Comments on gold and the conventional markets
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I was referring to EURUSD in the post above when I mentioned the EUR.
Just to clarify, if need be.
Best to all,
LPG
A Whoope Cushion bounce. I love it.
I was hoping we’d get a little stronger bounce out of this 1220-1218 support that we identified for the last 2-3 weeks as a potential target. So far, nothing but hot Whoope Air, but Matthew posted a nice chart on yesterday’s Pundit Perspectives editorial showing that we are down bouncing off a fairly strong trend line. It is worth reviewing.
For the bounce to have any real merit we’ll need to see Gold get past the recent 1228-1232 zone of congestion, and I’d like to see it take out 1245 – The Feb 10th peak.
Shad, that chart was of Primero Mining. Gold has been stronger but a little more complicated technically. Any move lower will be brief in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SGOL&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p33241191089&a=389400661
Ha! I didn’t catch that was of Primero Mining. My bad. It looked like a nice place for a bounce of that trend line. Funny.
It happens! ๐
Matt,
By the way what is brief in your opinion?
Months?
Weeks?
Days?
micro days?
๐
In this case, micro days. ๐
gotcha!
I feel that no matter how this oil crisis came about fracking is destroying the earth’s core, from what I have read there seems to be unusual tremors in the states where it is being used. We certainly need a moratorium on this activity until it can be properly assessed.
fracking is good for the water table, and puts a lot of mineral in the water to boot……
Shad,Matt,
Thanks for comments on previous board.
Today is a day for trading the channel and we should close in the green. I spoke to you shad about this yesterday. Make no mistake im selling my trading position before end of close today. I expect tomorrow to get hit and close in the red. We should begin to move down into that 1200 channel. I plan on nibbling tomorrow and more so on tuesday as im screwed with the monday holiday in canada. Not sure how i will play this.
These are my thoughts and I believe this is a cat bounce.
I could be dead wrong but playing it safe from here. No need to be a hero..
glen
Well, gold certainly isn’t showing much strength in this bounce, so you could be correct that this is just, yet another, dead cat bounce. I don’t know if you have noticed, but this one has been dubbed the Whoope Cushion bounce : – )
However, it did hold the 1220-1218 support zone targeted on Wednesday (with a brief dip down to 1216 in afterhours trading and then a recovery above) and has held this 1220-1218 support zone fairly well all day so far. Gold could also be bottoming here and preparing for the bounce that we expected would happen by the end of this week by Thur/Fri. That was the original analysis from the last 2 weeks, but I am prepared that gold may break down further muting the rebound.
Since coming down to this level, Gold has really lacked any direction one way or another and has been range bound, so when it does pick a direction it will make that move hard. If it goes up, then it validates that we are getting the bounce that was expected. I would like to see gold take out 1245 the Feb 10th prior peak.
However, if gold breaks down then I think you are 100% on with your targets and I don’t want to lose the small gains I have in place from yesterdays position, so I’ll sell that portion and just hold a small position into tomorrow in case we get the bounce.
I actually expect Friday to be an up day in the early part of the day. There could be a selloff towards the end of the day as people square off positions before a long 3 day weekend. So if we are up in the morning tomorrow, then I may sell the only remaining position I have before the 3 day weekend myself.
Big picture, miners are very cheap and can be had for 25% less than their 233 month moving averages. They are getting ready to break out, in my opinion, of a huge bullish falling wedge that will target a move to the old highs —again, big picture, not tomorrow.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p38050758329&a=388163527
Matt,
No doubt in the “big picture” im with you bro :)..We are very getting closer to what I believe will be a turnaround and it should happen by end of year. Im just being a little cautious with the day to day activities in my trading account. Long term is not a problem as I hit 1.66 on IMG.to on november lows and bottom was 1.62 :). Close enough. I will add more “If” we get a break below that november low. I only have so much powder left and for long term I sure as hell will not touch unless we break 1050. At that point I will add remaining “if” it comes.
I also see a move coming “but” i believe it will start tuesday/wed of next week. Today is trade channel for me feeding of greek no agreement which is perfect for metals. Come sunday night/monday media will release they agreed or have an agreement and i think that will be the last move down to back up truck for the pop.
