Wednesday and The Doctor Is In
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PG, I’m doing a slow self education course. I found it fascinating that Lucas came out with the fibonacci numbers series a well. I hope he’ll accept a little deviation from his series this time around for the PMs. I think it is possible that the stocks could deviate if the PMs move lower. In fact there is historical precedence for it. I’ll continue to play around and learn more with the Lucas number series. It’ll just be another adjunct to the technicals I watch. Thanks again.
DOC AND ALL – MUST LISTEN TO:
Check out IAN GORDON athttp://jaytaylormedia.com/audio/…This is in NUTSHELL exactly what I am expecting to happen……FWIW…very, very sobering….
OOPS, my link isnt working sorry..but check it out….very very worthwhile!
Ian GORDON:”ITS THE DEBT STUPID”…:)….BTW…Ian Gordon’s take on the PETRO DOLLAR
What you think on Barkerville Gold ? Marc ore ?????
Still can’t pull up the link…..
Gator,
just go to http://www.jaytaylormedia.com. PLUS, Listen to Michael Oliver…also…..sorry – man!
I know Ian personally and he is a nice guy.
Hey Doc
Silver hit 19 and that is one of the targets and I have started adding to my silver positions as I believe they will diverge for a bit, if they don’t and follow the metals down this summer, no option but to add. Check out Yamaha gold $12 down $14 up and $12 – correction complete today from the top in 2008.
Pg; I’ve been following AUY. It’s one of the 2 stocks that I mentioned as being the ultimate ones that will tell me we’ve bottomed. There’s a very long term uptrend line for Yamana currently at about $5.80. Yamana is currently at about $7.48. There’ some technicals yet that favor a drop yet to about $6.00 and others that are signaling we could be bottoming here. I’m staying away from a falling knife right now but am anticipating a move when I feel there’s a solid bottom.
Yes I know the lower target but man does it look great on a monthly chart. Take a look at I am gold … Another nice chart
Thanks
Funny that you brought up IAG—-not investment advice but I bought some today.
Doc-I study charts all day long and some of these mining stocks are too good not to take a small position and knowing that they go to your lower target, in the hope of buying more. I believe we could spend the next 12 months bouncing up and down putting in first and second waves and when that wave 3 of 3 of 3 comes, it will take most investors by complete surprise. I also study Elliot Wave and many I the technicals to make sense of this mess 🙂
Thanks, you should set up a twitter account so many of your listeners can stay in touch.
Hey Doc
Silver hit 19 and that is one of the targets and I have started adding to my silver positions as I believe they will diverge for a bit, if they don’t and follow the metals down this summer, no option but to add. Check out Yamaha gold $12 down $14 up and $12 – correction complete today from the top in 2008.
Hey there Doc – if you want to see a real divergence in the commodity sector, take a look at the spot price of Uranium at $30, same price as 2004-05 but the worlds largest producer CCJ – Cameco, diverging as nowhere near 2004-05 price. Great supply/demand fundamentals going forward.
Where can one find some thorough discussion and rigourous examination of these “Bradley turn dates”? Upon what premise(s) are they founded ?
Just have to google and take it from there.
Fed Tapers Another $10 Billion to $45 Billion/Month
April 30, 2014 By The Doc 5 Comments
◾Bernanke taperFed meets expectations, Tapers another $10 billion, down to $45 billion in asset purchases/ month
◾Beginning in May, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $20 billion per month rather than $25 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $25 billion per month rather than $30 billion per month
Gold & silver spiking on the release…we suspect the smash is imminent
Full April FOMC Statement is below: [Read more…]
silverdoc
considering there are approximately 7 million foreclosuresin the pipeline , added to the already 9 million……….they will not need to much more money to mop up the housing debacle .
let’s consider the average house is $300,000…….x 7,000,000 units……
that is $21 00000000000 divided by $45 000,000,000 ….IS HOW MANY MONTHS.
46.6 MONTHS…….TO COMPETION………
I think they are not going to get out of this mess anytime soon……..and or, they have to start writing off some bad loan debts…………….and then you have 16million unit, that are on the market, with, renters in them………bought by the Hedge funds……and rented to unemployed youth……or welfare people, who the govt. will rent these unit to at a subsidized rate, that the remaining TAX PAYER OF APPOX 48 MILLION WILL get to share in the loss……………
Maybe, that is why they are adding 4,400 NEW TAX LAWS EACH YEAR……..
