The Fed has never ended the QE program
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
This is exactly right. I can’t imagine gold or the commodity complex bottoming if the yen continues its controlled demolition. Now, if it hyperinflates in an uncontrolled manner, then all bets are off for every asset class.
The Fed in coordination with the BoJ and ECB have seemingly pulled off the impossible. A rising dollar is going to kill commodities and drive profit margins for domestic producers through the roof. Commodity currencies, yen and euros will come pouring into the US stock market creating a virtuous circle.
The central bankers have tooled and schooled the gold bugs (myself included). Mind blowing…
If commodities continue to get whacked and stay below production costs then producers will either defect from the market and set their own price or go out of business. They will have no choice.
FINALLY!!!!!! somebody gets its!!! well done spanky!
Armstrong’s followers completely missed the huge rally in the miners in Q1 and you missed the rally in June/July. Funny how you were nowhere to be found at that time. You had no “facts to report” I take it? Lol.
Btw, do not put words in my mouth. I did not “give up” on the guy but he does say some really ridiculous things sometimes.
I am not one of his kool-aid klan because I refuse to check my brain at the door.
If following works for you, great!
you so belong here matty with all the other losers tripping over each others BS far far far more money has been made from the short side since 2011 that I do know….and far far more from long side positions in US equities..your so wrapped up in your own ego you can’t imagine that someone actually has the talent to read a chart both ways can make money shorting a trend AND from the long side like last Dec and June…what a complete moron
Your cluelessness is beyond your comprehension. Of course I understand making money both long and short. You’re angrily making the claim that I don’t get it because YOU missed those rallies and need a diversion from that fact. What a complete genius. 😉
Well, this as far as I can invest in PM’s , just have to wait and see and check in with the K.E. Report ,hope im not the one turning out the lights…..
I posted the news last night.
This is not a way to run economy. Not sure why it is bad for gold. More paper money chasing gold, gold should be higher. Only thing you cannot print is hard asset.
Lawrence i never said it was bad for gold. I did not know you had posted it already.
Others attributed the weakness in gold to japan. It is why I made the comment. This system is so corrupt. People may wake up one day and realize all the gold which is supposed in Fort Knox is gone including German’s swiss’s, etc.
This might put a floor on the carnage..
What puzzles me about the assumption that people move to stock and dump gold may only applies to US even it is true. The rest of the world does not have much access to US market and all of them have access to gold.
I own stocks that have increased their dividends over 10% a year for the last 2 decades. I feel much better owning them then gold that can fall 10%+ in a week.
Every idea we ever had about why, when, and how regarding the stock markets and gold markets has been turned on its head. What to fear and what to believe in has changed dramatically. We live in a very strange and make believe world.
I tried every logic and only one make sense is what the government wishes and tries to make it happen. Everything else fails one way or the other.
Yep, certainly a crazy market Big Al.
Having sat and watched the FTSE and DAX jump up this morning… followed by the US markets… I am sat here ever so slightly stunned wondering just how many more days like today the general stock markets can have?
Surely we can’t see this kind of climb up continuing as, by Christmas, the DOW, NASDAQ, FTSE et all will be at even crazier new highs!?
I think I will buy some miners next week.
Thanks for the info this week Gary – both on here and also the charts on your website.
Bob,
Just wait till the energy stocks join the party for real. That’s when the markets will really get into high gear.
If I am hearing you right Gary you are saying that we are going to get a massive Santa rally run-up into Christmas on all fronts – in the gold/silver miners, energy stocks and the general stock market?
yes
Credit where it is due! Gary was right on the lows being taken out, I thought they would hold and was dead wrong. Plus his stock market call has been correct thus far.
I agree with Gary that QE in some format is continuing. I’m sure there are some bonds out there that are maturing that they are replacing with new ones. This could be in the billions.
Gary. How low can the PM’s go???
I give up.
cecilhenry,
gary never gives numbers only cycles. Maybe he can give us a number were he thinks gold may stop for this current ICL?
I just watch for a swing once we get into the timing band for a bottom. Bloodbath phases always go further than anyone expects. That’s why I keep stressing not trying to pick a bottom right now. But we are close. 4-5 days tops.
Why are you so sure it is 4-5 days tops Gary? Looking at the charts, prior capitulations, as in 2008 lasted around three to four weeks,- much longer than your 5-10day window. Why so much shorter this time?
Gary,
I just don’t get the blood phase you talk about next summer. I understand we will head down again but have you looked at all miners and etf? There at record low numbers already. Some are at pennies back to there 1998 lows.. Is it not possible miners go up and next years drop with crb has them going down from a higher low but not to these 1998 and 2006 lows?
We have to have the bankruptcy phase before the bear will end. That will come next summer.
