Comments on gold and the US equity markets
Doc is with us today discussing his outlook on gold and the US markets. We focus on when a good time to pick up some PM stocks will be in 2016. We also look at the VIX (volatility index) for the markets. This could be a play early in 2016.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
You sleeping in………I posted that at 5:47 am……lol hope you are having a great Holiday…….Best.
i didnt want to post in yesterday!
With a 3 and 4 year old, its a wonderful Christmas is a given. So excited!
You should have lots of fun ….good time of life being 3 and 4 yr. especially at Christmas, in the USA….Best.
doc, good to see you stick to your guns as to market and metals view. still feel we should get a day or two of market downside before new year, with final pop into first week of jan.
The is sticking to his guns and I believe that he is correct, Harry.
doc, do you think today’s bull market in oil will be over tomorrow LOL
Harry; of course—-how many times have different gurus stated the gold and oil had found a bottom. You get one inventory draw down in oil and everyone goes crazy on us.
Uh yeah, Big Al must have picked at least 7 bottoms since 2011.
Not quite seven. But please remember the context.
Bobby. I have never said that I was the “prettiest baby in the nursery”!
The rsi for oil had been moving up and now oil is finally breaking out. The US rig count is one third of what it used to be so production must have declined substantially and we just had a big inventory drop for the week. Traders have all been negative lately. I am buying more vixy for a Jan/Feb. blowup that might last a few days.
Since April, the production has dropped more than half million barrels per day (haven’t seen the last month number). I think shale production is around 45% of all the production. This percentage will have to go down because cost of production is twice of the current oil price, even conventional oil will suffer too. When oil recovers and shale companies go bust, US may need Alberta oil again.
Thanks for the interview.
Dr. Postma, thanks for Your shared ideas about trading volatility. This is invaluable to me because in fact, I think, the VIX is the only thing You can trade without wondering too much about manipulation.
With stocks I am always wary about short squeezes that whipe out gains.
Hopefully with a bounce in January in the markets people will get complacent and the VIX gets low so that one can indeed go long.
Just as a matter of perspective: Obviously You are no market oracle, and technicals can’t always be trusted. Sometimes it just turns out to be different than expected. And right now we “may” be at a major inflection point. But… How strong of a bounce do You expect in January? What kind of downturn do You expect after the bounce in January?
If there won’t follow a downturn swiftly after the bounce how much time may it take? After all, when people take a long position and the spike in volatility doesn’t come the grind in the VIX may also grind down the option value, well it pretty sure will.
I would be grateful, as always, if You found the time to comment on that. Thanks.
Nic, I take it you mean my comment about a PM bounce in January. It’s difficult to tell how big a bounce until we move higher. I have a technical indicator that tells me only after a few days of trading. I’ll be able to mention that at that time. The odds are that gold continues its’ slow move down like it has for many months after any bounce.
What do you think bout Mr Gartman’ s call, Doc?
Gartman , said a couple of weeks ago…….”he did not have a clue”……….lol
Thank You very much. My bad. I was actually asking about the bounce in US conventional markets. Because they have much more influence on the VIX.
You boys see this? Just in time for Christmas travel. The TSA may force you through the porno scanners.
But look on the bright side, at least Michael Chertoff is getting rich, or that should be richer, off the porno scanners. You can bet Cherty’s stocking will be stuffed full of thousand dollar bills and more this xmas.
Amerika, the home of the slave and land of the sheep.
Common Eddie, not all of us!
And here’s something that will make you “real proud to be ‘Mercan” as Bushie would say.
Eddie, give it a rest man.
There’s nothing you can about all these things you bitch about so just move on to something else.
Try to enjoy something for a change, like the holidays.
why don’t you wake up….better to face the truth isn’t it..???
Everyone needs to retain some sensible optimism. Don’t you agree Mr Helm?
EBOLAN,
Thanks for the links. Hope you have a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year!!
All The Best,
JIM
ditto……always an enjoyment listening to EBOLAN
I agree Eddie, but you have to remember we are all not like that.
Comments?
I would agre that it seems that some western actions probably did play a role and that is sad!
