He may be right, he may be wrong.
It is foolish to predict any number without considering all factors and giving mathematical and logical reasoning.

To use charts to predict anything that far out does not make any logical sense to me.
(Regardless of my gut feeling as to his correctness or fallacy)

I find it hard to believe that this guy is good with charts when he clearly knows NOTHING about energy!
Somebody tell him that US produces 8.75 mlb/day (and this figure ONLY recently) and consumes >18mlb/day. US will NVER be in a position to be oil independent and a logical exporter ever again. US peaked in oil production at 10.4 mlb/day in december of 1970. “Technicians” like this one and a couple of others that believe in energy independence and shale “boom” who are featured in your site will have a “crude” awakening soon, together with all of us. Get fit, buy a good bike and pray… We will need it…

$2,250/ounce by the end of 2015. That’s a fairly conservative estimate, a gradual rise in price. Given the decades-long suppression and the loss of the reserve currency status of the USD, I would say $2,000 by the end of 2014, with $5,000 by the end of 2015. Do I want that? No, I want $5,000 by 30 August 2014 and $8,000 by the end of 2014. But as Catherine Austin Fitts says, $2,500 gold means war to the elite. The loss of Treasury bills as the savings of choice over hard commodities would end their 300-year-long fractional reserve and devaluation system, with war as the only solution to insolvency.

$130/barrel oil is different. It’s less than the $147/barrel record. With Russia cutting off natural gas and oil to Ukraine, and therefore Europe, along with the Middle East becoming more fractured, $130/barrel is still too conservative. Regional conflicts mean shortages of both production and delivery, which means a higher price for commodities.

Everybody thought life with GOLD over $1,000 back when gold was at $250 was curtains for “life on earth”…c’mon…….gold is simply the measurement of health in a global fiat currency monetary system…NOW IS THE TIME for GOLD to say “hey, enough is enough”…the system is SICK and we need to retool the system…that is when GOLD will assert itself to $2,500 and BEYOND…it is INEVITABLE! SO hang on and relax…most of the people on this site are ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRADE….lucky for you and your families….you will NEED the purchasing power to stay afloat!!

Marc. “Everybody” ??? I did not.

Sorry – CFS, I should have not been so absolute…as a professor – you called me on it……..ok, you are right…..Is “general consensus’ vague enough…to be not so inclusive??

Actuall Paul van Eeden did a calculation about that time indicating that gold was undervalued and based on inflation data should be priced in the $500-600 range.
I disagreed with his calculation was based solely on US inflation data and dollar printing numbers. I have always considered Gold as a world-wide currency as thought his calculation should be based on a much more difficult world-wide money printing and inflation calculation.

Actually

Anything less than the world economy divided by real ounces of gold or silver bullion represents financial and monetary criminal insanity and market manipulation.
What we currently have is a crime and a disease in progress. Nothing more and nothing less.

WOW..STRONG indictment – Steven…..BRUTAL but ACCURATE!…sometimes the truth hurts! OOOUCCH!

The model answer is when gold sells (per ounce) at the value that equals the total dollar value of US foreign debt divided by the assumed number of ounces of gold the US government has, gold is full priced.
The reason for that is because at that price the international balance sheet of the USA and therefore the dollar is in balance. However, that number, which was $900 in 1980, is now slightly above $12,400 (Feb. 2012).
Jim Sinclair

But how much gold does the US actually have?
If it is like the social security trust fund or any supposedly funded function of the U.S. government, there is nothing in the vaults but pieces of paper or more likely gold actually owned by other entities than the US. With all respect to Mr. Sinclair dividing by zero does not produce a meaningful answer.

The equation is relevant as it is the crux of the formulated value placed upon the reserve currency.
America will never allow an audit of their alleged gold holdings so the formula and equation is intact.

