring up, old ones die a natural death.
It is survival of the fittest. And this is how it should be.
Right now digital content management, 3D printing, NANO technology are a few of the latest technological innovations that are creating paradigm shifts in the way we process, distribute, and organize content, how we manufacture, how we develop medical procedures, point of sale, identity security… On and on it goes.
Whenever there is a challenge, technology finds a solution.
Cheaper, faster, smaller.
This will never change
And so are we to believe that businesses, industries, governments will become increasingly more dependent on a metal that is becoming more and more rarer and more and more expensive?
Never, never in a thousand years. And funny that’s almost as long as it’s been.
Technology will find a way. No approaches will be taken. Synthetic chemicals will be tried, new business models will be entertained. Substances not even yet discovered will replace older materials. This is the track record of history. It will not change.
Does anyone really think if we need silver that badly, businesses and governments will let the price increase substantially?
Again no. They will keep it down. They will keep it affordable. This is only logical.
I would also add anyone who is predicting what the future holds, 10, 20, 30 years out is rather foolish. And anyone advocating holding onto silver that long waiting for some payout is all together mad.
Just look backwards thirty years from today. It want all that long ago.
Did you expect to see cars that drive themselves?
Did you expect to see storage capacity that can hold a cities worth of data in something no bigger than a grain of rice?
Did you expect to see content from the entire globe delivered to your computer in the time it takes to say “Google”
To think that 20 years from now will not be radically different from what we are living in today
is folly. Innovations, devices, platforms we can’t even dream of today will be common place.
To think that somehow silver will play a part in this is incredible.
Can silver play a role as a monetary metal?
Absolutely. It can serve in this capacity.
But again the price will always be encumbered by government, business, industry.
To sum it up –
If you like silver, hold silver. Enjoy silver in all its forms.
But to wait decades for some expected payout is not the best use of ones time or capital.
We do not have decades. We are not going to live forever. Life is too short.
I for one regret more and more each day I didn’t sell out at $48
I even wish I had sold out at $40. Even $30 is looking good.
Did I lose anything? Not monetarily, no. But time is money!
Everyone needs to do what they feel is right. But I hope this gives you another perspective..
Oh James. Ye of little faith. Would you perhaps agree that farmland is becoming scarce? Maybe you will consider the decline in clean water sources for the global population? Are you aware that copper demands are already near to outstripping ready supply and the future for that metal is quite stark given population growth? How about the known reserves of liquid fossil fuels, uranium for all the reactors coming on-stream or even the availability of fished Tuna and Salmon? We do live in a world where shortages are becoming more real and commonplace. Strategic resources are worth holding for a wide variety of reasons as demand outstrips supply. You do not want to be left out. It has always been like this except now there are no more Wild West’s to discover the bounty needed for the future. Perhaps Africa will help. Maybe the Arctic. There is always deep space and the moon! In your lifetime though you will witness certain shortages and demands that could never have existed in any prior time. There is not a history available to guide us in this regard. Maybe all the worlds economies and societies will subside in a heaping pile of ash and debris long before that happens. I don’t know. What is known however is that at the current time there is not an alternative to silver and demand is both exceptional and growing. I will err on the side of that until such time that an alternative actually appears. Silver will be the new gold in any case. Just as sure as day follows night. You can bank on it based on what facts we know today without even bothering to look deeply into the coming two decades. But I understand you. Like all men who bet on horses you need that quick adrenalin rush and nearly instant results and satisfaction. It is like quickie sex being over in three minutes or less. I encourage you to try thinking longer term for a change. This is more turtle and hare than it is about Arabian horses out of the gate and dead of a heart attack just a few moments later.
Another point about silver resisting an alternative option in products is the fact that silver is used in such small quantities in most products that even a significant price increase won’t impact the overall prices of products much.
Exactly so. The speculative potential in silver can be quite substantial without disturbing industrial users or inflating end price production all that significantly. That observation makes it very interesting for me. Call me a big old silver fan. I think the future for this metal will surprise a great many people down the road.
$25 silver? Really, that’s it? Less than a 20% gain? Sounds a bit meager for what some experts are proclaiming is the most undervalued asset in the history of the world! Sarcasm aside, I think Art is probably being overly optimistic if his looking for $25/oz anytime soon. It’s interesting to get an insider’s view of things but in reality it’s mostly irrelevant. Let’s be honest, fundamentals are BS. Maybe not all BS, just mostly BS.
