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We open the day with Rick Ackerman

Big Al
January 26, 2016

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As the price of oil slowly escalates the U.S. equities markets follow suite. As we record this, the DJIA is up over 200 points with Nasdaq and the S&P acting in a similar fashion.

 

Discussion
57 Comments
    Jan 26, 2016 26:08 AM

    I really like Rick, but like Gary Savage too, so when is he coming back?

      Jan 26, 2016 26:11 AM

      Agree 100%. Miss him.

        bb
        Jan 26, 2016 26:15 AM

        He does have his own site, I think I recall Bird saying he intended to frequent it.

      Jan 26, 2016 26:39 AM

      Gary left because of inappropriate comments to his work. I doubt he will be back, here is his site where he has some good free stuff…..
      http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/

    Jan 26, 2016 26:10 AM

    My day is right as rain when I hear Rick’s view. This man has been right for years now. Listen to him and make money. True wisdom.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:11 AM

    ****** THIS RALLY IN THE DOW IS ONLY UP BECAUSE OF THE RALLY IN OIL STOCKS AND TPPT ******
    This wont last…….as the Pain will continue!
    Stay tuned!

    Jan 26, 2016 26:16 AM

    It looks like GARY called the low in the miners…..

      Jan 26, 2016 26:28 AM

      Yes,he was alone to pick this bottom (hoping it will last…)
      The rest of the world was bearish because of the huge H&S chart of Miners (rambus-plunger-Byrne etc..)

        Jan 26, 2016 26:22 PM

        It still remains to be seen in the Spring/Summer whether the lows are in, or whether PMs and the related miners have one last down-leg left.

        There are a number of Gold stocks that did bottom (so far) in 2013, so that call would have needed to be made on those individual quality stocks over 2 years ago.

        When looking at the mining ETFs GDX and GDXJ the both just put in a new All-time Lows on January 19th, and I don’t remember Gary mentioning that day was the bottom.

          Jan 26, 2016 26:24 PM

          In fairness I was not on Gary’s website on the 19th or 20th so he may have mentioned that date as the short term bottom in GDX or GDXJ. I was just basing in on the comments he left on Doc’s blog that day and on the front and back side I couldn’t find any comments for him on the KER.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:34 PM

            I went to Gary’s website and do see where on Jan 22nd he mentioned it was putting in a swing on the weekly chart, and noted the new all time lows had been hit.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:41 PM

            It was actually posted on Jan 25th.

          Jan 26, 2016 26:52 PM

          Jordan Roy-Byrne mentioned on right afterwards on the 20th that GDXJ and GDX would bounce for the short-term, but warned not to get overly excited.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:18 AM

    AEM, my pet miner is finally awake and shows relative strength. I’ve owned this stock for years and it is the best in breed.

    bb
    Jan 26, 2016 26:46 AM

    Salinas believes that the salvaging all debt and derivatives might require a gold price as high as between $22,000 and $50,000 per ounce. Silver Doc

    Sounds like Mr Price is thinking like Mr Sinclair.

    Should these numbers have anything to do with reality the absolute only thing anyone would need to know about a PM miner would be is to own them.

    Debt,corrupt management, lousy district, strikes, even government take over wouldnt matter lol

      Jan 26, 2016 26:15 AM

      Sounds like Salinas read my post the other day (no, I’m not serious):

      On January 23, 2016 at 4:17 pm,
      Matthew says:

      It’s not as outlandish as it appears. For example, the 263 million ounces of gold held by the U.S. had to be valued at about $475 per ounce in order to match the value of foreign held U.S. debt in Q1, 1980. Gold spiked to nearly twice that level that year. Today, gold would have to trade at about $23,000 per ounce in order to match the value of foreign held U.S. debt. A repeat of the overshoot in 1980 would put gold at close to $40,000 per ounce.

        bb
        Jan 26, 2016 26:34 AM

        Yup Mathew, dividing the # of onces to currency units produces huge #s.
        They are not mentioning other possibilities tho, they like gold.
        A wave of debt forgiveness would have an impact for example, they also dont count alot of gold, there is nothing saying there is alot more around than what they know about.

