A focus on the 1+million oz gold development companies that continue to get sold off
Brian Leni, Founder and Editor of The Junior Stock Review joins us to focus on a section of the gold stocks that has been sold of with the sector but actually carries fundamental value. These are the companies that have a 1+million ounce deposit but the market doesn’t seem to care. There is a wide variety of these stocks so Brian shares what he looks for to isolate the best companies in this group.
When $bpgdm drops to 5 or lower, The PM stocks always hit the bottom. See every prior low. Its 20 currently, so more damage can happen. Its that simple. All sentiment driven.
The BPGDM has not dropped below a reading of 5 once in the last 6 years, and all the other bottoms were much higher levels than that, so not really sure where you are getting your readings from.
The lowest bottoms in the last half dozen years, since this bull market started were at 7.14 and 7.69. Keep in mind that the 7.69 reading synched up with the Pandemic Crash of March 2020.
The 2016 major bottom in gold mining stocks was at 13.79 on the BPGDM, so if folks were waiting for a 5 reading then, they’d still be waiting and would have missed the entire move higher.
Here are the rest of the low readings on the BPGDM index where miners made intermediate bottoms:
16.67, 17.86, 21.43, 23.08, 24.14, 32.14, and 34.48.
>>> So where in the world are getting the idea that BPGDM needs to drop to 5?
Here’s a BPGDM chart that shows the actual factual bottoms in it going back to the end of the bear market in 2015, and beginning of the bull market in 2016.
Ex,
Stockcharts shows a BPGDM reading of 0.00 during the middle of 2015. Is that correct?
In my opinion, US stocks need to be in a bear market for PM stocks to perform well.The last two gold bull runs were periods of horrible S&P 500 performance.
Yes, I guess it got down there in the very tail end of the bear market in PMs, but that didn’t mark the low in the PM miners. That low happened in January of 2016 and the BPGDM registered 13.79, so that was the bottom that mattered.
The point being that we are well within range now on the BPGDM for a bottom to form in the miners. Could it could lower… sure, but we are getting into the range sub 20 where bottoms can occur.
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah
A lot said, but nothing of substance revealed.
The pounding in the PMs continues.
The crushing, grinding lows will be the theme for awhile here.
Get used to it.
Just one question.
How much more can you take before you give in and sell?
Agreed. Absolutely useless interview and not a good look for the interviewee. He was at least honest to say he didn’t know, unlike other newsletter writers we know.
I got way more value from that interview with Brian than I did from either of your comments.
I thought it was a good interview…. JMO
Thanks OOTB. So did I. Brian is a sharp guy, and I like getting his take on how he is valuing the developers.
I posted it over at ceo.ca and got a few positive responses back right away, so people liked it. There are just a lot of complainers here, that like to comment only when they have something negative to say.
Most of these interviews get hundreds of listens, not including the podcast downloads from Apple, that also get retweeted or shared, so apparently somebody likes listening to these shows. 😉
Agree, he mentioned a specific stock then explained his thinking on it.
I find discussions that don’t point fingers at others but just make a point to educate or inform are more palatable. When the argument goes down the vindictive or negative path I go down the path to another post.
Are you talking to me Joe. If you are, consistently I repeated time and time on this blog, again I have a war chest a big bankroll ready to go if and that’s if, we have a bargain fire sale opportunity in the next couple months by year end at my discretion must be at least 20% to 30% off these prices.
Like I said Joe if you’ve been paying attention it’ll be a very very Merry Christmas the bigger the fire sale if it gets completely crushed I’ll be ecstatically happy.
That’s where all the money is made Joe that’s how I made fortunes all my life. Ha Ha
You buy when everything is being thrown away. There’s your 10 baggers.
And I’m not referring to corrections I’m talking about an outright fire bargain sale.
PERIOD comprendo
IS ANYONE HERE TODAY ! What about you Joe
If you weren’t referring to me regarding your comments Joe please disregard the above comments I never listen to the interviews very very rarely. I have no use for the jargon.