Are you sure about those numbers?
the only one would be the cost of the mortgaged asset(?)…….of $300,000, AND I think that was the number which was prevailing in 07. Which is most likely conservative.
If FANNY AND FREDDIE,,,,are now clear or BR., and have paid the American tax payer back……….where, did they get the money………
or should be of…………
we still have a can of worms……..in the real estate sector……..and that is not going to change for a while…………Another note……..What happen to the 20 million vacant units , which were in the market a couple of years ago?………Shadow inventory, that no one is talking about…..and still on the market or in process of bank forclosure.
Just found out that most of the folks in our little corner of the world paid twice what we did for our little palace!
When did they buy………it must have been around 07…….because , I was saying in 06 the incomes did not match the prices……….there were not that many millionairs to account for all the million dollar units being sold……..or even the $600 plus units.
should be $600k…….
TODAY……..ZEROHEDGE………..1 0UT OF 3 HOUSES ARE AFFORDABLE……..
Freddie Mac going to start loaning on TRAILERS……..
THAT should read 1 of 3 is UNAFFORDABLE….
Change of subject, does anyone know anything about Gold Standard Ventures in Nevada. From what I can see they are consoladating an area in northern Nevada and are starting a drill program.
NOt investment advice Gary, I have heard great things about this company. I do not own any shares in it.
If you want, I am happy to send you the telephone number of an individual who does know the company.
Thanks Al, I will email you, Gary
Al, my email is on your list, wilsongary and so on and so on. I tried emailing you at al@kereport.com, but it came back to me. Thanks for the help.
Send it to alkorelin@gmail.com
I like it and own it.
Any more input on IMPACT silver, Matthew..Do u still hold shares?
Yes, I am again loaded up. The best is still ahead for IMPACT.
Thanks
The DOW posts an all time high, maybe it’s a good time to buy isn’t that what the heard will do. The market is readjusting itself into a more secure position. Nothing but ” Blue Skies Do I See”.
North Americans have an obsession with Bull Market prosperity it is in their national psyche. It will end not with a whimper but a bang!
Make sure you own something outright that isn’t connected to a leveraged deal or you will lose all.
If you really expand the terms leverage to include the ability of someone or something to take something away (tax lien for example) there is not a lot left. (gold and silver)
Hopefully, Machine Gun
Gold and silver trading limits….it’s always for our good….hee….hee…hee
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-29/cme-group-considering-gold-silver-futures-daily-trading-limits.html
Very interesting. Now, the question is….. are they “serious” or was this… just maybe…. a “test the waters” planted story to see what sort of reaction they elicit?? Trust NOTHING planted by Bloomberg!
I would not worry about the chart too much Doc. It is just meant to scare you into indecision. Silver is becoming increasing a good play from my viewpoint. Been a long time since I said that but there ya go.
Hello Birdman
I am hoping for a strong up move for silver as well. All the usual reasons why including COMEX and Shanghi getting reserves depleted, the increasing risks to firms manipulating Silver, the demands at the US Mint, the bearing attitude and of course it’s many uses
My concerns are that it is grinding down slowly with no decernible pattern. Also what if China is slowing and doesn’t need as much. I am curious as to a reason that you see to think the future looks bright here? I believe in silver but fear I am blinded. What thoughts do you or any board member have to support a move up?
Regards
Goldman
“…. it is grinding down slowly with no decernible pattern”. “[G]rinding down slowly” sounds like a pattern to me, just one with little or no shape. Never dismiss something as “not a pattern” just because it isn’t the one you wanted to see.
Why are you so hot on it now, Bird?
