Hour 1 – All About Volatility in US Markets and Metals
First off I hope everyone in Canada has a good Remembrance Day on Monday. My Grandfather was in the war and will be in my thoughts.
In the first hour I am joined by Mike Larson, Joe Mazumdar, and Jeff Christian to get comments ranging from US market moves, gold and silver moves, and even look at some of the less talked about metals. Please listen to the company interviews (link below) and keep in touch by emailing me at Fleck@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 – Mike Larson, Editor of The Safe money Report kicks off the show with his thoughts on the money flows into risk on assets.
- Segment 2 – Joe Mazumdar, Editor of Exploration Insights was recently in Finland for a resource conference. We discuss the environment for resource companies in Finland and some of the more interesting stories.
- Segment 3 and 4 – Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at CPM Group joins me for a wide ranging conversation on the resource sector. We touch on gold, silver, platinum group metals, and Batter metals.
Exclusive Company Interviews This Week
- China Gold International Resources – An Introduction, Let Me Know Your Thoughts
- Maple Gold Mines – More Information On The New Resource at the Douay Project
- Awale Resources – A Discussion on the 3,000 meter drill program at the Odienné Gold Project
Thanks Cory & Big Al and to all to the KER contributors for another great week of shows and the weekend show. Cheers!
Interesting, she figures 2019 was a good year to own gold but doesnt sound so sure moving forward.
I dont blame her.
Posted in the wrong spot, trying again.
Comment on Juliette D.
Juliette Declercq – I Believe There are Times to Own Gold & This Has Been a Great Year for It
by @PalisadeRadio – 5 Nov 2019 #AudioInterview
Keep Calm and Buy Gold: Why It’s Not Time to Panic
Sprott Money – Eric’s Weekly Wrap-Up w/ Craig Hemke (Nov 08, 2019) #AudioInterview
“It’s been a tough week for precious metals. Gold is down almost $50, silver down $1. But with prices bombing, is it time to panic—or do some bargain shopping? Eric Sprott breaks down all the gold and silver news you need, including:”
• Will there be another rate cut in December?
• Why there could be an opportunity in Nickel
• Plus: What to look for in microcap companies
The Factors Driving Gold Higher Have Now Turned… But For How Long?
Korelin Economics Report Nov. 7, 2019 #AudioInterview
“Falling interest rates, #CentralBanks easiness, trade fears, all were driving money into #SafeHaven assets but all have reversed over the past few weeks. This is causing money to flow out of the safe havens and into the US markets and other risk on sectors. Craig Hemke joins to share his thoughts on how long this downward pressure will last. Taking a close look at the open interest and CoT reports is another key consideration.”
Sam Laakso – A Financial Crisis is on the Way & Will Push Gold Much Higher
by @PalisadeRadio – 7 Nov 2019 #AudioInterview
Did I hear that right?
He figures gold goes to the 2016 high, about $1300.
One thing to say about Sprott, he is consistent, always a good time to buy metal.
I hold many of the same Silver and few Gold stocks that Sprott positioned in, and many had a great year and there were excellent trade set ups, but his volume absolutely helped, so I’m glad he was a buyer.
He’s done far more to support the Jr mining sector than most of the talking heads or even industry pundits, and it has been a good time to have been accumulating the metals since the December 2015 low on up. Sure it is an up & down rollercoaster, but the trend has clearly been edging higher the last few years.
Having said that, there are ideal times to buy during corrective moves (like the one we are in now and may be in through the holidays) and times to lighten the load like during the surges higher (like we saw into August/early Sept this year).
I hope her concern is right, that gold could drop to $1300.
That could be a huge buying opportunity for shares.
I dont see gold changing, it should continue to adjust to the amount of currency printed.
Ive always been a 5-!0% phyzz thinker, but now with all the printing maybe the % should be a little higher.
I should have said his..Sam Laakso.
Having said that, I figured gold has a good chance to not drop bellow 1450 but if it does I’ll buy at about every $50 lower.
Yeah, if Gold were to pull back down to $1420 or worst case a backtest of $1377-$1380, then it would be a place to buy/add agressively.
