The floor is going to give way
Rick Ackerman starts off today with comments on the US markets. He is holding his bearish stance and thinks that “the floor is going to give way” very shortly.
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That would be totally insane from the stand point of a theoretical gold backing for currency. One would have to destroy the lions share of all cash and credit to validate such a price for gold. Then again there is no official link between money(gold and silver) and the currencies therefore the market price of the metals is a total fiction.
Even coins are turning more into funny money:
How the U.S. Mint could save $39 million on nickels and dimes
By Mandi WoodruffJanuary 13, 2016 2:29 PM
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/get-ready-for-new-nickels-and-dimes-192906687.html
Some one has to produce the stuff at enough quantity, right?
too bearish…contrary indicator.
Let me give you some words of advice. When you hear analyst bring up 1929 and great depression, be assured it never, never happens.
I have heard crapola like this for over 30 years, so keep that in mind when you listen to the doom and gloomers.
More importantly, when all analysts agree, including the ones featured on Bloomberg and CNBC, watch out. The mainstream media is never bearish before a crash.
I still think there’s more downside after this bounce and THEN we’ll get a decent rally to keep the “slingshot” theory hopes alive.
Well Rick would readily admit that he has been a big bear for perhaps years. But so far, he has been right!
Rick is probably bearish for decades. I don’t remember he was bullish ever. At least since 2008 when I started to realize his existence.
I remember he was talking about bad things happen in economy and we will get into trouble. I liked his theory since I realized a lot of problems too. Then it came the crash and I am surprised that he did not turn bullish after that as some other I follow and remained bearish.
Is that a cup and handle I see on the daily chart of gold?
I think it would be awesome if we saw a cup and handle pattern appear in the ETF CAFE or Starbucks. 🙂
Joking aside….I do see what you are talking about Lewis. From Nov – present it sure looks like a cup and handle pattern. Nice.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p89171542794
I really like the implications of this chart following on earnings for banks:
Nice.
As scheduled, stock begins next rally leg and gold is dumped.
Computers hard at work.
Excelsior,
To answer your question from the prior thread. These are some of the ETFs I’m personally interested in. Again, they are oversold on the daily and the weekly charts. I’m going to pick some of these up for the pop and hold the infrastructure ETFs perhaps long or mid term. Most are just an alternative from holding cash, as I think the dollar is going to start stepping down. When gold bottoms, I’ll bail out of most to buy miners.
Country ETFs: ABE, INXX, DXELX, VNM, IDX, AFK and GAF.
Global commodities: COPX, WOOD, SLX, URA, CGW, GEX and REMX.
Short term swings: RUSL, EDC and YINN.
If you have any others you are looking at, let me know.
Thanks
Great stuff Chartster. Yeah, I didn’t know if you saw my questions from yesterday, but appreciate the response back. I just didn’t know if you were playing individual companies, their bonds, or general Emerging Markets ETFs.
Some of the emerging market ETFS I track and may dip my toe in 2016:
(IEMG), (UAEMX), (EEM), (EWK), (ESR), (ADRE), (SCHE), (DEM), (VWO) – These are all mixed bags with a heavy Asian influence, but with some S. Amercian & African companies included.
(VSS) Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Sm-Cp ETF – this one is small cap companies all over the planet so it is really a hodge podge, but I like small businesses for growth.
(VWOB) Vanguard Emerging Markets Govt Bd ETF – This fund is invested in 96 emerging market Bonds, so if you want to play the government debt monopoly game.
(EEV) and (EUM) are what I typically use to short Emerging Markets. They’ve been on a tear for the last year, and in retrospect, I should have gone in full force with the stronger dollar and cheap oil hurting their economies.
Yes for targeting short duration trades in other countries I have also used the RUSL (Bull), and RUSS (Bear) for Russian stocks, and FXP (2 x Bear) to short Chinese Markets. Thailand is looking interesting with (THD). As INSANE as it may sound, I also think there may be a few counter-trend rallies in the Greece stocks so I’m considering (GREK) for short term trades.
LPG really got me thinking when he mentioned playing some of the oil producing countries who’s economies are closely tied, and will have relief rallies when Oil does bottom, (like UAE, QAT, KSA, etc….)
As for Oil I pretty much just use (UWTI) and (DWTI) to trade long or short spot pricing because they are leveraged and small moves in the spot price move them enough to get in and get out. I know other prefer the more tame (USO).
