Are we starting to see a liquidity trap in the markets
doc today discusses the falling of gold, silver, bonds and US equities. the concern is that we continue to see selling across the board and topic of a liquidity trap should be back on investors minds.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Docfan; I really don’t try to make recommendations on stocks but I’ll tell you a few of the ones I’m going to hold to and add to—-AXU, EXK, OSK, DNA and BGM. I hold some others as well. I’ve owned CDE and SSRI in the past and will purchase them again going forward. Another one I’ll puchase again will be FF.V. No recommendations but just some of my thoughts.
Understood Doc, -Not investment advice. Just like to hear you opinion, of course. Thanks very much for the reply!!! 🙂
Doc,
Did you mean DNA,Dalradian? and if so do you have any information on Dalradians silver/Gold land positions in Norway?
It would be nice to have Brent Cook/Joe Mazumdar to comment on the Norway properties next timethey visit KER.
Dalradian holds a dominant land position, totaling approximately 3,115 km2, in the historic Kongsberg Silver District, located approximately 70 km southwest of the capital Oslo along the western margin of the Oslo rift structure. The company’s concessions also include a further 2,777 km2 over the fault-offset continuation of the same geology in the Bamble area. The Kongsberg Silver District comprises over 80 former underground mines that produced more than 40 million ounces of silver between 1623 and 1958, with average grades reported in the early 1950s of 356 g/t silver. Despite a long history of production, little or no modern exploration has been carried out over the Kongsberg District prior to Dalradian acquiring the concessions. Approximately 32 precious metal occurrences are located on Dalradian concessions in the Kongsberg Silver District, according to the Norwegian government database.
The northern concessions cover almost the entire Norwegian portion of three Paleoproterozoic greenstone belts (Pasvik – 387.5 km2, Karasjok – 3,819 km2 and Kautokeino – 5,765 km2), as well as a Paleoproterozoic basement window (Rombak – 1,449 km2), that extend across the border into Finland, Sweden and Russia. In these neighbouring countries, these greenstone belts host a number of significant gold and base metal discoveries, including Agnico-Eagle’s producing Kittila gold mine in Finland. The Norwegian portion of these belts are remarkably underexplored despite good infrastructure, large population centres, thin forest cover and both bedrock and alluvial gold occurrences.
I like the management team
I like their management team as well.
Great recent call on Gold (took out $1308, $1300, and $1275 today) and on the US dollar moving up (it’s been up $.35-$.45 most of the day – currently at $96.11).
Well done sir.
Gold Miners Break Down, Searching For Support
by @Goldfinger on October 4, 2016
“Gold is down ~$30/oz and the gold miners as represented by the GDX are taking a beating to the tune of nearly 7%. Investors are beginning to ask themselves some important questions such as, where is the next area of support and when will it be time to buy?”
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-miners-break-down-searching-for-support
Red Cloud Klondike Strike 4th Annual Fall Mining Showcase
Toronto, Ontario–(Newsfile Corp. – October 4, 2016) –
Red Cloud Klondike Strike Inc. is pleased to announce it is hosting its 4th Annual Fall Mining Showcase on Thursday, October 6, 2016.
This event will feature presentations by the following select companies:
Ascot Resources Ltd.
Aston Bay Holdings Ltd.
AuRico Metals Inc.
Austral Gold Ltd.
Brixton Metals Corp.
eCobalt Solutions Inc.
Excellon Resources Inc.
GoldQuest Mining Corp.
IDM Mining Ltd.
Integra Gold Corp.
Monarques Gold Corp.
Red Pine Exploration Inc.
Richmont Mines Inc.
Savary Gold Corp.
Royal Nickel Corporation
Sierra Metals Inc.
Skeena Resources Ltd.
Stornoway Diamond Corp.
Unigold Inc.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/red-cloud-klondike-strike-4th-annual-fall-mining-showcase
SIRIOS: First Drilling Results of Summer 2016 at CHEECHOO
MONTREAL, QUEBEC–(Marketwired – Oct. 4, 2016)
Bob Moriarty: I Am Ready To Buy Silver At $16
by Ceo Technician | posted in: Bob Moriarty, Gold, Silver
“One month ago Bob Moriarty, Founder & Editor of 321gold, stated in no uncertain terms that we were in for a deeper correction in the precious metals space before we would reach a monumental buying opportunity. We ended up with a messy trading range in gold and the gold miners during the month of September. However, October has gotten off to an ugly start for precious metals and it looks like Moriarty is going to get his deeper correction after all.”