I started writing you an answer but realized it was going to be so lengthy that nobody would even bother reading it. I could easily knock off a couple thousand words in an attempt to do justice to answering your innocent sounding question but past experience has shown such efforts are not usually rewarding (because nobody typically responds!). Lets just say the commodity cycle is only midstream and that it is my belief we will have quite significant inflation imposed on us due to major conflicts arising and various policy tinkering that will be drivers behind precious metals, a flight to hard assets and good or better collateral. There is going to be a reckoning. Some currencies will fail altogether. Sovereign debt crisis should become a major feature of our discussions here in the future and in the end, longer term, we are heading for a global supranational currency regime that encompasses the majority of nations. Gold is destined to become quite a bit more meaningful although I do not expect any new currency to be literally gold backed. Rather, some commodities including gold will represent a component (a fraction) in the structuring of new reserve currency based around SDR’s. That component is going to be essential if an emerging world currency is to gain widespread support and be adopted by the leading trade nations and the financial sectors. The importance of some percentage of collateral backing cannot be understated and I expect a hybrid to emerge that takes this into account as it would provide one means of creating checks and balances in the system and put some restraints on those countries who might endanger the system by opening monetary spigots. Anyway, enough blithering. I don’t have the energy to get into this in detail today other than to add that I expect gold confiscations in some countries as governments and Central Banks attempt to fortify themselves for the new regime. The public’s outlet will be directed at golds poorer brother and thus silver should perform exceptionally well as an outcome.
On an unrelated topic, John Kerry landed in Ethiopia last night. This is the 50th anniversary year of the African Union and he is here to reinforce political and economic ties to the worlds fastest growing countries. Addis Ababa is the seat of the AU and is considered the gateway to Sub Saharan Africa. Ethiopia incidentally was led by a communist government between 1987 and 1991 and had developed very close ties with the Soviet Union during that time. Many of its doctors, business people and professional class were schooled in Cuba and Russia during those years and economic ties were close. For example, they still fly MIG’s here rather than the F series US fighters that are popular elsewhere. Not that military jets or war making contracts are on the agenda. I seriously doubt that. Growth is strong across all East Africa and conflict is growing less and less likely as prospects for economic development are increasing. Readers in North America and elsewhere need to understand that this is probably one of the most positive areas of the world right now as it is experiencing a dynamic period of growth that is more conducive to expanding trade relationships in the region than it is to reigniting conflicts of the past. But that just makes sense. Peace typically breaks out as prosperity grows and few want to derail the very positive developments that have been seen these past few years. Although I have not heard details of the meetings yet it is easy to imagine expanded trade relationships as being on the agenda and efforts to strengthen past relationships against a backdrop of conflicts that are brewing in other parts of the world.
Ive really only heard a couple things about Etheopia, they have a diversity of foods grown in “old” ways. This protects food supplies.
The Ark of the Covanent is rumoured to be hidden and protected there.
And I once listened to a woman speaking Aramic(sp) from Ethiopia, I wanted to hear the language Jesus spoke. Said to have anyway, always thought anyone “studying” Jesus would want to at least hear how he sounded.
Always appreciate your posts Bird.
I would recommend a book called “The Case for Christ” for you. We are currently discussing it in our Bible Study.
No sweat b. Glad you appreciate the news from yonder. Amharic is mind numbing by the way. People say it is the most difficult language known to man. Their verbs change continuously for past, present and future tenses as well as according to who is being addressed. Like Hebrew except 10 times harder. The alphabet is just huge too. There is not a hard and fast rule set for verbs so there is a lot of rule breaking along the way and plenty of slang to warp your mind. Takes a lot of memorization and a willingness to be constantly humiliated by all the mistakes newbies make. Chinese is a cinch by comparison I have heard. I have never head this was the language of Christ though even though it is Semetic in origin.
Could be wrong, but I believe that it was.
Maybe not in my lifetime, but I think that the evolution of the African countries will be very interesting.
Bird, are you sure you didn’t read Rickards book?
Personaly Im not concerned about confiscation.
I just cant see it having much effect on the average “joe”
altho I see it possible that etfs or cef might be vulnerable.
No, I did not read Rickards book. I have recently hear some of his interviews though. Very interesting stuff to me and a great deal of it confirms my own thoughts that I have been discussing right here on this site for more than a year.
lol, I know you didn’t read his book, you just seem to see things the way Rickards does, drawing very similar conclusions.
Like minds perhaps…either that or he is using my material!!!!
I agree with you regarding silver.
Reading between the lines, I think that you are somewhat bearish in the short term. To me short term makes no differences and we are looking at a couple of other investment avenues. Am currently selling nothing of any consequence in my resource portfolio and will never sell an physical.
