When Looking At The US Markets You Cannot Ignore China
Valentine Schmidt, Business Editor at the Epoch Times shares his thoughts on the overall health of the US markets. You cannot ignore what is happening over in China as well as the economies are closely connected.
The China Story That Is Far Bigger Than Apple
A tectonic shift in the country’s economy has largely gone unnoticed by investors
By Nathaniel Taplin – Jan. 4, 2019
“China’s economy is slowing so much it even tripped up Apple, while the clock ticks on the 90-day cease-fire in the U.S. trade feud. Less noticed amid the headlines is a major shift in the Chinese economy that is quietly beginning to upend the global financial system.”
“China, long the world’s heavyweight saver and a huge buyer of foreign assets like Treasuries, is now a big spender—a trend the current cyclical growth dip is unlikely to permanently derail. In early 2018, China got more of its growth from consumption than the U.S…”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-china-story-that-is-far-bigger-than-apple-11546598005
China Pours $218 Billion Into the Economy as Growth Slows
By Alexandra Stevenson – Jan. 4, 2019
“The People’s Bank of China on Friday said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves by one percentage point. The move will essentially free up 1.5 trillion Chinese renminbi, or about $218 billion, for an economy experiencing weaker factory output and consumer confidence while it weathers a trade war with the United States.”
“The cut is not unusual for China’s central bank, but it comes amid uncertainty about how Beijing will manage slower growth. China’s slowdown has contributed to shaky global financial markets. On Wednesday, underscoring the broad impact, Apple unexpectedly cut its sales forecast for its latest quarter, citing disappointing iPhone sales in China, once one of its most vibrant markets.”
“Chinese officials pledged last month to step up support of the economy, and they are facing new urgency, said Mark Williams, chief Asia economist for Capital Economics…”
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/business/china-economy-central-bank.html
China is becoming a military superpower, China wants The Island Of Formosa back (present day Taiwan). If their economy keeps deteriorating The Chinese will take back Taiwan. The US is in no position to have another war especially with China. The US has treaties with Taiwan, America can’t defeat The Taliban, China and the rest of The World know this, but America still thinks they call the shots. What a terrible position The US has gotten itself in, financially and militarily. DT
I would not agree with her tax policy as I understand it. Paying $730K on a million dollars and leaving the payee $270 seems a bit tough. I do however have a lot of very successful colleagues who live in Canada who pay close to that. So what do they do? They simply make more money if they can. (The key here is “if they can”)
Before I can intelligently comment I would have to see the whole picture from an income of $100, and up. Can anybody help me on this so that I can continue on the comments?
I am not an economist, never having been significantly personally motivated by money.
But I would point out the article on Ocasio-Cortez appears deceptive…..it attempts to show no correlation between taxation and growth rate.
In using as a proxy for taxation the top bracket, the article is highly deceptive.
If on uses {total tax collected}/ GDP and plots this against growth rate one reaches a substantially different result.
Graphs I remember seeing for various European countries show quite a distinct time-delayed inverse correlation. I do not have graphing capability on my home computer, but do not believe the US population to be substantially different from Europeans.
I am always intrigued by ideology in formation of beliefs, compared with historical actual precedence consequential outcomes.
Historical and actual outcomes are certainly important inputs, Professor. But, don’t forget my “prettiest baby in the nursery theory” when it comes to the founders of many of the beliefs!
I have not come to a final conclusion on Pretty Baby, Ocasio-Cortez yet.
On face she seems stupid to me.
But this conflicts with my belief hat people that stupid could not be elected to
Congress…..they have to be just misguided intelligent people.
I assume, therefore she must be like Obama….a brilliant Devil incarnate with a golden tongue and without a conscience.
Or maybe I just over-estimate the intelligence of New York voters of whom I have already a very low opinion.
Her constituents certainly do not represent all New York voters.
That is correct, Al. Her constituents represent only the most ignorant of New York voters.
If that is true, I am certainly not surprised and that is why I brought it up.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Justice John Roberts is completely under the blackmail control of the deep state/CIA
Corruption is so extensive it pervades so much.
