Consumer confidence continues to rise, optimism abounds!

December 9, 2016

Our conversation with Rick today focuses on the updated consumer confidence reaching 112 from a reading last week of 107. Americans are optimistic about the future of the US economy and job market since Trump became the President Elect.

We also address a question from Andrew who asked about 30 year bonds.

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

    Dec 09, 2016 09:01 AM

    I dumped my big USO position at a small gain even though I have a 54.50 target but oil is looking weak and I don’t need the stress. I will just trade XOP which is much easier as it goes like a yoyo.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:15 AM

    Excelsior, funny you would mention Alfred E Neuman.

    I did something just this past week with him but decided not to put it out there.

    I didn’t want to cross the line.

    Maybe I will just send it to Al

    Al be on the lookout

      Dec 09, 2016 09:58 AM

      Alfred E Neuman seems like the perfect spokesperson to symbolize the general optimism we’re seeing in the markets at present.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:59 AM

        It’s a Mad, Mad world out there….

    Dec 09, 2016 09:22 AM

    Gold continues to get absolutely crushed.

    Talk about being taken to the wood shed

    Gold bugs cross their fingers and pray the swamp creatures are right.

    The gold pumpers and hawksterd keep doing their carnival barking.

    “Step right up, don’t be shy, gold is going to the sky! So buy buy buy!”

    Al the never Trumpers will soon be singing

    “We love you Donald oh yes we do, if you leave we will be blue.
    We love you Donald thank you, to you we are true.
    I once was blue, but now I’m red, just lime your head.
    We love you Donald, oh yes we do, Jezebels out and we love you!”



    Dec 09, 2016 09:34 AM

    Where is Bo Polny or Andy Hoffman whe we need them?

    Jim Rickards please explain

    Mike Maloney where are you ?

    Peter Schiff are you home?

    Rick Rule, Jim Sinclair, anyone

    The swamp is murky and deep and filled with many creatures

      Dec 09, 2016 09:42 AM

      As it goes down to 1100 the experts will be increasing their target prices to 2000 to 5000 living in a dream. 1100 might even fail if gold fails to rally in January when the stock market corrects.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:34 AM

        We are below 1160 n0w, I dont see how 1140 isnt possible.
        I know I know, thats “the ” low and we already saw it.
        Looks to me we could not only get there but if gold goes below 1140 it could drop to 1070-80.
        If it doesnt turn up from there we get to see below 1000 again.
        This is all fantasy of course, we are never going to get that good a buying opportunity again.

          Dec 09, 2016 09:41 AM

          If gold did fall thru the floor, I wonder what the new gold would be? green maybe?

          Can you imagine how sales will be when marketing starts?

          Dec 09, 2016 09:40 PM

          People who don’t see we are getting a year end smash like usual are stupid. Next year, gold will resume the rising trend again. Communist Obama is going to be behind us. Republicans are much more gentle with fort Knox gold. This misery is another buying opportunity as long as you remember to sell.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:05 PM

            Hope all is well, Dragonite.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:26 PM

            All is good except I am quite busy due to new job. Thanks Matthew.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:28 PM

            Funny to see the Lesser return to his old self after a brief change, haha funny.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:16 PM

            Hey Dragonite. Good to see you posting again. Cheers!

      Dec 09, 2016 09:13 PM

      JTL/BM: If you went away like you promised there would be one less and the quality of the board would be up by 25%

      Send your check for $1000 to Al because you aren’t going to be able to show you bought silver at $4 in 1999 in ten lifetimes. You lied and it’s time to pay up or shut up.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:43 AM

    The weekly Ulcer Index for gld has matched the highs of every low since the bear market began, save for one–the big crash in early 2013.

    Gold either bounces here, or put a fork in it, as a retest of the lows is a minimum of what will happen. The monthly chart points to a test of the lower bollinger band which is sub $1100. which is really the last major support before $gold targets the 200 month MA, which is down near $900. If we go sub $1100, $gold does have a date with the 200 month MA in the next couple of years, which is rising, but slowly.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:49 AM

    The boulevard of broken dreams is paved with silver and gold

    Dec 09, 2016 09:49 AM

    This is a worse correction than every single leg down of the bear market save for one. Let that sink in.