“Given the tumultuous market action we thought it was a good time to get Bob on the phone again; we managed to connect with Bob for a quick update as to what he’s seeing out there and how deep he expects this correction to be. As always Bob was blunt and to the point….”
http://energyandgold.com/2016/10/04/bob-moriarty-i-am-ready-to-buy-silver-at-16/
I believe $15.50 is a good possibility.
Your insights are always appreciated Doc. Thanks!
Silver Bear Resources Announces Updated Mine Plan and Feasibility Study for Mangazeisky Silver Project, Yakutia, Russia
TORONTO, ONTARIO–(Oct. 4, 2016)
Silver Bear Resources Inc. (SBR) (SVBRF) is pleased to announce a 66% increase in pre-tax NPV to US$132.6 million for the Vertikalny Central deposit of its Mangazeisky Silver Project in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia following the results of an updated National Instrument 43-101 feasibility study. The NI 43-101 Updated Feasibility Study will be filed on SEDAR within 45 days of this release…”
Revelo Resources JV Partner Minera Newmont Chile Commences Drilling Montezuma Copper-Gold Project in Northern Chile
Chile
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA–(Oct. 4, 2016)
Aura Minerals Announces Basic and Additional Breakdown of Rights Offering
TORONTO, ON–(Marketwired – October 04, 2016)
Erdene Resource Drills 116 Metres of 2.0 g/t Gold at Bayan Khundii Gold Project in Mongolia; Expands Q4 Drill Program
HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA–(Oct. 4, 2016) – Erdene Resource Development Corp. (TSX:ERD)
Jaguar Signs Earn-In Agreement to Sell Gurupi Project to Avanco Resources
TSX: JAG
TORONTO, Oct. 4, 2016
Big Al,
Don´t be sad,there are some good Crow recepies out there 🙂
LOL
Big Al,Cory,Doc,Rick,
Could you also comment on, Global X Gold Explorers ETF (GOEX) when you comment on the miners?
Thanks
Commodities gapped up versus gold today and GNX:GLD is up 4.43% right now:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75800183898&a=378282313
GNX also looks good in dollars:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p02910919792&a=462534878
Al:
Most of what we learned in the late 60’s/early 70’s in economics isn’t working. Samuelson’s thoughts are out. Like you said, “we in a new Paradigm.
http://bit.ly/2duwy1P The dollar stalled at a resistance trendline today. I think that we will start to see a rebound in precious metals soon and have targets on gold at 1500, silver 25 and expect the dollar to fall under 90.
Velma,
That $1500 level could take 3-4 weeks or longer?
sometime this quarter.
Thanks. I think next week will tell us where we are going and at what velocity. So far I guess we can call it “flush week”.
I think Doc is right on with his thoughts of fear and people getting out of everything.
Especially in that the $$ isn’t charging that much. Something else is happening.
+1!!!!!
Doc, you said in the past that GDX should get to the 23 area and that would be a good time to start getting in. Do you still fell that way or is GDX going lower than 23?
My gut and some technicals tell me lower.
One thing that’s very unlikely in gold miners us for sentiment to see zero again for some time. You might get a low sentiment reading, and considering the sentiment presently, readings have pulled back quite a bit. So I woukd say that sentiment may actually be reliable in forecasting the rebound:
Us paper gold bugs are taking it on the nose and up the poop exit today! Dang! Gonna have to average down now. I am still out of day trades until tomorrow. Being forced to hold DUST over night. Fingers and toes crossed on both sides!
Fib after 61.8% comes 100%, I believe.
100% after 61.8% ?
I don’t think so CFS….
LPG
LPG, so what does?
CFS —-> there’s something called “google”. It’s amazing.
Best,
LPG
I need gold to come in for a smooth landing after hours and hold off on any move up until 10:06am tomorrow. I want to be able to take MY profits from DUST before NUGT busts a move.
Big Al, I know my sight is bad, but dollar going to the moon!
What are you looking at?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD
can not use techs Al?
Demand has dropped big time.
Looks pretty fundimental to me.
People gotta forget the “noise”, gold will move up again and like Doc says, itll take time.
But its fundimental, on the up swing it could get psychological.
Lets hope. lol
psycho – logical It will be logical that people will go psycho and pile in…
Yes Jason, I agree, when gold moves up watch the comments on this site, people do go nuts.
But they dump just as quick.
Psychology more than fundimental imo.
with a 70 year supply of gold the price should be lower, after years of pundits claiming buy before you cant, people eventually catch on.
There are always new people I suppose.