Al:
Some western action probably did play a role?
Are you kidding?
Did you read the recent piece that added up the wars started since the end of WW II and it seems that the US started 81% of them?
It’s called “Blowback.”
When you begin to bomb the crap out of people they do one of two things, they either get out of Dodge or they pick up a gun. We act terribly surprised that Muslims are pissed. Of course they are pissed.
If the EU hasn’t destroyed themselves through their financial stupidity, perhaps being overrun by refugees will be the final nail in the coffin.
The simple solution to the refugee issue is to not make more refugees. One count shows 60 million displaced since the turn of the century. That’s exactly why I am against all our stupid and pointless wars.
I would agree with BOB…….they are pissed, and we should be pissed. That we allow the industrial military complex to continue……..jmho
time to join Occupy Peace.
Well okay.
As am I, Bob.
My comment was a bit tongue in cheek the way it was understated.
By the way you are absolutely correct with your definition of cash according to Fleck, CFA
Al- are u in reality…. ‘some western action…’
HELLO..
Great post, Ebolan.
Blows me away how Americans/westerners can call muslims things like ‘violent fanatics’ and yet turn a blind eye to the much greater violence committed in their own name and tax dollars. And then wonder why islamic religious leaders aren’t speaking out strongly enough against islamic terrorism!
G’day from Sunny Australia…
Just for some perspective Aussie PM producers with mines in Aus had a good year.
SBM was up over 14 times off its low…evn, nst, rrl.
Whether things have turned for gold in USA terms is unclear but in Aud terms gold is about 350 dollars off all time high.
Passing it on to the global pm followers and thanks Doc for your thoughts.
Seasons Greetings
all my pm stocks up today & up from the los
Now that it a good one……..who would think……
What is your opinion Bobby?
Hmmm didnt your buddy from NY, have a bet with Gartman? I wont mention his name on this site.
Not really my buddy. But, yes he tried to do that.
Bobby, it is absolutely amazing to me just how full of themselves some folks can be. Truly amazing. Remember my comment regarding how some people insist that they are, without, “the prettiest baby in the nursery”!
Al, as I have been saying for years now, gold will not begin to bottom until $1000.00 is broken. At that point we need to watch out below, could spike to $750.00 or as others have mentioned $600.00. Look for new highs in Gold in 2040.
That is a long way off, Bobby!
The VXX used to be cross listed on the TSX, until it was pulled. The volatility ETF trading on the TSX is the leveraged HVU.TO. For Canadians wanting exposure to volatility in US markets, this unit is traded on Wall St. And hedged back into $CAD.
CHARTSTER,
Thanks for the link. Unfortunately, Hillary will probably be chosen the next POTUS. However, lets not forget her past:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DSzcdCv8_s
Merry Christmas & a very prosperous New Year!!
All The Best,
JIM
How could any one not forget her past. It is really becoming comical that we continue this pretense that we are voting for anyone, other than the candidate that the cabal (IMC)wants.
She wants to bring back the Clinton prosperity.
Good one…….There never was a Clinton prosperity, ….he robbed the SStrust fund.
Something like that out of the box.
Have a wonderful Christmas!
Thanks OWL……….AND YOU HAVE A …………..MERRY CHRISTMAS……….CHEERS.
I did catch that comment, Bobby.
Good point Moscow!
That’s strange, my Canadian dollar chart was deleted. Maybe the currency didn’t like being called the loonie? Here it is again: http://schrts.co/Y2znyP
Time to go “long” inflation:
http://schrts.co/j910JI
Santa rally in gold today…………..the NY crimex must have the day off……..lol
Funny……..that is a really good one……………….MERRY CHRISTMAS.
That is a good one.
Merry Christmas
GLDX doesn’t trade much compared to GDXJ but the relative increase in volume lately has been huge. This is a good sign since it is smart money that has an appetite for the speculative explorers after a big bad bear market.
It is also bullishly up 25% from its July low while gold is DOWN a smidgen.
Thanks Matthew
Armstrong Named Forex Person of the Year
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/40913