We start Tuesday with Gary Savage
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Natural Gas is currrently trading a bit above $2 per mcf at $2.10. Gary feels that this one is worth looking at.
Gold remains resilient trading up about $0.90 at $1167 per ounce.
Some of our technicians disagree with me, but I still believe that now is not a bad time to accumulate gold and, even, silver.
Chinese war ships to dock in FLORIDA PORTS…………see zerohedge and jdsmineset
scheduled to dock……….NOV 3 NOV 5.
I read that Frank, odd stuff, the Americans just sent a warship thru Chinese waters.
China calls American ambassador to Bejing? to protest.
bb…..what is the docking about……………
No idea, havnt found anyone with information or even an opinion yet.
That because most have not seen it………..
That is….. forgot is…..
I am not sure it is OLD STUFF…………
ODD STUFF, but talk has been going on about it for a few days, the americans finally sent their ship which is why its news today.
No talk on this site…………..seem to be a bunch of slow polks……………..
So, the Americans are going to dock in the new Chinese docks, and the Chinese are going to go fishing in FLORIDA…..that should make GATOR real happy……….lol
The americans docking at a Chinese port is possible I guess, would have to wonder at the Chinese protest tho.
A lot of news is not discussed here, why should it really? Gold hasn’t been affected by news for awhile now.
bb…..THIS is not a DEBATE……just seems to be IMPORTANT INFO. which is forward looking……
Frank, I wasn’t debating, where you?
What had you thinking it was a debate?
AT some point in time…..the NEWS will be important , and a lot of sheeple will be sorry the warning signs were there, but, to dang lazy to see , hear, and act.
And, maybe not wanting to admit!
Just wanted to clarify, prior to starting any debate….communicating in type, is sometimes difficult……..No problem…just info. passing………….ootb
Human nature Frank.
I don’t think this “sheeple” stuff is as big a deal as its made out to be.
Besides, when was the last time you read anyone here doing anything about anything? Maybe help a person or small group of people but anything that has some king of effect?
Don’t believe so. Maybe everybody is “sheeple”.
bb……….sorry for the correction on ODD AND OLD…….I just saw the difference , I put my other GLASSES ON…..sorry for the misunderstand….
BB
It isn’t odd when one realizes that the United States, Russia, China, etc. were all created by (built up into superpowers) by the same New Age crackpots. These same superpowers are going to be pitted against one another (all by design) to help usher in a one world government that the masses will be begging for after all the bloodshed.
That is the long range globalist plan for sure Bentnail. The David Rockefeller organizations of the Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission have a one world government/one currency agenda and have been very open this is the plan. They move their puppet leaders and military forces around the global chessboard to great the (Problem/Reaction/Solution) in their favor.
The same thing will happen with the currencies, as this is the plan as well. Make the currency values so Problematic, that there is an outcry from the people to “do something” (Reaction), and then they wheel in their powerpoint presentation on why a Global currency would be more “Fair” to all nations. Debt will be forgiven in a Jubilee and Wolf in Sheeps clothing (UN/G20/G8) will be happy to make it a happy and peachy one world system.
Fun times!
Debt forgiveness is just code for a lot of other people not getting paid back what they invested. We need only wonder who will pay the price that allows others to escape their payment schedules.
Agreed. It blows my mind that people think that there won’t be repercussions from debt forgiveness. Someone didn’t get paid back, and that has a ripple effect.
At the current debt levels of many nations on the globe, the math doesn’t support the debt getting paid back (especially at the rate it is growing). If interest rates ever do increase, it will be a big mess.
The only way nations like Japan or the US or Euroland and now even China have found to deal with it is attempting to inflate their way out of it, but everyone is just treading water. The debt bubble and currency depreciation will come home to roost eventually, but my concern is that this will be the moment when the globalists push for a single basket of currencies, which would transition over to single global currency eventually.
Maybe this is just the way things just need to play out, but it is a big part of why I first became interested in “stuff” (PMs, base metals, Oil/Gas, Uraninum, specialty metals, fertilizers, soft commodities, real estate, etc…). I’m not sure exactly what they’ll all be worth in that kind of environment, but they should be at least worth something. (money, energy, food, land/buildings). It’s an interesting time to be alive…..
When you start using that word “interesting” I start getting very nervous, Shad!
Absolutely Hilarious Bentnail.