        Their figuring is correct or close enough, Im just sayin, thats just one way of looking at it.

        However it goes, a % in physical is a good idea, at least I think so, nothing saying thats correct tho. There could be much wiser things to own.

          bb
          Jan 26, 2016 26:36 AM

          oops, “there is nothing saying there is Not alot more around than they know about”

          Jan 26, 2016 26:48 AM

          There’s lots of gold around but I doubt that the U.S. has the 8,133 tonnes that it claims it does. That’s what important since it is the U.S. that issues the debt that gold is measured/priced in.

            bb
            Jan 26, 2016 26:55 AM

            Thats what many people are gambling on, that they dont have it, but here are other people that feel they have much more than 8k tons.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:09 AM

            I am actually not gambling on either scenario. I think they will stick with the old claim that they have 8,133 tonnes. If they do, then gold is very cheap relative to most paper assets.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:20 PM

            Matthew I held my nose today and bought more Americas Silver Corp to bring my cost basis down. I realize that they are operating at a loss because they need Silver above $16.50 to turn a profit, but they’ve been punished pretty hard. Maybe I’m too optimistic though. :-}

            Jan 26, 2016 26:40 PM

            I was a buyer today too (and yesterday, and Friday, and…). I’m showing 3.11 million shares traded today. 😮

            Jan 26, 2016 26:01 PM

            Yeup. Much larger volume spike today. Some larger investor is taking a position.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:24 PM

            I’d like to know who was selling. Maybe Tocqueville…

            Jan 26, 2016 26:50 PM

            I’m not sure if this table with post correctly but there were only 96 trades today to make up that 3,110,119 shares traded.

            Date Open High Low Close Volume Chg % Chg Adj. Close Trade Val # Trades
            01/26/2016 0.065 0.065 0.06 0.065 3,110,119 0.005 8.33% 0.065 190.5k 96

            Jan 26, 2016 26:55 PM

            OK – based on the last 25 trades it was almost always the following seller 009:

            The Seller 009 is:

            BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc
            49th Floor, 1 First Canadian Pl
            Toronto, ON M5X1H3

            BMO Nesbitt Burns is a part of BMO Financial Group. It’s a full-service investment firm with approximately 1,300 Investment Advisors at 70 branches across Canada.

            Last 25 Trades
            Time Price Shares Change Exch/Mkt Buyer Seller
            01/26/2016 3:59 PM EST 0.065 2,000 0.01 TSX 002 001
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 10,000 0.00 TSX 099 001
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 12,000 0.00 TSX 099 099
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 300,000 0.00 TSX 007 009
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 600,000 0.00 TSX 002 009
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 468,000 0.00 TSX 002 009
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 32,000 0.00 TSX 002 009
            01/26/2016 3:25 PM EST 0.06 3,000 0.00 TSX 079 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 2,000 0.00 TSX 079 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 5,000 0.00 TSX 079 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 5,000 0.00 TSX 079 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 5,000 0.00 TSX 079 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 20,000 0.00 TSX 007 009
            01/26/2016 3:12 PM EST 0.06 100,000 0.00 TSX 007 009
            01/26/2016 3:10 PM EST 0.06 7,000 0.00 TSX 002 009
            01/26/2016 3:10 PM EST 0.06 6,000 0.00 TSX 002 009
            01/26/2016 3:10 PM EST 0.06 4,000 0.00 TSX 002 099
            01/26/2016 3:10 PM EST 0.06 6,000 0.00 TSX 007 099
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST 0.06 40,000 0.00 TSX 007 001
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST 0.06 4,000 0.00 TSX 007 009
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST 0.06 10,000 0.00 TSX 085 009
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST E 0.06 35 0.00 TSX 014 083
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST E 0.06 984 0.00 TSX 085 083
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST 0.06 84,000 0.00 TSX 085 009
            01/26/2016 3:09 PM EST 0.06 5,000 0.00 TSX 001 009

            Jan 26, 2016 26:08 PM

            As for the buyer looks like different trades from different platforms:

            Buyer 002 RBC Capital Markets
            Buyer 007 TD Securities
            Buyer 079 CIBC World Mkts
            Buyer 085 Scotia Capital

            Jan 26, 2016 26:56 PM

            Interesting, thanks for checking, Shad. I wonder if Tocqueville still has over 32.5 M shares.

