Commodities rally should continue
Gary tells Chris that the lousy jobs number from Friday likely sealed the deal for a period that will see a weaker dollar, with rallies in gold and other commodities
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I’m a buyer of SPM today, Dan. 🙂
If Silver continues on it’s way up for the next few weeks, then that should be a good trade Matthew. Good luck to you sir!
Thanks Matthew, I need the encouragement. (;-)
Hi Dan, I got an order filled at .185 today, too. 😮
…and more at .18; maybe .175 tomorrow if I’m lucky.
Awesome. I may do some tomorrow. Wildcat (WS) is up since I mentioned it but I don’t own any now. Have concentrated on Scorpio.
Scorpio has been up today in the US OTC version of the stock, and it is right at it’s 50 day moving average. It could just as easily spike up as spike down, and if Silver continues it’s trend up for the next week or two, then it should have a nice little pop. Not investment advice, but if there is a nice pop in Mid-April, then I’ll likely sell into the strength and prepare for the PM slide in May to take another position at lower prices.
Jr miners and Jr producers don’t always correlate to the move in spot price as much as the mid-tier to larger cap producers (ie Hecla, Coeur, Silver Standard Resources, Pan American Silver, Great Panther, Silver Wheaton).
P.S. – I believe the selling pressure from the merger is over now and we are just in a normal market trading conditions now.
Thanks Shad, the volume has decreased quite a bit. It looks normal to pre-merger days, November 2014.
Yes, the decrease in volume seems to indicate that we are finally past the merger madness, and we’ll just have to see if the pop in silver has some legs over the next 2 weeks. Tomorrow may pressure PMs a bit, but I think later in the week and beginning of next week could show some more strength (but just for the short term).
I trade the US OTC (SMNPF), so if it can get up around $.18-.20 in April, then I may sell most of my position at that level for a wash (in at $.19) and then buy it again at $.14-.15 in May.
Good luck Dan the man!
I agree with your analysis of Scorpio, Shad. The potential is there when silver prices rise to $18.5+
Yes, I definitely think so, and if Silver gets over $18 then they should be fine, and they are stronger now with the new mine anyway. We’ll have to see how the next 2 weeks go, and I am awaiting some updated numbers from Q1 and guidance moving forward from management on Scorpio to get a gameplan moving forward.
For now it is a hold signal for me.
I agree that gold can rally another 5 weeks, maybe more.
I’m somewhere in the middle…euro has a lid at 110 and gold, seemingly, once it gets above $1220. Need a bigger push to extend this rally weeks…
Oil could also be going up because of Yemen collapse, as well as Saudi concerns.
It should be going down because of a potential flood of the market from Iran with 50 million barrels just waiting for sanction lifting.
I’m more conflicted than ever on oil, CFS. My gut tells me it’s about time to take some larger positions…my head tells me to take it slowly.
Chris,
You are correct. Conflict is the perfect word to describe oil.
Long-term, well run and cash rich producers and exploration companies should bring huge profits to astute investors, but in the short run it’s a roll of the dice and a difficult question as to whether one should start to scale in now or wait.
Iranian is going to start flowing in 2016.
I thought the commericals increased their short positions on gold and silver last week according to Friday’s COTs?
BNN reported this morning that gold shorts were at a record level but I wonder if they are mistaken. The level would have had to increase by a substantial amount.
Oops, I meant to post in reply here:
Worth reading the ‘Yesterday in gold and silver…’ and ‘The Wrap’ parts.
If the COTs is right, and I have no reason to doubt it, I think this is a set-up for a massive smack-down by the big four commercial banks.
Commercials are broken down into two categories.
1. Non-commercials
2. Commercials
It was my understanding that the big banks/hedge funds are part of the non-commercial side. Is this not correct? With the commercial side being the producers such as coca cola etc?
If the above is not correct then Non commercials=speculators(not banks)
In this case it much more bullish for gold then bearish and I believe it’s what Matt was trying to convey to me in an email.
I tend to agree for the short term (week or two into mid-Apil) Glenfidish. We could have a nice little short squeeze later this week.
The non-commercials trade in contracts, which could be for gold or silver, but they do not actually have to deliver any gold and silver – they simply trade the contracts long or short, often hedging… and make, or lose, their money that way.
Non-commericals could be hedgers, large speculators or small speculators.