I have an idea. Inflation in commodity prices is masked because prices would be lower without the money printing. In other words, inflation prices can also be evident as current prices that would ordinarily be lower without monetary inflation.
I call the bottom now… nope, now…….. uhhhhh….. now? Wait a minute……………. now, Hah!!!! Oooops, now…. nope…. maybeeeeeeeee…… now. Oh the hell with it!!! Its a traders market. Haha.
Gary. What is your rational for another drop in summer of 2015 to 1050 level? Just want to understand cause i do not think you have explained that yet. Reason i ask cause that would be 4+ years bear market in metals. That’s long in the tooth and also in steepness. Great call on no tipple bottom.
Stew,
The CRB is due for a 3 year cycle low next year. It will probably drag gold down with it.
Gary, a never saw GOLD market so scary like today. I’m looking now at 5hour chart and the RSI is at as low as 8,68, and I NEVER saw it so low as today. Can we have a big bounce any time soon?
We are going to have a huge bounce soon. Just be patient, the bloodbath isn’t over yet.
Gary… It seems we would get into a sort of bottom soon.. with this bloodbath… you tend to think it will bottom again next summer…. could this scenario build to be 1) a gigantic header/shoulder or 2) a gigantic double bottom?
I assume we will not see a st**pid tripple bottom again next year?
As I said before, triple bottoms are a myth. Anyone calling for the triple bottom just didn’t understand how markets work.
I think this is the fourth or fifith, Gary. Did you see how gold penetrated the 1179? It went straight down from 1187 and it is not the usual way stock fail such that it approaches the support and then flush out the stops. It went from way up and cut through. An external force was in play.
I was watching. Even hourly chart did not show any slope, purely vertical.
IMHO, Surprise from BOJ makes it even much easier to penetrate 118x… it could have been a little different without BOJ.. who knows…. on a side, feel very glad it happens deep/fast…
there is dont fight the Fed.. now dont fight Gary’s cycles.. 😀
Gary,
Triple bottoms are not a myth. They are a rare occurrence but they do happen.
My $1212.80 call failed dramatically.
I took a shot and got a little bullish.
I have one question…
When I was a bear for many months and all the “wise guys” said that was a contrarian indicator and it was time to buy…how’s that working out for you?
Buying a good low usually works out well as long as you remember to sell/hedge into strength.
It is interesting that when you finally turned bullish going into a low, the market did not cooperate. Still, it’s a better approach than your previous one.
Having a stop in place, or at least in mind, helps too.
I exited about 4 months ago, I just could take the volatility in the commodity juniors.
Assuming you meant “couldn’t”.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$cdnx
This should flush a bunch of the Fly by Nighters the hell out of this market and begin a healthy new market. I have almost nothing in G&S now and am very interested in uranium juniors etc.
I have some gold and silver shares and I dumped Pam American a week ago and I got rid of some Acnico Eagle today. I usually don’t have problem holding miners but they will be hard to survive under this PM price. I got four out of six lowest cost gold producers and I believe they should survive but the SP should go really low if they start to lose money and tax loss season will be bad since stock market is good in US. People can off set their gains. I hope Uranium can turn out to be a winner this year. Unfortunately, they have move down with higher uranium price. I still have a small loss on my CCO.
For all those people who are scared and panicking DONT
remember take consolation in the fact that gold and silver can only go to zero
There will be a bottom
Let’s get to $1000 already so we can finally stop the bleeding.
If you are a long term investor, 7 to 20 years, you will do ok
James… exactly the thing people should be thinking now… (if one is closer to retirement, then I have no opinion on that :()… but another 5 year… just a blink of an eye to me thinking how not so long ago bulls were so happy in early 2014..
If gold and silver go to zero which is unlikely it is quite likely that there will be no metal to buy. Anyone that has real metal won’t sell for zero and they know that market prices are a criminal farce imposed on them. If anything it will be the paper that goes to zero in an attempt to rescue the shorts and psych out the strong hands that have real metal.
At that point I would expect all hell to break loose. People won’t sell the real deal for nothing and people that buy paper for nothing if they have any sense are going to want the metal in hand if they can get it which is doubtful. Should be interesting.
The FED handed the baton to the bank of Japan. SIMPLE AS THAT.
Japan has had the baton since the 1970s.
nice comment
I walked into Waldbaums (a grocery chain store in the north east) the other night.
The store has been quiet lately.
I spoke to the guy stocking the shelves.chensaid it’s been dead.
People are going to cheaper grocery stores (shop and stop…)
Waldbaums produce is grade a , shop and stop is grade b
People will rather have some inferior fruit for a cheaper price.