Bird, I agree—-as I mentioned, silver stocks didn’t even flinch. I believe something is up. It’s good to hear you feel the same way. I value that.
As I also appreciate your opinion Doc. My Spidey senses are tingling on silver lately.
Doc,
I know this particular segment is mostly centered around the PM outlook but I would be interested in hearing your analysis on the effects that could take place in the commodity markets if a serious reduction in QE is implemented by the FED, it is on the table and people are not taking this element of reduced currency expansion serious to a large degree.
All the current Yellen talk about curtailing QE because things are strengthening economically overall is complete hogwash and I know that everyone here knows that. The truth id the FED has reached a point where a negative feedback loop has the monetary scheme in the jaws of death and is feeding on itself exacerbating potential insolvencies of pension funds and insurance companies and the financial instruments they hold. Even the Feds balance sheet is in deep trouble.
No one is really talking much about a massive reduction in QE counter-fitting operations. We have a good idea what will happen. Picture a nuclear bomb explosion against a back drop of an already weakened market complex that is hooked on the Fed’s counter-fitting operations never ending.
The FED is completely boxed in with QE to infinity. They risk blowing the insurance companies and pension funds and themselves completely out of the water. They are going to have to stop the crack cocain induced high of QE monetary debasement at some point.
And that point is fast approaching and the Fed is damned if they do and damned if they don’t. We long ago passed the point that this ponzi freak show of a nations monetary shenanigans can be saved, rebuilt or ever paid back.
Vortex, what I find interesting right now is that with QE tapering and a “strong” economy, the dollar is looking very suspect and heavy. Is the dollar starting to tell us something? Is it getting ready to break down since it may sense our economy is weakening again instead of strengthening? I would have thought that the dollar would be strengthening with the taper—-I believe a lot of other analysts suspected as much and were predicting a strengthening dollar going back almost 4 months ago. Obviously, their predictions haven’t played out yet. Could it be on the international scene that ongoing new trade agreements cutting out the dollar are starting to have an affect? As mentioned, technically, the dollar is looking very suspect right now.
Thanks Doc, excellent content!
V
Since everyone on this site is entitled to a forecast I am publishing my “official” gold and silver forecast here.
No hedging. No games. No play by play.
My official gold forecast:
Gold had a great run last decade, up 12 years in a row.
To my knowledge no other asset has ever gone up 12 years in a row.
So it is only reasonable and even healthy that gold had a correction in 2013.
However what concerns me is the depth and length of this correction.
Honestly after gold hit $1900 I was expecting a correction back down to around $1700 for a few months and then the resumption of the bull. Obviously this did not play out.
So where are we now?
I believe we may very well be near, even at the bottom for gold.
However I see nothing on the horizon right now to act as a catalyst for higher gold prices.
With that said I am neutral to buy on gold depending on your risk tolerance, time frame and objectives.
If you don’t own any gold and you have a long term time frame (5 years) I would recommend buying a little gold (5% to 10%.) You might not catch the exact bottom but you should be close.
If you already own gold, my recommendation is to hold.
You have already lived through most, if not all, of the correction.
I do not recommend selling any gold.
From here on in, gold should serve you well, if for no other reason than it is a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against unforeseen scenarios.
The spectacular gains may be behind us and future gains may not come to fruition but you shouldn’t be burned holding it either.
My official silver forecast:
If there’s one thing you can say about silver it keeps you’re pulse racing!
Up to $50. Down to $19.
Silver is all over the map.
Sometimes the information you hear and absorb last is the information that weighs the most in your decision process. This can be a fatal mistake.
I guess you can call this recency bias, or in horse racing parlance, what have you done for me lately.
For 12 I digested every article I could get me hands on regarding gold and silver.
I weighed all the information and formed my opinion.
During the run up to $48 I read an article by an author who was expounding the principle of when an asset class is suppressed for so long the higher it will go when it breaks out.
His theory was the longer it takes an asset to get back to its old high, the bigger the breakout will be when it hits it’s old high.
He used the illustration of holding a ball underwater.
You can hold the ball underwater for so long, and eventually when you let go it will explode higher.
This was his opinion regarding silver. After decades of not getting back to its old high he reasoned when it did it would break through.
This was the last article that had the most influence in my mind.
I thought about it and agreed with his thesis.
However as you know silver didn’t break out but instead broke down.