(Roberts appoints FISA court Judges.)
Full-on socialism is coming boys…and you can bet the corrupt MSM hopes Butto O’Dork will be the next Obammy.
Green Socialism Gaining Endorsements
https://www.lewrockwell.com/lrc-blog/green-socialism-gaining-endorsements/
Did you see the recent interview with Roy Sebag that Bob Moriarty recommended as a must listen? Roy’s very sharp. Says when he talks with people from elite economics programs, they’re socialists. He expects that a Universal Basic Income is in our future.
I imagine this plays into the ‘technocracy’ notion that Patrick Wood discussed with Richard Grove. Eventually no more markets. Instead everyone is allocated a certain amount of purchasing power based on energy allocation. Brave new world.
If, the commies get their way……..everyone is going down the tubes……
Do you have a link for the interview? I did not see it.
I saw this article on Bob’s site http://www.321gold.com/editorials/guest/darcy010219.html and it is a must read along with all the linked articles.
At least I thought I saw the link to that article on Bob’s site. Now I don’t see the link to it but the article is still there. Maybe I saw the link to the article on b’s blog. 🙂
When Bob says ‘must listen’, I listen, and he hasn’t disappointed me yet.
All great stuff. Thanks, GH.
ditto…..I apologize , I post below, did not see your’s first……..
yours….not your’s
And the Patrick Woods interview, in case you missed my post the other day. This is a deep dive (3 hrs total), but quite relevant, I would say, to big-picture thinking about how to invest and prepare for the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNkDiBOO4H0
Once again I will plug Richard Grove, who does outstanding work in helping elucidate the big picture.
And this is not being reported in the MSM in the US. It is really heating up in France.
I said people are ticked………the controllers have lost control….they just do not realize it yet…..
Govt officials……politicians are not going to be safe………jmo
Hey Jerry,
I was out in the boonies for the weekend, but saw your comments on platinum vs palladium the other day. So you may like this chart:
Since 1980 palladium pretty much only exceeded platinum in price during 2000 and 2001, and then for the last year+. Over most of that time frame platinum fluctuated between 2.5x and 5x more expensive than palladium.
Unless something has really changed, this is definitely a time to expect either palladium will fall or platinum will rise, or both.
I’m not a spread trader, but I’d guess short palladium long platinum is a high odds long-term speculation here.
Oops, meant to make that a weekly chart:
I’m not so sure about platinum versus silver. I lean toward silver doing better in coming years.
I would have to agree with you concerning silver……
Platinum is historically cheap but silver will have no trouble beating it in the months and years straight ahead.
Short term, platinum might soon do some catching up…
Silver priced in platinum:
http://schrts.co/EJUWj8
All of like minds…………..silver will be the moon shot……….
GH………thanks for the post………
Hey Professor ………here is one for you on debt……..
try 22 min mark…….GOLDMONEY
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/72137-the-intelligent-investor-s-guide-to-gold-central-bank-manipulation
start about 21:45. so you do not miss the comment…….
Jerry..Thanks for that link. Its a great interview, everyone should watch it.
thanks………but, I see some others have posted above…..sorry guys
Christ is Born. Greetings from the Orthodox Faithful. Thanks for you help yesterday Jerry.
Glad to be of assistance………and you are welcome, and thanks for the thought.
I was thinking about things again and I know your on board with President Trump.
I think the Trump supporters find themselves in the same position as the Blacks did with Obama. How did that hope and change work out for you? This is way bigger than President Trump.
You are always spot on with your Jubilee posts. We both know this is the only real answer.
THanks again for your compliment…….
I am at a total loss. I subscribed to wired magazine only to end up cancelling my subscription and writing them a letter telling them I wouldn’t wipe my ass with their magazine if it was the last thing in the out house. I can spot propaganda and have developed a keen eye as such.
In my search for truthful news, I did a paid subscription to a news service. Last night listening to the news, one of their China reporters quotes Wired Magazine.