I went to check out a new fruit store and since I was there bought a pomegranate
It was $1.99 which was cheaper than I usually pay
I went home, cut it open, it was totally rotten.
I guess that wealth effect isn’t working out yet for the average joe.
iPhones, coach bags, go pro cameras for everyone!
Gary,
WIll you ride the mining stocks higher when they bottom with GDX/GDXJ or do you select individual stocks?
I only trade ETF’s.
I am in earnest now
If you don’t own any gold now is a great time to buy.
Buy 30% of your gold stake, if it goes down further, buy your next 30%, if it goes down still further ($1000) buy your last 30%
Agreed, I use Gary’s intermediate cycles to time purchases. I don’t mind adding to my physical metals at these prices levels thank you Mr Market. I’m based in the Netherlands and Gold is up 6% against the EURO ytd.
Crab.. I wish I earned in EURO now.. 🙂
Glad to see you’re unfazed by this action and I agree with buying in tranches.
Why should we be surprised that the FED or its agents banks, or other Central Banks are supporting the SM. I think we have to admit it is impressive that the not so invisible hand has managed the SM and kept it levitated.
Surely at some point the general public who are not participating, US stock ownership is app 52%, will demand to feel the benefit of the so called recovery and maybe the political powers that be will be forced to put policies in place that do this.
The FED’s policies reinforce the inequality that exists, you would expect more vocal discontent from the public.
Now what do you do with your remaining 10%
Go on vacation
Simon, according to another poster on this blog, his clients are all in
All we need now is flag pole sitting and it’s the roaring twenties all over again
James stop wondering around in the dark OPEN your eyes as to what big capital is doing…follow Armstrong and you would have sold all your gold at $1800 and bought the DOW at 10500 understand big money flows not useless opinions!!!
jj….are you Armstrong’s campaign manager?….
NO gator, typical comment coming from those on the wrong side of the trade…its all about making money and this place is full of blind, deaf and dumb investors who stick together like sh!t wouldn’t you rather have made 200% shorting the pm’s sector these past 3 years and be up 70% owning US equities instead of chasing your tail…..whatever
Great point original, but please keep it clean. You are better than that!
How do you know I was on the wrong side of the trade?..You are one angry individual….and you respond to posts that you don’t like with a tirade….typical….you need to get over yourself…..
Could well be but i can’t think those members of the 20% US households on food stamps and with the people outside of the labour market at a 36 year low, I can’t think these guys are throwing money at the S&P futures : )
James, neat story about the fruit, same thing happened to me.
Oh well, I guess a little more is better than throwing away.
About the triple bottom, Gary does seem to know what he is talking about, Norcini also said it is pretty darn rare for a triple bottom to hold, I believe he said it was possible but doubted it would.
I wonder how low we end up going, Im sticking with my Chinese increase buying significantly aound $1000, that might stop a decline.
Of course if someone releases a few thousand tons it would drop from there I would think.
Original JJ if you want to govoff the cliff with the rest of the lemmings in a world that has gone competely mad on infinite global QE be my guess.
Yes all the momos look brilliant now but let’s see in a few months
As for shoulda could woulda I DONT PLAY THAT GAME
The endless QE is already here. It just rotates around the world and a lot of time, it is secret.
enjoy your losing approach james
THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT!
JJ im still not losing.bought in many many years ago
If you are still in this market please please please remember we are a lot closer to the bottom now. If you’ve hung on this long stay the course
James….rode this thing down from the 40’s in silver, $1,400 in gold, miners that were 60% higher than they are now….have no intentions in selling any of it….yes, I am buying now…bullion and miners……sleep very well at night…you have a tendency to do that if you are comfortable with your positions and confident in the outcome…..and there is always the will..where it’s all left to the kids…..
Well, I pulled the trigger today and bought a little bit of physical gold/silver, and a platinum coin from the Canadian mint. First time I’ve done this since 2008. Gary, I’ve said this on another post but I’ll say it again: I tip my hat to your great call from a few weeks. It was spot on. Now back to my Wild Turkey whiskey.
Chris i’m going to have myself today some Teacher’s Highland Cream lol
Here’s my view of these stock markets…
expect a rally to either backtest the triple bottmo breakdown or backtest 1200 in gold, then a move down to 1080-1100 afterwards
Gary do you still see oil and the xle going higher …ie to $97-100 as you said a week ago? I just made some $ in gdxj puts thanks to your analysis as well as Rick’s
Oil is due for a powerful intermediate degree rally. The only reason it has gone down this far and this long is Washington wanted energy prices down ahead of the elections. Once we get past that then oil is going much higher and the energy stocks are already diverging. Once oil starts to rise the energy stocks are going to scream higher.
Gary, are there any books out there that talk your cycles? I am interested in learning more about them. Thanks in advance.
