Major Mining Companies As A Barometer For The Gold Sector

March 8, 2018

Doc and I look at Goldcorp, Barrick, and Newmont individually and use them as a barometer for the overall gold sector. Typically the majors lead the sector higher thanks to big money players entering the sector. These stocks are showing us again that no one is racing into the sector.

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    Mar 08, 2018 08:02 AM

    $silver’s MACD on the daily chart is flatlining. 99.9% of the time this presages a big drop. It did the exact same thing just before the bloodbath phase of the last intermediate cycle low in December.

    Silver’s 200 dma also crossed below the 600 dma on Feb. 1. The last 3 times is did that were in 2000, 2008 and 2012. In 2000 it continued lower for 1 year. The 2008 cross was due to the panic induced crash, so it’s probably the least relevant. In 2012, the cross presaged a dramatic decline from about $30 to the lows in 2016.

    But maybe this time is different?

      Mar 08, 2018 08:22 PM

      The MACD flat-lining is inherently neutral, so I’m not sure where you get your opinions that “99.9% of the time this presages a big drop” (?) 🙂

      There are plenty of times where the MACD flat-lines and raises higher just like there are plenty where it heads lower. Flat-lining is neutral, so the extreme 99.9% bearish outlook is a bit silly.

      In this case there is more momentum for the bears in the short term, but if you back up to the weekly or monthly, it’s not too exaggerated in either direction.

        Mar 08, 2018 08:28 PM

        Because in this context, specifically silver, they rarely if ever form the base of a rally.

        If you can find a similar MACD precisely at a major low, I would like to see it.

          Mar 08, 2018 08:34 PM

          spanky they happen all the time as a flat-lined MACD is neutral and often marks a jumping off point in either direction.

          Here is a chart for a Silver miner – EXN Excellon with a flatlined MACD all of 2015 and then boom! in 2016 it took off.

          Almost every Silver stock had a flat-lined MACD for a year in 2015 before launching higher in 2016. This happens all the time in many different markets, so your 99.9% bearish comment is rubbish.

            Mar 08, 2018 08:57 PM

            I am talking about silver, not some POS miner!

            Mar 08, 2018 08:42 PM

            First of all it was a Silver producer, not a POS.

            Second it doesn’t matter if it is Silver or Sugar or the S&P 500 spanky, the whole point was you made a ridiculous and erroneous claim that if the MACD was flat-lined on a chart that it was a 99.9% bearish probability. As I mentioned flatlined is neutral and it will break hard to the upside or downside channeling sideways, just like wedge/pennant pattern, or narrowing BBs.

            You wrote:

            “If you can find a similar MACD precisely at a major low, I would like to see it.”

            It took me all of 1 minute to find a chart where that is exactly what happened, and that is what most of the silver miners looked liked from 2015 to 2016.

            How about you try learning something about technical analys instead of constantly making untrue and outlandish claims about charts on a daily basis?

    Mar 08, 2018 08:09 AM

    Wow, look at FNV today. So much for that double bottom!

    Remember that $63 target I gave a couple of days ago? And I was pretty much ridiculed for being such a linear thinker???

      Mar 08, 2018 08:30 PM

      This single outcome changes nothing. Getting stopped out is part of the game and I don’t recall Morris saying that the low was 100%. The point is that he knew the potential of that setup and acted appropriately. You, on the other hand, are always at your most bearish when a low arrives. For example, your bearishness was at a peak just before IPT moved up over 50% in ten days. I bought a huge part of my position around the low while you just bitched and talked it down… hmm, maybe I owe you a big “thank you.”

        Mar 08, 2018 08:52 PM

        Huh? I was the one who said it was going sub .40 based on the open black candle from 2016 on the weekly chart. You and ex scoffed at me at the time!

          Mar 08, 2018 08:27 PM

          You also said that it was going to .24 and .11 after that. Your unhappiness shows that something ain’t quite right in Spankyville.

            Mar 08, 2018 08:57 PM

            Well I did say over 6 months ago that march 2018 should represent a turning point, and I guess I will stick by that. So it’s possible it does rally big time soon and that it has bottomed. But a lot can happen in the very short run so I would expect a breakdown to be reversed very quickly and for it to rally into the summer.