The commercials have to deliver – i.e. they have to own some gold and silver – so they are usually investment banks. Some of these banks are known as ‘the big 8’ and four are known as ‘the big four’ – JP Morgan, HSBC, Barclays are the main players with all the well-known US, UK and German banks in there as well.
Correct me if I am wrong folks.. which I probably am 🙂
I believe your right and this current short position in commercials is at a all time low. It goes as far back as 2008/2009 numbers. Bullish? I will let you decide.
I think so for the time being.
I think you are reading the wrong report?
Bob this is the latest report.
Notice the short position on the commercial side? That is the position people say is smart money. Im just a messenger.
http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1428262160.php
I think you are ignoring that the commercial boys & girls got rid of over 33,000 long contracts.
Bob
Take a look at this COT on november 18th 2008..A week or two after bull market took off.
Look at the long commercial numbers and shorts..
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2008/options/deacmxlof111808.htm
Now take a look at this one week later on the long position in commercials November 25th
http://www.cftc.gov/files/dea/cotarchives/2008/options/deacmxlof112508.htm
Notice how the shorts went down minimal but is in the same range now as i type. More impressive is that long position was chopped massively.
My point is I personally focus more on the short position as they can get long anytime they want. The short is the key imo. What gary said today, what matt,shad,lpg are thinking of with higher prices and what historically 225,000 short position on commercials means is we are about to go higher before lower.
Anyhow that is just my opinion and I’ve been wrong before.
Worth reading the ‘Yesterday in gold and silver…’ and ‘The Wrap’ parts.
All owners of First Majestic are now also proud owners of First Mining Finance.
“VANCOUVER, April 6, 2015 /CNW/ – First Majestic Silver Corp. announces that it has acquired 14,509,279 common shares of First Mining Finance Corp. (“First Mining”) (FF: TSXV), representing 19.7% of the outstanding common shares of First Mining.”
First Mining Finance trading at about $0.50
Interesting acquisition. Thanks for posting that Irwin. I hadn’t seen that announcement yet.
🙂
The fed did a nice job lifting the markets today. My account shot up nicely with XOP and tech stocks.
Averaged in on NUGT at $11.17. Bought JDST at $8.98 today as a hedge. I have $1006 down on the table that gold goes above $1225 and $550 that gold drops below $1210. Taking profits either way.
I bought JDST at the end of the day yesterday or $8.92 and anticipated a small pullback for Tuesday in the PMs for a 1 day breather. So far in pre-market the PMs are down just a bit and JDST is trading between $9.25-$9.30.
Jason – I chickened out and sold at $9.31 to lock in a profit. The markets are just too volatile (even for me : – )
lol,
You guys have bigger beach balls then i do to play those vehicles. But a profit my friend is a profit.
Yep. I just wrote you back in the “End of the Bear Cycle” blog but I’ll just copy and paste it below here:
On April 7, 2015 at 8:11 am,
Shad says:
Glad I sold the (SGDM) Sprott Gold Fund ETF yesterday, and picked up the JDST at the close. I already traded back out of JDST at a profit and am back to cash at present. If we get a little more of a pullback in PMs this morning then I may go back in long for the next week or so in JNUG or SGDM.
Good luck to all.
I just bought a small position in JNUG at $20.12. It looks to me like it just triple-bottomed at 20.01, 20.03 (the most recent peak from April 2nd), and then at $20.01.
My beach balls just turned into Tennis balls, but I’ve already hit the buy button. Ahhhhaaahhhhh!
Hooray!! I finally got out of my JNUG position at a profit. What a Nerve-wrenching few days.
Again, I could care less about the decay in holding the ETF if I buy at a price and sell at a higher price (just like any other equity).
Jason…I don’t get buying both NUGT and JDST at the same time….that’s like cancelling each other out and you also have the erosion in price with both of these 3 x etfs? Your rational?
What Jason is doing is legit. If (when) the market goes against his long position, his short position will grow and give him the ability to buy more into the dip. A cash reserve obviously can’t do that. It’s psychologically beneficial too, since it allows a move against your core position to be seen in a positive way.
Just my 2 cents. Jason can probably add a few things.
I’ve done it before as well, and it depends where in the move you purchase both of the ETFs, so that one of the moves acts like insurance. Many times I only do this if expecting a big breakout from a flag or pennant where the direction is unknown.
I made a mistake buying into SPM. Silver up but it is down. I underestimated the sellers from the merger deal and am paying the price for it. It could role over from here IMHO. I own SPM.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPM.TO