Investors continue to feel safe in gold and the US markets
We kick off today early with Chris Temple. With sell offs in Asian markets the US markets are holding their own. Even with the continued pessimism from major money managers warning about the markets investors are not listening. Finally gold continues to garner a buy. There are many more signs that point to a breakout to the upside rather than a breakdown.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
There are some new polls that have the “Leave” option winning by nearly 10%.
In my opinion, Gold would benefit from a “Leave” vote, as a safe haven in uncertain times.
By the way, my friends from England are voting “Stay”
Gold will do well either way. If they vote to stay, the euro will break out of its 18 month base to the upside which would result in the dollar breaking down from its 18 month top.
Sadly, the charts suggest that the UK will stay.
The chart? Which chart is that?
The euro and dollar charts – the weekly charts in particular.
Those charts do not know how people will vote.
We need to see the EKG chart. The brain dead will vote to stay.
You are right, Mr. Barzini.
The sheeple will do as they are told and vote to stay. The exit loses.
I didn’t know UK voters were looking at currency charts to determine how they were going to vote (?)
I give you an example of something to bear in mind here Chris & Matthew which is along similar lines.
The pro-EU media has been making much in recent weeks that most money placed at UK betting shops & betting websites on whether the UK votes to leave or stay is in favour of staying in the EU.
We have lots of newspaper stories pointing at how much money has been bet on staying in as evidence of how Brits will vote.
However, it came out a few days ago – and was hardly reported at all – that whilst most money has been bet on a stay in vote the reality is that this is due to a handful of very large bets placed by people unknown.
The overwhelming number of individual bets – i.e. ordinary people betting a fiver here and a tenner there – are on the vote being a leave vote.
So it looks like some people are trying to influence the voting by placing large sums of money to give the impression that most people are betting on a stay vote. When, in truth, most people betting are betting on a leave vote.
Chris and Bob: Do really have that much faith in the process? The charts may very well indicate the outcome because they reflect the actions of those who move the biggest money – money that has the greatest impact on the looks of the charts. An important part of that big money might be very confident about the outcome of the vote for reasons that have nothing to do with clairvoyance.
Matthew, I don’t believe it is possible for any charts to have any ideal what 60 million individuals are going to do in a vote.
You remind me of those blokes in the 1960s who made charts and concluded that the Vietnam war would be over by… 1964.
Bob: I’ve not concluded anything. I said that the charts “seem to suggest…”
Having said that, I cannot tell you how many times I’ve seen reversals precisely where you’d expect them technically only to have some news event be given all the credit.
There is far more order than most will ever know.
Hopefully, the brain dead will stay in and watch soap operas instead of voting.
I think if the UK does BEXIT then gold and silver will soar and stock markets will tank. Oddly, the USD will also go up at the same time as the Pound and the Euro collapses.
I will be interested in Chris’s thoughts. What do you think Bob McCleary?
US$, Treasuries will win big. Gold will win at least modestly. Yen may also benefit. US stocks that have decent yields and otherwise determined to be good defensive plays may also do well. Don’t forget that if those dominoes start to follow w/ a BREXIT vote, that just compromised the world'[s biggest economic bloc in a way that may be irreversible.
Oh…and can’t forget…Russia will win BIG by a fragmenting Europe.
Thanks Chris.
Stories in the UK media today that if we vote to leave the EU next week that Putin will be having tea in Paris within 24 hours and that large parts of the EU will be under Russian control. Loads of crazy talk now.
However, not so crazy IMPO, I think that a British BREXIT vote will send the EU into melt-down with big demands from the Danes, Dutch and Spanish for votes of their own. There would have to be fundamental re-drawing of what the EU is just to hold it together.
I think it would be a blood-bath in conventional stocks if there is a BREXIT vote.
Much of Europe already wants to re-engage with Russia, and has been at odds with the US and neocon-directed estrangement first caused and then carried out by the E.U., NGO’s that destabilized Ukraine, etc. Italy, Austria and Hungary especially have been in open revolt against the sanctions, to name 3
More and more people I speak with fear that there is some US-led Neo-Con plot to turn Europe into another Syria/Iraq so that the arms companies can make huge profits out of 500 million people in a massive European civil war.
Yes, it sounds crazy but, you know what, it no longer sounds as crazy as it sounded a few months ago.
