Minimize

Welcome!

Interesting Times are here. Here is Doc’s take on them.

Big Al
September 24, 2015

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Gold continues to maintain a price slightly above $1150. Will this last?

Discussion
114 Comments
    Sep 24, 2015 24:44 AM

    On the move in gold: “I predicted would happen”. Really Doc?? I listen to you everyday and you have been saying sideways to down. I may agree with you that we are heading back down, but we have had a nice move in gold over the past month. Let’s be frank with investors.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:48 AM

      +1 really wonder if they can hear themselves speak

        Sep 24, 2015 24:45 AM

        common let’s be fair.Look at my comment and “power corrupts” comment.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:26 PM

          Let’s learn the difference between “common” and “come on”.
          I think someone here said, “your spelling indicates your intelligence”.
          -goes for grammar too – and I don’t mean Gramma.

          (checked with spell checker)

            Sep 24, 2015 24:47 PM

            Irwin = TROLL

            Sep 24, 2015 24:52 PM

            Don’t be ridiculous. Irwin has been around here forever. He has a whacky sense of humour is all. I figure he is a pretty decent guy.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:38 PM

            I like Irwin as a contributor on this site, and agree he is often a true contrarian in his comments & humor. I like his “out of the box” points, questions, articles, and charts.

            However, I disagree with the statement that just because someone here said “your spelling indicates your intelligence, ” that this carries with it the authoritative stamp of truth. There are plenty of ignorant jackasses on this site that have typed in flawless grammar and spelling. Some of the best….type like a mess…

            I have a college education, I write about 100 emails a day in a fortune 100 company, and have a reasonably high IQ according to most tests I’ve taken. In a previous life I worked in advertising/journalism, in both a newspaper, and a magazine; yet I make spelling mistakes on the blog regularly. Normally it is because I am typing while in a hurry or tired.

            Some of the more intelligent contributors here make spelling mistakes quite often, and most people don’t give a hoot. As for Big Al with common versus come on….he was just trying to hip for the new text-based shorthand culture. 🙂

            * Remember this is only a blog…..not a job resume and it’s not being graded. Geesh…

            Sep 24, 2015 24:46 PM

            ha,ha,ha………..GOOD ONE …….EX………..going the ex mile………ootb

            Sep 24, 2015 24:48 PM

            Gotta inject a little humor every now and then.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:50 PM

            We still love ya…Irwin……………

            Sep 24, 2015 24:52 PM

            Yes FFM ….going the “Ex” tra mile…..

            Yes, we love Irwin, just not spelling bee champions. (not that there’s anything wrong with that)

            Sep 24, 2015 24:58 PM

            I ENJOYED THE RANT……..ootb, claw, ccf, jthe long, ect. ect. ect.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:01 PM

            ect…..electro shock therapy …….etc….etc….etc….

            Sep 24, 2015 24:04 PM

            I’m just more interested in the information someone is trying to convey, or the point they are making; than their spelling accuracy.

            Hay, too ich there oun……..(I mean, “Hey, to each their own……”)

            I

            Sep 24, 2015 24:08 PM

            I can promise you the technology company I work for is a Fortune 100 company and that I send and receive over 100 emails on almost every day of the week.

            I changed the name because I do blog on here while it work. I posted a few yesterday and a few today and still had time for 114 other emails.

            The fact that you need to make it a personal credibility attack, and missed the point that I was admitting I’m a fairly intelligent person and make spelling mistakes all the time is sad, but not surprising.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:13 PM

            Did not see the personal attack, sorry Excelsior!

            Sep 24, 2015 24:50 PM

            The comment was already removed.

            Sep 25, 2015 25:15 AM

            Compare these two sentences from two separate posts. I was correct about your comment not being truthful.

            First you said……”I write about 100 emails a day”

            Later you changed your story too……
            “I send AND receive over 100 emails on ALMOST every day of the week”

            Well I get 100 emails some days and most are junk mail. So what?