    I’m a contrarian at heart, but honestly that doesn’t seem too bullish to me longer term. A 2013 crash, even from here, is still in the cards. Oversold means absolutely nothing for $gold (or yen). This is how BEAR markets act, not bulls!!!!

      Dec 09, 2016 09:55 AM

      That’s a valid point Spanky. I’d point out how resilient the miners have been relative to the metals prices as an interesting divergence that typically appears in bull markets. In bear markets the miners get squashed far worse than the metals.

      Just some food for thought. Cheers!

      Dec 09, 2016 09:15 AM

      I don’t know if you know this or not, but the most convincing moves in any sector tend to go counter to the trend. This is to keep the average retail guy (JTL, if he’s lucky) optimistic when he should be selling and fearful as hell when he should be buying.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:50 AM

    When self proclaimed perma-bears turn bullish, it is time to get bearish.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:51 AM

    Spanky, don’t say that too loud, you will get castrated, lambasted and exiled by the likes of Matthew and his zombies.

    I mean after all it says it on his charts!

      Dec 09, 2016 09:58 AM

      Says the guy who knows precisely nothing. You’re frickin’ hillarious James. Too bad the irony is lost on you.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:00 AM

      For all I know he could be right, but we are at a major inflection point. Even if this is a bull, that is not going to prevent TPTB from shaking the tree as hard as possible. In this damn sector, enough is never enough, it can always go lower and lower and lower, and then eventually reverse.

      Some idiot always claims there are still too many bulls and that sentiment needs to go to zero. Yes, in a bear market that is true, but that shouldn’t happen in a bull market.

      I am holding my miners but if the $hui busts 160, I will be squealing like a stuck pig, as I am sure many others will be.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:11 AM

        Gold has retraced half of its 2016 move and is very oversold at the moment. This is not unusual and the extra negative sentiment right now is a welcome bonus. Strong bull market die when guys like JTL become confident.

          Dec 09, 2016 09:36 AM

          I am not sure how this will pan out honestly. You just get so used to this sector being the whipping boy, and really nothing has changed. until it can regain its 50 WMA,

          You keep saying that these retracments are normal, and I agree, but only when the the long term MAs are bullishly aligned and gold is way way above those MAs. Then of course a 50 % correction is not a shock. But we are below every single key weekly MA and monthly MA right now, This is not bull market behavior. If it turns out to be just an incredible shakeout, well good on you for remaining so adamant.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:03 PM

      There’s a huge difference between Spanky’s style and yours, James.

      Not that I expect you to be able to learn any more about how to interact with people than you can about how to navigate markets.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:59 AM

    Meanwhile, I’m enjoying as much as a 34% gain in CEM this week:

    Dec 09, 2016 09:00 AM

    Ned Schmidt…do you want to retract what you said yesterday?

    I know you are a pros pro, but maybe you want to flip flop here.

    Or maybe the proper way of saying it is pivot as the price changes, adjust your thinking.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:05 AM

      Your ignorance is truly astounding, James. WOW.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:09 AM

    Spanky, I sense you are feelin pain.

    In all seriousness that is not a good mental attitude to have for investing.

    This market certainly seems ridiculously over sold, but who knows?

    Life’s a gamble! Remember that!

    You made your choices, live with your decisions.

    I made a 65k bet on NUGT. I WAS UP 40k at one point, now I am down 40k

    It is what it is. If it comes back it comes back, if it doesn’t it doesn’t.

    I also made a killing on Brexit and Trump
    I lost on Sergey when he blundered in game 10

    It happens.

    Stay the course and don’t do anything in fear.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:23 AM

      No pain. I will survive. Just feel like a fool sometimes watching the stock market run away. And if this PM bear really does resume (i.e., gold makes a lower low), well, I will probably never touch a mining stock again in my life. Will never sell my bullion though. But I will hold these miners now to the bitter end. No way will I be shaken out. It’s either going to be a card board box for me or a yacht on the Riviera.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:46 AM

        Hope you get the yacht. 🙂

    Dec 09, 2016 09:16 AM

    The bollinger bands on the $HUI are super tight now. Headfakes and shakeouts galore incoming.

