The market is showing us what’s a high quality gold stock vs a low quality Company

January 5, 2021

Dave Erfle, Founder of the Junior Miner Junky joins me to focus on the precious metals sector. We discuss the trading to kick off this year and the potential importance of the PM stocks diverging from the US markets. We also drive down into the stocks and discuss where Dave is focused on investing currently.

Click here to visit the Junior Miner Junky website.

I have an upcoming webinar on January 6th at 11am PST (2pm EST) featuring Newcore Gold (TSX.V:NCAU – OTC:PRCNF). Newcore Gold has a current gold resource of 1.2million ounces and a 58,000 meter drill program underway. Please click the link below to signup for free and have first access to the recording. Also please email me any questions you have for the Company –

Click here to sign up for the webinar.

    Jan 05, 2021 05:47 AM

    Gary Savage says gold will go up for at least 2 months to new all time highs. So glad I bought NULGF, NSRPF, IRVRF, LOMLF, and NFGFF last week.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:17 PM

      That is encouraging to hear from Gary S. The metals are at an inflection point where they can decide to break out of the downward channel they’ve been in for the last 6 months and reach for higher highs, or correct back down to the lower range of the channel before moving higher. Personally, I’d prefer the move higher scenario, but pulled some profits recently, just in case Gold peaks around these levels and heads back down for a while like some have mentioned as a potential path forward.

      Either way, the longer term PM bull market pattern is still doing just fine, so whether we rally in the seasonally strong 1st quarter, or take until later in the year to rally, it doesn’t matter much to me. Selloffs should be accumulated in a bull market, and we get an unseasonal dip here, then I’ll just top up my favorite positions.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:56 PM

        I am wondering if investing in PM is the best thing to do in the current situation

        I think battery metals will outperform PM

        The whole thing might play out like the great pandemic 100 years ago where we had 10 booming years before the big crash came 1929.

          Jan 06, 2021 06:20 AM

          Thomas that is an interesting perspective, on the Battery Metals versus PMs.

          Personally I’m most heavily invested in both Gold & Silver miners, but also have a nice stake in a dozen or so Copper & Nickel/PGM & Lithium stocks. Why not own some in each sector, and rebalance accordingly as the different trends play through.

          In addition, a number of commentators (Keith Neumeyer comes to mind) have made that case that Silver is an important Energy Metal, in that it is highly conductive of electricity, has a huge percentage of demand growing for Solar panels, and is used in all kinds of technology of tomorrow and Electric Vehicles.

          Silver is in that sweetspot as both a precious metal and an industrial energy metal.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:18 AM

            I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the stealth rally that has been going on in the Lithium stocks the last few months. It’s mentioned here on the KER blog a number of times with hardly anyone responding, and yet the companies are clearly thrusting higher.

            The fact that so few are discussing this move higher in Lithium stocks on most of the resource sites and blogs is quite encouraging as it isn’t a froth sentiment, and may fortell of investors from outside the normal resource circles getting invested (likely off the interest in Tesla’s success and battery focus).

            > Even on Tuesday many of the Lithium stocks were…. Energized.

            Symbol – Lithium Stocks – Daily Change %
            IBAT.CN International Battery Metals Ltd. +50.00%
            BRZ.V Bearing Lithium Corp. +33.33%
            AVL.TO Avalon Advanced Materials Inc. +26.09%
            NVT.V Nortec Minerals Corp. +25.00%
            CXO.AX Core Lithium Ltd +20.00%
            LPD.AX Lepidico Limited +18.75%
            LEXI.V Lithium Energi Exploration Inc. +18.18%
            RCK.V Rock Tech Lithium Inc. +17.37%
            LTUM Lithium Corporation +16.10%
            LPI.AX Lithium Power International Limited +15.22%
            JOR.V Jourdan Resources Inc. +12.50%
            ARE.AX Argonaut Resources NL +12.50%
            EP.V Empire Metals Corp. +11.90%
            WML.V Wealth Minerals Ltd. +11.76%
            ASN.AX Anson Resources Limited +9.37%
            VMC.AX Venus Metals Corporation Limited +9.09%
            AGY.AX Argosy Minerals Limited +8.70%
            GNENF Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. +8.54%
            SIE.V Sienna Resources Inc. +8.33%
            LAC Lithium Americas Corp. +8.20%
            SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. +7.65%
            LIT Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF +7.60%
            PLU.V Plateau Energy Metals Inc. +7.32%
            PLS.AX Pilbara Minerals Limited +6.95%
            ALB Albemarle Corporation +6.75%
            LI.V American Lithium Corp. +6.30%
            LIT.AX Lithium Australia NL +5.80%
            FAT.CN Far Resources Ltd. +5.56%
            NLC.V Neo Lithium Corp. +5.53%
            CRE.V Critical Elements Lithium Corporation +5.41%
            VEIN.V Pasofino Gold Limited +5.00%
            POR.V Portofino Resources Inc. +5.00%
            PKX POSCO +4.97%
            RTM.V RT Minerals Corp +4.76%
            SAV.L Savannah Resources Plc +4.00%
            SLL.V Standard Lithium Ltd. +3.44%
            ML.V Millennial Lithium Corp. +3.32%
            BCN.L Bacanora Lithium Plc +3.23%
            LRS.AX Latin Resources Limited +3.03%
            AVZ.AX AVZ Minerals Limited +2.94%
            SGMA.V Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation +2.86%
            PE.V Pure Energy Minerals Limited +2.78%
            FMC FMC Corporation +2.55%
            PLL.AX Piedmont Lithium Limited +2.50%
            MMS.V Macarthur Minerals Limited +2.22%
            KSN.AX Kingston Resources Limited +1.79%
            GXY.AX Galaxy Resources Limited +1.54%
            FL.V Frontier Lithium Inc. +1.32%
            ORE.AX Orocobre Limited +0.81%
            EMH.AX European Metals Holdings Limited +0.42%

            Jan 06, 2021 06:22 AM

            I forgot to include Livent, up over 8% right below Lithium Americas Corp (LAC).

            LTHM Livent Corporation +8.04%

            Jan 06, 2021 06:29 AM

            This video, despite it being from August, actually has a surprisingly dense amount of macro information on the Lithium markets, EVs, batteries, and related topics before getting to his stock picks, and is a great primer for anyone that needs an update on the Lithium demand story. The guy is a bit overly excitable, but the information he compiles and shares is worth the review.


            3 Lithium Mining Stocks about to Explode

            Motivation 2 Invest


            Jan 06, 2021 06:39 AM

            I include copper and nickel as battery metals

            Good copper plays are probably the easiest way
            Same for the large lithium plays (SQM, Albermale, Livent)
            Smaller lithium plays that can compete with the big ones have the highest leverage

            Jan 06, 2021 06:58 AM

            If the Democrats win the senate that will boost the battery metals even more higher

            Jan 06, 2021 06:25 AM

            Agreed Thomas on Copper & Nickel being Battery Metals and had mentioned them briefly up above, but only elaborated on the Lithium stocks stealth bull market.

            Many of the PGM stocks are also Nickel/Copper stocks and they’ve really been on the move along lately as well

            Jan 06, 2021 06:08 AM

            Do you have a list of nickel plays?

            NOT.V Noront Resources + 42.5%

            Jan 06, 2021 06:18 AM

            Yes, I’ve got a Nickel list on my computer, but I’m not in front of it at present, but will post it here later this afternoon.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:14 PM

            Hey Thomas. I’m back in front of my computer again, and here is the watchlist of Nickel companies compiled a little while back. This list may need to be vetted, and keep in mind that almost all base metals projects (whether Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Platinum/Palladium, etc…) are polymetallic, so there are few “pure plays” in any of those metals. As a result some companies may be a primary PGM with huge Nickel credits, or a Copper/Nickel company, or VMS Gold/Copper/Nickel/Silver/Lead/Zinc deposit etc…