So, imo its psychology more than techs or fundimentals.
Guess thats why “momentum” traders make money.
I don’t know if the Doc is right about a rounded bottom. He could be right, but I’m not a chartist.
As a fundamentalist, I believe we are near the beginning of a bull commodity market.
Meats and suhar are still strong today. Oil is not weak considering the strength of the dollar.
More telling is the relative price/volume behavior of emerging markets (e.g. ETF EEM) relative to the S&P index. This is indicating strength coming in commodities.
Regardless of what happens in the next few days, I, personally, will be fully invested in commodities and precious metals by the end of this week.
Time will be the judge of whether I am right or wrong.
My belief is that seasonal factors will make the bounce back up faster than the Doc is estimating. If he is right and I am wrong, then waiting is still acceptable, because I do not mind holding. Meanwhile I’m putting in lots of stink bids, so please sell.
I think this slide is making up for June 24. I stand by my 1500 target for gold before 2017.
Are you THE Velma from Stock Twits?
Yes.
Welcome to the K E Report. Mostly Gold bugs around here but we talk about other sectors as well. Much less chimpanzee behavior around here as compared to ST.
Thanks. There are good people here.
+1
What is anyones opinion about cash in banks? BMO just restructured about a billion and TD went black? So somethings happening.
Is anyone concerned?
Bob M was really thinking Dbank could ripple everywhere.
Wish he would comment again.
Personally I went to pot shares instead of going just cash awhile back, figured might as well make a buck or two before moving back to PMs.
Hasnt been bad, One share I own has 5 bagged, added a little bit there.
Anyone have an opinion?
b,
I have no real problem having tens of thousands of dollars in the bank as long as it is in a good bank like a good community bank. I would not recommend having much, if any, in a systemically important bank, if possible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_systemically_important_banks
As far as this TD Bank ATM problem, computer glitches happen all the time even to the banks. I have seen the same thing a few times before with other banks. I myself once went to a couple of ATMs and it said “temporarily out of service”. I did not panic and think that the U.S. banking system has crashed like some people in the ALT media would.
As far as Deutsche bank, many people especially those in the ALT media lack knowledge concerning how a major bank that becomes insolvent could be resolved in an orderly way. They just assume that if DB fails that it will take down every bank in the world just as easy as knocking over some dominos. Not true. There is much more to it then they know. Even though I am not a banking expert I know more than the vast majority of people do about what I am going to say. From what I have read from numerous sources, bank regulators have plans on how to handle the insolvency of a large bank. For example they can create a new bridge bank, which would be solvent, and transfer all of the assets and certain liabilities of the insolvent bank to the bridge bank. This would include all of the deposits. Also derivative contracts could be transferred to the bridge bank which would prevent derivatives counterparties from closing out early the contracts and taking the collateral or from filing a bankruptcy claim since the derivative contracts are now in a solvent bank. The bridge bank also would allow the day-to-day operations to continue for depositors. A bail-in could be done to recapitalize or at least in part to help recapitalize the bank. Stockholders and unsecured creditors such as subordinated bondholders would be take a loss. I even read that some derivative liabilities could be used in a bail-in. Uninsured deposits could also be used in a bail-in but I think it is possible that some kind of back door bail-out would be involved before any depositor lost money. This is why I have no problem having some money in the bank. I do not believe like Bill Holter and what some others do in that the whole global financial system will crash within a 48 hour period.
If any one wishes to add to what I said or if I need corrected on something I would welcome it.
JMiller,
I don’t think the global financial system will crash within a 48hr period either.
It CAN (there’s always a possibility), but I think it won’t (the likelihood is slim).
What I will say though is the following:
* historically, it seems to me people have put money in a bank coz they’ve considered it SAFER than holding it themselves.
* these days, it seems to me that banks are definitely not as safe as “many” want us to believe. So, to a certain extent, why take the risk of having asset in the banking system ?
Under this light, it seems to me that historically, putting liquid assets in a bank was a way to reduce risk of private ownership (by theft) while these days, I’m not sure that holding A LOT of liquid assets in a banks actually doesn’t contribute to INCREASING one’s risks.
That’s why I am personally happy – and stated it several times during KER interviews – to hold both gold and silver as to me, first and foremost, these are assets OUTSIDE of the banking system. To me, cash in hand (not in a bank account) also fits the bill (pun intended).
Now, as a side note, fwiw, I refrain from investing in banks.
The reason, is that typically, I cannot find out what a bank has in its books just by looking at its financial statements.
