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Chris and I discuss the JP Morgan call on the miners.

Big Al
May 14, 2014

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Discussion
80 Comments
    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:32 PM

    OFF TOPIC:
    re; Ukraine:
    Russia is complaining that the US has put mercenaries in Ukraine.

    Now this:
    A troubling new report released by the Ministry of Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM) today states that President Putin has issued a dreaded “Black Notice” to all Russian ministries banning the foreign travel of all “vital and essential” civilian and military persons under the powers granted to him by Articles 87 and 88 of the Constitution.
    The term “Black Notice” is used to describe a Presidential Decree as authorized by Article 90 of the Constitution and has historically only been utilized in times of war or severe national threats such as natural disasters.
    Looks to me, Putin is preparing for war.

    And I’m ashamed of my country’s (US) behavior.

      May 14, 2014 14:37 PM

      Thanks CFS, let’s see how this plays out.

      Hopes and prayers, man!

      May 14, 2014 14:07 PM

      And I am ashamed of the world’s behavior.

        May 14, 2014 14:22 PM

        Most people don’t have the ability to blush, many have the forehead of a harlot.

      May 14, 2014 14:46 PM

      CFS,
      Could you please provide a link?
      I could find nothing about this on the EMERCOM website. Even tried to google it.
      Thanks!
      Jody D

        May 14, 2014 14:00 PM

        CFS, I finally found it. For some reason I can’t add the link, but there are several. Google Putin Black Notice. Duh! Sorry for my absence of brain cells tonight!
        Jody D

        CFS
        May 14, 2014 14:35 PM

        I was reading RT.com news and cpoied the paragraph from that site in the news section. I will go back and try to find the link.
        (Sorry, I have been out shopping, or I would have gotten back to this earlier.)

        CFS
        May 14, 2014 14:45 PM

        http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1770.htm

        is the first site google gives.

        May 14, 2014 14:04 PM

        Hey JODY D.,
        How are ya? Good to see you are still hangin out with us….thing are happenin fast….hang on!

          May 14, 2014 14:35 PM

          Marc,
          Always good to hear from you. It’s been a rough couple of months. Lost my dear Mother in March. She’s with my Dad and and both of my brothers and the Savior now! No more suffering.
          I’m hanging tough! All the best to you and your Family!
          Jody D

            May 14, 2014 14:30 PM

            Jody D,
            U seem real strong…….hang in there and remember…..they are ALL MORE ALIVE THAN EVER…that was my theme of my beloved Uncle’s funeral eulogy I gave for him…and so it is with your family….stay close to ur remaining relatives and dear friends..u will be OK!

            May 14, 2014 14:22 PM

            Condolences to you Jody, A

      May 15, 2014 15:15 AM

      I don’t think Putin and Russia’s allies will have any choice but to prepare for war.
      If they don’t they will be picked off one by one until the neocons and their allies have total control and supremacy. The neocons and their allies will create a total hell on earth with their devil god being worshipped on pain of death. For the good of humanity and christianity the neocons and their allies must be stopped even if it means total war.

    May 14, 2014 14:41 PM

    Conflicted interview. Not sure what to add.

    May 14, 2014 14:42 PM

    What has happened to Rick, by the way? He is missed.

    Jay
    May 14, 2014 14:33 PM

    sooooo JPM is plugging miners while at the same time reducing their long corner in gold andstill retaining a ridiculous short corner in silver? …

      May 14, 2014 14:24 PM

      Naaah, they are plugging miners because there is nothing left to get any juice out of and this is pretty much the bottom of the barrel shopping so its an easy call to make. Should be a good run if the market holds up.

    Jay
    May 14, 2014 14:46 PM

    Btw not sure if any of you guys south of 49 caught this report last night but i was surprised to see this in the mainstream media. GREAT piece on Edward Snowden..
    Regardless of what OUR Governments and media say, this guy is a real American hero

    http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/ID/2456410823/

      CFS
      May 14, 2014 14:41 PM

      Does not play in California!