So where are we now?
I believe silver is a dead asset.
I believe silver had it’s moment in the sun and now needs to wait for its turn to come again.
And that time may be far far off.
I believe the run up to $48 was a once in a generational bubble and the bubble has popped.
I believe silver now needs to consolidate, base, and literally become forgotten again.
This could take years.
I am also not sure we are even close to a bottom in silver.
Silver could break down all the way back down to $4 if we stay on this course of slow to no growth.
My recommendation is stay out of silver.
If you own silver proceed at your own risk.
Be prepared to live with the consequences if it breaks down.
You need to claim the principle the higher the risk the greater the reward.
Can it turn up? Yes. But I see nothing on the horizon to give me any confidence it will.
It is an extremely risky asset and not for the faint of heart.
james, the #1 driver for silver is inflation, period!
When silver rose…well took off….mid 2010 to its 2011 highs the CRB index in the same timeframe rose from 247 to 370-high….Oil rose from $70 to $114-high the US$ fell from 83 to 72-low and Copper rose from $2.47 to $4.65-high
Obama is now looking at taxing every federal highway (google it) the governments of the world are all looking to tax the shit out of everything, that is 100%, NOT inflationary in any way.
A recent guest here on Al’s show, a 30+ professional trader someone who trades to survive, not some armchair QB investor….today his update regarding silver.
I have to agree that the deflationary effects of rising taxes, higher medical and insurance plus a decline in the volume and breadth of public supports (bye bye subsidies) are huge hazards going forward. I also think that steps will be taken from a policy perspective to mitigate those negatives and we will get the inflation that is desired no matter how much it hurts. That or we get a war and trade collapses which is another way of saying we will definitely have too many dollars chasing too few goods. Try and imagine war breaking out in Asia. Shipping could grind to a halt. If Japan and China actually come to blows that could become a crisis for the whole globe, not just the US who rely upon spare parts for example.
Birdman,
The world is experiencing some inflationary pressures but most people are still oblivious to the massive deflationary forces that are lurking out there and could be unleashed in the right kind of disruptive event.
It would be very hard to control such an unwinding and there would be very little left standing. People are just too lackadaisical about the deflationary destruction of a world wide cascading insolvency and deleveraging catastrophe taking place.
At some point a massive powerful deleveraging of the system will have to take place on some level.
This is Jim Sinclair’s great leveling analogy and it is a hugely deflationary event in its scope.
V
Thanks Original, we have a lot of time for Peter.
James,
My offer still stands at $1.50 over spot for your entire physical holdings….act now before it goes lower…..
Wow, Gator!!!
Go…MAN…..GOOOO!
I still like it a lot. But you have to remember my timeframe, The Greater. (Infinity for me!)
YOU will have to give a silver dollar for each publication , as in incentive to start.
Ian Gordon is big on the Kondratieff cycle….and the problem is he’s rarely right….I heard him say in 2010 that everything would collapse in 2011..FWIW
irishtony2
Yep, I heard that too.
Yup, we were supposed to collapse according to a lot f people.
Is it possible the kenysians are right?
All ya need to do is print.
I don’t think so but I was once mistaken In 1963, so I cant be sure.
I remember well as it was a foggy day.
1963???, bb
Gator – we will see soon enough
look out below
Naaa…that shows been done already, James.
birdman – not sure I follow.
people are offering to buy my silver as if they had a crystal ball, very foolish
I said look out below because I really don’t like the action in silver at all
absolutely cant win for losing right now
it is clearly breaking down
I am deadly earnest when I say it could grind all the way back down to $4
James, IMO $4 Silver is a pipe dream because if that were to happen basically all mining operations would stop dead. HST, I don’t think that $15 is out of the question.
If one of a multitude of crazy financial events anywhere in the world were to unfold and a liquidity problem cropped up again, I don’t think $11-$13 would be an outragious view.
Gotta disagree, The Greater.
right now we are literally falling thorugh every support level in silver without a fight.
$20
$19
$18 handle next
it is getting very very ugly
I believe people are going to start jumping ship on silver.
Those guys that are eager to buy, there should be a lt available soon at much cheaper prices!
We are now on the eve of destruction for gold and silver!
Not for the long run!