More importantly, I think that banks (those w. derivs books etc…) do not know THEMSELVES know what they have in their books and on top of that, do not UNDERSTAND the risk within their books (risk is typically mispriced). So if they don’t know what’s on their books, can’t price risk properly, and I can’t have a good grasp of their book (hence their risk) myself, why would I allocate capital to them ?
If I think there’s a risk that a bank mispricing risk on their books might lead to me, a depositor, be subject to a haircut, why would I take the risk to leave “a lot” of asset within that institution ? Sometimes, I think some risk are not worth being taken. As good old Doug Casey says (in a nutshell): “when it comes to taking money out of the banking system, it’s better to be 1yr early, than 1mn late”.
Financial wizards can do all the financial engineering they want w. SPV creation, shoving bad assets in those SPVs etc… At the end, when there are losses, someone has to take those losses. When you have assets outside of the banking system, you can think about the financial wizards and tell them: “Hammer time – U can’t touch this”. 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3pd5FnhjX8g
My 2cts.
Best,
LPG
LPG,
Thanks for your thoughts. I agree pretty much with what you have said. A few things I would like to touch on. You state, “these days, it seems to me that banks are definitely not as safe as “many” want us to believe”, to which I agree especially when talking about the larger banks. You then state “why take the risk of having asset in the banking system”. Well why not? Not all banks have the same risk and my community bank is nowhere as risky as the TBTF banks. And most depositors, specifically insured depositors, are not subject to bail-ins according to bail-in regulations. And only large banks would have bail-ins, not small banks. Also the last thing any government would want to do is to take depositors money. Doing so would create panic and bank runs. And since I do not believe there is any real chance of a 48 hour complete collapse of the banking system why would I need to rush out tomorrow to get all my money out of a good community bank. Realistically it would seem that the main risk of having money in a good local bank is something like hyperinflation in which it would not matter if I have those dollars in the bank or physically in my safe. It would be devalued all the same. This is why I have over 30% in physical precious metals.
Concerning banks that have derivatives you said “why would I allocate capital to them?” Well I agree which is why I said that I would not recommend having much money, if any, in a systemically important bank, if possible. I recommend a good local bank or credit union. There are about 1500 banks in the U.S. with no derivatives. My bank has no derivatives, hardly any unsecured loans, securities that are priced to market, no subprime loans. And a much better than average capital ratio and leverage ratio. There are hundreds of mostly smaller banks that are like this.
The original poster asked “What is anyones opinion about cash in banks”. To which my reply would be that at this time I do not see any immediate risk of having some money in a good bank. I firmly believe any banking system collapse would take weeks not days. Now LPG, if you had mentioned the remote chance of an EMP attack or nuclear war then having your cash at home might be a better idea.
JMiller,
I’m 100% with you w. re: to community banks and some of the criterias you mentioned. And I also agree that they are safer than large banks. I should have been more specific – my bad & apologies.
Re: nuclear war & Co’, I’m not one of those – ie I don’t think it’s gonna happen. The thing is that IF I’m wrong and it does occur, I don’t think having cash either in a bank or at home will matter, quite frankly – unless one lives near Ushuaia.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks LPG – I had never heard of Ushuaia before…..
Ushuaia
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Ushuaia is the capital of Tierra del Fuego, Antártida e Islas del Atlántico Sur Province, Argentina. It is commonly regarded as the southernmost city in the world.
There was the small town of Little America V in Antarctica but it floated away on an iceberg…..
_____________________________________________________________________________
Little America V
Little America V was established on January 3, 1956, at Kainan Bay, some 30 miles to the east of Little America IV, as part of Operation Deep Freeze. Little America V served as the American base in the South Polar program in the International Geophysical Year, from July 1, 1957, to December 31, 1958. Little America V was constructed by United States Navy Seabees in the three-month window before the Antarctic winter makes construction nearly impossible. All of Little America V was constructed below the snow line in the ice, with individual living quarters, generator room, cafeteria, and with ramps leading out at one end for tracked vehicles. This type of construction meant that none of those staying in Little America V had to go outdoors in the harsh winter when going from one section to another of the Antarctic town.”
“The site of Little America V went to sea on Iceberg B-9 in 1987.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_America_(exploration_base)
thx for the comment jmiller.
I agree lpg.
the time for investing in banking institutions was alot of years ago imo.
Hello b,
I’ve seen VERY some smart people buying some very long dated Call options on some European banks – think about 8-10yr options. I THINK they have a chance to make bank – pun intended. But to be honest, I think they’ll have a bad surprise w. some of their bets too. Specifically, if some of the European banks end-up being nationalized – like I believe some of them will – THEN shareholders will take it on the chin (and the average guy on the street will find it “normal” as long as he, a depositor, is not subject to a bail-in).
