If you don’t trust these markets Rick doesn’t blame you
As Rick Ackerman may have higher targets for the US markets he still doesn’t trust them longer term. With too many warning signs and negatives we discuss the major problems and how to be protected.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Yes, they will keep printing and, if necessary, they will become the spender of last resort if the real economy doesn’t want to play. Bob Hoye’s “pushing on a string” problem won’t stop the monetary madness by “taking away the printing press” as he claims.
Keep in mind that the deflationists have been net-wrong for a very long time and that Hoye was extremely bearish on silver and short the silver miners in August 2010 just before silver flew from the teens to almost $50. At the same time, I borrowed from my broker to buy the likes of AXU — and I almost never carry any margin debt. wrong-footed shorts clearly played a huge role in silver’s spike. There were guys positioned like Hoye before the move began and then there were the top-callers that showed up at $30 (like David Morgan). So the shorts were fuel for the entire rise.
+1 Thanks for the history lesson.
++1 proof yet again that expert opinion means little as anyone investing off the silver chart did not miss that big run…just as all those long US equities while the experts continue calls of a crash for years now almost as long as those calling for gold to rocket higher,lol
Agreed about most of the “gurus” being way off track in 2010-2011 when Silver continued to surge on the short squeeze and ran to $49. Then when people should have been selling, these same gurus came in and got bullish at the exact wrong time leading their subscribers into the brier patch.
143 plus Gurus were WRONG………. 🙂 Except IRISH……
Just want to add that Hoye knows plenty and I continue to be very interested in what he has to say. But no one should stop thinking when an expert starts talking.
Bob Hoye is almost always very interesting with his broadcasts. He can though be really wrong on some things. He was expecting the US stock market to roll over in late 2009, 2010 and 2011 for another leg down like in 1931. He then changed it to waiting for the next economic cycle downturn for a breakdown in the markets. This has not happened so far and Dow and S&P500 went to decisive new highs.
I think both Bob and Rick underestimate the power of fed manipulation of money supply, interest rates, bond markets, and … everything else probably.
Something is weird with the whole game with the Fed balance sheet up so much and the money multiplier down so much since 20019 for such a long time until now. It’s a new monetary structure somehow. Perhaps it has no precedent and we should expect the unexpected.
If (when?) we get another big deflationary debt and stock market crash, I think the central bankers will just double down again on money creation one way or another, perhaps outright buying each crashing market until they own everything, all financial assets or most of them and then they will control everything in the earthly sphere. The whole world bought with a printing press. Maybe that is their final goal?
Fed balance sheet up so much and the money multiplier down so much since 2009 I meant!
Yet, for some reason, the deflationists don’t learn. Bob doesn’t even distinguish between a fiat “senior currency” and a gold-backed one.
As an aside, in the spring of ’13, I remember Al and Jeff Deist saying that stocks were in a bubble (the Dow was 13,000+ at the time), and I said that they were overvalued but not a bubble. I also said that the Dow chart pointed to over 19,000 – little did I know that it would go significantly higher.
Matthew:
Much of the credit/blame for that silver spike belongs to Eric Sprott who was pimping his Silver ETF to beat the band. He convinced people to pay a 26% premium over the price of silver for his ETF.
It was a sucker’s rally the whole way much like bitcoin and the pseudo-currencies today.
Robert, it’s a closed-end fund. I’m sure it will see the same premiums again as the average retail guy gladly pays up for it’s perceived attributes. It will become one helluva shorting opportunity someday.
Fwiw, Sprott’s silver trust actually reached a premium of 34.22% on Jan. 9, 2012. Most investors were apparently even more bullish more than eight months after silver had peaked. That’s quite a bearish divergence when you consider that silver was $20 lower at the beginning of 2012 ($29 vs $49).
Matthew:
I never did understand that particular action in January of 2012. It was an outlier. But the premium on the Sprott ETF makes a great sentiment indicator. By the way, sentiment on the dollar appears to mark a turn and Bob Hoye is very positive on the dollar. We could have a black swan event around the dollar.