I am in total disbelief how far the battle for our conscious minds has gone.
Stay grounded,….keep it simple………jmo
If you want unbiased news maybe you should try b’s blog 🙂
Few people can make me laugh anymore. Thanks for keeping it real.
But don’t be fooled by the radio
The TV or the magazines
They show you photographs of how your life should be
But they’re just someone else’s fantasy
So if you think your life is complete confusion
Because you never win the game
Just remember that it’s a grand illusion
And deep inside we’re all the same
Jerry: When I say thanks,I’m speaking for
Veterans for 9/11 Truth
Pilots for 9/11 Truth
Architects and Engineers for 9/11 Truth.
The Truth is God and God is the Truth.
Dang…..that is a large crowd……..appreciate , I am speechless….really…
Hope you are in Florida…
Indiana Grocery Store Can’t Process Food Stamp Payments Due To Govt. Shutdown
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/indiana-grocery-store-cant-process-food-stamp-payments-due-govt-shutdown
SNAP cards will be going for 50 cents on the dollar …..in the hood…….
Plenty of food at the chapels…….steeples and church food banks……
People are going to eat, and the shot gun approach works well, if all fails……..
Look at her face………her SNAP card was rejected……
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-07/5-things-ocasio-cortez-doesnt-want-you-know-about-her-green-new-deal
Johnson and Lady Bird would be proud……….
THe extremes should not be happening………..THANKS FED FRAUDSTERS…….
Bezo , can feed um……….and Zucky, and Gates, Buffet…….
Nancy and Chuck, should cough up……the money they stole from insider trading….
Dang…..I am on a Rant……..and that is not Trading Advice…….. 🙂
Bezo , can feed um……….and Zucky, and Gates, Buffet…….
Are you saying they will have a buffet of Buffet? 🙂
Sooner or later we will see what happens when the bread and circuses run out…may happen sooner than later.
Maybe a Pizza Gate um……….Bezo, and clan…….that is…..
Goldman Sachs slashes 2019 oil price forecast amid oversupply concerns
Sam Meredith – 3 Hours Ago
“The investment bank now expects international benchmark Brent crude to average $62.50 a barrel this year, down from a previous forecast of $70.”
“Meanwhile, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average $55.50 in 2019, down from a prior estimate of $64.50, the investment bank said in a research note published Sunday.”
Goldman has no crystal ball. The Saudis run the show and they always have.
Kissinger was and still is a Harvard Pedo and I won’t comment on Bush Sr.
Jared got his loan from the Qataris, I wouldn’t expect to much from the Saudi’s.
MBS= More Bull Sh*t
Your post was all speculation, garbage, and the only BS I see around here.
The Canadian dollar is pulling back from some fork resistance at the moment but looks strong enough to get through it soon…
http://schrts.co/f2czAQ
Canada has no Gold and Fidel Jr is weak. Canada is soon to become our Muslim neighbors to the North.
Spoken with true intolerance.
Are you just going to start trolling all comments now JohnK/Snowbird?
Jerry, beware of false idols…a one eyed Ocrasio-Cortez…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6564981/Holy-cow-One-eyed-calf-worshipped-god-India.html
That be the ALL SEEING EYE……..India oddy……..
Dow Drops More Than 600 Points on Apple Warning, China Fears
TheStreet Staff – Jan 3, 2019
“While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China,” Cook said. “In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.”
“Cook pinned the weaker iPhone demand in China on several factors, including a slowing economy worsened by “rising trade tensions with the United States” and high prices tied to the strength of the U.S. dollar.”
“Additionally, Kevin Hassett, an economic adviser to the Trump administration, told CNN Thursday that the slowdown in China will hurt the bottom lines of numerous domestic companies.”
“There are a heck of a lot of U.S. companies that have a lot of sales in China that are basically going to be watching their earnings be downgraded… until we get a deal with China. It’s not going to be just Apple,” Hassett said.
https://www.thestreet.com/markets/dow-sinks-after-revenue-warning-from-apple-14823393