    Jay
    May 14, 2014 14:52 PM
      CFS
      May 14, 2014 14:40 PM

      Works! Thanks

    bb
    May 14, 2014 14:59 PM

    silver lies and liers on silver doctors

    An interview with David Morgan and others.
    Covers multiple topics, silver,Ukraine,banking Putin.

    Most around hear may have heard parts of it already, its a good one.
    Sry, still having trouble with links.
    But I found it better than expected.
    Really hopeful that this info is getting out there

      CFS
      May 14, 2014 14:40 PM

      I posted the link yesterday

    bb
    May 14, 2014 14:09 PM

    This one is also silverdoc, continueing along Birds theme.

    This week Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visits four African nations: Ethiopia, Nigeria, Angola and Kenya, to boost ties with Africa where Chinese direct investments reached $25 billion in 2013, up 44 per cent from 2008, according to the BRICS post. Li will also meet African Union leaders in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
    Chinese vice-minister for foreign affairs, Zhang Ming, told reporters in Beijing that about 60 agreements will be signed during Li’s trip which ”highlights the great importance we attach to China-Africa relations”.
    Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta has said Li’s visit would be a “game changer” and the region requires “a strong partner who will not only support it in economic ventures but also in peace settlement”.
    China continues to stretch its tentacles out all over the globe in its insatiable lust for resources. [Read more…]

      May 14, 2014 14:20 PM

      That is the headline story bb and it is one that will pass under the radar altogether because few appreciate the significance. What the Chinese are doing here is exactly the same thing most of us at Korelin are attempting to do by closely watching gold.

      They are getting in at the bottom. They are investing wisely for the future too.

      See there is a common thread to the tale of development. You take a populous. agricultural, resource rich nation (or two) that are otherwise impoverished, suffer low levels of education, have poor transport networks and just a thinly developed financial network and put them into a special recipe.

      The recipe calls for school system to be greatly expanded, for infrastructure to be built out, for reform of governance and justice systems and the introduction of democratizing processes. Then you add capital, land reform and enthusiasm from outside investors against a backdrop of low wages and improving social health and literacy campaigns.

      We have all seen this story again and again. We know the basic formula for nation building and development. Look at South East Asia for example. Vietnam, Cambodia and others. How about Malaysia or the Philippines. Look at China itself or the many poor South American countries that took off like rockets on fire from a standing start many years ago.

      See this is not really about talking up one single country or a region (even if it sounded that way to some of you). It is about understanding a process that keeps repeating again and again and represents a great long term value from an investment perspective.

      Especially for those who got in early.

      The process is really familiar to most of us already and takes decades to play out. This one is still in its infancy. It awaits the elixir of life which we call credit to set it on fire though. But that is coming.

      And so what China is doing here goes much deeper than just getting access to resources. They will be a key player in the development process from the bottom right on up which will support their global agendas while building a network of trade partners and allies that could support them for many years to come.

      So this is a story about getting in at the bottom. You have got to see the big picture from decades out to really appreciate how it all works. Honestly, I really don’t think most people get it though. They have all heard the Africa mantra intoned these past couple years.

      Africa, Africa, Africa…..

      But it really sounds like blah, blah, blah to most of them. They remain distant and aloof to the idea. It looks too much like a lost cause from the outside (they always do). And they cannot appreciate how rising education levels and improving health mixed with land reform, a growing banking sector, widespread credit and broad public participation in a progress agenda can drive a renaissance of economic development and growth.

      Until they think about China or other countries that took off like greased lightening once the magic ingredients were all in place. Then the light goes on in their heads. But not everyone has the patience for this kind of story. The time horizon for all the pieces to come together can be 40 or 50 years or longer.

      That is a long wait. I think the Chinese in particular sense the long term opportunity given their own rapid development that has been underway during these past decades. Their involvement here is brilliant, strategic and well thought out as they assist by adding some of the key ingredients for the cooking to turn out well.

