Revisiting the Dow:Gold Ratio

October 30, 2017

Doc joins me today to look back at the Dow to Gold ratio. We have been watching the monthly chart and the 200 month moving average. Unfortunately last month the MA was broken and this month has keep going the wrong way for metals investors. This break is making Doc reconsider his time frame on when the net pop will be. Listen in to find out what his new time frame is.

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    Oct 30, 2017 30:34 AM

    Way OFF topic…….But…..
    Goldmoney selected for cryptocurrency processing
    2017-10-30 09:39 ET – News Release

    Mr. Tommaso Chiabra of Royal Yacht reports


    Royal Yacht Brokers SARL (RYB), a leading luxury yacht brokerage and rental agency, will begin accepting cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, national cryptocurrencies, such as CryptoRuble, and precious metals, such as gold and platinum, as payment for its services.

    The company believes that as cryptocurrencies are being increasingly accepted in the real estate market, it is only a matter of time before further adoption will be witnessed in luxury and lifestyle markets. RYB is proud to be the first within the maritime industry to embrace this payment innovation.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:38 AM

      I’ll be buying my schooner with ready cash when I sell some NSRPF@1000 per share.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:36 AM

    Silvercrest recovers avg of 98.9% Au at Las Chispas
    2017-10-30 09:13 ET – News Release

    Mr. Eric Fier reports

    Oct 30, 2017 30:39 AM


    Osisko Mining Inc. has completed its first underground blast on schedule at the exploration ramp at its 100-per-cent-owned Windfall Lake gold project located in Urban township, Abitibi, Quebec.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:54 AM

    Paul Manafort judges: Who are Deborah A. Robinson and Amy Berman Jackson?

    CLINTON CRONIES, of course……..donors to the crooked Hillary’s campaign, but they would never recuse themselves, of course.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:58 AM

    please tell me this is not happening! If so much money has been pumped into stocks/real estate….maybe its time to sell my Novo and jump onto the last massive blow-off phase of this Fed-pimped-stock-bubble? Everyone is selling this final blow-off phase narrative right now. I guess that’s my gut telling me we have about a year before we hit a wall. This is the same feeling I had back in late 2006-7 when I was living in NYC….so much excitement throughout society… many positive thoughts about the endless expansion of the real estate market. I remember laughing about the insanity with my Swiss-banker neighbor. He said that this market is “not right” anymore and that not everyone can own their own home or there would be NO market. I’ve felt the same way about the U.S stock market for the last year. I guess main-street will need to be left holding the bag again before we see the end of this.
    Maybe Avi is right that we will need a nice shake out in January to lay the table for the final rocketing stage.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:09 PM

      Confused; there is no way I’ll touch the stock and real estate market now. I would rather gradually continue to acquire PM, uranium, energy and other resource stocks over the next year. I’ve seen all this before and I’m a contrarian and will move my capital into unloved areas. I may not see gains for some time but I know that there is not a lot of downside to what I’m buying on a % basis as opposed to assets that have seen continual upward momentum.

        Oct 30, 2017 30:08 PM

        that sounds like a solid plan to me. Anfield on .4 cents!

    Oct 30, 2017 30:01 AM

    So, a year from now is when ya wanna be in JRs.
    I guess ya could buy all year, I wonder if the Yuan for oil/gold will be having an affect by then.

    A person could buy cryptos for the next year, I wonder which will pay more.

    Interesting posts CFS.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:51 AM

    You will be able to buy juniors in a year in 5 years and in 10 years buying not a problem it s selling because GOLD AND SILVER is a dead market and has been since 2011

      Oct 30, 2017 30:17 PM

      You said the same thing at the 2015/16 lows before the best year in decades. The reo indicator has generally been a good one for marking tradeable lows.

        Oct 31, 2017 31:45 AM

        You also have to be exposed to the PM’s if you want that one or two week pop of 50-100% in you jr s when the general markets take a 5-10% hit. It won’t need much to move the needle when that does occur. And if you can’t know when that might happen best to play the turkey roll and hold and not look at your computer screen every day. Obviously easier said than done. If you are a trader, then you operate on a completely different time-line.