Where that pop goes not sure?
It could be a snap crackle pop!
๐
Yes…It very well could be a snap crackle pop!!
OK, based on the Greek news feed, the long weekend, and the unknown, you are on target Glen. I’d rather preserve my profits and miss a move, than try be right about a call and lose a big chunk. There are just too many unknowns and variables to feel very confident about a an upleg (but often times when there is this kind of negative sentiment extreme is when there is a reversal in the trend). I’m going to leave a 20% position in place, because I do still think there is a chance for a bounce here into Friday.
Good strategy as I have a position myself from friday as well..Never hurts to lay an egg ๐
Glad I still have that 20% egg this morning….turned out to be a good plan. (actually I had a 33% egg and sold a portion for a profit) I want to see how the day goes before settling for the 3 day weekend as gold is popping a little better than yesterday so far.
Hey Matthew, is there a correction still to come to put the RSI back at its’ bottom channel? It seems as if the sellers are drying up a bit IMHO.
I’m seeing the same thing and it is more evidence that points to the potential for the start of a new cyclical bull.
The RSI tends to bottom in the 40 to 50 range during a bull market just as it tends to top in the 50 to 60 range in a bear. (I say “tends to” because the respective extremes still happen just not as frequently.) Weekly charts show this bull-bear change in RSI action much more clearly.
I listened to Bo for the first time as he has an inaugural post on Talk Digital Network and he said silver is deeply oversold but the RSI is at the level you stated above. Maybe this is the breakout coming soon.
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/02/silver-oversold-at-record-level/
Silver’s relative strength is also a good sign. Note that its RSI is currently 46 (SIVR) while gold’s is 42 (SGOL). I really think the sector is where I thought it was a year ago. ๐ ๐
Don’t know about you but sometimes this market drives me crazy… (;-)
I let my mind wander, you see, now I’m just waiting for it to come back. ๐
DAN………THANKS FOR PUTTING BO P. ON……………
And no crazy guestimates on price.
Note that the miners gave us the big monthly MACD buy signal last June while gold is just giving the signal now. Also note that the massive decline since the June signal did not trigger a new MACD sell signal. Buy the dips.
Matt,
Can you be so kind as to put a monthly chart of both gold and hui on macd/rsi/stochs..Dating back to 2000. I will send you a fiddich free of charge.
Thanks for noting that ๐
I meant thanks for the above message with Macd!
Will the 89 month EMA hold? I think it will.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=0&id=p39670496181&a=389412031
Sorry matt i meant monthly.
Those ARE monthly. ?
Oh I think I see what you’re talking about. Never mind ๐ฎ
lol
Matt,
So do you have a monthly on these charts because they both say daily in brackets or am i misunderstanding?
That’s strange. They are both 20 year monthly charts. Are you using a phone or tablet by any chance? That has made a difference in the past.
Is anyone else getting monthly charts?
Let’s try a different one.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=M&yr=20&mn=11&dy=30&id=p09065759834&a=379527959
Daily as well..Its ok don’t worry im out on my phone today. ๐
I tried to view that one on my phone and it also did not work. I don’t know why… ๐
Pickep up some GDX today and sold out as no strong rally so far. Bought some Intel today. Cisco should provide some lift to tech. Energy is doing well today with Xop up sharply.
impulse leg……………still shaking………….
RICK IS SPOT ON…………I use to have a dog named SPOT, ,,this dog, like the market use to bit me on my rear when teased.
You could have nicknamed him Jaws…
could not name him that, because I had a pet gold fish with that name, only had one eye and one lip, …it liked to play around the water intake valve……….lol
bought another gold fish last week…………..we call him plunger……….
Funny.
slow day,,got to keep the mind circulating……
I am betting I know where your stash is Jerry! Its at the bottom of the Goldfish tank. Under the sand where nobody except another gold guy would ever think of looking for it. I give you credit man. Underwater is a good idea….better than the freezer. Everyone knows that idea. Did I ever tell you I once hid my cash in the garbage….and then threw it out by accident! I got it all back by the way…..lesson learned.
actually I put some in my koi pond………..where I am sure they would not ever think to look…………pond er ing the situation………………………..