            Sep 25, 2015 25:16 AM

            Maybe check the IQ at the door. Many thanks.

            Sep 25, 2015 25:08 AM

            A Listener –

            They are all business emails, not junk emails, and the point was that the spelling and grammar in those messages has to be fairly accurate as they are either going to senior management in major corporation or to the CFOs, COOs, and Directors of other large corporations we work with.

            The point is that when I’m typing on a blog, it isn’t being graded, and I often have spelling mistakes or incorrect grammar – and don’t give a flying flip.

            This message was in response to what Irwin typed to Big Al that “your spelling indicates your intelligence”. That is a foolish statement (something you know a thing or two about), and people on this site are far to critical of other bloggers.

            I’m done discussing this with you, and see if you can go one day without arguing with someone or getting in a tussle. Just go play with your pet turtle and chill out a little.

            Sep 25, 2015 25:06 AM

            Yeup!

            Sep 25, 2015 25:34 PM

            No Shad, the point is that as an anonymous poster on a public internet site your personal accomplishments mean pretty much zero. We don’t care if you work for Fortune 100 or if you work in a cafeteria washing floors.

            Let me explain something to you. Nobody here know your real name. Nobody knows your real work. We cannot see you or shake your hand. And because of that the only thing that matters for credibility is what you post in written words.

            You cannot impress me by trophy’s you won in College, by how pretty your wife might be or even how many accolades you got as a rising business executive. Because none of that matters.

            When we strip away the ego and pride and clutter that is normally associated with how people view one another in normal social engagements it means the only thing that matters is your presentation by the written word.

            You are a disembodied person who is present only by what is typed on your keyboard. And so am I. That is what has value and that is how the message is delivered.

            All the rest is pointless bragging and it achieves nothing.

            Can you see my riding my Harley or my horse? Of course not! Do you even believe I own a Harley or a horse? I guess I could say anything I want and it is up to readers to decide if I was being truthful or not. But none of it matters.

            The message is the words Shad. What you do in real life does not carry any meaning as long as you post as an unknown and anonymous person. So you are free to say anything at all.

            Just don’t expect me to believe it!!!!!!!!

            Sep 26, 2015 26:51 AM

            You are way off on a tangent man.

            My response was not even to you, it was in response to the comment Irwin posted to Big Al that said:

            “I think someone here said, “your spelling indicates your intelligence”.

            I was simply making the point that there are many intelligent people on this site that make spelling errors. CFS was a professor and Lawrence was a physicist (although based on your rant and critique we aren’t supposed to believe any of that) and they make spelling mistakes on the blog. Should we conclude they aren’t intelligent?

            Bird – from now on we’ll only grade people’s intelligence by their spelling accuracy.

            Thanks for completely missing the point. You don’t hear well for being a “Listener”, but you may have bird droppings in your ears. As you said: “We cannot see you or shake your hand.” so we’ll have to assume your ears and eyes are full of dung based on your words to most people on this site on a daily basis.

            Cheers!

            Sep 26, 2015 26:17 PM

            Yeup, and Ex gets a square. 🙂

            Sep 26, 2015 26:30 PM

            🙂

            Sep 26, 2015 26:06 PM

            Nope. I am not off tangent. I am right on point. I called you a liar (which I proved you are in an earlier post) and you ran screaming and crying like a little girl to Al and Cory and had my post deleted. If that post were still here then all of this conversation would make perfect sense.

            Next time, don’t bullshit us readers. We can see right through you.

            And we do not care about your bragging because it carries no value here.

            Sep 26, 2015 26:14 PM

            Just curious btw..why does you girlfriend keep getting involved in this conversation? Can’t we just keep it between you and me?……..and leave the sweetie to the cooking and cleaning.

            Sep 27, 2015 27:15 PM

            I didn’t ask to have that comment deleted Bird, they did it automatically when they saw the personal attack. Kinda like the second personal attack you just launched when you are now calling me a liar. This kind of childish confrontational behavior gets old, and honestly it keeps me from wanting to engage with you on other posts where you actually are making good points and not acting like a jackass.

