Recapping The Worst Week For Gold All Year
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We made it to the weekend. After the worst week for gold since the election there has been some major damage done to the charts. Now in oversold territory some are expecting a bump in the coupling weeks. Unfortunately this bump would have a long way to go to renew the bullish attitude. There are some great deals on PM stocks but is now really the time to buy?
I love to hear from all our listeners so please email me if you have any questions on companies or topics – Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 & 2: In the first two segments to kick off the show I have a relatively new newsletter writer who is focused on metals stocks – David Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junkie. In the first segment we discuses 3 major potential gold metal catalysts. The second segment is focused on 3 stock that David is trading.
- Segment 3: Aurvista Gold President and CEO Jean LaFleur updates us on the 30,000 meter drill program underway and when we can expect these drill results.
- Segment 4: Another new guest to the program Chris Kimble from Kimble Charting Solutions joined me on our Monday market wrap. This is another chartist I am very impressed with.
- Segment 5: An update from Falco Resources on the moves toward production and updates on the major exploration drilling program underway.
- Segment 6: Doc and I focus on the longer-term gold charts to determine if we could be stuck in a trading range for years.
- Segment 7: George Gero, Managing Partner at RBC Wealth Management – “Today’s sellers could turn into tomorrow’s buyers”.
- Segment 8: Round 2 of the French Election is tomorrow (Sunday) so Chris Temple and I breakdown what is could mean for the rest of Europe and the world.
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Yep. Thanks as always fellas.
Cheers.
Great to hear from David Erfle about Bear Creek & Teranga: Two core holdings for sure.
Agreed Tad. Recently I’ve become a shareholder in Bear Creek, after stalking it for several years, but this just seems like a good spot to at least get the position started. I have respect and am quite confident in their Management team (chaired by Catherine McLeod-Seltzer), and it is clear the marketplace is not factoring in the upside for their arbitration win from the government of Peru regarding their Santa Ana project. They should have an answer on that in the second half of this year.
As for Teranga, I’m also a shareholder, and they are one of my favorite mid-tier producers and are very undervalued at present, especially considering their Development project (acquired from Gryphon Minerals) and pipeline of exploration projects [in particular their Golden Hill project in the South Hounde Belt – Right next to Endeavour, Roxgold, Sarama/Acacia JV, Savary/Sarama JV, and Semafo].
I am very curious to see how things go after the 5:1 split and if institutional buyers start buying into this stock and if the liquidity picks up as a result.
MIF January 2017: (BCM) Bear Creek Mining Corp – Barbara Henderson
Beneath The Surface – Jan 30, 2017
Ditto – I like this practice of saying thank you…not enough thanks in these current thankless times!
Best to all, A
Thank you to Cory, Big Al and all Contributors.
Archdeacon (!) Andrew – Thank you for mentioning the importance in the practice of saying “Thank You.”
Much appreciated.
Cheer up everyone. Beyond belief 500:1 leverage in gold market is the final wash and rinse. Listen to Andrew Maguire below
same old , same old……because they can…….
Maguire had been wrong on every single disaster he saw coming since he crawled out of the woodwork. He needs to go back to selling cars and stop making stuff up. It’s clowns like him that are going to lose the bulls so much money when the bubble in gold and silver finally takes place. At the very top he’s going to be telling people to buy just like he was in 2011.
lol, so funny. I kinda figured kwn ment exactly that.
Always a good time to buy.
Thanks Robert.
Bob M. Great recent article. Agreed.
Compared to Silver and Platinum, Gold Is Getting Really Expensive
Bob Moriarty for The Gold Report (5/4/17)
http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/compared-to-silver-and-platinum-gold-is-getting-really-expensive
Gold is at a bit above the level it was when KWN was launched.
It is 1225 tonight. The peak in late 2009 was $1227, shortly after KWN was launched.
He rode it tot the then back down again. Maguire came out from under a rock around 2010 when silver was considerably higher than it is now, probably in the mid-20s. Negative returns, lots of excuses. That’s all.
By the way, Jeff Christian sees news highs in gold around 2020-2021. He might be too optimistic and he is a bona fide precious metals analyst, in my view.
King was lucky that he started his KWN site in 2009 so he had a bit of a ride up to the top of the precious metals markets. So far he has had 2 years up and 4 years down hard plus a measly year up: 2009-2011 and 2012-2015 and finally 2016.
Kitco has the yearly average in 2009 as $972. Peak was $1227. Gold has been close to that average in Dec 2015 by hitting $1045.
In 2009, the HUI gold bugs’ stock index traded between about 250 and 500. Soon after, HUI was 600 and a KWN guest said it would go to 900. Well, it went to 100 and now is at 186. Happy trading, listening to KWN!
Ref Seg 8 for which thank you Chris, accusations of hacking courtesy of Moscow suggest hidden panic in the Macron camp.
Just a point on Docs thought “how much lower can they go?”
ipt was at 11 cents, svm was at 60 cents for example, I dont think its out of the realm of possibilities to see those prices again should we have years of going nowhere.
Not real sure if those prices would really be devastating, they didnt go bust last time of months at those prices.