            Symbol Companies with Nickel Exposure

            AMC.L Amur Minerals Corp
            AAL.L Anglo American Plc
            ANTO.L Antofagast Plc
            ARL.AX Ardea Resources
            ATL.TO Atlatsa Resources Corp
            ANW.AX Aus Tin Mining
            AUZ.AX Australian Mines
            BAR.TO Balmoral Resources Ltd
            BHP BHP Billiton Ltd
            BTT.V Bitterroot Resources
            BMZ.AX Black Mountain Resources Ltd
            BSX.AX Blackstone Minerals Ltd
            JAY.L Bluejay Mining
            CHEM Canadian Energy Materials Corp
            CML.V Canickel Mining
            CZI.AX Cassini Resources
            CLA.AX Celsius Resources
            CTM.AX Centaurus Metals Ltd
            CXN.TO Chalice Gold Mines Ltd
            NICO.CN Class 1 Nickel and Technologies Ltd
            CLE.V Clean TeQ Holdings
            DKM.AX Duketon Mining
            ERA.PA Eramet SA
            FPX.V First Point Minerals
            FMG.AX Fortescue Metals
            GGI.V Garibaldi Resources
            GIGA.V Giga Metals Corp
            GLEN.L Glencore Plc
            GRDM.V Grid Metals Corp
            PGE.V Group Ten Metals
            HLND Highlands Pacific Ltd
            HZM.TO Horizonte Minerals
            IGO.V Independence Group
            IMT.V International Montoro Resources Inc
            2362.HK Jinchuan Group
            JUB.V Jubilee Platinum
            LND.L Landore Resources
            LEG.AX Legend Mining Ltd
            MLX.AX Metals X
            MCR.AX Mincor Resources
            MTH.AX Mithril Resources Ltd
            MZM.AX Montezuma Mining
            NAM.V New Age Metals Inc.
            NCP.TO Nickel Creek Platinum Corp
            NNN.V Nickel One
            NOB.V Noble Mineral Exploration
            NILSY Norilsk Nickel
            NOT.V Noront Resources
            NAN.V North American Nickel Inc
            KZZ Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd
            PAN.AX Panoramic Resources
            PIO.AX Pioneer Resources Ltd
            POM.TO Polymet Mining
            POS.AX Poseidon Nickel Ltd
            NIC.V Pure Nickel Inc
            RMI.AX Resource Mining Corp
            RIO.L Rio Tinto
            RNKLF RNC Minerals
            RRS.V Rogue Resources Inc
            RXL.AX Rox Resources
            SME.V Sama Resources
            S.TO Sherritt International
            SIE.V Sienna Resources
            S32.AX South32 ltd
            SRCH.V SearchLight Resources
            SHL.V Spruce Ridge Resources
            SGQ.AX St George Mining Ltd
            SX.CN St Georges Eco-Mining
            SMMYY Sumitomo Metal Mining Co
            TLM.AX Talisman Mining
            TTC.CN Tartisan Nickel Corp
            XTM.V Transition Metals
            VALE Vale SA
            WM.TO Wallbridge Mining Co
            WSA.AX Western Areas

            Jan 06, 2021 06:25 PM

            That‘s really a long list -:)

            Only had Noront and Norilsk Nickel in mind as a pure Nickel plays.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:17 PM

            As mentioned in the blurb above the list, many are polymetallic base metals plays (like most base metals plays) with Nickel as a contributing commodity. There are very few “pure play” deposits of any type of base metal, so most are a mixed bag.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:12 AM

            Democrats won the senate.
            That probably will trigger a green energy push and a new boom for battery metals


            Jan 07, 2021 07:20 AM

            That thesis on the increased attention in the green/clean energy and the battery/energy metals makes sense to me Thomas. I’ve gone looking for battery manufacturing videos & analysis, Lithium analysis, and green energy analysis, and I was surprised to see so many younger analysts, pundits, or youtube market commentators already in the space.

            That was one of the points I was trying to make above with Lithium stocks, is that I’m surprised how much they’ve gone up, and I’m talking about 20ish stocks that are the biggest fish in that pond, and most resource sites aren’t really discussing it. It very well may be that the new Robinhood investors that cut their teeth on tech stocks and Tesla, have found their way into battery metals, when typical resource investors have lost interest. This means if the old guard resource investors finally get back allocations in some of the main Lithium names, similar to what is playing out right now with Uranium stocks, that the sector will really get on more people’s radars. I believe this will only amplify their interest in Copper and Nickel, and for the other types of batteries Platinum or even Vanadium.

            It will remain a niche’ sector, but a growing niche sector that grows into a trending market, which should be pretty exciting to be part of.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:25 AM

            That came out weird upon rereading it. I didn’t mean to imply Copper or Nickel were niche sectors, as they are large base metals industrial behemoths. I just meant the clean/green energy commodities like Lithium, Uranium, Vanadium mining companies, and even a resurgence in Rare Earths, as part of the green/clean energy sector is a niche market. There are also big audiences for Solar, Wind, Hydro, Run of River, Geothermal power that are cross pollinating with the Energy metals and Battery metals sectors.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:54 PM


      I have much respect for gary and unlike ex I will make a prediction and bold call because that’s what glen does. I don’t flip back and forth I’m a straight shooter I think Matt understand me. Matt may disagree but gold won’t surpass all time high in two months. If I’m wrong I will eat crow!


    Jan 05, 2021 05:48 AM

    Forgot to mention I also bought AUIAF@2.41 last week and it is 3.02 now.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:26 AM

      Good stuff. Best of luck.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:28 PM

        Hey David – I just responded back to you in the Ed Moya blog at the bottom regarding some recent trades. Sorry for the delay – just now saw it.

          Jan 05, 2021 05:50 PM

          Thanks. I will look.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:08 PM

      Jaja good one jerry! Please don’t think I’m being bearish it’s nothing more then an inverse head and shoulders taking place which will be longer then Gary’s timeline. This is super bullish! The longer the setup the bigger the rise

        Jan 07, 2021 07:05 AM

        Thanks Glen………..appreciate….

    Jan 05, 2021 05:10 AM
      Jan 05, 2021 05:08 PM

      I was wondering which company was going to pick off TMAC after the Shandong Gold deal fell through due to pushback to the Chinese conglomerate buying it. Looks like Agnico Eagle bellied up to the bar and picked it up. Good on them…

    Jan 05, 2021 05:18 PM

    Look at Franco Nevada, virtually flat the last 8-9 months, go figure

      Jan 05, 2021 05:48 PM

      I am not surprised. Such quality/safety is not ideal in a bull market which is why FNV fell as much as 60% versus SILJ since March. Gold dropped 45% versus silver since March for the same reason.
      FNV is really a finance company (a great one, of course) so it’s not surprising that it has been in a huge bull market since 2008 (rising 1,800%). It is on a new monthly MACD sell signal now and is likely to underperform the miners even if it avoids falling apart versus the dollar. RGLD doesn’t look any better and I’d bet that MTA will top way ahead of the miners and ultimately underperform them during the intermediate term move that is beginning now.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:56 PM

        The FNV:GDX chart is telling. FNV went up 8x versus GDX between 2011 and 2015 but has gone essentially sideways since while FNV:GDX technicals have deteriorated. The picture is one of distribution which supports my view that FNV will fall significantly versus GDX/the gold (and silver) miners in the years ahead.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:16 PM

      It should be pointed out that in holding a company like (FNV) FrancoNevada that there is more than just price action to consider, as many larger investors are storing their money in it for the Dividend payments, and one would need to consider a decade of dividends in conjunction with price action to get the proper comparison, and that won’t show up on a price chart in an of itself.

      It is true that the larger royalty companies like Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, and Wheaton Precious metals have slowed in their advance, but just look at how well the mid-tier Royalty companies (like Metalla or Maverix) have done or the Jr Royalty companies (like Ely “Gold or Abitibi Royalties) have done in comparison to many mines, and their outperformance paired with more diversification and less execution risk (some modicum of “safety”) was well worth the candle.

      I’d anticipate that even the mid-tiers will slow in their advances though, after reaching such heights over the last few years.

      There are a number of newer royalty companies out like Nomad, Elemental, Vox, Orogen, Sailfish, Trident, and the just launched Empress Royalty that have more room to appreciate.

      Lastly, there is the growing interest in the base metals royalties like Altius Minerals, Anglo Pacific Group, and Nova Royalty that all show promise to keep expanding.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:38 PM

        Here is a 3 Year Performance Chart of GDX and 11 other Royalty companies, starting back in Jan 4, 2018 and running through today Jan 5, 2021

        (GDX) VanEck Gold Miners ETF – up 65.18%
        (FNV) Franco-Nevada – up 75.71%
        (WPM) Wheaton Precious Metals – up 112.90%
        (RGLD) Royal Gold – up 35.7%
        (SAND) Sandstorm Gold – up 42.23%
        (OR) Osisko Gold Royalties – up 20.63%
        (MMX) Maverix Metals – up 113.64%
        (MTA) Metalla Royalty – up 441.4%
        (ELY.V) Ely Gold Royalties – up 917.39%
        (RZZ.V) Abitibi Royalties – up 163.86%
        (FISH.V) Sailfish Royalty – up 1.67%
        (EMX) EMX Royalty – up 317.51%,FNV,WPM,RGLD,SAND,OR,MMX,MTA,ELY.V,RZZ.V,FISH.V,EMX&p=6&O=111000

          Jan 05, 2021 05:51 PM

          Performance Chart of GDX and 11 other Royalty companies coming off the March Sector Low on March 18, 2020 through present.

          (GDX) VanEck Gold Miners ETF – up 96.65%

          (FNV) Franco-Nevada – up 28.04%
          (WPM) Wheaton Precious Metals – up 78.42%
          (RGLD) Royal Gold – up 60.10%
          (SAND) Sandstorm Gold – up 57.11%
          (OR) Osisko Gold Royalties – up 95.81%
          (MMX) Maverix Metals – up 110.08%
          (MTA) Metalla Royalty – up 229.09%
          (ELY.V) Ely Gold Royalties – up 105.26%
          (RZZ.V) Abitibi Royalties – up 95.32%
          (FISH.V) Sailfish Royalty – up 110.34%
          (EMX) EMX Royalty – up 199.19%

            Jan 05, 2021 05:56 PM

            Lows to highs are what matter to me, not lows through present.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:04 PM

            Understood. That would be much more time consuming to post each range individually. March 18th or 19th was the sector low in most PM stocks, and is plenty fine to illustrate the point that many royalty companies outperformed the miners in the very bullish run from the pandemic shock correction low to present.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:20 PM

            To make it crystal clear, I am not saying that outperformance will continue, as I expect the miners will begin to outperform most of the royalty companies moving forward. The facts simply point out that many royalty companies did far better than most expected the last few years and even over the bullish last 9 months in the PM sector.

