Is the bottom in?

Big Al
December 4, 2013

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    Dec 04, 2013 04:05 AM
      Dec 04, 2013 04:06 AM
        Dec 04, 2013 04:10 AM


        Dec 04, 2013 04:56 PM

        Just wait until this hits major cities!

      Dec 04, 2013 04:55 PM

      Interesting action on the part of the IMF, right Franky?

        Dec 04, 2013 04:31 PM

        Dis is a monopoly game ! Fors you in the dollar euro and yuan game ; And dean skwees you ; With tax fees and devaluation and depreciation THE HOLL WORLD !

    Dec 04, 2013 04:17 AM

    Not so fast you guys. Drop whatever you are doing and go pull up a daily chart on gold. The trend is still down. There is little doubt about it. We are going to test 1200 this month and may see that 1190 low as well. I know everyone thinks the bottom will hold. We are going to find out soon enough. Careful before you bet the house though. This bear still has some teeth.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:39 AM

      Good point for now. Still, Bird, looking better today than yesterday.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:23 PM

      Of course the trend is still down, and it will still be down if your targets are reached. There must be a bottom before the trend can turn up.

        Dec 04, 2013 04:08 PM

        Of course I agree. This is a major test coming, Matthew, and it is being closely watched by not just the metals crowd but by the whole resource community. A key trurning point that lies ahead might signal a change in how the entire commodity sector behaves. Lets not forget that gold is not alone in having seen heavy declines for over the past two years. Actually it was one of the last to start falling which suggests it is behind the curve. I am equally interested in watching what is happening with corn, wheat, coffee, soy, copper and many others that are in various stages of approaching bottoms or hitting key resistance levels. I think this matters and will weigh on what gold does medium term. It is in fact part of my reasoning for why I still believe that gold and silver will break below the June lows that some see as the last line of defence. Nothing to be too concerned about though. If commodities as a group are positioning to turn up they will likely do so as a group and so this will call for major repositioning of portfolios as it is not just metals and gold/silver miners (equities) that will benefit from a directional change. I think this is what we need to keep our minds open too moreso than just watching one resource in exclusion. Coffee, interestingly enough looks like it may have bottomed although I suspect it will retest the recent lows and may serve as our signal that change has indeed arrived. Stay tuned!

    Dec 04, 2013 04:45 AM

    Maybe we are bounceing off the bottom? Still the bottom tho.
    Even if the “bad guys” did take it down to $1000, still a bottom and its gonna turn.

    Did somebody pray to have their patience tested around here?
    Quit doin that would ya?

    Always good to hear from Bob, not that it matters but I totaly agree with Bob, lots of companies out there that could be 10-20 baggers right now. More than I have the money to buy anyway.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:57 PM

      Sure what you think matters, b!

    Dec 04, 2013 04:46 AM

    Catching a falling knife…Getting close…Most indexes are breaking down and were due for a bounce…The trend is down until its broken your…well… back to a knife possibly..
    Go with MA…he has been completely out the bear.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:51 AM

    Want to catch this? Maybe its a fake out…If the bull is as big a head as we think then whats the rush….?

    Dec 04, 2013 04:56 AM

    Have today sold a penny oil stock on a tear right now (Tower Resources), and bought 2000 Sandstorm with some of the profits. So what if the former doubles and the latter goes down?! I’m looking at 2-5 years down the line.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:08 PM

      good buy good luck !

      Dec 04, 2013 04:58 PM

      Your time frame is exactly the same as mine, Reverend!

      Dec 04, 2013 04:23 PM

      Hi Andrew, what makes you chose ssl over slw?
      If you dont mind me askin.

        Dec 04, 2013 04:38 PM

        Dollar cost averaging b. Have done the same with slw. Best, A

      Dec 04, 2013 04:07 PM

      Sandstorm Gold,,,excellent choice…Rev. Nolan Watson runs that company…doesnt get better than that…”cut his teeth” at one of the head guys at Silver Wheaton.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:15 PM

    Muted stock response to the bullion rally is telling.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:25 PM

      I agree. The miners should be doing better right now.