Whistleblower Andrew Maguire – 500/1 Leverage In The Gold Market And The BIS Intervention To Save Trillions Of Dollars Of Derivatives
On the heels of a couple of weeks of carnage in the gold and silver markets, today whistleblower Andrew Maguire spoke with King World News about 500/1 leverage in the gold market and the BIS intervention to save trillions of dollars of derivatives.
http://kingworldnews.com/whistleblower-andrew-maguire-5001-leverage-in-the-gold-market/
MTF:
Work out the math for me and show me how there are trillions of dollars in derivatives in metals. According to the BIS, it’s under $500 billion for all the futures contracts and options for gold. In comparison there are 836 times as much in derivatives for interest rates. The banks don’t give a rat’s ass about gold or silver. It’s way too small to be chump change.
I hope this table displays OK.
First line gives # of contracts, second line is weekly change. (under each category)
Positions as of Tuesday, May 2.
Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
101,538 30,171 16,458 43,731 130,305
-19,480 2,766 -8,565 316 -21,199
Traders
97 38 40 38 35
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 189,240 Long Short
27,513 12,306 161,727 176,934
2,187 1,456 -25,542 -27,729 -26,998
non reportable positions Positions as of: 149 102
CFS:
That’s not trillions.
Bob, I post what is going around the web. H12016?
What’s your take on MEK.V? The market didn’t seem to like the last two holes. I know they are a sponsor. Are you still bullish on them?
I bought MEK shares in Feb for all the reasons in my piece.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty020817.html
Nothing at all has changed except the shares have corrected. If you have read my book, you know that I like buying cheap and selling dear. MEK was cheap at $.08 in Feb and is cheaper today and they have done well in drilling.
The best two stock guys I know are Matthew and Excelsior and they are probably better than I am. Listen to them about timing. I can call turns now and again but my “opinion” is that until we wash out all those idiot speculators in silver the metals aren’t going up except for a dead cat bounce. Matthew is probably right about timing for shares.
King World News is embarrassing they are so one sided. Guys like Maguire are wrong 100% of the time yet they get a lot of coverage. I wouldn’t post him on my site if he showed up with a video of the 2nd coming of Christ.
The quality of a site is not based on who they post, they are judged best by who they don’t post.
Bob, I read your book. I was checking in case you went the other way. You have posted negative things about sponsors. I agree KWN sensationalizes things. All markets are manipulated is 100% correct. I post both sides of the equation. Maguire did post in real time to the CFTC, the manipulation in the silver market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/whistleblower-exposes-jp-morgans-silver-manipulation-scheme
MTF:
I’m not sure there are two sides to an issue of fraud.
It’s funny to me that most investors don’t separate gold from the gold miners. Like I’ve been saying for the last two years, forget gold, the miners are where you want to be. They haven’t looked so good in decades.
The XAU managed to go up more than 150% versus gold last year despite the fact that gold itself went up about 30%. That smokes anything that happened during the run from 2001 to 2011. Last year’s move was clearly more powerful than the rest, as well, yet there are still those who like to downplay, not only its size, but its significance.
XAU:GOLD is working on its 15 straight monthly close above the 20 month MA – another first for this century.
For those who can view a monthly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3A%24GOLD&p=M&yr=18&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36752610788&a=522214516
Great call Mathew:
Comex = Big money playing Monopoly without a board.
COMEX=SCAM
Exactly. I am seeing the same thing. I don’t get why there is so much doom and gloom about the gold stocks. They had a bad week but rallied strongly on Friday versus gold. Maybe it was a dead cat bounce but I find the action encouraging. I think you need to ignore the etfs and be selective. Many of my gold stocks with good fundamentals are holding or going up despite the etfs selling off.
The week definitely showed a bullish character turn for the miners. Gold fell 3.11% while GDX fell a little less at 3.06%. The senior miners typically fall two or three times as much as gold when the situation gets bearish. The week of November 7th, for example, saw gold finish down more than 6% while GDX settled at a loss of nearly 17%. More recently, for the week that began on April 17th and started the current move down, gold finished up very slightly but GDX lost about 3.8%. That’s a big drop considering that gold did go down at all. The miners provided leverage to a drop that didn’t exist but now they’re providing leverage to a rise that doesn’t exist: gold finished down on Friday while GDX gained over 2%.
It is great and appreciated that Matthew has spent a great deal of energy sharing information on miners for the last several years. Thanks again for the education…..OOTB
You’re welcome Jerry and thank you.
Yes, thanks Matthew.
Andrew Maguire – Jaw-Dropping 4,700 Tonnes Of Paper Silver Sold In Just 2 Hours In Yesterday’s Takedown
On the heels of massive paper selling on the Comex, today whistleblower Andrew Maguire told King World News that a jaw-dropping 4,700 tonnes of paper silver were sold in just 2 hours in yesterday’s takedown.
http://kingworldnews.com/andrew-maguire-jaw-dropping-4700-tonnes-of-paper-silver-sold/
Paper settlement will be just fine for most…….more profit paper, to buy the stock market.
this is really a joke at this point………waiting for the CFTC to do their job, which I do not think there is a snowballs chance in hell that they will do anything.
In addition……….silver stealer.net…….is a good read….for anyone thinking silver is going anywhere
It’s called “running the stops” and happens in every single commodity market and has for 5,000 years. All financial markets are manipulated, always have been, always will be. But there are always con men trying to convince people to follow their patter.
I wish I had a dollar for every time King World News used a sensational headline like “jaw dropping” or “explode higher” the last few years. I quit listening to the guys like Maquire and Bill Murphy years ago. Almost every week or month, they call for a COMEX default and call for gold or silver to spike higher. Some of their predictions are bizarre and they are almost always wrong. They have hurt many investors.