    Can we ever explode upwards in the miners on such a set up??? NEVER. It is always a massive plunge before any type of reversal. The miners never go from a neutral position and trend up. Its always straight down before any type of up move. Always. I hate this sector.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:19 AM

    If you hate this sector you should not be in it.

    Go find another way to make money

      Dec 09, 2016 09:06 PM


      Your words and actions are consistently contradictory.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:20 AM

    Why don’t you just do what Matthew does?

    He wins every bet

      Dec 09, 2016 09:32 AM

      What the heck are you babbling about?

      Dec 09, 2016 09:46 AM

      jtl, are u related to bird? or merely picking up where he left off?
      That was funny tho.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:26 PM

        JTL is not Birdman. JTL has been posting here for years and is his own man.

        Birdman was far more long-winded, and I haven’t seen any Megaphone charts or talks of chickens or turtles from JTL. I think the coast is clear…..

    Dec 09, 2016 09:38 AM


    I don’t know how long you have been investing in precious metals and mining shares but you sound like someone in over there head.

    I’ve been a professional horse handicapper all my life and the words that are coming out of your mouth are bankroll poison.

    First of all don’t ever say you feel like a fool.
    You are defeated before you even begin with that attitude.
    You might as well take the money and blow it at the track with that attitude, at least you will have more fun.

    Then you say you are watching the stock market run away?

    Its probably running over a cliff.
    The stock market is acting like trump is going to save the world. He isn’t.
    Remember the roaring twenties. Every ahole was making money in stocks despite of themselves. Same crap here. Nothing new under the sun.

    Then you talk about never touching a mining stock again.
    Sounds like you bought a sale pitch from a hawkster and now have serious buyer remorse.

    Then you talk about a card board box or a yacht, again you are over your head, and too extreme.

    Here is my advice to you…walk away. Just walk away.

    The markets are not going anywhere.

    I could say a lot more but that is for another day

      Dec 09, 2016 09:55 AM

      I am still up for the year, but barely. And I am totally unleveraged. I am not gambling. I got in the miners when the $HUI was about 140. Some of the turds I bought have basically already completed round trips, like AUY. Woohoo, its up a whopping 10% still. Pretty sure that gain will be wiped out next week.

      I KNOW the SM is a fraud, and yet it climbs ever higher and higher. I feel a little bit of despair because where am I supposed to invest if I have no faith in the system? It is pretty depressing

        Dec 09, 2016 09:59 AM

        There are dividend paying oil companies, some around the 10% area.
        If thats not enough and your looking for home runs,maybe start looking into pot shares.

        Just apply everything youve ever heard from goldbugs, its always a great time to buy, if the price drops its an even better time to buy etc etc.

        If you prefer fundimentals, like investing in companies that actually make money (like that matters anymore) pot growers are making money now and they are still in expansion mode, its going to take a long time for them to meet demand.
        At least in Canada, I havnt looked into the states since I figured out phot.

        Another fundimental probly pretty good area will be agriculture, if Trump doesnt put them in bankruptcy first.

        Course, gold will probly go to the moon sometime in 2017 or 18, well, at least before most of us die, no gaurantees of course, lifes a gamble.

        There are probly better things than pot growers, I just havnt heard of them yet.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:18 PM

      JTL/BM: You either need to learn how to spell and use correct English or stop posting until you sober up. Not only do you sound as if you are brain dead, your English wouldn’t pass the 5th grade.

      I quote, “but you sound like someone in over there head.”

      over their head, not there head


    Dec 09, 2016 09:45 AM

    The $XAU is probably going to tag the 100 WMA before this is over. Right now its is forming a textbook bear flag on the weekly chart and crawling meagerly along the rising 50 WMA. Of course if the $XAU dips that far, they are going to do a number on the $HUI–it will drop well below its 100 WMA.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:18 AM

    GCC weekly chart there is a head and shoulders that is just itching to break down. If it does, the commodity complex will be testing its lows. yeah yeah I know, another golden buying opportunity for true believers.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:27 AM

      Thanks Pete – I can hear the money hitting Friedland’s bank account as we speak….

        Dec 09, 2016 09:38 AM

        Yes, 🙂

    Dec 09, 2016 09:29 AM

    Spanky, the HUI is pure gambling, don’t kid yourself.