        Dec 04, 2013 04:59 PM

        Billy and Matthew,

        I think it is much too early to consider the miners at this point in time!

          Dec 04, 2013 04:08 PM

          I have to disagree, Al. I am happy to accumulate companies that are trading at one-half to one-tenth of book value (as long as their projects are good and they have enough cash).

          Be that as it may, the limited leverage to the gold price displayed by the miners today could be a message that the market thinks this was just a relief rally and that the metals are still heading lower. We will have a much better idea soon enough.

            Dec 04, 2013 04:34 PM

            What are you disagreeing with me on?

            Dec 04, 2013 04:29 PM

            I disagree with your feeling that it is much too early to consider the miners at this time.
            But you obviously could be right!

            Dec 05, 2013 05:40 AM

            Again Matthew it is all about a person’s time frame.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:31 PM

    Bob M has been wrong for sometime. He use to be spot on years ago.
    Charts look like crap. I things its going to beat bulls to death and there are still a few hanging on. Elds looking at a break down?

      Dec 04, 2013 04:52 PM

      In dollars, ELD (EGO) did break below its June low but is now above it.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:01 PM

    Just talked to a buddy and had mention that hes been tracking all Bobs picks and they are all wipe outs…

      Dec 04, 2013 04:01 PM


      The reality of anyone’s “picks” is that the majority are, of course, all down. Heck my resource portfolio is way in the red today. Be interesting to see where it is twelve months from now!

        Dec 04, 2013 04:40 PM

        Ditto with my portfolio Billy, Al. We’re still the ugly ducklings on the dance floor!

          Dec 04, 2013 04:28 PM

          And in the pond Reverend!

    Dec 04, 2013 04:24 PM

    I hear that! It shows that there is a time to be NOT picking anything the last 2 years. There were warnings of the end of the commodities bull 2011. We are leveraging and when the economy is slow its bad for commodities. These stocks can lose 95% and a few of mine have…I’ve wised up and have done a lot more research. Its sit tight time until we confirm a trend change….I think. I used the summer rally to raise cash thankfully.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:14 PM

      Good for you Billy,

    Dec 04, 2013 04:08 PM

    Billy, I have been buying for the last two months, when something is beaten up you just buy and hold and wait ……….. at some point the market will come to your way of thinking but that only happens to contrarians. Selling is another issue but I always read the flyers so I can get my groceries cheap. DT

    Dec 04, 2013 04:23 PM

    Even BOZO the clown knows that if you want to be successful in life, you tell people what they want to hear and you do the opposite. How hard can life be just ask the politicians who screw up continually but still keep their jobs. DT

    Dec 04, 2013 04:48 PM

    Thanks DT,
    I’m up to speed with that. I HAD 2 mil ++ portfolio. We averaged down a while ago and we are sitting at $900k. Bob M said average down and smile. I like Bob as he has unique view on things buy getting killed F##king sucks.
    The Gold experts have been wiped out. Sprott Casey and the likes. I’ll be VERY careful before I add any even here…RIO.TO was cheap at $2 and now its $1.40. Allied has a huge debt and barely make the payments now. It was $40 now $3.40 and could easily end up like GBG.TO….Its serious gambling here….still..

      Dec 04, 2013 04:57 PM

      Billy, I can’t believe the prices for some really good stocks, I don’t care what anyone thinks about what is going on most are missing a chance that they may never see again. DT

        Dec 04, 2013 04:11 PM

        Where’s the “like” button?!

        Dec 04, 2013 04:33 PM

        It may be gambling Machine Gun, but I do like my odds.

        See you at PDAC.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:24 PM

      Billy, Read your Allied post,did some checking, and had no idea that ANV had racked up approx.$600 million of debt in the last 5 years.Thanks for the post!!

      Dec 04, 2013 04:30 PM

      Of course it is Billy but I like my odds!

    Dec 04, 2013 04:30 PM

    Hey AL, here is another interesting opinion on gold I think would be interested in.

    Gold to Trade Under $1,000/oz in 2014

    This article (edited) was originally published to Premium Subscribers Monday September 23, 2013.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:39 PM

      cecilhenry, I think your “marketbeater stockpicker” should take Bobs advice and sell all he has and buy bitcoins.
      He probly wrote that article before the chinese said they are no longer going to accumilate american dollars, he also may have missed how much gold they are buying, somewhere around the entire global production I think.