In 2011 27 barrels of oil were traded for every 1 consumed. I am sure it is much, much higher now. Such leverage!!!! It is a conspiracy I tell you!!!! They will default!!!! Something needs to be done!!!!
http://www.thesmartmama.com/understanding-how-oil-is-traded/
Agree Paul..but the investors who listen to them are hurting themselves…anyone who invests on advice from hucksters (ie King World News and Silver Doctor) deserve to lose.
gator………read the silver stealers.net………..great info…….you will enjoy it…. OOTB
It’s pretty clear that the 233 and 600 week moving averages matter most to gold:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p02156337899
FranSix had a good chart out today on ceo:
@F6 Re: TNX/PRII Daily
On the TNX/PRII daily chart, you have a reversal brewing after a third attempt at the high. The curiosity for this indicator is that it remains valid under all time scales, daily-weekly-monthly. On this chart, however, as opposed to the weekly or monthly chart of the same, a reversal appears a layup. The chart remains above the 233-day EMA for the moment.
With a temporary decline in oil prices and softness in treasury bonds in the U.S., gold prices declined but did not see a lower low. We’ve seen this scenario go back and forth over a period of weeks of uncertainty, leading to uncertainty in the mining shares. Overall, Canadian-listed mining shares have lagged $CAD as well as $U.S. gold prices since 2013, almost four years ago, by the end of this June.
-F6
#NegativeRealRates
I’ve found that what works for one time scale works for all time scales – just not necessarily at the same time.
Yes the Universe is Fractal in its nature. Love the Mandelbrot set images!!
It must be difficult for investors that don’t understand this why things like the Phi Ratio and Fibonacci numbers are so important in charting.
Mandelbrot Set: how it is generated
Nice. Thanks.
I would like to take the opportunity to remind everyone just how I managed to obtain this chart. I was reading Charles Kindleberger’s book, ‘Manias, Panics, And Crashes,’ where he stated that Myman Minsky, the Chicago economist theorized that gokd prices performed during periods of negative real rates.
I dropped the book and went immediately to the Web, to find that there was already a website that dealt with the subject, ‘Nowandfutures.com.’ I relied on their chart for many years, until I began looking for a more reliable real-time substitute for the same, if only because the Nowandfutures.com version updated only slowly.
Stockcharts provided a measure of inflation, ‘Pring’s Index’ which I could make use if and come up with a reliable charting facility of the concept of negative real rates, by combining the ten-year rate with Pring’s Inflation Index.
To my surprise, this combination actually worked like a charm, though nobody had thought to mix their chocolate with their peanut butter before in this way.
For fundamentals in the gold orice, thus would be the go-to indicator.
That’s interesting and thanks for sharing it. I’ve looked at that chart ever since you first posted it.
It was a process that took several years to complete, arriving at this invaluable chart, and I am still wondering how long the data will prove the theory.
Thanks FranSix. That is interesting how ideas popped out from the book regarding negative real rates and started the quest for more info on a chart. I’m glad you pointed out the Pring’s index about 1-2 years ago, and always appreciate your Technical Analysis. Much appreciated.
Swiss National Bank, the buyer on the stock market, driving up prices…….zerohedge
Man, doc needs some caffeine or something. 🙂
Jay, Doc has a bad case (and I mean “bad”) of poison ivy—that might account for the lack of enthusiasm.
THAT will do it! Get well!
Doc, hope you get to feeling better soon. That doesn’t sound like a fun way to spend the weekend at all. Thanks for sharing your insights with the KER crew week in and week out nobody what Mr Market decides to serve up. Cheers!
nobody = no matter (but does it really even matter?)
Doc, try rubbing the inside of a banana peel on your poison ivy. Have you sold your NAT yet? It’s been killed. I’m thinking of taking my loss.
Precious Metals Watch – No reason to worry
4 MAY 2017.
Georgette Boele – Co-ordinator FX & Precious Metals Strategy
https://insights.abnamro.nl/en/2017/05/precious-metals-watch-no-reason-to-worry
Bad week for gold but Canadian gold price is still high good for Canadian Gold Miners – http://www.pennyminingstocks.com/canadian-gold-miners/
Thanks for posting that Anon:
I just now got around to watching that embedded BNN video:
Companies discussed include Detour Gold, Richmont Mines, Alamos Gold, Integra Gold, and Kirkland Lake Gold.
Matthew and others – any opinions on Sandstorm please?
Hi Archdeacon (!) Andrew – I follow Sandstorm fairly closely and do trade it off and on. I’ve posted here on the KER about 8 different editorials if you search for SAND up above, then one of the more recent blogs should have some of those on it. You could also search for SANDSTORM and all those comments or articles should surface.
There have been a range of fascinating opinions all around, but there have been some comments on ceo that seem to mirror the main sides of the discussion.
Enjoy!
Thanks Ex.
Here is a good link to the ~RoyaltiesandStreams Panel on ceo and I also linked a few different (SSL) (SAND) (MARL) merger articles here for quick reference:
Nolan Watson remains an inspired and principled CEO.
People glorify some CEOs that are really just great promoters, and knock ceos that actually are great a guiding a company like Nolan. I really respect him a great upcoming younger CEO. Has he made mistakes like Luna Gold in the past? Sure. Did he fix them and end up making a profit for the company…. Yes. Does anyone ever mention that part when they bash him? No.
Nolan is a sharp guy. Sandstorm will do just fine longer term.