            It is relevant to take a look back, because there were many prominent voices that were stating they’d underperform the miners for the last few years, and those people were incorrect and missed a solid opportunity.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:21 PM

            No Ex, it’s not plenty fine. GDX went up 184%, not 97%. Considering the way royalty stocks move, your approach was probably disproportionately hard on the miners. I didn’t check, it could be hard on the royalties as well but more of them are making highs now rather than 5 months ago like the miners.
            The funny thing is, this ignores the miners that really did well. Impact went up almost 6 times and Brixton went up 7 times and many others did as well or better.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:53 PM

            Yes Matthew it is plenty fine to look at returns from a major inflection point to present day.

            I completely understand the point your were making quite well Matthew, and already stated that it would have been much more time consuming to post each low to high range for every stock individually. It wouldn’t have changed the main point that seem lost on you, that many royalty companies outperformed the GDX over the last few years, and even since last March.

            Honestly, I didn’t pick the Sector Low for all asset classes to be hard on the miners (which I own a ton of and have way more weight to than the royalty companies), so that assertion is ridiculous. I already explained why I picked both time periods if you’d read my actual responses, instead of postulating why you think I did something.

            Look these charts were for quick demonstration purposes, but you want to argue with point using Brixton and Impact which aren’t even in the GDX or even close to comparable to a royalty company, so you’re just cheery picking to be right on some abstract point.

            Again, the performance chart from Jan 2018 was as far back as I could go in stockcharts based on the companies selected, and the last few years has been plenty bullish for the Precious Metals sector, so should give an indication of how things played out. If I could have gone back 10 years I would have to show a longer time period, but not all the royalty companies were around back then. The ones that were around still outperformed the miners as general trend. You may not like that, but that is what played out.

            More importantly, I picked the performance chart off the March 18 sector low on the second chart because that was macro pandemic event that caused a crash in all asset classes and was a major low in the in whole PM sector. That is a very fair place to start measuring performance from, and I didn’t think it would be met with any insults or negative comments when posting it, because it is just performance data off the low to present day.

            If you want to get into low to high performance then many of the royalty companies would likewise have much higher numbers and still outpeformed the GDX. If you want to cherry pick then Ely Gold Royalties was up 1300%+ at one point as an example, crushing almost all mining stocks. There are always outliers, but as a general theme, many of the mid to small royalty companies outperformed the miners on any time period since March, and over most time periods the last few years.

            Metalla – MTA’s low was actually on March 13th at $3.51 and raised up to $13.05 today far outperforming most Gold mining stocks, and it would have been more idea to use that date if I was trying to be hard on the miners (which I wasn’t).

            Metalla was my largest weighting in a royalty company most of last year, and I had mentioned so a few different times, and was vocal about picking up in March & April of last year as I was doing it “real time”. You posted something a few months back about being in Metalla for short time, but feeling it was looking top heavy and that there were better opportunities, discussing buying things like BBB and MUX that got crushed in comparison to how Metalla performed.

            Now, at this point, yes Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, so I liquidated a big piece of my position in MTA yesterday and today, but was sure glad I was invested in it more than Brixton. The reverse situation is now setting up, where I believe moving forward that Brixton will gain on Metalla, (even though it is silly to compare a $508 Million Mid-tier Royalty company with a $53 Million Jr Gold/Silver explorer, as they are apples and oranges and different stages of exposure to the Precious Metals space).

            If you want to go ahead and look at trough to peak performance for every single royalty company since March, or since 2019 or 2018, or whenever then knock yourself out. The point was simply that not all royalty companies will have the same performance as Franco Nevada, and many have out-performed the miners for years now. Yes there individual periods where miners have had fantastic gains, if you traded them perfectly (and all traders, including you are nowhere close to perfect), but of course that is the case, and why we all speculate in Jr miners.

            I’ll say it for the 4th or 5th time, that moving forward, I’d expect the miners to outpeform the royalty companies during bullish phases, but they also won’t get crushed as hard during selloffs. They are a different (not better or worse) kind of PM exposure than investing in Senior Producers, which is different than investing in smaller Jr producers, and much different than investing in advanced developers, or Jr explorers. It’s just another way to invest in PMs other than the metal itself, and overall royalty companies have a superior longer term business model with more revenue per employee, less execution risk from 1-2 projects, a diversified basket of assets, and they get paid on back end production over many years, despite the gyrations of the individual miners. For the coming leg of the bull market, I like the Jr Miners best, the Mid-tiers second best, I don’t hold the Majors, and I like the Royalty companies for less volatile exposure to PMs. I don’t expect a Mid-tier like Maverix to perform like a small explorer, as they achieve different purposes in my portfolio.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:04 PM

            Remember this folks,

            There are many story tellers in this world and in the markets! Many pundits who preach the word of technical analysis or direction if market. And what do May realize? They lose money with them hand over fist. Point being is I’ve been through it all and Blue collar, university candidate and well groomed wall street players lose money more often then none.. I’ve learned economics on my own 10 year course 12 hours a day self made man. Been through it all and street smart or say trading street smart. If it sounds to good it’s bs. Glen has a record you all know..

            Gold will head higher in due term!


            Jan 06, 2021 06:00 AM

            Thomas – I had read that same article from Taylor Dart on Sandstorm recently, and was surprised he was more bullish than he normally is (as he is bearish on about 3/4 of the companies he covers, even when they are surging higher). It was still kind of a back handed compliment to (SAND) but at least he acknowledged that after the 35% pullback in Sandstorm recently that it represents better value.

            I picked up some (SAND) on 12/21/20 at $7.54 and 12/22/20 at $7.13 (so my cost basis is $7.34), and feel it has a good chance of getting back up close to it’s recent peak of $10.54. That wouldn’t be a wild gain, like we see in the Jr Miners, but I parked some funds in SAND specifically for some of the reasons mentioned above.

            Overall royalty companies have a superior longer term business model, with more revenue per employee, less execution risk from 1-2 projects like individual miners, they a diversified basket of assets (Sandstorm has over 200 royalties and streams which is quite impressive), and they get paid on back-end production over many years, while their individual mining partners are the ones doing most of the capital raising, share dilution, and taking most of the risks. Royalty companies simply harvest the cream off the top.

            Again, I don’t expect them to outperform most individual gold miners in a raging bull market, but if we do get some market dislocations and the miners take it in the pants, I also don’t see as much downside from here in a company like Sandstorm.

            Just another iron in the PM fire. 🙂

            Jan 06, 2021 06:02 AM

            Zacks: Analysts Anticipate Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SAND) (SSL) Will Announce Earnings of $0.06 Per Share

            by Liza Goodheart on Jan 1st, 2021


            Jan 06, 2021 06:03 AM

            Ex, good decision to take profits on MTA

            I made the comment some days ago that MTA looks overpriced compared to NSR

            There is also a nice article on seeking alpha, pointing in the same direction


            Jan 06, 2021 06:17 AM

            Agreed Thomas, and I stated up above that Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, which is why I sold a big chunk yesterday and today.

            There may still be some more upside left, but in this case it’s had one hell of a run from MTA’s low on March 13th at $3.51 and raised up to close at $13.05 today, far outperforming most Gold mining stock during that time period. I am looking to deploy those funds into Gold & Silver Producers, and am just trying to figure out which positions I want to top up. I want to get through any political noise from tomorrows US election circus first, and if we do get the sell down Glen and Doc expect, then I’ll move those MTA funds into a new home.

          Jan 05, 2021 05:58 PM

          Those who do well in this sector time the intermediate moves at least so 3 year performance is meaningless. In fact, applying the past to the present is also meaningless, or worse, if you don’t chose the right part of the past. In other words, choosing a royalty company 3, 5, or 10 years ago is meaningless to a decision about choosing one today since no part of the fundamental or technical backdrop of those times are similar to today. The charts tell the tale.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:10 PM

            Agreed, that ultimately one ones to look at individual trough to peak performance from the lows to the highs for the performance, but that would take charting each royalty companies range individually versus GDX’s range.

            I never said anything about applying the past to the future. The data simply shows that many royalty companies out-peformed the Sr miners as the PM bull market has unfolded.

            I provided the 3 year look back at performance, because that is as far back I as could go in stockcharts with the selected companies, (likely because one of the companies listed started trading back in Jan of 2018).

            I also provided a look back at how the Royalty companies and GDX have performed coming out of the March 18th sector low as the pandemic shock correction hit all markets and assets classes across the board with the same bearish macro event.