      Like I said. We know this story already. Africa is merely the last of regions to join the party. And if China is this interested out of the starting gate you can be damned sure they will want to be at the finish line too.

        May 14, 2014 14:43 PM

        They have been in Africa for years and years now. Buying ports, creating infastructure. They did the same in Brazil and they will push for Russian resources. Africa is easy since the leaders can be bought and like all business in China they build to own and lease not sell. They punch so much money into an economy and create nice ailes in a giant supermarket to suck out raw materials. It takes a lot of resources to turn 800 million peasant farmers into capitalists at the rate of 10-20 million a year. Those ghost cities will be filled soon.

        Just new dorms for the govt plan

        They are not new to Africa. They just are expanding a firm foothold started almost 10 years ago. Of course dumb America allows them to do the same by buying ports. Pig farms and other nater resources. Ate wet they are productive with their Qe. We let a few fat cats get fatter

        May 14, 2014 14:50 PM

        Article from a couple years back This railroad is phase three

        Ports, roads , rails Export and import. Dominance
        http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2168507/Footage-shows-brand-new-Angolan-city-designed-500-000-lying-empty.html

    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:38 PM

    Ukraine issued $1 billion worth of bonds today.
    (To pay its gas bill to Russia)

    The bonds are guaranteed by the US Development fund. i.e. I can guarantee US taxpayers will be stuck with paying this.

    Update on taxpayer cost of the Unaffordable Care Act and setting up State Exchanges.
    It is now approaching $5 billion.

    (An example of Government total utter incompetence.)

    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:45 PM
    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:54 PM
      May 15, 2014 15:10 AM

      Where is BIG AL GORE (carbon tax boogie man) , when you need him., He should be headed to jail, along with the other guy……….

    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:57 PM
    CFS
    May 14, 2014 14:29 PM

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/de-dollarization-russia-is-on-the-verge-of-dealing-a-massive-blow-to-the-petrodollar

    Russia is preparing well.

    The BRIC group of countries, willing to exclude the US dollar in trade deals has quietly been negotiated and now has hit 80 countries.
    I did not misprint. 80 countries are currently setting up to trade not in dollars.
    While that total does not quite yet total half of all countries, the trade between them will be over half of all world-trade.
    Looks to me the Devil Incarnate has succeeded in destroying the US as we know it some two years ahead of schedule.
    Of course, not being able to read the mind of the Devil, maybe he also intends to wipe out the best of American youth by taking the country into World War III.

      May 14, 2014 14:34 PM

      CFS – I’m not sure what to make of Michael Snyder. His articles seem cogent enough. But his book promoted alongside his articles – ‘The Beginning of the End’ is unadulterated rubbish! For someone claiming to be a writer he makes one elementary mistake after another.

    bb
    May 14, 2014 14:03 PM

    Jim Willie interview on SilverDoc

    Europe is the grand prize. And it’s always been the grand prize. Well, due to NATO and World War II considerations, the United States is pretty much captured, colonized, integrated Europe.
    That’s about to change.
    I think Europe is going to turn its attention eastward.
    They have a parade of gold-backed currencies coming. It’s not just going to be the Russian Ruble or the Chinese Yuan. It will involve the Gulf Dinar, with the Saudis. I think it will involve the Nordic Euro.
    The Germans, with their friends the Dutch, the Austrians and the Finns, Finland…
    They’re all ready. They’re just waiting for the moment. They’ve got a Nordic Euro, and they’ve got plans for gold backing

      May 15, 2014 15:13 AM

      This is a good one on the bond buyers in Belgium……..nice trick from the FED.
      Dr. Craig P. Roberts discusses this at usa watchdog………………..