My comments can be referred to those that keep thinking this bull trend is going to go up from here maybe but there’s very powerful forces right now at work that says otherwise possibly. Short-term.
I’ve been selling continuously right through this mess…covered calls on my mining shares and making a few bucks, putting food on the table, having a Starbucks each morning, paying for the gym membership and some other creature comforts. I can wait it out.
Is the major factor that we are approaching a liquidity crises, perhaps catalysed by the Evergrande liquidity crises, co-incidental with the 8 year cycle low? Some think the low is in – others think it is to come later this year. I would really like to hear discussion on this topic!
Enjoying the banquets everyday 👍
Drive it !!! No pain no gain
Open up dem barn doors, I’m coming through.
Comment to TH above
The Canadian dollar looks great but is now dealing with resistance so it will be interesting to see if it needs to pull back before breaking out. It’s strength since Monday is definitely not a bad thing for our miners.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p88125109990&a=681313181
AUD could take a tumble, giving a boost to Aussie miners and other exporters.
A tumble would actually NOT be good since it is pretty well correlated with the moves of the gold miners just like the Canadian dollar. Which makes sense since money flows into those currencies before it flows into your miners and it makes more sense when you consider that a good time for resource-based economies should result in some relative strength in their currencies since it improves the balance sheets of those economies. Luckily, the Aussie dollar looks good and ready to go higher (not necessarily tomorrow but I won’t be surprised if it does).
Here’s the Australian dollar with the XAU and GDX overlaid:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=13&id=p29216421336&a=1013953199
(I can’t chart the Aussie gold miners index using stockcharts.)
Here it is with the Canadian dollar:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p00174005304&a=1013953199
Thanx for that comment Matthew……The comment about costs in the other currency based effects on miners is a big deal…As they strengthen their currency their biggest cost oil/energy goes down and margins go up….I am reacting to this jewel because no one else did and should have…glta….The way you stated it I never pondered…Their currencies actually do moves a bit ahead of their miners sector…./GC looks to regain most before midnight…good!
Larry, I hope you’re right about GC. With 5 trading days left in the month and quarter, the action from here will be telling. Some support was retested today, including the 2 year MA…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32399295226&a=903805792
The problem is/are the cycles…My charts are shut off…but we are due for a major seasonal cycle December/January….They can be very market influential…my2
The thing about major cycles is that they often seem to expand or contract significantly and probably because of the effects of shorter cycles within the major ones. I’m no cycles expert but have seen many run into problems with their methods. Either way, it seems we are still due for at least a short term low soon.
Thanks, I’ve been listening to Aussie politicians commentary on the AUD for too long.
Listening to politicians is always very risky!
I just noticed that the Canadian dollar closed one cent below its one year MA today. Such close calls are not rare and often happen because the market is “respecting” a technical level, in this case, the one year moving average (one year = 253 trading days).
gold limping into the close, basically flat for the week in spite of all the consternation. a retest of march / aug lows a heartbeat away as is a close at the 1800 level. Waste of time and money guessing which way. Let it play its hand in the price action.
Spx in deja vu all over again mode, with its monthly profit taking and rebound apparently for another marginal new high. Then rinse and repeat???
Sell some in the money options, rinse and repeat.
Good idea….look at the weekly chart…gold is in the middle of a consolidation …high around 178 low around 157 on gld…that is all…..instruments do three things…rally, sell-off, consolidate….no big deal….glta
The HUI has finally reached its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move that began at the covid crash low but might still need to reach the 200 week MA before turning (along with GDX).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85409215213&a=949257852
It will likely drop below the 200 WMA and tag the 500 WMA. The 400 WMA is also a target and of course it can always overshoot any of these MAs significantly before rebounding.
I said this over a month ago while you remained bullish. You also said in early September that GDX was poised to outperform DIA. That ratio broke to a new low today. Someday the miners will turn, but you have been catastrophically wrong with your bullish bias for months now. All you are doing is encouraging longs to hang on, which will make the capitulation all the more extreme when it finally does come.