            To see how they’ve all performed from the March lows to present is quite relevant and far from meaningless. It clearly shows that a number of Royalty companies still out-peformed the Sr Gold miners once again, even when all sectors rose quite substantially out of that bottom. If we adjusted for most opportune timing, that was the moment to look at where everything was plumbing it’s lows.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:54 PM

            You didn’t have to say anything about applying the past to the present or future because that’s what you/we are doing when we use charts. There would be no reason to bring them up otherwise. We invest in the present with expectations about the future based on the past. That’s what charts are all about. The key is to compare apples to apples with respect to cycles, i.e., where we’re at with respect to underlying trends.
            During the bear market we had after 2011, royalty companies clearly were top performers, on average and the charts tell me that they will not be near the top when this new bull market ends. Again, some smaller companies can and will do better because they’re on a different trajectory with respect to growth but the well-established names are unlikely to beat the miners.
            The moves off the March low are definitely more relevant but we can’t say they’re “far from meaningless” in general. The reason is that the technical shape today is what matters, not at the March low. For example, MTA looks like it will top soon versus SILJ, as I stated earlier. Of course that’s not a “done deal” but it’s close and the risk/reward of SILJ is clearly superior intermediate to long term. In the very short term, some outperformance by MTA wouldn’t surprise me.
            I would have a helluva lot less net worth right now had I chosen FNV or RGLD at the March low and the same probably goes for many smaller companies.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:15 PM

            Charts are the data collected from the past and not intended to extrapolate out into the future at the same rate. They are simply a screenshot of what happened, and what happened was many of the royalty companies outperformed GDX in the last few years, and even since the March sector low to present, which was a very bullish time for the Precious Metals sector.

            That data on the charts was far from meaningless, as many of us on here had mentioned positioning in the Mid to small royalty companies (like Metalla, Maverix, Abitibi/Golden Valley, EMX, Ely gold, Sailfish, Elemental, Nomad, the last few years and during the March lows, and they have been quite solid investments.

            Personally, I’ve not ever advocated that Franco or Royal would outperform the miners in this bullish cycle, but respect that some investors are putting money in those for dividends and more stable longer term growth. Those types of investors in FNV or RGLD often do not have the same risk appetites for investing in the riskier Jr mining sector or even stand alone Sr producers. Franco attracts the most conservative type of PM investor, and is nothing like investing in smaller Silver producers, or Gold developers, or PM explorers. They are apples and oranges.

            Lastly, I never stated or indicated that the royalty companies would keep outperforming the miners into to future, and in fact, stated several times now that I agree with you that they’ve gotten a bit lofty in valuation, and that moving forward the miners will likely outperform.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:40 PM

            Re: “Charts are the data collected from the past and not intended to extrapolate out into the future…” That is correct but does not have anything to do with the fact that charts are used to make decisions today and form expectations about the future. The last thing I would advocate for is extrapolation but that’s exactly what you are doing when making a case for your royalties based on past performance. This is where you and I have had trouble in the past. I am always looking at the picture today, because today is all we have, while you bring up all kinds of things that have no bearing on the reasons for my investment decisions. Brixton is a good example. You held it through thick and thin and didn’t like it as a result. I had no such baggage but you thought your points were material to the present situation. They weren’t and it went up massively like I thought it would.
            That’s the situation now. The future can prove me wrong, not past performance, especially not past performance based on measures “to the present” or over three years that only a non technical buy-and-holder would care about (wrongly, I might add).

            Jan 05, 2021 05:13 PM

            Matthew we just look at things very differently, but the issues we’ve had in the past were when you would twist what I was saying into something I wasn’t saying, when you’d skip/delete/ignore whole points of the position I was making, or when you’d make it personal getting ugly and start insulting. Let’s not go there again.

            I mentioned for several years that I was positioning in Royalty companies, and quite often you’d chime in about they’d underperform the miners in a big bull run. I actually agreed with you many times and on many points, just like I’ve done today, and you don’t accept the agreement, but shift the discussion in to different areas, deflecting or looking to be right on some narrow philosophical point you wanted to make.

            The charts I posted are not meaningless, and show black & white pricing data that many royalty companies, particularly the medium to small companies, actually outperformed the GDX during very bullish periods for the miners. That is all those posts were demonstrating, and I’ve stated several times, I don’t expect that continue. For you to continue to claim you know what I’m doing and that it’s to extrapolate out those same results into the future is disingenuous an incorrect.

            As for Brixton, we disagree with the fundamentals on the company, why it initially surged so hard outperforming so many other companies in 2016 (and I was invested in it then and following it closely), and their strategy & execution over 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. I actually posted regularly on what I was doing with my position this last summer and mentioned selling he majority of my position (3/4 of it) near the highs. I bought back in reluctantly as it corrected, because I still felt it had further to run, but in hindsight that was a mistake. I should have sold all of the position last summer and not re-entered because it has been a sector laggard and underperformed most of the other Silver developers and Silver explorers for the last 5 months. I sold that new position as a tax loss in December, and need to wait until mid January to get back in, because I do feel it has room to catch up. Even the last 2 days when many Silver & Gold explorers were up handsomely, Brixton was down, so it hasn’t been a pillar of strength, or even a good stock pick since last spring to summer. Let’s move on from Brixton, as you’ve got a large position in it an get all bent out of shape every time we discuss it.

            My main point last summer in July and August was that the BPGDM reading was buried at 100 and historically that portends to frothy markets and big correction coming in the miners. You gave me a particularly hard time about it every time I posted on it, so I just quit discussing it, but that is why I was pulling profits in Jr miners last July & August, and was 100% correct in doing so, as that did mark the top in the miners for the last 5 months.

            Clive Maund just made that point again in the article that was discussed on yesterday’s blog, but I was making that point as it was happen. “Real time” in Glen’s vernacular, and it was met with insults and dismissed by you and your charting.


            Matthew – You rarely mention any of the points I get correct in our “interactions”, side-step any points I bring up that counter your thesis, won’t admit that you’ve been wrong on any points, and typically find ways to take jabs or get nasty out of anger, so I’ve tried to limit our interactions on here.

            Today is another example. All I did was post data showing many royalty companies actually outperformed the GDX, and you had to take issue with it, be snarky in your responses, and said the data was all meaningless. Then you took it a step further, and implied you know better than me what I meant, and that my intention was to extrapolate that performance into the future; even though what I stated in responses (repeatedly) was just the opposite of that.

            Once again, we’ll just have to agree to disagree, and we see things mostly the same, but very differently on a few issues. I always give you the latitude to have your own thesis, congratulate your work often, and don’t try to argue just for the sake of it. Please extend me the same professional curtesy, and don’t put words in my mouth, and we’d likely get along great, like we did for so many years on here.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:36 PM

            There’s simply no getting through to you, Ex, so I won’t be reading either of your last two books here. That’s my honest assessment first and foremost, any insult is secondary. You do not get what you don’t get and engaging me because of my comment to Marty served no valuable purpose whatsoever despite your clear belief to the contrary.
            Today and months ago, you have no idea how many times you’ve incorrectly addressed my problems with your positions and it will stay that way because it would wear me out to explain so many things that shouldn’t need further explanation. It’s not just your “understanding” of charts and it’s perplexing because you aren’t stupid.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:49 PM

        A 1 percent yield is worth calculating when you consider the numbers we’re dealing with. FNV went up over 700% versus GDX in 5 years and it will give back a large part of that huge amount. So, up or down, the yield is relatively meaningless. I think it’s safe to say that the majority of investors in this space are chasing big gains so holding FNV comes with a significant opportunity cost regardless of yield.
        Priced in GDX, FNV and RGLD are on sell signals:

          Jan 05, 2021 05:57 PM

          Yeah, I agree with you that holding FNV or RGLD in a blazing bull market will come with opportunity cost, and also agree that most of the quality mining stocks will outperform the larger royalty companies as things unfold. The Royalties were some of the best vehicles during the bear market years for sure, but will pale in the bull market years. However, many of the Mid-tier to Jr Royalty companies did outperform the basket of GDX Producers over the last 3 years and even last year, so not every royalty company will be a laggard. Having said that, companies like Metalla, or Ely, or EMX have really run hard, and will likely start losing ground to the Gold miners over time from current levels.

          My point was that the type of investor storing large amounts of money in Franco-Nevada, is looking for Dividends, and a bit safer appreciation over time, compared to folks that want the bigger risk/reward gains that individual mining companies offer.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:04 PM

            FNV wasn’t in a bear market at all during the last 12 years and for good reasons. Likewise, it probably won’t be in one for much longer, at least not relative to the miners.
            The smaller royalty plays stand a better chance of continuing higher but even they are out of sync. MTA vs SILJ, for example, looks like it will top soon.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:06 PM

            As far as safety or investor appetites go, there’s always something for everyone in these markets.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:00 PM

            I realize FNV wasn’t in a bear, during 2011 – 2015, but the Gold sector was across the board, and we’ve been comparing the miners to royalty companies. My point was the Gold/Silver Royalty companies like Franco, Royal, Wheaton, Osisko, did better during the PM bear market than the miners did, as a safer investment, since they still had good revenues coming in off their streams and NSRs regardless of the hardships the individual miners were facing.

            I agree with you that in a bull market, that basket of royalties will underperform the individual miners.

            As for the Mid-tier to smaller royalty companies (like Metalla, Maverix, Nomad, Abitibi, EMX, Ely, etc…) , they’ve been quite leveraged to rising metals prices, but their valuations have gotten a bit lofty, so I’d anticipate better appreciation in the Jr miners moving forward.