Where did you find that, Bentnail?
BIG AL
I remember watching that on “American Inventor” when it was on television. It was beyond bizarre in my opinion. Something made me think of the video today and I thought it would be fun to share it with all of you fine folks.
According what I read in a chinese site, US and China are making a show out of this. BOTH countries have no desire to start a war. US has to show some thing for Chinese action but it is so publicized and announced way in advance to have any surprise factor. They also must be talking underneath the table, let me pass and nothing will happen. China will cooperate. US get the face value and china gets the real thing. Both are happy. Both got what they want most so it may turn out to be non-event. This has been the way last two decades.
EXACTLY……………see the tape at jdsmindset…..
11.3(NOV3)..11.5(NOV 5)………polite advanced warning….the ships are arriving at the door steps on those dates…….This publication was printed in JANUARY.
… taking gold deleveries … 🙂
A FRENCH REPLAY…..1971
Shorts might was to cover……………….
Shorts might want to cover………..
Turd is still negative with the COT report … Doc will like that.
As did Rick, Gabriel!
TURD is spot on……..
A FRENCH REPLAY … Et pourtant DeGaulle nous avait prévenu en 1965.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9r1NLMFixo&feature=youtu.be
THE DEBT MUST BE PAID……………….
Think I read the other day 51% of American workers earn 30k or less.
Amazing….how can anyone save and invest at those levels?
THEY CAN NOT…….
I would guess that you could Listener.
You guessed right bb. I still have plenty of worries. But money is not one of them.
That is more than just slightly interesting. What are those folks thinking?
They’re thinking Sha-la-la-la-la-la, live for today
And don’t worry ’bout tomorrow, hey, hey, hey…..
It seems that is the trend for the up and coming Millenials, but not so much with the Generation Xers or Boomers. I was watching how the disappearance of the 401k and pension in many professions hasn’t helped people be disciplined about saving for retirement when left to their own devices.
It reminds me of the story of the Grasshopper and the Ants.
I
Gary, you’ve been spot on for many moons regarding the conventional markets. It looks like they are about to roll over and get hit. There might be some kind of QE coming, but it’s not going into the conventional stocks IMO.
Also, look at the gold chart. When the 50 DMA crosses above the 100 DMA with strength, it usually results in a waterfall decline. I do believe that is coming.
but– when is it coming…
as for china/us— all blunder & bluster… drama
“When the 50 DMA crosses above the 100 DMA with strength, it usually results in a waterfall decline.”
Thats because the bear market rally was coming to an end. I’m starting to lean in the camp that says the metals are no longer in a bear market.
I’m not sure why you think the stock market is about to roll over. This has been an exceptionally pwerful rally that has broken right through every resistance level like a hot knife through butter. That smells like QE has already begun to me.
Gary-
The internal components look horrible. Secondly, 5YR rates are 1.35% with SPX around 2060. The last time SPX was 2060, 5YR rates were in the 1.8% range. It looks like the 5YR wants to visit 1%.
You are right, there has been strong momentum behind this move cutting through resistance; however, a 3 day plunge typically creates a vacuum to the upside on a bounce. Obviously, the market has to decline down through 2045 and 2020 to discuss bearish moves.
There is a major disconnect between energy stocks and oil. If Gary is right on the oil cycle, then that would explain the overvaluation of energy stocks; however, if this is not the case, the energy sector has a lot further to fall.
Chris Temple had some interesting commentary on that today. I tend to agree Richard.
Chris is one sharp guy!
Agree 100%. I always said he was brilliant and he has not let us down.
Energy stocks are actually under-peforming compared to how they did months ago. When XOP was about $54, oil was also about the same price. Now with oil at 43.25, XOP is $35. It has fallen from $56.
Paul, I’d be curious to get your mid range views on how the ETFs like OIH, XLE, DIG, XOP, etc… will perform relative to the spot price of oil. Do you sense a decoupling in the stocks relative to the spot price?
The spot price of Oil and the equities that follow the oil markets seem like 2 different markets at present, and your post made me think about asking you for your thoughts since you follow it rather closely. We had some thoughts on around Oil on the Chris Temple editorial today if you want to weigh any on any of the discussion.
Cheers!
The stock market rally is almost identical to the rally from one year ago, with the exception of a new high. The FOMC minutes are not posted until 11/18, so the only information will be whether they hike rates or not. To me, it appears that rates are heading lower.
