Updates On US/China Trade Issues – From Both The US and China Perspective
This week was relatively slow for the markets and general news however some of the developments in the trade talks between the US and China – which are more negative – need to be noted. Chris Temple joins me to outline the comments made by Trump earlier today and recap some of the news from the week. Although the markets haven’t taken significant note of the more negative shift in tone it doesn’t mean it will be ignored for long.
Pieczenik is right about China being a problem, but he’s wrong about China dumping T-Bills.
China HAS been dumping US instruments as fast as it can.
It cannot try to sell $1 Trillion in one go, because there is no buyer capable of spending $1Trillion in one go.
It is much better for China to allow their US assets to mature and not buy new ones.
This is what they are actually doing.
As regards Hong Kong, I hope Trump keeps telling China He is watching.
The poor people living under a broken promise by China deserve at least that.
OXY from several months ago..guess this chart or something…Is now a confirmed 3 drive to the bottom buy..daily
I don’t personally see how the HK dollar to US dollar peg can continue much longer.
Transhipment through Hong Kong is seriously down and continues to drop.
While the US dollar may be the cleanest shirt in the laundry, it is probably over-valued to 20%. (The US dollar appears high because of the economic problems in Europe.)
Hong Kong dollar is potentially capable of a much greater fall than the US dollar.
(Luckily nothing happens quickly unless prompted by current events and the only thing restraining the use of extreme force in Hong Kong by mainland China is Public Opinion.
(China knows it cannot commit a Tienanmen Square type massacre and get away with it this time because of spread of news it cannot control.)
The Hong Kong peg is virtually unbreakable. In simple terms the peg could only be broken if you persuaded Hong Kong residents to exchange half of their total HK$ savings into foreign currency. This is highly unlikely as the HKMA is ruthless and will just push up local interest rates to whatever level it takes to retain deposits. Plus even then they can go to PBoC. Foreign speculators have tried to break the peg loads of times and always lose – HK residents don’t think the peg will ever break the worse will be that China decides to peg the HK$ to CNY.
Meanwhile in the U.S. we suffer…….
We suffer from an antagonistic, do-nothing Democrat House, wasting money on an investigation that is hurting them more than Trump.
We suffer from a gross and obscene invasion and tracking our every aspect of life.
In Europe it seemed a watching TV surveillance camera on every other lamp-post.
In the U.S. it seems like almost every keystroke is tracked by Silicon Valley.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/11/google-facebook-surveillance-privacy/
OPUS 193 China Advantages US Congress’ Stupidity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPElE9Zg-6k