Summarizing The Brexit Vote, More China Market Intervention, and US Market Technical Levels
Chris Temple joins me today to recap some significant news from yesterday. The Brexit vote failed by a wide margin however the markets more or less brushed it off. China is stepping in again to help save/support its markets which is helping the US markets as well. We wrap up the call by looking at the technical picture for the US markets and provide a general prediction of what this year will look like in a broad sense.
This is just an addendum to your question……
Wake up Call from Jensen…….good interview…..start about 5min mark
Palladium ……Jensen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obce3nZ_pV8
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On January 16, 2019 at 8:33 am,
OOTB Jerry says:
Palladium SHORTAGE……..
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Snowbird is this a snowjob, bitcoin and palladium! LOL! DT
Hey D.T.
How’s Fidel Jr?
Any new corn hole laws to report?
Ms May Dismay.
DeepState speaks with forked tongue.
There is nothing wrong with hard Brexit operating under WTO rules.
The alternative is to give up sovereignty and perpetually under the thumb of un-elected EU bureaucrats.
I really hope we have a No deal Brexit, anything less just muddies the waters.
Good article.
”
Arnold J. Toynbee stated: “It is just because we are really attacking the principle of local sovereignty that we keep on protesting our loyalty to it so loudly…. I will merely repeat that we are at present working, discreetly but with all our might, to wrest this mysterious political force called sovereignty out of the clutches of the local national states of our world. And all the time we are denying with our lips what we are doing with our hands.”
Dr. Toynbee (1889-1975) was no run-of-the-mill intellectual; he is widely considered to be one of the most influential historians/philosophers of the 20th century. His importance largely derives from his position for many years as the official historian and oracle for the Royal Institute of International Affairs (RIIA, also known as Chatham House), the sister organization of the globalist Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
”
–Ain’t Globalism grand?
Pretty disappointing performance by the miners relative to gold and silver. It makes you wonder what will happen to the miners when the metals actually correct.
In a vacuum, the miners look fine, but their relative performance has me a little nervous, I must admit. The fact that I am so weighted in silver miners isn’t helping, since the ones I own are some of the weakest–e.g., EXK and AG. AG dropped over 10% yesterday. That type of action doesn’t scream imminent reversal any time soon. What happens when $silver finally drops 50 cents or more?
I guess that if the price of silver goes down .50 cents, then the miners will go up since good news, recorrd production, record earnings, bad news in the world, and a destroyed economic system makes miners go down.
The action on the weekly $hui:$gold ratio chart looks eerily similar to the action in 2016. The startling thing is that it is playing out over the same exact timeframe, except 3 years later.
There is likely no way in hell this resolves itself in a similar way. Still interesting to see.
Hard Brexit Soft Brexit No Brexit ! Brexit Widowed Exit ! No Brexit ! Stop looking TV ! Bankers control and the UK will ( NEVER BREXIT ) Fraud 24 / 7 !!!!!!
It’s possible we see a very big drop in silver miners over the next week or two, similar to January 2016. For many of them, this would close the performance gap many of them have had in place since 2016 relative to the metal. We are talking EXK at 1.50 or lower.
You have a right to be concerned. This is not the big rally everyone was touting AGAIN.
I don’t see GDX making a lower low. That being said, it could drop into the low 19s, upper 18s, briefly—basically a test of the rising 20 WMA. I’m just not too sure what the silver miners will do into month end. My guess is many will make lower lows.
Do you mean the silver miners to make lower lows lower than the january 2016 levels?
Margix, I don’t think so.
The fact is, the silver miners have held up remarkably well vs silver since the 2016 low. That performance gap was closed from time to time over the last 3 years by silver catching up, or miners catching down, or viceversa. Assuming silver doesn’t make a lower low below the recent low, then no, I do not expect the silver miners to break their 2016 lows anytime soon. That being said, there is currently a pretty large gap between miners and silver that still favors the metal IMO. So if silver corrects hard from here, I would expect the silver miner to get hammered and almost surely will take out their recent lows. OTOH, silver may make one last spike higher while miners don’t go up as much as one would expect, which is another way the gap can be closed.
The first half of this year should finally show the lows for a vast number of PM stocks.
Doc, will it also mark the low for PM, MO, IMBBY, and BTI ? Do you prefer PM or MO?
BTI or IMBBY? If we had put just $1000 into MO in 1970 and kept all the spin-offs, and reinvested the dividends, it would be worth nearly $5 million now !!! Houston’s own A.J. Foyt turns 85 today. He’s the only person to have won the Indy 500(4 times), the Daytona 500, and the 24 hour race at Le Mans. What a racer!
you could be dead on doc.
If a trade deal is announced, the market and dollar might take off, sending metals and commodities lower and allowing the Fed to raise interest rates again.