I don’t own it but SAND looks like a relative bargain and is a BUY in my book.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAND&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=13&id=p89951092796&a=522297240
Don’t shoot the messenger but there is a good reason SAND sold off and looks so cheap right now. Some of the analysts didn’t like the deal with MARL and dropped the stock. The one I follow didn’t like that it will take until 2023 for the deal to really start paying off and feels that SAND paid too much. It could eventually be a great deal but 5 years is a long way out for a mine that is only PEA status and there could be some negative surprises, especially in Turkey. It could go nowhere for a long time.
Useful comment – thanks Paul.
Yes, if you go to the CEO link I posted there were articles both for and against the Mariana merger. The uncertainty has caused the sell off, and that why I suggested reviewing a few of these linked articles.
I took a look at the situation and stand by my BUY (above).
(EMX) Eurasian Minerals is a Royalty Company that we’ve discussed on here a few different times that I actually like more than some of the streamers. What I like about them is that they are a Prospect Generator that accumulates royalties as they JV their projects and they have a pipeline of producing royalties, near term producing royalties, and some brownfields and greenfields exploration projects under option that will feed the royalty pipeline going down the road.
There are a number of companies using this business model that are well diversified across a few different commodities and in partnerships with a number of other mining companies, similar to the streaming companies.
Just as a heads up they are going to be doing a name change and just got covered at the Metals Investor Forum today.
_______________________________________________________________________
Eurasian Minerals to Change its Name to “EMX Royalty Corporation” and Provides Corporate Update
(Marketwired – May 3, 2017) – (TSX VENTURE:EMX) (NYSE MKT:EMX)
Here’s a good article from Peter Epstein on a different Royalty company (MTA) (EXCFF)
What is Metalla Royalty & Streaming??
by @EpsteinResearch on May 7, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@epsteinresearch/what-is-metalla-royalty-streaming
Just as a reminder….. The Metals Investor Forum was going on yesterday and finishes today. Here is the lineup that shows the different companies that Gwen Preston, John Kaiser, Joe Mazumdar, Jay Taylor, Jordan Roy-Byrne, Eric Coffin, Brien Lundin, and Sean Brodrick are recommending.
We are sure to see some interest in these stocks moving forward as the awareness from these MIF events has been impactful on the last few that they threw.
https://www.metalsinvestorforum.com/assets/docs/Metals-Investor-Forum-May-2017-Agenda.pdf
Gold price long-term analysis, April 2017
MyFinanceTeacher
#Technical Analysis of the Dollar Cycle to the Gold Cycle
Sprott weekly wrap:
Sprott phys silver fund is now ar .57% above NAV.
Macalvany on SGTReport:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0kS6AeuEPTs
Discussing gold, silver, China, Bitcoin,…..and other illegalities in US.
Peter Schiff discusses the Fed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_IcJFMnyK3s
It’s a shame Schiff did not win when he ran for senate. But really, in the corrupt world of politics he never had a chance. Anyone who tells is straight never does.
And he is right on the steaming pile that is Ryancare/Trumpcare which is really Romneycare 3.0 or Bammycare 2.0.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTZ1lzI3Sek&index=10&list=PL9hNbo_Ztnr9kyeIy53_uudXtRPTbOjAw
Despite virtually every Republican at the federal level running on a platform of repealing ObamaCare, the GOP-controlled House of Representatives just voted to retain the bulk of it under the guise of “repeal and replace.” Now, in addition to keeping in place a dizzying array of unconstitutional and destructive federal meddling in healthcare, Republicans have ensured that they will get the blame as costs continue to surge and care becomes increasingly difficult to access. Everyday Americans and constitutional governance, as usual, will be the main losers. Now the fight moves to the Senate, where analysts expect lawmakers to retain even more of ObamaCare.
Chris is right. As usual he is a Temple of wisdom!
If the Frogs elect Rothschild/Soros toady Macrony they sure as hell haven’t suffered enough and they can expect more of the same globalist tyranny.
The beatings will continue until morale improves!
Stateside Report Podcast – May 7, 2017
In this May 7, 2017 episode of the Stateside Report Podcast we take a look back at the week in gold, silver, the base metals and the stocks, then touch on a new purchase I made this week and finally wrap up on news from the Canadian junior exploration sector including: Volcanic Gold Mines $VG, Medgold Resources $MED, Callinex Mines $CNX, Pasinex Resources $PSE, Azimut Exploration $AZM, Camino Minerals $COR, Latin American Minerals $LAT, Komet Resources $KMT, Osisko Mining $OSK, Midnight Sun Mining $MMA, Aldever Resources $ALD, Broadway Gold Mining $BRD, Marathon Gold $MOZ, Erdene Resource Development $ERD, $Anfield Gold $ANF, Adamera Minerals $ADZ, Scandium International Mining $SCY, Tanzanian Royalty Exploration $TNX, and Engold Mines $EGM. We cover gold, silver, lead, zinc, oil, copper, cobalt, uranium, nickel and gas.
Cannabis Wheaton appoints management, advisers
2017-05-05 21:08 ET – News Release
Mr. Chuck Rifici reports
CANNABIS WHEATON THE WORLD’S FIRST MARIJUANA STREAMING COMPANY ANNOUNCES APPOINTMENT OF INDUSTRY LEADING TEAM
Cannabis Wheaton Income Corp. has added new management and advisers, as it seeks to expand its investments in streaming and value creation platform within the cannabis sector.