            Jan 26, 2016 26:11 PM

            thanks for the post……..EX…..

            Jan 27, 2016 27:53 AM

            Yeah, I can’t see the bottom 45% of the holdings in the Tocqueville Gold fund:

            Top Holdings of Tocqueville Gold fund
            as of 12/31/2015

            % of Total Assets
            Physical Gold 15.08%
            Detour Gold Corp. 6.68%
            Franco-Nevada Corp. 6.12%
            Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. 6.04%
            Randgold Resources Ltd. – ADR 4.96%
            Goldcorp, Inc. 3.69%
            Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd. 3.65%
            Torex Gold Resources, Inc. 3.56%
            Eldorado Gold Corp. 3.25%
            SEMAFO, Inc. 3.03%

            Jan 27, 2016 27:17 AM

            This is from Morningstar:

            Tocqueville Asset Management L.P. 31,230,929

            Tocqueville Finance 1,339,400

            Tocqueville Gold 26,190,819

            http://investors.morningstar.com/ownership/shareholders-major.html?t=SPM&region=can&culture=en-US&ownerCountry=USA

            Jan 27, 2016 27:39 AM

            Thanks for that and it is good to see they still have the 26,190,819 shares.

            It also reminded me that SILJ has a small allocation to Americas Silver as well.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:47 AM

    The Shanghai index just double bottomed. The BDI appears to be putting in a bottom. Most of the emerging markets bottomed last week. Copper, steel, timber and uranium bottomed last week. I doubt copper is a dead cat bounce. It’s bottomed.

    The USD looks like it’s about to start heading down. And the NYSE is about to plummet. It looks like oil and gold and gold miners drop with the stock market.

    In essence, the prettiest pig in the barnyard (US stocks) has lost it’s lipstick.

      Jan 26, 2016 26:05 AM

      China may head a lot lower still.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:53 AM

    Chartster…little early for a bottom in Shanghai don’t think? I don’t see it.

      Jan 26, 2016 26:55 AM

      Maybe, but it just double bottomed. And other EMs have bottomed as well.

        Jan 26, 2016 26:58 AM

        I think the USD is the key driver in the whole equation. And I do believe it’s going to start heading south. The folks thinking 1.20 are not going to see it. IMO anyhoo.

    bb
    Jan 26, 2016 26:53 AM

    There are still “select” stocks that are profitable, guns, sin stocks, tobacco is gonna get huge for example.
    Just a matter of getting in the right areas no?

    Also, shorting “select” stocks has been and should continue to be profitable I would think, Rick had some suggestions the other day.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:03 AM

    I think Chris Temple hit the nail on the head by saying it’s a stock pickers market and there will be good stocks to pickup during the downturn.

    bb
    Jan 26, 2016 26:11 AM

    Dont get me wrong Chartster, I like Chris and he is right, but when is it ever not a “stock pickers” market?
    Kind of a cliche I would think, like “rifle approach”.

    If a person doesnt have the common sense/aptitude to check a financial page and inform themselves where they are going to put their money, they really shouldnt be in the market for anything other than passing time/entertainment.

    For profit they would be much wiser to ask Chris to invest for them.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:21 AM

    The shotgun approach worked in 2011 with QE. But we are seeing that game is now over…

    Jan 26, 2016 26:22 AM

    Well, 2009 to 2013 it worked.

      bb
      Jan 26, 2016 26:40 AM

      Sure, and buying the entire kitco list will make a person wealthy if gold goes up.
      Right now, the profits are minimal, when gold turns, we are going to be hitting 10,20,50,100 baggers.
      A person will only need to purchase companies that didnt go broke. lol

      I wait for the raging bull. lol

        Jan 26, 2016 26:44 AM

        bb,
        We ..all…..are waiting for that raging bull..! And “if” the base metals are bottoming now, we won’t be waiting too much longer…!! We just got to get through the washout.

