After the drop in gold this morning Gary says $1,030 is back on the table

December 19, 2013

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    Dec 19, 2013 19:52 AM

    I listened to Bernanke last night and unless I missed something during a potty break, there was no mention by Bernanke or any of the reporters during the Q&A session that followed of our ever increasing National debt.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:45 PM

      What debt!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:02 AM

    Why bother with this sector? Sure, gold makes pretty jewellery and nice fillings, silver is so darned mesmerizing and hypno…. must… buy…. silver…. must…. buy… silver…

      Dec 19, 2013 19:45 PM

      Because it is so damn interesting Midas!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:57 PM

        I thought Gary, you should have stuck with your brave call for 1030 that you made earlier and not changed your mind until at least a break above something like 1350.

          Dec 19, 2013 19:56 PM

          We had a fourth daily cycle low. One has to take a shot on a fourth. Sure there could be a fifth and we are going to get a fifth this time, but one still has to take a shot, especially after that buy signal I got three weeks ago.

          This just happens to be one of those times when the indicator failed.

          This is why I stressed many times no more than 10% in case we got whipsawed out.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:11 PM

      you now MIDAS GOLD corp ?

    Dec 19, 2013 19:02 AM

    It sucks that we the gold bulls have to see very negative news in the other markets before we can participate in upward movement. I guess we just write off another year and hope for better days coming. Merry Chrismtas to all.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:17 AM

      Merry Christmas to you and best wishes for the new year.

      On the move in gold/silver today…
      I am doing my small part to support Silver! :o)

      Here’s how I look at it: when gold/silver made its bull move in the aftermath of the financial crisis, I thought that the horse was finally out of the barn. I was going to have to live with the metals I had on hand and watch it run.

      This bear market — which has taken place within the context of even more debt and money printing — is an absolute gift. It has permitted me, I believe, one last opportunity to position myself before the real move is made.

      The fact that people are willing to trade me real money (gold/silver), in return for Federal Reserve Notes, is comical. But I will take that trade every time.

      So I am going to continue to scale in for as long as the market permits. And on a day like today, rather than become disconsolate, I say ‘thank you’.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:17 AM

        Very wise, very wise – indeed!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:47 PM

        You seem like an intelligent man, so I believe you are thinking through your actions. Please don’t forget diversification!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:41 AM

      Investing on hope? OMG

        Dec 19, 2013 19:47 PM

        Yep Billy, gotta stick to fundamentals or technicals if you are so inclined!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:46 PM

      LGC, yes it certainly does suck!

      Dec 20, 2013 20:34 AM

      You’re an idiot

    Dec 19, 2013 19:08 AM

    Cory, Market Anthropology comments “With respect to the US dollar, we continue to expect the USDX to make another push lower towards the bottom of its long-term range. At the end of the Fed’s previous accommodative cycles (1977, 1994 and 2004) – the dollar has initially come under pressure and tested the bottom of the range.” Check out their comments; if history is an indication then gold should finally reverse. The Third Choir

    Dec 19, 2013 19:13 AM

    Gary, I don’t know why but I cringe every time I hear someone in the Gold camp start talking about “backing up the truck”. My call on gold to hit 968 as the low point is still in play as far as I am concerned. Sometime in the new year. I love how gold stalled out just a few points above the 1190 low by the way. That will create some drama for the rest of the week!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:56 AM

      Hey Bird…either way we still need ALL the bulls to give up..u r right too many guys saying “great buying opportunity”…it may still take a few months to get there imo

        Dec 19, 2013 19:24 AM

        Exactly. I need to see a breakout with substance before I get excited. The declining pattern continues in a long unbroken trend going back to November 2012 as I have pointed out many times here before. All I can say to everyone here is to trust your own eyes and your instincts and don’t listen to the noise. ……so could we bounce off the bottom that we just hit at 1190? You bet we can. I expect a gold rally tomorrow. Don’t count on it holding though. Gold wants (and needs) to test lower before there is a real bottom in place.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:48 PM

      Academy award winning drama!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:14 AM

    I like Gary’s predictions at least he is consistently up and down, that’s the way markets are these days. Live with the volatility and try to enjoy yourself over the holidays. Next year you will be surprised. DT

      Dec 19, 2013 19:29 AM


      Will trade you 20 Obama’s for one Rob Ford; boy, that guy can surely dance……….