            You make some good comments on here sometimes, but lately you’ve started acting hostile and rude towards many posters, and you are not creating an atmosphere that makes people want to share or interact with you. This is why most of your posts go unanswered.

            Sad man….just contribute without being so quick to name call and argue. You’re a smart guy….but lately have acted like it.

            Sep 27, 2015 27:17 PM

            have NOT acted like it….smart that is….. Hoping for better from you and getting back to real investing discussions instead of this 8 yr old banter from you.

            Sep 28, 2015 28:57 AM

            You got caught fibbing. Just own up to it and stop diverting.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:04 AM

      The week ended August 28 gold’s high was 1169 and its low was 1116. So far this week – one month later – gold’s high is 1156 and its low is 1120. That’s a pretty good definition of sideways by me.

        Sep 25, 2015 25:55 AM

        Great point Power Corrupts. Gold has been whipsawing in a range, and while there may be a little oomph left on the uptrend, this smells like a counter-trend rally, and Not the confirmation that July 24th was the Major Bottom. It is most probable that Gold will get up to $1169 or $1180 resistance and then turn back down, and doesn’t look like it has the fuel to get to $1224 unless something big breaks out next week.

        Doc, Jordan Roy-Byrne, and Avi Gilburts calls for a counter-trend rally here followed by a lower low later in the year seems like it’s on the menu.

        Good luck to all in their investing and trades!

      Sep 24, 2015 24:44 AM

      I believe that he is Ryan. Remember his comments about “maybe a blip or two” but we will remain sideways to down.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:06 PM

      I’ll be “Frank” although I’m Doc. I’ve been mentioning over and over that we would get bumps. The last time I looked asset prices don’t stay at one price forever. Every time we’ve had a bounce, I’ve said it won’t last and the last time I checked December isn’t here yet. When all is said and done around the time of December, we’ll see where gold is and it in all likelihood will be lower then we are today.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:31 PM

        Don’t let them ruffle your feathers Doc. You have been correct thus far in the time frames you are using. Not everyone listens to the shows that closely.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:54 PM

          A Listener; of course you’re correct and I have to remember some folks probably don’t listen consistently. Thanks for smoothing out my feathers.

            bb
            Sep 24, 2015 24:57 PM

            I figure I listen pretty close.
            I like your thinking and appreciate your effort Doc.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:23 PM

            Makes two of us. Go Doc!

        Sep 24, 2015 24:40 PM

        those shoes of “FRANK”….are hard to fill……………….. 🙂

          Sep 24, 2015 24:54 PM

          Yeah because Frank wears “Das Boot”.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:51 PM

        Good points Doc. Yes, you mentioned the bump, blips, and pops may come, but that over all the trend will be sideways to down in the falling wedge. I said the same thing earlier in the year, then mentioned we’d get an August bounce after the summer doldrums from June-early August concluded, and we did (but it was just a counter-trend rally). Then last week I mentioned we’d get another pop, but that it wouldn’t be a major move.

        Gold is only in the $1150’s not above $1308, $1347, or $1382 so we can’t ring the bells that the new bull market is raging as that would be very premature. Doc doesn’t typically do the shorter-term trades, and usually is coming coming at things with a several month to a year time-frame, and his insights are always appreciated.

        To get upset because he didn’t emphasis another short-term counter-trend rally is a bit disconnected from what Doc has been discussing anyway. From a longer term outlook on the weekly and monthly charts, we’ll likely still see gold trend sideways with a downward bias later in the year on one more leg down. Doc has had a similar projection for most of this year and has been fairly accurate.

        Keep up the good work man.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:16 PM

          Thanks for the vote of confidence, Excelcior!

            Sep 24, 2015 24:51 PM

            Doc’s technical insights are a great asset to us all, and have been for years.

            Thanks for all you guys do.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:46 PM

      No one can predict short term market day to day.