        May 15, 2014 15:23 AM

        With one hand they back off QE with monthly taper..telling the world the US economy doesn’t need the Fed’s action = BS!!…..the other buys US debt thru Belgium keeping key rates low, the flame away from the derivative time bombs the US banks own

          May 15, 2014 15:36 AM

          did you get a chance to listen to MCALVANY……..on the new FED POLICY?
          CALLED…………FRFAORF……(.fixed rate full allotment overnite repurchase facility)

            May 15, 2014 15:44 AM

            the jest is the Banks(tbtf) now have $2.6 Trill in EXCESS RESERVES, the FED does not want on the street, so they are making another deal with the TBTF(banks)….

            May 15, 2014 15:47 AM

            the EXCEED RESERVES , were not anticipated from the FED, and now they have another problem…………..which could magnify into $26 Trillion, if not contained…

            May 15, 2014 15:52 AM

            I did give it a listen and I read Dr Roberts…..for me J these are great issues to be aware of but PRICE is everything to me, its how my portfolio is valued in Real Terms, not what it should be.

            There are so many issues or fundamentals suggesting Gold should be $2000+ today!…but its not and there is currently nothing telling me on my chart that its ready to head in that direction anytime soon.

            Momentum is the key driver behind any investment….gold needs new buyers not just short covering on US data like NFP or Ukraine war drums…..

            May 15, 2014 15:58 AM

            Smart money is always ahead of the pack……………not what is , but, what is to come.

            May 15, 2014 15:59 AM

            sorry,,,,,,,,,,just trying to help………..

          May 15, 2014 15:37 AM

          Now……….does anyone believe in manipulation………….

            May 15, 2014 15:06 AM

            As I said these issues, articles you bring up are important, but its like you said, do you think anyone is listening?

            Jim Willie has brought up many unreal issues taking place within the global banking system, great to know but these past almost 3 years all those issues he keeps repeating have done Zero for the price of gold and silver….so does his points mean anything, the market says no….in time, maybe….but that’s where my #1 driver Momentum needs to show up or its dead money.

            Eric Sprott imo the best early to sector analyst just as Jim Dines nailed so many sectors…but they all had Momentum follow thru…..that’s what gold needs!!!

            May 15, 2014 15:15 AM

            if your game plan works…….stick to it……………..best………..ootb

            May 15, 2014 15:19 AM

            Well I was telling glenfidish on Wed that I was looking to short the miners into this strength which I did…..so I’m short looking for a 200 HUI sometime in June….how and why we get there “if” it happens I may hold that short….if the HUI can close above 230 I’ll cut my losses…….

    CFS
    May 15, 2014 15:48 AM

    Our leader just climbed aboard air force 1 for flight number 1,000.

    May 15, 2014 15:49 AM

    TWO GREAT CHARTS…….KWN……..MARGIN DEBT AND S&P 500………..think about CRASH…………

      May 15, 2014 15:52 AM

      to go along with these charts……….if the banks create the cash…….and if the amount of EXCESS RESERVES on the banks ledger sheet…..exceeds $2.6 Trillion…..Think we might be in trouble…?

    May 15, 2014 15:57 AM

    Interesting?

    May 15, 2014 15:58 AM

    Has ANYONE made a dime from the opinions on this site?? Looking back over the years I would say NO! Just a place to kill boar-dome I guess..

      May 15, 2014 15:05 AM

      depends on how far back you what to go……phil………

      May 15, 2014 15:06 AM

      Philski, this is not an investment site. It’s just a bunch of old guys hashing out their arguments for and against the economy, politics, gold and silver. It is purely for entertainment…..so of course I got a good laugh out of your comment 😉

        May 15, 2014 15:09 AM

        better be kind, or AL will x you off…………..(joke of course)

          May 15, 2014 15:18 AM

          Hey…we KNOW we are old guys. Others half our age are long since dead. We have bragging rights! Now lets get on with the daily pissing contest. I am just getting my bony fingers warmed up for another few rounds.

            May 15, 2014 15:27 AM

            Well, old age does have it’s rewards……….like being able to be on the beach for 2 1/2 months., without a care in the world. Knowing you have made some wise decisions, and some mistakes and able to look back and benefit from both.