Bob/Brian I agree and it’s beginning to look as though Brexit’s on a charge. With James Bamford of JCB wanting to quit and James Dyson of Dysons estimating that an exit equates to an annual windfall of £18.5 billion Cameron’s beginning to crumble. As today’s headline in the Express says our PM is now resorting to fear tactics of the grubbiest kind, telling pensioners that they stand to lose a big chunk of their pensions.
All that said there are some surprising people wanting to stay. A friend of mine whom I assumed would be the first to brexit got quite upset when I said I was assuming he’d be out. Interestingly you could actually hear the fear in his voice when he said he didn’t want to fall out with me.
I have lots of middle class, left of centre, Guardian reading baby boomers who intend to vote to stay. They got very shirty with me a few weeks ago when I dared mention voting to leave but, hey, they are not being directly affected by the negatives of the EU.
Everyone else I know is voting to LEAVE though. I am.
I fear that we will stay in. I am hoping that, as British people are rather polite and do not wish to be seen as racist, that most people are keeping quiet about voting to LEAVE.
My West Wales town is being swamped with migrants.
I am a lifelong liberal with one foot in the liberal party and one foot in the labour party but, boy, I am seeing the islamification of my country all around me. It is shocking. It is as if almost overnight, I woke up one morning and have found myself living in a Middle Eastern country with women walking one step behind their husbands, women covered head to toe in black sheets, women in their 20s dressed head to toe in black sheets walking a couple of steps behind men clearly in their 70s.
When I think of all the things that the UK fought for and pioneered – the abolishment of slavery, equal rights for women, equal rights for gay people, equal rights for pay, maternity leave, etc, etc, and then I see this barbaric, medieval, intolerant religion being allowed to take over more and more of the UK I am just horrified.
We have become tolerant of the intolerant in the UK. I think Merkel intends to destroy the British by swamping the UK with millions and milions of muslims. I am not a happy bunny.
Thanks for your personal experiences and commentary about the UK. I really appreciate having this powerful information, over any MSM publication (US, UK< or otherwise)
This thread is mostly posted to by BREXIT Leave voters but if it is anything like the opinion of most British people then the EU is about to go into melt-down.
Personally, I think they will fix the result for us to stay in. Just use the postal votes as an excuse to rig things.
Could be, Bob — and we know the history of the E.U. plutocrats that they don’t like to let democratic voting get in the way of their program
Well, the recent Austrian vote was very suspicious.
The right-wing anti migrant party was leading in the election results until the postal vote was counted. To everyone’s surprise the postal vote then swung the election back to the current ruling party.
This was a surprise as, traditionally, postal votes are done by older voters and older voters are traditionally more conservative, more right-wing and, according to polls, more against the mass immigration into Europe.
So, on that level, the vote looks suspicious. I note that the result is now being legally challenged.
Look at what was done last week in the UK – the deadline for voting registration passed and then, out of the blue, we were told that the voting registration servers went down so they kept them open for a further 48 hours.
In that time we are told about another 600,000 people registered to vote – during those extra 48 hours the UK media heavily lobbied the 18-25 year age group to register to vote and, surprise surprise, apparently most of those who subsequently registered were in that age group.
It is thought that most young people are pro the EU. (Heck, I have met kids in the UK with great exam results from school who truly believe that the Germans won WW2.).
So the government and EU bigwigs are doing everything they can to try and bias the vote in their favour already.
I think, whatever the outcome, that there will be a huge split in the UK going forward now.
If we stay in by a small percentage then I think there will be lots of anger and resentment going forward. I am hoping, as I said above, that there is a huge 10% or more win for the BREXIT camp and the world is shocked by how strongly British people wish to leave.
For hose who’ve not heard this before re Brexit…
MATTHEW
Any thoughts on the PM miner to metal relationship the past couple days?
Gold and silver going up, but the Miners not really participting?
My thought: Individual PM stocks will move LESS in sync; based on TA and fundamentals (e.g., still results, earnings, etc). We may be seeing the next phase of the bull, where not all boats rise with the tide
Brian
should be DRILL results, earnings, etc
We’re seeing just a bullish consolidation in my opinion. The positives far outweigh the negatives but it might be another week or a little more before the next leg higher really gets going.
Aside from a few high-flyers that are cyclically out of sync with the majority and in need of a break, I think it will be a broad-based move.
The wall of worry is very much intact as is evidenced, in part, by Sprott’s PSLV trading flat to down today and at a discount to NAV.
Thanks. Makes sense. I’m adding bits&bobs on “Stink Bid” pullbacks.