Paint drying is funner than these markets..something is happening behind the scenes…almost like an ‘strange” silence before a BOOM……of significant magnitude….fwiw
Check out my note above…………CHINESE WAR SHIPS TO DOCK IN FLORIDA….might want to check into this……………..just saying…………………ootb
I READ YOUR COMMENTS ABOVE, and yes it’s the TOP STORY on CCTV NEWS, China Central Television News, it’s getting quite serious from their point of view, tune in to that channel at the top of the hour……..American news channels are poo, pooing the story!
Well Mark, might be wise to have a good bottle of your favorite a few J.s and your favorite girl around for awhile.
Heck, maybe put some money on the Cubs to win it all too.
Really great to see them in the Series!
I saw them play at their ballpark a couple of years ago and, let me tell you, it was really great!
thanks for the comment MARK………….appreciate……THE NORTH AMERICAN SHEEPLE are asleep at the switch.
YUP…………..they don’t know or want to know anything!
More interested in Blue Jays……and bird watching…………..lol
Chirp chirp.
FFM…time to take down the outriggers and install the 50 cal on the bow….no talk on the docks as yet regarding the Chinese ships…guess they don’t monitor KER….
Gator………if you get lucky maybe you can sell some swamp ground to those CHINESE SAILOR…….
Let me know if you need any ammo………there are some good old boys just up the street…
Had an interesting discussion at our Discussion Group last Friday. Know who percentage have conceal and carry permits. The answer is by far the majority. And, this is a very sophisticated group.
Need to find out which port they are thinking of landing in……TAMPA, would be interesting. TYPE a note to Kerry Lutz..at FSN.
FFM..I’ve got a coast guard buddy stationed at Tampa..we’re going out of John’s Pass this week end for grouper if the weather holds..maybe we’ll see a Chinese Junk…
Gator, the Ships are going to Mayport Naval….over at Jacksonville…..
Have a great trip…..hope you catch a bunch…..
Congress……wants more money for the military in the new budget………
The neo cons always want more money for war. nutin new there.
What is new, is the reason those whales died on the west coast is trickling out.
They died of starvation, they were krill eaters.
Fukashima was killing herring months ago, its working its way up the food chain.
****** HERE’S ONE FOR EVERYONE……have anyone noticed how most Americans are so moody and angry these days………….seems like so many are stressed out and on the edge!
******* EVERYONE IS IN A HURRY……………no one cares about anybody else anymore………..it’s sad, very sad!
Yes, I have and it is very unfortunate ……
Not everyone does not care about others, Mark!
Not everyone Mark. But yes, people seem stressed lately. Hard not too notice it.
Have I ever, Mark!
CHINA SOUTH SEA STORY on CCNEWS right now!
CHINESE OFFICALS discussing U.S.WARSHIP right now!
Thanks for the FOLLOW up
****** WOW! AS REPORTED BY CCTV NEWS: US – CHINA situation getting more and more serious – china: u.s. violating china seas, us ambassador called in to explain!
do not tell bb………….he has already heard it…………..lol
Take a nice walk Mark…plant a fruit tree in the sun.
?……….?……..are you some kind of a troll?
I’ve been to WAR already and it’s not fun……..real people die!
Really rude……Agatha……..
IT’S SAD…………..they think everything is joke!
Well, it did not pop out of there computer screen and tell them to make a trade……
there to their……
This will continue until the U.S pull out their bases and give back Asia to the Asians. Should take about 50 years.
Spx has rallied right back to the “dome” top on the daily chart that has been forming over the last year. Would need to see the spx tag and then hold 2100 to put this pattern to rest.
Agreed – Good thoughts spanky. Until the S&P can break above the dome pattern, then it still needs to prove we are not entering a new bear market.
I’m keeping the door open for the blow off top Gary expects, but so far we are in limbo and would need to see some closes above 2077 and ideally 2100 if that were the case.
Here is a good chart Brian posted recently, showing a similar Dome pattern in the DOW.
Interestingly, in the case of the DOW chart, it did take out the 17,100 level and broke out above the dome pattern, so maybe the S&P is just lagging and we will see new highs, but we need further data. The S&P is the benchmark I usually use over the DOW, NASDAQ, or Russell 2000.
Any particular reason why you primarily use the S&P, Excelsior?