Very very frustrating market. So far this is playing out more or less exactly how the metals behaved from 1980 to 2000. Let’s face it, 2011 to 2016 absolutely wrecked commodity charts. mid 2016-to date was another bear market. Basically, we’ve have an 8 month bull phase surrounded by 9 years of misery.
Supposedly, this time is different, but it certainly is not playing out that way–as I said this looks eerily similar to late 80s action. Very very frustrating. I still believe the recent lows in GDX will hold, but to be perfectly honest I have my serious doubts at this point.
What is funny, the clothing store I worked at in the 60’s ,… AJ and his friends use to come into the shop…in Speedway, Indiana…..the shop owner was friends with AJ, seemed like a really nice guy…
Are you saying that if that gap will be closed then the silver miners will finally go up as they did in the first months of 2016???
BB, IMBBY and BTI are sitting right at their 200 month SMA. If they take that out for a couple of months, they have much further to fall. One could purchase a little and then watch the stocks carefully to hope for a rebound. PM and MO have the potential to fall a lot farther. Both PM and MO look problematic yet technically with MO looking worse.
Thanks Doc, as BTI has already fallen from 71 to 31 the last year and is yielding over 8% with a PE of 7, I bet it will not fall much further. I bought more @31.2 on Dec. 31. Not as sure about PM or MO.
Tanks ! DOC ! Cool is the way !
End of a great period…………Jack Bogle dies………
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-16/vanguard-founder-jack-bogle-dead-89
And Carol Channing passed as well……….time passes on…….
But A.J. Foyt and Little Richard still live! I hope they outlast George Soros and Ruth Ginsberg…
ditto………..plus 2………
Hi Bonzo: Thanks for getting the blood going again.
A.J was and still is the “Real Deal”
#72 2014 Rookie of the Year Bemidji Speedway (yours truly)
Yes, we shall not see his like again. A.J. had more testosterone than John Wayne, Big Al, and Clint Eastwood combined.
And you can throw in Super Dave Osborne too!
Silver in 1989 looks very very similar to silver today on the daily and weekly charts, and regarding all of the moving averages.
Back then, silver based in a tight range for about 5 months and then popped up massively over the 200 dma. It hung out over the 200 dma in a fairly tight range for about 2 months and then crashed back underneath all the MAs in a couple of days. It proceeded to bottom a little over 1 year later and then retested that low 2 years later.
A lot of guys, including newsletter writers, thought gold was going lower when it bottomed last August. It has since gained as much as $140 (12%) while many of those guys talked it down every step of the way.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p0102276034c&a=640680443&listNum=3
Since bottoming in September, the HUI has gained as much as 25% despite the stock market (SPY) plunging 20% during the same period. Of course, the same guys talked it down every step of the way while failing to grasp the significance of such a performance under such circumstances. Most of those guys thought that a falling stock market would take the gold miners with them.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p1973533622c&a=640682620&listNum=6
GDX:SPY topped precisely at resistance and has now pulled back to touch the 55 week MA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p8644451759c&a=640691162&listNum=6
Silver has closed every day since Dec 28 above the 200 day MA and hasn’t come close to giving it up since peaking almost two weeks ago. This is a show of strength whether it finally does go below it or not.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p5184121217c&a=640693408&listNum=4
I’ve seen America Silver (t.usa) get mentioned a lot here….saw this on bnn
Silver easily looks better now, at 7 weeks past its low, than it did in 2016 at 8 weeks past its low…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p6222988224c&a=518191349&listNum=4
The CRB is at a one-month high but also at resistance…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CRB&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p4886009461c&a=422938654&listNum=1
Off topic: Nancy Peloski is welcome to hold my bleep, while I take a leak, on the Democrat leader ship (0f…
And a royalties play …..Metalla
Maverix is another solid Jr Royalties play similar to Metalla, and both companies will continue to gain momentum as their portfolios grow. I wonder if a company like Wheaton Precious Metals or Sandstorm or Osisko may take one of these out down the road?
SPY is finally back at the 50 day MA (it only took 5 weeks)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p8172847547c&a=627324254&listNum=1
This fork is working well…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=9&id=p1370273841c&a=640702014&listNum=4
Public Announcement………..GO TO HELL..and test the heat….ORourkey……..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-16/beto-orourke-suggests-america-should-ditch-constitution
What a moron………
figure of speech of course……..GO TO HELL……for we wish not a person of mental illness should experience such destruction…….
Just do not think, you have the ability to give everyone their GOD GIVEN RIGHTS…..
I think this compute has a mind of it’s own…….
Should read…….just do not think, you have the ability to take away everyone’s GOD GIVEN RIGHT..