BUT WHEN………….will it come crashing down…..same game for 4 yrs…..this market should have corrected at 10,000 dow, now 21,000, ……next stop 42,000 dow….. 🙂
BUT , I agree with RICK
Basement dwellers, can now save all their money ……they have no expenses, they can now invest in the market…and buy bitcoin…………. 🙂
the fed is not worried about wages……..but, they better hope the sheeple do not find out the names of who owns the fed…………..
epstein morning:
https://youtu.be/89N4k9hV__M?t=32
Bix Weir talking silver:
bix is making his money off books and tapes………..jmo
Bix is buying junk silver……..putting in his hiddy hole………Rome ended, but, it is still around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=chRBBXLowrQ
Harry Dent loses bet to Jeff Clark.
Harry……the great guru…….
I am a bit thick here – and I know that Rick knows far more about this than I do – but TLT has about a 13% upside to the highs of last year at best.
But listening to Rick you get the impression that TLT could be going much higher. I get the impression that TLT is more of a safety play than a capital gain play?
So….Rick talks the problems as well as anybody. Warnings of SS and pensions collapsing have been good reading since the late 90’s. For years things couldn’t get any worse, yet they continue to muddle along and actually get worse. The thing all analysts are missing is the tipping point, if there is one. When will we sit down to our table of consequences? That’s really all that matters since trends can latterly go on for generations, as many of them have.
Buying TLT is about as exciting as watching oil based paint dry. And it may be another 30 years before the SHTF, if it ever does? A concern more timely might be trying to figure out which civilizations will be on the receiving end of the $340 billion of weaponry that Trump OKed for the Saudis.
I think the difference this time is that we are now effectively at zero interest rates. So pension schemes are either bidding up the bonds higher and higher to ensure their assets outweight the liabilities, alternatively they are also doing the same in the wider stock market with the blue chip stocks causing a divergence from the fundamentals of the business. Hence you have divi stocks with p/e of 30,40,50 in many cases. The tipping point is when either the pension schemes have to pay out, causing an unwinding of the assets, or if the company have to top up the schemes decreasing profits and /or decreasing the share prices or worse the dividend yields. Basically there will be a limit. However if the underlying companies can get away borrowing at near zero rates to pay dividends etc…. the game can continue longer, till the day it doesn’t. We know there is a breaking point….but can’t figure out when. The longer this continues, the more distorted and dangerous the end result becomes….we could see catastophic losses during the unwinding as all schemes race to unwind first to front run the other……
literally instead of latterly!
Bill Murphy on Silver:
https://youtu.be/RF9Iq9hGees?t=39
wash and rinse……..jmo
London is short of silver, US not so short.
Wait until London closes…..price will drop.
Are you just talking today……?
For some reason there has been a rise in Middle East buying of both gold and silver in London recently. I do not know how long this will continue.
The Saudis have been buying gold since 1970’s……gold for oil….not just the dollar.
all the stories are now coming to the surface……
I think this has something to do more with Dubai setting up an International exchange.
check out article at bullionstar.com……
Americans are going to wake up and realize that Ft. Knox is in Arabia…..
Professor……..nothing is as it appears………… 🙂
Murphy has the best track record of anyone on the planet when it comes to silver as he is 100% wrong 100% of the time….what a waste of a pair of cheap shoes!
j……..agree 100%…….on the 100%
silver stealer.net……….historically speaking….
Manchester Bomber is son of Libyan immigrants:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/23/salman-abedi-named-manchester-suicide-bomber-know/
I can’t imagine why any Libyan might hold an irrational hatred for the West and vent it in a misguided fashion.
Whatever is going on, I’m sure no soul-searching on our part is called for. He probably just hated our freedom.
GH:
Actually it would be quite rational. To fight terrorism, we need to stop creating terrorists. If there are 65 million refugees in the world and only one in 10,000 turns to terror, it means there are 6,499 more suicide bombers out there. That’s a lot of terror.
While I don’t agree with the terrorists, I do understand why they are so pissed.
What I do not understand is the logic and morality of terrorists that seems to imply it is reasonable to kill innocent people that have nothing to do with your reason to become a terrorist.
If they are mad at the politicians of a country or the behavior of a country, they should logically go after the politicians or leaders of that country.