      But on medium term forecasting on gold, Doc is pretty amazingly accurate.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:03 PM

        Agreed! Doc is the man, and while we all make mistakes or get surprised by the markets, he has been amazingly accurate for years on many trends in the macro equity markets, bonds, currencies, and especially when analyzing individual stocks or ETFS. He also gets paid $0 to contribute, so I say he’s quite a nice guy for providing his thoughts to us all daily (as well as Gary, Rick, Chris, Big Al, and Cory).

    Sep 24, 2015 24:51 AM

    Dow is getting close to breaking below 16000 today at 16050.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:52 AM

      heading to 10,000…….

      Sep 24, 2015 24:53 AM

      Oops, 16070.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:35 AM

      15,910 basis the futures a short while ago. Tomorrow is another down day. But I remain highly optimistic about Monday.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:48 PM

        Fridays are almost always sell-off days.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:52 PM

          And Mondays are almost always up…..

          Sep 24, 2015 24:58 PM

          I don’t know…..there have been a number of “Feel Good Fridays” where everything was slightly up to flat as people quit focusing on the markets heading into the weekend. I can also remember quite a few Mondays that started off with a punch to the gut with a 2-3% drop.

          It’s a mixed bag and Fridays and Mondays are just like any other day (nobody knows which way the tide of the market will pull the prices).

            Sep 25, 2015 25:28 AM

            S&P 500 1,944.50 +12.26 (0.63%)

            Dow 16,381.88 +180.56 (1.11%)

            Nasdaq 4,740.15 +5.67 (0.12%)

            Crude Oil 45.57 +1.47%
            Gold 1,145.80 -0.69%
            EUR/USD 1.1197 +0.21%

            Yep….. It looks like a feel good Friday after all.

            Sep 29, 2015 29:18 AM

            Yep Monday was a punch to the gut in the general markets and Friday was rather tame. This is why I disagreed that “Fridays are almost always sell-off days” and disagreed that “Mondays are almost always up”. Just sayin…..

            Sep 29, 2015 29:47 AM

            Friday was rather tame and up in many sectors, and today Monday was a “punch to the gut” I was mentioning seemed much more likely.

            This is why I disagreed with both statements, “Fridays are almost always sell-off days” and “Mondays are almost always up….” . Simply not the case, and I can remember many times where this Feelgood Friday and Monday sucker punch was much more the trend. Like I said the first time, “It’s a mixed bag and Fridays and Mondays are just like any other day (nobody knows which way the tide of the market will pull the prices).”

      Sep 24, 2015 24:48 AM

      Maybe, but not quite yet.

    Sep 24, 2015 24:54 AM

    GDX versus gold had a nice pop up last week but has given most of it back. It will be interesting to see if the ratio bottoms near here:
    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=gdx%3A%24gold

      Sep 24, 2015 24:59 AM

      Gold is still up in all 14 currencies shown on Kitco today.

      Sep 25, 2015 25:59 AM

      It is not overly positive for the miners that they haven’t rallied much while gold has bounced. This foretells the bifurcation between the metals, the miners, and the rotation in equities and that this move is hasn’t shown much strength or conviction in PMs.

    Sep 24, 2015 24:00 AM

    This is an unusual day, but waiting see ANY sort of trend continues:

    DOWN: Conventions-1%
    UP Gold/ Silver +2%
    Junior Miners +6%

      Sep 24, 2015 24:49 AM

      As am I Brian. For now I am sticking with Gary and Doc and Cory, for that matter.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:06 PM

        Al

        One thing I’ve started doing on these intermittent swings up-dow-up-down:

        Watching to see which PM stocks, relative to others in their group:

        (a) make a large-than-average upward move
        THEN ALSO
        (b) make a smaller-than-average downward move

        I think these stock picks will be the HUGE winners when PMs finally take off into 2020.