Is NoooooooooooBody here following Great Bear Resources! DT
Dang it, DT, why didn’t I get the memo back in August?! 😒🙄
Matthew, In August I was getting my cataracts done! YEAH BABY! LOL! DT
Alright DT, if you say so…
Believe it was the big pick in the ceo stock pickers contest for 2018.
GDXJ: The 20 day MA is above the 200 day MA for the first time since May…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=9&id=p6812369079c&a=640722000&listNum=6
Despite gold being up a whopping $120 off its low, the $XAU is merely flat vs gold and looks to be headed for a fresh new low vs gold–i.e., it’s underperforming the metal bigtime.
If you look at $gold plotted behind $xau over the last 3 years, the last time $gold jumped ahead of $XAU to such an extent was in early 2018. $Gold ended up dropping massively to catch back down to the $XAU. Once $gold caught back down in June of 2018, the $XAU itself then began the huge breakdown that brought us to the September low.
So the only empirical evidence we have since the low suggests that this action is bearish for the metal and miners longer term. It makes some sense. Why wouldn’t the market be bidding up share prices if it knew the gold price was sustainable?
Anyway, I have been saying that GDX, in a vacuum, hasn’t looked better in 7+ years, but the relative underperformance is not bullish at all, at least based on prior examples. Maybe this time is different.
It makes more sense to look at GDM vs gold than XAU since XAU has more silver exposure. In light of the turmoil that hit stocks during the period since the miners bottomed vs gold, I’d say they did very well. I don’t know why so many here think that the miners should have acted even better under the circumstances. In fact, why are some commentators not noticing how good silver looks in recent weeks despite the stock market carnage?
There is plenty that many are missing and it will be fine/healthy if the miners don’t do much for a week or two.
I’m up over 3% today while GDX and GDXJ are up about .4% and that is not a bad sign considering what I hold.
GDM is up 11% vs gold since the September low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM:$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p09162032580&a=614724003&listNum=6
GDM’s 3 year performance relative to gold looks about the same to me TBH. At current gold prices, one would expect GDM to be around 685–that’s a massive 110 pt discrepancy. The gap has also grown wider since late November as gold price soared. To me it looks pretty bearish longer term–the stocks are discounting a much lower gold price. It’s possible that GDM holds up like it did in early 2018 and more or less goes sideways as gold eventually collapses back down.
I can’t rule out a massive spike in miners to catch up, or even meet halfway as gold works its way down, but one has to wonder why the gap exists in the first place, especially over such a relatively extended period of time (months).
For GDM:Gold to do poorly while correcting from the 2016 top is to be expected but I do not put the action of the last four months in that category for the reasons I mentioned above —namely, the plunging stock market.
No one should expect the next bull move to be like the 2016 one regardless of what the stock market is doing. Those who imply that I ever said this rise would be like a rocket launch are being dishonest or at least sloppy. The speed and magnitude of the 2016 rise was a once or twice-in-a-lifetime affair built on record negative sentiment and the “need” for the sector to mean-revert. I expect the current rise to last much longer and result in a much shallower pullback/correction when it is done. Nothing is a sure thing but the charts AND sentiment are supportive of much more upside once this short term pullback is done.
Well I agree. And I said this initial move will be a grinding affair, and it has certainly turned out that way. In fact, looking at $HUI or GDX in a vacuum, this is playing out more or less how I expected. The 20 WMA is always a valid target on corrections during a trending bull and obviously at some point that level will be tested again. Thankfully, that MA is moving up for both miners and gold.
What I did not anticipate however is the latest gap between the metals and miners since gold broke out above $1240 so massively. I would have thought $gold would be in the $1260 region with where the miners are at currently, not still knocking on the door of $1300.
To me, the miner’s lacklustre performance since gold broke above $1240 strongly suggests gold is at least coming back down to test that breakout level, and probably lower. Could I be wrong? Of course. I would never say something is 100% certain. Like I said, it’s possible that miners rocket up to close the performance gap gold has opened up, but history doesn’t suggest that is likely.
I sincerely hope I am wrong.
Aside from stock market weakness, the miners’ lack of leverage to gold could be due to an expectation that gold will fall once stocks stabilize. In other words, once safe haven flows dry up. If so, I do not share that concern since I believe that big turns are underway in both stocks and the gold space.
I agree the action is bullish. I have probably been overly fixated with Ichimoku voodoo.
To me, the weekly Ichimoku picture for gold is precarious. If it fails to close above $1270 on the week of February 11, I think the next 6 months are going to be a slog under $1270, as the cloud’s upper border is set to remain flat until late in the year.
To me, that scenario would make the analogy to 1980-2000 even stronger. yes, I know, the fundamentals are radically different today than back then, but the charts speak for themselves.
China runs the show.
Got Palladium?
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PA&p=m5