Catastrophically? Maybe you’re projecting. We are still in the same long bottoming process as a month ago, and so far, GDX has only made a modest new low vs stocks or dollars, but more importantly, I did say a MONTH ago that I did not want to see the big gap filled and that even revisiting the area of the gap would be a bad sign. Someone said they didn’t want to see a new low for GDX and I replied that I don’t even want to see it go below 31.29, which is almost 5% above today’s close. Many have been selling and selling short since last week’s break to lows below the March low. Selling such breaks is a fundamental part of most chartist’s discipline and should be at least considered on a case-by-case basis. I am not selling and I do not share that to get you or anyone to do anything.
I give a real time look at at what’s good and what’s not, supports and resistances, but many here only seem to hear “buy, buy, buy” because that’s what they want to hear. Or maybe they truly do hear that since I’m not as scared as they are. I have said repeatedly that I have a high risk tolerance and even that my predictions are for fun. On top of that, I have said more than a couple times that I am wrong all the time. You will never hear that from others here who are wrong more than I am.
Market action should be acted on. That’s why I include charts to possibly help with one’s decision making. Most others here only give opinions backed by nothing and can’t recognize any lows, no matter how “textbook” they are.
GDX vs DIA gave a weekly MACD sell signal a year ago and then a weekly MACD buy signal in April (after I identified the March low in the miners). Then it gave another weekly MACD sell signal in July, which is still intact. You can ignore everyone and play those buys and sells like Jack Chan or even play the much more numerous daily MACD buys/sells if you want to be more aggressive. Why do you think I always circle or otherwise draw attention to such objective chart developments as MACD buys/sells in addition to many other items?
You can also use impulse legs or some kind of system but you should not act on the predictions found here or anywhere unless you understand the risks. You would have missed every big rally had you followed Doc AND would have been very long for the 2013 gold crash. As usual, now that the market is correcting, everyone seems to have forgotten his record completely.
You obviously need to think about what support/resistance means to you and the preservation of your capital. Again, I show my work constantly for a reason.
Risk averse types should have exited or hedged 3 months ago using this clear signal:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76967244105&a=1031377993
One last thing, I have also pointed out repeatedly that I speculate in tiny cap miners much differently than the large and liquid miners and ETFs which I trade actively.
The loonie is resources sensitive currency and is one of many positive indicators.
A rally certainly isn’t negative for the gold space. Regardless, if we don’t bottom here very soon in the gold space most likely the odds are at least 85% we bottom by later November and early December time frame. Give or take a few weeks maybe into the first part of next year. All speculation we’ll see how it all plays out. Really, this is not the time of year for a bottom that comes towards November December at the earliest. Most of the time that’s how these play out when the mining shares are so depressed this time of year.
Now’s the time for QQQ to resume its fall if it is going to. Monday’s gap has been filled and today’s close was below its pre-gap close…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p86854039801&a=1030012501
Based on the rest of the stock market’s action, I wouldn’t count on the bears having their way with the NASDAQ 100.
I see you are being extra careful to qualify your predictions (“…if it is going to”) now that you have been humbled (or at least you should be feeling humbled), which makes them particularly worthless.
Lol, you’re imagining things. Nothing has changed about the way I post.
Matt, it’s not your missed calls at issue, there is nobody in history who can claim otherwise including Doc. it’s your insistence on your calls as sacrosanct backed by boilerplate market garble which doesn’t hold on a repeated basis.
That’s nonsense but you believe it because you don’t understand the charts, especially the pitchforks that you foolishly have a problem with. Decent people would ask questions before behaving the way you do. Not all forks are created equal, not by a long shot and I have discussed the ways in which you would go about assessing whether or not they are working. The funny thing is, you don’t know a good one from a bad one and obviously don’t know what to do when price goes beyond ANY support/resistance level, fork or otherwise. Am I supposed to send out alerts even though I’m just another commenter like anyone else and do not do this for money?