I’m not sure we’ll even see a pullback that extreme, and if Gold hangs in the $1450-$1460 zone through year-end, then it will likely stretch it’s legs again in Q1 and start the next leg higher.
For now, Gold appears to be correcting more over time, than it has in price, and has been far more resilient than many expected. Just a year ago, Gold was down at $1170 and in the $1200’s so it is interesting how complacent folks got a few hundred bucks higher.
Regarding the Gold Producers – they should be fine at $1400-$1500 gold and making money.
As far as the Developers, it is shocking that more investors have not realized what a huge impact on their economic studies and projections that $1400 or $1500 Gold has, compared to where most of the market is still valuing them at $1200 or $1250 Gold. When that finally gets factored in, most of the Developers will need to get re-rated much higher, even if Gold just hangs out where it has been the last few months.
Denise Shull – To Succeed in a Bull Market, You Must Have Patience & Discipline
by @PalisadeRadio on 31 Oct 2019 #AudioInterview
Interesting, she figures 2019 was a good year to own gold but doesnt sound so sure moving forward.
I dont blame her.
She is more a generalist investor that liked the trend in gold this year, which was mostly a result of safe haven inflows due to trade wars, currency wars, Brexit, and low to negative interest rates. Most generalist investors only jump on trends when they are so obvious that much of the move has already happened.
It is less impressive to come out and say it was a good year in PMs after it is clear to anyone with eyeballs that it has been a good year.
We were saying that on here at the end of last year and that the next leg of the bull market would play out this year where the $1377 high from 2016 would be eclipsed, forming a new impulse leg, and that is exactly what played out.
Like most genralist investors she likely thinks it is always a good time to be in the general markets over the beaten up resource sector, but it is clear (as mentioned dozens of times) that we are still in the bull market that kicked off in Dec of 2015 when Gold put in it’s major low at $1045.40. Gold got up to $1566 earlier this year which means it’s up $500 off that low, and still has much higher to climb next year in 2020 and likely in 2021.
Here is a Gold Chart showing the clear uptrend and Bull market from Dec 2015 through present.
The uptrend channel is perfect with its perfectly parallel boundaries:
Agreed Matthew. That is a classic bull market uptrend channel from late 2015 to present, as is the recent pullback from the top of that channel.
Even still, it is like most people can’t see that clear bull market move, and I’ve had 3-4 people private message me over at ceo.ca asking when I thought the bull market would finally get going. (WTF??)
I responded each time, that we’ve been in a stealth bull market for 3 years now and Gold has risen $500+ since the $1045.40 Major low in Dec 2015 and got up to $1566 earlier this year. They still couldn’t see it.
I showed them charts of miners that surged in 2016, had rallies in Q1 2017, Fall 2017, Q1 2018, Fall 2018, and Q1 2019 then Summer of 2019 and they still couldn’t see it.
The Bull likes to throw as many riders off it’s back as it charges and climbs the wall of worry.
Some things never change…
It’s safe to say that there was plenty of sector rotation from gold/silver into commodities as the former topped and the latter bottomed but the improved outlook for commodities is ultimately supportive of the bullish outlook for the monetary metals.
It has been selective with the commodities as well and not an across the board rally.
Commodities like Nickel or Palladium started heading higher a while ago, while primary commodities like Copper, Zinc, and Lead had very rough year and did recently start getting more of a bid after Gold topped as you mentioned, but it has still been pretty slow going in the commodity stocks.
Also energy commodities like Oil, Uranium, and Lithium had a pretty tough slog to the downside in 2019, but I’d expect them to start turning up more next year from their sentiment being so washed out, and if the Dollar ends up rolling over.
Overall the commodities and PMs have a brighter future ahead of them and the whole resource sector should be getting more generalist investor inflows over the next 2+ years.
Yes, commodities hardly look great in general and it is very early in their recovery, but I think they have bottomed and are heading much higher. The CRB is up 8% in the last two months while gold is down nearly 7%. It is definitely a positive sign for the gold space that commodities are on the move but I don’t think commodities are going to be exciting anytime soon.
As for the dollar, it has already rolled over in real terms and that’s what counts most. Now it is enjoying an oversold bounce versus gold.
Good chart and good points on the CRB and the Dollar.