(Not yet public)
And I thought we’d seen it all….. wow.
ditto, crazy world.
You’ve gotta be kidding me !?
They’ll undoubtedly have a pretty good selection to sell… Head office in Amsterdam ?
Or maybe it’s to chill out the board of Silver Wheaton during these low silver prices…
A non-gold/PM chart person looks at gold. Good for us all to get the view of a non-resource sector person.
GDXJ MASSACRE: Forced Selling Creating EPIC Opportunities — Eric Sprott & Keith Neumeyer
SGTreport – May 7, 2017
“The demand for junior precious metals mining company stocks is soaring, and as a result VanEck’s GDXJ is being forced by stringent regulations into rebalancing – forced selling to reduce positions that have become too large, which is creating tremendous opportunities. As Eric Sprott says, “There’s too much interest. Isn’t the the funny thing? There’s so much interest that the stocks are going down! It’s the most ironic situation that we’ve ever been in, but there will just be new vehicles created. ” Keith Neumeyer & Eric Sprott join me to discuss this, the precious metals manipulation, the problems at the LBMA and much more.”
Thanks Ex…..you don’t seem to miss a thing!
Haha! Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while. 🙂
* It was a pretty interesting interview with Eric and Keith.
* With all the discussion recently around $GDXJ it seemed like a good idea to check out what $SGDJ had under the hood at present.
Security Symbol Weight
OCEANAGOLD CORP. $OGC 8.62%
ALAMOS GOLD INC. CLASS A $AGI 7.57%
IAMGOLD CORP. $IAG 7.50%
ENDEAVOUR MINING CORP. $EDV 6.71%
OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES LTD. $OR 4.90%
COEUR MINING INC. $CDE 4.76%
CENTERRA GOLD INC. $CG 4.67%
NEW GOLD INC. $NGD 4.46%
TOREX GOLD RESOURCES INC. $TXG 3.86%
ELDORADO GOLD CORP. $EGO 3.85%
FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP. $AG 3.71%
GUYANA GOLDFIELDS INC. $GUY 3.52%
SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC. $SSRI 3.41%
FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC. $FSM 2.65%
CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL RESOURCES CORP. $CGG 2.64%
KLONDEX MINES LTD. $KDX 2.58%
PRETIUM RESOURCES INC. $PVG 2.43%
SEMAFO INC. $SMF 2.15%
SILVERCORP METALS INC. $SVM 2.10%
ASANKO GOLD INC. $AKG 2.00%
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC. $NG 1.99%
HARMONY GOLD MINING CO. LTD. $HMY 1.46%
MAG SILVER CORP. $MAG 1.43%
RICHMONT MINES INC. $RIC 1.39%
ALACER GOLD CORP. $ASR 1.34%
TMAC RESOURCES INC. $TMR 1.30%
ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP. $EXK 1.13%
TERANGA GOLD CORP. $TGZ 1.00%
SEABRIDGE GOLD INC. $SA 0.90%
LUNDIN GOLD INC. $LUG 0.81%
SANDSTORM GOLD LTD. $SAND 0.80%
ARGONAUT GOLD INC. $AR 0.71%
PREMIER GOLD MINES LTD. $PG 0.67%
GOLD STANDARD VENTURES CORP. $GSV 0.58%
CONTINENTAL GOLD INC. $CNL 0.41%
STATE STREET INSTITUTIONAL TREASURY PLUS MONEY MARKET FUND $TPIXX 0.02%
CASH AND EQUIVALENTS -0.03%
Ex is amazing. So what’s the deal on MXSG?
Thanks Karl Bergman. Well I did go on a rant about Mexus earlier in the week on CEO, and it is a bit long, but since it is the end of the weekend I’ll post it here.
Cheers!
_____________________________________________________________________
@Excelsior – “$MXSG was THE Top Gold stock based on performance in 2016 period. Few even realize that and hardly any newsletters, or websites, or even contributors here on ceo.ca were even discussing it. In my portfolio last year it was a 57-bagger on the small position that I let ride all the way up, but admittedly I trimmed and traded it a few times and reduced it down greatly as it rose. There were other investors I talked with that actually had the full 140 bagger on it. (At one point from the low to the high it was actually up 14,000% last year #wowzers).
Now, after a run like that it is natural to have a pullback in a stock (but this is no pump-n-dump) and Mexus is greatly misunderstood and undervalued by the marketplace. Granted, they had a few delays getting into #production at the end of 2016, which slowed down the momentum, and the delays stretched into first quarter 2017. That is reminiscent of almost any developer I’ve seen go into production as there are always things that need to be tweaked and optimized when grinding/processing/recovering the metals.
It is also quite typical for the share-price of a new producer to cool off when a company does first Gold pour and the excitement of going into production wanes. Then it takes the marketplace a while to re-rate a company that graduates from being a #developer that spends money, to a #producer that generates revenues.
Yes, I agree that this recent ~water issue will be resolved and the skittish resource investors have over-reacted (like they almost always do at the first sniff of a challenge). They already mentioned they could bring in a water truck temporarily so there would be no issue while they are getting it resolved, but investors like to cherry pick only the problems. The company put out the clarification because investors on some boards were spreading false info, as happens quite often in this resource sector, so people got spooked. Fine by me, as I’ve recently started adding back to the positions I trimmed on the way up.
Look, the $MXSG JV partner #MarMar are previous operators for Major miners and know what they are doing. This is not their first rodeo, but because they are a private company very few investors know their back story. Here’s a quick synopsis on MarMar.