      Merry Christmas to all…………

      Dec 19, 2013 19:28 AM

      Consistently up and down?…………..good one DT. You are making my head spin.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:49 PM

      Good example of staying nimble which I happen to believe is a necessity today!

        Dec 20, 2013 20:46 AM

        I wouldn’t call following the market around being nimble. Being nimble involves at least a little ability to anticipate rather than react. Gary does not do to well anticipating. But he reacts well by moving out of his losing trades. Tough luck with those silver LEAPS though. That loss must really hurt.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:22 AM

    Not sure I would call this volatility. That implies it goes up and down.
    Far as I can see it only goes down, with very brief, insignificant respites
    Am I wrong?

      Dec 19, 2013 19:29 AM

      I guess it depends which chart you are looking at. A daily chart looks one way and a monthly charts looks another. (as it does for the S & P)

      Dec 19, 2013 19:50 PM

      Certainly not of late!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:29 AM

    James, I am making a little joke, Gary seems to get a lot of people stirred up and I can’t figure out why, I think his reasoning is sound but it is only part of the mix and everyone needs to decide for themselves. DT

      Dec 19, 2013 19:32 AM

      Because he says gold could go down – gasp.

        Feb 01, 2014 01:06 AM

        Such an imsrespive answer! You’ve beaten us all with that!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:38 AM

    I look at the 10 year chart, and it is horrible. If it breaks here I think we go all the way back down to $1000 where the reverse head and shoulder pattern broke out.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:53 AM

    And I too agree with this “back up the truck” nonsense.
    The gold market has been completely anniliated. Gold has been killed.
    You dont recover from that

      Dec 19, 2013 19:50 PM

      No, no, no, not yet killed!

        Jan 31, 2014 31:34 PM

         ( 2012.02.17 20:44 ) : Great post but I was wondering if you could write a litte more on this sucjebt? I’d be very thankful if you could elaborate a little bit more. Many thanks!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:55 PM

      james james james. bears make bulls. You sound like the perfect person to give up. Thats important for bottoms… Did you go through the 70s?. Whats the diff between $200 to $100 decline and now?!!!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:48 PM

        Not quite that much yet Billy, but getting pretty close! And then what happened by the way?

    Dec 19, 2013 19:57 AM

    I thought Gary saying “stops could get hit and we see a fast 150 pt drop” is hopefull.
    James, your saying we need a big drop fast? Bird, your saying 968? I have been saying for how long? Around $1000 and the Chinese increase buying.
    It would be nice to see an upmove in gold before I died but if not Its still coming. lol

    Can anybody figure out what % of gold the Chinese are buying of 3 trillion when they buy say 2000 tons per annum? It really is too many zeros for me, I think that might be telling. thx to anybody.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:08 AM

      Well three trillion is the same as 3000 billion dollars, B. The PBOC has already stated they wanted diversification of no more than 2% of their foreign exchange holdings to be in gold which implies 60 billion in purchases based on that 3T number. How much gold is that?……………….32,150 troy ounces are in a tonne…..

      So then one tonne at todays price of 1200 is 38,580,000 dollars.
      So then how many tonnes are there in 60 billion if one tonne is 38.58 million buckeroos?
      That would mean 60,000 million divided by 38.58, right?
      The answer is 1,555 tonnes.

      (That means the Chinese are liars about their gold buying intentions by the way). The figure is does not include existing holdings nor how much they are currently mining and keeping in Central Bank reserves. Nor does it factor in how much the public there has acquired. Gold acquisitions in China have been quite considerable. Possibly as much as 6000 tonnes total in the past few years (or more). Maybe they really meant they wanted to diversify 8 or 10% of their FX into gold. That would make a lot more sense to me. You get the picture anyway. The Chinese are quickly building the largest gold hoard on the planet and their assertion that they only want 2% diversification is pure BS!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:59 AM

        I have read that some of the gold the Chinese are mining within their own country has production cost in excess of $2000/ounce. If true, ask yourself why they are doing it.

        I have two theories: (1) they have no intention of selling it; and (2) they may no longer care what the US Dollar price of gold is.

          Dec 19, 2013 19:29 PM

          I had not heard that, Eric. Does not surprise me though. They also build ghost cities!