USD:Gold at speed line and fork resistance:
Bottom line is zinc supplies are at 5 year lows and no new deposits of size are coming online any time soon……..eventually this has to become an issue especially since supplies have been going down at a time that the global economy isn’t firing on all cylinders
Agreed Wolfster, but just look at how trashed the Zinc stocks have been:
The Zinc Explorers and Developers like Tinka, Vendetta, Callinex, ZincX, Fireweed, Cantex have all huge pullbacks and ground investors into the dirt this year.
Even the best turn-around for the mid-size Zinc Producers like Trevali is barely getting noticed for paying down their debt and turning around their operations in a major way.
The smaller Zinc producer Ascendant Resources has also been completely smashed down.
The bifuracation between the supply side picture with insanely low Zinc inventories, several larger projects that came off-line, and the lack of meaningful supply coming online (due to all the developers getting stalled out), and the pricing seen in the miners is puzzling and just shows how inefficient the markets are.
Ironically, Nickel is running higher and higher on the battery metals narrative, where supply is fine, and the battery demand is not imminent or pressing. The global slow down should have pulled Nickel down with Copper and Zinc, but the narrative superceded the supply/demand picture. Ironically, the battery story did not help out Lithium this year at all.
The commodities are at an odd place right now, but have so much more room to the upside, and limited downside, that I’ll hold onto the stocks I hold, but am not in a rush to pile all-in at this point.
Iran says it has discovered a massive new Oil field with 50 Billion barrels
The Associated Press · Nov 10, 2019
“Iran has discovered a new oil field in the country’s south with over 50 billion barrels of crude oil, its president said Sunday, a find that could boost the country’s proven reserves by a third as it struggles to sell energy abroad over U.S. sanctions.”
COPX has done very well since GDX topped but is now overbought. It could become more overbought before consolidating its gains but there is surely money already flowing out and back into GDX, etc.
That’s the dopiest question following such a decline. Could such a fund manager really be that foolish? The answer is of course, yes, and we saw dozens of them in August 2009.
Good Info Cory ! tanks .
Trade War “Phase One” – What Progress is Really Being Made?
Gary Wagner – November 8, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysis #Gold #Chart #VIDEO
Bullion Slammed But Miners Look Decent
Morris Hubbartt – Super Force – Nov 8, 2019 #PreciousMetals #Video #TechnicalAnalysis
Stocks: Big risk, Gold: Big potential
Smart Money Tracker – November 9, 2019 #TechnicalAnalysls #VIDEO
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (11/08/2019)
Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
SILJ is holding above a few important supports and is far above its mid October low:
SILJ smoked silver (SLV) since that low rising about 16% to fork resistance yesterday.
Sprott weekly wrap
Grant Williams: A Reset Of The System Is Inevitable – We need to clear the malinvestment that never got addressed during the GFC
by Adam Taggart – Wednesday, November 6, 2019
“There will be no smooth transition back to sustained economic growth,” he warns.
“Instead, the distortion of today’s excessive asset prices will require a systemic reset to fix. Either by a deflationary event that destroys the malinvestment, or by an inflationary event that destroys the currency.”
“Either way, a shock to the system awaits us…”
The XAU Gold & Silver Index took back its 377 week MA in July and has closed above every week since. Prior to the current action, the last time the index closed a week above that MA was in 2012.The index would have to fall another 4% to test that support again…
The downside risk for silver if the following fork supports are broken is probably about 4% with a worst case of 7-8%.
In a more extreme move, I could see Silver heading down to the 200 day MA at $16.12, but that would be a spot to throw a few more logs on the fire for the next upward burn.
The 200 day MA represents the 4% downside that I mentioned above.
Ah. Thanks. I didn’t do the math on the percentage move on the 200 day MA. Seems like a reasonable place for a bounce.
The positive divergence between gold and the gold miners just got better for the bulls. Gold has taken out Friday’s low while GDM/GDX, HUI, XAU, have not.
Watch for a GDX:GLD move above the 50 day MA. A short squeeze is coming…
Korey, was wondering if you have a list of the companies you are invested in. Would be cool to research them and possibly buy the ones you like. Cheers