I am going to start a gold exploration company called Pond Scum (SCUM) on the NYSE. We are really excited about our first target, which is J….the Long’s Koi Pond.
PEA will be released in the spring, once we do a 1/1000 reverse stock split to dilute all our shareholders out of existence and then we’ll try to raise money at PDAC, because this is supposed to be a great time to finance miners. Right?
My koi have voted….., no exploration at this time. Due to existing weather conditions. Maybe in the spring, when spawning season has returned, and they will be busy with the finer things in life.
Ha! Funny. Spring spawning is one of the finer things in life.
Jerry….:)
what are you smiling at……………….
We know where you hide your gold. ๐
lol……………
One of the best Ideas I know of, a fellow I know put a concrete floor in his garage,
under the concrete, right where the car sits.
Food for thoughts guys! Don’t shoot the messenger
great info…………shucks man, this is special delivery…………..
jj anything for you my friend ๐
NO stuttering please…………..jj was banished from the site………he got to short for The BIG OWL………………lol
just……………..j……………………….
2 J’s means 2 hooters……
sorry did know that…………………….j……………..j…………..
sorry I did NOT KNOW that………………….j…………….j
lol to funny
Two hooters im up for ๐
Machine gun what ever happend to irish? did he make it across the boarder in his whitey tighties? lol
if you have three or more, does that mean you have a litter of piglets………
irish will not be back until after the pubs close……………
LMAO ๐
I had a friend who had three nipples lol..We use to play with him but not the nipples. He would get mad.
Hope he’s not smuggling plums.
Mighty tighty whitey, I mean.
glad that was clarified…………………..
Wow, JJ = 2 hooters, people with 3 nipples, and mighty tighty whitey’s . What a strange mental picture.
Yeah…. it’s really not good….
…at all
gold fever………is a sick thing…………….
The general market correction looks to be over and the market is about to breakout to new highs within a a day or two so gold might weaken. Oil should take off too.
Shad,Matt
how often have you seen a big pop following a holiday? As in tuesday pop?
It would seem unlikely in my brain as we would create a weekly gap.
I don’t seem to recall a pattern one way or the other post 3 day weekends with a Monday holiday. It normally depends on what happens in the rest of the globe (ie political unrest, central bank nonsense, unexpected announcements, natural disasters, etc…)
Thanks Shad!
Trying to get a perspective of pop tomorrow or sometime next week. Me gut tells me next week..
You’re gut is probably right. I was convinced we’d see turnaround in Gold this week, and figured if did come down and test the 1220-1218 support zone, that it would be brief and immediately correct back up. As stated by Rick, we only got a whoope cushion bounce. There has not been any upside or downside conviction all yesterday afternoon and today, so this means that when the move occurs (up or down) it should be big out of this channel. My concern is that this move could be on Tuesday next week after the holiday weekend, but at this point there is no clear direction. That makes this nerve-racking. I may just cash out before this 3 day weekend.
Tuff to call..Me heart/mind want cheaper shares and these pricks are not bringing it down as to make one chase. I sense one last smash then up. I hope im right..It sucks to miss out on a big pop when only 20% invested ๐
cross fingers
I decided to leave in 1/3 of my position until tomorrow. I feel we may get some lift after hours, and open on the upside tomorrow in the junior miners……..risky call though.
Well that worked out to hold because I unloaded some of the JNUG I bought at $28.33 for $31.67 this morning, and if I had sold that yesterday it would have been just a hair over $30. Big relief.
GDX popped 10% for the week of the MLK holiday in 2009.
So matt let me get this right, your saying it would have been better to get in on the friday or the tuesday opening bell? Which was the better deal..
thanks
Buying in Canada while the U.S. was closed also worked well.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD&p=D&st=2008-12-12&en=2009-02-27&id=p46919046776&a=389415332
Matt,
Thanks a bunch for those charts..I don’t know how you do it but your quick as lightning. I noticed had one gone in on the thursday, you would have caught the low.
Can the same be said today. Low today with a green close, pop tomorrow and continuation next week? One thing is i noticed matt was i mentioned to shad i expect about 24 days for the rise and i said that yesterday or day before. Count the candles from that thursday low and until candle high and you have just about the 24 candles lol. Coincidence?