Of course I agree with you, CFS. One wonders why no prominent war mongers with a say in policy-making are ever targeted. And a follow-on wonder, what portion of these attacks are false flags targeting peons in order to get mass support for the warmongers’ policies? A non-zero figure, I think it is safe to say.
The difference I have with you is that I believe we need to focus on the root of the problem, and that root is not the muslim terrorists. I also think most of the things you say about the ‘Scum terrorist attacks’ and ‘Imams condemning the violence’ could just as easily be pointed in the opposite direction. In terms of magnitude there is no comparison between the terror the ‘Christian’ West has directed toward the Muslim world, and vice versa.
CFS:
You have to be kidding. Right?
The purpose of terrorism is to terrorize.
Why would you attack armed police or the military when you can target children? We have 22 people killed on an average weekend in Iraq and no one cares but one 8 year old is killed in England and everyone is aghast.
I feel sad that even a 23 year old feels it is worth dying to make a statement. And the response from the idiot politicians is to claim that the bomber was a coward. How stupid can you get? It takes a lot of courage to blow yourself up.
The attack on Libya was a war crime by every measure. The US, Israel, the UK and France deposed the most responsible leader in all of Africa and turned the country into a shit hole of crime and corruption. If the world was reasonable we would have a war crimes trial and hang all of the bastards who launched that war after a fair and swift trial. No one on this board cares a lick about the people of Libya but they cry over 22 Brits killed in response.
Robert, yeah, I instantly regretted that word after I posted. Would have been perfect minus that one word.
Glad to hear you “regretted that word”, GH.
And, other than that word, +1. I agree with you. My first impression with Manchester was “false flag”… and that ‘first impression’ has been cropping up repeatedly since 1995.
False Flag………..Bix weir had some info this morning concerning this subject, …..utube took the evidence down already…….
Seems the Manchester bombing story was to take attention away from SETH RICH STORY…
Keep the sheeple asleep side tracked……
CFS/GH/DC:
BRITISH INTELLIGENCE WARNED TONY BLAIR OF MANCHESTER-LIKE TERRORISM IF THE WEST INVADED IRAQ
Jon Schwarz
May 23 2017, 4:58 p.m.
FORMER BRITISH PRIME Minister Tony Blair has yet to say anything about Monday’s heinous, nihilistic suicide bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in Manchester, England. According to current reporting, the attack has been claimed by ISIS and was carried out by a 22-year-old man born in Manchester to Libyan refugees.
But when Blair does speak, we can be certain he won’t mention one key fact: Before the 2003 invasion of Iraq led by the U.S. and U.K., he was forcefully and repeatedly warned by Britain’s intelligence services that it would lead to exactly this type of terrorist attack — and he concealed these warnings from the British people, instead claiming the war would reduce the risk of terrorism.
The US/UK/France/Israel/Turkey created the terrorists and to end the terror you need to first of all stop creating terrorists. CFS, you keep attacking the symptom and ignoring the cause.
Islamic terrorism is not the cause, it is the effect. Western terrorism is the cause.
ditto Bob
It’s pretty clear after today’s action that $gold topped last week, just as G. Savage predicted. Now the drop into the ICL begins in ernest.
Personally, I am expecting a fairly rapid plunge below the neckline of the H&S perhaps into the FOMC, then a sucker’s rally back to to test the neckline into late June, and then a final plunge into the ICL in mid to late July.
Well, that suckers rally sounds like a money making opportunity – just as this bounce turned out to be for those who anticipated it rather than telling everyone to stay out.
I think AXU gets to 0.90 before this is over. It’s possible the 100 or 200 WMA at 1.13 and 1.08 respectively halt the decline, but I think they will scare the hell out of longs before letting it rise and the surest way of doing that is dropping it below the key long term MAs to get a nice purge.
If there is a scenario where Silver miners sell off hard and AXU goes down to $.90, then I’ll be deploying all the dry powder I can in that environment. As stated the other day, Alexco has a big 2nd half of 2017 ahead of them with many catalysts.
Fed chair in San Fran…….tell high school students , gold is irrelevant ……Williams, likes the dollar……. jdmineset.
someone should tell Williams……the Saudis like gold……and have been taking our gold in trade since the 70’s…..gold is going higher……for sure……….when , who knows.