The gold price on Tuesday continued to hover below the $1,300 an ounce level, down more than $80 an ounce from 2014 highs reached mid-March.
US investment bank Morgan Stanley added to the negative sentiment, forecasting the gold price to average $1,250 this quarter, decline to an average $1,168 in the second half of 2014 and weaken further to $1,138 next year.
The commodity analysts at Morgan Stanley are quoted in Barron’s blog that record demand from China “won’t be enough to keep gold’s price above $1,200 per ounce in the coming year, much less help it rise”.
The bank blames a slide in the value of the Chinese currency, the yuan, against the US dollar for weakening demand.
Signs of a drop-off in the world’s top importer of gold are already visible:
Mainland China’s net imports totaled 80.6 tonnes in March, a 27% drop compared to the 111.4 tonnes imported in February.
Compared to the same time last year the drop-off was even more stark – down 38% from the record 130 tonnes in March 2013.
Another indication that there are fewer buyers in China is the disappearance of premiums paid on the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
JP Morgan sounds like they agree with you James
I don’t bb, au seems to be stubbornly holding up somewhat.
James,
Who are you trying to convince?. You posted at 5:05, 6:07 and the 6:51 replying to your own post each time I don’t get your reasoning to talk own an asset class that you claim to be a 17,000oz owner. If you Sell now and then buy back at your projected low you can buy yourself a nice horse with the difference.
This worrying you do will give you gas
Sleep well
Goldman
Doc SLV “closed” Below a very key trendline Wed a support area that has held 5 times since June of 2013…its now a major resistance level, how anyone can be seeing a bullish trend on the chart, bullish excitement, is beyond me!!
Silver closes below $19.00 it will be only the 4th time since 2011 highs,(last summer lows) and that’s Bullish????????
Pass over what ever you guys are smoken…..no actually I’ll pass thanks!
Ye of little faith! The lows of June 2013 were 18.24 spot and we could see drops to that area yet. Below that is certainly troubling however. In general I won’t worry unless we actually fall to 18.00 or less. May Day was not kind to metals last year (Mayday, Mayday!!!) nor was the entire month positive however it need not necessarily repeat. This is a wait and see time as crucial targets may still change the outlook for the year.
I don’t make any money based on faith Birdman, how’s that faith approach working for the always buy goldnsilver bugs?……….these past 2 years?
May typically is a very strong month for the sector, well not since 2011
The Yaun got smacked again overnight which for the so called always buying always creating the faith bottom in gold in silver out of China well that’s put pressure on the average citizen converting their weaker currency to buy the US$ priced gold and silver…just as it effected India buyers when the rupee devalued…and gold and silver trended lower.
Time to go see what KWNuts latest to da moon call is all about, lol
Oh Lord, you sound like me. I have been a bear for three long years and no, I do not follow KWN or the other all-bulls, all-day gold sites. It is merely my opinion that we are near or at the bottom. Won’t take long to find out in any case so stay tuned. Maybe by next week at the latest so there won’t be a whole lot of drama or discussion between here and there. LOL!
I made good money out of January but nearly reached the puke point this morning because I bought in too early AGain! \;-/
Back in the day Birdman I would be a buyer at these oversold levels, BUT that was when momentum was at our backs, 2002-2011…this is clearly a Bear market gold and silver are trading in so that approach gets one very long and very wrong position wise.
I just find it like I’m living within the movie GroundHog Day…every time the precious metals market gets a decent short covering the pomp pomps come out, and every breakout gets reversed to lower lows and lower highs…..it was only weeks ago every expert was calling for $1420….yet once again sub $1400 was it, that’s not a sign in anyway of the return of momentum buyers in the sector.
Interesting times indeed…..I wonder at what price just as I did when gold was $1900 when will the sheeple pile in to gold because that bull run from 2000-2011 was the most hated bull market ever….so what price will those that always have the “end of the world” outlook realize….$10,000 gold and $150 silver is a joke just as the like of Casey was calling for $2000 in 1980……….interesting times!
Ever stop and think about the correlation between outlandish statements and growth of income?