      But, maybe he knows somebody is accessing the 170,000 tons?

      An interesting read in any case. thx.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:38 PM

    Hope Mr. Moriarty is right. The monthly 10-year chart shows Au & Aq basing within a strong region of support ggoing back several years, and the leveraged naked short sellers appear to becoming more vulnerable with each failed attempt to smash the metals further suggesting we have not had the blow off (phase III) of the bullion bull. Anyway, it’s been a long hard ride. I don’t like what I see coming–not so much for gold and precious metals, which will do fine, but for my country.

    I think Obamacare is/was the last straw to break the economy. I don’t want Obama (aka Hillary) Care to fail; I want it stopped before it can do any more damage to our economy. YOu don’t fix a problem by compounding it. Even so, kindness and benevolence are laudable but only to the extent that they are affordable–and we’re broke! There will always be the greater and the lessor–and unfortunately those stuck in the middle catch it from both sides plus top and bottom of a society .

    Dec 04, 2013 04:42 PM

    I don’t give a dang how cheap these things are, they can get cheaper FAST. If their cash cost is $1250 on 5 million ounce and they have 500mil in debt and 10mil cash you are buying a worthless company. Their insolvent! If that yellow stuff cost more to get out of the ground than its worth you have moose pasture and an auction on a bunch of rolling stock. The logging industry works the same way as a friend had a multi million dollar show and had to sell his trucks .20c on the dollars last down turn. Great if gold goes up quick it will save the day…if it delays these guys are burning through cash like no tomorrow…my 2 bits.

      Dec 04, 2013 04:17 PM

      That’s why you might consider companies like P.TO or juniors with no production, no debt and plenty of cash. You might also look for juniors with deep-pocketed JV partners that will spend a lot of money to earn an interest.

      To tell the truth, producers with higher cash costs will probably enjoy the quickest big gains once the market feels like the bottom is most likely behind us.

        Dec 04, 2013 04:36 PM

        RE “To tell the truth, producers with higher cash costs will probably enjoy the quickest big gains once the market feels like the bottom is most likely behind us.”
        Exactly Mathew, that’s why they sold off the most and is riskier business for your capital.

    Bob………is almost always correct….,,,,he called a silver top…..

      Dec 04, 2013 04:46 PM

      Bob has a great track record and is hard or impossible to beat as a contrarian. BUT bottoms are roundy and tops are spiky so nothing wrong with watching for some basing…each $100 down takes the piss outa these companies margins…He most likely has more money than all of us put together 🙂

        Dec 04, 2013 04:02 PM

        Probably does, Billy

    Dec 04, 2013 04:15 PM

    One up day and “is the bottom in” hits. LOL.

    Dec 04, 2013 04:32 PM

    Har-dy Har: soon there will be.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:19 AM

    These anti-Bitcoin snarks are misinformed and obnoxious. I completely agree with Mr. Moriarty’s sentiments on gold, but he shows his ignorance, like oh-so-many in the gold crowd, about Bitcoin the moment he starts to imply it’s some sort of silly trading sardine. Bitcoins are not exactly tantamount to Pokémon cards.

    You people need to stop bad-mouthing Bitcoin until you (a) understand it, technologically and economically, and can explain it; or (b) can tell me you paid for your lunch today in gold, so therefore you don’t need to walk around with fiat money in your pocket everyday henceforth.

    Until then, it’s hypocritical; Bitcoin has the same virtues as gold, and its advocates have the same aim as gold’s: to give people Good Money.

    (Standard disclaimer: Bitcoin is an experiment! If I were buying (more) bitcoins right now, I’d be buying ten times that amount in gold/silver.)

      Dec 05, 2013 05:52 AM

      Greg McCoach wrote a piece regarding Bitcoin yesterday.Very positive,tho, hard for the”average” to grasp ..called the inventors., absolute geniuses..

        Dec 05, 2013 05:36 AM

        Without a doubt. It’s one for the history books.