Thinking about it, large banks to me are like PMs pure exploration companies: I don’t know what’s in the banks’ books, and the banks don’t know either. For a pure explorer, I don’t know what/IF the drills will hit and the exploring company doesn’t know either.
Despite similarities, I find more comfort in allocating capital to exploration companies run by competent mgt teams/geos (ie those who’ve had success previously).
Best,
LPG
It’s all about the dollar. There is a trend line support. Today was a false move up. Whenever bottom trendline breaks. Gold is going to move back up. I really don’t see the dollar moving any higher here.
b,
The ” Great Unwind ” of derivatives has started. Investors have not come to grips with it, yet. It’s a nescasary occurace that has to happen to bring back a more fair and sustainable system. Those on the wrong side are going to experience some pain.
Dead kitty cat bounce tomorrow?
Al, don’t be so hard on yourself. You and Chris are the only ones that have made any sense to me lately. Tune out the noise. The TA guys are like a flock of birds. They are often right but they are often wrong too. I have found that they are often a good contrary indicator. When they all say something is going lower, it is often the opposite. If I had listened to them, I would never have bought anything late last year and early this year. By the time most of them finally said to buy I was already up 10 to 15%. I have come down hard the last month but despite that I am still sitting on very healthy gains of about 30%. I think if I acted on the technical indicators off this site, I would have been twisted around and in and out of the markets so much I would have ended up in the loony bin. It is a long term bull market in gold and gold stocks…go to your happy place and don’t let short term technical indicators shake you out.
I cried more today listening to Jack Nicklaus’ and Jim Nance’s tributes to Arnold Palmer at Arnie’s funeral today than I did watching my portfolio plunge. R.I.P. Arnie.
I doubt gold can suddenly stop after at $42 move down. It can only have a tiny bounce and more investors then get a chance to get out at a higher level and then another big drop comes.
Al, you have moved to the opposite extreme now. Fundamentals determine long-term price action. A combination of fundamentals and technicals determines short-term price action.
Gold has some arc support at 1255 – 1250 then 1233 and 1212 this week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p37352535878&a=369192745
Gold now has a daily RSI reading below 30 for the first time since last November.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p95400853570&a=443006542
SLV:GLD is at uptrend support and just above the 89 week EMA:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=8&dy=0&id=p37848333201&a=479600340
Thanks Doc…so this could well into 2017 you think?
Dave IMHTO (in my humble technical opinion), we’ve seen the highs for 2016 for the PMs. That tells me we have work moving into 2017—I’ve said since 2015 that 2016 would be a transitional year for gold and that I didn’t expect 2017 to be that much better then 2016. I believe that 2018-2019 are the years when we start moving in earnest. If things start to change technically on some of the monthly charts, then I’ll change my scenario but not until then.
Wow that’s a long to for the centrals to hold off the impending debt and banking crisis!
I hope you are right. In the mean time, I will hold onto my PMs and PM core holdings.
Doc, there is no one on earth that can make calls two or three years out, including you.
So before you lose all credibility I would retract that and just stick to we will know more in two weeks.
Even the very best technicians have no clue what 2017, 2018, or 2019 will be like.
I know you are smart enough to know that so I would tone down the rhetoric
James,
Doc’s TA IS NOT rhetoric ! Wake up!
You were correct, again. You’re da man, doc. Thanks!
You are correct Al. Fundamentals are thrown out the door in a manipulated market. Just as are technicals. If you stick with the same story long enough eventually you will get it right. Doc and Cory should take a step back and listen to their statements from back pre-Brexit where “the bookies say it won’t happen, and the bookies don’t lose”, then the “this too shall pass” discussions.
Before you all bow to Doc’s technical wizardry, think long and hard about what he is saying. He is only a man, not a technical genius. If he were, he wouldn’t have been talking down gold and silver these many months.
True sir. There are NO TA or fundamental folks who can call things with much more than %50 success. If there was we would all be following them.
I prefer my fibonacci with a fruity, lightly spiced tomato sauce, and a heavy red.
mmmmm Delicious!
mmm sounds gooood!
Morning Doc,
Ive been following your comments on the gold/miners market and know your forcast is sideways to down over the next weeks/months with, most likely, a new leg up to follow.
If I may, what mining stocks do you feel have the best opportunities for strong runs in the next run? And do you have any thoughts on GPL and NAK?