    Jan 26, 2016 26:26 AM

    Gooberment employees in DC are hard to get ahold of? Hey! I resemble that remark Rick! I work in a call center for Uncle Sam and the place is woefully understaffed. The phones ring off the hook all the time and people just stay pissed off at us. It’s a mess!

    Jan 26, 2016 26:31 PM

    Shanghai index down over 4% right now………..Chartster I thought that you said the Shanghai had double bottomed! Sorry, these markets still have a long ways to go and its down!

    Jan 27, 2016 27:51 AM

    Shad/matthew

    Could you both kindly put up the companies that you believe bottomed in 2013. I’m referring to the mining companies example Crj. I would greatly appreciate it.

      Jan 27, 2016 27:36 AM

      I don’t have an exhaustive list of all the gold companies that bottomed in 2013, but I can name off some of the stocks I own, have traded, or follow closely that put in their lows over 2 years ago. (this is not a guarantee that they won’t put in new lows in 2016 if PM take a nose-dive down to lower levels later this year):

      Claude, Richmont, Kirkland Lake, Lake Shore Gold, Guyana Goldfields, Klondex, OceanaGold, Centerra Gold, Detour Gold, Pretium Resources, Torex Gold, Northern Star Resources, and Franco Nevada are names of some of the quality companies that put in their lows in 2013.

      This is why I disagree so much with the statements some have made about just buy everything on Kitco. Most of the bigger more popular names in the gold space have continued to tank in 2013, 2014, and 2105 which would have been bad for “buy and hold” value investors. This is why it is a stock pickers market and why being selective is key.

      Lastly, there is no promise that the companies listed above will continue to be the leaders in the sector, because some of the other companies that are more beaten down, may have new projects, M&A, bring their costs down, currency fluctuations etc… However all the companies listed above are quality and have been doing the right activity to buck the down trend the last 2 years to they are fairly solid.

        Jan 27, 2016 27:57 AM

        I would also add, that I do short-term trades on many more stocks that did not bottom in 2013, to play the counter-trend rallies…..get in and get out.

        Glenfidish, I remember you mentioning you were not as interested in doing the trades, and were looking for value plays where you could buy low and hold. Once the final leg down is done in PMs in 2016 then, it is possible that other companies that have fallen harder to the downside, may likewise grow faster to the upside.

        Once everything has bottomed, then all the balance-sheets and debt loads will need to be reviewed, the All In Sustaining Cost per ounce is a key metric I’m following, and free cash flow is very important.

        Cheers!

          Jan 27, 2016 27:01 AM

          Then there are the near term producers or advanced explorers that may be prime takeover candidates, and they don’t have a production profile or typically anything but debt on their books, but there are a few gems out there that will be purchased and may offer more upside than any of their peers or even the producers. They of course, carry the highest risk though and most of them are skating on thin ice at present.

      Jan 27, 2016 27:28 AM

      KAM and CEM are two more. Now it’s time for the silvers and riskier golds to catch up to the Claudes of the sector.

      It’s risky and not for everyone but I am now more interested in the best of the worst than the best of the best.

      Claude and those like it now rate a “fade” in my book (carefully).

      http://schrts.co/1FsPXJ

        Jan 27, 2016 27:36 AM

        So, one easy and well diversified approach would be to sell CRJ to buy ZJG (or, for you U.S. people, sell CLGRF to buy GDXJ) and wait for the rest of the sector to catch up. Then you can go back into the quality leaders.

        CRJ is up 1,000% vs ZJG in two years:

        http://schrts.co/9eXMCD

    Jan 27, 2016 27:52 AM

    Shad and Matthew!

    FANTASTIC WORK AND THANKS A BUNCH. I will keep everything in mind.