I bet Soros knows…………
He wants to get his grubby little hands on the gold depository in TEXAS
Galane Gold Ltd. Announces Proposed Acquisition of Vantage Goldfields Limited
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GG.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=10&dy=0&id=p91168865723&a=477462853
***I have a lot of shares in Galane.
look for a big gap down below the 50 and 200 dma in gold soon.
Off-topic: the view that Brazilian President Dilma Roussef was ousted in a legislative coup last year by corrupt politicians fearing she might be too honest is now vindicated.
Only Temer’s Removal and New Elections Can Save Brazil’s Democracy
By Glenn Greenwald
“…the two key figures driving Dilma’s impeachment were just revealed to be hardened criminals, with documentary evidence — audio recordings, videos, and online chats…”
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/47100.htm
Did Bunge corp ever scream up!
And BRZU scream down!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BRZU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50934905474
GDX has a potential double top in the works that could easily send it down to fill the May 10th gap:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=13&id=p05193808970&a=525515551
There we go. Let the collapse begin. Head and shoulders in gold is almost guaranteed to trigger. GLD headed to 110. From there, I guess we will see.
Heck, the bollingers on $gold monthly are tight enough now to sustain a real collapse that will be the final nail in the gold bull dream.
You’re getting carried away, Spanky. The gold bull is just fine.
There you go again Matthew…thimble and bucket in hand to fight the 3 alarm fire…
There you go again, Gator… taking a fire hose to every false alarm…
G. Savage has nailed the tops so far and he is expecting a left translated daily cycle in gold. That means we are going below $1214 as a start. Every intermediate cycle needs at least one left translated daily cycle and gold hasn’t had one yet. Once $1214 breaks, the H&S will have triggered and down we go in a panic. Gary is expecting at least 20-25 days from now before a bottom.
Conversely, the stock market will probably be making a moonshot in the next 30 days.
Gary jumps the gun all the time when it comes to guesses about how low or how high something is going to go.
I think Gary’s guru rating was around 50%………..take it from there……
Rating in 2012 for Gary’s guru rating was…….45%…..
Way to go, Trump!
http://fortune.com/2017/05/23/dol-fiduciary-rule-broker-advice/
This is really going to crimp the style of “financial advisers” who recommend investments like non-traded REITS that give the brokers 5% or more kick-backs for recommendations.
as I mentioned last week TNX is leading the reversal in yen and gold as it continues today…oh those manipulators.lol
It is scary how much the monthly charts for $XJY and GDX look alike. $xjy is hanging on by its fingernails. It is quite possible June will be a bloodbath for $XJY as well as GDX. THe monthly $XJY chart looks very very similar to the set up in late 2012, just prior to the yen’s epic collapse.
The monthly stochastics for GDX are so close to being oversold, it basically guarantees that this month and/or next month will close red. The same is true for $XJY. IMO, there is zero chance that the May low holds. Only question is will the December low hold.
It’s possible that GDX and $XJY can flip on dime and rally hard to avert the stochastics from reaching oversold, but I wouldn’t bet a dime on it. There is almost no upside here in the short run. At best we go sideways for a couple more months. At worst, we get a collapse in yen (and miners).
If you are bullish on the miners, you are de facto bullish yen. There is almost no difference from a directional perspective, just the magnitude of the moves.
Isn’t it a coincidence that yen is down hard today.
There is no way on earth yen is going to rally from here. $usdjpy is in a new bull market, which means commodities and miners are likely doomed. Go ahead and bet that the correlation breaks down. You would be going against 20 years of price action.
spanky try and keep your feet planted on the ground as the massive decline in 2012 $yen was brought on by the BOJ action devaluing yen from 130 to 79 sending gold down $600 from $1700 thats currently not in the cards….just as every up trend shouldnt be regarded as here we go to $5000 gold nor should every decline suggest a deep decline
$USDJPY has a golden cross on the monthly chart. The first one in at least 20+ years.
A drop may not be imminent in gold, but based on history, it has one hell of a headwind right now.