          On the issue of how much gold China has though we do have some interesting numbers. Their state held deposits are an official 1054 tonnes since 2009. Annual production is now in excess of 400 tonnes annually which is assumed to be added to the total of CB deposits. Gold imports to China were 832 tonnes in 2012 and total purchases in 2013 are a whopping 1330 tonnes already this year just based on imports from Hong Kong. Those striking figures alone suggest total aquisitions and mine production plus existing holdings now amount to a figure closing in on 5000 tonnes total (assuming 300 tonnes per year average domestic production since 2009). Then we need to add in how much has been acquired from Switzerland, the IMF and off the books purchases from around the world. They EASILY have 6000 tonnes right now today making them the worlds second largest hoarder of the yellow metal and are quickly closing in on the US to perhaps become number one.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:30 PM

            So yeah….gold does not matter! And no, they will probably never sell any of it.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:50 PM

            Let me repeat, my experience with these folks has been that their time frame is completely different from ours.

            Trust me, we all did okay when, after 22 years our little bank was bought out. And, for what it is worth, we were ridiculed often during that 22 year period as the stock went from about $0.25 to about $13.50!

            Dec 19, 2013 19:59 PM

            Nice work Al!

            Dec 19, 2013 19:03 PM

            Junior banks move like junior miners!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:21 PM

        Thanks alot Bird.
        The way I see it with those numbers is the Chinese government is purchaseing maybe 10% of their american dollar reserves into gold? aprox.
        That is NOT overwieght gold, they buying large just because they are large.
        Might sound simple, but they dont need to be planning the reserve currency for example with that #, more logical if they were planning the reserve currency would be say..20%,30% maybe.
        Their purchases of mines around the world are part of their remaining 90%.(means nothing more than that) They buying everything, not just gold,they just buying anything they can get their hands on.
        They seem to be doing exactly as Oleary does, their purchases could mean nothing more than anyone elses, insurance, not investment at all.

        This calculation to me confirms my thinking about their buying, they only going to conciously increase buying gold around $1000. Wether it get there or not that should be the floor. Otherwise, I would expect them to continue as they are, no increase or decrease. Why?

        Your right, their 2% is BS, why they would say that?no idea. But 5-10% gold is not out of line in the least. Same as any other multi billionare invester. I bet even Buffet has 5-10%

        Thanks alot Bird.

          Dec 19, 2013 19:42 PM

          You are welcome, B. I think they are buying out of proportion actually and not coming clean with intentions. Obviously they are protecting themselves against a serious future decline in currency holdings whether they be dollars or Euros or Yen. Who can blame them really? They sold actual labour, time and resource assets in the form of material inputs in exchange for money that is being steadily devalued over time. All major currencies are falling together. They figured that out quite awhile back. We should not be surprised to eventually learn that they have as much as 8% of their foreign income tied up in precious metals (including silver by the way). And lets not forget copper. The Chinese are the largest hoarder on earth. As Al asks below……now why would they be doing that? I do incidentally believe commodities are going to reverse their falling trend in 2014. Gold will benefit but it is certainly not the only metal to be buying. Others are even more enticing.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:53 PM

            “Obviously they are protecting themselves against a serious future decline in currency holdings whether they be dollars or Euros or Yen.”

            And there you have it boys and girls!

            Dec 19, 2013 19:05 PM

            I am sure you agree, Al. The sovereign debt crisis is still in its early stages as far as I can tell. All we have seen so far are the early stages of crisis that are being stage managed to buy more time. Greece is heading back for more baolouts menawhile. Iceland is back on the ropes. Ireland is still getting screwed….and more angry than ever and then we have the assortment of France, Spain and others who if they tax one more Euro will just implode economically. It is a disaster in the making. Those are just the big names and more are coming each month. We are just one bank crisis away from tipping the whole lot into insolvency.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:09 PM

        And you gotta ask yourself Bird, why are they doing that!

          Dec 19, 2013 19:47 PM

          For exactly the same reason that the biggest finds in oil and gas are now being located in the US, Australia, Canada and England, al. All of these ideas are connected. At the end of the day, money is still found primarily in resource wealth whether that be easily traded metals like gold, platinum and silver or in essential commodities like oil.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:18 PM

            I think you are absolutly right Bird, My point was just their gold purchases are not out of line. Some people suggest china wants a reserve currency with its implications for example, they suggest there is somthing secret. Being totaly inline would suggest otherwise. Secret as to how much gold they have? I dont tell anyone how much I have either. Totaly normal.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:37 PM

            A lot of the players are keeping their cards close to their chest when it comes to gold. The US won’t audit, China won’t admit and even the Swiss are pretty secretive. There are more mysteries than good answers. We are hearing about empty vaults lately now…..very interesting stuff. We will no doubt have answers eventually.