        Brian

          Sep 24, 2015 24:08 PM

          Good point—it would be great in the future if you mentioned what you’ve seen.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:18 PM

          I know what I typed is the HISTORICAL ESSENCE of TA and charting; I just think that sometimes the chart does not convey “the feeling I get” when a stock has on an UP or DOWN day. ~ Brian

            Sep 24, 2015 24:18 PM

            .. and Kirkland Gold is the one I am kind of watching today (It had very good press a couple days ago)

            Sep 25, 2015 25:30 AM

            Brian – Trust your intuition when it is speaking to conscious mind or when you get a “gut feeling”…..but it doesn’t hurt to cross-examine it with some technical analysis as well 🙂

          Sep 24, 2015 24:01 PM

          Great points Brian. It is good to look at one sector versus another over both short and long time horizons to see if a trend or correlation is developing, or simply to look for out-performance in one sector.

          Also I’m a fan of Kirkland Lake, and took a more serious look at it earlier in the year when you brought it up, then noticed other groups tracking it as nice mover, and it’s been on my shortlist of small gold producers and outperformed most of it’s peers on a percentage basis this year.

          Good stuff!

          Sep 24, 2015 24:39 PM

          Yep, Brian, there will be some huge profits!

    bb
    Sep 24, 2015 24:04 AM

    Up about 40 cdn, we see how much it holds onto.
    20 american, I just dont see as a big deal, gonna take more than that to move my shares up significantly.

    Sep 24, 2015 24:05 AM
    Sep 24, 2015 24:52 AM

    So Mr. Armstrong is saying a Dow below 16,280 signals “look out below”!

      Sep 24, 2015 24:00 PM

      tighten up your stops, and forget the stopper on the wine bottle.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:52 PM

        Stopper on the wine bottle? Why would any professional, like me, need a stopper?

          Sep 25, 2015 25:02 AM

          Agreed…. no stopper required. : – )

      Sep 24, 2015 24:01 PM

      as a trader Al it suggests a retest of the Aug low which could provide a perfect double bottom before making new highs in 2016 depending on $YEN

        Sep 24, 2015 24:36 PM

        We are going to 15,500 on the DOW by my reckoning so then I suppose that does mean the slingshot will be in play. What do you think jj? Are we going to 15,500 on the Dow?

          Sep 24, 2015 24:12 PM

          I have no idea and neither do you, if you always made calls based on your opinion and are always right you’d be a zillionaire by now but you don’t back up your opinion with a big short position do you, I carry big positions based on the chart and my position is long gold, silver and the miners using NUGT I’m not trading the DOW as you can’t dance with them all. Armstrong is just calling to attention key support levels that must hold or its on to the next that’s what traders do so if NUGT can close above its next resistance level at $3.68 I’ll be along for the ride as the next level is $4.34…$4.78…$5.26 if it rolls over and the chart suggests exiting I’m out with gains NO losses

          I’m sure the big chart techies will be hoping for a double Dow bottom then higher into 2016 as Japan continues to devalue its currency driving the S&P500 higher

            Sep 24, 2015 24:30 PM

            I agree….you don’t know. 🙂

          Sep 24, 2015 24:32 PM

          AND NIETHER DO YOU!!

            Sep 24, 2015 24:06 PM

            Actually….you are wrong about that. It’s why we are different.

            Sep 25, 2015 25:31 AM

            A Listener – “the all knowing” …… yeah right…..

    Sep 24, 2015 24:00 PM

    Doc, 9 days ago TGD dropped to .20 as you predicted when it was .27 Today it reached .28, it’s 50 day moving avg, and has fallen back to .27. I guess I should sell some of what I bought@.213, but I may hold for the long term and watch it fall back to .20 It’s hard to sell a good thing I think will rise 20 or 30 fold long term. Did you see its presentation at the Denver Gold Conference yesterday? MVG, SLW, AG, EXK, AXU PVG, MUX, and NGD look good too long term.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:11 PM

      BB; I believe your thought process on TGD is good. You might have a chance at $.30 before it turns lower again. I like the long term chart right now since it looks like it may be establishing its’ low BB trading range. Time will tell.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:12 PM

        BB; I might add that the volume has been huge.