* http://mexusgoldus.com/wp-content/uploads/History-of-MarMar-Holdings.pdf
Leach pad 1 is up and running, leach pad 2 is cued up and they still have leach pads 3 & 4 to add into mix as they continue ramping up production for the balance of the year.
* There are a few reasons for the price/value arbitrage in this stock:
(1) they decided to JV out 50% of the company to a private company MarMar, so that they would have minimal debt. [so there were no news releases about financing options for the market to dissect] to me that was a plus, but it created less visibility.
(2) To keep their costs and listing fees down they don’t have an NYSE listing but instead opted for the OTCQB listing. This is wise as a small company, but it does mean less eyeballs following the story and less liquidity. That’s fine by me, because it allows one to accumulate shares before their story is more obvious to other investors.
(3) They don’t even have a Canadian ticker, and so many resource investors with a #CanadianBias snubbed their noses at it or didn’t have access to trading it in their accounts. There is more to the mining world than just Canada, and it is the exact same mentality and prejudices that cause many canucks to overlook mining companies in Australia, Africa, Europe. Their loss.
(4) Mexus Gold set up the company structure in a non-conventional way, with the CEO calling the shots and without a large board of directors stuffed with expensive executives sucking at the company treasury. Where some see that as weakness, wise investors saw it as a strength because they were less talk – more action and the money went towards development not paying big-wig salaries. Paul Thompson has been serially successful in the US in the businesses he’s run and he’s run private mines before. Without all the red tape that many BODs create, he was able to just make solid decisions, act in a timely way, and he negotiated the JV with MarMar. They didn’t have the long drawn out meetings and voting nonsense that just burns time and money endlessly debating ideas into the ground.
(5) They don’t have a fancy Website or Corporate Presenation. Personally, I could care less about that and am much more interested in their business model, costs, and production profile. However, I have written to Paul Dent in IR about getting a corporate presentation as it would help other investors when looking at their story.
Personally I am looking at their #AISC of $450 an oz, 10,000 tons a day goal, and projected 25 year mine life on ~SantaElena.
Next up they have the ~SanFelix mine that will be coming into production later this year (with 26,000 acres and seven properties with open pits on it). I don’t think the marketplace realizes their size or production profile yet because they don’t have a fancy website or anyone touting their stock (yet).
Lastly they have a collection of other deposits on their Ures Property with Ocho Hermanos and El Scorpio that will be next up in their exploration/development pipeline. It will likely take a few more quarters of improving production results and revenues before most investors wake up to the newest Gold/Silver producer in Mexico that most people have never even heard of.
Mexus is not my favorite miner or investing story, but I included it in the stock picking contest because I believe later in the year, as they continue to bring on more leach pads and then move towards development on SanFelix, investors may wake up to what they are doing. I like their ability to surprise to the upside in the later half of this year. It’s a bit unconventional and a wildcard, but way the hell safer than some exploration play out in moosepasture hoping they find something that gets the snot hyped out of it on Bay Street or Howe Street.
Over time, I’m betting that their story will get out and investors will realize that they have decades of production in front of them. It is not without risk, but since they have hardly any debt and amazing margins, then it’s a risk I’m willing to take. DYODD of course.”
— 5 May 2017, 18:55
Here is the article Mexus put out to silence the chat rooms that were spreading false information about them. They’re fine and producing, and have a temporary work around while they get it all squared away:
Mexus confirms status at Santa Elena project
by @nasdaq on May 1, 2017
“Generators being readied to cross US/Mexican border
1) Our JV partner at the Santa Elena project has been producing gold since early April and performed its first smelting of dore April 22 which represents the first of many more to come.
2) Pad 1 is still producing gold back to the pregnant pond and it is expected that this will continue for about two more weeks. Mineralized material is being placed on Pad 2 and will be ready to leach once the initial soak of Pad 1 is complete. Both ponds at the Santa Elena project were calculated to hold approximately 793,000 gallons with the gold laden pregnant pond being 30% full and the makeup pond being 75% full.
3) The Merrill Crowe plant is currently running at 35% and is increasing weekly. Mine manager Regino Vargas feels it’s better to increase slowly so money and material are not wasted.
4) Mexus’ contract with the land owners at the Santa Elena project allows for usage rights to the water well. Mexus was informed that the permit is for agricultural use only. In addition, the permit as it stands now does not provide for enough water. Marco Martinez, President of MarMar Holdings and Mexus’ partner at the Santa Elena project, states that the solution is to buy water rights from other well owners. If necessary, the water will be trucked in using the company owned 4500 gallon water truck which will solve any water concerns in the short term. This is a minor issue as it is expected that the project will use approximately 10,000 gallons a week at full evaporation. Mr. Martinez goes on to state that he is attending to the current water well use permit and will seek a reclassification. ”
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/mexus-confirms-status-at-santa-elena-project
Hey Ex ..meant to post about those bio plays during the week but have been extremely with my day job…since I don’t know much about the actual science I invest in my bio plays just like a lot of my resources…management is a key obviously but I also look for the ones that have big players paying for the trials like immunovaccine has with Merck,Pfizer and Incyte.In portage,I have found a holding company for many future ipo bio plays.they just did an ipo for biohaven and have 2 more subsidiaries that will eventually go public..as much as I like my resource plays I felt a need to pull some out and put to work elsewhere…
It’s always a good idea to diversify into sectors or sub-sectors and not put one’s whole portfolio at risk by only having exposure to only one focus. Personally, I believe in only investing in individual companies in Sectors that I have some understanding of, and I use ETFs for other industries where I just don’t have the time to do the necessary research homework.