          Oct 31, 2017 31:26 AM

          You are correct and the big-picture bullishness is far from being threatened so buying weakness makes a lot more sense than selling strength.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:24 PM

    the projections of PM action do seem to be getting further and further into the future.

    When I originally decided 5-10% PMs, my thinking was the payoff would begin in 2020, so for me, no panic yet. lol

    Oct 30, 2017 30:46 PM

    I purchased Weed (Canopy Growth) a few days ago just under $12. Today it was up 20% earlier and now 17.6%. Snap is bouncing back up too and now near $16. I sold out too low before and bought back at 14.10.
    Constellation brands has taken a major stake in Canopy – Cannabis producer.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:25 PM

      I think the whole complex of pot companies went up today, my guess is potstocks will be good all the way to next July at least, then could could move up due to incredible sales.
      (non potsmokers have no idea, and the heads dont generally buy

      100% of inventory for all existing growers in Canada will be sold.
      Imagine the value of any company that is guaranteed to sell 100% of inventory.
      And it could take a few years to produce enough to meet demand.

      unlike PMs, where all demand has/is being met, and the price comes down, funny how that works.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:12 PM

    Canopy Growth Establishes Groundbreaking Strategic Relationship With
    Constellation Brands
    Canada NewsWire
    SMITHS FALLS, ON, Oct. 30, 2017
    SMITHS FALLS, ON, Oct. 30, 2017 /CNW/ – Canopy Growth Corporation (TSX: WEED)
    (“Canopy Growth” or the “Company”) is proud to announce that it has agreed to
    enter into a strategic relationship with the leading total beverage alcohol
    supplier in the United States, Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ and STZ.B),
    (“Constellation” and together with Canopy Growth, the “Companies”).
    Constellation is a leading international producer and marketer of a
    fast-growing, high-performing portfolio of beer, wine and spirits brands. As
    part of the strategic relationship, an affiliate of Constellation will invest
    approximately C$245 million in Canopy Growth in exchange for common shares
    that, following the transaction, will represent a 9.9% equity share in the
    Company. An equal number of common share purchase warrants will also be made
    available to Constellation, the terms of which are outlined below.
    This strategic investment is a sign of confidence in Canopy Growth’s reliable
    track record and vision for responsible yet aggressive market expansion as the
    world’s leading cannabis company.
    “In Constellation we have a strategic ally that will join us as we lead the

    Oct 30, 2017 30:17 PM

    Congressmen Press the U.S Mint for Action on Counterfeit Gold and Silver Coins

    Congressmen Alex Mooney (R-WV) and Frank Lucas (R-OK) today delivered a formal letter to the United States Mint and Secret Service, urging aggressive action on the growing problem of high-quality counterfeits of U.S. precious metals coins entering the country from China and elsewhere.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:19 PM

    Royal Canadian Mint-stamped gold wafer appears to be fake

    The Royal Canadian Mint is investigating how a sealed, “pure gold” wafer with proper mint stampings may in fact be a fake.

    The one-ounce gold piece, which was supposed to be 99.99 per cent pure, was purchased by an Ottawa jeweller on Oct. 18 at a Royal Bank of Canada branch. Yet tests of the bar show it may contain no gold at all.

    When neither the mint nor RBC would take the bar back, jeweller Samuel Tang contacted CBC news.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:29 PM

      Ya, I can see that news getting people to jump on the PM bandwagon.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:19 PM

    One of the most telegraphed plunges ever. Look for a sucker’s rally to take us possibly back to the 100 or 200 dma. It’s setting up one heck of a plunge down into the $18’s. Of course I expect the usual suspects to be hootin and hollerin that the low is in during this sucker’s rally.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:57 PM

      Spanky, the hootin and hollerin has always come from you and a few others who also don’t have a clue.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:19 PM

    Excuse me, but when was I hootin and hollerin about miners? Praying they don’t plunge into the abyss or that they will be basing for years isn’t hootin and hollerin. I was skeptical of the July rally, and I have been proven right in at least the silver miners, which are leading the way down. All that remains is one last little bounce, and then the coup de grace, which will shake most to their core over the next two months. Silver is going to get absolutely pummeled. Could that be the low for the next 20 years, sure, but its going to be brutal for anyone long (myself included).