    Get out of the sector, and stay out.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:35 AM

    Every asset class has its moment in the sun, gold and silver had there’s.

    They rotate every decade or so.

    The commodity super cycle is over.

    You can make upseen profits on the way up, and lose it all in a blink.

    Stick to quality stocks that pay good dividends. In the long run you will be fine.

    I know the siren call for hot commodities is alluring, but is hardly ever ends well.

    Like Ulysses he had to tie himself to the mast so he wouldn’t get caught but he couldn’t resist the sound.

    Do yourself a favor, leave this board, buy yourself good quality dividend paying stocks.

    It isn’t exciting but it works.

    Or as Luther said to Johnny Hooker in The Sting, it may not be exciting but it’s mostly legal.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:19 PM

      gold and silver had there’s.

      Should be gold and silver had their’s

    Dec 09, 2016 09:46 AM

    Matthew, strong bull market die when guys like jtl become confident.

    Your a joke, a real joke.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:07 PM

      I am extremely confident about that assertion.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:49 AM

    Spanky, Matthew has no clue about me, ignore him.

    Tnere is no prove at all that we are in the start of a new bull market.

    Just wishful thinking

    Dec 09, 2016 09:52 AM

    What am I babbling about? You ask.

    Spanky is having a tough go of it.

    I suggested he just do what you do.

    You have 5 and 10 naggers every other day.

    He should just follow you.

    Why you have a problem with that?

      Dec 09, 2016 09:05 PM

      What I have a problem with is your dishonesty. 5 and 10 baggers every other day? I have never come close to making such a dumb claim and you can check out my real time comments and match them with the charts. I comment about what I am buying before they go up and when they do, you conveniently pretend that I’m twisting the facts. You’re a dirtball, no wonder you get mistaken for Birdman.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:21 PM


      You babble about everything. The correct question should be, “What am I babbling about now?”

      Tnere is no prove

      How about There is no proof


    Dec 09, 2016 09:54 AM

    Spanky, ask Matthew where gold and his beloved silver will be a year from now…

    He won’t tell you because he doesn’t forecast.

    Truth of the matter is he has no clue.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:54 AM

    H&S on HL daily chart. If it breaks the neckline it projects down to the mid 4’s.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:55 AM

      That corresponds to the 50 WMA coincidentally. More pain coming.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:56 AM

    b, I am not related to Birdman.

    That’s on the record.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:32 PM

      jtl, I was making a “jockularity”.
      I know where your coming from, I do miss Birds drop calls tho, nobody better at them.

      And we dont know where things go, I listened to a pretty good lecture from a totally insane guy yesterday.
      He made a point I agree with, we are arrogant to think we know enough to know whats coming.
      (I once read a “swammy” guy saying even god doesnt know what will happen until it does)

      With gold, there are alot of moving parts, and the best I can tell that moves the price is “herdthink”
      Might be the same with pretty much everything actually.

      Golds a funny one, we need it for pretty much nothing, we have a 170 year supply above ground now,(maybe more) it really hurts the envirnment to dig it out, and we keep digging it.
      Heck we dont even need it as currency or money anymore, the alchemists have just figured out how to make it from coal (close enough to lead) so what actually makes the price increase?
      Gotta be herd think.

          Dec 09, 2016 09:28 PM


        Dec 09, 2016 09:54 PM

        Anyone who thinks that gold is needed “for pretty much nothing” has no absolutely no idea about how the world works.

          Dec 09, 2016 09:04 PM

          There are a few applications for Gold Mat, no argument, but we dont need anywhere near what we have above ground now.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:10 PM

            We debated this once, and got nowhere. I think Doug Casey made the case so well that there’s not much more to say on the matter.


            There’s a reason gold replaced seashells and wampum, just as much as there is a reason machine guns replaced broadswords.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:16 PM

            And it goes even deeper than that. Not only as it relates to interest rates and allocating/rationing capital, but just as importantly, as it pertains to economic freedom — and therefore, all freedom.

            Alan Greenspan told the truth about it in a concise piece he wrote fifty years ago:


            Dec 09, 2016 09:18 PM

            Small b is not qualified to say how much gold “we” need, no one is.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:27 PM

            You said it Mat, “no one is”.