Why does the information Peter speaks of sound familiar?:

On August 17, 2013 at 8:40 am,
Dennis M. O’Neil says:

ARE WE GETTING AHEAD (A HEAD) OF OURSELVES – What is all the talk of bubbles and frothiness?
Personally I would like to see a rally before seeing a bubble.
The recent price action is nice for the trading position but serves only as a crude tourniquet for core positions.
Before we get A HEAD/ahead of ourselves and see gold being a frothy bubble maybe we should examine where it may go from here?
Take a look at the 8 year and 10 year gold charts.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_gold.html
In 2008 – August 2009 you saw the complete formation of a massive reverse head and shoulders which gave way at the end of 09. This pattern many times referred to formed relative to a waterline/resistance area around $1000. In the fall of 08 gold bottomed briefly touching $680. From the October 08 bottom through August 09 gold spot retraced from the bottom to the waterline. A near perfect reverse head & shoulders pattern formed. A higher volume bottom ($720) a $280 spread between what was resistance and this bottom. The briefly visited piercing of the $700 level reveals a $320 spread from top to bottom.
As the theory goes with reverse head and shoulders when the resistance level breaks you can expect a rally equal to the spread tallied during the formation of the pattern.
So when you add $280- $320 to the $1000 resistance level wala you see exactly where gold went in 2010 and the first half of 2011 without much to say.
Subtracting the bottom figure from the top resistance of the pattern and then adding the result to the waterline resistance level you arrive at the following (1000-680=320) (1000 plus 320 = 1320)
Or $1320 gold
ARE WE GETTING “A HEAD/AHEAD” OF OURSELVES

So if you were bullish gold in 08 and saw the buying opportunity of the depressed price at the bottom you could have picked up $680 to $720 AU and profiting almost 40 to 50% on the return to resistance and another 40 to 50% on the break out of the reverse head and shoulders pattern taking gold to $1320. What happened in the summer of 2011 was a gravy train. You did not need to know you were buying the bottom of some chartist’s coveted pattern. All you needed to know was that you were buying value without much concern to price.
Before we do get A HEAD/ahead of ourselves let us just put in play the same dynamics to the recent market…..in other words what if we just saw a bottom similar to 08’s?
Similar to the spring of 08 when Gold traded briefly above $1000 this early spike was dismissed in considering the near perfect pattern. Similarly the August 11 spike to 1920 will not be considered the waterline/resistance level for this calculation.
Instead I will look at the $1760 level as an important level of what could be the waterline resistance seen in a potential left shoulder. This level was/has been flirted with twice in ’11 and twice more in 2012. This yet to be proved pattern bottom spiked to below $1200 but to be conservative in a not so conservative consideration let us use the 14dma low level at $1250. Subtracting $1250 from $1760 you arrive at $510. Adding $510 to $1760 would bring us to $2270 gold. The result is a forecast price of $2270 gold with the expectation of arriving at that level in approximately 24 months.
From top to bottom this pattern is twice as large as 08 to 09.
The potential left shoulder took as long to form as the entire pattern in 08-09 and should take a similar amount of time to complete if it in fact does.
Warning…..If you look at a chart long enough you begin to see things!
A rhyme/repeat of the 08-09 reverse head and shoulders on a 2x more massive scale would be nice.
My point only today is it is a bit early to be referencing bubbles and frothiness in the metal markets after what it has been through. During the period under consideration to date the Fed had quintupled its balance sheet. If they stop easing their bid will be sorely missed in the bond market. With all the hocus-pocus we should expect volatility and hair pulling gyrations. We should expect insane economic contrivances that will make you scratch your head like Colombo. Continued monetary mayhem will likely make the above calculation ultra-conservative…..assuming private property still then exists.

Sinclair just published……..30 reasons why gold is headed higher……23 new ones, and 7 old ones……………..Sinclair…today……………

Whoever decides to go back to honest money again will have to accept an international audit of their gold reserves. I suspect China to be at the gate first. Canada holds no physical and will need to come up with something, what will they do?

The US will be pressured to prove their supply or face a runaway dollar. Then there are all the other countries to consider. What a mess you have gotten me in Olly, oh Stanley stop nattering on.

Mr. Tracy, you made me feel familiar with your reference to your Oliver and Hardy reference. Thanks

GERMAN GOLD TO STAY IN NY…………….kitco