            May 15, 2014 15:34 AM

            actually, we call it a” working vacation”……….time to renew ….and reflect…..

    May 15, 2014 15:08 AM

    Truth always speaks volumes eh?

    May 15, 2014 15:09 AM

    PS Bird: maybe the smartest guy in the room. Or at least smarter…

      May 15, 2014 15:19 AM

      Ha…a guy with an attitude! You will fit right in!

    May 15, 2014 15:15 AM

    So anyway…are we finally getting our long awaited stock correction? Gold and silver again doing the yo-yo routine again today. Up one day, down the next. Too often that is the sign of a bottoming process as volatility increases in a tight range. Could be a good sign.

    May 15, 2014 15:20 AM

    What happened to Rick? Been a few days since he did a commentary here.

      May 15, 2014 15:29 AM

      You pissed him off………….maybe……….

        May 15, 2014 15:29 AM

        Not a chance Jerry. Rick is one of my favourites here. You have never heard me criticize him.

    May 15, 2014 15:28 AM

    If you listen to guys like Bob M you would think the world ended years ago.
    Heres one guy that never lost a year:
    There remains a fundamental disconnect between current stock market valuations and the state of the global economy. Things are improving yes,
    but at a very slow pace and so many risks still remain. China, whose economy is responsible for 40% of global copper demand, is slowing. The
    price of copper, often referred to as “Dr. Copper” as a prognosis on the global economy, is down 10% since the beginning of March and is now
    trading at its lowest level in four years. We are very concerned about China’s economy as excessive leverage has been used to fund growth and
    now cracks are starting to show. China’s first-ever on-shore corporate bond default occurred earlier this year with solar cell marker Shanghai Chaori
    Energy Science and Technology Co. announcing that it would not be able to pay the $14.6m annual interest on a bond issued two years ago. We
    see political or economic issues in a number of other countries as well including Ukraine, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela, Brazil, India and Thailand.
    We have used market strength to continue to reduce the portfolio’s long exposure as well as to increase short positions. Our net long exposure
    is now lower than it was a month or two ago. Earlier this year we increased our weighting in preferred shares by participating in a couple of
    attractively priced new offerings. A few of these new issues are now trading close to $26.00, generating an annualized return of over 10.0%, with
    limited downside risk in our view. We still like REIT’s in this low interest rate environment, especially those with US assets, and have continued to
    add selectively to key holdings since the beginning of this year. We remain bullish on the USD and see the US economy as being one of the few
    bright spots and continue to position the Fund according to these views.

      May 15, 2014 15:50 AM

      Phil;
      Are you referring to this fund manager?
      http://www.firstasset.com/products/overview/?fund=JFT+Strategies+Fund

      May 15, 2014 15:28 AM

      Philski, I honestly believe we are facing a global asset price collapse but I have no idea when it might happen. I don’t usually veer too far off into the gloom forest though because it is not helpful to me day to day.

      In the big picture though we do have quite a bit of evidence that valuations for everything from stocks to bonds to farms to houses and so much more are historically overpriced or getting long in the tooth.

      We are seeing extremes in almost every financial and investment category known to humanity. I need not even break a sweat covering some of the most popularly discussed threats. Japan is a perfect example of a problem that will infect the global economy though. It’s debt is epic such that it is impossible to conceive of it not flaming out in a hyperinflationary hell-ball.

      Well that is the worlds third largest economy. Does anybody really believe Japan can go down and we won’t feel it? Then we have China with a credit bubble so large and a property market so egregiously overpriced it defies being properly calculated. And that is the second largest economy in the world.

      Back in the good old USA the combination of municipal, state and federal debts has become so large that nobody even bothers considering how to pay it off anymore, let alone control it. We all know that a default has unofficially become the only way to extinguish the debt. And that is the worlds first economy.