            Personally, I still have a solid allocation to 9 royalty companies at present, because I’m not sure what potential pitfalls are in store for 2021 with all the monetary and geopolitical changes at hand, so I figure they’d likely pull back less during any corrective moves, while still gradually accumulating gains as the metals rise.

    Jan 05, 2021 05:37 PM

    KITCO DOWN????????????????/

    Jan 05, 2021 05:07 PM
    Jan 05, 2021 05:01 PM

    HEY …..BITcoin….and the OCC………..hummm
    WASHINGTON—The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) today published a letter clarifying national banks’ and federal savings associations’ authority to participate in independent node verification networks (INVN) and use stablecoins to conduct payment activities and other bank-permissible functions.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:37 PM

      Yep. No doubt that banks are going to want to use their own stablecoins and digital currency processes. In one sense this further underpins the usage of blockchain technology as data security, authentication, and tracking innovation, but it does compete directly with cryptos outside of the banking control – like Bitcoin, Litecoin, Monero, and the other cryptos, so that is headwind for them.

      There is little doubt that in a not so distant future, everyone will be forced into the digital currency realm, and when banks or countries come up with their “centralized” versions of these digital currencies, it will be to further control their populace and erode even more personal freedoms and anonymity. They will make big strides to “tame Bitcoin” as that piece in Zero Hedge posited.

      It’s a brave new world…

        Jan 05, 2021 05:37 PM

        Global Elites Plan To Destroy Credit Scores & Enslave You With Cryptocurrency

        I Love Prosperity – Dec 26, 2020

        “In this video we explore a lot about cryptocurrency, the global elites plan, the IMF discussing a credit score system that takes in your browsing history, and much more.”

          Jan 05, 2021 05:43 PM

          This latest interview with Max Kaiser was pretty good (and less chaotic than some of his other ones with Daniela)

          He addresses a number of fallacies in the bear argument or common on the street putdowns about Bitcoin, that people make that don’t really understand how it works or it’s value proposition. I don’t agree with him on every point, as he is a fanatic and comes to some extreme philosophical positions on monetary policy, but Max isn’t a dummy, and does make a number of solid points worthy of consideration.


          Max Keiser Reveals Bitcoin Price Forecast for 2021, After Nailing 2020 Call

          Stansberry Research – Jan 5, 2020 #VIDEO interview

          “In 2018, Keiser forecasted that bitcoin would end 2020 around $28,000 a coin – the crypto ended up closing the year at $29,000 a coin, making Keiser’s prediction the most accurate compared to other crypto experts.”

          “Speaking with Daniela Cambone as part of the Outlook 2021 series, Keiser also shares his forecasts for gold and silver. During the interview, Keiser is asked about bitcoin being the ultimate bubble waiting to burst, about those that call it a Ponzi scheme and whether tether is manipulating the price of bitcoin higher.”

            Jan 05, 2021 05:05 PM

            I was just over at stansberry… funny bitcoin $220,000 by Oct , Nov…

            Jan 05, 2021 05:07 PM

            Not saying bitcoin at that number, just funny , we are all on the same pages…., and I was just going to post the video….

            Jan 05, 2021 05:45 PM

            Yes, some of the calls higher in Bitcoin are getting pretty wild, but so were people calling for $5,000 , $10,000, or $20,000 Gold every year for over a decade now. I take all those calls with a grain of salt, and just consider…. so it sounds like there is room for it to run higher.

            Nobody knows what the future holds, and Bitcoin is untethered to most other assets and is demonstrating the reaction of some investors to the increase in money supply. As Max & Daniela discussed, there are also plenty of momentum traders that just see a speculative asset going up and are piling in, without the monetary philosophical investment thesis, and that happens in everything from Apple and Tesla stock, to Cannabis companies, to Covid-19 vaccine stocks. Speculators will speculate… and hot money begets more hot money, until the bubble bursts.

            I first looked at bitcoin in 2011/2012 and told my friends they were playing with fires and it seemed like a flash in the pan. Then in 2014/2015 I had another group of contacts urging me to get in, and I spent all my time warning them of the dangers (the power could go out, the internet could be taken away, it was just tulip mania, there was no intrinsic value, etc… etc…).

            Then after learning more about the computing power and proof of work behind the cryptos, to validate transactions, I bit the bullet and got invested in Bitcoin & Ethereum miners in 2017; all while commenting at the time it was an irrational bubble and would end badly for many.

            I made some money on the upside in 2016 and into 2017, and stayed invested a bit too long as the correction started in losing some money, but overall ended up with a small gain from the whole experience. Many of the BS companies got wiped out during the 2017- 2019 crypto correction, and there was a change in the kind of investors coming in by this year in 2020 – more institutional funds, more family funds, more billionaires, etc…

            I almost bought into Bitcoin when it was in the $3K-$10K range on a few occasions, but was far more interested in sticking with the resource stocks. However, this year, after digesting about 50-60 hours of more information, reading a great deal, and learning more.

            I mentioned a few different times on the KER from August to October layering into the (GBTC) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in the $11-$13 range, when Bitcoin was in the $10K-$12K range and that I felt it looked primed to head higher, and potentially take out the prior 2017 high.

            GBTC closed today at $39.41, and Bitcoin is about $33,600, so they’ve tripled in the last 4-5 months. I’m happy getting a triple in any asset class, and have now trimmed back a great deal of the profits in my GBTC position, but as I’ve stated a few times, my biggest regret was not getting more exposure to Ethereum and in particular the crypto miners. Many of them are up 5-20 times in the same time period, and like em’ or love em’ they’ve been insanely high returns for those that took the investment risk.

            As for the future, it is unknown, but I’m a much bigger fan of decentralized cryptos than the new centralized digital currencies that banks and nations are about unleash on the world. Maybe they will go further than “taming Bitcoin” and may outright ban it, making it illegal. It’s unlikely that all countries in the world will make Bitcoin and the 100 other cryptos all illegal at the same moment though, so some form of money “outside the system” will persist, as the cat’s out of the bag at this point.

            It just seemed like a good risk/reward set up to me a few months back, it was a nice return on capital invested, and if the cryptos get pummeled in a big correction in the months to come, I may add back to the position I’ve pulled profits on and get into a few of the crypto miners.

            Regardless of someone’s position on it, there is no doubt it’s been an interesting development and phenomenon to follow since it was created post Great Financial Crisis and in particular the attention it garnered the last 3-4 years.

            The madness of crowds will persist, and the cheese will keep moving, but some form of digital currency, and sideline to that, the blockchain technology is here to stay.

            Ever Upward!

            Jan 05, 2021 05:02 PM

            I think you are going to make some money on the bitcoin GBTC…, my wife says, no to me on the stocks….phyz only…. 🙂

            Jan 05, 2021 05:01 PM

            Thanks OOTB, and yes I already have made good money on the GBTC trade.

            As for your wife saying no to investing in the miners, and making you stick with the physical, you’ll sleep better at night as it is far less volatile. Besides…. “Happy wife = happy life.” 🙂

            I’d point out that she didn’t say anything about not buying the ETFs…. (lol).

            Maybe you could show her that GDXJ and SILJ are actually a basket of 50 stocks, so there isn’t the individual company risk, but you’ll still catch the outperformance of the miners over the metals. Just a thought…


            Jan 05, 2021 05:32 PM

            Going on 50 yrs of marriage this year……so, they say only 7% can say that,, I think I need to keep the boss happy….. 🙂

            Jan 05, 2021 05:46 PM

            +50 Congratulations OOTB. Yes, that is becoming a rarity.

            My lady and I just crossed the 21 year mark, and for some reason she still puts up with me and seems to enjoy my company. We’ll see how it goes… 😉

            Jan 05, 2021 05:17 PM

            If, you made it past 7, and she is still happy, you are well on your way…..congrads…

            Jan 05, 2021 05:46 PM

            +7 Thanks OOTB…. Das BOOT, or da Claw…. Contrarian’s Contrarian Frank…. CCF.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:07 AM

      Bitcoin just made another new all time high a few hours ago getting up to $35,868.

      It really has been on quite a tear higher the last few months, and especially the last few weeks.

    Jan 05, 2021 05:03 PM

    GSR……..70 to 1……silver taking the lead….

      Jan 05, 2021 05:45 PM

      Yes, always nice for the whole PM sector to see Silver taking the lead.

        Jan 06, 2021 06:54 AM

        Silver futures at $27.825 in overseas trading… looking good!

          Jan 06, 2021 06:07 AM

          Silver broke through the $28 level – at $28.05 at present.

          Break on through to the other side… 🙂

            Jan 06, 2021 06:02 AM

            …. and Silver gets the early morning slap down back to $27.50…..

    Jan 05, 2021 05:04 PM

    On January 5, 2021 at 9:52 am,
    irishtony says:

    I know this is the wrong page to post this. But sod it here goes.
    I would just like to say to all my American friends. Good look for tommorrow .
    For its the day , when The Republic can be saved for another day, or lost forever.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:06 PM

      Any page is the right page for the IRISH…….
      Thanks for the concerns…..WE HAVE A SIck Nation and world….

        Jan 05, 2021 05:08 PM

        Politicians are not going to do the right thing……
        Pence is on the HOT SEAT tonight and tomorrow…..
        MSN… beating a drum that the stupid love the sound of….