With Biotech I’ll likely only use the ETFs (IBB) and (XBI) and maybe trade the leveraged LABD or LABU.
Cheers mate!
** P.S. – there should be a ton of Zinc Videos coming out soon from the Metals Investor Forum that happened this weekend.
3 of my favorite Zinc Explorers (Tinka Resources, Vendetta Mining, Calinex) and 2 that I’m still reviewing Darnley Bay and the new IPO from Fireweed Zinc.
They’ll have a lot of Gold/Silver mining videos up soon as well, but I like that this group of newsletter writers has been on the Zinc story.
Vendetta Mining Corp – Corporate Presentation – PDAC 2017
Advanced Lead – Zinc Development story in Australia
http://vendettaminingcorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/VTT-presentation-2017-PDAC-FINAL.pdf
Not being a geologist either is the reason I invest in mostly management with resources too.😀….yes looking forward to the Tinka callinex vids
You don’t need to be a geologist to understand the basics of the mining industry, and the important criteria for analyzing a Producer/Developer/or Explorer. Yes, having some understanding of the different commodities mined, what is and is not good grade, the different in oxide & sulfide ore, the different types of deposits, etc.. helps. Understanding different jurisdictions risks/opportunities is another layer.
Reading a balance sheet or analysing technical data on a chart can be done on any company without much understanding in their business model. However,
understanding what makes one company stand out from another in their peer group takes homework, and knowing who their peer group is in first place.
Personally, I’ve spent years researching the Commodities and Energy sectors and feel that I have a much better handle on it than Biotech, Healthcare, tech stocks, manufacturing, retail, insurance, banking, etc…. simply because that is where I’ve put my focus.
Yes, I agree with you that following good management is key, but even that takes homework to know who the A list and B list teams are in a sector, and it’s taken me the better part of decade to figure that out in the mining world. It would be a lot more work to figure out who the good management is in a completely different sector, so in those cases, I buy the ETFs and go with the analysis of those that manage the companies and weightings within.
Fireweed Zinc I haven’t even heard of yet but the name sounds like they are prepared for a backup plan in cannibas
Ha! funny. Actually , they are serious about base metals mining (and don’t have any interest in the cannabis industry). Fireweed is willowherb flowering plant prolific in that area.
I talk with Brandon on their management team from time to time on ceo.ca.
They are a legitimate new Zinc-Lead-Silver company in the Yukon. They’ll be listing under the Ticker (FWZ) and Eric Coffin is helping get the word out about them.
Were you lucky enough to be a participant in the ipo???
Nay. I’m just watching it for now.
Abitibi Royalties Canadian Malartic Mine Royalties & Corporate Update
(Marketwired – May 8, 2017) – (TSX VENTURE:RZZ)
Odyssey Zones Exploration Update (3% NSR)
Near Pit Targets Update (2-3% NSR)
Jeffrey and Barnat Extension Deposits Permitting Update (3% NSR)
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/abitibi-royalties-canadian-malartic-mine-royalties
Slowly but surely the story continues to be good. Eventually rzz will be a $30+ buyout. Makes the gzz at .32 look cheap with all the assets it holds.
+32 Agreed.
Here are a few more #Seasonality Charts that seem to have lined up well with 2017:
#Gold Futures – 20 Year Chart ending 12/31/2014
http://charts.equityclock.com/seasonal_charts/futures/FUTURE_GC1.PNG
#GOLD – 15 year Seasonality chart [2001 – 2015]
From Zeal LLC
(AXU) (AXR) Alexco Reports First Quarter 2017 Results
May 8, 2017 /CNW/
* First Quarter Highlights
> March 31, 2017 unrestricted cash and cash equivalent position of $20.8 M and net working capital of $23.5 M compared to $20.4 M and $23.4 M, respectively, at December 31, 2016.
> Alexco announced an updated mineral resource estimate for the Bermingham deposit, expanding the indicated mineral resources from 5.2 million ounces to 17.3 million ounces while inferred mineral resources increased from approximately 0.7 million ounces to 5.5 million ounces of contained #silver.
> Alexco announced the release of an independent technical report dated March 29, 2017 with an effective date of January 3, 2017 entitled “Preliminary Economic Assessment #PEA of the Keno Hill Silver District Project, #Yukon, Canada” and announced an amended silver purchase agreement with $SLW Silver Wheaton Corp.
> Sold investments in marketable securities for proceeds of $2 M and a pre-tax realized ~gain of $1.2 M.
> AEG recognized ~revenues of $1.9 M for a gross profit of $0.5M and a gross margin of 28.4%.
>Alexco entered into a non-binding Letter Agreement with Banyan Gold Corp. to option up to 100% of Alexco’s McQuesten property located in the KHSD.