Around ten years ago I began taking interest in the gold and silver markets. At the time I had no problem following the fluctuations in the price of these metals simply by using my own fundamental analysis.
Since the price of silver went parabolic around thirty months ago I haven’t been able to accurately forecast these metals simply by using my own reasoning. The technical people Al interviews have filled that gap for me, but it leaves me believing that the amount of manipulation that is happening these days is much, much, greater than before.
I listened to Rick Ackerman’s webinar and for the life of me I can’t figure out how he has been so accurate in his predictions given the amount of manipulation which I believe is now occurring. I guess the key to his success is the fact that they can’t alter the markets twenty four seven, three hundred and sixty five days a year but he must also be feeling the stress of getting it right.
There are many so called TA’s out there but 99.99999% of the others just don’t measure up, so you know it’s very difficult to come up with the kind of insights Doc, and Rick have. DT
I am going with Jim Sinclairs call for 3500 gold before the end of 2016 or before the end of Obama’s last term of office. When that happens silver will go up nicely also. Something is going to happen between now and then that will spark a mega rally. It will be a bad news event. Obama will be responsible for it. When conditions get just right silver is going to blast off. Its hard to imagine this happening but I believe it will.
Patience is required. I happen to agree both Gold and Silver will see significant rises in coming years but this is just a waiting game as always. We cannot focus too much on the daily changes at this point in any case. The charts look terrible near term to me.
Oh Bird Man – You above all else should know “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush”
You make me laugh.
First off I have plenty of faith. The question everyone needs to answer is faith in what?
Regarding farmland. There are acres and acres of farmland available as we speak.
Take a ride through New York State. Acres available, for a song.
It is you who have no faith.
You sound very pessimistic with all your talk of scarcities.
You need to read the book “Abundance: The future is better than you think”
By Peter Diamondis
It will cheer you up
Also just because I am a horseplayer doesn’t mean I need quick action and do not know how to practice delayed gratification.
On the contrary it is because I am a handicapper I have cultivated those traits.
But you wouldn’t understand that.
Maybe it is because like some horses, you have blinders on
If you want to wait twenty years for your payday – good luck with that.
Not even I choose to practice delayed gratification that long!
Boost not thyself for tomorrow, thou knowest not what a day may bring forth!
Or as Doris Day once sang…..”Que Sera, Sera”. We cannot know the future. Not 3 minute quickies on a horse race and not gold prices in two years time either. We can still lay our bets and go on instincts (or handicaps) as you call them though. Bet you never saw this video in 40 years! Whatever will be, will be, James. Until then it is all just a discussion between friends.
By the way, the whole “abundance” theory is a crock of horse manure. Even a child knows it is all crap. Just do a little handicapping on that for a moment, James. Are you really that mathematically impaired when it comes to resources and population growth?
I dont know if the scarcity thing is horse manuer or not. Ive heard things such as there is an oilfield bigger than saudi fields just south of the alaskan coast that will be drilled at $200 a barrel.
We know diamonds are kept from the market to keep prices up. We know there is a Rothchild hoard of gold, maybe thats kept off the market too. Karen Hudes thinks so,but she thinks that gold is the american governments gold.
We have people argueing this scarcity stuff is hogwash and its only used as a way to make money.
So, I dont know, I do know we have been lied to about pretty much everything and the people have been intentionaly “dumbed down”, Also, once we hit space everything we could ever imagine is in more quantity than we can ever imagine, all just for the taking.
Scarcity? Maybe things do get scarce, intentionaly or by cercumstances beyond anyones control.
How could the average person be sure?
$25 dollars!!! Hello Big Al is this what you call hard asset investing? To buy silver now and make less than 20% next year??
So much bs out there. I once thought that this could be a good site but I know that you are all controlled by a major power.
I dont give a dang about low cost producers? How much to produce a laptop? The UK has 1 silver/gold mine! What a bull shit site.
http://srsroccoreport.com/trick-or-treat-the-fed-smashes-gold-silver-while-2000-oz-of-gold-eagles-sold/trick-or-treat-the-fed-smashes-gold-silver-while-2000-oz-of-gold-eagles-sold/ manipulation all the way !!!!!!!!