The bollingers on the $USDJPY monthly chart are still pretty wide, which suggest we may consolidate around the 20 month MA for some months as those bands come in. But the monthly chart is unquivocally bullish. The stochastics are over 50 and have not yet reached overbought. That is not good news for metals in the short run.
Rick is right. The Demorats just passed huge tax increases in Colliefornia supposedly for the roads but it will go straight for the pensions.
I put ina lot of low-ball bids in on mining companies at about 5%-10% below their opening price each day. Out of a dozen or so tries each day, I only pick up about 1 purchase per week, so there are not a lot of desperate sellers.
http://www.myrmikan.com/pub/Myrmikan_Research_2016_11_25.pdf
This is an older paper, but the dollar is now falling and pages 6 & 7 are becoming relevant.
http://www.excellonresources.com/_resources/presentation/corporate-presentation.pdf
Your attention is brought to IRR on page 20.
p 20 of the pdf, 19 of the presentation.
I hope for silver to drop until options expiry, next Tuesday, but what will be, will be.
A very impressive 118% IRR. I’ve been following Excellon for some time and am a current shareholder. It seemed prudent to trim back the allocation a little on today’s surge, but I’ll buy that portion right back if we get some more weakness this summer.
Their dewatering project is almost complete and now,and they’ll be accessing the higher grade parts of the deposit. The market is just waking up to the fact that they’ll be transitioning away from the old lower grade stockpiles they have been processing the last 2 years, and finally getting to the good stuff.
They rode out the bear market perfectly and saved their high-grade assets for the next 3-5 years. Well executed, and they are continuing to explore to extend their mine life. This has been the market’s trepidation, but they are on trend with many large deposits in Mexico. Excellon is one of the highest grade Silver miners in Mexico, and with the deposit still open in many directions, there is more to be found. I anticipate their 2017 drilingl program as much as I anticipate their production profile improving.
politicians protecting their pensions?
http://www.latimes.com/business/technology/la-fi-tn-google-ads-tracking-20170523-story.html
Big Brother is watching you, and it is not the Government.
This month and June are going to end up being red candles on the GDX monthly chart, IMO. June could be a very big red candle too. Expect a reversal starting end of June, early July (based on cycles).
Would the government let Jesus cure cancer?
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2017/05/23/would-the-government-let-jesus-cure-cancer/
What major stock market tops look like.
https://www.seeitmarket.com/what-major-stock-market-tops-look-like-investing-16889/
SILVER’S MIXED SIGNALS MAY BE SUGGESTING TO BUY IT – ANALYST
By Wall St. Whisperer 13h ago
“What’s going on with silver?…”
https://www.marketslant.com/article/silvers-mixed-signals-may-be-suggesting-buy-it-analyst
AURYN’S CHAIRMAN ON JUNIORS, GOLDCORP, AND WORLD’S LARGEST GOLD DISCOVERY PROGRAM
By Soren K.Group 17h ago
“An interview with Chairman of TSX listed AUG gives some insights into current projects, the evolving perception of Junior miners, and Goldcorp’s investment.”
China’s Zijin pays off stake in Ivanhoe’s Congo copper project
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 15 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/chinas-zijin-pays-off-stake-ivanhoes-congo-copper-project/
Low Copper prices force Codelco to revise underground expansion of Chuquicamata
Cecilia Jamasmie | about 17 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/low-copper-prices-force-codelco-revise-underground-expansion-chuquicamata/
Blow to iron ore price as Chinese steelmakers opt for scrap
Frik Els | about 14 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/blow-iron-ore-price-chinese-steelmakers-opt-scrap/
Gold Miner Underperformance: A Prelude To A Rally?
by @Goldfinger on May 24, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/gold-miner-underperformance-a-prelude-to-a-rally
Goldfinger’s thinking is in line with mine and goes well with my reverse symmetry chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&yr=6&mn=2&dy=0&id=p99884150139&a=501128971
Yes. He is using the Stan Weinstein 4 stages model, but the charts and expected trends line up nicely. Thanks.
+1.Thanks
I have a dichotomy. On the one hand, I agree with Rick’s sage knowledge, but on the other hand, I believe politicians will attempt to muddle through, forever.
They will try to print new money forever.