          Jan 05, 2021 05:48 PM

          Governments rule by consent of the governed.
          I will NEVER accept Biden as my president.
          Democrats tried to steal the election beyond any shadow of doubt.
          They lost my consent.

            Jan 05, 2021 05:01 PM

            The sheeple , have given them the consent, out of stupidity…..

            Jan 05, 2021 05:18 PM

            The sheeple are still wearing mask, ….required by the govt…..we did not give them the consent, ….the sheeple just rolled over…..

            Jan 05, 2021 05:44 PM

            In 6 states the “rules” of the elections were modified by Governors and Secretaries of state. But the Constitution ONLY allows the rules to be created by the state LEGISLATURES, not Governors or others.
            Thus in those 6 states improper (illegal) elections were held. If the elections are illegal, are the results valid ? NO. If the results are not valid, are those electors permitted to give elector votes, or can Pence reject them as being invalid. WHEN THOSE 6 ELECTORS’ VOTES ARE NOT COUNTED…..TRUMP WINS

            Jan 05, 2021 05:09 PM

            People do not understand the constitution, and therefore lost…..they can not debate it, nor know it, …they depend on the corrupt govt leadership to tell them , what and how to think…..

    Jan 05, 2021 05:21 PM

    Look out FedX , UPS………..Amazon buy some planes…..

      Jan 05, 2021 05:02 PM

      Uh-oh. Amazon also has delivery drones. Jeff B has money to spend…

    Jan 05, 2021 05:59 PM

    Early indicators are that the $1950 region could be a short term top for gold as Glenfidish stated. The next day or two should tell us more. Hopefully we power on through by end of January and maybe shoot north of $2000.

    Jan 05, 2021 05:21 PM

    These are the wishes this far of Gary, bonzo, ex, yourself and possibly many others. That’s why glen is unique and different lol all In good fun ozi. It’s range bound for sometime before heading higher. Longer then Gary’s prediction or ex.

      Jan 05, 2021 05:13 PM

      Hey Glen – just for clarity, I didn’t make and prediction. Yesterday I simply agreed with Clive’s point that we are at an inflection point where Gold can either:

      A) break out of 6 month downtrend channel and then move higher to test the recent peak from last year of o$1966, and then if there is enough juice possibly make a move at last year’s peak of $2089.20


      B) continue in the rangebound downward channel getting deflected from current levels. That would align with your thesis about Gold topping in the $1950-$1960 area, which is where we are currently, and then head down to the $1880 – $1850 range.

      Here is that excerpt from Clive’s piece again, that outlines the 2 potential paths forward.


      Clive Maund wrote:

      “On the 6-month chart we can see gold’s corrective downtrend from its highs of last August in detail. Right now it is at the upper boundary of this downtrend and so it could react back again. However, various factors suggest that it will soon get on with it and break out of this downtrend, which should lead to a vigorous ascent. If it should react back somewhat short-term it will simply be viewed as another buying opportunity.”

      Here was the associated chart from Clive’s piece:

        Jan 05, 2021 05:19 PM

        I also agreed yesterday with the point Clive brought up about the BPGDM indicator.

        Glen, if you recall last July and August, I pointed out several times that a 100 reading on the BPGDM typically indicated a frothy mining market and top would likely come over the next few weeks (and did it in “real time” as you like to say, while it was playing out).

        I mentioned that was my thesis for taking some profits out of the gold miners from late July through August, and it was precisely the right call as the miners pulled back for the last 4 1/2 months since that overbought level. Those were the only technical comments I made yesterday, except for asking for clarity on your statement about 1950 being the head of an inverse head and shoulders, which was clarified yesterday.


      Jan 05, 2021 05:25 PM

      Yeh hence why I used the term “hopefully” as it is my hope that we see gold get to and over $2000 soon. But it is my expectation that we do consolidate for a little while. Rambus in his chartology report on gold gives a detailed possibility of this consolidation and it is thorough.

        Jan 05, 2021 05:42 PM

        Ozibatla – That Rambus editorial and technial analysis on the Gold yesterday was well done by him, and offered readers a number of fundamental points about gold as an asset class. Thanks again for sharing it.

        I also “hope” Gold decides to break above it’s 6 month downtrend channel, and moves up higher here in the seasonably strong 1st quarter of the year (like it has the last 5 years). However, I am also fine if get’s deflected down by the upper part of the range and heads lower into the high $1800s, as my interest is purely in the Gold miners, and most good producers or solid development projects are doing well at an $1800-$1900j+ gold price. Of course a move back into the high $1900s or north of $2000 would energize the mining stocks further.

        Ever Upward!

          Jan 06, 2021 06:03 AM

          Gold futures at $1961
          Silver futures at $27.95
          Copper futures at $3.69

          Those are solid prices that should continue to underpin more upside movement in the PM miners. Gold producers at $1960 are printing money, and the same thing with Silver producers at $27-$28. I’m interested to see the producers 4th quarter operations reports, but so far Q1 of 2021 is off to a nice start as well.

          Jan 06, 2021 06:40 AM

          Yep good thoughts Ex. As Ive stated in the past my perspective is merely based from a physical backdrop as that is all I hold now. But they often go hand in hand.

    Jan 06, 2021 06:38 AM

    (ORE) (ORZCF) Orezone Gold Selects Lycopodium as EPCM Contractor and Provides Bomboré Project Development Update

    January 5, 2021

    “Orezone Gold Corporation is pleased to announce that it has taken several key steps in advancing its 90% owned Bomboré Gold Project towards project construction.”

      Jan 06, 2021 06:53 AM

      Still playing orezone through the warrants for greater leverage

        Jan 06, 2021 06:07 AM

        I’ve got an ever growing Orezone position as it’s shares keep appreciating.

        Last year I added to it twice in late March, then added 2 more tranches in May, sold a tranche in August, and bought it back in September. At that point I had a very nice allocation to it, and have just been in hold mode with Orezone.

        I’ve been very impressed as they’ve continued to hit their milestones and execute on their strategy for the last few years now, and they are still a very likely takeover candidate by one of the larger miners. If Endeavour mining hadn’t just acquired Teranga, then I felt either of those companies would have been good suitors.

          Jan 06, 2021 06:10 AM

          B2Gold could also be a good buyer, and maybe even Resolute Mining. I used to think Semafo would be a good suitor, but then Endeavour Mining bought them out last year. Endeavour Mining has really been growing through acquisition and is clearly one of the Majors now.

    Jan 06, 2021 06:41 AM

    (GENM) (GENMF) Generation Mining Announces Additional High-Grade Results From Marathon Drilling

    @nasdaq on 5 Jan 2021

    “Generation Mining Limited is pleased to announce final results from its 12-hole, 5,068-metre exploration drill program focused on the down-dip western extension of the W Horizon portion of the Marathon Palladium Deposit which is currently the subject of a Feasibility Study. The 2020 exploration drilling results will not be incorporated in the Feasibility Study, which is ongoing and should be released during the first quarter of 2021.”

    Jan 06, 2021 06:46 AM

    (ANX) (ANXGF) Anaconda Mining Reports Further Near Surface Infill Drill Results at Goldboro, Including 871.23 g/t Gold over 0.5 metres, 47.87 g/t Gold over 1.5 metres and 20.08 g/t Gold over 2.4 metres

    Jan 5, 2020

    Jan 06, 2021 06:50 AM

    (QMX) (QMXGF) QMX Gold Intersects 185.0m of 2.16 g/t Au In-Pit and 11.2m of 10.88 g/t Au at Depth at Bonnefond

    by @nasdaq on 5 Jan 2021

    Jan 06, 2021 06:58 AM

    XAU has broken out of a big bull flag and is ready to take out fork resistance just above:

    For all you holders of royalty companies, the group has a poor risk-reward profile now, especially when compared with the silver and gold miners. For example, EMX, RZZ, and MTA are currently massively overbought with quarterly RSI(14) readings of 79, 81, and 87, respectively.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:12 AM

      Noted Matthew. Thanks for sharing.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:35 PM

      As was mentioned several times up above by the royalties holder you were posting with before writing that….

      > On January 5, 2021 at 2:57 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “Yeah, I agree with you that holding FNV or RGLD in a blazing bull market will come with opportunity cost, and also agree that most of the quality mining stocks will outperform the larger royalty companies as things unfold.”

      “Having said that, companies like Metalla, or Ely, or EMX have really run hard, and will likely start losing ground to the Gold miners over time from current levels.”

      > On January 5, 2021 at 5:15 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “Lastly, I never stated or indicated that the royalty companies would keep outperforming the miners into the future, and in fact, stated several times now that I agree with you that they’ve gotten a bit lofty in valuation, and that moving forward the miners will likely outperform.”

      > On January 5, 2021 at 5:20 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “To make it crystal clear, I am not saying that outperformance will continue, as I expect the miners will begin to outperform most of the royalty companies moving forward.”

      > On January 5, 2021 at 6:53 pm,
      Excelsior says:

      “Now, at this point, yes Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, so I liquidated a big piece of my position in MTA yesterday and today…”

      “I’ll say it for the 4th or 5th time, that moving forward, I’d expect the miners to outperform the royalty companies during bullish phases,”

      > On January 6, 2021 at 12:17 am,
      Excelsior says:

      “Agreed, and I stated up above that Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, which is why I sold a big chunk yesterday and today.”
      “I am looking to deploy those funds into Gold & Silver Producers, and am just trying to figure out which positions I want to top up.”