            Dec 19, 2013 19:54 PM

            Yup, couldn’t agree more, Bird!

          Dec 19, 2013 19:38 PM

          I completely agree with you Bird that “We are just one bank crisis away from tipping the whole lot into insolvency”.

          Can you guess why we hold gold and silver? Do you need a hint?

          Dec 19, 2013 19:59 PM

          Al, one thing did change since early 2000: fracking. The US is now a much larger energy producer thus providing some strength to the dollar. If the trend continues we can become a net exporter of energy. How does that impact the dollar long term especially as we become less of an importing nation?

    Dec 19, 2013 19:04 AM

    Have you ever watched a newly castrated dog stumble down the street and then curl up like a potato bug in the fetal position and then do some floor dancing?

      Dec 19, 2013 19:19 AM

      Yeah, the gold bugs from 1981 to 2006.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:47 AM

        Had don’t get too excited. It’s called a correction. 1980 was a blow off top. When bulls reach 97% that typically ends a bull. It never happened in 2011. It’s called a correction.
        Howz Bitcoin? It lost 55% in dayz…

          Dec 19, 2013 19:13 PM

          Absolutely correct about the blow off top, Billy!

        Dec 19, 2013 19:12 PM

        I did okay during those years har! Remember what I have always said about diversification!!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:47 PM

      No Fred, I have never seen that.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:15 AM

    I think if we break the june low, $1180, then we could get a fast break all the way down to about the $1000 level. This is where the long reverse head and shoulder broke out. After that it could stay sideways for quite a while, even a few years.
    Theres no telling.
    This dance with the stocks and the FED could go on for a very very long time.
    Whose going to rock the boat? No one, not even the Chinese…

      Dec 19, 2013 19:14 PM

      And, The Greater, one could argue that the dance if it never ended would be a good thing. I just find it difficult to understand how that could happen. But then again, I can sleep through just about anything because we are diversified.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:15 AM

    DT says we could be surprised in 2014. I agree. But it might be an unpleasant surprise…

    Dec 19, 2013 19:33 AM

    All the guessing is a waist of time I think. The bear trend has not changed. Same for the general indexes. Until they break it’s all talk. Going sideways in a bear market is equivalent of a bull move.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:16 PM

      Bottom line Billy, one could consider it kind of a waste of time. But the reason I am keeping it up is not because I am looking for consensus but because within all the talk a solution will come up.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:59 PM

        Fair Enough AL; I read because I like to see the sentiment of the folk.
        As always it will always swing further than one can imagine.

          Dec 19, 2013 19:55 PM

          Yep Billy, it could very well do just that!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:17 AM

    “After the drop in gold this morning Gary says $1,030 is back on the table”
    Man! Gary is all over the map. These calls are getting to be bipolar. We need more meds for Christmas or a higher dosage!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:27 AM

      Bird: are u the only one here that has a clue!?
      I have a few guy’s that have had it correct for sometime…yrs and they ain’t buying. The QE crack is still on side of the markets.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:32 AM

        I have good company here, Billy. I really appreciate most of these guys. Today I am ribbing Gary a little. He should have stuck with his original call because it wasn’t bad actually. Even Goldman was calling for year end gold at 1050 or so as I recall. And we all know that was an order!

          Dec 19, 2013 19:51 AM

          No doubt Bird. I’m just trying to keep it real here. To much gold fairy dust is dangerous. You can’t fight the market it always wins. As Matt points out there are a couple stocks trying to bottom but that’s about it. I am getting more optimistic as gold heads south. Here’s a good call from ML: Top G timer for eons:
          Bottom line: I’m a long-
          term bull, but the bear’s claws are still clinging on. In the chart above a
          bearish head-and-shoulders pattern is highlighted. Generally speaking,
          this pattern projects lower prices, lower prices confirmed once the low of
          either the left or right shoulder is broken. In this instance, such a break
          would translate into a push down into the 1050-1100 range

            Jan 31, 2014 31:41 PM

            Fri, December 19, 2008 19:18To: “Ioannis Zabetakis” izabet@chem.uoa.grΕίστε όντως καθηγητής ή είναι πλακα;=================================μετά από αυτή την απίστευτη απάντηση τι να υποθέσω κ. Πρετεντέρη?είστε τόσο … ???ή μήπως τόόόσοοο …???