Indeed! These are interesting times jj. I absolutely agree we are still in a bear market. I could be dead wrong that these levels will hold too. Honestly, if they do not then the outlook is quite dismal because we have a couple dollars of dead air space below 18 bucks. That will be one hell of a reckoning for this beaten up market and there is little doubt gold will go back and retest its lows if silver drops like that. In the gold space a lot of people discuss the idea of a “final capitulation” price but frankly nobody really knows where that price lies. It could be 1050 gold or it could be my own call of a bottom at 968…..or it could be something quite a bit more frightening that results in straight up mine closures. I imagine a real capitulation would be when few of us return to sites like Al’s for a daily discussion and the balance of the ragged, beaten herd of hard core owners just give up in disgust and sell or bury their hoard in the backyard until the next cycle arrives. We are as near the moment of reckoning now as we have been in three years….just days or weeks could tell us all we need to know.
Gotta repeat, I didn’t realize they were that one sided in their discussions. That is silly.
“KWNuts” –that was intelligent. “lol”
Birdman, I’m holding onto the fact the 1970’s gold run had a 50% correct during its move before (KWNuts wording) rocketing higher into 1980….50% is $961…
I sure hope a grind lower, a death of a 1000 cuts is not in play here as that kills not only the bulls but those who play the short side aswell something I’ve done successfully since $1525 fell.
I’m not in the camp that even if Gold was trading at $961 suggests its time to back up the truck, why we get there and how imo will determine because if the world is in full stagflation mode we could sit sub $1000 for a very long time, until something gives….and the powers at be have been very good at keeping that day a bay…..if anyone would have told me 6 years later rates were at 0% I’d say your nuts!
That 50% retracement is not a bad theory actually. Price comes close to my worst case scenario. The death of a thousand cuts line kind of cracked me up. All I can say is thank GOD I got out back when I did. Right near the top. The angels were smiling on me then! So unlike others here who are suffering quite badly I have no skin in the game as far as physical ownership goes. Like you mentioned once before….this is still a traders game playing both ends for better or for worse. Never a dull day though is there?
Any trader that claims Luck is not part of a successful portfolio is a liar.
I held a very large position in uranium when Cigar lake flooded, insane returns that week and that was 110% pure luck!
Glad at least one person here, there and everywhere is willing to admit that!
Thanks!
Yeah, I recall that Cigar Lake disaster like it was yesterday. Was living not that far South of it at the time and knew guys who were working up there until it shut down. Bad luck is right. Did you hold or sell?
Back when Eric Sprott couldn’t do anything wrong and I was a client he wrote this:
http://sprott.com/media/33877/09_2004.pdf
U308 was $14 at the time and he was calling for $100 so in the fall of 2004 I loaded up and rode it to $100 in the spring of 2007 as the Cigar lake flood provided a floor and another up shoot to the sector. The main reason I sold was a uranium ETF was created and those ETF’s take a lot of money out of the individual miners, and it did create the top at $130+ yellow cake…..I’ve never been back since and although many are calling for the next boom in uranium it has the same outcome recently as gold and silver overall bearish tone with occasional short covering, Fuckashima changed that sector forever imo….no interest.
The ETF’s have taken billions of $’s out of the individual gold and silver miners aswell, why take a mis-management risk when you can play the pure bullion ETF’s
Does KWN actually always post/discuss that gold is really a to do moon situation. If so, I find that to be silly.
I am on your side of the discussion with you on this one.
Let’s see where it goes. Doc has been pretty right on in the past.
Hey Doc,
Just a quick update on my tarcking of Sivler and Gold – using Lucas Series and Major Bradley turn dates
Most recent highs for silver were $25, $23 and we hit a bottom at $19 ($4 from $23)….Gold bullion has been putting in a bottom over the past 6 years 1 month on either side of a Major Bradley Turn date and the next MBTD is July 16th, so I am expecting a bottom (not the bottom) between June 16th – August 16th. I expect Silver to follow Gold and bottom as well and here are the targets that I am watching for:
Gold – $1087 – 50% correction of entire bull from bottom in 2000 – to top in 2011
Silver – Lucas Series (4,7,11,18…) it will deped on whether $25 or $23 was a top but the ranges are ( $4 drop $19), ($7 drop – $16 and $18), ($11 drop – $12 – $14) and worst case scenario ($18 drop – $5 – $7).
I hope the mining stocks diverge and do not make new lows as that would be a good sign.
Did you have any new fidningss about Lucas Series?
Thanks