            Mar 08, 2018 08:18 PM

            The fact remains, I was right to be bullish at the December lows. Since then, IPT is up 47%, JAG is up 20% and even tiny TYP is up 50%, to name a few. You buy when things are cheap. JAG has been in an uptrend since July and was up 90% as of Tuesday and USAS ran 50% higher after I called the low to the day. So I get a kick out of the bearish guys who never seem to find a setup that allows them to buy when they should.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:28 AM

    Looking at the long term FNW weekly chart, I didn’t realize it performed so well during the bear, basically basing out the entire time.

    That is a hell of a huge base, which suggests that the break out around $56 should hold (and which was already tested successfully once in December 2016).

    If I had to buy FNV, irrespective of cycle timing, I would be very tempted to take a stab when it hits the 144 WMA.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:30 AM

    Doc, thanks for the good news about NEM, my biggest miner holding. A couple of weeks ago you said to get back to you on OR and MAG. And what do you think of MMP and XOM today? Thanks. Little Peggy March turns 70 today. Remember her big hit “I Will Follow Him”?

      Mar 08, 2018 08:59 AM
      Mar 08, 2018 08:00 PM
      Mar 08, 2018 08:40 PM

      BB, MMP?—magellan? XOM looks like it wants to get down to 65-70. OR wants to see 9 and MAG is falling in love with a price of 8.

        Mar 08, 2018 08:26 PM

        Thanks Doc. MMP is Magellan Midstream Partners. Guess I’ll keep my powder dry. Love to buy XOM@65, MAG@8, or OR@9.

          Mar 08, 2018 08:31 PM

          BB, I would be very careful with MMP here. It potentially is going to take out the 50 MAs on the monthly chart here for the first time in years. It’s already taken out the 50 month SMA and is right at the point where it’s spitting distance within the 50 month EMA. Personally, I wouldn’t touch this stock here. On the daily, it looks like it wants to move lower.

            Mar 08, 2018 08:08 PM

            Thanks Doc. I’ll stay away from MMP. Those limited partnerships comlicate my taxes anyway. I sold my last one last year.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:59 AM

    Kudos to the Turd for finally getting it right on who moves commodities. After years of insisting that it was the commercials, he has realized that in fact it is the speculators who love to buy at tops and sell at bottoms. He makes the very real and very accurate prediction that the speculators covering their recent 15 year record level of shorts will supercharge silver soon. I totally agree.

      Mar 08, 2018 08:26 PM

      Price can drop significantly even when the large specs have a very small net long position (July to November 2014 for example).

      On its face, the fact that they are net short now is nice to see from a contrarian perspective, but it is absolutely not a guarantee that silver is about to explode upwards. Would I love to see it? Of course. Plus, the last time they were net short, it took three months before silver finally took off, which gives plently of room yet for shakeouts and fakeouts.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:33 PM

    Tomorrow is the employment report. It could easily trigger gold’s terminal plunge, which likely won’t stop until the FOMC spouts off on the 21st. Should be fun.

      Mar 08, 2018 08:15 PM

      terminal? Gold isn’t going to die and go to 0 because of one employment report.

        Mar 08, 2018 08:05 PM

        You understand that the word has more than one meaning right???

          Mar 08, 2018 08:47 PM

          You understand you talk about things dying, swirling the drain, cuing the platoon music, and play videos of war movies with soliders getting killed on a nearly daily basis right?

          Almost every post from you has some over-the-top statement like XXX going to 0, this will be dead money and basing for the next 10 years, or up above your 99.9% bearish BS about the MACD, so “Terminal” in this case is like all your other exaggerated and nonsensical posts.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:39 PM

    Doc, what do you think about Seabridge Gold, SA on the us exchange and what is a good target for getting in, and timing, according to your estimate?