          Dec 19, 2013 19:55 AM

          Also from another guy that I TRUST: Once gold bottoms, there is no question in my mind — zero doubt — that it will hit $5,000 an ounce, and probably higher, just a few years from now.”
          I sold $300K of Bullion at$1260.00. I will use that powder to but stocks if all my light go green…

    Dec 19, 2013 19:37 AM

    Hey China. Huge Christmas sale on gold. Come on over, sell your useless US bonds & treasuries and clean out the crimex. Don’t forget to send the banksters a thank you card.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:51 AM

    Gary was for $1030 gold before he was against it.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:53 PM

      Nice logic there!?

        Dec 19, 2013 19:18 PM

        Logic Billy?

        Damn, bit my tongue again!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:33 PM

    Gary was for $1030 gold before he was against it. WHAAAAAAAAAT?!
    I don”t have to change my mind everyday AL.
    $1186 better hold but it most likely won’t. Cash makes money when your target is heading south. Most likely a bottom in Jan.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:30 PM

    Gold went up for 10 years without QE, right??

    So there is no fundamental reason why gold would not continue higher even with zero QE.

    Yes???? Why not???

      Dec 19, 2013 19:39 PM

      When I talked to JFT hedge fund. He said the world was good then and then we crashed. The worlds different now and there will be no big demand for commodities.
      Hes been spot on.
      PS he sold 3 month befor the crash.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:57 PM

        I disagree that the world was good then. Gold really started rising because is was time. It was over for stocks as the Nasdaq collapsed and the Dow began its plunge from nearly 45 ounces of gold. Then, deficit spending was the chosen means to finance the attack on Iraq. As if deficit spending wasn’t bad enough, the situation was made even worse for the dollar with the tax cuts. Gold, commodities, real estate, stocks, and bonds didn’t go up in real terms through 2008, the dollar just went down. If QE is stopped completely, gold will be more than just fine.
        I was short the S&P with leverage heading into September, 2008. I sold gold from about $1800 to exactly $1910 (but not all of it).

          Dec 19, 2013 19:40 PM

          Gotta ask yourself Matthew, has anything really changed since early in the past decade? I don’t think so!

      Dec 19, 2013 19:57 PM

      That is one of the points that John Kaiser made in an earlier conversation we had today!

    […] Click here Written by Gold Scents […]

    Dec 19, 2013 19:50 PM

    All the reasons for buying gold haven’t held up, so why repeat the same old cliches, Wiemar Republic, Federal debt explosion, “it’s the only true money”; that’s a laugh. Sure one day it will be worth much more, but by that time everything will be more expensive, but we won’t experience hyperinflation, just a steady eating away of our substance by elite creeps who have the NSA to give them the advantage over everybody else using the same old vilified dollar to buy up the world while gold bugs sit in the dark clutching their gold and silver. Gary is an imbecile.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:08 PM

      Here’s something interesting about debt. Take a look at the charts here:$1,200.html

      The first chart shows that federal debt grew from $412B in 1971 to $15,222B in 2011 —a 37 fold increase. The second chart shows that total credit market debt grew from $1,657B in 1971 to $53,558B in 2011 —a 32 fold increase. From 1971 to today, gold is up 34 fold ($35–$1190). In 2011, gold was up 55 fold. So, maybe gold just got ahead of itself and today’s price reflects a market that now thinks the demise of the system is unlikely. King and the guest did not discuss this.

        Dec 19, 2013 19:43 PM

        I am firmly convinced Matthew that the “leaders” are doing everything in their power to make people believe that the demise of the system is unlikely. That is exactly why I said prior to the official announcement that tapering would be announced on Wednesday.

    Dec 19, 2013 19:52 PM

    I didn’t mean to say Gary ever said that we need to buy gold or silver any time soon for the reasons I just stated: goldbug cliches. But I do think he is an imbecile for believing his own shaky reasoning regarding why gold goes up or down.

      Dec 19, 2013 19:44 PM

      I will repeat Mark, I listen to absolutely everyone and then I make up my own mind!

    Dec 19, 2013 19:30 PM

    When I said Gary was for $1030 gold before he was against it it was a reference to John Kerry, you know, he was for the war before he was against it. Flip flop

    Dec 19, 2013 19:10 PM

    Did Gary Savage ever read Aristotle and the law of non-contradiction? Something can not be X and not-X at the same time. So if I buy gold here and sell gold here at the same time, then I’ve got broken logic.