          Sep 24, 2015 24:06 PM

          Looks like there are big orders to buy TGD @.20

            Sep 25, 2015 25:01 AM

            Good thoughts on Timmins Gold Corp guys.

    Sep 24, 2015 24:03 PM

    Doc, Rice Owls beat the point spread against U. Texas. Should I take Rice and 34 in the Baylor game this Sat.? Seems like a good bet, but Baylor is explosive.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:39 PM

      My opinion, any time you can get that many points, do it!

    Sep 24, 2015 24:27 PM

    The loonie gapped down today but has reversed and climbed back inside the Bollinger Bands.
    http://schrts.co/nNHMXh

      Sep 24, 2015 24:43 PM

      Meaning what exactly? What is your call on it?

      Sep 24, 2015 24:57 PM

      I’ve mentioned in the past that the loonie has chance to get down to 61—I believe this is the beginning of the next leg down.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:58 PM

        I don’t know Doc, a lot is on your side but I don’t see such a move beginning right here. Unless we get a stock market crash, I think we’ll get a move to at least 78-79 first.
        http://schrts.co/TMS2Rs

    Sep 24, 2015 24:29 PM

    Weekend show today?!? We haven’t even had Friday yet!

      Sep 24, 2015 24:36 PM

      Necessity is the Mothers of Invention. Remember Frank Zappa?

    Sep 24, 2015 24:36 PM

    Gold will be moving above 1200 during this next leg up. Probably to 1250 or higher. It will create a feeling that the bottom is in for gold. It is not. I still believe that a deflationary global bust will take gold down to the $600-$800 range, oil down to the teens, copper down to $1.50 and the SPX to the 500s by Spring.

    Talking heads on TV and in the media or wasting time talking about the possibility of a rate raise. The seeds are sown and the Fed has lost control. Commodities in the market are going to unravel in the fourth quarter.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:34 PM

      Hi Velma,

      I can’t agree with you regarding gold. But then again, I was wrong once before!

      Sep 25, 2015 25:06 AM

      That’s a pretty bleak forecast Velma. Where did you come up with the $600-$800 figures for gold, Oil in the teens, and Copper to $1.50?

      Those seem so low that the commodity industry would be on it’s knees and most companies would close their doors at those prices, so I find it hard to believe things would go that low.

      Just curious as to if it is technical analysis or a gut feeling from where you came up with those numbers?

    Sep 24, 2015 24:41 PM

    I love the negativity I am hearing regarding miners.

      Sep 25, 2015 25:08 AM

      You do know that too much negativity is bullish, right?

    Sep 24, 2015 24:45 PM

    I don’t know if anyone wants to hear this but I think Chinese stock markets have hit bottom based on my Elliot counts. The Shanghai is what I watch and it looks positive and on a buy.

      Sep 24, 2015 24:54 PM

      Ergo….I am buying it and damn the torpedoes. Those guys know how to gamble over there. Can’t resist the usual updraft.

        Sep 24, 2015 24:55 PM

        Goooooooo Chinaaaaaa!!!!! Rah rah rah!

          Sep 24, 2015 24:58 PM

          A Listener; be verrrrrrrrrry carrrrrreeeeefulllllllll.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:33 PM

            We all need a little excitement in our lives. And it worked out so well last year when we first talked about it. Just depends on the time frames Doc. This is a trade not a marriage but you probably already know that about me anyway. Pure mercenary.

            Sep 24, 2015 24:27 PM

            Mercenary? I seriously doubt that.

    bj
    Sep 24, 2015 24:47 PM

    Agree whole heatedly about no interest rate increase this year…and when was the last time they raised rates in a presidential election year? …just saying….

    Sep 24, 2015 24:46 PM

    Doc is the master of saying nothing

      Sep 24, 2015 24:10 PM

      I would think that most of us would not agree with that Catman.

    Sep 25, 2015 25:58 AM

    I kind of enjoy throwing one bone to three dogs – and watch.

    Three Dog Night (the original girlie-men)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnyh6i9NvmE