Gary is thinks today is crucial for the overall trend of the markets
Gary kicks off today focusing on the conventional markets. He posted (on his blog) yesterday that today will tell the tail of the future direction of the markets. Will they be saved again? Let’s wait and see when the Fed minutes are released.
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EVERYONE RUSHING TO THE EXIT………………jmho
Hope everyone is well.
Talking about perspective about the Chinese mket recent performance, I suggest to have a look at the LAST CHART on the article below:
FWIW, I found it “mind blowing”.
Good luck to all investing/trading.
LPG
Hope everyone is well.
Talking about perspective about the Chinese mket recent performance, I suggest to have a look at the LAST CHART on the article below:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/greece-contained-except-crude-copper-fx-us-eu-stocks-peripheral-bonds
FWIW, I found it “mind blowing”.
Good luck to all investing/trading.
LPG
That was very Wonkafied!
Gary said the ultimate bottom in miners was in March. He in fact “went on the record” here on Ker in March and stated that “he was calling the ultimate bottom in miners.” He then developed the notion that the bankruptcy phase was about to come in order to hedge himself if wrong. Good calls. Looks like the bankruptcy phase is unfolding.
I believe that we saw THE bottom in March.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39723543600&a=415288718
This is probably a better clue:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p65821891752
As Tom well knows, and if he’s listened to any of my interviews over the last year, I think gold has a date with 1000-1050 before the final bottom. It’s still too early for the 8 year cycle low. March was just an intermediate cycle bottom, not a final bear market bottom.
A reversal is coming very soon.
SLV:GLD…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p20700702161&a=415279966
Yes, when and if the SPX breaks 2040!
Dear Gary and Richard,
Recently,Richard Russell said he thought an NB turning point would be if the DOW fell below 17,000. However,some may not remember him saying several years ago that a fall below the 233 dma would be significant.Today the 233 dma of the Dow is 17,585 and the Dow is(now) 17,558.
And one other thing;on NBR last night they started saying that the Greek situation might not allow them to raise interest rates in September. They are trying to back out of that commitment already.
Laurence, Good comment, I typically don’t use the 233 DMA, but will put it on my screen. Thanks.
I understand that these are scary situations; however, I still maintain that if the FED does NOT raise rates, which is really a non-event, although a good talking point, they will lose all credibility.
If the markets fell out of bed, that may be a different story; however, that would be a long way down.
Hope all’s well Al,
Especially when it comes to financial markets, everytime I hear someone pronounce the words “never” or “impossible”… I pause.
But that’s me. 😉
Best to you,
LPG
Let me try one: gold will NEVER go to 0
Agreed lawrence……that would be “impossible”……. 😉
ESPECIALLY WITH IRISH AROUND………
THE GOLD LEP RE CON MAN…
funny.
There’s nothing real ominous about the action in the juniors…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40191390266&a=415291111
Btw, does anyone believe that the NYSE is halted due to a “technical glitch?”
Yes, a technicall glitch. The US has sent an F-35 and a littoral combat ship to investigate.
That must be quite a technical glitch….
It’s been hours and still halted.
Finally no longer halted…
hell no…………..the exit is blocked………..and the last one thur will be the BIG FAT LADY SINGING ……….
she may not fit through the exits and may just serenade those rowing away as the ship sinks….
I figure if she stays in the back of the boat we will not go down head first………
plus doesn’t blubber float…………..
SLV traded a massive 24 million shares yesterday. That’s the kind of spike that shows up at or near the end of a trend.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85428235126&a=399402872
I’m showing an average day of roughly 6 million shares. Watch NUGT. Whenit spikes a huge volume up day then we might have an intermediate bottom.It’s probably still 5-10 week too early though.
Yes, I think also think its a bit early to say we seen the bottom of this leg, and expect more downside pressure to come throughout July and early August.
The “end of the trend” that I was referring to for SLV was the daily.
Still, I don’t it will be anywhere near 10 weeks for the intermediate low for the miners.
Agreed. Probably more like 3-5 weeks.
We need to have at least one more full daily cycle. Those have been running 25-35 trading days. So if one assumes a DCL by sometime next week then it should be a minimum of 5 weeks to maybe 7-8 weeks before the next daily cycle bottomsand the potential for an intermediate degree bottom.
DOES THE INTERRUPTION TODAY …….change the cycles……?
So that would put us into very late August or early September for the intermediate bottom. We’ll have to see if we get the daily cycle low in the next few days then, to start the new daily cycle count.
Thanks Gary.
Great comments and charts, as always Matthew. Thanks 🙂
Been waiting a long time for $15 GDX but I think it will bottom lower than that.
GDXJ (monthly chart – subscription needed):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=M&yr=5&mn=5&dy=15&id=p69214379821&a=415300915
We all flip flop from time to time Gary. Bullish one day, bearish the next. It is the nature of trading.
Being willing to revese ones view 180 degrees is absolutely critical to making money and more importantly limiting losses when one is wrong.
But as you well know I never called a final bear market low in gold back in March. It’s simply way too early in the 8 year cycle still. It may even be next fall before gold finds a final bottom, but I think there is a chance of it occurring this fall in conjunction with the 3 year cycle low in the CRB.
”..The really worrying financial crisis is happening in China, not Greece..”