      Dec 05, 2013 05:16 AM

      Catfish, you are brilliant….I wanted to learn more about bitcoin, but all the pundits and goldbugs said it would be a waste of time….I held on to my gold ….down, stocks WAYYYYYYYYYYYYy down……silver…….crushed. Now they are saying wait 5-7 years. I will be lucky to be alive in that timeframe.

        Dec 05, 2013 05:40 AM

        Open yourself a wallet, Bobby:

        Then post your (first) Bitcoin address and I’ll send you your first ‘coins. Not too late to start accumulating. 🙂

        But don’t sell your gold and silver!

      Dec 05, 2013 05:44 AM

      I am not at all anti-bitcoin, I just don’t see the rationale for buying anything that has gone up so incredibly for no good reason. Heck, even when something goes up for a very good reason (like a junior with fantastic drill results), I would still sell the spike.
      The problem is that BC is 100% speculation. There is no way to accurately and confidently assign a value to it.
      I wonder if you and James would “back-up the truck” and load up if it fell to $500. If so, how about $50?
      I am not interested at any price, but I do think the idea is interesting.

        Jan 31, 2014 31:17 PM

        AKAIK yov’ue got the answer in one!

    Dec 05, 2013 05:55 AM

    I checked into a lot of Mr. Moriarty’s recommendations and I was quite surprised because he seems to be chasing those mining companies that need to find gold for the most part. Just because his picks are close to a proven deposit of other cos. doesn’t mean that they are going to hit it big. Spend less money and buy lotto tickets. LOL

    Dec 05, 2013 05:49 AM

    When Franky says SELL then the bottom is in

    Dec 05, 2013 05:52 AM

    I too believe very strongly in bitcoin. And yes many people don’t understand it from a technological perspective. Catfish I agree with all your statements except one, it doesn’t have all the virtues of gold, it has most, and actually does some even better, but it doesn’t have all…but it is still a buy!

    Dec 05, 2013 05:57 AM

    Moriarty has called bottoms COUNTLESS times! And has been WRONG continuously!
    That is a fact if you read his site. A broken clock is right 2 times a day as well.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:05 AM

    There is too much currency ,property and financial assets in the world for gold or silver to be as dirt cheap as they are. Prices of gold and silver are so dirt cheap and insignificant that if they were actually correct it would imply that the amount of currency, financial assets and property values in the world would have to implode to next to nothing to balance the equation of money backing up currency and other assets.
    Those that got psyched out and sold out of physical gold and silver will soon regret it.

      Dec 05, 2013 05:09 AM

      I agree completely. Those of us who understand should be celebrating all the bearishness and lack of conviction that even former bulls are displaying. It is necessary for a bottom.
      The set up couldn’t be more appealing in my opinion. To see gold languishing while so many other asset classes are flying high just makes the sector a no-brainer. Even U.S. real estate has jumped 25 to 40% in ten major cities —in just one year.
      Everyone should take a look at a 20 year monthly chart of the XAU (gold stocks) priced in conventional stocks ($XAU:$SPX). Then look at the miners versus gold ($XAU:$GOLD). The miners are more oversold than they were when gold bottomed at $250.
      This is a great time to choose the miners over conventional stocks AND gold —but of course, valuations could become even more extreme before the turn.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:14 AM

    I say we could see gold tested to $900, Who said MP investing was not for the faint of heart?

      Dec 05, 2013 05:15 AM

      Not that I’m selling mine.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:54 AM

    Blood in the streets? YEP

    Dec 05, 2013 05:37 AM

    Bob M. has been wrong for soooooo long. I was the the guy that told him I was selling $250,000 in coins. Sorry I’m not making a bottom. I’m using that cash to buy things that will give me leverage to dig out of his crap hole of recommendations.. Sure as hell ain’t buying bit coin. The fact is he told us to SIT and wait it out and the was 2 million dollars ago!! Give me a god dam break. Now he says sell crap and buy quality!? Well the CRAP I own were his recommendations…most is worthless and ya cant even get .10c on the dollar…I’m just being honest here. HE IS CORRECT there will be a bottom and a hell of a rally…not yet. Me and 8 buddies won’t be buying his duds anymore. He has a lot going for him but he pounded the table that HE would call THE TOP. 2011 was a major and If hes as good as he thinks he is that should have been the call until further notice. If you brag then put up the goods.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:55 AM