Speaking of Sprott, here’s something worthwhile that I just stumbled upon:
http://www.sprottetfs.com/documents/pdfs/buz-ff-20160606.pdf
Excellent find , Matthew.
It really appeals to the Fundamental Analysi side of my brain. An example:
“During the recent gold bear market, gold companies have reduced their operating costs and capital expenditures. All-in sustaining cash costs have declined by 26%, from $1,265 per oz. in Q3 2012 to $936 per oz. in Q4 in 2015.”
Hi Mathew:
I found that chart of GRG.V you posted last week most interesting.You posted that you saw the divergence also in Impact Silver and Pure Gold last year. I was wondering how long the stocks stayed in this divergence.Once the histogram crossed the o line did they assume a more normal pattern.And would you expect the same with GRG?
thanks-jk
Hi John:
Pure Gold shareholders have enjoyed the same divergence for a month now. If the metals continue higher, I expect the GRG and PGM divergences to end with the MACD turning up to join the price action. They could also end with the MACD and price going sideways until the moving averages catch up (then I would expect both to move higher).
I wish I could show you how Claude had the same divergences repeatedly during its long rise but my charts disappeared the other day when the SSRI takeover became final.
Here’s IPT:
Thank-you Mathew.-jk
Interesting stats Matthew, thanks.
This is the type of constant cr*p that Brits are getting non-stop from the media:
‘Brexit will spell END of EU and bring ‘DESTRUCTION of Western civilisation’, says eurocrat’
Of course, the EU flooding Western Europe with several million people whose culture is completely alien to Western civilisation, and whose religious book tells them to kill all non-believers, is not going to be harmful in any way to Western Civilisation.
The Qur’an tells muslims to kill non-believers, only in times of war, if muslims are provoked then we can fight back. We are not allowed to provoke them. If they leave islam and then start to attack muslims then yes we are allowed to fight them, and fighting brings killing.
Most people will now quote surah 9:5 where the qur’an says “but when the forbidden months are past, then fight and slay the Pagans wherever ye find them, and seize them, beleaguer them, and lie in wait for them in every stratagem (of war); but if they repent, and establish regular prayers and practice regular charity, then open the way for them: for Allah is oft-forgiving, Most merciful.” The Holy Quran, Chapter 9, Verse 5
Firstly, this verse is talking about the treaty between the muslims and the pagans of mecca, who used to kill the muslims who at the time this verse had been revealed, were not retaliating.
Then the previous verse, Allah tells the muslims to wait 4 months to see if they change things and then in verse 5 Allah tells them to fight them. The chapter also tells us however, that if they surrender then we should accept it and if someone from them ( the disbelievers ) seeks protection we should protect them, in times of war especially.
The Quran explicitly forbids killing. Whosoever kills a human being for Murder or Creating Mischief in the Land, it is as if he had killed the whole of Human Kind and whoso saved the life of one as if he has saved the life of all Mankind
Thanks for that B. Happy Ramadan!!
Saw the “kill all non believers” Bob.
I didnt recall this from reading it, I read it years ago and remembered the religion allowed to defend oneself, but I never remembered anything like kill all non believers simply because they were another religion.
This is what a quick google search found, I have no intention of reading the koran again for more specifics. lol
My point of course is this rumour of “kill the infidel or non believers” is propoganda designed to divide people.
Nothing more.
Since the capital requirements of earning a decent income from savings is inversely proportional to the interest rate one might as well go for the gold and or silver in hand option.
Bob – GREAT that you feel so passionately about what’s going on in the UK. I do too. I’m writing all over the place including to the whimpish Lambeth Palace.
I think I’ve ‘converted’ one old friend who kept on banging on about his fear of the Nazis and hence the need to stay in a united Europe (he was brought up as a child in the Channel Isles during the war). I pointed out to him (after reading ‘The Creature from Jekyll Island) that even back then it was the Nazis’ very intention to form a United Europe!
For those who can see it we’re being taken over by stealth and fear. Not so stealthy in many instances with some immigrants strutting about like they already own the country.
The only positive, should we be kept in is that Europe stands to implode regardless. A
Implode it will. !!!
All that optimism was a mirage. You were selling – I was not buying.
What are your thoughts about the probable results of the Brexit vote.Its repercussions for markets and metals world-wide, as well as what will happen in the coming months with Puerto Rico and the Illinois debt issues?
Maybe topics for future shows?
Keep up the good work.