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Wednesday and The Doctor is In

Big Al
July 20, 2016

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Discussion
13 Comments
    Jul 20, 2016 20:42 AM

    I’m thinking that the momentum line in the ADX on th weekly chart is set for stage 17 in the Swiss alps, and we are only coming off the starting line. But we are technical prisoners on a bicycle until we actually get there. The 13-week EMA is an important touch point before moving higher. The technical picture is unspoiled, except the yobs at the roadside are as irritating as ever.

    http://schrts.co/BG8NBJ

    Google ‘tour de France 2016 stage 17 GoPro’

    CFS
    Jul 20, 2016 20:49 AM

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-20/worlds-central-banks-are-making-big-mistake

    The hole that they are digging pretty soon will be so deep that they won’t be able to toss the dirt out anymore, but suffer a wall collapse instead.

    Jul 20, 2016 20:56 AM

    All:
    This posting is on 321Gold. A dollar and gold bull. Well worth listening to: http://play.pointacross.com/Player.aspx?gmid=866sfb2zve21

      CFS
      Jul 20, 2016 20:36 PM

      It is most interesting, however, one flaw in Brent Johnson’s theory is the ability of the Fed to change currency rates.
      Johnson assumes that increased demand for dollars will drive up the price of the dollar.

      Normally that would be true.
      However, we have already seen the Fed, a few years ago, appear to give Belgium a large amount of dollars in order to devalue the dollar. The exact mechanics are not yet known.
      It is clear that collusion between the Central Banks can adjust exchange rates.
      Yes there will be demand for dollars, but will the Central Banks adjust the currency behind the scenes?

      Jul 20, 2016 20:14 PM

      A very good listen, thanks for posting.

    Jul 20, 2016 20:03 PM

    Hi Doc,
    I know you have mentioned the momentu and strength indicators as telling that gold and miners would move down, but can you tell me what in particular was most revealing (macd? Adx?) Aand on what timeline (daily?).
    Also, are you still thinking that GDX might come back to around 23? And what inthe chart suggests it.
    Yesterday and today do feel different in the miners. They were going down yesterday in spite of slight move up. Also, they continue to sell down today even as the metal leveled out. Different behavior now, but dont know what was the best forecast tool for this. Thanks as always

    Jul 20, 2016 20:36 PM

    One thing I’ve been completely wrong about is the spread trade between the near month and the longest dated futures in gold prices. There is a strong forward skew in the gold market, which is leading the demand along the futures chain, widening spreads and steepening contango. This is not fundamentally what you would call a bearish picture.

    http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Q16_Z21.E&v=d12&t=l&a=0&w=1

      Jul 20, 2016 20:41 PM

      I thought spreads would narrow, and show backwardation, but we’re a long ways off. Spreads have widened instead. That means the peak is along the futures chain.

    Jul 20, 2016 20:40 PM

    Al, since most politicians are lawyers, most are slithering snakes.

    Jul 20, 2016 20:18 PM

    Al, respectfully, when you agree or disagree with someone shouldn’t there be a stronger basis than gut feeling when going up against someone who is an excellent technician? Fundamentals play out over years and decades…technicals are useful for making an income in a measured way.

    cmc
    Jul 20, 2016 20:47 PM

    I’ve been holding and adding to my short position on the junior miners for about a month, which has NOT been fun, but now they are starting to pay me back. Will be using to the proceeds to buy into the miners as they fall. I trust the good doc will be declaring victory for another great call!