It is pertinent food for thought that there are always those who expect the impossible from anyone who has an opinion about the markets. For example, some knock the “low” success rates of newsletter writers’ predictions yet don’t have any idea what an impressive success rate even is. How logical is that? In addition, the same bunch will even knock the predictions of newsletter writers who don’t sell predictions, like Michael Oliver or Rick Ackerman. Those guys couldn’t have more different approaches but neither sells predictions even though they both sometimes put forth their own guesses about the future during interviews.
could you explain the docs monthly bollinger band method for trading?…humm…You like that method right…lmao…….let me even see the chart for these chartless calls…i do not remember one call that has been correct…no entries or exits mentioned…just vague responses…nibbling here a bit…on your toe…lmao🔊🤡🎉😜
Since some people are clueless, that QQQ chart by itself would leave me more confident about that a bearish outcome is likely but the SPY, DIA and IWM (Russell 2000) charts make me neutral or even bullish if I had to choose (that is, bullish the stock market IN GENERAL).
If everything does plunge despite 3 of the 4 looking pretty good, it would tell me that maybe QQQ is now the leader and is therefore giving off the better signal. However, it topped last of the four so maybe the worst case is that it will just correct further by itself while the others continue to diverge. I’m sure you’ll have “fun” with it either way.
I bought more Kootenay Silver today.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p56565031566&a=708378089
ktn, a very small Junior in the mining sector space probably will bottom before everything else because it’s such a specialized type investment with small audience of insiders and investors. I’ve seen them run many times when gold was down and surprise, they’re just making gangbuster moves. They don’t care where the futures are trading in silver and gold sometimes.
Kootenay is finally looking attractive here—-I would like to see one final cathartic plunge and then I’ll avail myself of it.
Good point Doc. I have a partial position in Kootenay, and was reviewing it today to see if I wanted to throw another log on the fire, but decided to wait to see if Silver breaks down through $22 before getting too much more aggressive with adding to Silver optionality and drill plays. If $22 breaks, then a move to $19 is back on the menu, and that won’t be a good thing for the Silver miners. Maybe it can hold $22 though and get back up more in the middle of its $22-$29 range.
Unfortunately, Ex, 22 is at high risk of being broken over the next month.
Yeah Doc, that’s why I’m holding out to see what happens in Silver pricing first, before adding more silver mining stock positions. There are a number of technicians and commentators that believe $22 may give way to $19.
As someone heavily invested in the silver miners already, that would definitely sting some, but like Christopher Aaron mentioned in his segment last week, he sees a move down to $19 Silver one more time as a generational buying opportunity. We’ll see how it goes…
Doc – We should team up again soon for another segment where we line up a few stocks to discuss, and I’ll throw out a few fundamentals that catch my eye, and you can give us the technical outlook on them for the shorter term and longer term.
Let me know if you want to a segment like that sometime in the next week or two. Cheers!
Thursday Quality : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
PMs: My buys Tuesday, sans volume spike.
LitBatt: Positive Saturation coming?
PGMs: Little engines that might.
Uranium: Sloping northward?
Gold stomped again.
Probably going to get crushed again tomorrow, along with the rest of this market as contagion from Evergrande becomes more apparent.
Monday is probably going to be a bad day.
Why haven’t you sold yet?
“Say it ain’t so, Joe!”
Why haven’t you sold yet ?
Joe, why is this question being asked so many times and who is it being directed at because it’s always at the bottom of my comments. Maybe I mistaken that this is not a direct question that you’re asking me to answer.
Joe, what is he good fo?
Love Brian Leni, Thanks!
Thanks Tommy. Cory & I think a great deal of Brian Leni as well, and it is always nice to get his take on the mining stocks.
BTW – Nice to see you slumming it over here with us here at the KE Report. 🙂
Cheers amigo!
Dollar : https://tinyurl.com/df9wukns
Climbing. Upside gap closing.
Dollar reflections abound:
On 14 Sept the TLT topped at MaxSat(7)
then collapsed after Wednesday’s head-fake higher.
Is Oil About To Breakout Of Its Long-Term Downtrend?