        Jan 06, 2021 06:28 PM

        Just so you know, being massively overbought is far more important than being overvalued since the latter rarely means anything to the average investor. In addition, the vast majority of investors aren’t nearly as good at valuing a company properly anyway. Especially in the mining space. Furthermore, in a bull market, valuations can remain very high for very extended periods. This is not only due to sentiment; it is also because the factors driving the bull market tend to continually improve so the market gets trained to price-in improvements and, eventually, to do so generously since the bull keeps the rewards coming in despite questionable prices being paid. In this sector, the metals are an obvious improving factor. A few months, then years of big moves up will get the herd to price-in future moves that aren’t going to happen.

        Being massively quarterly overbought as MTA is, can also persist longer than seems probable or reasonable but that makes sense given the scale of a quarterly chart. What would concern me about such an overbought reading is that the condition of the big chart is everything in a bull market. It’s the foundation that protects and even rescues you from ugly looking shorter term charts. I pointed out in 2016, and since, that during a powerful trending move, the daily chart can turn overbought and dangerous looking yet still power higher as long as the bigger charts look good. In fact, before 2016, Claude Resources kicked a lot of investors off itself because of that phenomenon. It actually had several daily chart corrections following perfect MACD sell signals in which price still motored higher, just a little less steeply. Price cruised higher until each short term correction was over and then it resumed it’s usual steeper assents. The royalty plays in question are the opposite. They’re “spent” on the big charts even if they might look fine/good on the smaller ones. Their bull markets are mature and, relative to the miners, probably ending. “Relative to” is important because they may still go higher in dollars along with the sector and the metals but they could easily plunge at the same time versus a lot of good miners, probably the majority.

        Today, we’re already seeing the type of situation I described. A lot of daily charts are starting to look a little riskier than many are comfortable with but the biggest charts are far from a problem while the ever-important weekly charts are freshly bullish. So perceived risk is quite high to most people but actual risk is significantly lower. Famous last words? Maybe, but I doubt it. “Wall of worry” is all it is and thank goodness for it.

          Jan 07, 2021 07:36 AM

          That’s a good point about the daily overbought reading looking scary and possibly throwing off traders, in comparison to looking at indicators like the RSI or MACD on the longer dated charts like the monthly, or in this case the quarterly.

          Yes, these indicators can stay overbought longer than investors are prepared for in a bull market, and I was thrown off Claude back in the day in 2016 for just that reason. Sometimes it is wise to back up to longer dated charts for indicators on overbought/oversold conditions, as the daily’s can give false signals.

          I’ve already sold my MTA position on Monday & Tuesday, so maybe I was a bit hasty and do mostly look at daily & weekly charts, but still feel it’s valuation was getting lofty in comparison to other peer royalty companies on a few different metrics. Thomas posted an article from Seeking Alpha that came to a similar conclusion.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:45 AM

            Today I put the Metalla proceeds into beefing up my Ely Gold Royalties position (as a smaller cap royalty play in Nevada further down the foodchain than MTA) and my Endeavour Silver position for leverage to rising Silver prices and their mine turn-arounds and lowering costs.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:50 AM

            I did leave a tiny tracking position (15% of the initial position in MTA), which is something I sometimes do just to keep it as an allocated position in my portfolio, and as a base to build off if the setup changes over time.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:09 AM

            Another interesting things about Endeavour Mining, is just recently broke above it’s 2016 high for the first time, and if it can take a run at the 2014 high of 6.21, then it should have a nice move higher until the trough from 2012 of the $7.70-$7.80 region. After that I moves towards double digits. So it may not move up as much as the smaller producers, developers, or explorers, but those funds in Metalla, were marked as more conservative, and that’s another reason I picked Ely and Endeavour.

            Jan 07, 2021 07:59 AM

            I’d bet your hasty sale of MTA will prove to be a good thing. Yes, it might not fall right away or could even continue to rise, but the bargains in other plays would’ve disappeared had you waited, even on a relative basis because of their better technical pictures.

    Jan 06, 2021 06:34 AM

    Overall the last 2 days have been a very positive start for the Silver Explorers and Developers.

    Lots of nice action in the Ag Jrs today, and with silver heading up to $27.95 in overnight trading, the miners should respond nicely if there is follow through into Wednesday’s trading session.

    Symbol – Silver Explorers & Developers – Daily Change %
    AZT.V Aztec Minerals Corp. +21.05%
    ASLM American Silver Mining Co. +20.86%
    PLA.V Plata Latina Minerals Corporation +14.29%
    TM.V Trigon Metals Inc. +13.51%
    SNG.V Silver Range Resources Ltd. +11.11%
    G1A.AX Galena Mining Limited +9.68%
    ZFR.V Zephyr Minerals Ltd. +9.09%
    EQTY.V Equity Metals Corporation +8.77%
    GRSL.V GR Silver Mining Ltd. +8.54%
    CLZ.V Canasil Resources Inc. +8.33%
    ELO.V Eloro Resources Ltd. +7.95%
    SLV.CN Silver Dollar Resources Inc. +7.32%
    SVG.V Silver Grail Resources Ltd. +7.32%
    MMN.V Monarca Minerals Inc. +6.45%
    VML.V Viscount Mining Corp. +6.41%
    AUU.V Gold79 Mines Ltd. +6.25%
    SXL.V Slam Exploration Ltd. +6.25%
    CCM.TO Canagold Resources Ltd. +4.94%
    CD.V Cantex Mine Development Corp. +4.44%
    SVE.V Silver One Resources Inc. +4.11%
    BRC.V Blackrock Gold Corp. +3.88%
    MSV.TO Minco Silver Corporation +3.70%
    BCM.V Bear Creek Mining Corporation +3.47%
    OCG.V Outcrop Gold Corp. +3.28%
    NUAG.V New Pacific Metals Corp. +2.65%
    AXU Alexco Resource Corp. +2.14%
    CMB.V CMC Metals Ltd. +2.04%
    NBR.V Nubian Resources Ltd. +1.75%
    VZLA.V Vizsla Resources Corp. +1.73%
    AZS.V Arizona Silver Exploration Inc. +1.39%
    MAG.TO MAG Silver Corp. +0.86%
    MTR.L Metal Tiger plc +0.33%
    KTN.V Kootenay Silver Inc 0.00%
    ELEF.TO Silver Elephant Mining Co 0.00%
    BBB.V Brixton Metals Corp. – 6.78%

    Jan 06, 2021 06:49 AM

    (SVM) Silvercorp Intersects a 1.58 Metre Interval Grading 17.08 g/t Gold, 301 g/t Silver and 18.66% Lead in a New Vein at the HPG Mine

    January 5, 2021

    Jan 06, 2021 06:57 AM

    (CVB) Compass Gold Announces Grant of Options

    @nasdaq on 5 Jan 2021 #MoreOptionsForOfficersAndConsultants (yeah!)

    “Compass Gold Corporation (TSX-V: CVB) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved the issuance of 1,126,000 options, which will vest over a period of three years, to officers, employees and consultants of the Company.”

    Jan 06, 2021 06:59 AM

    (BTU) BTU Provides New Year Update, Sets Out Exploration Plan & Round 1 Drill Program for 2021

    @accesswire on 5 Jan 2021

    Paul Wood, BTU CEO, said, “2020 has been a year of steady progress for BTU Metals despite the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. We have been very active on the ground, collecting extensive data through drilling, sampling, and geophysical surveys – consequently, we saw some of our most promising results to date including visible gold in a recent drill hole. We start the year with one of our strongest cash positions in our history and are excited to follow up on a number of high-priority gold targets, as well as getting back to testing the TNT target to take advantage of an expert’s geochemical-geophysical 3D interpretation of the polymetallic system.”

    Jan 06, 2021 06:02 AM

    Silver just broke through $28 (currently at $28.02) Looking good…

      Jan 06, 2021 06:49 AM

      Well, Silver sold off in early morning trading, down to $27.50. Still a great price for the Silver miners, but futures contracts coming under pressure as we get started with this media circus around the political theater in the USofA.

        Jan 06, 2021 06:53 AM

        Gold also selling off in the morning hours, from $1960 down to $1933.

        Jan 06, 2021 06:05 AM

        Circus is right……….Repubs on shaky ground…..Mcconnell, shot himself in the foot

          Jan 06, 2021 06:07 AM

          Peter Hug , out with a nice video….on the gold market going forward…..

            Jan 06, 2021 06:12 AM

            Thanks for the heads up OOTB.

            Georgia Runoffs result will have this impact on gold – Peter Hug

            Kitco News – Jan 5, 2021

            “Whether the Democrats or Republicans take the two Senate seats in Georgia will determine how much stimulus the economy will get, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals. ”


            Jan 06, 2021 06:16 AM

            I liked what Peter said on the cycles……I am readjusting after the next run up… two or three years……

            Jan 06, 2021 06:23 AM

            Yes, Peter is a sharp and rational guy, and I’ve always enjoyed getting his take on things.

