I stopped reading him about a year ago after the big crash not having materialised for as long as I had been reading him.

WE will just put him in the camp of the other 143 other expert guru

Gold can do about anything at this point and it would be believable

As, Doug Casey , just said on kitco……….WHAT ELSE IS THERE.

JUNK BONDS………lol

Casey does make a good point, he neglects to mention some dividend paying companies tho, would be interesting to hear why he isn’t interested in those, 10% not enough?

Norcini makes an interesting point concerning silver on kitco, I still see gold below $1000 and silver under $10 a possibility.

problem with the dividend paying companies, they might start eliminating the dividend without notice……………..

IF, the market rolls over then the dividend is going to change.

You might see gold dip under $1000, but, not for long, as far as silver at $10…I would really question that one.,…..but, with CRIMEX any thing is possible, but, I doubt you will be able to purchase any bullion at 10…..

I guess so, they could change the dividend.
But silver below $10 american I have no problem with, as a possibility anyway.

Silver under $10 will cause all primary silver producers to close shop. Since base metal producers are also in trouble, the by-product will also decline. A natural market should anticipate this and does not take silver under this low price. Otherwise a super spike will occur in the future.

I think Gold tracks like a currency and also a commodity of it’s own, and is still “uncorrelated” to most asset classes. This is the reason I like Gold.

Gold tracks the Yen very closely, but also has some correlation with the Euro (but only from the sense that Gold also is at times inverse the US dollar). Gold also tracks somewhat with commodity currencies like the Canadian & Australian dollars. Nothing is a perfect correlation though, and that is what keeps it interesting, and hard to predict.

I think that for currencies, the Yen is almost like a inverse USD or Euro trade, but the Yen is greatly influenced by energy prices and the commodity, industrial, and tech sectors, so the Yen is the currency that behaves most like Gold. You are correct that it is not perfect and the correlation does break down sometimes, but it is much stronger than the USD inverse Gold correlation, and thus, more useful.

Gold also can be dragged down or vaulted up with moves in Oil, or commodities in general, but it has done better over the long term than most commodities, so again it is “uncorrelated”.

Then Long Term Treasuries had a very strong correlation with Gold for years in the bull market and beginning of the bear market, but 2013 was a really weird year for Gold, and a year where bad news didn’t help gold but hurt it. Long Term treasuries set up an inverse relationship with Gold for 2014 and 2015, as they got some of the fear trade, when gold ceased to get it any more. I believe this has just started to change back recently where Gold is getting a “fear bid” again, and is now back in correlation with long term treasuries. The inverse relationship appears to have reversed back to a normal market again just recently. We’ll see how this may play out, but I now see the Gold, The Yen, and Long Term Treasuries as somewhat correlated as the safety play.

I explained it to him in full detail yesterday.

I saw his comment that the BDI has no predictive value for the stock market.

Seems that BDI represents a combination of real economic activity plus the state of the shipping industry due to things like overinvestment in cargo ships. Whereas the general stock market indices represent the sloshing around of funny money.

If this is the case, one might imagine that BDI and stock market indices could become completely uncorrelated.

That is the kicker……..HISTORIC LOW

There are no charts for where it is now…..and where it may be if it drops any further!
OH WAIT!!!!!! Maybe there is a chart we can compare it to today…………..THE STOCK MARKET!

The great AMERICAN EXPERIMENT…….rolling over……..

Dang, we’re posting at the same time. 🙂

great minds working together…………

great minds working together…………

Well, I say Frank for President. And if he’s won’t run I nominate Jerry The Long!

Great idea………I would run, but many would not like the outcome…….especially the politicians. First , congress would only be open on holidays , and only for two weeks a year. and NO LOBBIST , NO MORE FED. NO MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

You’d be dead in two weeks!

You’d be dead in two weeks!

As someone recently said we live in a nation where doctors destroy health, lawyers destroy justice, universities destroy knowledge, governments destroy freedom, the press destroys information, and our banks destroy the economy.

And this is life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness?

What a cage we live in!

Both were on top of their game………..

My 1:1 target level has been 9,000-11,000 for years and it still is.

I believe Peter will ultimately be accurate—of course, time is on his side and I’m not talking about 50 years from now either.

Well, GH, lets agree to disagree.
I say PMs since 1913 has had no affect restricting government spending.
Prior, the only dif in currency has been its convenience, which is why gold/silver ended up being most popular.
I think, once currency goes completely digital the irrelevance of what “backs” it will be obvious.
To anyone that bothers to look anyway.

Okay, it’s fine to agree to disagree. At least we’ve put the issue in sharp focus: fiat vs non-fiat.

Strange, though, that you choose 1913, as that was when the gold-backed system began to break down. I would think hard money advocates are looking at pre-1913 as the more exemplary system.

For the benefit of others who may be new to this debate, I would point out that precious metals became the principal form of money for more than just convenience. As Doug Casey points out: “Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the fourth century BC (which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then. A good form of money must be: durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and have value in and of itself.”
https://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/doug-casey-gold

Yes, I would consider pre-1913 to be a better benchmark of how hard money acted, prior to the Creature on Jekyll Island being birthed.

I use 1913 because that’s when a gold standard began breaking. the 5000 year one.
Remember, even tho gold was used in most? parts of the world, it wasn’t used everywhere.
At least not until europeans arrived. And non gold standard societies worked rather well, architectural,medical and agricultural achievments in south America being an example, this culture lasted for how many 10s of thousands of years? I know, Christian history only goes back 5k. not my fault. lol

1914-18 and 1939-45 are excellent examples of a gold standard not restricting government spending in the least. These time periods illustrate the illusion of gold backed restricting printing. At least for me.

I didnt think our discussion was about fiat or non fiat but asset backed currency.
Fiat might be another issue.

Hmm. We seem to be talking about different things. To me the issue is fiat vs non-fiat. Gold is not the end-all-be-all. It’s just that humanity converged on using gold because it was the substance that best meets the requisite characteristics of money as described by Aristotle.

If your point is that other assets than gold could back a digital currency, I wouldn’t disagree, as long as the auditing is effective to prevent fractional reserve-type games that lead to theft in the form of inflation by those in a position of control over the money system.

That in 1913 a hard-asset backed (i.e non-fiat) system broke down and turned gradually into a pure fiat system doesn’t argue against the superiority of the non-fiat system. It just means a battle was lost.

Many commenters misconstrue the recognition of the special characteristics of gold as a belief in magical powers of gold, as indicated constantly referring to those who think gold served a valuable purpose as ‘gold bugs’. Obviously, no hard-asset backed system is immune to being destroyed by corruption, and apathy and ignorance of the masses.

It would be a mistake to look for a ‘new system’ that is immune to corruption, and apathy and ignorance of the masses. I don’t believe such a system can exist. Likewise, going to the stars will solve nothing regarding the abuse of the many by the few via fiat currency.

you have to listen to the McAlvany report first ..to get the drift.

ever think he might be buying at the bottom………….

every investment has it’s cycle……….

To everything, turn, turn, turn.
There is a season, turn, turn, turn.
And a time to every purpose under heaven.
A time to build up, a time to break down.
A time to dance, a time to mourn.
A time to cast away stones.
A time to gather stones together.

it that by the yard birds………..

is that, …. ….

BYRDS……….

Yes it was the Byrds, but they borrowed from the Bible.

The lyrics, except for the title (Turn, Turn, Turn) which is repeated throughout the song, and the final verse of the song, are adapted word-for-word from Chapter 3 of the Book of Ecclesiastes, set to music and recorded in 1962.

Appropriate for sure, Excelsior!
And great explanation/example.

good one EX………..