Weak Retail Sales Data and Inflation All Point To A Muddling Market

February 14, 2019

Chris Temple joins me today to share his thoughts on the recent inflation data from yesterday and retail sales number this morning. While the market is being pushed down today by the retail numbers it is in no way breaking down. We touch on the reasons why the markets will continue to muddle here and why the USD is holding above 97.

Click here to visit the National Investor website to follow along with Chris.

    Feb 14, 2019 14:58 AM

    SLV:GLD is reversing hard back up to resistance today. It is trying to maintain contact with the underside of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily chart. If it can maintain contact with the lower border and get back inside the cloud, that would be great sign that there could be more upside in the metals.

    Cyclists are calling for an intermediate term correction now, so I have no idea how this is going to play out. My guess would be that slv:gld is going to fail and trend lower over the next few weeks, but who the heck knows. I would take a $2 pop in silver, but that doesn’t jibe with the cyclists’ call at all. Of course, it’s possible gold drops more than silver on a correction, thus forcing slv:gld upwards, but that is extremely unlikely.

      Feb 14, 2019 14:28 AM

      Those cyclists are going to provide the fuel for the next leg higher.

        Feb 14, 2019 14:31 AM

        What do you mean? Like imminently, or after the next intermediate low is reached in gold?

          Feb 14, 2019 14:02 AM

          I mean imminently. I don’t think we’ve reached an intermediate term high.

        Feb 14, 2019 14:41 AM

        I must say, if the dow:gold ratio were to surpass its October 2018 peak, I will be shocked.

        The Dow looks cooked to me vs gold. Now, it’s just a matter of how much of a retracement we get. I will really be surprised if it gets past a 50% Fibonacci retracement. We have already slightly exceeded the 38.2% retracement.

    Feb 14, 2019 14:30 AM

    also, gld:$spx has dropped below cloud support on the daily chart. I would expect the ratio to weaken, or stay flat at best, for the next month. Such a pity.

    Feb 14, 2019 14:24 AM

    $hui:gdx ratio continuing to hang in there, giving me some hope that we can still squeeze out a large pop higher in the miners before a genuine, multimonth consolidation. The daily BBs are tight. Would be a shame to see it drop to new multiyear lows. I can’t see it happening.

      Feb 14, 2019 14:29 AM

      For the true bull to kick off, I personally think $HUI has to start outperforming GDX. It’s had its teeth kicked in by GDX over the last 2.5 years or so. Since the October low in the miners, the $HUI:GDX ratio has bumped off of the low many times, including today. Something has got to give.

    Feb 14, 2019 14:04 PM

    Chris is right, the criminal politicians need inflation to reduce the real value of the debt as much as possible and there will continue to be an erosion of the standard of living if not an outright crash.

    And look at the absurdity of this:

    Feds Collect Record Individual Income Taxes in Calendar 2018–as Debt Climbed

    No matter how much the b@stard criminals in DC steal it is NEVER enough. And that goes for all the other levels of gooooberment!

    Now get back to work tax serfs so you can pay Uncle. And remember, no matter how much he takes it will never be enough. You, your kids and your grand kids will always be tax serfs and debt slaves.

    Feb 14, 2019 14:56 PM

    A couple of posters here are into NGD big time and it got spanked today, I bought some but she just kept tanking! DT

    Feb 14, 2019 14:07 PM

    Funny how the world really works or doesn’t. Dick Cheney said deficits don’t matter. How many ratios have we all looked at since then? Apparently he was right.
    So we elect the king of debt and off we go……….with the Fed’s assistance.

      Feb 14, 2019 14:23 PM

      Cheney said that to Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill in November, 2002. Gold is up four fold since then and everything else costs more as well. Maybe what matters to his set is a little different than some would assume.

        Feb 14, 2019 14:30 PM

        The S&P 500 is down 29% versus real money in those 16 years so the masses have a.) taken great risks just to keep up with inflation, and, b.) paid big taxes on phantom gains when they did get it right (generally speaking, of course).

          Feb 15, 2019 15:57 AM

          Hi Matthew –

          Do you have a short term target for ISVLF? I am thinking in the $0.28 to $0.30 region, but I could also see a scenario for it to spike up to the $0.31 to $0.32 region. Looks like a big inverse head and shoulders formation to me that will ultimately go back down to $0.20 to fill the gap on the daily.

            Feb 15, 2019 15:12 AM

            I think it will have no trouble getting to the next speedline on the following chart (about .315 for the next two weeks)…

            Feb 15, 2019 15:18 AM

            It would actually have to reach .19 to completely fill the gap since gaps are measured from the previous close not the previous intraday swings. But I don’t think it will go there at all since there is no gap on the “senior” listing:

            Feb 15, 2019 15:22 AM

            Despite obvious reasons for uncertainty here, I do not think the sector is heading down next week.

            Feb 15, 2019 15:36 PM

            Thanks Matthew. Good thought about using the primary listing to look for gaps. I agree I think we have some more juice left to squeeze out of this move. Happy trading.