Likely you are right on this call. All my oil gas shares are higher today. Even large uranium shares are better too.
Imagine this – Obama to meet with Yellen the day before the election! What timing!
With all due respect to Gary as he’s a great trader and thinker, call me naive, but I for one believe the Fed that QE has in fact ended.
2 reasons;
1) If they were lying about it, it wouldn’t be long before it was found out, and the finding out of a lie like that would be far worse for investor confidence.
2) Gold has been falling since Tapering began, and now that QE is over, the bottom fell out. So far Goldman Sachs is correct on their call for $1060 or whatever gold. Probably will happen.
So again, I think that QE has ended, but that they remain vigilant and ready to enact QE4 should weakness re-appear.
So w/out the fuel/money from QE, what is holding bonds and stocks up today? I have no clue – maybe it’s more that there are no big sellers, yet.
Bill, nobody knows what the Fed is doing/has done. The only way we can be sure if the Fed is lying or not is to audit it… which will never happen. Regarding your comment about what is holding stocks up- I believe foreign money is pouring in US markets. Japan, Europe, South America, you name it, are all a mess. The US is the prettiest pig in the pigpen, so it will get all the attention. How long that’ll last nobody knows.
The way it looks as of now gold and silver have further to fall. But I think that after the election, if bad economic data starts trickling in, gold/silver will catch a bid, not because of inflation fears but because of a lack of faith in the system. Personally I don’t believe the economic data coming from the government, but they needed that good data (even if it’s a complete fabrication) so the Fed could have a reason to taper and eventually end QE.
Chris,
It appears that the Fed does get audited quite often.
http://pragcap.com/common-myths-about-the-federal-reserve2
For those that are calling for an audit of the Fed, HR 1207, Ron Paul’s bill to audit the Federal Reserve, is a reformed audit of the Fed.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Transparency_Act
Quotes from the following link:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/sep/13/ron-pauls-audit-fed-bill-returns-congress/
“The bill would order the Government Accountability Office, which is Congress’s chief investigative arm, to review the Fed’s decision-making — particularly on monetary policy.”
“The previous chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, had opposed an audit, saying it could lead to politicians second-guessing the secretive board’s decisions. ”
So the Fed does get audited just not completely the way that Ron Paul wants.
JMiller, thanks for the links.
Thanks for clarifying Mr Miller. You beat Big Al to it. Today that was easy. I hope the Weekend Show was worth it!
Gold started to fall when QE 3 started on October 2012 and taper started January 2014, more than a year apart. Basically gold has been falling alone with QE. Smells fishy regardless on or off.
Lawrence, glad you’re keeping track of this stuff ’cause I’m not so keep teaching me. Looking at Stockcharts, I see that $GOLD hit 1923 in Sept 2011, not Oct 2012. When did QE1 and 2 start? Thanks.
Gold peaked in August 2011 and stayed in correction mode for a year and pretty flat in 2012 during the OT. It was trading from 1650-1750. When QE3 started, it was ~$1730 and after QE3 was announced it briefly touched somewhere like $1770 in the first week. Then it started to fall from 1770 to 1550 till April 2013. It then plummeted to 1179 in the summer and then touched 1180 in December. All these were during QE3. Gold actually rose when taper was going on and touched two lows below 1200 this year but managed to stay above last year low till today. So your statement that gold going down with taper did not happen.
QE1 and QE2 was between 2009 to 2011. 2011-2012 was Operation Twist.
Well, using your dates, and looking at a monthly chart of $GOLD on stockcharts, it looks to me that:
1) $GOLD rose during QE1 and 2 – this for me was to be expected – print money and gold goes up
2) $GOLD fell during QE3 – a surprise to me but it happened – manipulation chatter increased around here as I recall
3) During QE3 Taper, it looks like $GOLD rose and fell and rose and fell, overall ending lower now this week – overall sideways to down
So your final comment above that “Basically gold has been falling alone with QE. Smells fishy regardless on or off.” sounds perfectly correct now.
THANKS!
Thanks Bill in Tokyo,
I personally think that there are many more factors influencing au! Don’t you?
Free access to the SMT report.
http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2014/10/free-smt-archives.html
Its ALL about $Yen Gary, it has been since Nov 2012, massive capital will flow into the US equity markets sending the US$ much higher as $Yen gets devalued to 120….Euro heading to 120 then par as Europe’s debt issues implode…..again sending big capital into US equities…..gold sub $1000 on the back of last nights BOJ announcement is a Slam Dunk!!
Just as Martin Armstrong has suggested…..too bad Matthew gave up on the only guy who has called the trends correctly since Gold topped….Ego will kill your portfolio’s !!!