    I recon it’s a game for him. People put faith in people that deserve respect and standup quality. But I’m afraid it’s
    If you want to get people to believe there’s some sort of crack up ahead and you warn over and over to get into something REAL and the USD is used toilet paper and your pumping companies that actually are turning into toilet paper then….He has a lot more money to piss down the drain than us and his advertise revenue is in 5th gear. Things are just not that simple to navigate.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:00 AM

    Most gold pullers like Sprott can’t even tell you when to sell or sell out on their funds as they built empires on this and are afraid to cause a panic but that’s exactly what the market needed. Not a hand holding hang on its a correction that last forever. These type of guys do more damage to bull markets than anyone. Like KWN perma bull idiots. “Ya we are going to the moon!” crap every day for 2 years. Don’t support these sites!!

    Dec 05, 2013 05:01 PM

    Doesn’t anybody read Martin Armstrong ?
    Heh..I just read Jerry’s note about Eric Sprott . I couldn’t agree more with you . These were the pushers – BUY MORE – Silver to the moon !!! Right ! And KWN won’t even interview Martin Armstrong anymore because Armstrong say : gold down to the $ 1000 – $ 950 level. Who wants to listen to that – right ? It sounds so much better when one says : Gold to $ 50,000
    Greg Hunter – USWatchdog is another one who only interviews a permabulls .
    So much damage has be done to some poor ( uneducated ) gold/silver-bull by listening to the gold pushers.
    Next time – when silver goes up again ( and it will ) watch ERIC S. announcing how high silver goes – SELL.
    HUI back to 2008 lows ? Looks like it .
    As per Martin A….a low in 2014 .

    Dec 05, 2013 05:37 PM

    Heidi: Maybe we can salvage what we have left. I was a major investor at Sprott 13 years ago. First name basis with the crew.
    His best Manager who left them I spoke with recently. Hes not a gold bull at all. We talked for a 1/2 hour and trust me he doesn’t talk to to many people. He’s humble and knows he make errors but has never had a losing year. YUP i read and agree with Martin! I have a good simple report I’d share but i don’t know how to get it to you. guys that get out of the way and understand cycles!

      Dec 05, 2013 05:16 PM

      Armstrong’s tune changed quickly after his release. What do you make of that? Jim Rogers also thinks gold will go to $900 or so. Both men are very closely followed and respected. As such, it becomes less likely that their expectations will come true. The more widely expected the outcome, the less likely the outcome. These men have deep pockets and friends with deep pockets; why would they make their true thoughts public? I think they put out those low targets so that they can accumulate cheap assets without having to compete with the bag-holder class for those assets.
      The miners are cheaper than they have ever been, and oversold. I will buy further weakness, and if we go to their targets, I will buy there, too.

    Dec 05, 2013 05:46 PM

    Greg Hunter, Bob Moriarty ( average down and smile) no get the F out a year ago.Daaaa, Frank Holmes ect ect. These people sell to those who will listen. I actually thought some had some interest in protecting people…No I see they don’t know what their doing or maybe just blinded and slinging their mantra….
    Bob said “I tell ya when the tops in” a 100 times….I had actually gave faith. Now I’m pretty close to screwed. No I am compared to where I was!

    Jan 05, 2014 05:25 PM

    These gurus keep saying the bottom is in I’ve been hearing it for a year or so. The gold spot forex if I recall correctly was somewhere around $1650 then and in July last it had a pop when it hit $1200.00. The bottom is now in they are saying. Of course this is a double bottom!! Sure it is. Because someone he knows sold all of their gold it’s now an indication the bottom’s in. My grandmother sold her gold watch so the bottom is in. The US has to supply gold to other sovereigns that they don’t have. Do you think the US is going to allow the price of gold to escalate without manipulation. Give me a break!!!! If the broad market crashes then buy all the gold you can get your hands on including the gold miners. I got mine have you got yours?