I feel like it gets referenced the most in the health of the markets, most technical traders I like follow it (ie Avi Gilburt or Gary Wagner or Charles Nenner Research), and it contains many of the lunatic stocks. The Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 have their place in the health of different sectos (ie the Nasdaq is more tech oriented), the Down has many industry and blue chip stocks, and the Russell 2000 is the strength of the small caps companies), but the S&P is often the measuring stick of the market health.
Interesting. I focus almost exclusively on the DOW. It gives me better information as a rule but exactly why I could not say.
The Dow is definitely followed by many, and it may be the most widely followed….I mean there is a “Dow Theory” but not a “S&P Theory”. 🙂
Many of the different sites I visit just track different things against the S&P, or they’ll price something else in the S&P etc…. I don’t see as many asset classes compared to the DOW or Nasdaq or NYSE or Russell 2000.
I just tend to only have the bandwidth for so much, so I watch the S&P, but do cross check it’s percentage increase against the DOW to make sure it’s a trend. For the most part I block out the Nasdaq, but have friends that only watch the Nasdaq and are tech junkies. To each their own of course, and I own positions in some mutual funds and in my retirement 401K that has a little of them all.
That’s my answer Shad. You hit it on the head. I don’t have the bandwidth to follow everything either so I stick to what I know and what works. There is just no time in a day. But I always appreciate the comments from guys like yourself who do follow the other index’s and keep me tuned in.
“Bubble phase” with collapsing credit, small caps, commodities and macro data. Okay Gary. I will keep obnoxiously pounding the table for a deflationary bust and market crash since I’m still 90% cash, 5% in silver and my options strategy costs me very little if I’m wrong.
Every one else, including all the technicians and trend followers, are scared to call for a big bear market and loss of confidence in central banks.
All the experts in the media are again very negative on oil calling for $35 and some fools calling for $20. This is probably time for oil to rally just like last time.
Really? I don’t listen to them anymore but no big surprise. They will all be wrong as usual!
Ferrari (race) stock is again down over 2% for the 2nd day and not doing well at all. It flopped on the first day after a big pop. Overvalued and no dividends to support. A race to the bottom like many ipo’s.
LOL, the same “fools” who called for oil to crash when it was at $100 last summer and all you commodity guys were bullish?
Just wait, $20 could be a conservative downside target when deflation takes hold again.
Really Dan?
Well I have a chart for you then and this one proves those media pundits don’t do their homework before opening their big mouths and starting to blather. This chart is called the “5 year break-even Inflation rate”.
I have the chart settings fixed on a two year period. Hopefully it links the way I am seeing it. Anyway, the chart has just formed a picture perfect double bottom and that is meaningful because this chart tells us about inflation expectations based on the 5 year Treasury and 5 year TIPS.
What is REALLY interesting though is that if you overlay the same two year period of WTI Crude oil on the Break-even chart (linked below) you get an almost perfect correlation. And THAT is some seriously god information when one is trying to understand future oil prices.
And it tells me that if inflation expectations just bottomed and are beginning to bounce that WTI is going to follow them up with price increase, not further declines. They move together in other words. Why? Who knows exactly why…that’s just the collective mind of the market I suppose.
So now you see where my confidence comes from when I am talking about crude oil getting ready for lift off and the final bottom being posted this year. I don’t just make this stuff up like other people do! Oil is NOT going to see 30 dollars.
5 Year Break-even Inflation Rate chart — Courtesy of FRED
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/T5YIE
The drop of oil is no more than trying to push Russia to the brink and harm US shale oil sought after by Saudi. Saudi acted to increase the production 9 months ahead of oil’s decline. So it was pre-planned. This is to repeat the success of mid 1980s when the persistent low oil price broke the back of USSR. I think it is not going to work very well since the demand comes from far more different places now. The talk of reduced demand is just talk. The world demand is still increasing at 900K bbl/day. China has increased the import by 8.9% from last year and it was on top of 8% increase last year from the previous. The increased 2.5 million bbl/day from Saudi and US shale will be swallowed in 2-3 years. The production is down in US by around 500K bbl/day this year. The fact that US has started to sell strategic petroleum reserve shows that we are on the end of oil decline.
Is there anyone believing FED will raise rate today?
Not this month. Maybe next.
no
I would say next year.
IS THIS …….OPTION DAY………….