      Oct 30, 2017 30:30 PM

      Spanky, ALL YOU DO is bearish hootin and hollerin. Does that not count because it is bearishly stupid?

      Oct 30, 2017 30:47 PM

      A good kick in the nads before the next up-leg in miners certainly would be typical. If that happens, it presents a big opportunity for those who know what they are doing (I don’t necessarily yet count myself in that group).

      Is this short-term low the bottom? I doubt it, but it’s not out of the question, and I still think the bottom is not far off.

      I stepped aside, (later than I would have liked) but failed to go short. So I’m enjoying watching my purchasing power rise.

      If this was the most telegraphed plunge ever, why did you not hedge or sell at least some to repurchase lower, and lower your cost basis?

    Oct 30, 2017 30:40 PM

    AXU pummeled to its 200 WMA in a straight line. Gotta love it. The action on the weekly chart in terms of momentum has been screaming bear market since Oct of last year. The stochastics stay embedded for weeks to months in oversold territory, while at tops, we get v shaped moves down after barely reaching overbought. That is bear market action, not bull market action. If this turns out to be a bullish consolidation, this is the absolute worst looking bullish consolidation in the history of the miners.

      Oct 30, 2017 30:59 PM

      “…this is the absolute worst looking bullish consolidation in the history of the miners.”

      You need a course in TA.

      The XAU is STILL up 115% since last year’s low. The correction would probably have been much shorter if it had retraced much more of last year’s huge gain. the fact that it hasn’t is an obvious sign of strength.

        Oct 30, 2017 30:08 PM

        The XAU is set up for a straight up waterfall decline. First stop will be the 600 dma at 75. I seriously doubt that that MA stops the decline though, because the banksters won’t be satisfied with that. They will be able to shake the hell out of anyone who has been unfortunate enough to own this sector for the last 1.5 years. Once the Dec. 16 low is taken out, the XAU will have made lower highs and lower lows over a 1.5 year period–not exactly the definition of a bull market. Like I said, if the miners are really in a bull market still, this is the ugliest consolidation in their history.

          Oct 30, 2017 30:24 PM

          More waterfalls. I want unicorns too. And butterflies. And I know there are where my pot of gold is at the end of the rainbow 😉

          Mr. Likesmoneycycletrading thinks we may have a daily cycle low here, but believes it is too early for this to be the intermediate cycle low, so expects a left-translated daily cycle leading into an ICL. The end of the decline into an ICL is what Mr. Savage likes to call the ‘bloodbath phase’. And in the pm miners it often lives up to that name.

          Learn to hedge, learn to swing trade, or learn to enjoy getting kicked in the nads regularly–even on the way up. But the daily bitching? You’d be better off unlearning that.

    Oct 30, 2017 30:42 PM

    Metals muddling continues. Nothing to see here. Ohh well, you know what they say about best laid plans?

    Unfortunately for myself, there is no more investing into physical PMs. I will just have to sit tight with what I got, however long that may be. I suppose, as they say, its not actually a loss until one cashes out. Not to mention my initial goal of gold and silver investment was to realise a gain and put it towards land. Now the land has been purchased without relying on the metals, its not all bad.

    One day the gold and silver bulls will rejoice. The end of year lows over the previous 2 years indicate a close over $1180 for the current uptrend to remain in place. Not that im placing significant importance on such technical ovservations.

    Nov 02, 2017 02:47 AM

    Keep dreaming…gold market is dead since 2011 and is still dead…a drop fom 1925 to around 1000 and the gold BUG DREAMERS keep saying were in a bull market… further comment needed