You’re right, there was the potential to save $1.20 (4%) on GDX by buying on Friday. Not bad.
The irony about Europe is that without the Marshall plan, they would not have carried out their cradle to grave state support. But then again, if you had both major wars of the century sweeping across the countryside, you would see the efficacy of investing the public domain. QE simply has to be a bigger waste of resources.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/historically-speaking-germany-a-bigger-deadbeat-than-greece-1.2948158
I remember back during the conflict with Libya, Egypt riots, debt ceiling debates, Euro crisises, that certain long weekends started on one footing and by Tuesday were on a totally different subject. Sometimes the extreme move happened overseas on the Monday, and by Tuesday the had reversed and our market would be a whipsaw because of not getting to act on the Monday with the rest of the globe, but seeing the corrective move prior to opening. I would say, nearly impossible to call, and it is just a roll of the dice.
I think you are correct………..almost impossible to call
Yep. I;m considering cashing out before the long weekend, unless some big event happens between now and close of biz tomorrow.
I am torn though, as I expect to get this long awaited bounce and we’ve been down most days for the last week or so. I don’t want to get out to be “safe” and miss the move up, but there seems to be a consensus forming that there still is further left to fall.
Now are the moments where you must ask yourself “How contrary do you feel?”
Shad just letting you know i might head in before the close..
Are you saying take a position, or turn in a position?
Im in already with my trading position as I stated earlier but i feel the urge to add more..
I will refrain from doing it. Just sold my positions. Banked in profit. I will sleep good tonight but that’s a lie because my eyes will be on the gold price.
I hope next week gives me and you one chance to get in.
Well I am in at 50%, currently at a profitable position, and I am thinking of selling part of it to reduce my exposure down to 20%, but I was hoping to to get a break above $31-32 in JNUG before doing so.
Shad…..Clint Eastwood…..Are you feeling lucky punk…Are you.
Well… are you?
Funny Irish – I guess I am feeling lucky because I left a small position in JNUG in place until tomorrow.
I’ve been looking for the bounce at the end of this week in Gold, and GDXJ has held better up than I expected during this downturn. If after hours some of the folks overseas bid gold up then I think we have a 60% chance of opening higher tomorrow. I’m going stick with my original thesis, even though I do feel nervous and swayed by the smart people on this site that are betting on a lower gold price down to 1206 and below 1200 soon. I just personally can’t see us dropping below 1200 tomorrow, but if it is too ugly then I’ll trade out in the pre-markets.
Don’t stress shad!
It’s a good probable chance that it does bounce and if it doesn’t markets always have a way to let you back into the game.
This advice is for trading purposes and not intended for investment advice ๐
Shad,
Also im personally glad we have you here as part of our community and consider just as smart if not more ๐
cheers
Thanks for the words of encouragement Glen and I am likewise glad you an active contributor on this site and value your thoughts.
This forum is a great place to exchange ideas with like-minded peers, and get exposed to stocks, charts, ideas, news events, and a bunch of tomfoolery, fooling around, clowning, shenanigans, capers, antics, pranks, tricks, buffoonery, skylarking, nonsense, horseplay, monkey business, and a few laughs now and then : – )
+1 Shad
+1 glen
ditto……………or itto……….
Thanks Matthew and J….The Long. We have a good group of people on this site.
As a side bar Irish, I did get lucky this morning, and the after hours global market did bid things up enough that I unloaded some of the JNUG I bought at $28.33 for $31.67 this morning, and if I had sold that yesterday it would have been just a hair over $30.
However, I did keep a small 20% portion in JNUG to see if we pop a little higher today, but feel good that my last 4 trades 1) JDST, 2) SWC then 3 & 4) Two tiers of JNUG ended up yielding gains. Now I have a little funny money to speculate with today and Tuesday in these wacky markets.
Yes SHAD……..YOU are correct
No settlement with Greek talks……!
So why is NBG, national bank of greece, up 11% today?
Goldman is getting ready to short it big time………….after all the suckers get in…..
Must be a few deals floating around. Isn’t that exchange off something like 80% in the last few years? I don’t follow it but I recall it took a massive face plant and never really recovered much.