      Mar 08, 2018 08:25 PM

      Pardu, funny that you bring SA up. Just today I was looking at it technically and am waiting to take a position. I believe you’ll be lucky if you can purchase it lower then 10. I’ll probably purchase it at 10 or just below. Ask me again when it gets very close to 10.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:20 PM

    I was going to talk with Cory about the silver chart but we had enough other areas to fill the time. The monthly chart is the chart to watch now. It’s a thing of beauty. Pricing is just above the 200 month SMA which is rising slowly and silver is almost hugging that average like it did in 2015 before it broke higher. The bollinger bands are narrowing like I’ve never seen which makes sense since silver has been in a weekly trading range for weeks. The 50 month SMA and EMA are plaining out just above pricing and when silver eventually breaks, it should be a thing of beauty. The question is what direction. I believe it’ll be to the upside. However, Spanky may be right about when and it depends on how “soon” is soon to BOB. It could be weeks yet and I believe it will be based on multiple charts I watch and are still works in progress to the downside. It doesn’t make sense to me that silver would break higher and a number of PM stocks are looking like they need to go lower before they bottom. Regardless, in my opinion, this year is the time to take healthy positions especially toward late spring.

      Mar 08, 2018 08:32 PM

      There is also the possibility of a large headfake to bend the BBs one direction before price reverses and heads the opposite direction.

      Mar 08, 2018 08:17 PM

      Thanks for the Silver insights Doc.

    Mar 08, 2018 08:24 PM


    The longer it takes and the more it goes down, the more it will coil for a move to the upside. Longer is better. But interesting to me is the dichotomy between the COTs in gold and those in silver. I’ve never seen silver lead at the bottom but those COTs are getting compelling. I like late spring as well.

      Mar 08, 2018 08:52 PM

      Bob, you’re correct on both accounts. Technically (and especially the longer the time frame), when you get narrowing BBs and the asset trades within those: the longer the time the more impressive the breakout when it occurs. I’ve also been watching the COTS and it is fascinating what it is happening and it may occur for awhile which will lull folks to sleep—and then watch out. I’ve slowly been taking some positions and as May approaches will get very serious since a lot of the weekly charts of some of the PM stocks will show narrower and narrower trading ranges and the BBs on the weekly charts will really start to narrow. We may get just a small breakout then and if we do, I believe the real fireworks start after tax loss selling this year. I can just feel it intuitively since I’ve not been bullish like some with the last move. This next move will be the one that counts and folks better be in it for the long haul.

        Mar 08, 2018 08:19 PM

        Good thoughts guys and the delayed gratification will be worth the candle.

        Ever Upward!

          Mar 08, 2018 08:48 PM

          I would not be surprised if PSLV does better than the XAU or HUI over the next few years.

            Mar 09, 2018 09:15 AM


            The XAU and HUI are leveraged and at all time lows compared to the price of gold. There has already been a washout. They will lead and surpass the PSLV but silver and -platinum will probably lead gold

      Mar 09, 2018 09:21 AM

      The Demon at the Door………..Amazon python ………..

      Mar 09, 2018 09:16 AM

      A handful of us have been warning for years about this growing danger posed by the Executive Branch with its presidential toolbox of terror that could be used—and abused—by future presidents.

      The groundwork, we warned, was being laid for a new kind of government where it won’t matter if you’re innocent or guilty, whether you’re a threat to the nation or even if you’re a citizen.

      What will matter is what the president—or whoever happens to be occupying the Oval Office at the time—thinks. And if he or she thinks you’re a threat to the nation and should be locked up, then you’ll be locked up with no access to the protections our Constitution provides.

        Mar 09, 2018 09:18 AM

        All of the imperial powers amassed by Barack Obama and George W. Bush—to kill American citizens without due process, to detain suspects indefinitely, to strip Americans of their citizenship rights, to carry out mass surveillance on Americans without probable cause, to suspend laws during wartime, to disregard laws with which he might disagree, to conduct secret wars and convene secret courts, to sanction torture, to sidestep the legislatures and courts with executive orders and signing statements, to direct the military to operate beyond the reach of the law, to operate a shadow government, and to act as a dictator and a tyrant, above the law and beyond any real accountability—were inherited by Donald Trump.

          Mar 09, 2018 09:19 AM

          We The People………..need to Wake UP…………….