            I understand that some people are after their pieces of silver, but as a whole, what do we actually NEED gold for?

            We NEED oxygen,water,food,….even if we did NEED gold, its a long way down the list.

            The gold cost of course is the destruction of things we actually do NEED.
            We have ways to reduce the cost of course, but destruction is inevitable.

            Maybe whats really needed is an advancement in understanding as to what is valuable.

            Hawkins has actually said recently, if we are going to save the species, we either change our ways or move to another planet, this one is about done.

            I am not being righteous, I own gold.
            But I dont kid myself into believing I NEED it.

            In reality, gold could be one of the last things we NEED.
            Kinda like uranium reactors and nuclear bombs.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:02 PM

            You’d have to seriously study it to get what I am saying but you have it backwards. Debt money is the destroyer of civilization — morality and virtue. Dishonest money leads to a dishonest society. Debase the money and you debase the people. And that’s where the West it at: Idiocracy.


            Gold is green, not only because it elevates society by anchoring it in reality, but because it naturally limits (not eliminates) rampant speculation and the resultant bubbles. America’s housing bubble, for example, was/is extremely unfriendly to the environment and represents one of the greatest misallocations of capital/resources in U.S. history. Without government, central banking and fiat funny money, it is highly unlikely that such a bubble would have occurred.

            Then there’s the Military industrial Complex. There is no way it could have grown to the size that it is if the people had to be taxed overtly in order to fund it. The overwhelming majority does not have a clue about the insidiousness of debt and deficit spending and how it robs prosperity from their future and their unborn kids’ future.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:05 PM

            “Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the Capitalistic System was to debauch the currency… Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose.” — John Maynard Keynes

            Note his use of the words “hidden forces.” One has to gain a thorough understanding of economics and money to know what he meant by that.


      Dec 09, 2016 09:22 PM


      Sure and you bought silver at $4 in 1999 too.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:10 PM

    I’m loving all the precious metal bearishness and emotionality, because I’m flat on the precious metals sector currently.

    I have been long GUSH for a while, and have done well. I’m long volatility, and done badly.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:27 PM

      A slightly modified version of Matthew MA chart in gold.

      If you take the emotion out of it (e.g. if you’re neither long nor short) then this looks like a great trade shaping up. I hope I catch it.

      No need to predict when it will turn, much less what the price will be in a year (what a moronic notion). Just watch the chart and try catch the turn when it does happen, control risk:reward.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:47 PM

        Nice chart. Does the size of it have something to do with being far-sighted? 🙂 Just kidding!

          Dec 09, 2016 09:19 PM

          That way I can enjoy it on the big screen while eating popcorn on the couch 😉

          Plus it made it a little easier to draw precision long-term trend lines.

            Dec 09, 2016 09:05 PM

            I didn’t think of that and I do like precision lines. I use two 24″ screens so I do have the real estate available. 😉

            Dec 09, 2016 09:36 PM

            GH – great chart, yes it is looking like there could be a bounce off that trend-line soon, and my goal is to be well positioned when it does.

      Dec 09, 2016 09:57 PM

      Protectionist Trump Policies To Crash Dollar, Gold and Bitcoin to Soar
      Posted on December 9, 2016 by The Doc

      Not sure there is alot of “bearish” happening gh

      I only see a couple people thinking golds heading lower here.

        Dec 09, 2016 09:13 PM

        I see more talking it down than up on this thread. I’m flat. One must specify time scale when talking bullish or bearish.

          Dec 09, 2016 09:30 PM

          I should make it clear–I’m flat because I’m currently just using the precious metal ETFs. If I were doing individual stocks, I would be trying to emulate Excelsior, Matthew, et al., and I wouldn’t be flat right now.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:19 PM

    Back up the truck gold is on sale today !

    Oh I forgot it’s on sale every day

    Dec 09, 2016 09:55 PM

    In spite of the attacks and censorship I will still continue to drain the swamp

      Dec 10, 2016 10:55 AM


      If you left there would be one less toad and troll and no one would notice for weeks that you were missing.

    Dec 09, 2016 09:22 PM

    Let’s be clear – no one is talking down gold.

    It doesn’t need any help