Jesse Felder – September 22, 2021
“There is a compelling case to be made for favoring value stocks today. Among those, the energy sector remains the most compelling by a long shot. In addition to being cheap, it’s really the only sector within the broad market where insiders continue to be very bullish (the broad market, in contrast, continues to be sold by the smartest of the smart money). So it would appear that insiders believe oil prices are likely to breakout above critical resistance represented by the upper trend line of its long-term downtrend channel.”
“It’s also very encouraging to see commercial hedgers in crude oil futures actually cover their short positions (or hedge less) as oil prices rise. This is fairly unusual. Just by glancing at the chart below, it’s apparent that hedgers typically add to shorts (hedge more of their production) when prices rise and vice versa. The fact that they are actually adding exposure as prices have risen over the past year or so would appear to be a signal that they, too, are betting on a breakout higher in oil prices…”
https://thefelderreport.com/2021/09/22/is-oil-about-to-breakout-of-its-long-term-downtrend/
Stifel FirstEnergy’s Fitzmartyn: Oil and gas investors in for a feast of cash and capital returns:
BNN Bloomberg – Sept 23, 2021
“Robert Fitzmartyn, managing director and head of energy institutional research at Stifel FirstEnergy, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk on the large amounts of excess cash oil and gas producers have been collecting amid strong commodity prices.”
Now that’s a great couple of paragraphs, thanks. I’ve had my eye on PBR for some time, waiting for Schachter scenario to play out and a better price.
For all but especially for Ex and HG:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n26dCmch-Bk
Interview starts at about 1:45 in the clip. This is a real bond guy being interviewed and he is painting a picture that things are not quite what the media is saying. Hope you found this as informative as I did –
Great clip.. Thanks..Mike!!
👍👍Thanks Mike. I never listen to msn. I don’t care for watching paint dry and grass grow.
In fact, no one’s going disclose just how critical things are. Everyone, including those on this blog are obtuse and imperceptive as to the dire consequences that are in the pipeline leading to major collateral damages of monumental proportions.
With that being said, I’m just about exhausted all my efforts here on this blog with all the toxicity. Lacking any fortitude and courage including a mindless disposition in character to acknowledge the truth faced with highly perilous cataclysmic events possibly in the very near future. We passed the Rubicon long ago and the day of reckoning is staring everyone in the face. Don’t spoil the party though, because if you say anything right away everyone lives in this disbelief that we will get through this with no major consequences. Life will go on I will be able to enjoy all my conveniences and The Good Life. 🤞X infinity.
There’s not going to be very much left of America once the demolition is completed. Could be much sooner than later. The really pathetic reality of this time we live in 98% of the population doesn’t have any recollection or idea what THE END GAME is.
THEY REFUSE TO WAKE UP OUT OF THIS MAKE BELIEVE WORLD
98% of population that’s an optimistic percentage I’m being very liberal.
IT’S GOING TO BE TOO TOO TOO LATE !!!! Misery will find them. Will be no escape.
SUFFERING BEYOND HUMAN IMAGINATION oh no, that’s installing fear.
is it ????? Refusing to do any critical thinking. Listening to everyone else.
THAT WILL BE EVERYONE’S FATE. Refusing arrogantly and never coming to the truth
HG – I would urge you not to assume sites like Real Vision and grant-williams.com are MSM. Sadly both are paid services so it isn’t easy to see for yourself. I subscribe to both at the lowest level, but I subscribe because they give me a very different view of the world than MSM. Now how much of that information is immediately actionable I simply can not say. I see them as alternative learning and they expose me to lots of stuff MSM never does. In essence they tear away the veil that hides high finance reality from the masses. Do they have issues – yes, especially Real Vision where some folks are huge fans of Crypto, but they also have folks that think Crypto is yet another ponzi scheme headed to oblivion. Grant Williams has had some stunning interviews recently. One which is behind a pay wall is with Daniel Want of Prerequisite Capital Management. It had me feeling like I was a Freshman in an Advanced Biochem lecture or when I started writing C code – that is where I learned that sometimes you have to suspend disbelief. I know that the content is real but it takes effort to understand the significance of what he is saying. My initial take away was that because of the Fed’s actions the world has changed and you can’t view the investing world in the old way. Today concepts of value aren’t relevant, it is all about momentum but one day they will be relevant again and that is when the Tesla’s of the world will be toast. It left me questioning all preconceived notions about what to do next.