Other Oil related ETFs: (XLE) remains my favorite, but I also trade (XOP) and (OIH), because I feel like those 3 hit most areas of the Oil patch. However there other other Oil ETFs worth mentioning: (JJE), (DBE), (DIG), (GUSH), (OIL), (UCO)
As for Individual Oil-related companies I posted a list yesterday of what I’m watching and trying to pick a handful of winners from the bunch. Let me know if you have any thoughts on (producers, oil services, pipeline, storage, etc…):
Advantage Oil & Gas, PrairieSky Royalty, Raging River, Whitecap Resources, Peyto Exp & Dev, Bonterra Energy, Crescent Point, Delphi Energy, Gibson Energy, Enbridge, Precision Drilling, Torc Oil, Trican, Encana, Conch Resources, Pinoneer Natural Resources, Imperial Oil, Weatherford Int’l, Bolder Energy, Energy Transfer Partners, Marquee, Pioneer Energy, Husky Energy, Athabasca Oil, Renegade Petro, Cequence Energy, Pan Orient Energy, Comstock Resources, Divergent Energy, and Cameron (who is currently acquiring Schlumberg ….another company I was watching).
As for rest of the Global commodites, I have some thoughts but am waiting until later in the year for those….with the exception being Uranium & Lithium companies. I’ve posted on those many times so I’ll spare everyone that today 🙂
Let me know if you have any thoughts on any of these (good, bad, ugly, brilliant, stagnant, short-term, long-term…..)
Cheers!
Thanks again Chartster as I was not familiar with (EDC), (DXELX) for leveraged Emerging market plays.
I also didn’t even think of (IDX) for Indonesia, and didn’t know there was an ETF for all of Africa (AFK), because I usually drill down to specific countries or at least separate S. Africa, from W. Africa, and N. Africa. Interesting.
Speaking of Indonesia….My girl and I have a dream of going to Bali one day and touring around the island to all the temples and little beach cities, checking out the music and art, and eating like champions.
We’re steering clear of Java though, or they may eat us like champions… (kidding)
Real good stuff, Excelsior! A lot to chew on for sure. I will check some of this stuff out. Thank you!
Yes, it was fun for me preparing that response, as it is definitely a lot to chew on!
The Fed can’t be ‘all wrong’ if secondary market rates in treasury bills are at the policy rate.
GLD:SLV filled yesterday’s big. Silver still getting ready to outperform gold. Soon.
I will love to see it, even it is the downside.
GLD daily:
Matthew,
I agree. When metals bottom, silver does the moon shot…!
Timeless:
“Nations are not ruined by one act of violence, but gradually and in an almost imperceptible manner by the depreciation of their circulating currency, through excessive quantity.” -Nicholas Copernicus, 1525
And the sheeple will forever focus on imaginary external threats.
Take heed socialists and all other collectivists:
“When misguided public opinion honors what is despicable and despises what is honorable, punishes virtue and rewards vice, encourages what is harmful and discourages what is useful, applauds falsehood and smothers truth under indifference or insult, a nation turns its back on progress and can be restored only by the terrible lessons of catastrophe.” … Frederic Bastiat
Agree
Great quote.
Perfectly applicable to today’s USA.
The common reviling of Snowden as a traitor, as a case in point. In a country that had the smallest fraction of a clue, the debate between traitor and hero could not have even taken place.
And that brings another quote to mind:
“The majority is never right. Never, I tell you! That’s one of these lies in society that no free and intelligent man can ever help rebelling against. Who are the people that make up the biggest proportion of the population — the intelligent ones or the fools? I think we can agree it’s the fools, no matter where you go in this world, it’s the fools that form the overwhelming majority.” – Henrik Ibsen (1828-1906) Norwegian playwright, theatre director, and poet
Really strange there is no talk of shorting or the best methods to do it.
I will be much more comfortable about a gold bottom being in once we hit Ricks $814.
I think Rick is right, and I think Doc is too, Im betting we get that $814 summer/fall 2016.
I intend to sit back and watch the show till then, accumulate cash, there will be no problem acquiring phyzz at that point, most shares will be bottom bouncing and 10,20 and 50 baggers will be plentiful. lol
Course, gold could go to $400 and stay there 20 years.