Alexco’s Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Clynt Nauman said, “With the publication of the updated PEA incorporating the amended SPA, Alexco is launching into the balance of 2017 squarely focused on moving forward with underground access to the high grade Bermingham deposit in anticipation of extensive underground exploration drilling, as well as getting started on a +12,000 meter surface exploration program in areas proximal to the Bermingham discovery. Equipment rebuilds, mill, camp and infrastructure upgrades will also be completed alongside a prefeasibility level study, as we move Keno Hill back toward a final #production decision.”
http://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/alexco-reports-first-quarter-2017-results-621586163.html
TRUMPED AGAIN……Jarid Kushner in China ….making deals for the family……….promise of citizenship with $500,000 investment in NY property..zerohedge
(SGN) Scorpio Gold Commences Milling of Lode-Star Ore at its Goldwedge Property
Vancouver, May 8, 2017
“Scorpio Gold Corporation previously announced in the Company’s February 21, 2017 news release, testing was conducted on Lode Star ore delivered to the Goldwedge #milling facility. The Goldwedge mill is a fully permitted, 400 ton per day facility with an associated gravity recovery circuit.”
“The Lode Star ore was separated into three batches and processed through the milling circuit, while adjustments were made to the wet mill cyclones prior to each batch. These cyclone adjustments affect the final particle size and provide a range for grind size versus recovery and associated throughput. This testing, when analyzed, will provide the baselines for metallurgical recoveries and mill throughput data to support the economics of #processing Lode Star’s ore. The coarse #gold component of $LSMG Lode-Star’s material was recovered by the gravity circuit.
“Further testing will be conducted on the ~tailings to determine the potential economics of shipping tailings to the Company’s Mineral Ridge heap leach operation for final recovery of cyanide-leachable precious metals. Metallurgical testing of the batched product will be conducted by Kappes Cassiday of Reno, Nevada.”
Gold Stocks & Silver Nearing Relief Rally
JORDAN ROY-BYRNE CMT, MFTA – 05/04/17
https://thedailygold.com/gold-stocks-silver-nearing-relief-rally/
Jordan Roy-Byrne: Gold and Silver Markets Unsettled
Collin Kettell May 5, 2017
Category: Palisade Videos
http://palisade-research.com/jordan-roy-byrne-gold-and-silver-markets-unsettled/
Speculators Flee Gold And Silver – Is It Time To Buy?
May 6, 2017 – Hebba Investments
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4070073-speculators-flee-gold-silver-time-buy?ifp=0
The New Case For Gold: Same As It Ever Was
May 8, 2017
silver CoT commercial shorts came way down, but I think they will go even lower by the next FOMC in mid-June. I expect another $1-2 to come off of silver price between now and then. It’s too easy for the shorts at this point. I do expect some sort of a bounce up to reset the RSI a bit, but it could be very short lived.
(AR) (ARNGF) ARGONAUT GOLD EXTENDS MINERALIZATION ON RECENTLY ACQUIRED FRESNILLO MINERAL CONCESSION ADJACENT TO THE EL CASTILLO MINE
(May 8, 2017)
Pete Dougherty, President & CEO commented: “With the acquisition of Fresnillo’s San Juan concession and the drill results so far, we expected to increase the life of the El Castillo mine. Drilling results to date are positive and indicate strong potential to expand the current pit limits initially into the North Target area. This previously announced acquisition also allows us to extract a large, known wedge of economic mineralization that lies on our side of the original concession boundary, as we move the pit wall back onto the newly acquired ground.”
http://www.argonautgold.com/news_events/news/news_release/index.php?content_id=333
Current Shanghai gold price at $1240.50
up slightly from Friday.
London gold, silver and palladium all down slightly from Friday.
Indian gold about $1242.9
(Varies sjighly with location)
Here’s a way to track over 100 Crypto-Currencies: (I didn’t realize there were that many)
CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations
watching Bix Weir this morning, eh?
I disagree with his thoughts on the subject, in that I prefer something tangible.
To describe cryptos as congealed electricity just does not work for me.
Someone else had posted it on ceo and then I was just startled that there were 100 different crypto currencies. I don’t own any personally, but clearly there is some interest from the investing marketplace or there wouldn’t be so many.
I believe central banks will develop their own blockchain technology and slowly ban all the cryptocurrencies.
I simply cannot see governments allowing control to slip away.
I thus consider all cryptos as potential minefields.
Nice technology, but personal danger of being crippled by it without warning.
CFS – good thoughts. I’ve also read that a large portion of this interest has been in Asia, and it seems precarious to hold wealth in digital currency that the government of China could put the brakes on with little warning.
The idea is fascinating, and will likely live on, but the lofty values at present may not.
I totally agree with that CFS
Marlin Gold Confirms the Discovery of a New Gold Zone at the Commonwealth Project
May 4, 2017 —
“Marlin Gold Mining Ltd. (TSX-V: MLN) is pleased to report drilling results from its wholly owned Commonwealth silver and gold project in Cochise County, Arizona.”
Akiba Leisman, Executive Chairman and Interim CEO states that, “based solely on the discovery hole, the interpretation of the Footwall Zone was that of a high grade, but small target. Now that we have drill tested the Footwall Zone with 12 core holes, and hit significant intercepts on seven of these holes, we believe the potential of this target has increased substantially. As a result, we will continue drill testing down dip and along strike. Additionally, the better understanding of this new gold zone on Pearce Hill provides us an analog that we can look for elsewhere on our approximately 3,600 acres of privately owned land using targets developed from our geochemistry and geophysics programs.”
SILVER INTERIM UPDATE AFTER SILVER LONGS “TAKEN TO THE WOODSHED”…
Clive Maund – published Sunday, May 07, 2017
Thanks, Ex.
I’m still accumulating physical.
Thank you for this. Your hard work is appreciated.
Looking forward to the show.