Home» Finance» China business» http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11725236/The-really-worrying-financial-crisis-is-happening-in-China-not-Greece.html
China looks like it is heading for its version of the 1929 stock market crash
Already, there are warning signs of a slowdown, similar to those that front-ran the 1929 crash – Photo: Reuters
By Jeremy Warner
12:25PM BST 08 Jul 2015
While all Western eyes remain firmly focused on Greece, a potentially much more significant financial crisis is developing on the other side of world. In some quarters, it’s already being called China’s 1929 – the year of the most infamous stock market crash in history and the start of the economic catastrophe of the Great Depression.
In any normal summer, a 30pc fall in the Chinese stock market – a loss of value roughly equivalent to the UK’s entire economic output last year – after an ascent which had seen share prices more than double within the space of a year would have been front page news across the globe.
The dramatic series of government interventions to stem the panic – hitherto unsuccessful, it should be added – would similarly have been up there at the top of the news agenda. Yet the pantomime of the Greek debt talks, together with the tragi-comedy of will they, won’t they leave the euro, has relegated the story to little more than a footnote – even though 940 companies, more than a third, have now suspended trading on China’s two main indices.
The parallels with 1929 are, on the face of it, uncanny. After more than a decade of frantic growth, extraordinary wealth creation and excess, both economies – America in 1929 and China today – are at roughly similar stages of economic development. Both these booms, moreover, are in part explained by extremely rapid credit growth. Indeed, China’s credit boom dwarfs that of even the “roaring Twenties”. Borrowed money, or margin investing, played a major role in both these outbreaks of speculative excess.
True, the Chinese stock market bubble is only a one-year wonder, whereas the build-up to the Wall Street Crash of 1929 was more sustained. Even so, the comparison still holds. As noted by JK Galbraith in his classic account, The Great Crash 1929, even as late as 1927 it was possible to argue that American stocks represented fair value.
It was only in the final year that the “escape into make-believe” happened in earnest, when the stock market rose by nearly 50pc. This applies to the Shanghai Composite, too. Stripping out the lowly-rated banking sector, valuations for just about everything else have rocketed, making those that ruled on Wall Street in the run-up to October 24, 1929, look relatively modest. Nor do the similarities end there. As in 1920s America, China’s stock market boom has ridden in tandem with an equally speculative real estate bubble.
The macro-economic backdrop is also surprisingly similar. Then, as now in China, rural workers had emigrated to the cities in vast numbers in the hope of finding a more prosperous life in fast-growing industrial sectors. In 1920s America, virtually all these sectors – from steel to automobiles and the new technologies of radio and consumer durables – grew like Topsy, inspiring households to invest in them and chase the apparently bountiful profits they were generating.
A similar explosion in industrial activity has taken place in China, only more so. China has packed more development into a few short decades than any country in recorded history before, creating a worldwide glut in industrial capacity that even global demand, let alone domestic Chinese demand, is struggling to accommodate.
Already, there are warning signs of a slowdown, similar to those that front-ran the 1929 crash – depressed commodity prices and a virtual hiatus in global trade growth. The Chinese economy is like one of those cartoon characters who manages to keep running long after leaving the edge of the cliff, only belatedly to look down and plunge into the abyss.
Naturally, there are many dissimilarities too, not least that China is still essentially a planned and centrally-controlled economy which has so far managed to defy the usual rules of economics. The consensus is that this time will be no different, that even if the stock market does continue to crash, the impact will be no worse than 2007-08, when the Shanghai Composite fell by two-thirds. Yet after a massive fiscal and monetary stimulus, the wider economy barely lost a beat. Have no fear, the Chinese authorities have it all under control. Believe it if you will.
I don’t buy it. Indeed, I can see very little evidence for China’s technocratic elite having things under control. The firebreaks that China put in place over the weekend to mitigate the panic are, in practice, not much different from those applied during the Great Crash of 1929, only this time it’s public rather than private money that promises to quell the fire. They failed spectacularly in 1929. This time around, they’ve thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, but so far it has produced only a mild, and wholly unconvincing, rebound. The fire still smoulders, threatening to break out anew.
Besides, China cannot forever, Greenspan-like, keep answering each successive bubble by creating another. First it was gold, then housing, and when cooling measures threatened an all-out bust in the property and construction markets, the taps were turned on afresh, producing a further flood of money into the stock market. The authorities were happy to tolerate the bull market at first, hoping it might encourage a switch from debt to equity financing, but there seems little chance of that now. The stock market boom has only succeeded in adding to the debt.
Whether any of this turns into a calamitous economic meltdown obviously depends on the rest of the response. Policymakers have learned a thing or two since 1929; we now know that the real damage in financial crises is done not by the crash itself, but by a collapsing banking sector. Stock markets are only a signal of credit contraction to come. Even so, I doubt China has as much of a handle on its banks, and more particularly its shadow banking sector, as it pretends.
One further thought on these parallels. Now that the export-led model of economic of growth seems to have reached its natural end, at least for China, president Xi Jinping pins his hopes on internal consumer demand to drive growth, and he’s vowed to continue with the free-market reforms of predecessors to help achieve this. Unfortunately, it’s proving a difficult transition. Part of the problem with free markets is that by definition they cannot be controlled. Busts are as much part of their DNA as the wealth-enhancing properties of their booms. As China is about to discover, bad downturns come with the territory.
I would love to see NUGT hit $12.50 on the rally. Then it’s back in to JDST.
Looks like the markets had to be broken today to stop the crash…