          Jan 06, 2021 06:08 AM

          Dems won one of the Georgia Senate seats. There are insane crowds marching in Washington D.C. It’s gonna be a really big… show.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:10 AM

            Yes, they did,…..what a hoot, …..

            Jan 06, 2021 06:11 AM


            Jan 06, 2021 06:13 AM


            Jan 06, 2021 06:14 AM

            Not sure the sheeple , have figured out what just happened,….dems, for socialism , and perverted mind set….repubs rhinos, game as usual steal what you can, for as long as you can….

            Jan 06, 2021 06:20 AM

            Got to run……have a great day……

            Jan 06, 2021 06:21 AM

            Let’s get ready to tax the crap out of the sheeple, and then spend, spend, spend on social programs. Get out that pen for more stimulus, Green New Deals, and a few new states. Washington D.C. is up to bat first as a new state. Puerto Rico & Guam are on deck….

            Jan 06, 2021 06:24 AM

            You have a great day as well sir.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:26 AM

            Green new deal…….should be interesting for the other metals…

            Jan 06, 2021 06:27 AM

            Reminds me of Jimmy Carter days…… lol

            Jan 06, 2021 06:32 AM

            It may be a boon for some sectors like Green/Clean Energy (which has already had some nice moves recently in anticipation). As Thomas mentioned up in the blog, it may be a good time to look at adding more Battery Metals as well.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:41 AM

            Or adding one of my ceo stock picks. Greenlane renewable. Was a big winner for me in 2020 and I see 2021 being no different

            Jan 06, 2021 06:12 AM

            Next 4 years…….could see green machines, take off……..a lot of pork in those avenues…..just like before… the late 70’s
            only one difference……DOE….

    Jan 06, 2021 06:26 AM

    Bitcoin broke through $35,000 up 11% in overnight trading, but has pulled back a bit down to $34,930.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:09 AM

      I thought Keiser in his video…., with the idea, of halving of bitcoin, was very interesting…

        Jan 06, 2021 06:19 AM

        Yes, he was saying it was the inverse of ponzi scheme because every halving results in fewer and fewer Bitcoins paid out to miners on transactions as a reward, as the coins get scarcer and scarcer with less coins coming into circulation from mining as their ultimate limit is gradually approached. I remember at previous halvings there were wild gyrations, but over time the price has trended higher after each one. If nothing else it is interesting eh?

          Jan 06, 2021 06:22 AM

          Ditto……that one thing makes bitcoin , appealing to buy some ….

    Jan 06, 2021 06:31 AM
      Jan 06, 2021 06:41 AM

      Oops. I didn’t mean to put that $ sign on the Dollar Index. I’ll drop it off just like people are dropping their dollars.


    Jan 06, 2021 06:23 AM

    Gold update!

    Hey guys just as I have repeatedly mentioned, the correction/back filling of the right shoulder has started. I have tried my very best to prepare everyone with this outcome. It’s not the end of the world this was expected and if you listened carefully to glen right now your in a very good position. I also mentioned the 6 th as an inflection point and possible correction for right shoulder. It’s not Armageddon it’s only back filling and it ain’t going down forever. My targets have all been given five or take.

    Remember guys, it’s not forever up lol. There will be corrections/consolidations/back filling and accumulation. The general consensus remains up and up we will go in due time.


      Jan 06, 2021 06:29 AM

      Yep, things were running up nicely in overnight trading and then got the smack down in early morning trading. Let the backing and filling begin. I’m glad I did some trimming of profits on Monday and Tuesday, as mentioned, as those funds raised may come in handy to go shopping if any good sales show up in the miners.

      Right now the metals prices are still really in a good spot, and the larger bull trend is still nicely intact, so no it won’t be Armageddon, but just a pause that refreshes.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:39 AM

      Hey Glen,……..what was you bottom number…..thanks …..
      I just ducked back in…after reading another demwhit gets the nod….

        Jan 06, 2021 06:40 AM

        dang computer…..your….

        Jan 06, 2021 06:47 AM

        > On January 5, 2021 at 11:04 am,
        Glenfidish says:

        “Right shoulder formation back and forth whipsaw action should and may possibly go down to $1850-$1880.. imo of course”


          Jan 06, 2021 06:50 AM

          Thank EXGLENFISH…… da Men…. 🙂

            Jan 06, 2021 06:52 AM

            1850 …..I can live with that….. 🙂

            Jan 06, 2021 06:53 AM
            Jan 06, 2021 06:02 AM


            Thanks ex yes that’s the targets I see possible. Again nothing to worry about here just up and down up and down lol and once completed it’s going to be spectacular. I’m just glad I bought in at the lows as I was left out early in the previous intermediate cycle low. This time around got in with much better positioning.

            All the best ex and Jerry

            Let’s get through this and then forever up to the targets we have which are much higher.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:15 AM

            Yes, positioning well, gives one more wiggle room during the chop.

            My plan is to shop, if it drops, because I trimmed near a small top.

            Ever Upward!

            Jan 06, 2021 06:38 AM

            THANK YOU GENTLEMEN…………..Appreciate ALL THE GREAT EFFORT AND WORK, for Free of course…… You will be well rewarded……

    Jan 06, 2021 06:46 AM

    Rafael Warnock, (Al Sharpton on meth) won a Georgia Senate seat. Send in the clowns…

      Jan 06, 2021 06:40 AM

      Coverage,……on at the political section…..circus , you are correct…..

        Jan 06, 2021 06:23 AM

        You will see what Pence is made of within the first hour….of the counting….
        and will know the direction…Fraud and Cover Up Supreme….

          Jan 06, 2021 06:50 AM

          Pence’s parents used to live on my street, less than 100 yards away. I always believed Mike to be honest, but a bit of a whimp. I never thought he would make governor of Indiana, much less V.P.U.S.
          I always thought of him as easy going, offend no one type of person….not a leader who could make hard decisions.
          I have no idea what he will do today, or what pressure he is now under.

            Jan 06, 2021 06:52 AM

            Wimp……….and leadership come out early in life…….constrained by his nature when born, seldom changed….HOPE I AM WRONG…..Today, will decide IF HE GETS TO KEEP THE TRUMPSTER”S SUPPORTERS……REAL SIMPLE…
            Understand he is leaving the country , immediately , after the counting…..

    Jan 06, 2021 06:15 AM

    Inverse of Dollar may have topped.
    Supports the Glenfidish projection.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:32 AM

      Per Larry Pessavento:
      2008 13 2021
      2000 21 2021
      1987 34 2021
      1966 55 2021
      1932 89 2021

    Jan 06, 2021 06:56 AM

    Well done Glen! It seems you hit it on the head. Back and fill is here.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:24 AM


      Thank you kindly and this is the fuel that keeps me going and working hard at it to share with the ker family!


    Jan 06, 2021 06:08 AM

    Glen, you are unbelievable! In my 14 years of following almost every notable “analyst” in the PM community I have never encountered someone like Glen. Glen, you have predicted tops and bottoms with uncanny accuracy. Please keep sharing your hard work here.

      Jan 06, 2021 06:30 AM

      This is one of the kindest things ever said to me and it’s very humbling, gratifying and rewarding. Those are some very kind words my friend. Thank you 👊and much respect to you.

      I want to mention that I make mistakes and have made many when I came to the ker. I’ve grown tremendously and have challenged myself and charting and technical analysis and refined or fine tuned things throughout the years. But last year I took it to another level and enough can’t be said about who the professor has been to me. Matthew has worked with me behind the scenes and my foundation has Matthew written all over it. I have now tried to refine glen and add my own learning combined with him and I’m doing wonderful things and I know it won’t always look pretty but being on the winning side more often is what counts. Learn learn learn from the best and it will come together for you all.

      Don’t fret guys this is nothing more then back filling and right shoulder formation. Blow up the chart in gold and you can see what I’m looking at..

      Thanks again Norra


        Jan 06, 2021 06:42 AM

        Dear Glen. I will need to cash in on some of my miners in the spring as I need to raise cash to complete a small real estate project that I will be selling. I know that you have written that you expect the next cycle to top in May. Do you still hold that opinion?

          Jan 06, 2021 06:15 AM


          I don’t want to get Into the business of financial planning and thank you for giving me such respect. So this is not advice as to sell or buy. Yes my target for intermediate cycle top would have us match or April top. I will get a better grasp at it the closer we get there. I’m looking at a 4/5 month move upward from its bottom.


        Jan 06, 2021 06:38 PM

        Glen, you rock! Your calls have been spot on and I have appreciated your willingness to share your insights with the Ker Family. Major kudos on your canny ability!

        You are right about Matthew… he is a technical charting top shelf guru!

          Jan 06, 2021 06:51 PM


            Jan 06, 2021 06:52 PM

            Great to have a group , of people to trust…….and appreciate……

            Jan 06, 2021 06:44 PM

            Thanks Jerry 👊😁

            Jan 06, 2021 06:54 PM


          Jan 06, 2021 06:43 PM

          Thank you canucksi,

          Much appreciated 👊

    Jan 06, 2021 06:50 AM

    Gold might have to fill that gap up at about 1980-90.

    Jan 06, 2021 06:51 AM

    oops, 1880-90