So here is your answer CFS…..there is a deal in principle that was hashed out between Greece and Germany. Just came up on Bloomberg. And that would also explain why the Euro is up although that happened before any formal announcement.
Greece and Germany are Working Towards a Compromise
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-12/greece-germany-said-to-offer-compromises-on-aid-terms
I suspected as much with Russia and China sitting on the side saying they would get Greece out of their “fix”.
Good point. Talk about high pressure politics. I guess “game theory” works since Varofakis was invited to China by the Premier and also overtures were made to Russia. Not that they could help, but just the idea that they might was problem enough. They sure play hardball over there. All smiling and shaking hands the whole time like best friends.
Ya that’s true, wish I was devious enough to do that. lol
I going over and look at some rare coins…….lot more money in those than this stupid gold market……………………………………………….j……………lol……….
AGAIN, keep an EYE on the BALTIC DRY INDEX, it has now BROKEN DOWN BELOW it’s ALL TIME HIGH…………we are now at 553 POINTS and dropping……………we got MORE BAD ECONOMIC DATA this morning from RETAIL SALES and a rise in jobless claims……..NO MATTER how many LIES THEY TELL……………..NOTHING is going to save this system from DYING……..
Time to buy shipping companies Mark. This is the bottom of the chart which means prices for rates will begin to rise again.
Just a suggestion, there are some BIG ships out there, double hull.
Knowing which company owns those might help.
Just a thought bb….but there are two major events lining up to reduce ship volumes right now. One is that there is the strike on the West Coast and a lot of container ships are loaded and sitting idle. The other is that so much oil is getting pumped that storage is full and companies are now using floating tankers to inventory oil. It won’t take long to see BDI coming back up again. And anyway…it is at its bottom which means less efficient companies will go broke and thus reduce supply of ships. Lastly, crude prices are beginning to rise again, if only as a dead cat bounce, but that will impact shipping costs at the margin.
PS: I hate boats. I was just kidding about buying the companies. Worst investment EVER!
HOT NEWS……………….INDIA BEAT CHINA , ON consumption of gold……….kitco.
According to WGC, they beat China already last year. Their Chinese number is the Chinese import from Hongkong and India’s is import for the whole country. They ignored the 470 tons Chinese domestic production and import from Beijing and Shanghai, totally. Many well known experts pointed it out for last few years and they turned a deaf ear. Somehow they just want to print a low number on China. They must be controlled by Wall Street now. Be careful of their GLD.
Imports BY Beijing and Shaghai. China started multiple import channels for the last two years. WGC should know it. They should also know China is the largest gold producer.
Lawrence….WGC…Crossed over to the dark side , many years ago…They do sod all for the miners.
That is why I say the propaganda is deafening. A private organization can spread propaganda more freely. Even less oversight, as long as they don’t care about their reputation.
…………….LIES, LIES AND MORE LIES…………….anything so that the can continue playing GOLF on the weekends and so long as little SALLY IS SAFE AT HOME !!!!!!!!!!!!
THEM STUPID FOOLS OVER THERE AT THE COMEX AND LBMA, still playing and fooling around with the price of GOLD and SILVER…………..BY NOW I don’t know why they can’t see that with all their MANIPLATION………NOTHING, and I mean NOTHING…….is going to SAVE this economy of ours from TOTAL COLLAPSE !!!!! Just ask the BALTIC DRY INDEX !!!!!!!!!!!!!
We are under government baby sitting. It is a new normal. Nothing surprising.
Mark…….question……BALTIC DRY INDEX.,,,,,DO you think the DOCK STRIKE ON THE WEST COAST , has anything to do with the low number………………….j………thanks
NO………..nothing at all.
thanks Mark………..
Mark something will snap real soon!
Interesting views from Rick.
I note the Euro is back above 1.14 again today – fwiw.
As a side note, here’s something from Financialsense I came across yesterday.
The title of the article is
“Three Technical Signs to Watch for a Major Peak in Stocks and Impending Bear Market”
and I suggest to have a quick look at the MACD level on the chart within the article:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/cris-sheridan/three-technical-signs-peak-stocks-bear-market
Best to all, and GL investing/trading
LPG