      Of course, the story just deteriorates from there and after having reviewed the basics of our three leading economies. We know meanwhile that interest rates and inflation rates are both at bottoms for most of the developed economies. They have only one direction to go now and that is up.

      No doubt we will finally see that other lonely metric, velocity of money, finally reverse off its floor and head a whole lot higher. Won’t that bring cheers of excitement. Just a matter of time though.

      And that brings me to one of the mammas of unwinds that should wreck the party which is the derivatives bubble, most of which will be triggered by rising interest rates. No worry though. The banks will all default on those promises and nobody will get paid. And the obvious reason is that what is not payable will simply not be honored. How the financial sector survives that event is truly beyond reckoning.

      The point I am slowly getting at here is that there is nowhere to hide.

      You can buy bonds but the odds are a good many will never be redeemable. You can rush into stocks if the fact of such extreme leverage does not give you indigestion nor does the concern that valuations are off historical charts for many companies. Shoot, many have zero revenues. How safe are those when the crash comes?

      Or you could run to property. But gee whiz…wouldn’t you know but property prices are inflated virtually across the entire globe. And property taxes are becoming so onerous they make holding some property a net loss especially given so much of it is destined to lose value rather than rise further in price.

      Even here in Africa where in many countries almost no credit exists whatsoever they still managed to blow one of the biggest housing bubbles on the planet when measured in terms of price to income or price to rent. Totally unbelievable. Mud houses with corrugated steel walls surrounding them can run into the high tens of thousands of dollars for God’s sake.

      So there is not safety nor security in housing either. It must and will deflate eventually. Even farmland prices are so out of line you could not conceivable earn an income growing crops on most of it anymore. Yet that is where many investors are running to preserve capital as an alternative to bonds.

      Meanwhile over in crazy land, those with the really big bucks drop millions on paintings, art, gemstones, antique cars and vintage wine rather than keep cash on hand. Why? Because you cannot trust banks and nobody wants to risk getting bailed-in when the next financial crisis strikes. And many of those extreme wealthy seem to appreciate that what they have acquired can one day be taxed in creative ways that are becoming increasingly difficult to evade.

      It is coming though. The trouble I mean. Bank defaults. Bail-ins. New taxes on wealth, on homes, on assets and on estates. We all know it. As soon as the sovereign debt problem surfaces again we are back in very deep waters.

      See, that is what I think will be the trigger to set off a cascading series of defaults in other sectors and in the process sink banks, bonds, business and nations. It’s a regular shit storm of the most serious proportions. There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide for the vast majority of people.

      Some here think gold and silver are the answer.

      But I think it will actually be the one asset nobody in their right mind actually wants to hold anymore. That asset is cash. It is unloved and about as useful as a boat anchor where earning interest is concerned. But it may the the last thing standing once the dust settles and the one thing that almost nobody has in sufficient supply to service their debts and keep their property taxes paid.

      Just like that last big depression.

        May 15, 2014 15:13 PM

        Thanks for the interesting “food for thought” post, Bird!
        Jody D

    CFS
    May 15, 2014 15:34 AM

    President Barack Obama speaks to the media at the Washington Irving Boat Club in Tarrytown, N.Y., Wednesday, May 14, 2014. The President spoke about the need for Congress to fund road and bridge improvements across the nation.

    How many f…ing times do we have to give money for this?
    Was not that paid for by TARP, QE1, QE2….

    Of course, if you had not been giving all the money to your cronies, e.g. Solindra, the morons that put together your websites…..etc.
    We could have had gold-plated bridges by now.

      May 15, 2014 15:36 AM

      IT , can only get better….with Hillery……………..he,he………

      May 15, 2014 15:42 AM

      The amount of money used in Tarp and QE could have paid off every mortgage from commercial to residential in all 50 states….how strong would the economy be today with Zer0 mortgage debt………..oh ya that would mean the banksters just lost their #1 income earning machine….the banks run the Whitehouse, always have always will….as they have the perfect Ace….screw with us and we won’t sell the governments debt, CheckMate!!