Thanks Mike there was a misunderstanding there I was trying to communicate the fact that I don’t tune in the news channels mainstream media blah blah. The alternate sources your referring to are fine. I don’t follow either one of them because there’s an enormous amount of alternative information and analysis etc. And thank you, I do appreciate you sharing those I just could never possibly tune into everything. Quite frankly Mike, I do my own analysis in a thorough forensic type fashion white glove type of strategies eliminating all the noise and micromanaging everything. Although, we do need to get information with many sources, I try explicitly to do my own independent thinking. I discovered that conventional wisdom is useless.
I believe I’m light years ahead of the crowd not being smug about it because there’s much proof if people would just receive it.
All the best and my apologies for the misunderstanding I don’t know what happened I know we read these comments really quick and that can happen quite often and I know I’ve had that happen just recently. Not going to mention any names. Regardless, it’s all triviality and those things happen all the time. It’s the only reasonable to understand that it’s going to and will happen.
Thanks for that post Mike. Yes, the reaction in the bond markets have been quite turbulent lately, especially on the back of the recent Fed statements.
I really enjoy most of the content that Real Vision puts out, and this was another solid segment. Much appreciated!
EX – the thing that hit me about that interview was that he was saying things aren’t nearly as beautiful as the mass media say they are and that if you scratch the surface you can see it. For me it was a bit of an antidote to the idea that all of “us” commodities investors are barking up the wrong tree.
The markets are weird – they just go with the flow until some shit happens then they launch in a new direction. Right now the idea is that the Fed has it all under control and just view stocks as momentum trades and you will do good. No need to bother with value investing just buy stuff that is moving. But “we” invest in the metals/miners because we believe that the Fed doesn’t have it all under control and one day soon that will be painfully obvious to all concerned.
Yes, good thoughts Mike. As for things not being as beautiful as the main stream financial media say they are…. well, I thought we covered every day here at the KE Report. Agreed of course, and that is the whole case for the Precious Metals as insurance against the ongoing financial mismanagement and the coming storms on the horizon.
As for commodities in general, they’ll do just fine as inflation keeps ratcheting higher in the medium to longer term, and things like battery metals and energy commodities (Copper, Nickel, Oil, Lithium, Uranium, etc…) will do just fine as the electrification of the world, the EVs market acceptance, the need for batteries and energy storage, and the transition to clean energy sources (that still require many resources) will continue for the foreseeable future.
Anybody remember a documentary from 10-15 years ago titled “March of the Penguins”
Some symbolism in that movie related to this gold market.
I think , I remember seeing that one….
Gold, cold as Ice…. Penguins never freeze, and neither does gold…. lol….
Have a great FRIDAY and WEEK END…..
But, all joking aside, … I think I get your point…
Tenacity, perseverance, qualities of the penguin that are needed here.
Yes….
Most important, if anyone is trying to get ahead, smack ’em down hard. 🙁
LOL… ha, ha… good one….. 🙂
Those who arrogantly blatantly disdainfully proud attitude of superiority claim that we’ve made a bottom or very close to it at this point in time declaring this within days going all in might be biting off more than can chew. Markets are more than capable and quite frequently punish those with these belligerent attitudes we’ve bottomed right here and now in the gold space especially in gold mining shares. With my experience, several weeks too early possibly a couple months this time of year with tax loss selling season. Those that claim with great authority right now are asking to get their teeth kicked by this market. That’s what the gold space does best. Very few people walk away with their money and for that matter any kind of profits. 🤞 If we reverse this downtrend in gold mining shares consider yourself very lucky if you’re counting on a rebound right now and blatantly a market bottom here, right here and now.